Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Determining the Criticality of Materials
Thomas E. Graedel Yale University Global 20th Century Metal Use
10000.0
Al Cr
Cu Fe 1000.0 Au Pb
Ni Ag
W Zn 100.0
10.0
1.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.1 The global annual mine production of precious metals could fit into a small warehouse
density: 10.5 t/m³
19.3 Pt+Pd+Rh+Ru+Ir Ag (15.1)
20 000 t/a PGM Au 470 t/a 2 500 t/a WorldWorld mine mine production production PGM: PGM: |3.2 m | |- 12.3 m -| |- 5.1 m -| >> 85% 85% from from South South Africa Africa & & Russia Russia oreore grade grade < < 10 10 g/t g/t density: 12.0 t/m³ value:value: 8.9 8.9 billion billion $ $ (at (at 2005 2005 prices) prices) 21.5 240240 t t/ /> > 50% 50% used used for for catalysis catalysis PGM=Platinum Group Metals
12.5 12.4 Pd Pt 215 t/a 22.7 (17.9 m³) 205 t/a Rh Ru Ir (9,5 m³) 23 t/a 23 t/a 4 t/a Figures for 2005
|- 2,6 m -| |- 2,1 m -| |- 1,2 m -| |-1,2 m -| |0,55 | m
Annual average 2005*: Pd = 201 $/troz / 6.5 $/g; Pt = 897 / 28.8; Rh = 2053 / 66.0; Ru = 74 / 2.4; Ir = 169 / 5.4 The World’s Annual Production of Terbium
5.0 m The World’s Annual Production of Tellurium
2.6 m The World’s Annual Production of Rhenium
1.2 m Research Questions Related to the Consideration of Critical Resources How much is known about the ways in which modern society uses metals? How much metal exists in the ground, in in-use stock, and in other reservoirs, and where is it located geographically? What factors other than absolute abundance may limit metal use? Should we “mine” tailings, slag, landfills? Are supplies of any metals of long-term concern and, if so, which ones? Important Questions for Corporations Related to the Consideration of Critical Resources Are supplies of any of the materials used in major products of possible long-term concern? Could resource constraints place major products in a “no-build” situation? Can innovative approaches to product design and recycling avoid resource availability problems? Evaluating the Criticality of Materials The First Dimension of Criticality
The Supply Risk – Geologic availability -- Technical availability – Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability – Social availability -- Market availability US Resource Dependencies
MoMo CL Cu CL NiNi CA, RU W CN, CA Ti KZ, RU Co RU, CG ReRe CL Pt SA, RU RERE CN Nb BZ In CN
0 50 100PRINCIPAL 150 EXPORTING per cent imported COUNTRIES China Resource Dependencies
RE WW Mo NiNi Re TiTi Co CuCu
0 20406080100 per cent imported The Second Dimension of Criticality
The Impact of Supply Restriction – Prevents manufacture – Impedes product development – Influences profitability The Two Dimensions of Criticality
The Impact of Supply Restriction – Prevents manufacture – Impedes manufacture – Little effect on manufacture
The Supply Risk – Geologic availability -- Technical availability – Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability – Social availability -- Market availability Determining a Material’s Criticality
High
Impact of Supply Restriction Low
Low High Supply Risk Locating a Product Material on the “Impact of Restriction” Axis
High Region of a high impact material
Region of a low impact material Impact of Supply Restriction Low
Low High Supply Risk Locating a Product Material on the “Supply Risk” Axis
High Region of a high supply risk material
Region of a low supply risk Impact of Supply Restriction Low material
Low High Supply Risk Identifying the “Region of Danger”
High Region of Danger
Impact of Supply Restriction Low
Low High Supply Risk Data Challenges
Ultimate sizes of resources (as opposed to the sizes of what is now or will soon be mined, i.e., the reserves) are quite poorly known The proportions of metals entering specific uses are rough estimates at best, because of data limitations Product designers are typically unaware of the criticality of a material, because no reputable published assessments are available Final Messages
For large or vital uses of materials, corporations and governments have the duty to evaluate materials criticality The criticality of a material depends on two factors: the impact of supply disruption and the supply risk Product designers should be well informed about the upper right corner of the criticality diagram, and should avoid it if possible Comprehensive recovery and reuse of materials and components minimizes criticality Ivan Herring, General Motors Corp., March 7, 2007 Si Technology: The Complexity is Increasing Rapidly
+4 Elements +45 Elements
11 Elements
Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006