THE WORLD IN 2021 The world in numbers Countries

europe 36 Ireland 37 Sweden 38 Japan north america 41 Paraguay 42 Iraq 35 Austria 36 Italy 37 Switzerland 38 Kazakhstan 40 Canada 41 Peru 42 Israel 35 Belgium 36 Latvia 37 Turkey 39 Malaysia 40 Mexico 41 Uruguay 42 Jordan 35 Bulgaria 36 Lithuania 37 Ukraine 39 New Zealand 26 United States 41 Venezuela 42 Kenya 35 Croatia 36 Netherlands 37 United Kingdom 39 Pakistan 42 Lebanon 35 Czech Republic 36 Norway 39 Philippines latin america middle east & 42 Libya 35 Denmark 36 Poland asia 39 Singapore 40 Argentina africa 42 Morocco 35 Estonia 36 Portugal 38 Australia 39 South Korea 40 Bolivia 41 Algeria 42 Nigeria 35 Finland 37 Romania 38 Bangladesh 39 Sri Lanka 40 Brazil 41 Angola 42 Saudi Arabia 35 France 37 Russia 38 China 39 Taiwan 40 Chile 41 Cameroon 42 South Africa 35 Germany 37 Slovakia 38 Hong Kong 39 Thailand 40 Colombia 41 Egypt 42 Syria 36 Greece 37 Slovenia 38 India 39 Uzbekistan 41 Cuba 41 Ethiopia 42 Zimbabwe 36 Hungary 37 Spain 38 Indonesia 39 Vietnam 41 Ecuador 41 Iran

GDP Top ten fastest-growing countries % change on a year earlier British Antigua & Macau Guyana Libya Virgin Is Sint Maarten Peru Albania Barbuda Maldives St Lucia -5 0510 15 20 . . . . . . . . . .

Post-pandemic rebounds will pro- North America Western Europe Eastern Europe duce a sharp rise in global and some regional growth rates, but none of . . . the larger countries will expand by enough to enter the top ten. Instead, the list is dominated by small states, Britain half of them island economies that Russia Canada are counting on the return of holi- France daymakers. Syria United States Middle East & Macau’s chart-topping growth rate north Africa China S Korea Japan (35%) will bring only some relief from Libya Mexico Egypt the catastrophic collapse in tourism . India . and gambling that lopped two-thirds Venezuela Vietnam off the territory’s economy as covid- 19 struck. Lockdowns devastated Asia Indonesia tourism in the British Virgin Islands, Latin Angola Sint Maarten, Antigua & Barbuda, America Peru Brazil . St Lucia and the Maldives, too, from Sub-Saharan excluding Japan, Australia which 2021’s striking growth rates . Africa Australia and New Zealand will represent only a partial rebound. S Africa . The others in the top ten have their Australasia own stories. Libya’s high growth rate reflects a modest recovery . from catastrophe, in this case civil war, which will include a significant increase in oil output. Albania’s Climbing back Food for thought economy suffered its own covid-19 GDP per person, $ at purchasing-power parity Commodity prices, % change on a year earlier, blow as well as contagion from the  = annual average deep recession in Italy, a vital trade China 200 40 partner, but will regain all the ground lost in 2020. Guyana stands alone on Crude oil this list as a country barely affected 175 by the virus and is instead riding a 20 wave of offshore oil development. India Food, feedstu€s and beverages The largest country in the top ten, 150 Peru, will benefit from rising copper Germany 0 output and higher prices. US Britain 125 Industrial Canada raw materials -20 2021 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. Inflation: year-on-year annual average. S Africa 100 Dollar GDPs calculated using 2021 forecasts Brazil for dollar exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or -40

© The World In 2021, The Economist Newspaper Limited, London Newspaper Limited, Economist In 2021, The World © The purchasing-power parity, shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding. 2010 12 14 16 18 20 21 2016 17 18 19 20 21 Czech Republic resurface as the health crisis sub- Europe sides. Infections have been relatively GDP growth 4.4% few, but the economy is reeling from GDP per head $24,800 (PPP: $42,830) a recession in key export markets. Winners and losers from the pandemic rescue Inflation 1.9% Persistent unemployment and falling Biggest net contributors and beneficiaries from the EU funding package Budget balance (% GDP) -3.9 wages will hurt growth. % of GDP -5 0510 15 20 25 €bn Contributions Receipts Population 10.7m Croatia
. . Bulgaria . . The prime minister, Andrej Babis, leads Finland Greece . . an uneasy coalition of the centrist GDP growth 2.4% Latvia . . ANO movement and the centre-left GDP per head $50,780 (PPP: $51,330) Slovakia . . Czech Social Democratic Party, reliant Inflation 1.2% Austria
. . Sweden
. . on a pact with the far-left Communist Budget balance (% GDP) -4.3 Netherlands . 
. Party of Bohemia and Moravia, but will Population 5.5m Germany . . approach elections in October hope- Ireland . . ful of a second term. He will focus on Sanna Marin, who became the Source: European Commission post-pandemic recovery at home and world’s youngest prime minister pursue a pro-EU foreign policy, while when her predecessor was forced pressing Brussels for more funding. out by labour strikes, has benefited Austria Bulgaria Manufacturing and consumer demand from the suspension of political will rally, edging back to 2019 levels. hostilities during the covid-19 GDP growth 4.7% GDP growth 3.7% emergency. But feuding within the GDP per head $53,123 (PPP: $60,280) GDP per head $10,840 (PPP: $25,230) governing coalition in areas such as Czechs keep spending Inflation 1.7% Inflation 2.5% climate policy will re-emerge. The Czech Republic, private consumption Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 per person, $’000 Finns, a far-right opposition party, Population 8.7m Population 6.9m 12 will make hay as unhappiness over immigration and austerity rises. The government entered the covid- Parliamentary elections are planned 9 19 crisis with ample fiscal ammuni- for spring 2021, but volatile politics tion and will spread largesse far and could produce an earlier contest. 6 France wide to mitigate the impact of the In late 2020 the ruling centre-right GDP growth 7.1% 3 virus. The government, a coalition Citizens for European Development GDP per head $43,000 (PPP: $49,670) of the centre-right Austrian People’s of Bulgaria party gave in to mass 0 Inflation 1.5% Party and the Greens, is Europe’s anti-corruption protests and Budget balance (% GDP) -7.4 2013 15 17 19 21 first to unite a centre-right party called for a new constitution, to be Population 65.4m and an environmentalist party. With approved by an assembly chosen in a only an 11-seat majority, it will be snap election. If the proposal fails to Emmanuel Macron, the president, forced to seek support from others, win parliamentary approval, a regular Denmark will revamp his wide-ranging policy including from the far-right Freedom general election will be held in March GDP growth 4.1% platform to focus on recovery from Party, to retain power. The economy or April, in which the ruling party GDP per head $61,280 (PPP: $60,780 the economic slump brought on by will rally, but not by enough to hopes to come out on top. Inflation 0.5% covid-19. France’s stimulus plan is offset the contraction of 2020, with to watch: Eyes open. Bulgaria was Budget balance (% GDP) -2.7 unusual in relying on supply-side weak tourism and cautious consum- subjected to post-accession monitor- Population 5.8m reforms, including tax cuts, rather ers holding it back. ing after it joined the EU in 2007. The than demand-boosting measures. reviews had been expected to end, An early and strict lockdown, coupled Mr Macron is betting these will be but weak progress on corruption and with generous fiscal intervention, limited enough to restore his public image Belgium legal reforms will keep the scrutiny the impact of covid-19 on health and ahead of elections in April 2022. GDP growth 5.4% in place. the economy, and a rebound in 2021 will Social unrest will return as unem- GDP per head $46,150 (PPP: $53,220) restore the economy to its 2019 position. ployment rises. The economy won’t Inflation 1.0% The prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, will regain all of its lost ground. Croatia Budget balance (% GDP) -5.1 benefit from an atmosphere of national Population 11.6m GDP growth 4.7% unity spurred by the crisis, and divisions Germany GDP per head $14,950 (PPP: $28,210) between her Social Democrat-led minority The parties making up the minority Inflation 1.1% government and its “Red Bloc” centre-left GDP growth 4.6% caretaker government, the centre- Budget balance (% GDP) -4.7 allies will be buried for now. GDP per head $48,160 (PPP: $56,870) right New Flemish Alliance and the Population 4.1m to watch: Pillow talks. The European Inflation 1.0% Socialist Party, should overcome Federation of Sexology will hold its Budget balance (% GDP) -3.6 deep antipathy and assemble a per- Andrej Plenkovic stayed on as prime 15th biennial congress in the city of Population 82.9m manent coalition, if only to keep the minister after elections in July 2020, Aalborg in June. rising far-right Vlaams Belang out leading a coalition headed by his cen- The Christian Democratic Union of power. If they are unable to reach tre-right Croatian Democratic Union. (CDU) of the fourth-term chancellor, agreement, fresh elections are a In his second term, Mr Plenkovic Estonia Angela Merkel, will start 2021 under distinct possibility. Any coalition will will rein in his party’s right wing and GDP growth 4.3% a new party leader; Armin Laschet, a be wobbly and, once the covid-19 pursue closer ties within the EU, GDP per head $24,590 (PPP: $39,130) centrist state premier, is the leading emergency subsides, will struggle to including Schengen membership and Inflation 2.7% contender. As the CDU’s candidate agree on the direction of policy. The adoption of the euro. The country Budget balance (% GDP) -4.3 for chancellor, he would also be economy will suffer local lockdowns coped well in the initial stages of the Population 1.3m favourite to win the general election until mass vaccination is available, covid-19 pandemic but will take a big in late 2021. The field will remain and recovery from the deep reces- economic hit as crucial tourism traf- The government of prime minister polarised by immigration and cli- sion will be sluggish. fic slows, regaining less than half the Juri Ratas, a coalition of the Centre mate policy, but the CDU is emerg- to watch: Degrees of separation. The ground lost in 2020. Party, the Eurosceptic Conservative ing strengthened from the pandemic governing coalition may offer more to watch: Brussels bonanza. Croatia’s People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) and and should lead the next coalition devolution to the regions, especially share of the EU’s $850bn covid-19 the conservative Isamaa, has set government. Germany responded in labour-market, transport and financial-support package will be the aside its internal divisions to con- to covid-19 with a rare bout of fiscal health policy, to subdue long-sim- biggest of any member state relative front covid-19, but disagreements generosity and its recession will be merinng separatist tendencies. to its GDP, at 22.4%. over issues such as immigration will shallower than the EU average. THE WORLD IN 2021 to watch: Going underground. along with the Greens, took office at 2021 IN PERSON Work is scheduled to start on the the pandemic’s height but at least has Fehmarnbelt tunnel between Germany some warning of the second great chal- Nicola Sturgeon, the daughter of a dental nurse, has been a and Denmark. At 18km it will be the lenge: the definitive departure in 2021 toothache for British governments since becoming Scotland’s world’s longest combined road-and-rail from the EU of a key trade partner, first minister in 2014, with her relentless campaign for Scottish immersed tube tunnel. Britain—perhaps without a trade deal independence. She will be seeking a majority for her Scottish to soften the blow. Border arrange- National Party in elections for the Scottish Parliament in May, ments between Ireland and Northern and has a fair chance of winning one. She will be helped by the Pandemic splurge Ireland will be resolved only at the last failure of other British parties to appeal to Scottish voters, and the frustration Germany, budget balance, % of GDP minute, so some disruption to trade is of EU-supporting Scots with Brexit. Her bid to achieve a second independence inevitable. Covid-19 recovery permit- 2 referendum—after a first, in 2014, went narrowly against the nationalists—faces ting, the coalition will press for greater economic headwinds. But, as with Brexit, emotion will outweigh economics in a 0 spending on health, housing and referendum, if Westminster can eventually be arm-twisted into granting one. -2 welfare, and (on behalf of the Greens) decarbonising the economy. -4 Lithuania of the far-right Progress Party in early 2020, the coalition relies on opposition -6 Italy GDP growth 3.8% support to pass legislation, slowing -8 GDP growth 5.8% GDP per head $22,230 (PPP: $40,360) progress on its policy agenda. Low oil 2000 05 10 15 21 GDP per head $33,630 (PPP: $42,610) Inflation 1.6% prices mean less export income, but Inflation 0.8% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.4 the well-heeled sovereign oil fund Budget balance (% GDP) -5.2 Population 2.7m gives the government some fiscal room Population 60.4m to soften the impact of the pandemic, Greece A shifting coalition was replaced by which it has done with wide-ranging GDP growth 3.5% National interest has helped unite a an equally fragile governing alliance support measures. GDP per head $19,680 (PPP: $31,230) fractious coalition government, but the in elections in October 2020, led by to watch: Medical trip. The Norwegian Inflation 0.2% prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, lacks the opposition Homeland Union- Association for Psychedelic Science, Budget balance (% GDP) -3.7 the backing to advance basic reforms Lithuanian Christian Democrats. The which researches mind-bending drugs Population 10.4m to the economy, such as cutting red country’s longer-term goals—address- and their clinical potential, aims to tape and reducing corruption. Asset ing a low birth rate, mass emigration hold its first conference in 2021. Freed temporarily from the strait- purchases by the European Central and strengthening ties with the EU jacket of EU budget demands, the Bank will underwrite Italy’s shaky and NATO—will remain, but repairing centre-right government of Kyriakos sovereign debt, as long as the country the damage from covid-19 will be the Poland Mitsotakis will focus on recovering returns to strict fiscal discipline as the priority. The economic recovery will be GDP growth 4.2% the loss of nearly a quarter-century of pandemic subsides. The economy will substantial, but will not wipe out the GDP per head $16,100 (PPP: $35,000 growth to the pandemic. With a huge endure one of Europe’s most severe losses of 2020. Inflation 2.4% fiscal gap and a public debt around virus-induced recessions and recovery Budget balance (% GDP) -3.9 double the economy’s size, the fight- will be slow. The budget gap will nar- Population 37.8m back will be slow. Financial support row from a 2020 blow-out and public Netherlands equal to nearly 18% of GDP from the debt will decline modestly as a per- GDP growth 4.1% The government, led by the socially EU rescue fund will help, but as living centage of GDP. GDP per head $55,980 (PPP: $59,140) conservative and economically inter- standards fall, the government will to watch: Sense of proportion. The Inflation 1.1% ventionist Law and Justice party, will need all the goodwill it has earned governing coalition will push for an Budget balance (% GDP) -2.1 press ahead with institutional reforms from its sound handling of the crisis. all-proportional electoral system that Population 17.4m that include placing the judiciary would make it harder for the resurgent under greater political control and right-wing Lega and far-right Fratelli The ruling coalition, formed after restraining independent media. The Hungary d’Italia to win power. almost seven months of post-election EU will grumble, but Poland’s allies in GDP growth 4.8% negotiations in 2017, lacks a majority the bloc will head off punitive action. GDP per head $16,600 (PPP: $34,260) in either house and has limped through Budgetary support and a rally in Latvia Inflation 2.7% its term. Even so, thanks to a mostly private consumption will help restore Budget balance (% GDP) -3.9 GDP growth 4.9% positive public response to its handling most of the economic ground lost Population 9.6m GDP per head $17,680 (PPP: $22,850) of the pandemic, it should emerge to the pandemic, itself modest by Inflation 0.9% on top from elections in March, with European standards. A weak currency and high debt levels Budget balance (% GDP) -2.4 the People’s Party for Freedom and have denied Viktor Orban’s govern- Population 1.9m Democracy—led by the prime minister, ment the ammunition to fight the eco- Mark Rutte—as the largest party. Its Portugal nomic effects of the pandemic, though The centre-right government took programme of tax cuts will take sec- GDP growth 5.0% an early lockdown limited the damage. office just in time to confront the ond place to reviving the economy. GDP per head $23,410 (PPP: $35,430) A $6.5bn grant from the EU rescue start of the covid-19 outbreak, and to watch: Rescue resentment. Critics Inflation 0.4% fund will support the recovery, offset- duly declared a state of emergency. will attack the coalition’s support for Budget balance (% GDP) -3.0 ting a contraction in other EU aid. Mr As the economy rallies, fault lines the EU rescue pact, which will require Population 10.2m Orban, in his third consecutive term in the coalition will re-emerge. a net payment equal to 3.8% of GDP. and backed by a strong majority, will New Unity, the party of the prime The second-term minority govern- centralise power, defying EU pressure. minister, Krisjanis Karins, is the ment of the prime minister, António smallest in the coalition, while Norway Costa of the Socialist Party, will find it three allied parties are new to gov- GDP growth 3.0% harder than in its first term to secure Ireland ernment. Two more, the populist GDP per head $70,130 (PPP: $66,670 ) parliamentary support for its legisla- GDP growth 4.3% Who Owns the State? party and the Inflation 1.4% tive agenda, though pandemic-induced GDP per head $84,630 (PPP: $90,870) Eurosceptic National Alliance, will Budget balance (% GDP) 1.3 solidarity will help for a while. After a Inflation 0.5% push policy away from the coun- Population 5.4m budget surplus in 2019, virus-related Budget balance (% GDP) -5.3 try’s long-standing centre-right spending caused the deficit to balloon Population 5.0m consensus. Reliance on exports An effective pandemic response has and outlays will be constrained in the has made the economy especially strengthened the position of the cen- coming years. The economic blow from Micheal Martin, the prime minister vulnerable during the crisis, but ris- tre-right coalition heading into elec- the domestic lockdown and interna- leading the first coalition between ing European demand will support tions in September. Acting as a minor- tional-travel bans was substantial, and rival parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, growth in 2021. ity government since the withdrawal recovery will be slow. THE WORLD IN 2021

