Friday, December 10, 2010

Part VII

Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 223 Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Subspecies of the ; Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened and Not Warranted Status for Subspecies and Distinct Population Segments of the Bearded Seal; Proposed Rules

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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Federal eRulemaking Portal http:// the finding is to be published promptly www.regulations.gov. in the Federal Register. National Oceanic and Atmospheric • Mail: P.O. Box 21668, Juneau, AK After reviewing the petition, the Administration 99802. literature cited in the petition, and other • Fax: (907) 586–7557. literature and information available in 50 CFR Part 223 • Hand delivery to the Federal our files, we found (73 FR 51615; September 4, 2008) that the petition met [Docket No. 101126590–0589–01] Building: 709 West 9th Street, Room 420A, Juneau, AK. the requirements of the regulations RIN 0648–XZ59 All comments received are a part of under 50 CFR 424.14(b)(2), and we the public record. No comments will be determined that the petition presented Endangered and Threatened Species; posted to http://www.regulations.gov for substantial information indicating that Proposed Threatened Status for public viewing until after the comment the petitioned action may be warranted. Subspecies of the Ringed Seal period has closed. Comments will Accordingly, we proceeded with the AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries generally be posted without change. All status reviews of ringed, bearded, and Service, National Oceanic and Personal Identifying Information (for spotted seals and solicited information Atmospheric Administration, example, name, address, etc.) pertaining to them. Commerce. voluntarily submitted by the commenter On September 8, 2009, the Center for Biological Diversity filed a lawsuit in ACTION: Proposed rule; 12-month may be publicly accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business the U.S. District Court for the District of petition finding; status review; request Columbia alleging that we failed to for comments. Information or otherwise sensitive or protected information. make the requisite 12-month finding on SUMMARY: We, NMFS, have completed a We will accept anonymous comments its petition to list the three seal species. comprehensive status review of the (enter N/A in the required fields, if you Subsequently, the Court entered a ringed seal (Phoca hispida) under the wish to remain anonymous). You may consent decree under which we agreed Endangered Species Act (ESA) and submit attachments to electronic to finalize the status review of the announce a 12-month finding on a comments in Microsoft Word, Excel, ringed seal (and the bearded seal) and petition to list the ringed seal as a WordPerfect, or Adobe PDF file formats submit this 12-month finding to the threatened or endangered species. Based only. Office of the Federal Register by on consideration of information The proposed rule, maps, status December 3, 2010. Our 12-month presented in the status review report, an review report, and other materials petition finding for bearded seals is assessment of the factors in the ESA, relating to this proposal can be found on published as a separate notice and efforts being made to protect the the Alaska Region Web site at: http:// concurrently with this finding. Spotted species, we have determined the Arctic alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/. seals were also addressed in a separate Federal Register notice (75 FR 65239; (Phoca hispida hispida), Okhotsk FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: October 22, 2010; see also, 74 FR 53683, (Phoca hispida ochotensis), Baltic Tamara Olson, NMFS Alaska Region, (Phoca hispida botnica), and Ladoga October 20, 2009). (907) 271–5006; Kaja Brix, NMFS The status review report of the ringed (Phoca hispida ladogensis) subspecies Alaska Region, (907) 586–7235; or Marta seal is a compilation of the best of the ringed seal are likely to become Nammack, Office of Protected scientific and commercial data available endangered throughout all or a Resources, Silver Spring, MD (301) 713– concerning the status of the species, significant portion of their range in the 1401. including the past, present, and future foreseeable future. Accordingly, we SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On March threats to this species. The Biological issue a proposed rule to list these 28, 2008, we initiated status reviews of Review Team (BRT) that prepared this subspecies of the ringed seal as ringed, bearded (Erignathus barbatus), report was composed of eight marine threatened species, and we solicit and spotted seals (Phoca largha) under biologists, a fishery biologist, a comments on this proposed action. At the ESA (73 FR 16617). On May 28, marine chemist, and a climate scientist this time, we do not propose to 2008, we received a petition from the from NMFS’s Alaska and Northeast designate critical habitat for the Arctic Center for Biological Diversity to list Fisheries Science Centers, NOAA’s ringed seal because it is not currently these three species of seals as threatened Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, and determinable. In order to complete the or endangered under the ESA, primarily the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service critical habitat designation process, we due to concerns about threats to their (USFWS). The status review report also solicit information on essential habitat from climate warming and loss underwent independent peer review by physical and biological features of of sea ice. The Petitioner also requested five scientists with expertise in ringed Arctic ringed seal habitat. that critical habitat be designated for seal biology, Arctic sea ice, climate DATES: Comments and information these species concurrent with listing change, and ocean acidification. regarding this proposed rule must be under the ESA. Section 4(b)(3)(B) of the received by close of business on ESA of 1973, as amended (16 U.S.C. ESA Statutory, Regulatory, and Policy February 8, 2011. Requests for public 1531 et seq.), requires that when a Provisions hearings must be made in writing and petition to revise the List of Endangered There are two key tasks associated received by January 24, 2011. and Threatened Wildlife and Plants is with conducting an ESA status review. ADDRESSES: Send comments to Kaja found to present substantial scientific The first is to delineate the taxonomic Brix, Assistant Regional Administrator, and commercial information, we make a group under consideration; and the Protected Resources Division, Alaska finding on whether the petitioned action second is to conduct an extinction risk Region, NMFS, Attn: Ellen Sebastian. is (a) Not warranted, (b) warranted, or assessment to determine whether the You may submit comments, identified (c) warranted but precluded from petitioned species is threatened or by RIN 0648–XZ59, by any one of the immediate proposal by other pending endangered. To be considered for listing following methods: proposals of higher priority. This under the ESA, a group of organisms • Electronic Submissions: Submit all finding is to be made within 1 year of must constitute a ‘‘species,’’ which electronic public comments via the the date the petition was received, and section 3(16) of the ESA defines as ‘‘any

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subspecies of fish or wildlife or plants, scientific and commercial data available regions including the , the Sea and any distinct population segment of for each respective threat. For example, of Okhotsk, and the , ringed any species of vertebrate fish or wildlife because the climate projections in the seals occasionally rest on island shores which interbreeds when mature.’’ The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate or offshore reefs. In lakes Ladoga and term ‘‘distinct population segment’’ Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Saimaa, ringed seals typically rest on (DPS) is not commonly used in Report extend through the end of the rocks and island shores when ice is scientific discourse, so the USFWS and century (and we note the IPCC’s Fifth absent. In all subspecies except the NMFS developed the ‘‘Policy Regarding Assessment Report, due in 2014, will Okhotsk, pups normally are born in the Recognition of Distinct Vertebrate extend even farther into the future), we subnivean lairs (snow caves) on the sea Population Segments Under the used those models to assess impacts ice (Arctic and Baltic ringed seals) or in Endangered Species Act’’ to provide a from climate change through the end of subnivean lairs along shorelines consistent interpretation of this term for the century. We continue to recognize (Saimaa and Ladoga ringed seals) in late the purposes of listing, delisting, and that the farther into the future the winter to early spring. Although use of reclassifying vertebrates under the ESA analysis extends, the greater the subnivean lairs has been reported for (61 FR 4722; February 7, 1996). We inherent uncertainty, and we Okhotsk ringed seals, this subspecies describe and use this policy below to incorporated that limitation into our apparently depends primarily on guide our determination of whether any assessment of the threats and the sheltering in the lee of ice hummocks. population segments of this species species’ response. For other threats, The seasonality of ice cover strongly meet the DPS criteria of the DPS policy. where the best scientific and influences ringed seal movements, The ESA defines the term commercial data does not extend as far foraging, reproductive behavior, and ‘‘endangered species’’ as ‘‘any species into the future, such as for occurrences vulnerability to predation. Born et al. which is in danger of extinction and projections of disease or parasitic (2004) recognized three ‘‘ecological throughout all or a significant portion of outbreaks, we limited our analysis to the seasons’’ as important to ringed seals off its range.’’ The term ‘‘threatened species’’ extent of such data. We believe this northwestern Greenland: The ‘‘open- is defined as ‘‘any species which is approach creates a more robust analysis water season,’’ the ice-covered ‘‘winter,’’ likely to become endangered within the of the best scientific and commercial and ‘‘spring,’’ when the seals breed and foreseeable future throughout all or a data available. after the breeding season haul out on the significant portion of its range.’’ The ice to molt. Tracking seals in Alaska and foreseeability of a species’ future status Species Information the western Canadian Arctic, Kelly et al. is case specific and depends upon both A thorough review of the , (2010b) used different terms to refer to the foreseeability of threats to the life history, and ecology of the ringed these ecological seasons. Kelly et al. species and foreseeability of the species’ seal is presented in the status review (2010b) referred to the open-water response to those threats. When a report (Kelly et al., 2010a; available at period when ringed seals forage most species is exposed to a variety of threats, http://alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/). intensively as the ‘‘foraging period,’’ each threat may be foreseeable in a The ringed seal is the smallest of the early winter through spring when seals different time frame. For example, northern seals, with typical adult body rest primarily in subnivean lairs on the threats stemming from well-established, sizes of 1.5 m in length and 70 kg in ice as the ‘‘subnivean period,’’ and the observed trends in a global physical weight. The average life span of ringed period between abandonment of the process may be foreseeable on a much seals is about 15–28 years. As the lairs and ice break-up as the ‘‘basking longer time horizon than a threat common name of this species suggests, period.’’ stemming from a potential, though its coat is characterized by ring-shaped Open-water (foraging) period: Short unpredictable, episodic process such as markings. Ringed seals are adapted to and long distance movements by ringed an outbreak of disease that may never remaining in heavily ice-covered areas seals have been documented during the have been observed to occur in the throughout the fall, winter, and spring open-water period. Overall, the record species. by using the stout claws on their fore from satellite tracking indicates that In the 2008 status review of the ribbon flippers to maintain breathing holes in ringed seals breeding in shorefast ice seal (Boveng, et al., 2008; see also 73 FR the ice. practice one of two strategies during the 79822, December 30, 2008), NMFS open-water foraging period. Some seals scientists used the same climate Seasonal Distribution, Habitat Use, and forage within 100 km of their shorefast projections used in our risk assessment Movements ice breeding habitat while others make here, but terminated the analysis of Ringed seals are circumpolar and are extensive movements of hundreds or threats to ribbon seals at 2050. One found in all seasonally ice covered seas thousands of kilometers to forage in reason for that approach was the of the Northern Hemisphere as well as highly productive areas and along the difficulty of incorporating the increased in certain freshwater lakes. They range pack ice edge. Movements during the divergence and uncertainty in climate throughout the Arctic Basin and open-water period by ringed seals that scenarios beyond that time. Other southward into adjacent seas, including breed in the pack ice are unknown. reasons included the lack of data for the southern Bering Sea and Tracking and observational records threats other than those related to Newfoundland. Ringed seals are also indicate that adult Arctic ringed seals climate change beyond 2050, and the found in the and Sea of breeding in the shorefast ice show inter- fact that the uncertainty embedded in Japan in the western North Pacific, the annual fidelity to breeding sites. Saimaa the assessment of the ribbon seal’s Baltic Sea in the North Atlantic, and and Ladoga ringed seals show similar response to threats increased as the landlocked populations inhabit lakes site fidelity. High quality, abundant analysis extended farther into the Ladoga and Saimaa east of the Baltic Sea food is important to the annual energy future. (Figure 1). budgets of ringed seals. Fall and early Since that time, NMFS scientists have Throughout most of its range, the winter periods, prior to the occupation revised their analytical approach to the Arctic subspecies does not come ashore of breeding sites, are important in foreseeability of threats and responses to and uses sea ice as a substrate for allowing ringed seals to accumulate those threats, adopting a more threat- resting, pupping, and molting. During enough fat stores to support estrus and specific approach based on the best the ice-free season in more southerly lactation.

