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Determining the Criticality of Materials (Yale 2007)

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Determining the Criticality of Materials (Yale 2007) Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Determining the Criticality of Materials Thomas E. Graedel Yale University Global 20th Century Metal Use 10000.0 Al Cr Cu Fe 1000.0 Au Pb Ni Ag W Zn 100.0 10.0 1.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0.1 The global annual mine production of precious metals could fit into a small warehouse density: 10.5 t/m³ 19.3 Pt+Pd+Rh+Ru+Ir Ag (15.1) 20 000 t/a PGM Au 470 t/a 2 500 t/a WorldWorld mine mine production production PGM: PGM: |3.2 m | |- 12.3 m -| |- 5.1 m -| >> 85% 85% from from South South Africa Africa & & Russia Russia oreore grade grade < < 10 10 g/t g/t density: 12.0 t/m³ value:value: 8.9 8.9 billion billion $ $ (at (at 2005 2005 prices) prices) 21.5 240240 t t/ /> > 50% 50% used used for for catalysis catalysis PGM=Platinum Group Metals 12.5 12.4 Pd Pt 215 t/a 22.7 (17.9 m³) 205 t/a Rh Ru Ir (9,5 m³) 23 t/a 23 t/a 4 t/a Figures for 2005 |- 2,6 m -| |- 2,1 m -| |- 1,2 m -| |-1,2 m -| |0,55 | m Annual average 2005*: Pd = 201 $/troz / 6.5 $/g; Pt = 897 / 28.8; Rh = 2053 / 66.0; Ru = 74 / 2.4; Ir = 169 / 5.4 The World’s Annual Production of Terbium 5.0 m The World’s Annual Production of Tellurium 2.6 m The World’s Annual Production of Rhenium 1.2 m Research Questions Related to the Consideration of Critical Resources • How much is known about the ways in which modern society uses metals? • How much metal exists in the ground, in in-use stock, and in other reservoirs, and where is it located geographically? • What factors other than absolute abundance may limit metal use? • Should we “mine” tailings, slag, landfills? • Are supplies of any metals of long-term concern and, if so, which ones? Important Questions for Corporations Related to the Consideration of Critical Resources • Are supplies of any of the materials used in major products of possible long-term concern? • Could resource constraints place major products in a “no-build” situation? • Can innovative approaches to product design and recycling avoid resource availability problems? Evaluating the Criticality of Materials The First Dimension of Criticality • The Supply Risk – Geologic availability -- Technical availability – Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability – Social availability -- Market availability US Resource Dependencies MoMo CL Cu CL NiNi CA, RU W CN, CA Ti KZ, RU Co RU, CG ReRe CL Pt SA, RU RERE CN Nb BZ In CN 0 50 100PRINCIPAL 150 EXPORTING per cent imported COUNTRIES China Resource Dependencies RE WW Mo NiNi Re TiTi Co CuCu 0 20406080100 per cent imported The Second Dimension of Criticality • The Impact of Supply Restriction – Prevents manufacture – Impedes product development – Influences profitability The Two Dimensions of Criticality • The Impact of Supply Restriction – Prevents manufacture – Impedes manufacture – Little effect on manufacture • The Supply Risk – Geologic availability -- Technical availability – Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability – Social availability -- Market availability Determining a Material’s Criticality High Impact of Supply Restriction Low Low High Supply Risk Locating a Product Material on the “Impact of Restriction” Axis High Region of a high impact material Region of a low impact material Impact of Supply Restriction Low Low High Supply Risk Locating a Product Material on the “Supply Risk” Axis High Region of a high supply risk material Region of a low supply risk Impact of Supply Restriction Low material Low High Supply Risk Identifying the “Region of Danger” High Region of Danger Impact of Supply Restriction Low Low High Supply Risk Data Challenges • Ultimate sizes of resources (as opposed to the sizes of what is now or will soon be mined, i.e., the reserves) are quite poorly known • The proportions of metals entering specific uses are rough estimates at best, because of data limitations • Product designers are typically unaware of the criticality of a material, because no reputable published assessments are available Final Messages • For large or vital uses of materials, corporations and governments have the duty to evaluate materials criticality • The criticality of a material depends on two factors: the impact of supply disruption and the supply risk • Product designers should be well informed about the upper right corner of the criticality diagram, and should avoid it if possible • Comprehensive recovery and reuse of materials and components minimizes criticality Ivan Herring, General Motors Corp., March 7, 2007 Si Technology: The Complexity is Increasing Rapidly +4 Elements +45 Elements 11 Elements Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006.
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