DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 1285 Eugene, OR 97403-1285 The Economics Department Newsletter Number 22 - Fall 2000

General News Henry Goldstein has been busy lately – buying and John Tschirhart New Mikesell Visiting Professor refurbishing a villa in Italy! It’s a good thing Henry can work from home, because the commute has to be murder. In September we were happy to welcome John Tschirhart to our department as this years Mikesell Visiting Professor. Van’s the Man This position, funded by a generous gift from Ray Mikesell, brings prominent economists in Environmental and Resource Van Kolpin has taken over from Mark Thoma as the new economics as long term visitors to our department. John will head of the economics department. Mark has returned to full be with us for the fall of 2000 and the winter of 2001. time teaching and research after guiding the department for John’s record demonstrates the sort of high quality visitor the the past five years. Thanks Mark. Mikesell professorship can attract. Currently a full professor at the University of Wyoming, and a past Burlington Promotions and Hires Northern Professor of Law and Economics at the same institution, John has published 2 books, 45 articles in Bruce Blonigen has earned tenure and has been promoted to economics journals, and has received numerous prestigious Associate Professor. Bruce, who does primarily empirical grants. He recently received almost $1,000,000 in funding research in the field of International Economics, has been in from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for work in the forefront of a new wave of research on foreign direct his current area of research, the integration of ecological and investment. economic models. Wes Wilson has been promoted from Associate to Full Ray Strikes Again!! Professor. Wes, whom alums of recent vintages will know well for his tremendous contribution to the undergraduate It will surprise no-one to hear that Ray Mikesell continues program, has earned national attention with his work on to be as prolific as ever. This Fall sees the publication by the industrial organization, and is currently the chair of the University of Oregon Press of Foreign Adventures of an TPUG group of the American Economic Association. Economist, Ray’s professional memoirs. The department is looking to fill a tenure-track position this --"From the Bretton Woods debates to the founding of Israel, year. We hope to find someone in either International from solving the currency problems of to Finance or Empirical Microeconomics. negotiating trade agreements in Latin America, economist Raymond Mikesell has helped to shape the global economy in the second half of the twentieth century. In Foreign Featured Faculty Member - Joe Stone Adventures of an Economist, Mikesell tells the story of these events as only an eye-witness can, with first-person verve, Many alums like to check in with us from time to time and insight, and wit." -- from book jacket of Foreign Adventures see how their old professors are getting along. In this and of an Economist subsequent newsletters we shall attempt to feed this thirst for knowledge by profiling one of those members of our faculty To celebrate the publication of Ray’s memoirs, the with whom many alums are familiar. In this edition we start Department of Economics and College of Arts and Sciences this feature with Professor Joe Stone. will be hosting a book signing party for our longtime colleague and friend on Tuesday, November 7 at 4:00p.m. in Joe Stone specializes in Labor and International Economics. the Knight Library Browsing Room. He joined the University of Oregon as an Assistant Professor in 1979 after a spell at The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. He has subsequently risen through the ranks to become the George’s High Expectations W.E. Miner Professor of Economics (one of the department’s two endowed chairs) and of Dean of the College of Arts and George Evans and his Finnish coauthor Seppo Honkapohja Sciences. In 1984-85 Joe took a leave from the University have completed their book, "Learning and Expectations in of Oregon to serve as The Senior Economist for International Macroeconomics" which is to be published by Princeton Trade Policy on President Reagan’s Council of Economic University Press. Advisors.

Henry Goes Multinational To date Joe has managed to publish 43 professional papers, author two books, and brought the funding from 18 grants obtained without costs. The example quoted by my old into the University’s coffers. Most impressively he has economics professor at Oregon was the invention of the mentored many graduate students, coauthoring published automobile. It transformed the world and by almost any papers with no less than 7 of his Ph.D. students. measure was a boon to society. But it was hell for buggy whip manufacturers. Despite his current administrative duties Joe remains academically active. In the last two years he has published Globalization has a lot of the attributes of technological three papers on the relative merits of public and private change and in fact is driven by technological change. It schooling. One of these publications arising from a would not be happening without the revolutionary advances presentation given at the Kennedy School of Government, in communication and transportation that have occurred Harvard University. during the past generation. Today, factories all over the world are on line with headquarters in the US or Europe. Joe continues to maintain links with many old colleagues and What we have is a new way of doing things that is students. His recent work has been coauthored with ex- transforming society. Most of us would not question the Oregon faculty member David Figlio and ex-graduate benefits that the information age is bringing to society. But student Beth Wilson. He also maintains close links with we should not be lulled for a moment into thinking that these another ex-Oregon faculty member Randy Eberts (now changes come without costs. The same is true for director of the W.E. Upjohn Institute). globalization.