Personalities party and its partners gled to agree on a migration policy exploration rights in the eastern Back under water took office during the lockdown and that will head off a challenge from Mediterranean. Portugal, budget balance, % of GDP deployed a range of fiscal measures. the far-right Sweden Democrats 2 The coalition, though united around an without offending liberal sensi- Ukraine 0 anti-corruption agenda, will struggle to bilities, and this will remain a live -2 agree on spending priorities, and out- political issue as temporary legisla- GDP growth 5.7% spoken party leaders could clash. The tion expires in 2021. A coalition GDP per head $3,750 (PPP: $13,630) -4 economy will rally, but not by enough agreement that would have shifted Inflation 6.7% -6 to restore 2020’s losses. economic policy rightwards will Budget balance (% GDP) -4.4 -8 remain on hold as the government Population 41.7m strives to restore the economy. -10 Slovenia to watch: Last dance. Avicii, a The ambitious reform programme 2013 15 17 19 21 GDP growth 5.0% superstar DJ and songwriter who proposed by the president, Volodymyr GDP per head $24,740 (PPP: $40,150) took his own life in 2018 at the age Zelensky, was knocked sideways by Inflation 1.5% of 28, will get his own museum in the pandemic, and the lockdown Romania Budget balance (% GDP) -5.1 Stockholm. erased much of the economic growth Population 2.1m achieved since the shock of Russia’s GDP growth 4.2% annexation of Crimea in 2014. Cracks Switzerland GDP per head $13,050 (PPP: $32,650) The prime minister, Janez Jansa of the in Mr Zelensky’s Servant of the People Inflation 2.8% centre-right Slovenian Democratic GDP growth 3.5% party, papered over during the pan- Budget balance (% GDP) -6.6 Party, leads the latest in a succession GDP per head $84,770 (PPP: $70,270) demic, will reappear as the emergency Population 19.1m of fragile coalitions. The adminis- Inflation 0.3% subsides. International creditors will be tration, like its three immediate Budget balance (% GDP) -1.2 patient for now, but a return to reforms After a hiatus when the main parties predecessors, may not finish its Population 8.7m will be required if Ukraine is to keep put on a united front in the face of term. Mr Jansa’s sympathies with up with its bills, while simmering con- the pandemic, political instability climate sceptics and anti-immigration The right-wing Swiss People’s Party flict in the east will weigh on growth is returning. The main opposition nationalists will spark more popular (SVP), which holds the largest prospects. Social Democratic Party is in disarray, protests. Covid-19 infections and share of parliamentary seats and and the minority government, led fatalities were relatively light, but an two places in the seven-member by the National Liberal Party (PNL), economy dependent on tourists and Federal Council (the cabinet), faces United Kingdom will serve out the rest of the parlia- supply-chain links with hard-hit Italy a rising challenge from the Greens, GDP growth 6.9% mentary term, which runs until early has suffered disproportionately and the fastest-growing party. An SVP- GDP per head $40,290 (PPP: $47,130) 2021. The parliamentary election, recovery will take time. sponsored referendum on limiting Inflation 0.5% due to be held by March, will lead to EU immigration was rejected in a centre-right coalition centred on September 2020, further damaging Spain the PNL. The rally from the pandemic the SVP’s flagging brand. A strict Lost ground recession will be limited. GDP growth 6.8% covid-19 lockdown, which provoked Ukraine, real GDP, $bn at 2010 prices GDP per head $29,600 (PPP: $40,450 rare street protests, suppressed 150 Inflation 0.9% contagion and deaths but at a high Russia Budget balance (% GDP) -7.4 economic cost, which in 2021 will be 140 GDP growth 3.0% Population 46.8m only partially repaired. 130 GDP per head $10,540 (PPP: $28,470) to watch: Outsiders. Switzerland and Inflation 3.9% One of Europe’s most severe out- Britain will implement a trade deal rep- 120 Budget balance (% GDP) -2.0 breaks of covid-19 brought an initial licating existing arrangements when 110 Population 148.9m flush of unity to Spain’s turbulent Britain’s post-Brexit transition runs out party politics. But ideological enmity at the end of 2020. Covid-19 slammed the economy, and quickly resurfaced, and there was 2010 15 21 low oil prices, soft global demand, cau- no guarantee in late 2020 that the tious fiscal policy and Western sanc- coalition of the centre-left Spanish Turkey tions will slow the recovery in 2021. Socialist Workers’ Party and the far- GDP growth 3.6% Constitutional changes have strength- left Podemos would make it beyond GDP per head $7,690 (PPP: $29,900) Budget balance (% GDP) -7.1 ened the office of the presidency and the vote on a 2021 budget, let alone Inflation 10.8% Population 68.2m allowed Vladimir Putin to occupy it, complete a term that nominally Budget balance (% GDP) -4.8 in theory, until 2036. The government ends in 2023. The health crisis was Population 85.0m The country will start 2021 fully will deploy a mix of tools to quell matched by an economic one, from outside the EU, perhaps with no new opposition, from arrests and poison- which recovery will be slow and The president, Recep Tayyip trade agreement with its largest part- ings to online trolls. As ever, Mr Putin’s accompanied by sharp declines in liv- Erdogan, responded to the slump ner. The impact of this will be signifi- regime will project Russian influence in ing standards. caused by covid-19 by pressing the cant in some sectors, but the blow its neighbourhood and beyond. central bank to relax monetary policy from covid-19 will be far greater. A and by pushing more credit into the late and poorly designed response Sweden economy through state-run banks, brought a terrible toll in lives and Slovakia GDP growth 2.9% undermining the country’s already economic damage, though decisive GDP growth 6.4% GDP per head $55,690 (PPP: $56,880) fragile financial stability. The foreign fiscal interventions mitigated the GDP per head $20,470 (PPP: $34,090) Inflation 1.2% creditors on which the country relies blow for many. The Conservative Inflation 1.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 are becoming increasingly cautious, Party government of the prime Budget balance (% GDP) -4.6 Population 10.2m while scarce foreign reserves will minister, Boris Johnson, had earlier Population 5.5m make it hard to defend the lira, deep- pledged an investment programme A relatively hands-off response to ening the risk of a currency crisis. to lift productivity, but that could be The country suffered one of Europe’s the covid-19 outbreak ultimately The country is heading for a hard curtailed by demands for fiscal con- lightest health impacts from covid- did not cushion the economy and landing in 2021 and is becoming ever solidation within his own party. 19 but one of its heaviest economic contributed to a high death rate, more isolated. to watch: Scoxit. Elections for downturns, and 2021 will be dedicated especially in old-age homes, under- to watch: Sultan lotion. The hunt for the Scottish Parliament and the mainly to clawing back the lost ground. mining early support for the cen- oil and gas to reduce the country’s expected renewal of the Scottish The right-leaning government of the tre-left coalition government of the dependence on imports will expand, National Party’s majority will fuel prime minister, Igor Matovic, and his prime minister, Stefan Lofven. A ensuring friction with Greece and demands for a new referendum on Ordinary People and Independent cross-party commission has strug- other regional players over energy- Scottish independence. THE WORLD IN 2021

