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Sector Update Sector Update March 27, 2015 Airline Sector Japan, Korea nix Thai-registered airlines Tokyo and Seoul civil aviation authorities banned new charter and scheduled flights operated by Thai-registered airlines, as they are doubtful of the Thai Civil Aviation Department's ability to meet international standards for aviation safety. Scheduled and charter flights to Japan and South Korea already operating will be immune from the ban on the condition they do not change the types of aircraft serving those routes. This event is due to the risk of the department being downgraded by the UN's International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) from Category A to Category B following a recent audit covering a broad range of areas relevant to aviation authority during 19-30 Jan 2015. Thailand has time to improve airlines to meet standards within 90 days and is expected to know the result of the examination in May. AWS’s comment NOK (Negative): This is expected to have a negative impact on NOK as the company holds a 51% stake in NokScoot, which planned to launch charter flights from Don Mueang to Japan but has not received an official permit to operate the route and the next scheduled flights face delays. In 2014, NOK recognized loss of around Bt60mn from NokScoot Airline Co Ltd as its business was in the beginning stage. In Jan 2015, NokScoot received a second aircraft which will increase costs. Earnings improvement for NOK from domestic routes during the tourist season and lower oil price should offset higher losses from NokScoot. AAV (Neutral): AAV (Thai Airasia) does not hold a stake in Thai Airasia X but will be slightly affected by transit passengers in local routes as Thai AirAsia X planned to launch flights from Bangkok to Sapporo on 1 May, but that is no longer on the radar. Thai Airasia X’s current routes are still operational. Moreover, AAV currently does not have charter flights to Japan. THAI (Neutral): THAI’s investor relations department said the company should not be affected by this news as it always maintains its operations above standard. However, THAI may face some opportunity loss from servicing charter flights during the Songkran holiday in April. BA (Neutral): Bangkok Airways would not be directly impacted as it has no flights to Japan. However, in the worst case that Thailand is downgraded by ICAO from Category A to Category B, it may lead to additional countries, such as the US and EU to follow Japan and Thailand Research Department Korea’s lead and this will have a greater negative impact to THAI. Based on the news, Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon, AAV looks more appealing to invest now than NOK, as the negative impact to AAV is License, No. 17923 limited. AAV’s 2015 earnings should be bright thanks to a recovery in the tourism Tel: 02 680 5041 sector with a robust number of Chinese travelers, five new planes in 2015 (40 total Ms. Sukanya Leelarwerachai now) and low jet fuel prices. AAV’s load factor is expected to rise to 82% in 1Q15 from Assistant Analyst 79% in 4Q14. Table 1: Thai airlines’ operations summary THAI BA AAV NOK 2013 2014 2015E 2013 2014 2015E 2013 2014 2015E 2013 2014 2015E Sales and Service 211,605 191,266 189,308 19,876 21,033 26,399 23,485 25,356 30,111 11,315 12,296 16,472 Growth (%) -10% -1% 6% 26% 8% 19% 9% 34% Operating Profit 2,449 -16,946 5,788 1,727 503 2,949 1,801 -277 4,457 1,837 366 793 Growth (%) -792% 134% -71% 486% -115% 1709% -80% 117% Net Income -12,047 -15,612 -1,874 932 351 1,980 1,043 183 1,869 -472 879 Growth (%) 30% 88% -62% 464% -82% 921% 286% 2015 TP Bloomberg Consensus 14.36 26.11 6.24 18.75 ASK 85,655 82,969 4,063 5,655 12,951 15,419 4,247 5,375 Cabin Factor (%) 74 69 68 65 83 80 84 81 Pax Yield (Bt/Person-km) 2.65 2.66 4.50 3.40 1.81 1.64 2.96 2.57 Cost/ASK (Bt/Person-km) 2.44 2.51 4.00 3.30 1.67 1.66 2.39 2.36 Source: Compiled by AWS, SET, 2015F from Bloomberg Consensus CG Report Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014. BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOP BCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALI BTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCO CPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOG ACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRC ADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUE ANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTE AOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTH ASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTA ASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTW ASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVO BANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UAC BAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGI BBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNT BECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL 2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICO AF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSC AH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCL AHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUF AIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVD AJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFP AKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMI AKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UP AMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPF AMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOIC AMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UT AP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UV APCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWC APCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIH AQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVE ARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHA AS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WIN ASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNER AYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) Corporate Governance Report disclaimer Score Range Number of Logo Description The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors 90 – 100 Excellent Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. 80 – 89 Very Good The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative 70 – 79 Good Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of 60 – 69 Satisfactory a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. 50 – 59 Pass The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey Below 50 No logo given N/A result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Please see disclaimer on last page 2 Contact Branch Address Phone Fax 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini, 02-680-5000 02-680-5111 Head Office Pathumwan Bangkok 10330 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd., 02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1 Silom Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21 02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328 Asok Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110 7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr., 02-884-7333 02-884-7357, Pinklao Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin, 02-884-7367 Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700 Chaengwattana 99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd 02-119-2300 02-835-3014 Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120 Chaengwattana 2 9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr., 02-119-2388 02-119-2399 Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad 02-106-7345 02-105-2070 Mega Bangna Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang 038-808200 038-807200 Rayong District, Rayong Province 21000 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen 043-334-700 043-334-799 Khonkaen 40000 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi 038-053-858 038-784-090 Chonburi 20000 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub- 038-981-587 038-981-591 Chaseongsao District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000 Please see disclaimer on last page 3 .
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