Those of you that remember Joe will surely agree with the The anti-globalization groups are correct in focusing on assessment “not bad for a kid from the small town of these costs and indicating their discontent that there are Seminole, Texas.” groups in society that seem not to be benefitting from the increase in prosperity associated with these changes. They are also correct in pointing to certain groups whose interests The Controversy over Globalization are damaged by globalization. But they are not correct in The University's recent decisions to join both the Workers trying to limit the costs of change by trying to roll back the Rights Consortium (WRC) and the Fair Labor Association clock and keep the changes from happening. (FLA) out of concerns about worker's conditions in factories producing apparel sporting University logos has sparked One of the contributions that economists can make to the much discussion on campus about the role of globalization debate, and indeed we are trained to do so, is to bring the in people's lives and the economy. As many of you are focus of the discussion to the balance of costs and benefits aware, issues concerning the role of globalization are not involved in the process. That will help policymakers to design just significant for the University of Oregon campus, but programs that can ease the adjustment process and ensure across our country and the world. In the interest of fostering that vulnerable groups are protected during the transition discussion on this issue, we have interviewed Robert Sheehy, phase. a prominent alumnus working in the global economy, about his views on these matters. We also wanted to inform you of 2. What are the most compelling arguments of the pro- some of the activities within our department dealing with globalization advocates? global economic issues. The theoretical and logical basis of the pro-globalization argument is very strong-it goes all the way back to Ricardo Robert Sheehy graduated from the UO in 1970 with BA and the initial demonstrations of the benefits from trade. The degrees in Economics and Romance Languages. He practical basis for their argument is even stronger. subsequently received an MA and PhD in Economics from Globalization has clearly contributed to a diminution of the University of Florida. Robert was an economist at the poverty in many countries. It also benefits the global International Monetary Fund during 1976-90 and spent 2 consumer community by allowing them to obtain the highest years plus of that time as the representative in Sri Lanka. His quality products at the lowest prices. last position there was Deputy Director of the office in Geneva, Switzerland. From 1990 until this past July, Robert One of the greatest misunderstandings in the current was responsible for international securitization projects at discussion and perhaps the area of greatest potential Bear Stearns, and was stationed in Paris (6 years), London (3 mischief is the argument of the so-called "worker rights" years) and Tokyo (1 year). Since August of this year, he has movement that globalization results in exploitation of taken a position as General Manager of the Securitization workers in developing countries. I find it curious that there Department at Shinsei Bank in Tokyo (the former Long- is no discussion of the alternatives that would face workers Term Credit Bank of Japan). in these countries if the factories, which have to pay wages that are competitive in the local market, were not being built Below are Roberts responses to some questions posed to him in the first place. In many cases, the alternatives are stark- by Professors Davies and Blonigen: starvation, disease, infant mortality, and all of the other banes to society caused by unemployment and low incomes. 1. What are the points raised by the anti-globalization forces This is why you see very few policymakers or intellectuals in that merit the most attention? developing countries giving support to the worker rights It is often tempting to think that progress happens without argument. They know better than we what those alternatives problems. Or in the terms of economists, that benefits can be truly are. In fact, the worker rights argument is to a large extent a not very well disguised recycling of protectionism in many countries for decades, those countries have been a new form; as such it does more to benefit workers in transformed, with visible major improvements in the quality declining industries in advanced countries than anything of life. I suppose the counterexample that proves the point is else. Myanmar, the former Burma, which actively opposes integration into the international community and where 3. What policies or strategies can be followed to help spread living standards seem to have declined over the same period. benefits to those currently not benefitting from globalization? Many of the undesirable side effects of globalization can be To my mind, that is the greatest danger posed by the anti- neutralized or offset by appropriate