HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Tropical Storm Erika Information from NHC Advisory 14A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday August 28, 2015 On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 50 mph Position Relative to 90 miles ESE of Santo Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Domingo, Dominican Republic Est. Time & Region: Monday on Min Central Pressure: 1006 mb Coordinates: 17.7 N, 68.5 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 39+ mph 150 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 17 mph Winds Extent: Speed: (tropical storm) Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Erika making landfall on Florida early Monday as a tropical storm .  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Erika making landfall on Florida early Monday at tropical storm strength with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. To illustrate the uncertainty in Erika’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Tropical storm conditions currently affecting the Virgin Islands and will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic and today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.  Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life- threatening flash and mud slides. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Erika Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Erika (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected - is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Central Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible, within 48 hours - is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 8/28/15) 5 1 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 8/28/14) 3 3 0 8

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erika

4 TS Danny 2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Claudette TS Bill 2015 NOAA season forecasts HU Danny 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana (August 6, 2015) M. Danny 0

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Erika is the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Last year saw only three named storms by August 28, but all were average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It hurricanes. shows, for example, that Erika became the fifth named storm of the season on August 24, which is a bit early for the season’s fifth named storm. It also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Potential and Average Remaining Risk

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. A both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average , indicated with a yellow X, is forecast to move off of remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Aug 28 the west coast of Africa over the weekend. Some slow development is 76% for all hurricanes and 79% for major hurricanes. is possible through the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward near the Islands at about 10 mph. The system has 0 percent chance of developing within 2 days and 30 percent chance of developing within 5 days. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 28, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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