BRIDGWATER TRANSPORT OPTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE OPTIONS TECHNICAL REPORT
October 2016 BRIDGWATER TRANSPORT OPTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE OPTIONS TECHNICAL REPORT Somerset County Council
Project no: 62102386
Date: October 2016
WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Riverside Chambers Castle Street Taunton TA1 4AP www.wsp-pb.co.uk iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1
1 PROJECT BACKGROUND ...... 1 1.1 Introduction ...... 1 1.2 Model History ...... 1 1.3 COntext ...... 1 1.4 STUDY OBJECTIVES ...... 2
2 FORECAST DEMAND ...... 3 2.1 Model overview...... 3 2.2 Demand Forecast Methodology ...... 3 2.3 Trip Generation...... 4 2.4 Background Growth ...... 7 2.5 HGV Growth ...... 7 2.6 Distribution ...... 7 2.7 Highway Assignment ...... 8
3 INFRASTRUCTURE SCENARIOS ...... 9 3.1 Do Minimum infrastructure ...... 9 3.2 Do something infrastructure ...... 9
4 ASSIGNMENT RESULTS ...... 11 4.1 Forecast Scenarios ...... 11 4.2 ASSIGNMENT Convergence ...... 11 4.3 Network Wide Statistics ...... 12 4.4 Journey time analysis ...... 14 4.5 DO Minimum Scenario - Traffic Impacts ...... 15 4.6 Do Something Northern Bypass – Traffic Impacts ...... 18 4.7 Do Something Eastern distributor road – Traffic Impacts ...... 22 4.8 Do Something Southern bypass – Traffic Impacts ...... 28 4.9 DO SOMETHING All Options combined – Traffic Impacts ...... 33
5 CONCLUSION ...... 41 5.1 Summary of process ...... 41 5.2 Summary of Findings ...... 41 5.3 Limitations ...... 42 5.4 Further work ...... 43
Bridgwater Transport Options - Infrastructure Options Technical Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Somerset County Council Project No 62102386 v
TABLES
TABLE 2-1: PROPOSED DEVELOPMENTS – TRIP GENERATION (PCU) ...... 6 TABLE 2-2: MOTORWAY SERVICES AREA TRIPS ...... 6 TABLE 4-1: WEBTAG CONVERGENCE CRITERIA ...... 11 TABLE 4-2: JOURNEY ROUTES START AND END POINTS ...... 15 TABLE 4-3: JUNCTIONS WHICH ARE OVERCAPACITY IN THE DO MINIMUM SCENARIO ...... 16 TABLE 4-4: OVERCAPACITY JUNCTIONS IN THE DO SOMETHING NORTHERN BYPASS OPTION ...... 20 TABLE 4-5: JOURNEY TIME RESULTS FOR NORTHERN BYPASS DO SOMETHING SCENARIO AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE ...... 22 TABLE 4-6: OVERCAPACITY JUNCTIONS IN THE DO SOMETHING EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD OPTION SCENARIO ...... 25 TABLE 4-7: JOURNEY TIME RESULTS FOR EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD SCENARIO AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE 1 ...... 27 TABLE 4-8: JOURNEY TIME RESULTS FOR EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD SCENARIO AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE 2 ...... 28 TABLE 4-9: OVERCAPACITY JUNCTIONS IN THE DO SOMETHING SOUTHERN BYPASS OPTION SCENARIO ...... 31 TABLE 4-10: JOURNEY TIME RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN BYPASSS SCENARIO AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE ...... 32 TABLE 4-11: OVERCAPACITY JUNCTIONS IN THE DO SOMETHING ALL INFRASTRUCTURE OPTION COMBINED SCENARIO...... 35 TABLE 4-12: NORTHERN BYPASS AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE JOURNEY TIME RESULTS ...... 37 TABLE 4-13: EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD AND FIRST ALTERNATIVE ROUTE JOURNEY TIME RESULTS...... 38 TABLE 4-14: EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD AND SECOND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE JOURNEY TIME RESULTS...... 39 TABLE 4-15: SOUTHERN BYPASS AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTE JOURNEY TIME RESULTS ...... 40 TABLE 5-1: MAIN INFRASTRUCTURE RESULTS - INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT...... 42
FIGURES
FIGURE 2-1: PROCESS TO CREATE DEMAND MATRICES ...... 4 FIGURE 2-2: DEVELOPMENT SITE LOCATIONS USED IN INFRASTRUCTURE TESTING ...... 5 FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF PROPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE ...... 10 FIGURE 4-1: TOTAL TRAVEL TIME (PCU HR)...... 12 FIGURE 4-2: AVERAGE SPEED (KPH) ...... 13 FIGURE 4-3: AVERAGE SPEED IN BRIDGWATER (KPH) ...... 14
Bridgwater Transport Options - Infrastructure Options Technical Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Somerset County Council Project No 62102386 vi
