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Life Science Journal 2013;10(2) Http Life Science Journal 2013;10(2) http://www.lifesciencesite.com Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation among Smallholder Cocoa Farmers in Osun State, Nigeria Opeyemi Abimbola Longe and Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, + Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. ++Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, Mmabatho 2735 South Africa. [email protected] Abstract: Climate change is among the factors that pose serious threats to sustainable cocoa production in Nigeria. This paper analyzed farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Osun state. A total of 125 cocoa farmers were sampled using multi-stage sampling method. Data were analyzed with Factor Analysis (FA), descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression. The results show that farmers in the oldest age group (≥ 70 years) have the highest average climate change vulnerability index (0.2790) and the youngest group (< 30 years) had the highest average climate change adaptation index (0.8378). Illiterate farmers and those that could not complete primary education had the highest vulnerability index (0.1504) and lowest average adaptation index (- 0.3489). Households with less than 5 members had average vulnerability index of 0.2666 and average adaptation index of -0.3044. Farmers that planted cocoa as primary crop and those whose primary occupation was farming had low average vulnerability indices of -0.0389 and -0.0312, respectively. Cocoa farmers with extension contacts also had lower vulnerability to climate change. The regression results show that households’ dependency ratio significantly increased climate change vulnerability (p<0.05), while access to extension services and television significantly reduced it (p<0.01). Adaptation to climate change significantly reduced (p<0.05) with dependency ratio and sickness of household members. It was concluded that integration of adequate climate change information into the mechanisms of agricultural extension delivery systems will assist in reducing cocoa farmers’ vulnerability to climate change. [Longe O, Oyekale, AS. Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation among Smallholder Cocoa Farmers in Osun State, Nigeria Life Sci J 2013;10(2):757-763] (ISSN:1097-8135). http://www.lifesciencesite.com. 107 Keywords: Climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, indices, Nigeria Introduction cocoa farms, cocoa farmer support services in the The importance of cocoa for foreign form of production education, introduction and exchange generation in Nigerian economy cannot be availability of seedlings of improved cocoa varieties overemphasized. In 1890, the crop was first and farmers’ compliance with chemical usage, cocoa cultivated in the then western region of Nigeria. yields are bound in modestly increase in the nearest Since then, its cultivation has become prominent as a future. major cash crop with the country attaining second Changes in the pattern of rainfall are having highest global production in 1965. Recently, cocoa unfavourable impacts on cocoa production due to production in Nigeria has experienced significant prevalence of pest and diseases and death of cocoa stagnation, and many factors are responsible. trees. In many instances, the beginning of rainy Smallness of farm holdings, inadequate road, season can no longer be accurately predicted. Even depleting farm labour, low capital investment and when it starts on time, there have been cases of unfavourable climatic change are among the notable sudden stoppage of rainfall that have constituted contributory factors (Oyekale, 2012). serious production shocks with obviously adverse Because of its sensitivity to some critical consequences. Also, farmers can no longer fairly weather situations, cocoa production is largely predict accurately when crops will be due for affected by unfavourable climate. Available data planting and what quantity of harvests to expect. have shown that cocoa production in Nigeria was The impact of climate change is more 280,000 metric tonnes in 2009 with a forecast of pathetic for cocoa farmers due to sensitivity of the 300,000 metric tones for 2011/2012 due to expected crop to weather vagaries. Specifically, every stage of favourable climate. Specifically, Nkang et al (2009) cocoa development requires favourable climate for noted that in Cross River state, young school leavers optimum performance. As a matter of fact, too high were encouraged by some corporate organizations to rainfall promotes incidence of black pod disease, take a career in cocoa farming. Gyampoh et al. which normally accounts for the bulk of annual (2008) also submitted that due to rehabilitation of old production losses. It should also be emphasized that http://www.lifesciencesite.com 757 [email protected] Life Science Journal 2013;10(2) http://www.lifesciencesite.com high incidence of black pod disease raises cocoa household assets and consumption. The multi-stage production cost through increased chemical usage random sampling method was used for selecting the and labour cost. Reduction in sunlight hours is also respondents. The first stage involved random inimical to cocoa production because black pod selection of the local government areas (LGAs) disease and other pests are largely promoted under where the data were collected. At the second stage, too high humidity. Some pathogens and pest can as cocoa growing villages within the LGA were well adjust to host resistance through genetic randomly. Within the selected villages, households mutation. This often results in complete resistance to were randomly selected. A total of 125 farmers were chemical control, thereby constituting more havocs to interviewed from Aiyedaade Local Government (43), cocoa pods and trees. Specifically, Davis (2010) Irewole Local Government (31), Isokan Local submitted that drastic reduction in sunlight hours is Government (25) and Atakunmosa West Local able to adversely affect the growth of cocoa trees and Government (26). Table 1 shows the distribution of yields. In addition, effective drying of cocoa beans the villages in the sampled LGAs. It shows that 20.8 becomes very difficult if sunshine hours reduce. This percent of the respondents were from Osu village, ultimately affects the quality of processed cocoa 16.0 percent were from Araromi village, 15.2 percent beans and generated revenues. were from Ayepe village, 12.0 percent from Orile The impact of climate change on cocoa Owu village, 9.6 percent from Odeyinka village, 8.0 agriculture also poses additional social cost because percent from Bembe village, 7.2 percent from cocoa agro-forestry responds adequately to the goals Ayetoro, 6.4 percent from Mokore village, and 4.8 of environmental conservation through reduction in percent from Oja-Oba. soil erosion. The implication is that if coca farmers are unable to grow the crop due to inadequate Table 1: Distribution of respondents in the sampled climate, such environmental conservation matrix villages which has served in protecting many of Nigeria’s Villages Frequency Percentage fragile ecological systems over the past few decades Araromi 20 16.00 will be broken. Cocoa is a very important source of Ayepe 19 15.20 income for many farmers in the cocoa producing Ayetoro 9 7.20 states. The subsector also generates some form of Bembe 10 8.00 employment on-farm and off-farm. This is in addition Mokore 8 6.40 to being an important source of foreign exchange to Odeyinka 12 9.60 the Nigerian government. Precisely, cocoa beans are Oja Oba 6 4.80 exported to developed countries where they are Orile Owu 15 12.0 transformed into products like cocoa butter, cocoa Osu 26 20.8 wine, cocoa powder, among others (Akinwale, 2006). Total 125 100 Devising adequate coping strategies to mitigate the Source: Field Survey 2011 impact of climate change on cocoa production is therefore imperative given its central importance in Analytical Techniques rural economy. Also, understanding the extent of The data collected for this study were farmers’ vulnerability and the adaptation methods analyzed using some descriptive statistical techniques can trigger means of assisting the farmers through such as frequency counts, percentages, mean etc. some marginal reforms. Factor Analysis and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression were also used for data analysis. The Materials and Methods Factor Analysis was used to construct indices of Area of study and sampling procedures climate change vulnerability and adaptation using The study was carried out in Osun State in information that were obtained on those weather the south western part of Nigeria. The state was variables that recently had adverse welfare impacts separated from the old Oyo State on 27th August on the farm households. The questionnaire was 1991. The study made use of data that were obtained designed to retrospectively seek for the impact of from primary source. The source involves the use of extremely high temperature, extremely low structured questionnaire which were administered temperature, too much rainfall, too low rainfall, delay directly to the farmers by trained enumerators. The in rainfall commencement, delay in rainfall stopping questionnaire has four parts, the first dealt with the and stormy rainfall on the households. The choice of socio-economic characteristics of respondents, the composite vulnerability index was inspired by the second part dealt with cocoa farm inputs and outputs, nature of the data since it probed into
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