by covid-19 will delay plans. The tives in job creation and infrastruc- Asia economy will rebound, recovering ture investment will make progress. much of the ground lost to the virus, Economic growth stalled under but the impact of Beijing’s assault covid-19, which surged late in 2020, Covid crater on but will rebound strongly as exports Real GDP , % change from  the “one country two systems” and domestic demand recover. 4 model will prove hard to combat. Japan 0 India GDP growth 1.7% GDP growth 6.7% GDP per head $39,950 (PPP: $42,060) -4 GDP per head $2,150 (PPP: $6,850) Inflation 0.5% Inflation 4.0% Budget balance (% GDP) -8.7 OECD average -6.2% -8 Budget balance (% GDP) -6.8 Population 126.1m Population 1.39bn Vietnam China S Korea Pakistan Australia Thailand N Korea India The ruling Liberal Democratic Party Myanmar Indonesia Taiwan Hong Kong N Zealand Japan Singapore In his second five-year term, the (LDP) elected Suga Yoshihide as prime minister, Narendra Modi, is the party’s president, and hence widely popular and the opposition prime minister, in late 2020, after Australia government under the prime minister, is weak, further strengthening his the resignation for health reasons of Sheikh Hasina Wajed, now in its third hand. But the virulent covid-19 Abe Shinzo, Japan’s longest-serving GDP growth 1.6% successive term. Even so, the ruling outbreak that erupted late in 2020 prime minister. Mr Suga will main- GDP per head $56,700 (PPP: $53,160) Awami League’s grip on political and after the relaxation of an initial tain his predecessor’s approach Inflation 1.5% military power and its entrenched national lockdown—and the exten- towards revitalising the economy. A Budget balance (% GDP) -5.6 patronage networks will guarantee its sive economic damage caused by patchy pandemic response has erod- Population 25.8m survival. The economy will rally, but it the restrictions—highlight the risk ed the government’s popularity, but will take another year to recover the of social unrest. Communal clashes the LDP and its legislative partner, The economy contracted sharply 5%-plus trend GDP growth of the past and protests by religious groups Komeito, will dominate lower-house in 2020 despite an early govern- decade. will erupt from time to time. A pro- elections due in October. (An earlier ment response to covid-19, and the to watch: Locked up. Protests will spike gramme of market liberalisation and snap election is possible.) Measures rebound will be modest as global trade if Khaleda Zia, an opposition leader infrastructure investment will be to combat the pandemic brought a stays soft. The prime minister, Scott jailed for corruption but freed on accelerated to help rally an economy steep recession, and recovery will Morrison, will lose popularity as pan- health grounds, is sent back to jail. that has been be slow. demic-imposed hardship persists, and battered by the pandemic. to watch: Passing the torch. The this could be the last full year in office to watch: Pacific gravity. Further delayed games of the XXXII for the three-term Liberal-National China flare-ups will occur over infrastruc- Olympiad will take place in the coalition as elections approach in GDP growth 7.3% ture works on the northern border summer of 2021, though the 2020 2022. Fallout from the crisis, internal GDP per head $11,300 (PPP: $18,710) with China, allying India more tight- branding will remain. disagreement over energy and climate Inflation 3.1% ly with countries seeking to restrain policy, and the government’s thin Budget balance (% GDP) -5.0 Chinese influence in the region. Kazakhstan majority will hamper progress on its Population 1.40bn legislative agenda. GDP growth 3.5% Indonesia to watch: Island chain. The Pacific The president, Xi Jinping, will use GDP per head $8,930 (PPP: $26,820) Agreement on Closer Economic political capital gained from the rapid GDP growth 4.3% Inflation 6.3% Relations Plus (PACER Plus), a trade response to covid-19 to press his GDP per head $4,260 (PPP: $12,840) Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 and aid pact linking Australia, New domestic agenda, sidelining critics, Inflation 3.2% Population 19.0m Zealand and nine Pacific island nations, tightening his grip on the security Budget balance (% GDP) -6.0 takes effect in 2021. apparatus and promoting allies to Population 269.8m The president, Kassym-Jomart influential positions. In the face of Tokayev, will consolidate his control mounting antipathy from Western and The president, Joko Widodo (known as his long-serving predecessor, Bangladesh regional powers, the government will as Jokowi), enjoys strong public sup- Nursultan Nazarbayev, watches from GDP growth 5.8% redouble its commitment to self-suf- port but has no party of his own, behind the throne. A second pan- GDP per head $2,200 (PPP: $5,550) ficiency in areas including energy and so must offer compromises on his demic surge (and second lockdown), Inflation 5.6% technology, while exploiting the image policy programme to maintain politi- compounded by a slump in oil prices, Budget balance (% GDP) -6.8 of a hostile world to stoke domestic cal elbow-room. He is backed in the brought a long run of economic Population 166.3m support. The economy will bounce legislature by the Democratic Party growth to an end, though the govern- back from the slowdown in 2020. of Struggle and Golkar party and has ment responded with aid measures The shock to employment and liv- representatives of six parties in his paid for in part from its well-stocked ing standards from the covid-19 cabinet. As a result, stability will take sovereign-wealth fund. The rebound pandemic will fuel opposition to the Hong Kong precedence over reform, but initia- will be quick, with the lost ground GDP growth 2.4% GDP per head $50,670 (PPP: $62,030) 2021 IN PERSON Catch-up delayed Inflation 1.4% Bangladesh, real GDP Budget balance (% GDP) -2.2 In a political set-up that shuns personality, let alone personal- % increase on a year earlier Population 7.6m ity cults, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, prime minister of Vietnam and 8 one of the favourites to take over as general secretary of the The territory’s draconian new Communist Party, fits the bill to a tee. A seasoned administra- 6 national­-security law will keep pro- tor with a background in management studies, he has shown 4 testers off the streets, the “localist” a steady hand, not least in his effective handling of covid-19— movement out of public debate and aided by a healthy distrust of China’s initial reassurances. Still, his lack of experi- 2 the legislature packed with pro-gov- ence in the propaganda side of national leadership could be costly. His focus will ernment officials. The authorities be to tackle an entrenched system of back-scratching among politicians and 0 will seek to quell wider discontent business leaders, sometimes crossing the line into corruption, which is off-put- 2013 15 17 19 21 by tackling structural long-term ting to foreign investors. The new team will also need to find an accommodation issues such as a housing shortage, with China on territory the two countries dispute in the South China Sea. but the negative fiscal drag imposed THE WORLD IN 2021 fully recovered before year-end. The but with their leaders in jail or under South Korea to watch: Word play. The 13th English oil price will also tick up, though not investigation they will not threaten as a Lingua Franca conference (ELF13), by much. the government’s survival. Public GDP growth 2.4% delayed from 2020 by covid-19, will spending and record remittances from GDP per head $32,870 (PPP: $44,530) take place in Tainan in the summer. Growth interrupted expat workers cushioned the blow Inflation 1.3% from covid-19, but getting back even Budget balance (% GDP) -5.9 Kazakhstan, real GDP Thailand % change on a year earlier to the recent modest rate of growth Population 51.3m 6 will take a couple of years. GDP growth 3.2% 4 The president, Moon Jae-in, will GDP per head $8,000 (PPP: $18,940) redouble his reform push, buoyed by Inflation 1.1% Philippines 2 his Minjoo Party’s success in securing Budget balance (% GDP) -5.1 0 GDP growth 5.8% a parliamentary super-majority in the Population 70.0m GDP per head $3,610 (PPP: $9,150) 2020 general election. The govern- -2 Inflation 3.2% ment got a pre-election boost from Protests against the military-backed -4 Budget balance (% GDP) -6.8 its effective response to the corona- government of Prayuth Chan-ocha, a Population 111.0m virus outbreak, which minimised the 2013 15 17 19 21 former coup leader, and against the impact on health and the economy. king, are growing, drawing in middle- The economy will bounce back Policy will focus on inequality, boost- class urbanites who previously strongly from the covid-19 recession, ing small and medium-sized busi- supported the establishment in the Malaysia falling short of recent trends but more nesses and deepening labour-market country’s long-running “red shirt” GDP growth 5.0% than compensating for the ground lost reforms. The economy will return to versus “yellow shirt” power struggle. GDP per head $10,620 (PPP: $28,330) in 2020. A surge in infections threat- trend growth. The government should be able to Inflation 1.3% ened to undermine the authority of to watch: Back to the brink. North outlast the protesters, but a military Budget balance (% GDP) -6.9 the president, Rodrigo Duterte, and a Korea’s traditional belligerence will crackdown cannot be ruled out. As Population 32.8m squeeze in living standards will further return as the love-in with Donald covid-19 subsides, the government inflame public opinion. Constraints on Trump fades into memory. will try to improve business condi- Politics have not yet settled since the civil liberties, including a gag on the tions for foreign investors. A partial ousting in 2018 of the United Malays media, will mute opposition. economic recovery is all that can be Sri Lanka National Organisation (UMNO) after to watch: Cover girl. Mr Duterte will expected. more than 60 years in power. There GDP growth 2.3% have been two governments since and, GDP per head $3,940 (PPP: $13,580) Speed bump Uzbekistan judging by the weakness of the current Inflation 5.1% Philippines, real GDP, $bn at 2010 prices Perikatan Nasional coalition and its Budget balance (% GDP) -8.5 GDP growth 6.3% leader, the prime minister, Muhyiddin 500 Population 21.5m GDP per head $2,220 (PPP: $8,970) Yassin, 2021 will bring a third, though Inflation 12.2% elections are not scheduled until 400 In elections in 2020, a landslide Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 2023. Mr Muhyiddin may prevail in an win for the Sri Lanka People’s Front Population 33.9m early vote, but a return to an UMNO 300 (SLPP) gave sweeping authority premiership is possible. Political uncer- 200 to the government, headed by the The president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, tainty will damage an economy already powerful Rajapaksa family (Mahinda will push ahead with tax reform and reeling from covid-19. is prime minister and Gotabaya privatisation. The government will try president). They immediately vowed to improve relations with neighbours 2010 15 20 25 to tweak the constitution to increase while maintaining key economic part- New Zealand presidential powers. The main nerships with China and Russia. The GDP growth 1.4% opposition party is, like the SLPP, pandemic slashed demand at home GDP per head $40,760 (PPP: $41,680) spend the year polishing the image of supportive of the Sinhala-speaking and abroad, but the economy will Inflation 1.6% his daughter, Sara Duterte, mayor of Buddhist majority. A gradual pick-up bounce back strongly in 2021. Budget balance (% GDP) -7.8 Davao City and potential presidential in exports will help the economy to watch: Close combat. The capital, Population 5.0m candidate in 2022. recover, though only partially, from Tashkent, will host the World Judo the covid-19 recession. Championships after the original Strengthened by a widely lauded choice, Vienna, was ruled out over a response to covid-19, the prime min- Singapore government scandal. Taiwan ister, Jacinda Ardern, led her ruling GDP growth 3.9% Labour Party to a resounding election GDP per head $64,190 (PPP: $101,990) GDP growth 1.5% Vietnam victory in October. The centre-left party Inflation 1.3% GDP per head $27,500 (PPP: $57,480) won 49% of the vote and a rare outright Budget balance (% GDP) -6.6 Inflation 0.2% GDP growth 5.2% parliamentary majority, which will push Population 5.6m Budget balance (% GDP) -0.9 GDP per head $3,780 (PPP: $11,430) policy to the left. The public-health suc- Population 23.6m Inflation 2.1% cess came at the cost of a deep reces- Notwithstanding the biggest stimulus Budget balance (% GDP) -4.8 sion. Recovery will be slow. package in its history and the suc- The president, Tsai Ing-wen, and Population 98.2m cessful suppression of the virus, the her Democratic Progressive Party country suffered one of Asia’s biggest (DPP) secured a second term in A new team will take over the rul- Pakistan recessions in 2020 and recovery for 2020. The DPP’s victory came with ing Communist Party after the 13th GDP growth 0.8% the export-led economy will be slow. a reduced majority, but the defec- National Congress in early 2021, GDP per head $1,180 (PPP: $4,690) Preparations by the prime minister, Lee tions were mainly to sympathetic probably with Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Inflation 6.0% Hsien Loong, to transfer power to the parties, so its legislative advantage the prime minister, becoming gen- Budget balance (% GDP) -7.6 fourth generation of leaders from the will be only slightly eroded. Policy eral secretary. The transition will be Population 225.2m ruling People’s Action Party, in charge will focus on benefits and house- smooth, and the government’s pro- since 1959, will be put on hold after building to tackle inter-generational gramme of economic liberalisation The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf govern- the PAP’s disappointing performance inequality, infrastructure invest- will resume following the covid-19 ment under the prime minister, Imran in the general election of 2020. Instead ment and promoting next-gen interruption, including measures to Khan, will retain power through a tacit he will focus on improving government information technology and renew- attract foreign direct investors and agreement with the army, which runs performance in areas that concern able energy. A decisive response to restructure state-owned firms. The security policy and foreign affairs. younger voters, such as immigration, covid-19 minimised both public- economy will slot back into its high- Opposition parties will combine to reducing housing costs and improving health and economic impacts, and growth groove as the slowdown obstruct the legislative programme, social welfare. activity will rally. caused by the pandemic fades. THE WORLD IN 2021

