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University of Cincinnati UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI DATE: July, 29, 2003 I, Ivan Maximov , hereby submit this as part of the requirements for the degree of: Doctor of Philosophy in: Geography It is entitled: Integrated Assessment of Climate and Land-use Change Effects on Hydrology and Water Quality of the Upper and Lower Great Miami River. Approved by: Dr. Susanna Tong Dr. Robert Frohn Dr. Nicholas Dunning Dr. James Goodrich INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER QUALITY OF THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT MIAMI RIVER A dissertation submitted to the Division of research and Advanced Studies Of the University of Cincinnati In partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of DOCTORATE OF PHILOSOPHY (Ph.D.) In the Department of Geography Of the College of Arts and Sciences 2003 by Ivan A. Maximov B.S., Moscow State University, 1995 M.S., Moscow State University, 1997 Committee Chair: Dr. Susanna Tong ABSTRACT In the next 50-100 years it is likely to expect changes in climate and patterns of land-use activities in the Great Miami River basin in combination rather than individually. The ultimate goal of this research work was to apply the integrative approach in examining the potential impacts of hypothetically constructed climate and land-use changes on hydrological system and water quality of the Great Miami River. The research results show that dry climate scenarios paired with future land-use change scenario would reduce the annual flow of the Great Miami River and slightly increase the annual concentrations of phosphorus, total ammonia nitrogen and sum of nitrites and nitrates. The simulation results from combined wet climate scenario and land- use change scenario show a significantly larger increase in annual flow as well as greater presence of nutrients in the water. The study shows very high enrichments of phosphorus in the waters regardless whether it is a dry or wet scenario. In average, total orthophosphates annual concentrations in the Great Miami River showed a 40-50% increase compared to current conditions (from 0.45 mg/l to 0.65 mg/l), which is 2-3 times higher than the EPA suggested Water Quality Criteria for freshwaters. The results from hydrologic simulations indicate that if future climate changes to wet (+20% increase in precipitation), the volume of annual flow will increase in average by 70% compared to current conditions. This will result in a larger number and higher magnitudes of stormflows, which would cause more frequent devastating floods, elevating the risks of economic damages to the populated areas adjacent to the streams. The present study investigated the potential effects of Best Management Practices applications on water quantity and quality of the Stillwater River. Simulations of a number of BMPs showed their effectiveness in reducing pollutant concentrations in the stream, and, hence, improving the water quality. Finally, this dissertation has demonstrated that application of the GIS-based U.S EPA BASINS multipurpose environmental analysis system and HSPF model in concert is a very comprehensive water quality and quantity analysis tool. It can be useful in the implementations of long-term water resources management and development programs. Key words: climate change, land-use change, hydrologic regime, water quality, BASINS, HSPF. Copyright notice. Acknowledgments At first, I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee: Dr. Tong, Dr. Frohn, Dr. Dunning and Dr. Goodrich. Especially, I want to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Susanna Tong, my dissertation advisor, for her invaluable guidance and encouragement throughout the whole process. She is an excellent graduate advisor and I really learned a great deal from her knowledgeable suggestions and her incredible experience. This study would not have been possible without invaluable assistance of Dr. Robert Frohn. He has been a mentor and an advisor to me. I am deeply indebted to him and I would like to specially thank him for providing me this opportunity to finish this research work. His suggestions and support are greatly appreciated. I also would like to acknowledge other faculty members of the Geography Department: Dr. Nicholas Dunning, Dr. Wendy Eisner, Dr. Ken Hinkel, Dr. Lin Liu, Dr. Byron Miller, Dr.Wolf Roder, Dr. Roger Selya, Dr. Robert South, Dr. Howard Stafford for the immensely rewarding graduate school experience. I am particularly thankful to Dr. Ken Hinkel for sharing his scientific experience and teaching me many things. I am also grateful to Bev Mueller for her kind help during my first year in Cincinnati. I would like to thank all the students of our beloved Geography Department for providing an excellent academic atmosphere. And finally, I would like to thank my parents, my brother and my sister for helping me though this. They always supported and encouraged me for all these times. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………. 3 LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………... 