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Winter (subnivean period): At freeze- of the annual pelage cycle, they spend in February through March. At birth, up in fall, ringed seals surface to breathe increasing amounts of time in the water. ringed seal pups are approximately 60– in the remaining open water of cracks 65 cm in length and weigh 4.5–5.0 kg Food Habits and leads. As these openings freeze with regional variation. The pups are over, the seals push through the ice to Ringed seals eat a wide variety of prey born with a white natal coat (lanugo) breathe until it is too thick. They then in the marine environment. Most ringed that provides insulation, particularly open breathing holes by abrading the ice seal prey is small, and preferred fishes when dry, until it is shed after 4–6 with the claws on their fore flippers. As tend to be schooling species that form weeks. Pups nurse for as long as 2 the ice thickens, the seals continue to dense aggregations. Ringed seals rarely months in stable shorefast ice and for as maintain the breathing holes by prey upon more than 10–15 species in little as 3–6 weeks in moving ice. Pups scratching at the walls. The breathing any one area, and not more than 2–4 of normally are weaned before break-up of holes can be maintained in ice 2 m or those species are considered important spring ice. At weaning, pups are four greater in thickness but often are prey. Despite regional and seasonal times their birth weights, and they lose concentrated in the thinner ice of variations in the diet of ringed seals, weight for several months after weaning. refrozen cracks. fishes of the cod family tend to As snow accumulates and buries the dominate the diet of ringed seals from Species Delineation breathing hole, the seals breathe through late autumn through early spring in The BRT reviewed the best scientific the snow layer. Ringed seals excavate many areas. Arctic cod (Boreogadus and commercial data available on the lairs in the snow above breathing holes saida) is often reported to be among the ringed seal’s taxonomy and concluded where snow depth is sufficient. These most important prey species, especially that there are five currently recognized subnivean lairs are occupied for resting, during the ice-covered periods of the subspecies of the ringed seal: Arctic pupping, and nursing young in annual year. Other members of the cod family, ringed seal; Baltic ringed seal; Okhotsk shorefast and pack ice. Snow including polar cod ( ringed seal; Ladoga ringed seal; and accumulation on sea ice is typically glacialis), saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis), Saimaa ringed seal (Phoca hispida sufficient for lair formation only where and navaga (Eleginus navaga), are also saimensis). The BRT noted, however, pressure ridges or ice hummocks cause seasonally important to ringed seals in that further investigation would be the snow to form drifts at least 45 cm some areas. Arctic cod is not found in required to discern whether there are deep (at least 50–65 cm for birth lairs). the Sea of Okhotsk, but capelin additional distinct units, especially Such drifts typically occur only where (Mallotus villosus) are abundant in the within the Arctic subspecies, whose average snow depths (on flat ice) are 20– region. Other fishes reported to be genetic structuring has yet to be 30 cm or more. A general lack of such locally important to ringed seals include thoroughly investigated. We agree with ridges or hummocks in lakes Ladoga smelt (Osmerus sp.) and (Clupea the BRT’s conclusions that these five and Saimaa limits suitable snow drifts sp.). Invertebrates appear to become subspecies of the ringed seal qualify as to island shorelines, where most lairs in more important to ringed seals in many ‘‘species’’ under the ESA. Our DPS Lake Ladoga and virtually all lairs in areas during the open-water season, and analysis follows, and the geographic Lake Saimaa are found. are often found to dominate the diets of distributions of the five subspecies are Subnivean lairs provide refuge from young seals. In the brackish water of the shown in Figure 1. air temperatures too low for survival of Baltic Sea, the prey community includes Under our DPS policy (61 FR 4722; ringed seal pups. Lairs also conceal a mixture of marine and freshwater fish February 7, 1996), two elements are ringed seals from predators, an species, as well as invertebrates. In the considered in a decision regarding the advantage especially important to the freshwater environment of Lake Saimaa, potential identification of a DPS: (1) The small pups that start life with minimal several schooling fishes were reported discreteness of the population segment tolerance for immersion in cold water. to be the most important prey species; in relation to the remainder of the When forced to flee into the water to and in Lake Ladoga, a variety of fish species or subspecies to which it avoid predators, the pups that survive species were found in the diet of ringed belongs; and (2) the significance of the depend on the subnivean lairs to seals. population segment to the species or subsequently warm themselves. Ringed subspecies to which it belongs. A seal movements during the subnivean Reproduction population segment of a vertebrate period typically are quite limited, Sexual maturity in ringed seals varies species may be considered discrete if it especially where ice cover is extensive. with population status and can be as satisfies either one of the following Spring (basking period): Numbers of late as 7 years for males and 9 years for conditions: (1) It is markedly separated ringed seals hauled out on the surface females and as early as 3 years for both from other populations of the same of the ice typically begin to increase sexes. Ringed seals breed annually, with taxon as a consequence of physical, during spring as the temperatures warm timing varying regionally. Mating takes physiological, ecological, or behavioral and the snow covering the seals’ lairs place while mature females are still factors. Quantitative measures of genetic melts. Although the snow cover can nursing their pups and is thought to or morphological discontinuity may melt rapidly, the ice remains largely occur under the ice in the vicinity of provide evidence of this separation; or intact and serves as a substrate for the birth lairs. Little is known about the (2) it is delimited by international molting seals that spend many hours breeding system of ringed seals; governmental boundaries within which basking in the sun. Adults generally however, males are often reported to be differences in control of exploitation, molt from mid-May to mid-July, territorial during the breeding season. management of habitat, conservation although there is regional variation. The A single pup is born in a subnivean status, or regulatory mechanisms exist relatively long periods of time that lair on either the shorefast ice or pack that are significant in light of section ringed seals spend out of the water ice. In much of the Arctic, pupping 4(a)(1)(D) of the ESA. during the molt has been ascribed to the occurs in late March through April, but If a population segment is considered need to maintain elevated skin the timing varies with latitude. Pupping to be discrete under one or both of the temperatures. Feeding is reduced and in the Sea of Okhotsk takes place in above conditions, its biological and the seal’s metabolism declines during March and April. In the Baltic Sea, Lake ecological significance to the taxon to the molt. As seals complete this phase Saimaa, and Lake Ladoga, pups are born which it belongs is evaluated in light of

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the ESA’s legislative history indicating introduced population outside its did not find sufficient differences in the that the authority to list DPSs be used historic range, or (4) evidence that the conservation status or management ‘‘sparingly’’ while encouraging the discrete population segment differs within any of the ringed seal subspecies conservation of genetic diversity (see markedly from other populations of the among their respective range countries Senate Report 151, 96th Congress, 1st species in its genetic characteristics. to justify the use of international Session). This consideration may If a population segment is discrete boundaries to satisfy the discreteness include, but is not limited to, the and significant (i.e., it is a DPS) its criterion of our DPS Policy. We following: (1) Persistence of the discrete evaluation for endangered or threatened therefore conclude that there are no status will be based on the ESA’s population segment in an ecological population segments within any of the definitions of those terms and a review setting unusual or unique for the taxon, subspecies that satisfy the discreteness of the factors enumerated in section (2) evidence that loss of the discrete 4(a)(1). criteria of our DPS Policy. Since there population segment would result in a With respect to discreteness criterion are no discrete population segments significant gap in the range of the taxon, 1 above, we concluded that resolution of within any of the subspecies, we cannot (3) evidence that the discrete population ringed seal population segments beyond take the next step of determining segment represents the only surviving the subspecies level is not currently whether any discrete population natural occurrence of a taxon that may possible using the best available segment is significant to the taxon to be more abundant elsewhere as an scientific and commercial data. We also which it belongs.

