For papers of 10/21 and 10/22

The New York Times Poll

New Jersey October 14-19, 2005

Total N = 1,013 Registered Voters N = 869 Likely Voters N = 750

Results are based on the total statewide sample unless otherwise noted. An asterisk indicates registered respondents.

Percentages labeled with a "L" have been adjusted to reflect past turnout by geographical region of the state, and include only registered voters who are determined to be likely to vote based on intention of voting, attention to the campaign, and history of voting.

Trends are based on the following surveys: NEW YORK TIMES POLLS: OCT. 1981, NOV. 1991, MARCH 1995, OCT. 2000, OCT. 2001, OCT. 2002 NEW YORK TIMES/CBS NEWS POLLS:. SEPT. 1997, OCT. 1997 NEW YORK TIMES/WCBS-TV POLLS. SEPT. 1993, OCT. 1993

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA 10/20-23/01 88 8 4 10/19-24/02 61 27 13 10/14-19/05 38 55 7

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Codey is handling his job as acting governor of ?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA 10/14-19/05 55 23 22

Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the election district where you now live, or aren't you?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05 82 18 -

3. Is your opinion of favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Jon Corzine yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 29 27 29 14 -

4. Is your opinion of Doug Forrester favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Doug Forrester yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 21 25 32 21 -

5. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2005 election campaign for -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far?

A lot Some Not much No attention DK/NA 9/20-26/93* 1 25 50 22 3 - 10/16-18/93* 1 31 50 16 3 - 9/11-14/97* 1 12 41 36 10 - 10/25-29/97* 1 26 55 16 3 - 10/20-23/01* 21 47 25 7 - 10/14-19/05* 24 49 22 5 1

1 VARIED WORDING: HOW MUCH ATTENTION HAVE YOU BEEN ABLE TO PAY TO THIS YEAR=S CAMPAIGN FOR GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY B A LOT, SOME, NOT MUCH OR NO ATTENTION SO FAR?

6. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2005 election in November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election?

Definitely Probably Probably Definitely vote vote not vote not vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 79 17 2 1 1

NOTE: THOSE WHO SAID THEY WOULD ADEFINITELY NOT VOTE@ WERE NOT ASKED Q.7-12.

7. If the 2005 election for governor of New Jersey were being held today, would you vote for Jon Corzine, the Democratic candidate or Doug Forrester, the Republican candidate? CANDIDATES’ NAMES ARE ROTATED

Corzine Forrester Other Won’t vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 48 33 2 2 15 10/14-19/05*L 46 37 2 1 14 2 8. ASKED OF THOSE WHO DID NOT NAME A CANDIDATE IN Q.7: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Jon Corzine or more towards Doug Forrester?

Corzine Forrester Other Won=t vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 52 36 2 1 8 10/14-19/05*L 49 41 2 1 6

9. ASKED OF THOSE WHO NAMED A CANDIDATE IN Q.7: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

Made up Might change DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 65 33 2 10/14-19/05*L 66 32 2 CORZINE VOTERS 69 29 2 FORRESTER VOTERS 64 34 2

10. ASKED OF THOSE WHO DID NOT NAME CORZINE IN Q.7 OR Q.8: Would you consider voting for Jon Corzine or is that something you would not consider?

Consider Not consider DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 38 53 10 10/14-19/05*L 36 56 8 FORRESTER VOTERS 31 67 2

11. ASKED OF THOSE WHO DID NOT NAME FORRESTER IN Q.7 OR Q.8: Would you consider voting for Doug Forrester, or is that something you would not consider?

Consider Not consider DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 35 52 13 10/14-19/05*L 33 56 11 CORZINE VOTERS 27 66 8

12. ASKED OF THOSE WHO NAMED CORZINE OR FORRESTER IN Q.7 OR Q.8: Would you describe your support for (Jon Corzine/Doug Forrester) as strongly favoring him, or do you like (Jon Corzine/Doug Forrester) but with reservations, or do you support (Jon Corzine/Doug Forrester) because you dislike (Jon Corzine/Doug Forrester)?