North America Latin America

Back to the shops $bn,   Turning on Retail sales, % change on a year earlier Energy demand, constant 2005 $bn     6 , Canada United States 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 3 Brazil   0 Mexico

 -3 Colombia

-6 Argentina

Mexico -9 Chile

-12 Ecuador 2015 16 17 18 19 20 21 Peru

Canada they should retain their majority. The Argentina support from a fragmented opposition government will pursue redistribu- to get anything done. A contest for the GDP growth 4.0% tive policies to support the poorest, GDP growth 6.0% leadership of the lower house, set for GDP per head $45,930 (PPP: $50,650) but a slow recovery following a deep GDP per head $8,530 (PPP: $20,500) February, will clarify battle lines, with Inflation 1.5% recession in 2020 means there will be Inflation 45.3% opposition centre-right parties keen Budget balance (% GDP) -8.3 less to go round. Budget balance (% GDP) -6.4 to control the legislative agenda. A Population 38.1m to watch: Northwards. After focus- Population 45.6m relaxed covid-19 response protected ing little on foreign policy, Mr López the economy but caused many deaths. The Liberal Party government, led by Obrador will seek better relations The government of the president, to watch: Centred. Elected as a far- the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, with America, Mexico’s main eco- Alberto Fernández, may get help from right populist, Mr Bolsonaro will woo lacks a majority in its second term nomic partner and home to almost the IMF after a deal with private credi- centrist support to avoid impeach- and must seek support among the all of its 12m emigrants. tors in 2020. It will be welcome: covid- ment, without straying from his base. three main opposition parties to pass 19 will leave a big hole in an economy legislation. The country rallied round that was already labouring under price Mr Trudeau as covid-19 struck, but he United States controls and structural weaknesses, Chile will find the going much harder as the GDP growth 3.6% and another devaluation is inevitable GDP growth 4.6% pandemic fades. Policy slip-ups could GDP per head $64,790 (PPP: $64,790) if IMF support is not forthcoming. The GDP per head $13,940 (PPP: $25,010) bring the government to an early end. Inflation 1.7% government will lose some seats in Inflation 2.7% The economy was hit by the virus and Budget balance (% GDP) -9.2 mid-term elections in October but Budget balance (% GDP) -8.1 low oil prices in 2020 and although Population 332.9m should retain a majority. Inflation will Population 19.2m the health crisis will pass, oil will stay drift upwards as some price controls cheap. Full recovery will take years. Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential are eased. Voters overwhelmingly approved a election will return America to a sem- plan to rewrite the Pinochet-era con- blance of normalcy, and will shift policy stitution in a referendum in late 2020. Mexico left of centre. But legislating will be Bolivia The vote was held in response to mass GDP growth 3.3% difficult, and the pandemic is taking a GDP growth 3.8% anti-inequality protests that began in GDP per head $8,940 (PPP: $19,160) severe toll—the country has just over GDP per head $3,350 (PPP: $8,090) November 2019. Drafters of the new Inflation 3.9% 4% of the world’s population but has Inflation 1.5% constitution will be elected in April and Budget balance (% GDP) -3.2 suffered nearly 20% of recorded covid- Budget balance (% GDP) -8.8 their work will be ratified, again by ref- Population 130.3m 19 deaths. The availability of a vaccine, Population 11.8m erendum, in 2022, potentially shifting a even though “anti-vaxxers” may shun long-standing cross-party political con- The president, Andrés Manuel López it, will support the economic recovery. Luis Arce of the Movement for sensus to the left. An effective covid- Obrador, and the government led by Even so, the bounceback will be under- Socialism party won a presidential 19 response shielded the economy and his Morena party face a reckoning at whelming; America’s $21.5trn econ- election in late 2020, which will mean will ensure a decent recovery. mid-term elections in June. They will omy won’t return to 2019 levels until a return to the interventionist policies to watch: Copper bottom. Copper be helped by popular anti-corruption late in 2021. Racial-justice protests will that marked his time as economy min- production will rally, replenishing a measures and a weak opposition erupt regularly; police will need years ister under the former president, Evo sovereign-wealth fund depleted by a but hurt by a late and lacklustre of retraining before they learn to ask Morales. The country must deal with generous fiscal response to the virus. response to covid-19. On balance, questions first and shoot later. deep economic and fiscal imbalances amid competing pressures to promote a recovery from a deep, coronavirus- Colombia 2021 IN PERSON induced recession. GDP growth 4.4% With Latin America’s age of dictators largely over, the route to GDP per head $5,550 (PPP: $15,080) Inflation 2.9% absolute rule today starts at the ballot box. The latest caudillo Brazil to tread this road is Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador, Budget balance (% GDP) -5.4 who won election in 2019 to become the region’s youngest GDP growth 3.0% Population 51.3m national leader (he turns 40 in 2021). Confronting the estab- GDP per head $6,940 (PPP: $15,040) lished parties, he campaigned against poverty, crime and Inflation 2.9% The president, Iván Duque of the right­ corruption, but the democratic mask quickly fell away. In February 2020, piqued Budget balance (% GDP) -7.5 wing Democratic Centre party, will by a hostile legislature, he marched his soldiers up the aisle like a latter-day Population 213.3m resume ambitious pro-growth reforms Cromwell. When the Supreme Court struck down his harsh covid-19 measures, as the health crisis ebbs, including he persisted. When gang murders spiked, he crammed jailed gang members The president, Jair Bolsonaro, will pri- changes to taxation, labour laws, pen- together, hands tied and stripped to their underwear. Many citizens like his hard oritise re-election in 2022 over pushing sions and health care, alongside the line, and legislative elections scheduled for February should strengthen his grip. his pro-market reforms in a congress sale of state assets. But this will serve where his Liberal Social Party requires to restore only part of the heavy losses THE WORLD IN 2021 from covid-19. The slow recovery will to become the presidential candidate add to social tensions over inflows of of the ruling Colorado Party in prima- Middle East and Africa Venezuelan migrants, peace arrange- ries due early in 2021, although the ments with the FARC guerrilla move- election itself is not until 2023. The ment and violence in the countryside. president, Mario Abdo Benítez, will State of ships focus on shoring up political alliances Exports, % change on previous year     Job line amid a public backlash over corrup- 50 Colombia, unemployment rate, % tion allegations in the government. The recession will be one of the 20 region’s mildest. 0