Abundance and Trends abundance and trends. The remoteness and their broad distribution and and dynamic nature of their sea ice seasonal movements make surveying Several factors make it difficult to habitat, time spent below the surface, ringed seals expensive and logistically accurately assess ringed seals’

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challenging. Additionally, the species’ studies did not account for seals using uncertainty in the hunting dynamics range crosses political boundaries and pack ice habitats which might account and whether the populations were there has been limited international for the difference. A more recent survey historically subject to density cooperation to conduct range-wide in 1995 provided an estimate of dependence. By the 1940s, the surveys. Details of survey methods and approximately 280,000 seals when population had been reduced to 25,000 data are often limited or have not been missed seals were accounted for. seals in large part due to Swedish and published, making it difficult to judge Population assessments of ringed Finnish removal efforts. Ringed seals in the reliability of the reported numbers. seals in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas the Baltic are found in three general Some studies have relied on surveys of have been mostly confined to U.S. and regions, the Bothnian Bay, Gulf of seal holes and then estimated the Canadian waters. Based on the available , and Gulf of Riga plus the number of seals based on various abundance estimates for study areas Estonian west coast. Low numbers of assumptions of the ratio of seals to within this region and extrapolations for ringed seals are also present in the holes. Most surveys are conducted pack ice areas without survey data, a Bothnian Sea and the southwestern during the basking period and the reasonable estimate for the Chukchi and region of Finland. The greatest numbers of seals on ice is multiplied by Beaufort Seas is 1 million seals. concentration of Baltic ringed seals is some factor to estimate population size Estimates derived for all Alaskan found in the Bothnian Bay. or determine a population index. While shorefast ice habitats in both the Ladoga Ringed Seal a few, recent studies have used data Chukchi and Beaufort Seas based on recorders and haul-out models to aerial surveys conducted in the mid The population size of ringed seals in develop correction factors for seals 1980s were 250,000 ringed seals in the Lake Ladoga is currently suggested to submerged and unseen, many studies shorefast ice and 1–1.5 million range between 3,000 and 5,000 seals present only estimates for seals visible including seals in the pack-ice habitat. based on an aerial survey in 2001. This on ice (i.e., ‘‘basking population’’). The The White, Barents, Kara, and East represents a decline from estimates of timing of annual snow and ice melts Siberian Seas encompass at least half of 20,000 and 5,000–10,000 seals reported also varies widely from year to year and, the worldwide distribution of Arctic for the 1930s and the 1960s, unless surveys are conducted to ringed seals. The total population across respectively (Chapskii, 1974). Results coincide with similar ice and weather these seas may be as many as 220,000 from a Russian aerial survey in the conditions, comparisons between years seals based on available survey data, 1970s estimated the population of (even if conducted during the same time primarily from 1975–1993. ringed seals in Lake Ladoga to be 3,500– 4,700 seals. of year) can be erroneous. With these Okhotsk Ringed Seal limitations in mind, the best scientific Saimaa Ringed Seal and commercial data on abundance and Based on aerial surveys, ringed seal trends are summarized below for each of abundance in the Sea of Okhotsk from The current population estimate of the ringed seal subspecies. 1968–1990 was estimated at between ringed seals in Lake Saimaa is less than 676,000 and 855,000 seals. These 300, and the mean population growth Arctic Ringed Seal estimates include a general (not species- rate from 1990–2004 was 1.026. Lake The Arctic ringed seal is the most specific) 30 percent adjustment to Saimaa is a complex body of water, and abundant of the ringed seal subspecies account for seals in the water. the population trends and abundance and has a circumpolar distribution. The Fluctuations in population estimates for Saimaa ringed seals have differed BRT divided the distribution of Arctic since catch limits were initiated in 1968 across the various regions. It has been ringed seals into five regions: Greenland were suspected to be natural (Fedoseev, projected that the population of Saimaa Sea and , , 2000). Based on these surveys, a ringed seals may reach 400 by 2015, but , , and the conservative estimate of the current with the caveat that seals may no longer White, Barents and Kara Seas. These total population of ringed seals in the be present in some regions of the lake. regions were largely chosen to reflect Sea of Okhotsk would be 676,000 seals. Historical abundance of ringed seals in the geographical groupings of published Aerial surveys conducted in the Sea of Lake Saimaa is estimated to have been studies and not to imply any actual Okhotsk from 1968–1969 provided a between 4,000 and 6,000 population structure. These areas also population estimate of 800,000. This approximately 5,000 years ago (Sipila¨ do not represent the full distribution of was the same as the estimate previously and Hyva¨rinen, 1998; Sipila¨, 2006). Arctic ringed seals as estimates are not back-calculated from catch data in 1966 However, using a back-casting process available in some areas (e.g., areas of the when a population decline due to based on reported bounty statistics, the Russian Arctic coast and the Canadian hunting was identified. These population was estimated in 1893 to be Arctic Archipelago). calculations also suggested that ringed between 100 and 1,300 seals. In 1993, The only available comprehensive seal abundance in the Sea of Okhotsk the Saimaa seal was listed as estimate for the and had been in a state of steady decline endangered under the ESA (58 FR Baffin Bay region is 787,000, based on since 1955 when estimates suggested 26920; May 6, 1993) and as depleted surveys conducted in 1979. Consistency the population exceeded 1 million seals. under the U.S. Marine Mammal in harvest records over time lends some Protection Act of 1972, as amended. At Baltic Ringed Seal confidence that the population has not that time, the population was estimated changed significantly. The Baltic ringed seal population was at 160–180 seals (57 FR 60162; The Hudson Bay ringed seal estimated at 10,000 seals based on December 18, 1992). population was estimated at 53,346 comprehensive surveys conducted in based on the mid-point of estimates 1996. Historical estimates of population Summary of Factors Affecting the from aerial surveys conducted in 2007 size for the Baltic ringed seal range from Ringed Seal and 2008. Prior surveys conducted in 50,000 to 450,000 seals in 1900 (Kokko Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA and the western Hudson Bay in the 1970s et al., 1999). These estimates were listing regulations (50 CFR part 424) set produced an estimate of 455,000 seals, derived as back calculations from forth procedures for listing species. We which was much larger than the 218,300 historical bounty records. The large must determine, through the regulatory reported in the 1950s. The earlier range in the estimates reflects process, if a species is endangered or

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threatened because of any one or a resolution of data pertaining to these variability is primarily determined by combination of the following factors: (1) threats is currently limited. radiation and melting processes during The present or threatened destruction, the summer season. In contrast, the Overview of Global Climate Change and modification, or curtailment of its seasonal ice zones are free of sea ice Effects on the Annual Formation of the during summer. The variability in habitat or range; (2) overutilization for Ringed Seal’s Sea Ice Habitat commercial, recreational, scientific, or extent, thickness, and other sea ice educational purposes; (3) disease or Sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere characteristics important to marine predation; (4) inadequacy of existing can be divided into first-year sea ice that is determined primarily by regulatory mechanisms; or (5) other formed in the most recent changes in the number, intensity, and natural or human-made factors affecting autumn-winter period, and multi-year track of winter and spring storms in the its continued existence. These factors sea ice that has survived at least one sub-Arctic. Although there are are discussed below, with each summer melt season. The Arctic Ocean connections between sea ice conditions subspecies of the ringed seal considered is covered by a mix of multi-year sea in the Arctic and the seasonal ice zones, under each factor. The reader is also ice. More southerly regions, such as the the early loss of summer sea ice in the directed to section 4.2 of the status Bering Sea, , Baffin Bay, the Arctic cannot be extrapolated to the review report for a more detailed Baltic Sea, Hudson Bay, and the Sea of seasonal ice zones, which are behaving discussion of the factors affecting the Okhotsk are known as seasonal ice differently than the Arctic. For example, five subspecies of the ringed seal (see zones, where first year sea ice is the Bering Sea has had 4 years of colder ADDRESSES). As discussed above, the renewed every winter. Similarly, than normal winter and spring data on ringed seal abundance and freshwater ice in lakes Ladoga and conditions from 2007 to 2010, with near trends of most populations are Saimaa forms and melts annually. Both record sea ice extents, rivaling the sea unavailable or imprecise, especially in the observed and the projected effects of ice maximum in the mid-1970s, despite the Arctic and Okhotsk subspecies, and a warming global climate are most record retreats in summer. extreme in northern high-latitude there is little basis for quantitatively IPCC Model Projections linking projected environmental regions, in large part due to the conditions or other factors to ringed seal ice-albedo feedback mechanism in The analysis and synthesis of survival or reproduction. Our risk which melting of snow and sea ice information presented by the IPCC in its assessment therefore primarily lowers reflectivity and thereby further Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) increases surface warming by absorption represents the scientific consensus view evaluated important habitat features and of solar radiation. on the causes and future of climate was based upon the best available Sea ice extent at the end of summer change. The IPCC AR4 used a range of scientific and commercial data and the (September) 2007 in the Arctic Ocean future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions expert opinion of the BRT members. was a record low (4.3 million sq km), produced under six ‘‘marker’’ scenarios A. Present or Threatened Destruction, nearly 40 percent below the long-term from the Special Report on Emissions Modification, or Curtailment of the average and 23 percent below the Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000) to project Species’ Habitat or Range previous record set in 2005 (5.6 million plausible outcomes under clearly-stated sq km) (Stroeve et al., 2008). Sea ice assumptions about socio-economic The main concern about the extent in September 2010 was the third factors that will influence the emissions. conservation status of ringed seals stems lowest in the satellite record for the Conditional on each scenario, the best from the likelihood that their sea ice month, behind 2007 and 2008 (second estimate and likely range of emissions habitat has been modified by the lowest). Most of the loss of sea ice was were projected through the end of the warming climate and, more so, that the on the Pacific side of the Arctic. Of even 21st century. It is important to note that scientific consensus projections are for greater long-term significance was the the SRES scenarios do not contain continued and perhaps accelerated loss of over 40 percent of Arctic multi- explicit assumptions about the warming in the foreseeable future. A year sea ice over the last 5 years (Kwok implementation of agreements or second concern, related by the common et al., 2009). While the annual minimum protocols on emission limits beyond driver of carbon dioxide (CO2) of sea ice extent is often taken as an current mitigation policies and related emissions, is the modification of habitat index of the state of Arctic sea ice, the sustainable development practices. by ocean acidification, which may alter recent reductions of the area of multi- Conditions such as surface air prey populations and other important year sea ice and the reduction of sea ice temperature and sea ice area are linked aspects of the marine ecosystem. A thickness is of greater physical in the IPCC climate models to GHG reliable assessment of the future importance. It would take many years to emissions by the physics of radiation conservation status of each of the restore the ice thickness through annual processes. When CO2 is added to the subspecies of the ringed seal therefore growth, and the loss of multi-year sea atmosphere, it has a long residence time requires a focus on the observed and ice makes it unlikely that the Arctic will and is only slowly removed by ocean projected changes in sea ice, snow return to previous climatological absorption and other processes. Based cover, ocean temperature, ocean pH conditions. Continued loss of sea ice on IPCC AR4 climate models, expected (acidity), and associated changes in will be a major driver of changes across increases in global warming—defined as ringed seal prey species. the Arctic over the next decades, the change in global mean surface air The threats (analyzed below) especially in late summer and autumn. temperature (SAT)—by the year 2100 associated with impacts of the warming Sea ice and other climatic conditions depends strongly on the assumed climate on the habitat of ringed seals, to that influence ringed seal habitats are emissions of CO2 and other GHGs. By the extent that they may pose risks to quite different between the Arctic and contrast, global warming projected out these seals, are expected to manifest seasonal ice zones. In the Arctic, sea ice to about 2040–2050 will be primarily throughout the current breeding and loss is a summer feature with a delay in due to emissions that have already molting range (for snow and ice related freeze up occurring into the following occurred and those that will occur over threats) or throughout the entire range fall. Sea ice persists in the Arctic from the next decade. Thus, conditions (for ocean warming and acidification) of late fall through mid-summer due to projected to mid-century are less each of the subspecies, since the spatial cold and dark winter conditions. Sea ice sensitive to assumed future emission

