''Effects of Changes in the Rates of Value Added Tax On
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‘’EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE RATES OF VALUE ADDED TAX ON VAT REVENUE IN GHANA FROM 2003 TO 2010’’ By Dominic Adamnor Nartey (B.A. Hons Economics) A Thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Commonwealth Executive Masters In Business Administration (CEMBA) July 2011 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this submission is my own work towards the MBA and that to the best of my knowledge , it contain no material previously published by another person or material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree of the University, except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text. Nartey Adamnor Dominic .Signature..................... Date....................... (PG 3075309) Certified by : Anthony Kwabla Dekagbe Signature .................... Date...................... Certified by: Prof. I.K. Dontwi Signature..................... Date......................... Dean, IDL ii DEDICATION I dedicate this thesis to my dear wife, Abigail Adwoa Nartey, whose prayers, love, endurance and encouragement inspired me throughout my study. She took care of the children when I was always away on weekends. Also to my two sons Ariel Adamtey Nartey and Julian Adamnor Nartey for enduring my absence on weekends and in the evenings when I was always away from home. iii ABSTRACT One of the critical activities of any government is the raising of revenue to achieve fiscal policy objectives of matching expenditure to the revenue and reducing budget deficit. Most of these revenues are raised through taxes. The most viable of which is indirect tax which include VAT. The Value Added Tax was introduced in March 1995, but had to be withdrawn barely after three months of operations as a result of public outcry against the tax. It was however reintroduced in December 1998 after intensive consultation and repackaging. Since then, the VAT has contributed a lot to government total tax revenue. This improvement in revenue has made successive governments increase the VAT rate from the initial 10% to 12.5% and then to 15% which pertains now. The main purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of the changes in the VAT rates on VAT revenue. The researcher used ARDL cointegration procedure to analyse the effect of changes in the VAT rate on VAT revenue in Ghana. The study revealed that changes in the VAT rates have not had any significant effect on the VAT revenue. Rather, government expenditure and improvement in GDP had a more significant impact on the VAT revenue, even though the tax buoyancy was generally low and this is attributed to lapses in the tax system in Ghana. Based on the findings of this study, recommendations have been made and it is expected to serve as a guide to management of the VAT Service, policy makers and other stakeholders in tax revenue mobilisation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ......................................................................................................................II DEDICATION.........................................................................................................................III ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................IV TABLE OF CONTENT............................................................................................................V ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .....................................................................................................IX CHAPTER ONE........................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the Study......................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement...............................................................................................................3 1.3 Objectives of the Research...................................................................................................5 1.4 Research Questions..............................................................................................................5 1.5 Significance of the Study ....................................................................................................6 1.6 Organisation of the study ....................................................................................................6 CHAPTER TWO........................................................................................................................7 LITERATURE REVIEW..........................................................................................................7 2.0 Introduction .........................................................................................................................7 2.1 Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................................7 v 2.2 Theoretical Literature ..........................................................................................................8 2.3 The Development of Taxation in Ghana ...........................................................................12 2.4 VAT in Ghana ...................................................................................................................14 2.5 The Re-introduction of VAT in Ghana ........................................................................................16 2.6 Why VAT in Ghana ........................................................................................................................16 2.7 The Mechanics of VAT in other jurisdictions..............................................................................17 2.7.1 VAT in the United Kingdom .......................................................................................................17 2.7.2 VAT in Indonesia ...........................................................................................................18 2.7.3 VAT in South Africa ......................................................................................................19 2.8. Empirical Literature .........................................................................................................19 2.9. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................23 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................24 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................24 3.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................24 3.1 The Conceptual model ......................................................................................................24 3.2 Research Design ................................................................................................................24 3.3 Operational Definitions .....................................................................................................25 vi 3.4 Research Methodology ......................................................................................................26 3.4.1 Data Collection ...............................................................................................................26 3.4.2 Secondary Data ..............................................................................................................26 3.4.3 Propositions ....................................................................................................................26 3.5 Quantitative Design ...........................................................................................................27 CHAPTER FOUR ...................................................................................................................29 DATA INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS ....................................................................29 4.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................29 4.1 ARDL Cointegration Procedure .....................................................................................30 4.2 Diagnostic tests .................................................................................................................33 4.3 Stability Test .....................................................................................................................35 4.4 Discussion Of Long Run Results ......................................................................................35 4.5 Estimation and discussion of short run coefficients ..........................................................38 CHAPTER FIVE......................................................................................................................42 Conclusion, Recommendations And Suggestion For Further Research. ................................42 5.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................42 5.1 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................42 5.2 Recommendations .............................................................................................................44