15 Peru -50 10 GDP growth 9.2% 5 GDP per head $6,340 (PPP: $12,220) -100 Inflation 2.3% Iraq Jordan Iran Algeria Morocco Kenya S Africa Zimbabwe 0 Budget balance (% GDP) -7.0 Ethiopia Cameroon Egypt Israel Nigeria S Arabia Syria Lebanon Population 33.5m 2013 15 17 19 21 A particularly harsh pandemic, eco- nomically and medically, will provide Algeria up from its pandemic dip as natural gas ammunition to nationalist parties starts to flow through a new offshore Cuba ahead of April’s general election, in GDP growth 1.3% terminal at Kribi port. Delayed infra- GDP growth 2.3% which the centre-right incumbent, GDP per head $3,710 (PPP: $10,870) structure projects will resume. GDP per head $9,880 (PPP: $13,480) Martín Vizcarra, cannot stand. The Inflation 2.2% Inflation 6.0% winner will inherit an economy Budget balance (% GDP) -12.5 Egypt Budget balance (% GDP) -5.5 bashed by the region’s biggest reces- Population 44.5m Population 11.3m sion but recovering nonetheless, GDP growth -2.3% after a decade of strong growth. Public protests will re-emerge as the GDP per head $3,710 (PPP: $12,380) A pro-market reform agenda, already Congress will be health emergency subsides, reflecting Inflation 5.1% proceeding slowly, was suspended as fragmented and rowdy. frustration with the regime over its Budget balance (% GDP) -10.6 covid-19 struck and will resume halt- to watch: Freed up. If Mr Vizcarra perceived failure to address griev- Population 102.8m ingly as the emergency subsides. The escapes arrest at the end of his term, ances that forced long-time autocrat president, Miguel Díaz-Canel,­ will grad- he will be the first of the country’s Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign in 2019. The president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, will ually yield day-to-day policymaking to past five presidents to do so. The re-drafted constitution, due to be focus on reviving the economy from its the prime minister, Manuel Marrero, in approved by referendum in late 2020, viral funk. He has plenty of time: a con- a departure from the centralised lead- does little to demote the business, mil- stitutional reform allows him to rule ership structure. The epidemic has bat- Uruguay itary and political alliance that wields until 2030, pending re-election in 2024, tered a fragile economy; the recovery GDP growth 3.5% power. The economy will languish after and with a legislative majority and little will be feeble. GDP per head $14,710 (PPP: $23,960) a deep recession in 2020. opposition, he probably will. A tighter Inflation 7.5% post-covid budget will bring protests, Budget balance (% GDP) -4.0 but the regime is well protected by Ecuador Angola Population 3.5m support from the armed forces. GDP growth 5.1% GDP growth -0.1% GDP per head $5,720 (PPP: $11,000) Luis Lacalle Pou of the centre-right GDP per head $2,000 (PPP: $6,410) Ethiopia Inflation 0.0% National Party leads a majority Inflation 19.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 government flush with public sup- Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 GDP growth 3.1% Population 17.8m port after effective management of Population 33.9m GDP per head $900 (PPP: $2,250) covid-19. Labour unions will resist Inflation 19.3% The president, Lenín Moreno, will efforts to reform social security, and The president, João Lourenço, Budget balance (% GDP) -6.0 approach the general election in taxes could rise to narrow the post- will push to dismantle the power Population 117.9m February unloved by the public, pandemic fiscal gap, but productivity networks established over nearly obstructed by the opposition major- and competitiveness reforms should 40 years by his predecessor, José The risk of civil war will grow after the ity in congress and assailed by a gain ground. Two big construction Eduardo dos Santos, but will move prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, sent the host of challenges. Fiscal straits projects, a pulp mill and an overhaul slowly to avoid a backlash from army into the northern region of Tigray meant there was little support for a of ports and railways, will help the vested interests. The IMF will provide to quell opposition. Delayed legisla- population wracked by coronavirus, economy recover. support to bridge a fiscal crisis. Low tive elections will probably take place and austerity will hamper recovery. oil prices will compound the eco- early in 2021, reinforcing the majority Protests will resume as the health nomic blow from covid-19, yielding a held by the ruling Prosperity Party. emergency eases and the next gov- Venezuela second successive year of recession. Economic liberalisation will take a back ernment, probably under centrist GDP growth -1.7% seat as the government tries to restore control, will inherit a fractious public GDP per head $2,110 (PPP: $4,480) its high-growth credentials, stunted by Cameroon and a limp economy. Inflation 640% two plagues—covid-19 and locusts. Budget balance (% GDP) -16.7 GDP growth 2.5% Population 27.8m GDP per head $1,500 (PPP: $3,670) Paraguay Inflation 2.7% Iran GDP growth 2.9% The president, Nicolás Maduro, will Budget balance (% GDP) -5.0 GDP growth 2.0 % GDP per head $4,930 (PPP: $13,070) remain in office for now amid plunging Population 27.2m GDP per head $6,150 (PPP: $11,510) Inflation 2.1% living standards and growing hostility Inflation 21.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.1 abroad, but his regime is unsustain- A growing armed separatist movement Budget balance (% GDP) -6.7 Population 7.2m able. The longer he survives the more in the Anglophone west will threaten Population 85.0m chaotic his demise will be. If the army stability, compounding discontent with An exemplary early response to covid- withdraws support, he is finished. The the seven-term president, Paul Biya, The pandemic was an additional blow 19 was marred by a later surge in economy, in dollar terms, contracted over his response, and over attacks in to an economy already assailed by cases.That undermined a potential bid by two-thirds between 2018 and 2020 the far north by Boko Haram, a militant Western sanctions, implacable opposi- by the health minister, Julio Mazzoleni, and will shrink again in 2021. Islamist group. The economy will pick tion by America and a sharp decline THE WORLD IN 2021 in oil prices—all of which points to a Kenya win for a hardliner in the presidential 2021 IN PERSON election in June. The slow response to GDP growth 2.0% Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni, has held power since covid-19 will stoke public anger and GDP per head $1,790 (PPP: $ 4,460) 1986 and the advantages of incumbency should see him to a a humanitarian crisis in an already- Inflation 6.0% 6th term in elections due early in 2021. But he faces a young weakened health system. After a deep Budget balance (% GDP) -9.0 challenger in Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Afrobeats recession in 2020, a strong recovery in Population 55.0m singer Bobi Wine, who built his “People Power” movement China will boost Iran’s economy. after becoming an independent MP in 2017, then launching a political party in An effective response to covid-19 will July 2020. The self-styled “ghetto president” promises his mostly young, mostly raise support for the president, Uhuru Iraq poor, red-beret-wearing supporters relief from Mr Museveni, who is using the Kenyatta. Tensions within and between pandemic to launch a police crackdown and harass and intimidate his political GDP growth 0.7% the two main parties will become more opponents. The odds are against Mr Kyagulanyi, but he just might uncork a GDP per head $4,450 (PPP: $ 10,070) intense as the government enters its flood of popular sentiment that carries him to power. Inflation 1.9% final year, and a split in Mr Kenyatta’s Budget balance (% GDP) -13.2 Jubilee Party is on the cards as support- Population 41.2m ers of his deputy, William Ruto, seek The pandemic compounded a dev- family. As the pandemic fades, he will a platform. Emergency international astating blockade of the country’s oil rev up his policy of social liberalisation Oil markets will take time to recover funding will help revive the economy. exports by the LNA, and the economy blended with rigid political control. from reduced global demand caused to watch: Building bridges. Mr will only partially recover. by the pandemic, and Iraq’s oil-reliant Kenyatta’s stronger footing will allow economy will stagnate after a deep him to pursue a rewrite of the constitu- South Africa Morocco recession. The transitional prime tion discussed with the opposition, GDP growth 1.5% minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, will try including a dilution of executive powers. GDP growth 1.6% GDP per head $5,110 (PPP: $12,390) to rally the economy and confront the GDP per head $3,180 (PPP: $7,700) Inflation 4.1% country’s deep governance challenges, Inflation 0.8% Budget balance (% GDP) -9.0 Lebanon but only if he secures the job perma- Budget balance (% GDP) -8.2 Population 60.0m nently in elections called for June. GDP growth 1.1% Population 37.3m GDP per head $9,440 (PPP: $12,620) The president, Cyril Ramaphosa, will Inflation 98.8% Growth will resume after covid-19 and have his hands full sustaining a post- Israel Budget balance (% GDP) -7.7 drought wracked the economy, though pandemic economic rebound, fore- GDP growth 2.5% Population 6.8m persistent unemployment and regional stalling a debt crisis via spending cuts, GDP per head $42,390 (PPP: $40,320) inequalities will fuel discontent. This, preventing land reform from becoming Inflation 0.2% Nowhere is vulnerability to catastro- and divisions within the ruling Justice a land grab and just keeping the lights Budget balance (% GDP) -8.6 phe more in evidence than in Lebanon, and Development Party, will hamper on. He will face resistance from ele- Population 9.4m where even covid-19 was eclipsed by a the government, but it will retain its ments in the ruling African National fertiliser explosion in August 2020 that authority under the king, Mohammed Congress. The findings of a major anti- A unity government formed in obliterated Beirut’s port and brought VI. Expect a lukewarm economic rally. corruption report are due in March. the face of the emerging pan- down the government. The transitional demic envisaged the prime minister, prime minister, Mustafa Adib, resigned Binyamin Netanyahu, of the right- when he failed to form a government; Nigeria Syria wing Likud party, handing power Saad Hariri has taken over. A complete GDP growth 1.0% GDP growth -1.7% to Benny Gantz, of the centre-right economic meltdown cannot be ruled GDP per head $2,090 (PPP: $5,050 ) GDP per head $1,400 (PPP: $ 3,780) Blue and White party, in October, out. An IMF rescue package is possible Inflation 16.8% Inflation 54.5% for a further 18 months. But the if a new government can be formed. Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 Budget balance (% GDP) -6.9 coalition is shaky and may not see Population 211.4m Population 16.3m out its term. Fiscal support meas- ures will be withdrawn as the year Blast damage The main task for the president, Recession brought on by the pan- progresses, and unemployment will Lebanon, GDP, $bn at  prices Muhammadu Buhari, will be deal- demic will persist in an economy rav- rise, undermining the recovery. ing with the decline in the economy aged by war, international sanctions 50 to watch: The trial of Mr Netanyahu brought on by the pandemic and the and the blast in Beirut, a key regional on corruption charges will begin 45 related slump in oil prices. But he import route. Protests will increase in earnest in January. He may be 40 must also confront an Islamist insur- as economic hardship bites, but replaced as Likud leader regardless gency in the north-east, separatism the regime of the president, Bashar of the verdict. 35 in the south and anti-police protests al-Assad, has the resources and the 30 that erupted in late 2020. The crisis political clout to stay secure. A pro- will boost talk of market-friendly forma presidential election will take Jordan reforms, but the government’s place in April or May. GDP growth 2.1% 2013 15 17 19 21 resolve to pursue them will fade as GDP per head $3,690 (PPP: $8,420) the economy rallies. Inflation 0.9% Zimbabwe Budget balance (% GDP) -12.3 GDP growth 0.4% Population 11.6m Libya Saudi Arabia GDP per head $1,390 (PPP: $2,480) GDP growth 20.9% GDP growth 2.0% Inflation 223% Public discontent will mount over GDP per head $4,230 (PPP: $ 10,970) GDP per head $20,520 (PPP: $46,150) Budget balance (% GDP) -6.5 falling living standards, higher Inflation 7.7% Inflation 1.6% Population 15.1m unemployment and post-pandemic Budget balance (% GDP) -2.6 Budget balance (% GDP) -7.8 austerity. The virus will limit Population 7.0 m Population 35.9m Social strife, economic hardship and Western financial support and bring political instability were the best expatriate workers back home from A proxy war is pitting the self-styled The ailing king, Salman bin Abdel- the country could hope for before economically straitened neighbour- Libyan National Army (LNA) against Aziz al-Saud, will rely on his son, covid-19 struck. In its wake, the gov- ing states, adding to social strains. the UN-recognised Government of Mohammad bin Salman al-Saud, the ernment of the president, Emmerson There will be protests, but King National Accord, fuelled by inter- crown prince, to handle the fallout Mnangagwa, will face increasing Abdullah II will remain secure. national backers seeking regional from covid-19 and a drop in oil prices. popular protest. Mr Mnangagwa Fragile public finances further weak- influence. A UN-sponsored process In turn, his heir will prepare for his will sideline opponents and rivals ened by the pandemic response will of political normalisation will remain eventual accession to the throne by and hold on to power—as long as he hold back recovery. suspended until a ceasefire is brokered. suppressing rival members of the royal retains military support. THE WORLD IN 2021 The world in numbers Industries 43 Automotive 44 Food and farming 46 Metals and mining 43 Defence and aerospace 45 Health care 46 Retail 44 Energy 45 Infrastructure 46 Sport 44 Entertainment 45 IT 46 Telecoms 44 Financial services 45 Media 46 Travel and tourism Ten business trends for 2021