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scenarios. Uncertainty in the amount of primary source of variability results regions (Chukchi Sea, east Siberian Sea, warming out to mid-century is primarily from differences among models in and the central Arctic) six of the models a function of model-to-model factors such as spatial resolution. This simulated sea ice conditions in differences in the way that the physical variation can be addressed and reasonable agreement with observations, processes are incorporated, and this mitigated in part by using the ensemble in two regions (Beaufort and eastern uncertainty can be addressed in means from multiple models. Bering Seas) four models met the predicting ecological responses by There is no universal method for performance criteria, in two regions incorporating the range in projections combining AOGCMs for climate (western Bering and the Barents Seas) a from different models. projections, and there is no one best single model (CCSM3) met the Comprehensive Atmosphere-Ocean model. The approach taken by the BRT performance criteria, and in five regions General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for selecting the models used to project (Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, the Canadian are the major objective tools that future sea ice and snow conditions is Arctic Archipelago, east Greenland, and scientists use to understand the summarized below. complex interaction of processes that the Kara and Laptev Seas) none of the Data and Analytical Methods determine future climate change. The models performed satisfactorily. The IPCC used the simulations from about 2 NMFS scientists have recognized that models also did not meet the dozen AOGCMs developed by 17 the physical basis for some of the performance criteria for the Baltic international modeling centers as the primary threats faced by the species had region and the Sea of Okhotsk. Other basis for the AR4 (IPCC, 2007). The been projected, under certain less direct means of predicting regional AOGCM results are archived as part of assumptions, through the end of the ice cover, such as comparison of surface the Coupled Model Intercomparison 21st century, and that these projections air temperature predictions with past Project-Phase 3 (CMIP3) at the Program currently form the most widely accepted climatology (Sea of Okhotsk), other for Climate Model Diagnosis and version of the best available data about existing analyses (Baltic Sea and Intercomparison (PCMDI). The CMIP3 future conditions. In our risk assessment Hudson Bay), and results from the AOGCMs provide reliable projections, for ringed seals, we therefore considered hemispheric predictions (Baffin Bay, the because they are built on well-known all the projections through the end of Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and the dynamical and physical principles, and the 21st century to analyze the threats East Greenland, Kara, and Laptev Seas), they simulate quite well many large stemming from climate change. were used for regions where ice scale aspects of present-day conditions. The CMIP3 (IPCC) model simulations projections could not be obtained. For However, the coarse resolution of most used in the BRT analyses were obtained the Baltic Sea we reviewed the analysis from PCMDI on-line (PCMDI, 2010). The current climate models dictates careful of Jylha et al. (2008). They used seven six IPCC models previously identified application on small scales in regional climate models and found good by Wang and Overland (2009) as heterogeneous regions. agreement with observations for the There are three main contributors to performing satisfactorily at reproducing the magnitude of the observed seasonal 1902–2000 comparison period. For divergence in AOGCM climate Hudson Bay we referred to the analysis projections: Large natural variations, the cycle of sea ice extent in the Arctic of Joly et al. (2010). They used a range in emissions scenarios, and under the A1B (‘‘medium’’) and A2 regional sea ice-ocean model to across-model differences. The first of (‘‘high’’) emissions scenarios were used investigate the response of sea ice and these, variability from natural variation, to project monthly sea ice can be incorporated by averaging the concentrations in the Northern oceanic heat storage in the Hudson Bay projections over decades, or, preferably, Hemisphere in March–July for each of system to a climate-warming scenario. by forming ensemble averages from the decadal periods 2025–2035, 2045– Regional predictions of snow cover several runs of the same model. The 2055, and 2085–2095. Snow cover on were based on results from the second source of variation arises from sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere was hemispheric projections for Arctic and the range in plausible emissions forecasted using one of the six models, Okhotsk ringed seals, and on other scenarios. As discussed above, the the Community Climate System Model, existing analyses for Baltic, Ladoga, and impacts of the scenarios are rather version 3 (CCSM3, National Center for Saimaa ringed seals. For the Baltic Sea similar before mid-21st century. For the Atmospheric Research) (under the A1B we referred to the analysis of Jylha et al. second half of the 21st century, scenario), a model that is known for (2008) noted above. For lakes Ladoga however, and especially by 2100, the incorporating advanced sea ice physics, and Saimaa we considered the analysis choice of the emission scenario becomes and for which snow data were available. of Saelthun et al. (1998; cited in the major source of variation among To incorporate natural variability, this Kuusisto, 2005). They used a modified climate projections and dominates over model was run seven times. hydrological model to analyze the natural variability and model-to-model Climate models generally perform effects of climate change on differences (IPCC, 2007). Because the better on continental or larger scales, hydrological conditions and runoff in current consensus is to treat all SRES but because habitat changes are not Finland and the Scandinavian uniform throughout the hemisphere, the emissions scenarios as equally likely, Peninsula. one option for representing the full six IPCC models used to project sea ice range of variability in potential conditions in the Northern Hemisphere While our inferences about future outcomes would be to project from any were further evaluated independently regional ice and snow conditions are model under all of the six ‘‘marker’’ on their performance at reproducing the based upon the best available scientific scenarios. This can be impractical in magnitude of the observed seasonal and commercial data, we recognize that many situations, so the typical cycle of sea ice extent in 14 different there are uncertainties associated with procedure for projecting impacts is to regions throughout the ringed seal’s predictions based on hemispheric use an intermediate scenario, such as range, including 12 regions for the projections or indirect means. We also A1B or B2 to predict trends, or one Arctic ringed seal, one region for the note that judging the timing of the onset intermediate and one extreme scenario Okhotsk ringed seal, and one region for of potential impacts to ringed seals is (e.g., A1B and A2) to represent a the Baltic, Ladoga, and Saimaa ringed complicated by the coarse resolution of significant range of variability. The third seals. For Arctic ringed seals, in three the IPCC models.