FIGURE 4-4: JOURNEY ROUTES ...... 15 FIGURE 4-5: JUNCTIONS TO BE OVERCAPACITY IN THE DO MINIMUM SCENARIO.. 17 FIGURE 4-6: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - NORTHERN BYPASS OPTION AND DM - AM ...... 18 FIGURE 4-7: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - NORTHERN BYPASS OPTION AND DM - PM ...... 19 FIGURE 4-8: LOCATION PLAN FOR NORTHERN BYPASS OPTION ...... 21 FIGURE 4-9: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD OPTION AND DM - AM...... 24 FIGURE 4-10: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD OPTION AND DM - PM...... 24 FIGURE 4-11: LOCATION PLAN FOR EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD OPTION ...... 26 FIGURE 4-12: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - SOUTHERN BYPASS OPTION AND DM - AM ...... 29 FIGURE 4-13: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - SOUTHERN BYPASS OPTION AND DM - PM ...... 30 FIGURE 4-14: LOCATION PLAN FOR SOUTHERN BYPASS OPTION...... 31 FIGURE 4-15: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - ALL INFRASTRUCTURE OPTION AND DM - AM ...... 33 FIGURE 4-16: ACTUAL FLOW DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DS - ALL INFRASTRUCTURE OPTION AND DM - PM ...... 34 FIGURE 4-17: LOCATION PLAN FOR ALL INFRASTRUCTURE OPTION ...... 36
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A CONVERGENCE RESULTS APPENDIX B DO SOMETHING SCENARIO - NORTHERN BYPASS OPTION SELECT LINK ANALYSIS APPENDIX C DO SOMETHING SCENARIO - EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR ROAD OPTION SELECT LINK ANALYSIS APPENDIX D DO SOMETHING SCENARIO – SOUTHERN BYPASS OPTION SELECT LINK ANALYSIS APPENDIX E DO SOMETHING SCENARIO – ALL INFRASTRUCTURE OPTION SELECT LINK ANALYSIS
Bridgwater Transport Options - Infrastructure Options Technical Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Somerset County Council Project No 62102386 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Based on a single demand scenario (based on potential Local Plan allocations) this study identifies the potential traffic benefit of constructing additional infrastructure around Bridgwater. Four potential infrastructure scenarios have been considered: a Northern Bypass; an Eastern Distributor Road; a Southern Distributor Road only; and implementation of all three infrastructure options.
As would be expected, the implementation of all three infrastructure options in combination provided the greatest improvement to traffic by all measures considered within this report.
Of the individual scenarios, the Northern Bypass and the Southern Bypass scenarios have very similar network wide improvements compared to the Do Minimum scenario. However the Southern Bypass scenario generally benefits local traffic whilst the Northern Bypass and Eastern Distributor Road scenarios mainly benefit longer distance through traffic.
The Eastern Distributor Road scenario has the least traffic benefit when assessed against all measures considered in this report, with the exception of the demand attracted to it.
This was a high level assessment, making broad assumptions in relation to the nature of the developments and access arrangements. It does not replace the requirement for a detailed and robust Transport Assessment supporting any future planning applications, and nor does it guarantee that any proposals would be acceptable to the Highway Authority. It is important to emphasise that this assessment focuses only on traffic impact and that a full appraisal would cover environmental and social impacts.
Bridgwater Transport Options - Infrastructure Options Technical Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Somerset County Council Project No 62102386 1
1 PROJECT BACKGROUND 1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff has been commissioned by Somerset County Council (SCC) to undertake traffic modelling in relation to the formulation and assessment of Transport Options for Bridgwater on behalf of Sedgemoor District Council (SDC). The outcome of this study will ultimately be used as part of the evidence base for the upcoming Local Plan (Core Strategy Review) to be developed by SDC.
1.1.2 This report outlines the finding of the bypass option testing, undertaken using the adapted TSTM3 SATURN Traffic Model. The process of creating these adapted forecast models was described in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016.