policies. Practically globalization argument. I fear that misguided and probably speaking, part of the benefits of globalization need to be used well intentioned efforts to restrain globalization will actually to smooth the transition for particular groups that are have the opposite effect from what is intended. The result will negatively affected. This is the traditional role of government be that, to the extent that the movement is successful, poverty and of fiscal policy. But smoothing the transition is just that- will be exacerbated in poorer countries. it is not appropriate to use government to reverse or halt the process. That will result in elimination of the benefits and We thank Robert for providing his insights into these will ultimately be to the detriment of society as a whole. The issues. important thing is to strike the proper balance. In recent years, there has been significant faculty and student 4. How can economists contribute to the debate on research in the UO economics department on globalization globalization? issues. Bruce Blonigen has two articles dealing with the I believe that economists have a special responsibility in the effects of foreign direct investment. The first, which is discussion. The underlying proposition is after all at the forthcoming in The Review of Economics and Statistics intellectual heart of our profession. We are trained to examines the role of foreign affiliates in the growing wage consider costs and benefits and to find the optimal solution. gap between skilled and unskilled workers in the United Perhaps the most important contribution that we can make States. Despite a large increase in foreign affiliate presence is to help frame the debate in these terms. And we should not in U.S. from 1977 to 1993, he finds that it has not underestimate the size of the educational challenge. I was contributed to increasing wage gaps. A second article, with shocked recently to learn that my next-door neighbors, a David Figlio, appears in the in The Journal of Urban retired couple with long experience in the international Economics. This article examines the impact of investment arena, were marching in protests against the WTO in the by foreign firms on local communities in South Carolina, a belief that the WTO was forcing countries to exploit their state which experienced substantial inflows in the 1980s. workers!! Their main results indicate that foreign firms pay higher real wages than domestic firms. Also, they find that foreign 5. How has globalization directly affected you? investment can lead local governments to switch public My entire life has been and continues to be changed. I grew spending from schools to infrastructure. Ron Davies also has up on a farm in eastern Oregon. While at the U of O, I spent a working paper looking at local policies and foreign direct a summer in Mexico to study Spanish. That led directly to my investment. He finds that because an individual state ignores first job after graduation-teaching high school math at a the benefits investment provides to other states, state bilingual school in central Mexico that catered to the incentives to foreign firms are inefficiently small. Tax children of employees of multinational companies. That job competition, wherein states compete for investment, helps to in turn led me, after graduate school, to a 15-year stint at an correct this inefficiency, which reverses the typically international agency, where I worked with governments in negative results of tax competition. A second working paper Asia and Latin America on economic policy design. I then by Davies evaluates the use of overseas child labor by spent 10 years working for an international investment bank domestic firms. He finds that by abstaining from child labor, on the introduction of new financial techniques to countries a firm can create a niche market for itself, leading to greater outside the U.S. I am currently working in Japan for a profits. This same firm would not, however, attempt to financial institution that is being restructured to combine the eliminate the use of all child workers since this would best of international and Japanese financial technology and destroy its niche. This helps to explain why even firms management practices. That is nothing more than which do not themselves use child labor balk at measures globalization in action. like the Child Labor Deterrence Act. In addition, Blonigen and Davies have a recent NBER working paper that estimates 6. Having spent considerable time in various countries the effects of negotiated bilateral tax treaties on foreign around the world, what similarities and differences among investment between treaty partners. They find that treaties countries would you attribute to globalization? have substantial effects on investment and that the effects The most striking single thing that I have observed is that grow over time. Furthermore, they find that these positive those countries that have embraced globalization are those effects are not just due to lower tax rates, which