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Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice and Snow models used by the Arctic Climate In the Bering Sea, April and May ice Cover Predictions Impact Assessment forecasted an cover is projected to decline throughout Projections of Northern Hemisphere average increase in precipitation over this century, with substantial inter- sea ice concentrations for November the Arctic Ocean of 14 percent by the annual variability forecasted in the indicate a major delay in fall freeze-up end of the century (Walsh et al., 2005). eastern Bering Sea. The projection for by 2050 north of Alaska and in the The impact of increased winter May indicates that there will commonly Barents Sea. By 2090, the average sea ice precipitation on the depth of snow on be years with little or no ice in the concentration in November is below 50 sea ice, however, will be counteracted western Bering Sea beyond mid-century. percent in the Russian Arctic, and some by delays in the formation of sea ice. Very little ice has remained in the models show a nearly ice free Arctic, Over most of the Arctic Ocean, snow eastern Bering Sea in June since the except for the region of the Canadian cover reaches its maximal depth in May, mid-1970s. Sea ice cover in the Barents Arctic Archipelago. In March and April, but most of that accumulation takes Sea in April and May is also projected place in the autumn (Sturm et al., 2002). winter type conditions persist out to to decline throughout this century, and Snow depths reach 50 percent of the 2090. There is some reduction of sea ice in the months of June and July, ice is annual maximum by the end of October by 2050 in the outer portions of the expected to disappear rapidly in the and 67 percent of their maximum by the seasonal ice zones, but the sea ice south coming decades. end of November (Radionov et al., of Bering Strait, eastern Barents Sea, Based on model projections, April 1997). Thus, delays of 1–2 months in Baffin Bay, and the Kara and Laptev snow depths over much of the range of the date of ice formation would result in Seas remains substantial. The month of the Arctic ringed seal averaged 25–35 substantial decreases in spring snow May shows diminishing sea ice cover at cm in the first decade of this century, depths despite the potential for 2050 and 2090 in the Barents and Bering consistent with on-ice measurements by increased winter precipitation. Thinner Russian scientists (Weeks, 2010). By Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk. By the ice will be more susceptible to month of June, projections begin to mid-century, a substantial decrease in deforming and producing pressure areas with April snow depths of 25–35 show substantial changes as the century ridges and ice hummocks favoring snow progresses. Current conditions cm is projected (much of it reduced to drifts where depths exceed those on flat 20–15 cm). The deepest snow (25–30 occasionally exhibit a lack of sea ice ice (Iacozaa and Barber, 1999; Strum near the Bering Strait during June. By cm) is forecasted to be found just north et al., 2006). However, as noted above, of Greenland, in the Canadian Arctic 2050, however, this sea ice loss becomes average snow depths of 20–30 cm or a major feature, with open water Archipelago, and in an area tapering more are typically necessary to form north from there into the central Arctic continuing along the northern Alaskan drifts that are deep enough for ringed coast in most models. Open water in Basin. Southerly regions, such as the seal lair formation. As spring air Bering Sea and Barents Sea, are June spreads to the East Siberian Shelf temperatures continue to warm, snow by 2090. The eastern Barents Sea forecasted to have snow depths of 10 cm melt will continue to come earlier in the or less my mid-century. By the end of experiences a reduction in sea ice year. The CCSM3 model forecasted that between 2030 and 2050. The models the century, April snow depths of 20– the accumulation of snow on sea ice 25 cm are forecasted only for a portion indicate that sea ice in Baffin Bay will will decrease by almost 50 percent by of the central Arctic, most of the be affected very little until the end of the end of this century, with more than Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and a few the century. half of that decline projected to occur by small, isolated areas in a few other In July, the Arctic Ocean shows a 2050. Although the forecasted snow regions. Areas with 25–30 cm of snow marked effect of global warming, with accumulations in the seven integrations are projected to be limited to a few the sea ice retreating to a central core as of the model varied, all predicted small isolated pockets in the Canadian the century progresses. The loss of substantial declines over the century. multi-year sea ice over the last 5 years Arctic by 2090–2099. has provided independent evidence for Regional Sea Ice and Snow Cover Okhotsk ringed seal: As noted above, this conclusion. By 2050, the Predictions by Subspecies none of the IPCC models performed continental shelves of the Beaufort, Arctic ringed seal: In the East satisfactorily at projecting sea ice for the Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas are Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, Kara- Sea of Okhotsk, and so projected surface nearly ice free in July, with ice Laptev, and Greenland Seas, as well as air temperatures were examined relative concentrations less than 20 percent in in Baffin Bay, and the Canadian Arctic to current climate conditions as a proxy the ensemble mean projections. The Archipelago, little or no decline in ice to predict sea ice extent and duration. Kara and Laptev Seas also show a extent is expected in April and May Based on that analysis, ice is expected reduction of sea ice in coastal regions by during the remainder of this century. In to persist in the Sea of Okhotsk in mid-century in most but not all models. most of these areas, a moderate decline March during the remainder of this The Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in sea ice is predicted during June century, although ice may be limited to the adjacent Arctic Ocean north of within this century, while substantial the northern region in most years after Canada and Greenland, however, are declines in sea ice are projected in July mid-century. Conditions for sea ice in predicted to become a refuge for sea ice and November after mid-century. The April are likely to be limited to the far through the end of the century. This central Arctic (defined as regions north northern reaches of the Sea of Okhotsk conclusion is supported by typical of 80° N. latitude) also shows declines or non-existent by 2100. Little to no sea Arctic wind patterns, which tend to in sea ice cover that are most apparent ice is expected in May by mid-century. blow onshore in this region. Indeed, this in July and November after 2050. For Average snow depth projections for refuge region is why sea ice scientists Hudson Bay, under a warmer climate April show depths of 15–20 cm only in use the phrase: A nearly sea ice free scenario (for the years 2041–2070) Joly the northern portions of the Sea of summer in the Arctic by mid-century. et al. (2010) projected a reduction in the Okhotsk in the past 10 years and As the Arctic Ocean warms and is sea ice season of 7–9 weeks, with nowhere in that sea by mid-century. By covered by less ice, precipitation is substantial reductions in sea ice cover the end of the century average snow expected to increase overall including most apparent in July and during the depths are projected to be 10 cm or less during the winter months. Five climate first months of winter. even in the northern Sea of Okhotsk.

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Baltic, Ladoga, and Saimaa ringed thrived during glacial maxima and 5–10 cm thick (Lukin and Potelov, seals: For the Baltic Sea, the analysis of survived warm interglacial periods. 1978). Similarly, pup mortality from regional climate models by Jylha¨ et al. How they survived the latter periods or freezing and (Ursus (2008) was considered. They used seven in what numbers is not known. Declines maritimus) predation increased when regional climate models and found good in sea ice cover in recent decades are unusually warm spring temperatures agreement with observations for the more extensive and rapid than any caused early melting near Baffin Island 1902–2000 comparison period. For the known for at least the last few thousand in the late 1970s (Smith and Hammill, forecast period 2071–2100, one model years (Polyak et al., 2010). 1980; Stirling and Smith, 2004). predicted a change to mostly mild Ringed seals create birth lairs in areas Prematurely exposed pups also are conditions, while the remaining models of accumulated snow on stable ice vulnerable to predation by wolves predicted unprecedentedly mild including the shore-fast ice over (Canis lupus) and foxes (Alopex lagopus conditions. They noted that their continental shelves along Arctic coasts, and Vulpes vulpes)—as documented estimates for a warming climate were in bays, and inter-island channels. While during an early snow melt in the White agreement with other studies that found some authors suggest that shorefast ice Sea in 1977 (Lukin, 1980)—and by gulls unprecedentedly mild ice extent is the preferred pupping habitat of (Laridae) and ravens (Corvus corax) as conditions in the majority of years after ringed seals due to its stability documented in the Barents Sea (Gjertz about 2030. The model we used to throughout the pupping and nursing and Lydersen, 1983; Lydersen and project snow depths (CCSM3) did not period, others have documented ringed Gjertz, 1987; Lydersen et al., 1987; provide adequate resolution for the seal pupping on drifting pack ice both Lydersen and Smith, 1989; Lydersen Baltic Sea. The climate models analyzed nearshore and offshore. Both of these and Rig, 1990; Lydersen, 1998). When by Jylha¨ et al. (2008), however, habitats can be affected by earlier lack of snow cover has forced birthing forecasted decreases of 45–60 days in warming and break-up in the spring, to occur in the open, some studies have duration of snow cover by the end of the which shortens the length of time pups reported that nearly 100 percent of pups century in the northern Baltic Sea have to grow and mature in a protected died from predation (Kumlien, 1879; region. The shortened seasonal snow setting. Harwood et al. (2000) reported Lydersen et al., 1987; Lydersen and cover would result primarily from that an early spring break-up negatively Smith, 1989; Smith et al., 1991; Smith earlier spring melts, but also from impacted the growth, condition, and and Lydersen, 1991). The high fidelity delayed onset of snow cover. Depth of apparent survival of unweaned ringed to birthing sites exhibited by ringed snow is forecasted to decrease 50–70 seal pups. Early break-up was believed seals also makes them more susceptible percent in the region over the same to have interrupted lactation in adult to localized degradation of snow cover period. The depth of snow also will be females, which in turn, negatively (Kelly et al., 2010). decreased by mid-winter thaws and rain affected the condition and growth of Increased rain-on-snow events during events. Simulations of the snow cover pups. the late winter also negatively impact indicated that an increasing proportion Unusually heavy ice has also been ringed seal recruitment by damaging or of the snow pack will consist of icy or implicated in shifting distribution, high eliminating snow-covered birth lairs, wet snow. winter mortality, and reduced increasing exposure and the risk of Ice cover has diminished about 12 productivity of ringed seals. It has been hypothermia, and facilitating predation percent over the past 50 years in Lake suggested that reduced ice thickness by polar bears and other predators. Ladoga. Although we are not aware of associated with warming in some areas Stirling and Smith (2004) documented any ice forecasts specific to lakes could lead to increased biological the collapse of subnivean lairs during Ladoga and Saimaa, the simulations of productivity that might benefit ringed unseasonal rains near southeastern future climate reported by Jylha¨ et al. seals, at least in the short-term. Baffin Island and the subsequent (2008) suggest warming winters with However, any transitory and localized exposure of ringed seals to hypothermia. reduced ice and snow cover. Snow benefits of reduced ice thickness are They surmised that most of the pups cover in Finland and the Scandinavian expected to be outweighed by the that survived exposure to cold were Peninsula is projected to decrease 10–30 negative effects of increased eventually killed by polar bears, Arctic percent before mid-century and 50–90 thermoregulatory costs and foxes, or possibly gulls. Stirling and percent by 2100 (Saelthun et al., 1998, vulnerability of seal pups to predation Smith (2004) postulated that, should cited in Kuusisto, 2005). associated with earlier ice break-up and early season rain become regular and reduced snow cover. widespread in the future, mortality of Effects of Changes in Ice and Snow Ringed seals, especially the newborn, ringed seal pups will increase, Cover on Ringed Seals depend on snow cover for protection especially in more southerly parts of Ringed seals are vulnerable to habitat from cold temperatures and predators. their range. loss from changes in the extent or Occupation of subnivean lairs is concentration of sea ice because they especially critical when pups are nursed Potential Impacts of Projected Ice and depend on this habitat for pupping, in late March–June. Ferguson et al. Snow Cover Changes on Ringed Seals nursing, molting, and resting. The (2005) attributed low ringed seal As discussed above, ringed seals ringed seal’s broad distribution, ability recruitment in western Hudson Bay to divide their time between foraging in to undertake long movements, diverse decreased snow depth in April and the water, and reproducing and molting diet, and association with widely May. Reduced snowfall results in less out of the water, where they are varying ice conditions suggest resilience snow drift accumulation next to especially vulnerable to predation. in the face of environmental variability. pressure ridges, and pups in lairs with Females must nurse their pups for 1–2 However, the ringed seal’s long thin snow cover are more vulnerable to months, and the small pups are generation time and ability to produce predation than pups in lairs with thick vulnerable to cold temperatures and only a single pup each year may limit snow cover (Hammill and Smith, 1989; avian and mammalian predators on the its ability to respond to environmental Ferguson et al., 2005). When snow cover ice, especially during the nursing challenges such as the diminishing ice is insufficient, pups can also freeze in period. Thus, a specific habitat and snow cover projected in a matter of their lairs as documented in 1974 when requirement for ringed seals is adequate decades. Ringed seals apparently roofs of lairs in the White Sea were only snow for the occupation of subnivean