1.2 MODEL HISTORY
1.2.1 Forecasts of traffic demand have been prepared in accordance with the Department for Transport’s WebTAG guidance. Due to the nature of the existing traffic model, it does not meet all WebTAG criteria. However, the model is considered appropriate for this high level strategy work.
1.2.2 The original Taunton Strategic Traffic Model (TSTM1) was built in 2001 and has since been updated and revalidated, most recently to a 2010 base year (TSTM3). An extended version of the model was developed in 2012 in order to test the impact of the Huntspill Energy Park development (HEP). This expanded version, which maintains the 2010 base year, is the one which has been used for the current work.
1.2.3 The 2010 TSTM3 covered the towns of Bridgwater, Taunton and Wellington, including the M5 between Junctions 23 and 26. The expanded 2012 version of the model that was developed to test HEP also includes network further to the north and east, as far as Junction 22.
1.2.4 Primary routes and important minor roads are included and fully simulated within the fully modelled area. Peripheral parts of the network are coded as a ‘buffer network’.
1.3 CONTEXT
1.3.1 The ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’ described the potential impact to Bridgwater’s traffic network, highlighting key junctions affected by the core scenario developments as well as five proposed development sites. Proposed growth in Bridgwater is expected to impact junctions on all key routes through the town centre, particularly along:
· A38 Bristol Road · A39 Quantock Road · Homberg Way / Western Way.
1.3.2 Following on from the first report, current work seeks to identify suitable large scale infrastructure to support the development sites.
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1.4 STUDY OBJECTIVES
1.4.1 The objective of this study is to identify the effectiveness of four proposed infrastructure options in accommodating increased travel demand as a result of the proposed Local Plan allocations. The four infrastructure options are described in Chapter 3: Infrastructure Scenarios.
1.4.2 All infrastructure scenarios will be based upon a single demand scenario as described in Chapter 2: Forecast Demand.
1.4.3 This technical report outlines the detailed demand, infrastructure and methodology assumptions used in undertaking this transport based analysis. It also demonstrates the benefit of each of the four scenarios in comparison to a Do Minimum scenario with no infrastructure improvements.
1.4.4 It is noted that this document is intended to be a technical report. A non-technical summary report will be produced on completion of this project.
1.4.5 The remainder of this report is set out as follows:
à Chapter 2: Forecast Demand – outlines the process which has been adopted to create the forecast demand and specifies the assumptions made at each stage à Chapter 3: Infrastructure Scenarios – describes the infrastructure options which have been considered in this study à Chapter 4: Assignment Results – describes the future year conditions in terms of predicted traffic flows and delay for links and junctions for each scenario à Chapter 5: Conclusion – summarises the key findings
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2 FORECAST DEMAND 2.1 MODEL OVERVIEW
2.1.1 The base model was created to represent a typical weekday during term time in 2010 and consists of an AM peak (08:00 to 09:00) and PM peak (17:00 to 18:00).
2.1.2 Demand in the model is split into two user classes which represent ‘light’ and ‘heavy’ vehicles. In addition, buses are represented as fixed flows on timetabled routes. The existing user classes have been taken forward to model forecasting, with bus routes assumed to remain unchanged.
2.1.3 Unless otherwise stated, all assumptions are as set out in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016.
2.2 DEMAND FORECAST METHODOLOGY
2.2.1 The existing Sedgemoor District Council Core Strategy ‘Shaping the Future of Sedgemoor 2006-27’ runs to 2027. The revised Local Plan will cover the period up to 2032. The modelled forecast year has been assumed as 2032 to include agreed developments from both documents. All forecasting years were previously tested in 'Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’.
2.2.2 One demand scenario has been produced for each time period (AM and PM). This demand scenario is identical for the Do Minimum scenario and each Do Something scenario.
2.2.3 The flow chart in Figure 2-1 below summarises the steps involved in the preparation of the forecast year demand matrices. Each step is described in more detail throughout this chapter.
Bridgwater Transport Options - Infrastructure Options Technical Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Somerset County Council Project No 62102386 4
Figure 2-1: Process to create demand matrices
1 - Trip • To determine the total traffic flow to/from Generation each explicitly modelled development site.
2 - Background • To determine growth factors to be applied to Growth trips associated with non-development zones.
3 - HGV • To determine the growth factors to be applied to HGV trips associated with non-development Growth zones.
• To determine the distribution of traffic to, 4 - Distribution from and between explicitly modelled development sites.
5 - Highway • To assign the forecast demand matrices onto the forecast network using the highway Assignment assignment software SATURN.