suggests that that have progressed the furthest and the fastest in treaties have a role in reducing uncertainty. Both Blonigen eliminating poverty and creating a better life for their people. and Davies have extended their role beyond the department By contrast, those that have actively opposed it have shown by participating in interviews with local media. A group the least improvement (and sometimes even a deterioration) department letter was also published in the Eugene Register in the general standard of living. In southeast Asia, for Guard which defended the benefits of free trade and the role example, where globalization has been actively promoted by of the World Trade Organization. Bruce has also taken part in UO forums on globalization while Ron has given guest $500 to $999: lectures in the Environmental Studies department on Karen and Ernest Ankrim MS ‘75 Ph.D. ‘76 globalization and the environment. John English, ‘81, MBA ‘83. Melody and Kim Ferguson, ‘73. Our undergraduates are also involved in this issue. Jon Larry and Kathy Jackson. Nickel is working on an honors paper that will examine how Melissa Lindsay ‘86. recent events regarding child labor issues have affected Irene McNeely ‘87. profitability of Nike, Adidas, and other producers and Carol and John Mitchell MA ‘68 Ph.D. ‘70. industries that rely on assembly in less-developed countries. Anne and Willis Rader ‘62. Joe Wombacher completed an honors paper which Dorothy and Richard Roberts, ‘39 and ‘45 MS ‘46. considered the effects of China’s admission into the World Connie and George Slape ‘76. Trade Organization. In her honors paper, Myunghee Chung Richard Williams ‘60 Ph.D. ‘64. considered the relative benefits of export substitution versus Ann and David Worthington, ‘73. import promotion for several Asian countries. $250 to $499: Finally, the department has sought out seminar speakers who Dwight Barker ‘87. study globalization. These include Keith Head, Peter Schott, June and Thomas Berry ‘77. Andy Bernard, and Eckhard Janeba. Ed Leamer, a Teresa and John Bodney ‘70. prominent scholar on the effect of trade on wages and many Fredericka Bunting ‘69. other international economics issues, will be a Visiting Inja and Hi Chae MA ‘74 MS ‘75 Ph.D. 76. Scholar to the department in May. Cheryl Chiene ‘67. Charles and Joan Haworth, MA ‘67, Ph.D. ‘68 & MA ‘65, Clearly, a great deal can be said on the effects of MA ‘67, Ph.D. ‘70. globalization. If you are interested in being interviewed for Gail Kuramitsyu and Lohring Miller ‘68. future editions, please let the department know. Also, for Jannet and James Mills MS ‘71 Ph.D. ‘73. those interested in globalization, we present a short suggested Gerald and Jane Moshofsky ‘52 and ‘51. reading list: Jahee and Dong-Yul Park Ph.D. ‘82. Richard Price ‘75. Philip King, International Economics and International Marion and John Ranlett, MS ‘52 Ph.D. ‘57. Economic Policy: A Reader, 3rd edition, Irwin McGraw-Hill, Frank Slawson ‘64. Boston, MA, 2000. Karen and Kevin Smith ‘85. Edward M. Graham, Fighting the Wrong Enemy: Anti- Myriam and Douglas Southgate Jr. ‘74. global Activists and Multinational Enterprises, Institute for Edward Syring Jr. ‘60 MA ‘62 Ph.D. ‘66 International Economics: Washington, D.C., 2000. Barbara and Howard Teasely Jr. MA ‘68. Robert A. Isaak, Managing World Economic Change: Tina and Lino Vaccher ‘86. International Political Economy, 3rd Edition, Prentice Hall: Jane and Yung Yang, MA ‘73, Ph.D. ‘74. Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2000. Gifts from those graduating in the last 5 years: Gifts Maynard Arif, ‘98 Cesar Medrano ‘95. Our students and faculty would like to thank all of you who Sarah Munson ‘95. have contributed to the Economics Department over the past year. We put all donations to good use, no matter what the Corporate Donations. amount. We publically recognize donors of larger gifts, and Aon Foundation donations of any amount by recent graduates. In addition to David Bradwell and Associates donations of money, remember that there can be substantial General Electric Foundation tax benefits to gifts of stock and other assets. Johnson and Johnson Nike, Inc. $2,000 and above: Quantec, UC Lee Freiermuth ‘77 MBA ‘78. SBC Foundation Patricia and Robert Sheehy, ‘70. Shell Oil Company Foundation Alden Stewart 67' The Prudential Foundation Jean Tattersall ‘77. The Summer Fund Susan and William Walsh, ‘66. U.S. Bancorp U.S. West Foundation $1,000 to $1,999: Xerox Foundation Deanna and Gary Feldman, ‘77. Albert and Constance Gutowsky, MS ‘61, Ph.D. ‘65 & ‘61. Craig Iverson and Kristine Vernstrom-Iverson, ‘67 & ‘69. Thelma and Walter Mead ‘48, Ph.D. ‘52. The Undergraduate Program students who entered the Ph.D. program last year, six successfully completed the year and the qualifying After many years of sterling service Wes Wilson has passed examinations (the "CORE") this past summer. These on the mantle of director of undergraduate studies to Bruce students, along with a cadre of more advanced Ph.D. Blonigen. students who are directly involved in research and classroom instruction account for our 25 student Ph.D. program. We Bruce reports that, while the number of undergraduate awarded five Ph.D. degrees this past academic year. Four of majors has been declining nationwide, the undergraduate our newly-minted Ph.D.s accepted tenure-track positions at economics program remains as popular as ever. Last year academic institutions. Peter R. Crabb joined the faculty of 115 seniors walked through graduation in the spring. 