Strongly favor Reservations Dislike other DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 30 49 16 6 10/14-19/05*L 32 48 15 5 CORZINE VOTERS 38 46 11 5 FORRESTER VOTERS 29 46 22 3

13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, do you expect Jon Corzine or Douglas Forrester to finally win the election for governor of New Jersey in November?

Corzine Forrester DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 55 22 23 CORZINE VOTERS 78 6 16 FORRESTER VOTERS 39 41 20

14. If the 2005 election for governor of New Jersey were being held today and acting governor Richard Codey was running as the Democratic candidate, would you vote for Richard Codey, the Democratic candidate, or Doug Forrester, the Republican candidate?

Codey Forrester Other Won't vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 53 34 1 1 11 10/14-19/05*L 53 35 1 1 11

3 15. As you may know, there is a public question on the ballot that would amend the Constitution of New Jersey to establish the office of Lieutenant Governor. If the election were being held today, would you vote for the amendment and create the office of Lieutenant Governor or would you vote against it?

For Against DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 55 25 21 10/14-19/05*L 57 23 19

16. Is your opinion of Richard Codey favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Richard Codey yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 45 12 22 21 -

17. Is your opinion of favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Frank Lautenberg yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/19-24/02* 46 21 16 16 1 10/14-19/05* 26 24 19 31 1

18. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 36 55 8 - -

19. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 59 31 9 1 1

20. Is your opinion of former Governor Tom Kean favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Tom Kean yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 47 13 14 25 1

21. Is your opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Hillary Rodham Clinton yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 10/14-19/05* 43 36 15 6 -

4 22. What do you think is the most important issue in deciding how YOU vote in this November's election for governor of New Jersey?

10/20-23/01* 10/19-24/02*1 10/14-19/05* Abortion 4 2 2 Corruption 3 Guns 3 3 Environment 1 1 1 Economy 11 4 Gas/Heating oil crisis 1 Property taxes 21 Taxes, general 26 10 19 Morals/principals/scandals of candidates 8 5 Education 14 6 7 The elderly 2 1 Campaign ads/tone/debates 5 - Medicare 1 1 - Social Security 1 1 Health care 1 2 3 Prescription drugs 2 - George W. Bush 1 - Democrats 1 1 1 Republicans 1 - 1 Crime 1 - - War 1 - Iraq 1 - Terrorism - - Misc. Social issues 1 2 Jobs/employment 2 3 3 Stem cell research 1 Affordable housing 1 Budget 2 Other 27 18 7 DK/NA 18 20 14

1 QUESTION READ: A. . . ELECTION FOR SENATE FROM NEW JERSEY@

ROTATE Q.23 AND Q.24 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA 10/20-23/01 58 12 30 10/19-24/02 50 15 35 10/14-19/05 48 24 28

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA 1 10/19-24/02 52 18 30 10/14-19/05 40 21 39

1 QUESTION READ: LOOKING BACK, DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY FRANK LAUTENBERG HANDLED HIS JOB AS UNITED STATES SENATOR?

5 25. How would you rate the condition of the New Jersey economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?

Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 9/20-26/93* 1 40 41 15 3 9/11-14/97 11 67 14 5 3 10/20-23/01* 3 73 17 4 3 10/19-24/02* 3 57 29 7 3 10/14-19/05 4 54 26 12 3

26. In general, do you think New Jersey's economy is getting better, getting worse, or is it staying about the same?

Better Worse Same DK/NA 10/20-23/01* 13 28 55 3 10/14-19/05 13 33 52 2

27. Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?

Right thing Should have stayed out DK/NA 10/14-19/05 39 55 5

28. Which of these comes closest to your view? 1. Abortion should be generally available to those who want it; OR 2. Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now; OR 3. Abortion should not be permitted?