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lairs, especially in spring when pups are especially, snow cover are expected to bounded to the north by land; and the born and nursed. lead to increased pup mortality from landlocked seal populations in lakes Northern Hemisphere snow cover has premature weaning, hypothermia, and Ladoga and Saimaa will be unable to declined in recent decades and spring predation. shift their ranges. melt times have become earlier (ACIA, Okhotsk ringed seal: Based on 2005). In most areas of the Arctic Ocean, temperature proxies, ice is expected to Impacts on Ringed Seals Related to snow melt advanced 1–6 weeks from persist in the Sea of Okhotsk through Changes in Ocean Conditions 1979–2007. Throughout most of the the onset of pupping in March through Ocean acidification is an ongoing ringed seal’s range, snow melt occurred the end of this century. Ice suitable for process whereby chemical reactions within a couple of weeks of weaning. pupping and nursing likely will be occur that reduce both seawater pH and Thus, in the past 3 decades, snow melts limited to the northernmost portions of the concentration of carbonate ions in many areas have been pre-dating the sea, as ice is likely to be limited to when CO2 is absorbed by seawater. weaning. Shifts in the timing of that region in April by the end of the Results from global ocean CO2 surveys reproduction by other in century. The snow cover projections over the past two decades have shown response to changes in food availability suggest that snow depths may already that ocean acidification is a predictable have been documented. However, the be inadequate for lairs in the Sea of consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 ability of ringed seals to adapt to earlier Okhotsk, and most Okhotsk ringed seals levels. The process of ocean snow melts by advancing the timing of apparently now give birth on pack ice acidification has long been recognized, reproduction will be limited by snow in the lee of ice hummocks. However, it but the ecological implications of such depths. As discussed above, over most appears unlikely that this behavior chemical changes have only recently of the Arctic Ocean, snow cover reaches could mitigate the threats posed by the begun to be appreciated. The waters of its maximal depth in May, but most of expected decreases in sea ice. The Sea the Arctic and adjacent seas are among that accumulation takes place in of Okhotsk is bounded to the north by the most vulnerable to ocean autumn. It is therefore unlikely that land, which will limit the ability of acidification. Seawater chemistry snow depths for birth lair formation Okhotsk ringed seals to respond to measurements in the Baltic Sea suggest would be improved earlier in the spring. deteriorating sea ice and snow that this sea is equally vulnerable to In addition, the pace at which snow conditions by shifting their range acidification as the Arctic. We are not melts are advancing is rapid relative to northward. Some Okhotsk ringed seals aware of specific acidification studies in the generation time of ringed seals, have been reported on terrestrial resting lakes Ladoga and Saimaa. Fresh water further challenging the potential for an sites during the ice-free season, but systems, however, are much less adaptive response. these sites provide inferior pupping and buffered than ocean waters and are Snow drifted to 45 cm or more is nursing habitat. Within the foreseeable likely to experience even larger changes needed for excavation and maintenance future, the projected decreases in sea ice in acidification levels than marine of simple lairs, and birth lairs require habitat suitable for pupping, nursing, systems. The most likely impact of depths of 50 to 65 cm or more (Smith and molting in the Sea of Okhotsk are ocean acidification on ringed seals will and Stirling, 1975; Lydersen and Gjertz, expected to lead to reduced abundance be at lower tropic levels on which the 1986; Kelly, 1988; Furgal et al., 1996; and productivity. species’ prey depends. Cascading effects Lydersen, 1998; Lukin et al., 2006). Baltic, Ladoga, and Saimaa ringed are likely both in the marine and Such drifts typically only occur where seals: The considerable reductions in freshwater environments. Our limited average snow depths are at least 20–30 ice extent forecasted by mid-century, understanding of planktonic and cm (on flat ice) and where drifting has coupled with deteriorating snow benthic calcifiers in the Arctic (e.g., taken place along pressure ridges or ice conditions, are expected to substantially even their baseline geographical hummocks (Hammill and Smith, 1991; alter the habitats of Baltic ringed seals. distributions) means that future changes Lydersen and Ryg, 1991; Smith and Climate forecasts for northern Europe will be difficult to detect and evaluate. Lydersen, 1991; Ferguson et al., 2005). also suggest reduced ice and snow cover Warming water temperatures and We therefore considered areas for lakes Ladoga and Saimaa within this decreasing ice likely will result in a forecasted to have less than 20 cm century. These habitat changes are contraction in the range of Arctic cod, average snow depth in April to be expected to lead to decreased survival of a primary prey of ringed seals. The same inadequate for the formation of ringed pups (due to hypothermia, predation, changes will lead to colonization of the seal birth lairs. and premature weaning) and Arctic Ocean by more southerly species, Arctic ringed seal: The depth and considerable declines in the abundance including potential prey, predators, and duration of snow cover is projected to of these subspecies in the foreseeable competitors. The outcome of new decrease throughout the range of Arctic future. Recent (2005–2007) high rates of competitive interactions cannot be ringed seals within this century. pup mortality in Saimaa ringed seals specified, but as sea ice specialists, Whether ringed seals will continue to (more than double those in 1980–2000) ringed seals may be at a disadvantage in move north with retreating ice over the have been attributed to insufficient competition with generalists in an ice- deeper, less productive Arctic Basin snow for lair formation and occupation. diminished Arctic. Prey biomass may be waters and whether forage species that Given the small population size of the reduced as a consequence of increased they prey on will also move north is Saimaa ringed seal, this subspecies is at freshwater input and loss of sea ice uncertain (see additional discussion particular risk from the projected habitat habitat for amphipods and copepods. below). Initially, impacts may be changes. Although Baltic, Ladoga, and On the other hand, overall pelagic somewhat ameliorated if the subspecies’ Saimaa ringed seals have been reported productivity may increase. range retracts northward with its sea ice using terrestrial resting sites when ice is habitats. By 2100, however, April snow absent, these sites provide inferior Summary of Factor A cover is forecasted to become pupping and nursing habitat. As sea ice Climate models consistently project inadequate for the formation and and snow conditions deteriorate, Baltic overall diminishing sea ice and snow occupation of ringed seal birth lairs over ringed seals will be limited in their cover at least through the current much of the subspecies’ range. The ability to respond by shifting their range century, with regional variation in the projected decreases in ice and, northward because the Baltic Sea is timing and severity of those losses.