01 Bad debts pile up. Chinese banks’ 03 Electric-vehicle sales zoom ahead 06 Oil prices recover slightly to an 08 The price of gold is flat, on average, non-performing loans approach to 3.4m, from 2.1m in 2019. average of $45 a barrel, though as fears for the global economy $500bn—a 50% jump since 2019— Global car sales recover by 15% further lockdowns in major persist. If the pandemic worsens, while Syria, Lebanon and Yemen but finish short of pre-covid markets could knock $10 off that. the price could return to its all- navigate sovereign-debt crises. levels. Belt-tightening is in vogue. time high of $2,000 per troy ounce. Brent crude Average $ per barrel Gross fixed investment 04 International tourist arrivals . 09 Box-office revenues surge by 78%, % change on a year earlier .  globally climb by 8%, but are still . helped by postponed, high-profile India .  . World 15% below 2019 levels. Online film releases. But thanks to caps  meetings could replace one-third on cinema capacity, takings still      - of business travel.      02 To spur growth, governments 05 Airlines’ travails mean plane- 07 Ad spending bounces back by 10 Retail bankruptcies accumulate encourage infrastructure makers build only 60-70% as 6%, to $573bn, propelled by as sales rise by 3% but fall short spending. Gross fixed many large commercial aircraft delayed sports events such as of former highs. Worsening virus investment, a proxy, climbs by as they did pre-crisis. Boeing’s the Tokyo Olympics, which will outbreaks could erase growth 8% worldwide—and 18% in India. 737 MAX returns to the skies. generate $800m in advertising. altogether.

Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit, Morgan Stanley, Moody’s, Magna Research, PwC

accounted for more than half of the EV Business environment Automotive market, will see its share drop to 45%, Defence and aerospace despite extending tax breaks. The EU World GDP and trade will lead on growth as it tightens its % change on a year earlier emissions rules again and disburses GDP, real terms, at PPPTrade, $ value yet more subsidies for electrics. Tesla  and others will expand in China, while RAIN FAIR SUNNY China’s BYD will head for Norway, RAIN FAIR SUNNY  where four out of ten cars run on bat- Sales of cars in 2020 were expected teries. Self-driving cars will lag behind, The fortunes of commercial plane­ to shake off the sluggishness of recent though BMW will reach “level 3” makers in 2021 will be determined - years; instead, the pandemic brought automation, making cars that can drive by travellers’ willingness to fly, which disaster. Carmakers will get some relief themselves, conditions allowing. Firms will in turn depend on the course of -  from pent-up demand in 2021, when bent on going further will struggle. the pandemic. Airlines’ travails have      sales of both new passenger cars and Carmakers will combine forces to prompted billions of dollars of losses commercial vehicles will accelerate mend their dented finances. Honda will at Airbus and Boeing. The planemak- Another lost year for global growth by around 15% from the prior year. team up with General Motors in North ing duopoly has had to slash produc- looms. The world economy will expand Europe and America will lead the way America. Fiat Chrysler and Groupe tion and delay deliveries; more order by 4.8% but end the year smaller than but Asia, the usual driver of progress, PSA, newly merged, will become cancellations could follow. In 2021 before the pandemic. To blame will be has no deep slump to come back from Stellantis, overtaking GM to form the Moody’s, a rating agency, expects the weak incomes, high unemployment, and will be in a lower gear. No region world’s fourth-biggest carmaker. Some industry to churn out 30-40% less large sagging business sentiment and yet will regain its 2019 levels. Global sales car companies will prune plants to commercial aircraft than it did pre- more lockdowns. Widespread covid-19 will still be 5% lower than before the cut costs. Honda will close its British coronavirus. vaccinations may not happen before pandemic, at 84m vehicles. factory in Swindon in July; Nissan will Planemakers’ best hope is that late 2021. Government spending Electric vehicles will be sparkier, leave Barcelona in December 2021. disease-conscious consumers prove will prop up economies but store up with 3.4m sales in 2021—up from just Indonesia has also lost a Nissan plant willing to take short, domestic flights, credit risks for the future. China will 2.1m in 2019. China, which previously but will gain one from Hyundai, keen lifting demand for narrow-body jets. focus on its own recovery and splurge to expand in South-East Asia. New Boeing’s grounded 737 MAX (possibly less on foreign investment and trade. Electric-vehicle registrations ventures will offer solace elsewhere, renamed the 737-8) would be among Sino-American trade tensions will m too. Ineos, hitherto a petrochemicals them, once regulators clear it to fly . . . nonetheless flare again; expect more company, will begin making cars at a again. However, Boeing will first deliver “near-shoring” of supply lines. At least China former Daimler factory in France. the 450 already built. Its profits will that should speed trade’s revival after recover to $5.7bn in 2021, Moody’s an abysmal 2020. EU, EFTA & Britain to watch: Electric spin-offs. Irked by projects, well below the $13bn it made the higher share prices of pure-EV before the MAX fiasco. A challenge to North America 2021 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. brands such as Tesla, GM may sell a the MAX and Airbus’s 320 NEO could stake in its EV business. Hyundai plans loom closer as China’s Commercial World totals based on 60 countries accounting Asia excl. China for over 95% of world GDP. its own EV spin-off, Ioniq. Although Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) belated- [email protected] Other it will be a sub-brand, with no stake ly begins delivering its mid-size C919. sale, Hyundai’s share price should Defence will be the safer business. benefit. Many countries are set on military THE WORLD IN 2021