4 were Northwest Nazarene University in Boise, Idaho this fall. Phi Beta Kappa. 9 wrote honors papers and graduated with Bruce B. McGough is now an Assistant Professor of honors in the Economics Department. Congratulations to Economics at Oregon State University, just up the road a few you all!! miles. Jeffrey E. Russell made the largest geographic adjustment, moving to Ashland, Ohio to teach at Ashland This fall we are organizing several undergraduate events College. Kevin A. Terada joined the faculty of Pacific these include: Lutheran University in Tacoma, Washington. Our non- academic placement is Athipong Hirunraengchok, who Economics Career Day returned to his home country of Thailand and assumed a A panel of recent alums will be sharing their experiences of position with the Thai government. transitioning from college to work. There will also be sessions on resume writing, interviewing skills and At the Department's graduation ceremony last June, two internships. (November 2000) doctoral students were recognized with awards. The teaching award went to Michael J. Enz for his excellent teaching in Visiting Speaker George Fugelsang courses including Introduction to Microeconomic Analysis, The economics peer advisors will be hosting a talk by Intermediate Microeconomic Theory, and International Alumni Fellow, George Fugelsang, current president and Economic Issues. In the area of research, the department CEO of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson North America Inc., a gives an award for the best field paper, a research paper global banking corporation. The title of Mr. Fugelsang's required of doctoral students prior to the dissertation lecture will be "Change is not the enemy! Some thoughts prospectus. Last spring, Rossitza B. Wooster received the about career management in 2000 and beyond." (November award for her paper entitled "The Interdependence of 2000) Foreign Direct Investment and Market-Oriented Reforms in Help Sessions Central and Eastern European Countries: A Game Theoretic Professors Gray and Blonigen will be leading a help session Analysis". Kristen Johnson received an award for the Best on how to prepare for and apply to graduate programs in Undergraduate Research Paper for her work “Age and economics. (October 2000) Gender Differences in Altruistic Behavior”. Kelly Daucher won the Best Master’s Research Paper for “Does Money Other Happenings Matter? An Analysis of California Public High Schools”. The Economics Department is in the process of setting up formal credit opportunities for students who undertake The Masters Program internships. The economics peer advisors are working to The masters degree continues to be a strong and vibrant gather and publicize information to all majors on internship component of the graduate program. In the past year 13 and career opportunities. We shall be creating a new students achieved masters degrees in economics. There are webpage this year which will facilitate quick dissemination currently 17 others enrolled in the program. of information on career, internship, graduate programs, and study abroad opportunities. Speakers and Visitors

The peer advising group remains very active this year with Seminars 24 students involved in the current quarter. Their role is to Over the past year we have been able to bring several advise other students on major requirements, set up a interesting speakers through to give seminars, these included: calendar of events for majors, write a quarterly newsletter, and other tasks described immediately above. Eric Friedman (Rutgers, visiting Cal Tech) “The Social Cost of Cheap Pseudonyms”. The Graduate Program Nachum Sicherman (Columbia) "Why Do Dancers Smoke? The Ph.D. Program Time Preference, Occupational Choice, and Wage Growth". Graduate students define the unique character of a university committed to both the discovery of knowledge and Richard Chisik (Florida International) “Gradualism in Free dissemination of knowledge through teaching. The Trade Agreements: A Theoretical Justification”. Economics Department's graduate students play a critical role in the undergraduate instructional program at the UO and in Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies, UK, visiting the research environment within the Department. This year's UCLA) "Productivity and Foreign Ownership: An Analysis first-year Ph.D. class numbers six students. Of the nine Using UK Plant Level Data". Matt Jackson (Cal Tech) “Strategic Candidacy and Voting Cathleen Leue (Oregon)"Economic Data Available in the Rules”. Data Services Lab and on the Web".