2.3 TRIP GENERATION
2.3.1 Nine potential demand scenarios were tested and discussed in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016. This included five development sites and a further four combinations of at least two sites. As a result of this analysis, a single demand scenario was agreed for testing within this study.
2.3.2 The demand scenario taken forward includes all committed and proposed development within Sedgemoor up to the end of the Core Strategy Period, and is based on an Uncertainty Log (provided in Appendix B of the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016). Additionally, the proposed sites 1, 2, 4, and 5 are included as illustrated in Figure 2-2.
2.3.3 In the previous report, our work included site 3; it has been excluded from this report as SDC now consider it to be unrealistic to promote this site at this time.
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Figure 2-2: Development Site Locations Used In Infrastructure Testing
2.3.4 The make-up of each development site is based upon the assumptions discussed in Section 1.2 of the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’. These have however been updated for this assessment based upon discussion with SDC as follows.
à Site 1 - Land to the west of Bridgwater – 1,200 dwellings, primary school and the relocation of Haygrove School with two accesses; à Site 2 - Land at East Bridgwater – 1,200 dwellings and a primary school; à Site 4 - Land at South Bridgwater – 30,000m2 B1 development; à Site 5 - Land at Huntworth – 5,338m2 B1 development and 22,257m2 B8 development. Additionally, this site includes a proposed updated motorway services area (MSA).
2.3.5 The resultant total trip generation is shown in Table 2-1. Note that there are assumed to be no trips to or from the relocated Haygrove School during the PM peak.
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Table 2-1: Proposed developments – trip generation (pcu)
PROPOSED AM AM PM PM DEVELOPMENT ARRIVALS DEPARTURES ARRIVALS DEPARTURES Site 1 – Land to the West of Bridgwater 414 657 468 271
Site 2 – Land to the East of Bridgwater 195 512 468 271
Site 4 – Land at South Bridgwater 434 49 52 337
Site 5 – Land at Huntworth 728 626 618 714
2.3.6 The improved Motorway Service Area trips, as part of site 5, have been estimated using Highways England’s TRADS database. Similar MSA sites have been identified (such as Stafford MSA) to inform expected demand for site 5. It has been assumed that the origin and destination trips are equal, as MSA trips are generally short stay. The resultant demand is presented in Table 2-2.
Table 2-2: Motorway Services Area trips VEHICLE TYPE AM AM PM PM (VEHICLES) (PCU) (VEHICLES) (PCU) HGVs 113 226 118 236 Light Vehicles 353 353 345 345 Total Vehicles 466 579 463 581 HGV % 24% - 25% -
2.3.7 It has been assumed that trips to and from the MSA are diverted from existing trips on the M5. These trips were merely rerouted to use the roundabout at M5 J24 to visit the services, and then leave to continue their journey soon after.
2.3.8 The Impact of promoting sustainable travel was not accounted for in this assessment. As such, mode choice is considered to be consistent with the base modelling. Some of the impacts described in this report could be partially mitigated through the implementation of the emerging Local Plan.
HGV TRIPS
2.3.9 For most development it has been assumed that all explicitly modelled trips will be ‘light’ vehicles with HGV trips accounted for as part of background growth. The exception is for larger development sites and the MSA, where trip generation for HGVs has been taken from the relevant TA or detailed analysis.
2.3.10 More details about the Uncertainty Log, trip rates and the source used to establish the trip generation for each site is provided in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016.
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2.4 BACKGROUND GROWTH
2.4.1 Background traffic growth has been applied to traffic associated with non- development zones by obtaining growth factors from TEMPRO (dataset 6.2)1. Background traffic growth was not applied to new development zones which contained point-loaded trips. More details about this is provided in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016.
2.5 HGV GROWTH
2.5.1 Growth factors for HGV vehicles were determined using the Department for Transport’s Road Traffic Forecasts 2015 (RTF)2. More details about this are provided in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016.
2.6 DISTRIBUTION
2.6.1 A gravity model was developed to derive a trip distribution for all development sites. In general a similar methodology has been used to that described in the ‘Bridgwater Transport Options – Forecast Report’, dated March 2016. However, Box- Cox deterrence function rather than the Logit-Kirchhoff deterrence function used in the previous modelling.
2.6.2 The Box-Cox deterrence function is defined as follows:
C 1 f C = exp − Where:
α and β are parameters which were calibrated; and C represents the generalised cost between zones i and j.