Available Available but stricter Not permitted DK/NA 10/25-29/97 46 35 15 4 10/12-15/00* 51 32 14 3 10/20-23/01* 45 35 18 3 10/19-24/02* 47 34 16 3 10/14-19/05 52 32 14 3

29. How willing would you be to pay more state and local taxes to improve education -- would you be very willing, somewhat willing, not very willing, or not at all willing to pay more in taxes to improve education?

Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 21 34 16 25 3

30. How serious a problem do you think a lack of affordable housing is for New Jersey right now -- very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?

Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 47 31 14 5 4

31. Should legal immigration into the United States be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased?

Present level Increased Decreased DK/NA 10/14-19/05 30 11 55 4

32. In your community, how serious a problem is illegal immigration -- is it very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?

Very Somewhat Not too Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 13 24 29 25 9

6 33. As you probably know, property taxes provide a variety of local services, such as education and police. Do you think the local property taxes you pay are too high or are they about right? IF TOO HIGH, ASK: Are they much too high or just a little too high?

Much too high A little too high About right Too low(vol.) DK/NA 3/19-22/95 32 21 38 10 10/14-19/05 42 24 28 - 5

34. Do you think reducing property taxes in New Jersey is the kind of issue you would like to change the state’s constitution for, or isn’t reducing property taxes that kind of issue?

That kind of issue Not DK/NA 10/14-19/05 50 40 10

35. In order to reduce property taxes in New Jersey, some people have proposed giving all New Jersey property owners a 30 percent tax cut over three years based on the value of their property. Other people say this is the wrong kind of tax cut because it would mainly benefit the rich and not the middle class and the poor. What do you think? Should all property owners be given a 30 percent tax cut or is this the wrong kind of tax cut?

Support tax cut Wrong kind of tax cut DK/NA 10/14-19/05 37 55 8

36. Currently property owners in New Jersey receive rebates on the property taxes they pay. Some people have proposed increasing those rebates by 40 percent over four years based on their annual household income. Other people have said the rebate system is the wrong way to cut taxes. What do you think? Should all property owners be given increased rebates or is this the wrong way to cut taxes?

Support increased rebate Wrong way to cut taxes DK/NA 10/14-19/05 39 54 7

37. When it comes to reducing property taxes, which would you prefer — a property tax cut, a larger rebate or something else?

Tax cut Rebate Something else DK/NA 10/14-19/05 55 16 24 5

ROTATE Qs.40-50 WITH Qs.51-61 40. Do you think Jon Corzine has strong qualities of leadership, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 60 22 17

41. Do you think Jon Corzine has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life? IF NO, ASK: Do you think Jon Corzine has less honesty and integrity than most people in public life or about the same honesty and integrity as most people in public life?

More Less Same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 26 13 40 21

42. Do you think Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 53 35 11

7 43. Do you think Jon Corzine shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or doesn't he?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 56 25 19

44. If Jon Corzine is elected Governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 34 8 46 11

45. Do you have confidence in Jon Corzine's ability to make the right decisions about the economy of New Jersey or are you uneasy about his approach?

Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 41 45 15

46. If Jon Corzine is elected governor, do you think the economy in New Jersey will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

Better Worse Stay about the same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 21 15 56 8

47. From what you know about Jon Corzine, are many of his decisions influenced by special interests, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 45 31 23

48. Do you think of Jon Corzine as more of a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?

Liberal Moderate Conservative DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 47 28 9 16

49. If Jon Corzine were elected governor, how much influence do you think local party leaders in New Jersey would have on his decisions as governor -- a lot of influence, some influence, not much influence, or no influence at all?

A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 17 56 17 4 6

50. Do you think Jon Corzine understands the needs and problems of the average citizens of New Jersey, or doesn’t he?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 55 35 10

51. Do you think Doug Forrester has strong qualities of leadership, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 49 26 25

8 52. Do you think Doug Forrester has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life? IF NO, ASK: Do you think Doug Forrester has less honesty and integrity than most people in public life or about the same honesty and integrity as most people in public life?