Richard Friberg (visiting Berkeley) "One Money, One Daming Xu (Oregon - Mathematics) "Maximum Excess Market? Exchange Rate Variability and the Decision to Return Strategies". Segment Markets". Upcoming Speakers John Leahy (Boston University) "The Social Discount Rate". Keith Head (UBC) 9/29 Tomas Philipson (Chicago) 10/6 Kathleen Trask (Kentucky) “Decentralized International John Tschirhart (Wyoming) 10/12 Exchange”. Janet Currie (UCLA) 10/13 Ray Mikesell (Oregon), "Dual Exchange Markets for Peter Hammond (Stanford) 10/19 Countries Facing Financial Crises". Ekhard Janeba (Colorado) 10/27 David Lucking-Riley (Vanderbilt) 11/3 Peter Lambert (York) "Progressivity Comparisons" Peter Schott (Yale) 11/10 Amartya Lahiri (UCLA) "Output Costs, BOP Crises, and Andrew Bernard (Dartmouth) 11/16 Optimal Interest Rate Policy" Bill Branch (Oregon) 11/30 John Garen (Kentucky) "Sharing Incentives and Control: Christophe Muller (Nottingham) 12/1 Some Theory with An Application to Contract Workers". Charlie Holt (Virginia) 2/23 Jeroen Suijs (Tilburg) 3/2 Ned Gramlich (Board of Governors) "Fiscal and Monetary Al Slavinski (Western Ontario) 3/9 Strategies". Roger Farmer (UCLA) 4/6 Alison Watts (Vanderbilt) "The Evolution of Social and Stephen Perez (Washington State) 4/13 Economic Networks". Steinar Holden (Oslo) 4/19 Tom Hubbard (Chicago) "Contractibility and Asset Assaf Razin (Tel Aviv) 5/4 Ownership: On-Board Computers and Governance in U.S. Ed Leamer (UCLA) 5/10 Trucking". Marcus Berliant (Wash. U) 5/24 Laurent Martin (Washington - TBA) Roger Guesnerie (DELTA, Paris) "The Transmission of Luke Froeb (Vanderbilt - TBA) Information Through Prices: An Alternative Exploratory Beth Allen (Minnesota -TBA) Assessment of Market Performance". Frank Page (Alabama - TBA) Charles de Bartolome (Colorado) "Mixing in a These seminars are open to the public, if you would like to Metropolitan Area: Can the Poor and Rich Both Live in the attend please do so. If you would like more information Inner City and in the Suburbs?" about them please call the Economics Department office at 541-346-4661. Tom Sargent (Stanford) "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing with Filtering”. Public Events Workshops As in previous years, the department will host a party at the Joint AEA ASSA meetings. The 2001 Meetings are in New On a more informal level we run a workshop series intended Orleans, Jan. 5-7. The date and location of the party are for authors to try out ideas and analyses at an early stage of TBA, so please contact the department towards the end of their development, this year these included. December for details. George W. Evans, (Oregon) "Expectations and the Stability Faculty Activities Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies".

Jean Stockard, and Bob O Brien, (Oregon - Sociology) Grants and Awards "The Changing Age Distribution of Lethal Violence: The Influence of Cohort Characteristics". Bruce Blonigen was made a Faculty Research Fellow with the National Bureau of Economic Research. Rossitza Wooster (Oregon) "The Interdependence of Foreign Direct Investment and Market-Oriented Reforms in Shankha Chakraborty received a New Faculty Award for Central and Eastern European Countries: A Game Theoretic 1999-2000 and a Junior Professorship Development Award, Analysis". Summer 2000. Ron Davies received a New Faculty Award for 1999-2000 one-week course at the Bank of Finland on the role of and a Junior Professorship Development Award, Summer expectations in macroeconomics and the implications for 2000. monetary policy. Participants included members of the research departments in the European Union Central Bank, George Evans’s NSF grant for "Expectations and Economic the Belgium central bank and the Bundesbank. Fluctuations" continues through the end of November. George also presented seminars at the Federal Reserve Bank Bill Harbaugh received a William Walsh Faculty of St. Louis, DELTA in Paris, Princeton University and MIT. Fellowship, 2000. He also presented at the World Econometric Society Jim Ziliak was made a Research Affiliate, Institute for meetings in Seattle, and gave an invited paper at the Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Association Francaise de Science Economique annual received a Research Grant from the Office of the Assistant meeting, which will be published in their Revue Economique. Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, "TANF and Household Saving," with Erik Hurst, 2000-2001; and received a Bill Harbaugh is working on a National Science Foundation Cooperative Grant, from the Economic Research Service, supported project to use economic models to study children’s U.S. Department of Agriculture, "Poverty, Macroeconomic behavior. He and Tim Berry, a UO Econ major, have a paper Conditions, and Welfare Reform," with Craig Gundersen, comparing rational choice behavior among 2nd graders, 6th 2000-2001. graders, and college students coming out in The American Economic Review. They find that consumption choices by eleven year olds are just as rational as choices by college Research Activity undergraduates. Bill and another Econ student, Steve Liday, have written a paper on children’s’s bargaining behavior. No Bruce Blonigen gave papers at the following meetings: The parent will be surprised to hear that one of their finding is Western Economic Association Meetings, July 2000; The that, by some measures, 2nd graders are tougher bargainers International Institute for Fisheries Economics, Oregon State than adults. University, OR, July 2000; The NBER Program International Trade and Investment Meetings, Cambridge, MA, March 2000; Bill has presented his work at the Economic Science American Economic Association meetings, Boston, January Association Meetings, the University of Wisconsin, 2000; Empirical Investigations in International Trade Washington State University and Georgia State University. meetings, Purdue, November 1999; and gave seminars at the This summer he participated in the NBER Summer Institute, following institutions: and was an invited reviewer for an EPA panel on “WTP for UCLA, February 2000. improvements in children’s health and safety.” Indiana University, November 1999. University of Wisconsin, 1999. Anne van den Nouweland made the following presentations , October 1999. this year: University of Maryland, October 1999. Georgetown University, October 1999. "Designing Mechanisms for Inducing Cooperative Behavior in Non-Cooperative Environments: Theory and Shankha Chakraborty presented the paper "Endogenous Applications", at Virginia Tech, 10-11-1999 and Stanford Lifetime & Growth" at the Canadian Economic Meetings, University, 5-18-2000; "Network Formation Models with Vancouver, July 2000. Costs for Establishing Links”, at Game Theory Seminar, Tilburg University, The Netherlands, 4-14-2000, Hill Center Ron Davies presented papers at the following meetings: The Talk, University of Oregon, 5-31-200, and GAMES 2000, Midwest International Economics Meetings, October 2000; Bilbao, Spain, 7-24-2000; and "Agency and Reciprocal The Western Economic Association Meetings, July 2000; Externalities", Microeconomics Seminar, Center for The Midwest International Economics Meetings, May 2000; Economic Research, Tilburg, the Netherlands, 7-6-2000. Conference on Capital Mobility and the Impact of Threat Effects on Income Distribution and Public Finances, March She also made research visits to the Department of 2000. Econometrics, Tilburg University, The Netherlands, April 14-20, 2000, and Center for Economic Research, Tilburg, Chris Ellis presented “Agency and Reciprocal The Netherlands, June 28-July 6, 2000. Externalities.” at the Public Economic Theory, Biannual Meetings, Warwick, UK, July 2000; and “Designing a Anne also attended the PET 2000 conference (Public Mechanism for Inducing Cooperation in Non-Cooperative Economic Theory), The University of Warwick, UK, July Environments: Theory and Applications” at the Latin 2000, and GAMES 2000, the First World Congress in Game American and Caribbean Economic Association Meetings, Theory, Bilbao, Spain, July 2000. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, October 2000. Larry Singell presented at several conferences including the NBER conference on higher education, the joint conference George Evans, together with Seppo Honkapohja, gave a of the American and European Society of Labor Economists in Milan, and the RES meeting in St. Andrews Scotland. Bill Harbaugh “GARP for Kids: On the Development of Rational Choice Larry is also working with the Portland Sports Authority to Behavior.” Forthcoming, The American Economic Revie,. evaluate the benefits to Oregon and Portland from having (with Kate Krause, and Timothy R. Berry). Major League Baseball in Portland. “Are Adults Better Behaved Than Children? Age, Jim Ziliak presented papers at the 8th World Congress of Experience, and the Endowment Effect,” Forthcoming, the Econometric Society, Seattle, WA, and at Rural Economics Letters, (with Kate Krause and Lise Vesterlund). Dimensions of Welfare Reform: A research conference on poverty, welfare, and food assistance, Washington D.C., May Anne van den Nouweland, 4-5, 2000. "Network formation models with costs for establishing links". Review of Economic Design, Special Issue on Publications Networks, (Forthcoming) (with M. Slikker).

Our faculty continues to be highly productive. A selection of "A One-Stage Model of Link Formation and Payoff this years publications is given below. Division," Games and Economic Behavior, (Forthcoming) (with M. Slikker). Bruce Blonigen "Foreign Affiliate Activity and U.S. Skill Upgrading," "Communication Situations with Asymmetric Players," Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming (with Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 52, Matthew J. Slaughter). (forthcoming) (with M. Slikker).