All Access” streaming service. Netflix Non-performing loans will lose some licensed content (nota- India, % of gross advances bly “The Office”) to rivals but will stay Fiscal years ending March st Covid-19 vaccines are being developed at record speed. Still, they must clear on top thanks to its vast content library the usual three-stage clinical trials (Russia’s Sputnik V being a notable excep- and popular algorithm-based viewing 15 tion). Testing is meant to prove a drug’s safety and effectiveness before regu- recommendations. latory clearance. Even after strict tests, though, problems can emerge months Box-office revenue will surge by 10 or years later. What if covid-19 vaccines turn out to have dangerous side- 78% in 2021 yet lag behind 2019 effects? Up to 7bn doses could be needed, so complications could be devas- levels by 38%, given caps on cinema 5 tating. Vaccine-makers, fearing liability claims, insist risks should not be theirs capacity. After a dire 2020, American to bear: most say they won’t profit from their vaccines until the pandemic takings will jump by 80% to $6.4bn, 0 ends. Governments are in a bind: controversy erupted in mid-2020 when says PwC, as delayed big-ticket films 2010 12 14 16 18 21 some countries granted AstraZeneca and others liability waivers. America (“Top Gun: Maverick”, for instance, and already exempts vaccine-makers from injury claims and pays out more than “Dune”, a sci-fi epic) lure back punters. $200m a year on their behalf. For governments, though, financial risks are But production hold-ups in 2020 will will also be tested by new payment outweighed by a potential political backlash if serious side-effects occur. Anti- stall long-awaited releases such as platforms (think WhatsApp Payments), vaxxers would not then be alone in rejecting vaccines: scepticism is already “The Batman”, from Warner Bros, for as the lines between banks, tech firms rife in parts of Europe and America, and in Japan. If the public spurns covid-19 another year, until 2022. and retailers blur. Digital currencies vaccines, the health consequences could be grave. To prosper, streaming platforms will add a further challenge: Russia and production houses alike must con- will allow their free circulation from jure up enticing new works. Filming has January and China is launching its own. modernisation and replacing outdated though backsliding is inevitable recovered in Asia but will hit a bottle- Stockmarkets that suffered in 2020 equipment. Geopolitical risks are rife, among Russia’s powerful private- neck in 2021 in Hollywood. Pandemic- will rebound, as those in Hong Kong pandemic or no: Sino-American ten- sector oil firms. Still, political strife related restrictions on shooting will and London weather political upheav- sions could even spread into the realm in Iran, Libya and Venezuela will help prod a few brave production houses als. Trading will widen as mobile apps of space-based weapons. America’s restrain supply. The price of bench- to tap artificial intelligence: “b”, a like Robinhood allow novice investors government, the biggest defence mark Brent crude will limp to an Hollywood sci-fi movie due to be made to dabble, bolstering stockmarkets in spender, is helping domestic weapons- average of $45 a barrel in 2021. in 2021, will star Erica, a Japanese developing countries. Insurance, too, makers. Still, even defence spending Oil’s tumble has dragged down humanoid robot. will widen its appeal as it recovers from may not escape cuts if pandemic- prices for liquefied natural gas. LNG’s 2020’s setbacks, with China leading the induced debt-worries multiply. cheapness will help boost demand by to watch: Microsoft ups its game. charge. Emerging-market premiums nearly 5%. A further increase will be Gaming wars are increasingly playing will shoot up by 7% in 2021, predicts to watch: War, virtually. Covid-19 driven by the continuing shift from out on cloud platforms, not consoles. Swiss Re, a reinsurance company. promises to spur defence strategists’ coal-fired to gas-fired power plants. Microsoft wants to harness its cloud use of virtual reality for war-gaming. Low prices for fossil fuels will tarnish expertise to do battle with Sony to watch: CIPS v SWIFT. The tussle “Synthetic environments” offered hopes that the post-pandemic world and Nintendo and next-generation- between China and America over by the likes of SoftBank-funded will have a green tinge, though solar competitors Google, Amazon and Hong Kong’s status may entangle Improbable help planners model power and wind-energy production Nvidia. Its Project xCloud, launched international payments. If America responses not just to conventional will again swell at double-digit rates. for Android smartphones in 22 coun- tries to block China’s access to SWIFT, threats but to a rampaging killer virus. tries in 2020, lets subscribers stream China will turn to its own Cross-Border Surely it could never happen. to watch: Blocked pipe. Gazprom’s console games on mobile devices. Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Nord Stream 2 pipeline linking Russia Microsoft’s cloud assault could be pro- Should CIPS prove cheaper than to Germany via the Baltic could final- pelled in 2021 by the arrival of its long- SWIFT, more of the global trading sys- Energy ly start pumping gas in the first quar- awaited game, “Halo Infinite”. tem could shift away from the dollar. ter. America will do its best to stop it. Its sanctions have already helped delay the $11bn project. America, Financial services Food and farming itself a burgeoning producer of natural gas, wants to loosen Russia’s RAIN FAIR SUNNY hold on the European market, but it can only delay the inevitable. Nord Energy demand collapsed during the Stream 2, once fully operational, will pandemic. Crude-oil consumption be able to carry 55bn cubic metres a RAIN FAIR SUNNY RAIN FAIR SUNNY fell as consumers and companies year to the EU, 11% of its pre-covid were locked down and oil-guzzling needs. Finance firms may not have caused Demand for food is stickier than tof- sectors such as travel were hit hard. the covid-driven economic crisis but fee, which in the midst of a global As the world economy picks itself up, will nonetheless bear the brunt of it pandemic bodes well for farmers pent-up demand will help the global Entertainment in 2021. Debt is already soaring and (if less so for consumers). The appetite for oil recover slightly, by bankruptcies will rise. American lend- Economist Intelligence Unit’s index 5%, to an average of 96m barrels a ers are well placed to withstand even of agricultural prices rose by just day in 2021. America and China, the the severest of scenarios. By contrast, under 1% in 2020 and will climb a two biggest oil addicts, will match European banks will brace themselves further 2% or so in 2021. Beverages this rate. Asia will be the source of for consolidations, with lenders in and grains promise to be particularly over 60% of new oil demand in com- RAIN FAIR SUNNY Greece and Cyprus particularly vulner- resilient. ing years. able. Indian banks’ non-performing For producers, though, troubles Oil companies have the tricky task Entertainment’s jazziest performer will loans will near 15% of all credits. await. A stronger dollar will suppress of matching output to the uncertain again be over-the-top (OTT) services China’s lenders will also struggle as bad poorer countries’ appetite for food economic trajectory. America’s shale such as video streaming. Still, OTT sub- debts near $500bn. Countries with the imports even as it encourages pro- producers are the chief losers from scriptions growth will slow as incomes weakest financial systems, including ducers to increase output. Trade pro- low prices. As billions of dollars of suffer, rising by just 11% in 2021 after Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, will navi- tectionism will provide plenty of grist their low-grade debt comes due in a 26% expansion in 2019, according gate sovereign-debt crises. for worriers. Food supply chains have 2021, expect more bankruptcies; to PwC, a consultancy. The appetite Banks will scramble to increase been rocked by the pandemic, which this will contribute to a plateauing for video will not keep pace with the loan-loss provisions, while central has also caused labour shortages. of US output. The OPEC-Russia deal blossoming range of viewing options. banks and governments juggle low In Britain, the shortfall will be com- to cut 5.8m barrels a day from oil ViacomCBS, a media giant, will weigh interest rates and deflation risks. pounded after the Brexit transition markets in 2021 will prop up prices, in with a revamped and renamed “CBS Regulators will keep close watch, but arrangement expires at the end of THE WORLD IN 2021

2020: tens of thousands of EU workers clinics. Pressure on prices in America global total. China wants to channel normally help British farmers harvest and China will slow growth of phar- cash towards improving its digital IT spending  , $trn produce. maceutical sales to 5%, despite those infrastructure, but more traditional % change on a year earlier A topsy-turvy 2021 lies in wait for vaccine sales. Even so, the industry targets (rail, road and urban infrastruc- commodities, including cocoa. A deal will be one of the few able to invest ture) will benefit, too. India’s spending, 0 0.5 1.01.5 Communications between market heavyweights Ghana in expansion. though much lower, will surge by 18% services 3 and Ivory Coast is supporting produc- as Narendra Modi’s government makes IT services 6 ers, but as global prices dip by 10% in to watch: Digital dilemma. Delayed by infrastructure a pillar of recovery. 2021, the cohesion between the two covid-19, the EU’s new Medical Device Elsewhere the setback for spend- Devices 2 may yet crumble. The coffee trade, Directive comes into full force in May ing will be longer-lasting. Under Joko Enterprise too, looks frothy. Prices of sought-after as regulators scurry to catch up with Widodo, Indonesia had hoped to throw software 7 Data-centre arabica beans will shrivel by 6% while smart-health apps and wearables. money at creating new connections 6 those of rival robusta beans will surge Fitbit and Apple are monitoring closely. between its myriad islands. But the systems by 16%; still, arabica will remain rough- president’s goals are under threat from ly twice as expensive. Coffee retailers both the virus and Indonesia’s paltry to $3.7trn, that will still be 3% less will have to cater to post-covid tastes. Infrastructure fiscal income (less than 14% of GDP). than before covid-19. Fewer workers Expect a new wave of coffee machines Big improvements to Indonesia’s infra- in offices means hardware demand and home-delivery services. structure will be elusive in 2021. will languish 14% below recent highs. Remote working also creates to watch: Vertical ascent. High-tech opportunities for online baddies. Even “vertical farming” could help overcome Information technology pre-pandemic, cybercrime losses covid-era food woes. Cultivation occurs RAIN FAIR SUNNY were projected to hit $6trn in 2021, indoors in stacked trays that can be twice the level in 2015. The raft of new tended by (sickness-immune) robots. Governments face a dilemma. e-commerce startups are prime targets Supply lines can be shortened because Infrastructure is capital-intensive for phishing sorties. So are telehealth farms tend to be located closer to and their debts have exploded: rich providers, which have been allowed consumers. Larger farms will sprout in nations’ debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed RAIN FAIR SUNNY by some regulators to weaken their 2021 in places as far-flung as Britain’s 120% by the start of 2021 and poorer defences as they struggle to cope with Bedfordshire and Houston, Texas. countries are building their own gar- The pandemic is giving a shot in the arm surging demand. gantuan piles. Yet infrastructure can to swathes of IT. Social distancing will offer a rewarding target for stimulus boost technologies including robotics, to watch: Big-tech opportunity. India’s Health care spending: the gap between the invest- the internet of things, virtual workspaces tech scene faces new challenges. ment needed globally and expected and video conferencing. Software will be Slowdowns in America and Europe will outlays runs into trillions of dollars. the top performer, with spending up by weigh on IT-services companies such Overall, the urge to spend will win 7% in 2021, topping 2019, Gartner fore- as Infosys and TCS. Amid Sino-Indian out in 2021. Gross fixed investment, a casts. As remote working spurs the need tensions, Indian e-commerce and rough proxy for infrastructure spend- for backup systems and cloud-based tech startups will have to look beyond RAIN FAIR SUNNY ing, will strengthen by 8% globally. It software, “infrastructure as a service” is Chinese investors for funds. Sensing an dropped by 10% in 2020 as coronavi- set to rocket by 28% to $64bn. Market opportunity, America’s tech giants will The rollout of covid-19 vaccines rus distracted governments and con- leaders such as Amazon, Google and pour billions into India in coming years. will be the hope and headache of struction workers stayed at home. Microsoft will race to add data centres; 2021. Finalising trials and scaling up Many of the keenest builders will Asia and Africa are prime targets. production will be hard, the costs of be in the developed world. Nine of the Purveyors of cutting-edge wearables Media delivery vast. Health-care workers 25 fastest-growing spenders will hail will seek to capitalise on the post- will be first in line for immunisation, from Europe, with France and Ireland lockdown popularity of mobile gam- particularly in rich countries. Gavi, growing by 20% or more. Britain, ing and “at-home entertainment” (or an international vaccine alliance, will too, will make it into the top 25 as its “Netflixing”). Apple may add augmented- lead efforts to provide at least 2bn Conservative government tries to use reality content to Apple TV+, a stream- doses for poorer countries. Overall, infrastructure improvements to boost ing service, in 2021 before launching RAIN FAIR SUNNY vaccine producers will earn up to the Midlands and the north of England. compatible headsets. In India, Reliance $100bn and draw fire if they are For scale of investment, though, no Jio plans to release AR glasses designed After declining by around 7% in seen to be profiteering. The anti-vax one will match China: its fixed-asset for the mass market. 2020, ad revenues will rise by 6% to movement will seize on any safety investment will rebound by nearly 7% The picture is not all rosy. Though $573bn, according to Magna Research. failures. in dollar terms to $6trn, 30% of the overall IT spending will grow by 4% Rescheduled sports events (see Sport) Meanwhile, covid-19 deaths will will loosen advertisers’ purse strings. ripple past 2m by April. Evidence will But the global ad-take will come up build of long-term effects, including $9bn short of pre-coronavirus days. brain damage and chronic fatigue. Asia-Pacific will grow fastest (by Hospitals will scramble to catch The average social-media user is widely imagined to be young and attention- 8%), helped by an expected $800m up with delayed non-covid care poor, but America’s social-media giants are neither youthful nor distracted. splashed out on the Tokyo Olympics. but struggle with quarantine rules. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Pinterest, Tumblr and Reddit are all North America, least hurt in 2020 Cancer deaths will also rise after over a decade old—ancient, in internet terms. Could 2021 be the year for a owing to political ad-spending in an delays in screening. Telemedicine new social-media star—and could Google, a serial flop in the sphere, be election year, will grow slowest (4%). will catch on rapidly everywhere, the one to create it? Google would surely love to stick it to Facebook, its Still, with $222bn in ads, America will as insurers step up to cover the arch-rival, which claims 75% of social-media traffic; Google-owned YouTube all but recover ground lost in 2020. bills. Mergers between hospitals in has just 4%. Critically, Google‘s ad revenues flagged in the pandemic, while Advertising via traditional media America will help cut costs, though Facebook’s soared. So Google has motive. What about the means? Orkut, an will just about return to positive terri- some deals will falter amid economic early Google entry, was displaced by Facebook. Google+ threw in the towel in tory. Newspapers and magazines will uncertainty. 2019. Even YouTube is losing its appeal among social-media addicts flocking shed yet more ad dollars, hastening the Global health-care spending, to 15-second videos. Yet YouTube gives Google access to 2bn monthly visi- transition to digital-subscription mod- squeezed during lockdowns, will tors. Meanwhile, Google’s Android operating system could help a new social- els, even in developing Asia. Revenues bounce back by just over 6% in dol- media app appear on the home screens of 75% of smartphones—providing for television and radio will expand lar terms. Asia will lead the way as rich usage data to attract fickle social-media fans. Google invests billions in by 2% and 1% respectively, according China’s latest five-year plan acceler- other “moonshots”; could it build a world-beating social-media platform? to Zenith Media. Out-of-home and ates reforms intended to spur inno- cinema ads will surge (by 16% and 65% vation among insurers, hospitals and respectively) following steep dips in THE WORLD IN 2021