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Increasing atmospheric concentrations Recreational, scientific, and educational High rates of predation on ringed seal of greenhouse gases, including CO2, will uses of ringed seals are minimal and are pups have been associated with drive climate warming and increase not expected to increase significantly in anomalous weather events that caused acidification of the ringed seal’s ocean the foreseeable future. We conclude that subnivean lairs to collapse or melt and lake habitats. The impact of ocean overutilization does not currently before pups were weaned. Thus, warming and acidification on ringed threaten any of the five subspecies of declining snow depths and duration of seals is expected to be primarily through the ringed seal. snow cover during the period when changes in community composition. C. Diseases, Parasites, and Predation ringed seal pups are born and nursed However, the nature and timing of these can be expected to lead to increased changes is uncertain. Ringed seals have co-evolved with predation on ringed seal pups. We Diminishing ice and snow cover are numerous parasites and diseases, and conclude that the threat posed to ringed the greatest challenges to persistence of those relationships are presumed to be seals by predation is currently all of the ringed seal subspecies. While stable. Evidence of distemper virus, for moderate, but predation risk is expected winter precipitation is forecasted to example, has been reported in Arctic to increase as snow and sea ice increase in a warming Arctic, the ringed seals, but there is no evidence of conditions change with a warming impacts to ringed seal abundance or duration of ice cover is projected to be climate. substantially reduced, and the net effect productivity. Abiotic and biotic changes will be lower snow accumulation on the to ringed seal habitat potentially could D. Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory ice. Within the century, snow cover lead to exposure to new pathogens or Mechanisms adequate for the formation and new levels of virulence, but we consider occupation of birth lairs is forecasted the potential threats to ringed seals as A primary concern about the only for parts of the Canadian Arctic low. conservation status of the ringed seal Archipelago, a portion of the central Ringed seals are most commonly stems from the likelihood that its sea ice Arctic, and a few small isolated areas in preyed upon by Arctic foxes and polar habitat has been modified by the a few other regions. Without the bears, and less commonly by other warming climate and, more so, that the protection of lairs, ringed seals, terrestrial carnivores, sharks, and killer scientific consensus projections are for especially newborn, are vulnerable to whales (Orcinus orca). When ringed seal continued and perhaps accelerated freezing and predation. We conclude pups are forced out of subnivean lairs warming in the foreseeable future. A that the ongoing and projected changes prematurely because of low snow second major concern, related by the in sea ice habitat pose significant threats accumulation and/or early melts, gulls common driver of CO2 emissions, is the to the persistence of each of the five and ravens also successfully prey on modification of habitat by ocean subspecies of the ringed seal. them. Avian predation is facilitated not acidification, which may alter prey only by lack of sufficient snow cover but populations and other important aspects B. Overutilization for Commercial, also by conditions favoring influxes of of the marine ecosystem. There are Subsistence, Recreational, Scientific, or birds. Lydersen and Smith (1989) currently no effective mechanisms to Educational Purposes pointed out that the small size of regulate GHG emissions, which are Ringed seals have been hunted by newborn ringed seals, coupled with contributing to global climate change humans for millennia and remain a their prolonged nursing period, make and associated modifications to ringed fundamental subsistence resource for them vulnerable to predation by birds seal habitat. The risk posed to ringed many northern coastal communities and likely sets a southern limit to their seals due to the lack of mechanisms to today. Ringed seals were also harvested distribution. regulate GHG emissions is directly commercially in large numbers during Ringed seals and bearded seals are the correlated to the risk posed by the the 20th century, which led to the primary prey of polar bears. Polar bear effects of these emissions. The depletion of their stocks in many parts predation on ringed seals is most projections we used to assess risks from of their range. Commercial harvests in successful in moving offshore ice, often GHG emissions were based on the the Sea of Okhotsk and predator-control along floe edges and rarely in ice-free assumption that no regulation will take harvests in the Baltic Sea, Lake Ladoga, waters. Polar bears also successfully place (the underlying IPPC emissions and Lake Saimaa caused population hunt ringed seals on stable shorefast ice scenarios were all ‘‘non-mitigated’’ declines in the past, but have since been by catching animals when they surface scenarios). Therefore, the lack of restricted. Although subsistence harvest to breathe and when they occupy lairs. mechanisms to regulate GHG emissions of the Arctic subspecies is currently Hammill and Smith (1991) further noted is already included in our risk substantial in some regions, harvest that polar bear predation on ringed seal assessment. We thus recognize that the levels appear to be sustainable. Climate pups increased 4-fold in a year when lack of effective mechanisms to regulate change is likely to alter patterns of average snow depths in their study area global GHG emissions is contributing to subsistence harvest of marine mammals decreased from 23 to 10 cm. They the risks posed to ringed seals by these by changing their local densities or concluded that while a high proportion emissions. distributions in relation to hunting of pups born each year are lost to communities. Predictions of the impacts predation, ‘‘without the protection Drowning in fishing gear has been of climate change on subsistence provided by the subnivean lair, pup reported as the most common cause of hunting pressure are constrained by the mortality would be much higher.’’ death reported for Saimaa ringed seals. complexity of interacting variables and The distribution of Arctic foxes Although there have been seasonal imprecision of climate and sea ice broadly overlaps with that of Arctic fishing restrictions instituted in some models at small scales. Accurate ringed seals. Arctic foxes prey on parts of Lake Saimaa, these are information on both harvest levels and newborn seals by tunneling into the apparently insufficient, as annual loss of species’ abundance and trends will be birth lairs. The range of the red fox seals has continued. We therefore needed in order to assess the impacts of overlaps with that of the Okhotsk, conclude that the inadequacy of existing hunting as well as to respond Baltic, Saimaa, and Ladoga subspecies, mechanisms to regulate bycatch of appropriately to potential climate- and on rare occasion red foxes also prey Saimma ringed seals is contributing to induced changes in populations. on newborn ringed seals in lairs. its endangered status.

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E. Other Natural or Manmade Factors change is expected to enhance marine operations are active off the Affecting the Species’ Continued access to offshore oil and gas reserves by northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, Existence Pollution and Contaminants reducing sea ice extent, thickness, and and future developments are planned in Contaminants research on ringed seals seasonal duration, thereby improving the western Kamchatka and Magadan is very extensive and has been ship access to these resources around regions. A major project underway in the conducted in most parts of the species’ the margins of the Arctic Basin. Oil and Baltic Sea is the Nord Stream 1,200-km range (with the exception of the Sea of gas exploration, development, and production activities include, but are gas line, which will be the longest Okhotsk), particularly throughout the not limited to: Seismic surveys; subsea natural gas pipeline in the world. Arctic environment where ringed seals exploratory, delineation, and Concerns have been expressed about the are an important diet item in coastal production drilling operations; potential disturbance of World War II human communities. Pollutants such as construction of artificial islands, landmines and chemical toxins in the organochlorine (OC) compounds and causeways, ice roads, shore-based sediment during construction. There are heavy metals have been found in all of facilities, and pipelines; and vessel and also concerns about potential leaks and the subspecies of ringed seal (with the aircraft operations. These activities have spills from the pipeline and impacts on exception of the Okhotsk ringed seal). the potential to impact ringed seals the Baltic Sea marine environment once The variety, sources, and transport primarily through noise, physical the pipeline is operational. Circulation mechanisms of contaminants vary disturbance, and pollution, particularly of waters in the Baltic Sea is limited and across ringed seal ecosystems. Statistical in the event of a large oil spill or any contaminants may not be flushed analysis of OC compounds in marine blowout. efficiently. mammals has shown that, for most OCs, Within the range of the Arctic ringed Large oil spills or blowouts are the European Arctic is more seal, offshore oil and gas exploration considered to be the greatest threat of oil contaminated than the Canadian and and production activities are currently and gas exploration activities in the U.S. Arctic. underway in the United States, Canada, marine environment. In contrast to Reduced productivity in the Baltic Greenland, Norway, and Russia. In the spills on land, large spills at sea are ringed seal in recent decades resulted United States, oil and gas activities have difficult to contain and may spread over from impaired fertility that was been conducted off the coast of Alaska hundreds or thousands of kilometers. associated with pollutants. High levels since the 1970s, with most of the Responding to a spill in the Arctic of DDT (dichloro-diphenyl- activity occurring in the Beaufort Sea. environment would be particularly trichloroethane) and PCBs Although five exploratory wells have challenging. Reaching a spill site and (polychlorinated biphenyls) were found been drilled in the past, no oil fields responding effectively would be in Baltic (Bothnian Bay) ringed seals in have been developed or brought into especially difficult, if not impossible, in the 1960s and 1970s, and PCB levels production in the Chukchi Sea to date. winter when weather can be severe and were correlated with reproductive In December 2009, an exploration plan daylight extremely limited. Oil spills failure. More recently, PFOSs was approved by the Bureau of Ocean under ice or in ice-covered waters are (perfluorooctane sulfonate; a Energy Management, Regulation, and the most challenging to deal with, perfluorinated contaminant or PFC) Enforcement (formerly the Minerals simply because they cannot be were reported as 15 times greater in Management Service) for drilling at five contained or recovered effectively with Baltic ringed seals than in Arctic ringed potential sites within three prospects in current technology. The difficulties seals. the Chukchi Sea in 2010. These plans experienced in stopping and containing Mercury levels detected in Saimaa have been put on hold until at least the oil blowout at the Deepwater ringed seals were higher than those 2011 pending further review following Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico, reported for the Baltic Sea and Arctic the Deepwater Horizon blowout in the where environmental conditions and Ocean. It has been suggested that high Gulf of Mexico. There are no offshore oil response preparedness are mercury levels may have contributed to or gas fields currently in development comparatively good, point toward even the Saimaa ringed seal’s population or production in the Bering Sea. greater challenges of attempting a decline in the 1960s and 1970s. The Of all the oil and gas produced in the similar feat in a much more high level of mercury in the seal’s prey Arctic today, about 80 percent of the oil environmentally severe and and shortage of selenium would reduce and 99 percent of the gas comes from geographically remote location. the seal’s capacity for metabolic the Russian Arctic (AMAP, 2007). With Although planning, management, and detoxification. The major source of over 75 percent of known Arctic oil, use of best practices can help reduce mercury in Lake Saimaa has been noted over 90 percent of known Arctic gas, risks and impacts, the history of oil and as the pulp industry. and vast estimates of undiscovered oil gas activities, including recent events, Present and future impacts of and gas reserves, Russia will continue to indicates that accidents cannot be contaminants on ringed seal be the dominant producer of Arctic oil eliminated. Tanker spills, pipeline populations should remain a high and gas in the future (AMAP, 2007). Oil leaks, and oil blowouts are likely to priority issue. Climate change has the and gas developments in the Kara and occur in the future, even under the most potential to increase the transport of Barents Seas began in 1992, and large- stringent regulatory and safety systems. pollutants from lower latitudes to the scale production activities were In the Sea of Okhotsk, an accident at an Arctic, highlighting the importance of initiated during 1998–2000. Oil and gas oil production complex resulted in a continued monitoring of ringed seal production activities are expected to large (3.5-ton) spill in 1999, and in contaminant levels. grow in the western Siberian provinces winter 2009, an unknown quantity of oil and Kara and Barents Seas in the future. associated with a tanker fouled 3 km of Oil and Gas Activities Recently there has also been renewed coastline and hundreds of birds in Extensive oil and gas reserves coupled interest in the Russian Chukchi Sea, as Aniva Bay. To date, there have been no with rising global demand make it very new evidence emerges to support the large spills in the Arctic marine likely that oil and gas activity will notion that the region may contain environment from oil and gas activities. increase throughout the U.S. Arctic and world-class oil and gas reserves. In the Researchers have suggested that pups internationally in the future. Climate Sea of Okhotsk, oil and natural gas of ice-associated seals may be