"The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Local "Potential Maximizers and Network Formation," Communities," Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 48 Mathematical Social Sciences 39, 55-70, (with M. Slikker, (September 2000), pp. 338-363 (With Figlio, David N). B Dutta and S Tijs).

"R&D Activity and Acquisitions in High Technology "Values of Games with Probabilistic Graphs," Mathematical Industries: Evidence from the U.S. Electronics Industry," Social Sciences 37, 79-95, (with E. Calvo, J. Lasaga). Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 48 (March 2000), pp. 47-70 (with Christopher T. Taylor). Van Kolpin “Regulation and Cost Inefficiency," Review of Industrial "Welfare Costs of the U.S. Antidumping and Countervailing Organization, (forthcoming). Duty Laws," Journal of International Economics, Vol. 49 (December 1999), pp. 211-244. (with Michael P. Gallaway Ray Mikesell and Joseph E. Flynn). Participated in April 1999 conference sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Bank for International Chris Ellis Settlements, proceedings of which were published as “The “Common Pool Equities; An Arbitrage Based Non- Future of Official International Organizations,” in Global Cooperative Solution to the Common Pool Resource Financial Crises: Lessons from Recent Events, Joseph R. Problem,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Bisignano, William C. Hunter, and George G. Kaufman Management (forthcoming) (with Michael P. Gallaway). (eds.), Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, May 2000.

George Evans “Comparative Analysis and Economic Policies with Special Published the book "Learning and Expectations in Reference to Financial Crises,” Journal of Comparative Macroeconomics," (with Seppo Honkapohja) Princeton Policy Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 1, April 2000. University Press, which will appear in print in January. He also wrote an entry on the Economics of Expectations for the “Bretton Woods–Original Intentions and Current Problems,” International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 18, No. 4, October Sciences, which will be published by Elsevier Science in 2000. 2001, and had a short technical paper published in Economic Theory. “Meltzer Commission Report on International Institutions,” Economic Development and Cultural Change – accepted for His further contributions included: publication – forthcoming.

"Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time- dependence, with applications to adaptive learning" (with Larry Singell Seppo Honkapohja), Economic Theory, 15, 717-725 (2000). "Gender and Promotion in the Economics Profession," forthcoming Industrial and Labor Relations Review, (joint "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with with John M. McDowell and James P. Ziliak). Heterogeneous Learning Rules" (joint with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon) Macroeconomic "Assimilation and Cohort Quality Among Highly-Skilled Dynamics, (forthcoming). Immigrants: The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity," forthcoming Economic Inquiry, (joint with form. John M.McDowell).

"An Analysis of the Application Process and Enrollment Name: ______Demand for Instate and Out-of-State Students at a Large Public University," forthcoming Journal of Economic Address:______Education Review, (joint with Brad Curs). ______Jim Ziliak "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?" Journal of Human Resources 35:3, Summer 2000, 570-586, (with D. Figlio, E. Davis, and L. Connolly). Class year: ______Degree:______

"Performance-Based Wages in Tax Collection: The Brazilian My news:______Tax Reform and its Effects," The Economic Journal, ______(forthcoming) ( with E. Silva and C. Kahn). ______"Gender and Promotion in the Economics Profession," ______Industrial and Labor Relations Review, (forthcoming) (with J. McDowell and L. Singell). ______"The Effects of the Macroeconomy and Welfare Reform on Food Stamp Caseloads," American Journal of Agricultural ______Economics, 82:3, August 2000, 635-641, (with D. Figlio and C. Gundersen). ______Who? What!? Where !!? Would you like to contact old friends or pass along ______information about yourself? We are interested in hearing ______from you. If you have anything you wish to share about your career, family, achievements or interests or whatever, please ______return the form at the end of this newsletter and we will include your contribution in the next issue. ______The call for information in our last issue received an encouraging response which we are pleased to report below. Please return this form to: Yohannes Suprapto (BS 1986) has been working for the Lippo Group in Indonesia since completing a MA in Newsletter Economics and a Ph.D. in Religion. Department of Economics Mohammad Baarmah (BA 1967) currently operates his 1285 University of Oregon own food stuffs business. Among his ten grandchildren are doctors and engineers. Eugene, OR 97403-1285

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