More Less Same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 22 12 38 28

53. Do you think Doug Forrester cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 47 36 17

54. Do you think Doug Forrester shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or doesn't he?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 56 22 22

55. If Doug Forrester is elected Governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 33 15 42 10

56. Do you have confidence in Doug Forrester's ability to make the right decisions about the economy of New Jersey or are you uneasy about his approach?

Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 32 52 16

57. If Doug Forrester is elected governor, do you think the economy in New Jersey will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

Better Worse Stay about the same DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 16 22 52 9

58. From what you know about Doug Forrester, are many of his decisions influenced by special interests, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 42 28 30

59. Do you think of Doug Forrester as more of a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?

Liberal Moderate Conservative DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 11 31 42 16

60. If Doug Forrester were elected governor, how much influence do you think local party leaders in New Jersey would have on his decisions as governor -- a lot of influence, some influence, not much influence, or no influence at all?

A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 14 55 14 7 9

9 61. Do you think Doug Forrester understands the needs and problems of the average citizens of New Jersey, or doesn’t he?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 49 40 11

62. Do you think the candidates for Governor should be judged on both their political record and their personal life, or should they be judged only on their political record?

Political record and personal life Political record only DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 52 47 1

63. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate -- Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester -- do you think would do a better job of dealing with property taxes in New Jersey?

Corzine Forrester Both equal(vol.) Neither(vol.) DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 41 37 2 4 17

ROTATE Q.64 AND Q.65. 64. In general is your opinion of the national Republican party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable Not favorable DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 38 55 7

65. In general is your opinion of the national Democratic party favorable or not favorable? Favorable Not favorable DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 45 46 9

66. How common do you think corruption is in New Jersey politics -- is it widespread, or is it limited to a few isolated incidents?

Widespread Limited DK/NA 10/19-24/02* 55 38 6 10/14—19/05* 64 31 5

67. Which political party in New Jersey do you think has more corrupt politicians -- the Republican party or the Democratic party?

Republican Democratic Both equal(vol.) Neither(vol.) DK/NA 10/19-24/02* 15 25 31 2 28 10/14-19/05* 21 31 26 - 21

68. Do you think corruption in local government is a part of the way things work in New Jersey, or do you think local government can be run without corruption?

Can be run Way things work without corruption DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 33 62 6

69. Do you think what you are currently paying for housing is more than you can afford, about as much as you can afford, or could you afford more if you wanted?

More As much Could afford more DK/NA 10/14-19/05 27 51 18 4

10 70. How much do higher prices for gasoline affect you personally -- a lot, some, not much, or not at all?

A lot Some Not much Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 55 28 9 6 1

71. As a result of the recent increase in gas prices, have you cut back on household spending or other things?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05 56 43 1

72. How concerned are you about being able to pay your heating bills this winter -- a lot, some, not much, or not at all?

A lot Some Not much Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 44 26 11 16 3

76. How proud are you to live in New Jersey -- extremely proud, very proud, moderately proud, only a little proud, or not at all proud?

Extremely Very Moderately Only a little Not at all DK/NA 10/14-19/05 18 27 35 11 7 2

77. Would you say you personally are very concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live, or not?

Yes No DK/NA 10/14-19/05 32 68 -

78. Do you think New Jersey is adequately prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?

Prepared Not DK/NA 10/14-19/05 25 63 12

79. What do you think Jon Corzine has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as Governor or attacking Doug Forrester?

Explaining Attacking DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 28 54 17

80. What do you think Doug Forrester has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as Governor or attacking Jon Corzine?

Explaining Attacking DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 26 58 16

81. Do you think either of these candidates for Governor from New Jersey -- Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester -- has attacked the other UNFAIRLY? IF YES: Who attacked unfairly?