2020, but fail to reach previous highs. sales in Vietnam and China growing by new sports such as skateboarding again) and VinSmart (Vietnam) will Ad placements on social media around 4% and the Philippines by 7%. and surfing. Medals will be made with claim new ground in Africa and Asia. and video content will proliferate. India, having taken a beating in 2020, metal recycled from 6.2m mobile Sino-American tensions, Brexit and More streaming companies will be will not regain its former lustre, with phones. The UEFA Euro 2020 football slowing economic growth will prod the tempted to launch ad-backed free sales up 4%—sluggish by its standards. tournament, also postponed, will avoid EU to loosen its competition policies. versions to snare viewers, as have Africa’s retail boom must wait: covid-19 possible travel bans by spanning 12 The overturning in 2020 of a ban on Pluto TV (owned by CBS), Peacock has blighted incomes there. Globally, European cities. Its sister tournament, a merger between O2 and Three will (Comcast) and India’s SonyLIV. User- sales will be lower than before the pan- the 2021 Copa América, will take place encourage other post-pandemic link- generated content on platforms such demic and retail, ever a cut-throat busi- in Colombia and Argentina. ups. Watch for consolidation in coun- as Instagram Reels or TikTok will find ness, will get bloodier. Rivalry between China, too, will stage postponed tries with more than three operators, favour. Video ads will get even shorter, emerging-market retailers and foreign competitions after lifting a ban on such as Spain. to attract eyeballs on Instagram Stories interlopers will intensify. Reliance international sporting events imposed or Facebook Thumbstoppers. Industries’ online marketplace, JioMart, in mid-2020. Not postponed—coro- to watch: Chipping Huawei. Once navirus permitting—will be the Rugby America’s sanctions sever supplies Retail sales League World Cup in Britain, which of crucial chips for Huawei’s smart- Metals and mining     % change on a year earlier has long been scheduled for late 2021. phones, its handset shipments could The success of these events will drive plummet by 75% in 2021. Huawei is set -6 -4 -2 0 246 the recovery of businesses in related to lose its status as the second-largest US industries, from hospitality to the smartphone vendor, but don’t write $85bn sports-betting market. it off. It has other business lines and Vietnam Even so, sponsors and advertisers a huge domestic market to fall back RAIN FAIR SUNNY China will be wary of renewing contracts as on—plus a big R&D budget to push for India corporate finances falter, while social self-reliance in chipmaking. Metals prices were flagging with over- distancing limits ticket sales. Crowds supply even before coronavirus, for Brazil will not live up to the name, though steel in particular. Amid the economic Britain fans unfazed by contagion risks are Travel and tourism wreckage, they have been hit hard likely to snap up refunded tickets. again—far harder than their agricul- Millions will be content to watch the tural cousins. The silver lining? Having will bring the fight to Amazon and action online, where the e-sports dwindled further in 2020, metals prices Walmart-owned Flipkart. industry will mount a $1.2bn chal- will bounce back faster in 2021. A Consumers’ covid-inspired buying lenge. TV sports rights will stay cheap moderate rise in demand will deplete habits will become ingrained. Under despite new bidders. That augurs badly RAIN FAIR SUNNY stocks and push up the EIU’s base- lockdown, 47% of Americans over for America’s National Football League, metals index by 5%, though prices will 55 started shopping more online, whose $1bn deal with Disney comes to Few industries were walloped harder not attain their former shine. according to an e-Marketer survey; a close after 2021. by the pandemic than travel and tour- Big spending on infrastructure in many new converts will stick around. ism. More tourists will venture forth in China, especially, ought to support Because online shoppers crave slick 2021, but they will face cancellations suppliers of industrial metals such as delivery services, sellers will be obliged Telecoms and quarantines. International arrivals copper. Indeed, the strength of China’s to invest in technology and logistics, in the world’s 60 largest economies will economic recovery will be pivotal favouring deep-pocketed players and rise by 8%—but languish 15% below for many miners. Producers will also encouraging tie-ups between retail, 2019 levels. Both leisure and business pray the Sino-American trade conflict tech and payments firms. In America, travel will still be suffering. Morgan does not harm carmakers, a source of click-and-collect sales will climb by Stanley reckons 31% of business travel demand bolstered by growing need for 10%, having ballooned by 60% in 2020. RAIN FAIR SUNNY will shift to online meetings. Millions of electric-vehicle batteries. Meanwhile, In the coming years more people tourism-related jobs will be at risk. strikes at copper mines in Latin will shop from their sofas, check Booming online shopping and remote All things being equal, Asia should America and Indonesia will restrain out goods using augmented reality working will fuel record demand for recover fastest, as Thailand and New output. Prices will increase by about and order them via smart speakers. mobile and internet services. But the Zealand lift their travel bans. Macau, 5% in 2021. Protectionism is a menace Retailers have a chance to cut the cost pandemic’s economic fallout will stop where tourism brought in more than to other industrial metals, too. Take of running physical stores: many will the number of mobile and broadband half of pre-pandemic GDP, will wel- aluminium: America’s import tariffs will invest in improving their own web- subscribers rising by more than about come back non-Chinese visitors. But divert supplies away from its shores; sites or listing on online marketplaces 3% from pre-covid levels. American travellers from China (the world’s top crimped output will keep prices high such as Amazon or Facebook Shops. and Chinese operators will focus tourism spender) will tread cautiously, there. Aluminium prices, bashed out of Struggling stores will morph into ware- on expanding and monetising their while America (the biggest earner) will shape in 2019-20, will climb by more houses, losing out to big-box retailers fledgling 5G coverage. Europe will stay selective about visitors. In Europe, than 4% in 2021. that collect lots of brands beneath one play catch-up, rushing to launch 5G Britain will face new checks once the Among precious metals, gold, per- roof. Prepare for more bankruptcies. services after dragging its feet in 2020 Brexit transition deal expires, and haps unsurprisingly, has shone brightly over whether to use Huawei’s technol- Venice will levy a tourist tax to limit in these uncertain times: average ogy. Meanwhile, Latin America, Africa visitor numbers. Public events such as prices were 27% higher in 2020. But Sport and South Asia will be busy upgrading the delayed Tokyo Olympics and Dubai as economies recover, consumption from 2G and 3G to high-speed 4G LTE. Expo will be socially distanced. will fall by 7% and prices will be flat Mobile revenues will rise more quickly Domestic travel, already 75% of in 2021. in developing countries than devel- tourism revenue in rich countries, oped ones, climbing by 2%, according will fill some gaps. Even so, spending to GSMA, an industry body. at hotels and restaurants, though up Retail RAIN FAIR SUNNY The handset market will frag- on 2020, will be 9% down on 2019 ment further. Huawei will be hurt by in dollar terms. Government fund- The sports industry aspires to make America’s ban on using its technology. ing will keep many travel companies a spectacular comeback in 2021 but The Chinese company’s loss will not going. Yet airlines, despite receiving will fail to generate the $580bn in necessarily be Apple’s gain. South $123bn in aid, will make a loss of revenues predicted pre-pandemic. Korea’s titan, Samsung, is well placed $15bn in 2021. Cargo demand will RAIN FAIR SUNNY Postponed events will fill schedules. to thrive if it can win over new users outpace passenger numbers, but that In Tokyo, the Summer Olympics and with affordable 5G phones. Other will not prevent some airlines from Having declined by nearly 5% in 2020, Paralympics will stick proudly to their Chinese players (Xiaomi, Oppo and vanishing. It will not be plain sailing global retail sales will expand by 3% name (“Tokyo 2020”) as they welcome Vivo) should make strides and low- for cruise lines either, as cancella- in 2021. Asia will lead the charge, with more than 11,000 athletes and admit cost makers such as Transsion (China, tions accumulate.