Evaluation Study of Definitions, Gaps and Costs of Response Capacities for the Union Civil Protection Mechanism D7: Final Report 30 October 2019 Centre for Strategy and Evaluation Services LLP Westering House 17 Coombe Road Otford, Kent TN14 5RJ United Kingdom E: [email protected] T: +44 (0) 1959 525122 Contents Executive Summary i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose and scope of the report .................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research undertaken ..................................................................................................... 2 2 Context for the study 3 2.1 Development of the EU’s capacity to respond ................................................................ 3 2.2 EU approach to defining modules, setting capacity goals and measuring gaps ................. 4 2.3 EU approach to risk management ................................................................................... 5 3 Methodological framework for assessing capacity goals 9 3.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Event descriptions ........................................................................................................ 10 3.3 Planning assumptions .................................................................................................. 10 3.4 Capabilities .................................................................................................................. 12 3.5 Capacities and capacity goals ....................................................................................... 13 3.6 Modules ...................................................................................................................... 13 4 Redefinition of modules 14 4.1 Current response capacities ......................................................................................... 14 4.2 Overall findings ............................................................................................................ 15 4.3 Flooding ....................................................................................................................... 20 4.4 Drinking water ............................................................................................................. 23 4.5 Medical ........................................................................................................................ 23 4.6 Shelter ......................................................................................................................... 27 4.7 Forest fire fighting ........................................................................................................ 28 4.8 USAR............................................................................................................................ 29 4.9 CBRN ........................................................................................................................... 30 4.10 Medical evacuation ...................................................................................................... 32 4.11 Technical assistance and support teams (TAST) ............................................................ 33 5 Analysis of available risk assessments 35 5.1 Risks identified at national level ................................................................................... 35 5.2 Risks identified at international level ............................................................................ 37 5.3 Risks highlighted by UCPM activations .......................................................................... 38 6 Risk landscape and planning assumptions 40 6.1 Outline ......................................................................................................................... 40 6.2 Event descriptions ........................................................................................................ 40 6.3 Planning assumptions .................................................................................................. 46 7 Capabilities 50 7.1 Matrix of planning assumptions – capabilities ............................................................... 50 7.2 Discussion on Modules as capabilities .......................................................................... 55 8 Capacity goals 60 8.1 Revision of module capacity goals ................................................................................ 60 8.2 Revision of goals for experts and other capacities ......................................................... 66 8.3 Goals for new response capacities ................................................................................ 69 9 Capacity gap analysis 73 9.1 Gaps in relation to current goals ................................................................................... 73 9.2 Gaps in relation to revised goals ................................................................................... 76 9.3 Considerations on capabilities not mentioned in planning assumptions ........................ 79 10 Cost data 84 10.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 84 10.2 Development Costs ...................................................................................................... 84 10.3 Maintenance Costs ...................................................................................................... 85 10.4 Deployment Costs ........................................................................................................ 86 10.5 Summary of costs ......................................................................................................... 88 11 Conclusions 91 11.1 Main conclusions regarding the redefinition of existing response capacities ................. 91 11.2 Main conclusions regarding the analysis of costs .......................................................... 92 11.3 Main conclusions regarding the process of identifying capacity gaps and setting capacity goals .............................................................................................................. 93 11.4 Main conclusions regarding capacity gaps .................................................................... 94 11.5 Main conclusions regarding the revision of capacity goals............................................. 94 Annex 1: Proposed module revisions and redefinitions 96 Annex 2: Definitions of “Other Response Capacities” 103 Annex 3: Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems 109 Tables Table 1 Parameters of planning assumptions ....................................................................................... 11 Table 2 Modules currently defined in the 2014 or 2018 Implementing Decisions .............................. 14 Table 3 Matrix of UCPM capabilities required for events..................................................................... 51 Table 4 Revised capacity goals: existing modules ................................................................................. 61 Table 5 Capacity goals: new modules ................................................................................................... 62 Table 6 Modules considered as having limited relevance for EU deployments ................................... 63 Table 7 Revised goals for other response capacities ............................................................................ 67 Table 8 Access to Stockpiles.................................................................................................................. 69 Table 9 Access to Medical Counter Measures ...................................................................................... 70 Table 10 Capacity gaps in relation to the current goals ....................................................................... 73 Table 11 Capacity gaps in relation to the revised goals ........................................................................ 76 Table 12: Estimated development costs per module ........................................................................... 88 Table 13: Estimated maintenance costs per module............................................................................ 89 Table 14: Estimated deployment costs per module (transport by road) ............................................. 89 Table 15: Estimated costs for air transport of modules ....................................................................... 90 Table 16: Overview of proposed module deletions, revisions and redefinitions ................................. 96 Figures Figure 1 Comprehensive approach to risk assessment .......................................................................... 8 Figure 2 Information gap in the current approach to risk assessment ................................................... 8 Figure 3 Schematic overview of assessment framework ........................................................................ 9 Figure 4: Survey evidence on modules requiring redefinition .............................................................. 16 Figure 5 Risks identified in the national risk assessments .................................................................... 35 Figure 6 Evolution of hazards that lead to an activation of the UCPM ................................................ 38 Executive Summary Executive Summary Introduction This report is the final report of the Evaluation Study of Definitions,