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Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.N)2 16 June 2017

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Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.N)2 16 June 2017 16 June 2017 Americas/Canada Equity Research Infrastructure Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.N) Rating (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM Price (14-Jun-17, US$) 39.43 UPGRADE RATING Target price (US$) (from 40.00) 44.00 52-week price range (US$) 40.91 - 27.91 Market cap (US$ m) 9,606.72 A Tactical Trade; Upgrade to Outperform on Target price is for 12 months. Index Inclusion Potential and Organic Re-Rate Research Analysts Andrew M. Kuske ■ A Timing Trade: We upgrade Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, LP (BIP) to 416 352 4561 [email protected] Outperform from the previous Neutral and increase our target price to US$44 Paul Tan from the prior US$40 in light of some tactical issues. In addition, we believe a 416 352 4593 solid fundamental organic growth story is underappreciated which is poised [email protected] to deliver value. Simply, the near-term issues revolve around two factors: (a) potential index inclusion; and, (b) NTS economics. We do not believe the full extent of these issues is appreciated by the market (albeit index potential may be creeping in). Longer-term, we continue to believe the fundamental organic growth story is not appreciated versus BIP's historical M&A bias. ■ Index inclusion: With the S&P/TSX undergoing a consultation process for selected index criteria, the potential inclusion of BIP in the Composite is likely to have a meaningful impact on unit demand around the Q3 index revision. At that time, BIP would look to join the other Brookfield siblings (namely Brookfield Renewable and Brookfield Properties) in the Composite as a top 40 float weighted name which creates a tactical trade. ■ Investment Thesis: We continue to believe BIP's organic asset base growth underpins an attractive network story. That visibility should be regarded as a positive and enabling a significant high-grading of M&A opportunities. ■ Valuation: Based on a number of model revisions (NTS timing and returns) and valuation changes, our target price increased to US$44 from the prior US$40. Using 2018 forecasts, that target is obtained, in part, with a NAV approach and an implied 4.45% distribution yield (165bps spread on an assumed 2.8% US 10-year bond yield). We upgrade BIP to Outperform from the prior Neutral rating. We adjusted our estimates. Risks to our target and rating include: regulatory processes; structural issues; currency movements; and, operational issues. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics 4 5 Year 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 1.12 1.67 2.57 2.60 4 0 Prev. EPS (US$) - 1.94 2.14 2.15 3 5 P/E (x) 35.1 23.6 15.4 15.2 3 0 P/E rel. (%) 173.9 129.1 94.0 102.3 2 5 Revenue (US$ m) 2,115.0 3,313.5 3,808.1 4,015.3 Ju l- 1 6 O ct - 1 6 Jan - 1 7 A p r - 1 7 EBITDA (US$ m) 886.0 1,672.5 2,014.4 2,090.2 OCFPS (US$) 2.17 3.36 4.15 4.20 BIP.N S& P 5 0 0 IN D EX P/OCF (x) 15.4 11.7 9.5 9.4 On 14-Jun-2017 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2437.92 EV/EBITDA (current) 19.6 10.4 8.6 8.3 Daily Jun14, 2016 - Jun14, 2017, 06/14/16 = Net debt (US$ m) 7,540 9,134 9,143 9,093 US$29.233347950000002 ROIC (%) 2.48 5.75 7.36 7.65 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of shares (m) 243.64 IC (current, US$ m) 17,184.00 2016A 0.17 0.39 0.16 0.40 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) 17.6 EV/IC (x) 1.0 2017E -0.03 0.53 0.59 0.58 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 9,120.9 Dividend (current, US$) 1.74 2018E 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) 92.9 Dividend yield (%) - Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 16 June 2017 Our upgrade to Outperform is largely tactical, but also has several longer-term factors. The report is divided into three parts: Upgrade to Outperform ■ Near-Term Performance Potential; ■ The Controversies; and, ■ Valuation. Each of these areas is addressed in detail below. Near-term Performance potential Our upgrade of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners to Outperform from the previous Neutral is based largely on a few near-term tactical issues. Clearly, there is fundamental re-rating potential on a longer-term basis, but this upgrade is more tactical in nature. These issues are addressed under three headings: ■ Index potential; ■ A Plentiful Pipeline; and, ■ Organic growth re-rating. In order of potential market timing, each of these areas is addressed below. Index potential Ending inconsistent From our standpoint, one of the more perplexing issues associated with BIP has been the index treatment? lack of an index presence – especially versus a couple of the other Brookfield entities. We obviously defer to the expertise of our Index team, but on a very simple basis BIP's index inclusion in the S&P/TSX Composite could result in meaningful incremental demand. Our view is based upon the following: ■ On May 5th, S&P put forth a consultation paper that, in our view, opens the door for the potential BIP inclusion and ending the inconsistent treatment of BIP versus Brookfield Renewable Partners and Brookfield Property Partners; ■ Very simply, S&P measured float turnover for the TSX related indices by considering the total number of shares traded on the Canadian venues divided by the float adjusted shares outstanding; ■ The proposal for comments looks to include the total number of shares traded on the US exchanges in the float turnover calculation for the inclusion criteria for the S&P/TSX Composite which should positively impact BIP; ■ Figure 1 illustrates the annual trading for BIP's units on the NYSE and the TSX from 2008 (the inception of BIP) to now; ■ The chart shows BIP's only listing at inception was the NYSE quite different than the comparative of Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) predecessor entity (Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (BRCun)); ■ BIP eventually added a TSX listing in 2009, but the skew of volume remained very NYSE centric until 2016; and, ■ In our view, that pivot point is rather important because of the previously inconsistent treatment by the index providers and the inclusion argument is further reinforced. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.N)2 16 June 2017 Figure 1: BIP historical trading volume 140,000,000 BIP (NYSE) BIP (TSX) 120,000,000 100,000,000 d e d 80,000,000 a r t Highlighting BIP's 2016 s t volume pivot point i 60,000,000 n U 40,000,000 20,000,000 - 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 D T Y Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service BEP and the predecessor BRCun has long been in the S&P/TSX Composite with a large skew of TSX volumes. We note that BEP's creation resulted in a NYSE listing on June 11, 2013 (note BEP's own data show some NYSE trading prior to that date – albeit minimal). With respect to BPY, we note the two following key pivots: ■ BPY's index inclusion may have been rather similar to that of BIP other than the LP's proposal to acquire Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) on September 30, 2013; ■ Following that announcement, BPY was included in the S&P/TSX Composite after the close of trading on March 27, 2014; and, ■ BPY's purchase of Brookfield Office Properties Inc. was completed on June 9th, 2014 and the volume began to skew to the TSX. Figure 2: BEP historical trading volume Figure 3: BPY historical trading volume 80,000,000 BEP (NYSE) BEP (TSX) 140,000,000 BPY (NYSE) BPY (TSX) 70,000,000 120,000,000 60,000,000 100,000,000 d d e e 50,000,000 d d 80,000,000 a a r r t t 40,000,000 s s t t i i 60,000,000 n n 30,000,000 U U 40,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 - - 7 7 3 4 5 6 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 D D T T Y Y Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service To provide a collective perspective, Figure 4 highlights the percentage of trading on the NYSE and the TSX for BIP, BEP and BPY.
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