THE WORLD IN 2021 The world in numbers Countries europe 36 Ireland 37 Sweden 38 Japan north america 41 Paraguay 42 Iraq 35 Austria 36 Italy 37 Switzerland 38 Kazakhstan 40 Canada 41 Peru 42 Israel 35 Belgium 36 Latvia 37 Turkey 39 Malaysia 40 Mexico 41 Uruguay 42 Jordan 35 Bulgaria 36 Lithuania 37 Ukraine 39 New Zealand 26 United States 41 Venezuela 42 Kenya 35 Croatia 36 Netherlands 37 United Kingdom 39 Pakistan 42 Lebanon 35 Czech Republic 36 Norway 39 Philippines latin america middle east & 42 Libya 35 Denmark 36 Poland asia 39 Singapore 40 Argentina africa 42 Morocco 35 Estonia 36 Portugal 38 Australia 39 South Korea 40 Bolivia 41 Algeria 42 Nigeria 35 Finland 37 Romania 38 Bangladesh 39 Sri Lanka 40 Brazil 41 Angola 42 Saudi Arabia 35 France 37 Russia 38 China 39 Taiwan 40 Chile 41 Cameroon 42 South Africa 35 Germany 37 Slovakia 38 Hong Kong 39 Thailand 40 Colombia 41 Egypt 42 Syria 36 Greece 37 Slovenia 38 India 39 Uzbekistan 41 Cuba 41 Ethiopia 42 Zimbabwe 36 Hungary 37 Spain 38 Indonesia 39 Vietnam 41 Ecuador 41 Iran GDP Top ten fastest-growing countries % change on a year earlier British Antigua & Macau Guyana Libya Virgin Is Sint Maarten Peru Albania Barbuda Maldives St Lucia -5 0510 15 20 . Post-pandemic rebounds will pro- North America Western Europe Eastern Europe duce a sharp rise in global and some regional growth rates, but none of . the larger countries will expand by enough to enter the top ten. Instead, the list is dominated by small states, Britain half of them island economies that Russia Canada are counting on the return of holi- France daymakers. Syria United States Middle East & Macau’s chart-topping growth rate north Africa China S Korea Japan (35%) will bring only some relief from Libya Mexico Egypt the catastrophic collapse in tourism . India . and gambling that lopped two-thirds Venezuela Vietnam off the territory’s economy as covid- 19 struck. Lockdowns devastated Asia Indonesia tourism in the British Virgin Islands, Latin Angola Sint Maarten, Antigua & Barbuda, America Peru Brazil . St Lucia and the Maldives, too, from Sub-Saharan excluding Japan, Australia which 2021’s striking growth rates . Africa Australia and New Zealand will represent only a partial rebound. S Africa . The others in the top ten have their Australasia own stories. Libya’s high growth rate reflects a modest recovery . from catastrophe, in this case civil war, which will include a significant increase in oil output. Albania’s Climbing back Food for thought economy suffered its own covid-19 GDP per person, $ at purchasing-power parity Commodity prices, % change on a year earlier, blow as well as contagion from the = annual average deep recession in Italy, a vital trade China 200 40 partner, but will regain all the ground lost in 2020. Guyana stands alone on Crude oil this list as a country barely affected 175 by the virus and is instead riding a 20 wave of offshore oil development. India Food, feedstus and beverages The largest country in the top ten, 150 Peru, will benefit from rising copper Germany 0 output and higher prices. US Britain 125 Industrial Canada raw materials -20 2021 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. Inflation: year-on-year annual average. S Africa 100 Dollar GDPs calculated using 2021 forecasts Brazil for dollar exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or -40 © The World In 2021, The Economist Newspaper London Limited, Economist In 2021, The World © The purchasing-power parity, shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding. 2010 12 14 16 18 20 21 2016 17 18 19 20 21 Czech Republic resurface as the health crisis sub- Europe sides. Infections have been relatively GDP growth 4.4% few, but the economy is reeling from GDP per head $24,800 (PPP: $42,830) a recession in key export markets. Winners and losers from the pandemic rescue Inflation 1.9% Persistent unemployment and falling Biggest net contributors and beneficiaries from the EU funding package Budget balance (% GDP) -3.9 wages will hurt growth. % of GDP -5 0510 15 20 25 €bn Contributions Receipts Population 10.7m Croatia . Bulgaria . The prime minister, Andrej Babis, leads Finland Greece . an uneasy coalition of the centrist GDP growth 2.4% Latvia . ANO movement and the centre-left GDP per head $50,780 (PPP: $51,330) Slovakia . Czech Social Democratic Party, reliant Inflation 1.2% Austria . Sweden . on a pact with the far-left Communist Budget balance (% GDP) -4.3 Netherlands . Party of Bohemia and Moravia, but will Population 5.5m Germany . approach elections in October hope- Ireland . ful of a second term. He will focus on Sanna Marin, who became the Source: European Commission post-pandemic recovery at home and world’s youngest prime minister pursue a pro-EU foreign