6 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………. 8 CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW……………………………………………… 16 1. 1 HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT…………………………………………………... 18 1.1.1 Water quantity assessment…………………………………………………………... 18 1.1.1.1 Purposes of water quantity assessment……………………………………………….. 18 1.1.1.2 Hydrological Modeling……………………………………………………………… 19 1.1.1.3 Advantages and limitations of simulation models……………………………………... 24 1.1.2 Water quality assessment……………………………………………………………. ..26 1.1.2.1 Purposes of Water Quality Assessment………………………………………………. 27 1.1.2.2 Types of water pollution…………………………………………………………….. 27 1.1.2.3 Water Quality modeling……………………………………………………………... 28 1.1.2.4 Types of water quality models……………………………………………………….. 29 1.1.2.5 Reliability and limitations of water quality models……………………………………. 33 1.2. LAND USE CHANGE AND HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT…………………….. 33 1.3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT……………………... 36 1.3.1 Brief discussion of climate change…………………………………………………….. 36 1.3.2 Climate change and water resources…………………………………………………… 40 1.4. GIS AND REMOTE SENSING IN WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS………………… 41 1.5 BIOLOGICAL INTEGRITY CONCEPT IN IMPACT ANALYSIS………………….. 46 1.6 COMBINED CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS IN HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT……………………………………………….. 51 CHAPTER II: METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………….. 55 Overview 2.1 STUDY AREA AND ENVIRONMETAL SETTINGS…………………………………. 55 2.1.1 Climate ……………………………………………………………………………… 59 2.1.2 Hydrology and hydrography…………………………………………………………… 64 2.1.3 Reservoirs and flood control…………………………………………………………… 65 2.1.4 Wetlands……………………………………………………………………………… 67 2.1.5 Geology and physiography…………………………………………………………….. 67 2.1.6 Groundwater………………………………………………………………………….. 72 2.1.7 Soils………………………………………………………………………………….. 73 2.1.8 Land Use……………………………………………………………………………... 74 2.1.9 Demographics, Urban development and Industry……………………………………….. 81 2.1.10 Water use and water quality………………………………………………………….. 85 2.1.11 Stream sediments……………………………………………………………………. 92 2.2 MODEL SELECTION AND DEVELOPMENT………………………………………. 92 2.2.1 Selection Criteria………………………………………………………………………92 2.2.2 Model selection and compatibility……………………………………………………....93 2.2.3 US EPA BASINS 3.0 and HSPF………………………………………………………. 94 2.2.4 Brief overview of HSPF structure for Non-point source modeling………………………..99 2.2.5 Modeling approach……………………………………………………………………107 2.2.6 Database Summary……………………………………………………………………109 2.3 DEVELOPMENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS………………………………..111 2.4.1 Brief overview………………………………………………………………………..111 2.4.2 Climate scenarios……………………………………………………………………...112 2.4 DEVELOPMENT LAND USE CHANGE SCENARIOS……………………………….113 2.4.1 Brief overview………………………………………………………………………...113 1 2.4.2 Land use scenarios…………………………………………………………………….114 2.5 APPROACHES FOR SCENARIO ANALYSIS………………………………………...126 CHAPTER III: MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION…………………… 127 Overview 3.1 HYDROLOGY CALIBRATION/VALIDATION………………………………………127 3.1.1 Brief analysis of flow regime………………………………………………………….. 127 3.1.2 Summary of Hydrologic Simulation…………………………………………………….137 3.1.3 Brief overview: Calibration and Validation…………………………………………….. 137 3.1.4 Hydrologic model calibration and validation…………………………………………….139 3.2 WATER QUALITY CALIBRATION/VALIDATION………………………………….157 3.2.1 Analysis of the current water quality conditions and summary of water quality simulation…………………………………………………………………………………...157 3.2.2 Water quality model calibration and validation…………………………………………. 163 3.2.2.1 Water temperature and Dissolved oxygen simulation………………………………………164 3.2.2.2 Nutrient simulations…………………………………………………………………………165 3.2.3 Water quality calibration………………………………………………………………………167 CHAPTER IV: CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND SIMULATION RESULTS…………211 4.1 REVIEW OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS…………………………………………………211 4.2 FLOW REGIME UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE……………………………………….214 4.2 WATER QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE………………………………………..237 CHAPTER V: LAND USE SCENARIOS AND SIMULATION RESULTS………… 260 Overview 5.1 IMPACTS OF LAND USE DEVELOPMENT……………………………………….….260 5.2 LAND USE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR GMR BASIN……………………….. 265 5.3 HYDROLOGY UNDER FUTURE LAND USE SCENARIO……………………………273 5.4 WATER QUALITY UNDER FUTURE LAND USE SCENARIO………………………278 Summary CHAPTER VI: COMBINED CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE SCENARIOS…………………………………………………………………………….. 288 6.1 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF COMBINED CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES.…………………………………………………………………………………………288 6.2 FLOW REGIME UNDER COMBINED FUTURE CLIMATE AND LAND USE SCENARIOS………………………………………………………………………………………..290 6.3 WATER QUALITY UNDER COMBINED CLIMATE AND LAND USE
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