Corzine Forrester Both equal(vol.) Neither(vol.) DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 10 10 32 26 22

82. Do you think of your vote for Governor this fall as a vote in support of George W. Bush, a vote against George W. Bush, or don't you think of your vote this fall as being about George W. Bush? 11

Support Against Not about Bush DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 11 27 58 4

83. So far, would you be more likely to describe the 2005 election campaign for governor from New Jersey as interesting or dull?

Interesting Dull DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 40 54 6

86. My last few questions are for background only. Compared to four years ago, in general, is your family's financial situation better today, worse today, or about the same as four years ago?

Better Worse Same DK/NA 10/14-19/05 27 30 43 1

87. These days, how hard is it to keep up with your bills -- very hard, somewhat hard, somewhat easy, or very easy?

Very hard Somewhat hard Somewhat easy Very easy DK/NA 10/14-19/05 18 50 23 8 1

88. Do you currently rent your home, or are you buying it with a mortgage, or is it entirely paid for?

Rent Mortgage Paid for DK/NA 10/14-19/05 22 54 22 3

12 For the following questions on registration and voting, it's important that our information be accurate. I'd appreciate your taking some time to think about these answers. Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote? IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for John Kerry, George W. Bush, or Ralph Nader?

Voted, won’t Kerry Bush Nader say whom(vol.) Didn't vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 42 40 2 3 11 1

Did you vote for Governor of New Jersey in 2001, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for Governor of New Jersey in 2001? IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for or Jim McGreevey? Voted, won’t Schundler McGreevey say whom(vol.) Didn't vote DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 20 44 1 31 4

How long have you lived at the address where you live now - less than one year, one to two years, three to four years, or 5 years or longer?

Less than one year 1-2 years 3-4 years 5+ years DK/NA 10/14-19/05* 6 10 15 68 -

Would you say you attend religious services every week, almost every week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, or never?

Almost Once/twice Few times Every week every week a month a year Never DK/NA 10/14-19/05 21 9 14 33 23 1

Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married?

Married Widowed Divorced Separated Never married DK/NA 10/14-19/05 57 9 9 2 22 -

Generally speaking, do you usually consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Republican Democrat Independent DK/NA 10/13-18/81 24 35 37 4 9/20-26/93 30 32 33 6 10/16-18/93 28 33 35 4 3/19-22/95 29 31 31 9 9/11-14/97 30 28 34 7 10/25-29/97 30 33 30 7 10/12-15/00 23 39 30 8 10/20-23/01 25 34 30 11 10/19-24/02 26 36 33 6 10/14-19/05 27 35 33 5

13 How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal Moderate Conservative DK/NA 10/13-18/81 21 44 29 6 9/20-26/93 26 40 29 5 10/16-18/93 21 46 29 4 9/11-14/97 26 41 28 5 10/25-29/97 24 44 28 4 10/12-15/00 26 44 23 7 10/20-23/01 25 43 27 6 10/19-24/02 25 45 25 5 10/14-19/05 23 44 28 6

What is your religious preference today?

Protestant Catholic Jewish Other None DK/NA 10/14-19/05 32 44 4 4 13 2

What was the last grade in school you completed?

Not a HS Some College Post HS grad grad college grad grad Refused 10/14-19/05 5 40 25 20 11 -

How old are you?

18-29 30-44 45-64 Over 64 Refused 10/14-19/05 19 32 31 18 1

Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, or not?

Hispanic Not Hispanic DK/NA 10/14-19/05 7 92 1

Are you white, black, Asian or some other race?

White Black Asian Other DK/NA 10/14-19/05 78 13 3 3 2

Was your total family income in 2004 UNDER or OVER $50,000? IF UNDER, ASK: Was it under $15,000, between $15,000 and $30,000, or between $30,000 and $50,000? IF OVER, ASK: Was it between $50,000 and $75,000 or between $75,000 and $100,000 or was it over $100,000?

Under $15,000- $30,000- $50,000- Over $15,000 $29,999 $49,999 $74,999 $75,000 Refused 10/14-19/05 5 13 15 23 36 8

Male Female 10/14-19/05 48 52

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