policy, while when her predecessor was forced pressing Brussels for more funding. out by labour strikes, has benefited Austria Bulgaria Manufacturing and consumer demand from the suspension of political will rally, edging back to 2019 levels. hostilities during the covid-19 GDP growth 4.7% GDP growth 3.7% emergency. But feuding within the GDP per head $53,123 (PPP: $60,280) GDP per head $10,840 (PPP: $25,230) governing coalition in areas such as Czechs keep spending Inflation 1.7% Inflation 2.5% climate policy will re-emerge. The Czech Republic, private consumption Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 per person, $’000 Finns, a far-right opposition party, Population 8.7m Population 6.9m 12 will make hay as unhappiness over immigration and austerity rises. The government entered the covid- Parliamentary elections are planned 9 19 crisis with ample fiscal ammuni- for spring 2021, but volatile politics tion and will spread largesse far and could produce an earlier contest. 6 France wide to mitigate the impact of the In late 2020 the ruling centre-right GDP growth 7.1% 3 virus. The government, a coalition Citizens for European Development GDP per head $43,000 (PPP: $49,670) of the centre-right Austrian People’s of Bulgaria party gave in to mass 0 Inflation 1.5% Party and the Greens, is Europe’s anti-corruption protests and Budget balance (% GDP) -7.4 2013 15 17 19 21 first to unite a centre-right party called for a new constitution, to be Population 65.4m and an environmentalist party. With approved by an assembly chosen in a only an 11-seat majority, it will be snap election. If the proposal fails to Emmanuel Macron, the president, forced to seek support from others, win parliamentary approval, a regular Denmark will revamp his wide-ranging policy including from the far-right Freedom general election will be held in March GDP growth 4.1% platform to focus on recovery from Party, to retain power. The economy or April, in which the ruling party GDP per head $61,280 (PPP: $60,780 the economic slump brought on by will rally, but not by enough to hopes to come out on top. Inflation 0.5% covid-19. France’s stimulus plan is offset the contraction of 2020, with TO WATCH: Eyes open. Bulgaria was Budget balance (% GDP) -2.7 unusual in relying on supply-side weak tourism and cautious consum- subjected to post-accession monitor- Population 5.8m reforms, including tax cuts, rather ers holding it back. ing after it joined the EU in 2007. The than demand-boosting measures. reviews had been expected to end, An early and strict lockdown, coupled Mr Macron is betting these will be but weak progress on corruption and with generous fiscal intervention, limited enough to restore his public image Belgium legal reforms will keep the scrutiny the impact of covid-19 on health and ahead of elections in April 2022. GDP growth 5.4% in place. the economy, and a rebound in 2021 will Social unrest will return as unem- GDP per head $46,150 (PPP: $53,220) restore the economy to its 2019 position. ployment rises. The economy won’t Inflation 1.0% The prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, will regain all of its lost ground. Croatia Budget balance (% GDP) -5.1 benefit from an atmosphere of national Population 11.6m GDP growth 4.7% unity spurred by the crisis, and divisions Germany GDP per head $14,950 (PPP: $28,210) between her Social Democrat-led minority The parties making up the minority Inflation 1.1% government and its “Red Bloc” centre-left GDP growth 4.6% caretaker government, the centre- Budget balance (% GDP) -4.7 allies will be buried for now. GDP per head $48,160 (PPP: $56,870) right New Flemish Alliance and the Population 4.1m TO WATCH: Pillow talks. The European Inflation 1.0% Socialist Party, should overcome Federation of Sexology will hold its Budget balance (% GDP) -3.6 deep antipathy and assemble a per- Andrej Plenkovic stayed on as prime 15th biennial congress in the city of Population 82.9m manent coalition, if only to keep the minister after elections in July 2020, Aalborg in June. rising far-right Vlaams Belang out leading a coalition headed by his cen- The Christian Democratic Union of power. If they are unable to reach tre-right Croatian Democratic Union. (CDU) of the fourth-term chancellor, agreement, fresh elections are a In his second term, Mr Plenkovic Estonia Angela Merkel, will start 2021 under distinct possibility. Any coalition will will rein in his party’s right wing and GDP growth 4.3% a new party leader; Armin Laschet, a be wobbly and, once the covid-19 pursue closer ties within the EU, GDP per head $24,590 (PPP: $39,130) centrist state premier, is the leading emergency subsides, will struggle to including Schengen membership and Inflation 2.7% contender.