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particularly vulnerable to fouling of seals were caught by fishing gear Ocean as a potential waterway for their dense lanugo coats. Adults, annually during the period 1997–1999. coastal, regional, and trans-Arctic juveniles, and weaned young of the year There are no estimates of seal bycatch marine operations. Climate models rely on blubber for insulation, so effects from Lithuanian, Estonian, or Russian predict that the warming trend in the on their thermoregulation are expected waters of the Baltic. It has been Arctic will accelerate, causing the ice to to be minimal. A variety of other acute suggested that decreases in the use of begin melting earlier in the spring and effects of oil exposure have been shown the most harmful types of nets (i.e., resume freezing later in the fall, to reduce seals’ health and possibly gillnets and unprotected trap nets), resulting in an expansion of potential survival. Direct ingestion of oil, along with the development of seal- shipping routes and lengthening the ingestion of contaminated prey, or proof fishing gear, may have resulted in potential navigation season. inhalation of hydrocarbon vapors can a decline in Baltic ringed seal bycatch The most significant risk posed by cause serious health effects including (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, shipping activities in the Arctic is the death. 2007). accidental or illegal discharge of oil or It is important to evaluate the effects It has been estimated that 200–400 other toxic substances carried by ships, of anthropogenic perturbations, such as Ladoga ringed seals died annually in due to their immediate and potentially oil spills, in the context of historical fishing gear during the late 1980s and long-term effects on individual animals, data. Without historical data on early 1990s. Fishing patterns have populations, food webs, and the distribution and abundance, it is reportedly changed since then due to environment. Shipping activities can difficult to predict the impacts of an oil changes in the economic market. As of also affect ringed seals directly through spill on ringed seals. Population the late 1990s, fishing was not regarded noise and physical disturbance (e.g., monitoring studies implemented in to be a threat to Ladoga ringed seal icebreaking vessels), as well as areas where significant industrial populations, but it was suggested that it indirectly through ship emissions and activities are likely to occur would could become so should market possible effects of introduction of exotic allow for comparison of future impacts conditions improve (Sipila¨ and species on the lower trophic levels of with historical patterns, and thus to Hyva¨rinen, 1998). Based on interviews ringed seal food webs. determine the magnitude of potential with fishermen in Lake Ladoga, Current and future shipping activities effects. Verevkin et al. (2006) reported that at in the Arctic pose varying levels of least 483 Ladoga ringed seals were Commercial Fisheries Interactions and threats to ringed seals depending on the killed in fishing gear in 2003, even Bycatch though official records only recorded 60 type and intensity of the shipping Commercial fisheries may impact cases of bycatch. These figures from activity and its degree of spatial and ringed seals through direct interactions 2003 suggest that bycatch mortality is temporal overlap with ringed seal (i.e., incidental take or bycatch) and likely to be a continuing conservation habitats. These factors are inherently indirectly through competition for prey concern for Ladoga ringed seals. difficult to know or predict, making resources and other impacts on prey Small-scale fishing was thought to be threat assessment highly uncertain. populations. Estimates of Arctic ringed the most serious threat to ringed seals in However, given what is currently seal bycatch could only be found for Lake Saimaa (Sipila¨ and Hyva¨rinen, known about ringed seal populations commercial fisheries that operate in 1998). More than half of the Saimaa seal and shipping activity in the Arctic, Alaskan waters. Based on data from carcasses that were examined for the some general assessments can be made. 2002–2006, there has been an annual period 1977–2000 were determined to Arctic ringed seal densities are variable average of 0.46 mortalities of Arctic have died from drowning in fishing and depend on many factors; however, ringed seals incidental to commercial gear, making this the most common they are often reported to be widely fishing operations. NAMMCO (2002) cause of death for Saimaa ringed seals. distributed in relatively low densities stated that in the North Atlantic region Season and gear restrictions have been and rarely congregate in large numbers. Arctic ringed seals are seldom caught in implemented in some parts of the lake This may help mitigate the risks of more fishing gear because their distribution to reduce bycatch. However, during the localized shipping threats (e.g., oil spills does not coincide with intensive late 1990s, 1–3 adult ringed seals were or physical disturbance), since the fisheries in most areas. No information lost annually from drowning in fishing impacts from such events would be less could be found regarding ringed seal gear (Sipila¨ and Hyva¨rinen, 1998), and likely to affect large numbers of seals. bycatch levels in the Sea of Okhotsk; bycatch mortalities have been reported The fact that nearly all shipping activity however, given the intensive levels of since then, indicating that bycatch in the Arctic (with the exception of commercial fishing that occur in this mortality remains a significant icebreaking) purposefully avoids areas sea, bycatch of ringed seals likely occurs conservation concern. of ice and primarily occurs during the on some level there. For indirect interactions, we note that ice-free or low-ice seasons also helps to Drowning in fishing gear has been commercial fisheries target a number of mitigate the risks associated with reported as one of the most significant known ringed seal prey species such as shipping to ringed seals, since they are mortality factors for seals in the Baltic walleye pollock (Theragra closely associated with ice at nearly all Sea, especially for young seals, which chalcogramma), Pacific cod, herring times of the year. Icebreakers pose are prone to getting trapped in fishing (Clupea sp.), and capelin. These special risks to ringed seals because nets. There are no reliable estimates of fisheries may affect ringed seals they are capable of operating year-round seal bycatch in this sea, and existing indirectly through reductions in prey in all but the heaviest ice conditions estimates are known to be low in many biomass and through other fishing and are often used to escort other types areas, making risk assessment difficult. mediated changes in ringed seal prey of vessels (e.g., tankers and bulk Based on monitoring of 5 percent of the species. carriers) through ice-covered areas. If commercial fishing effort in the icebreaking activities increase in the Swedish coastal fisheries, bycatch of Shipping Arctic in the future as expected, the Baltic ringed seals was estimated at 50 The extraordinary reduction in Arctic likelihood of negative impacts (e.g., oil seals in 2004. In Finland, it was sea ice that has occurred in recent years spills, pollution, noise, disturbance, and estimated that about 70 Baltic ringed has renewed interest in using the Arctic habitat alteration) occurring in ice-

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covered areas where ringed seals occur to overlap spatially in these regions, and ringed seal, we consider the risk posed will likely also increase. a single accident (e.g., a large oil spill) to this subspecies from mortality Though few details are available could potentially impact these smaller incidental to fishing activities to be a regarding actual shipping levels in the populations severely. However, the lack significant factor in our classification of Sea of Okhotsk, resource development of specific information on actual threats the Saimaa ringed seal as endangered. over the last decade stands out as a and impacts (now and in the future) Analysis of Demographic Risks likely significant contributor. It is clear makes threat assessment in these that relatively high levels of shipping regions similarly uncertain. More Threats to a species’ long-term are needed to support present oil and information is needed in order to persistence are manifested gas operations. In addition, large-scale adequately assess the risks of shipping demographically as risks to its commercial fishing occurs in many to ringed seals. abundance; productivity; spatial parts of the sea. Winter shipping structure and connectivity; and genetic activities in the southern Sea of Okhotsk Summary of Factor E and ecological diversity. These are expected to increase considerably as We find that the threats posed by demographic risks provide the most oil and gas production pushes the pollutants, oil and gas activities, direct indices or proxies of extinction development and use of new classes of fisheries, and shipping, do not risk. A species at very low levels of icebreaking ships, thereby increasing individually or cumulatively raise abundance and with few populations the potential for shipping accidents and concern about them placing the Arctic will be less tolerant to environmental oil spills in the ice-covered regions of or Okhotsk subspecies of ringed seals at variation, catastrophic events, genetic this sea. risk of becoming endangered. We processes, demographic stochasticity, The Baltic Sea is one of the most recognize, however, that the ecological interactions, and other heavily trafficked shipping areas in the significance of these threats would processes. A rate of productivity that is world, with more than 2,000 large ships increase for populations diminished by unstable or declining over a long period (including about 200 oil tankers) sailing the effects of climate change or other of time can indicate poor resiliency to on its waters on an average day. threats. future environmental change. A species Additionally, ferry lines, fishing boats, Reduced productivity in the Baltic that is not widely distributed across a and cruise ships frequent the Baltic Sea. Sea ringed seal in recent decades variety of well-connected habitats is at Both the number and size of ships resulted from impaired fertility that was increased risk of extinction due to (especially oil tankers) have grown in associated with pollutants. We do not environmental perturbations, including recent years, and the amount of oil have any information to conclude that catastrophic events. A species that has transported in the Baltic (especially there are currently population-level lost locally adapted genetic and from the Gulf of Finland) has increased effects on Baltic ringed seals from ecological diversity may lack the raw significantly since 2000. The risk of oil contaminant exposure. We find that the resources necessary to exploit a wide exposure for seals living in the Baltic threats posed by pollutants, petroleum array of environments and endure short- Sea is considered to be greatest in the development, commercial fisheries, and and long-term environmental changes. Gulf of Finland, where oil shipping increased ship traffic do not The key factors limiting the viability routes pass through ringed seal pupping individually or cumulatively pose a of all five ringed seal subspecies are the areas as well as close to rocks and islets significant risk to the persistence of the forecasted reductions in ice extent and, where seals sometimes haul out. Baltic ringed seal throughout all or a in particular, depths and duration of Icebreaking during the winter is significant portion of this subspecies’ snow cover on ice. Early snow melts considered to be the most significant range. We recognize, however, that the already are evident in much of the marine traffic factor for seals in the significance of these threats would species’ range. Increasingly late ice Baltic Sea, especially in the Bothnian increase for populations diminished by formation in autumn is forecasted, Bay. the effects of climate change or other contributing to expectations of Lakes Ladoga and Saimaa are threats. We also note that, particularly substantial decreases in snow connected to the Baltic Sea and other given the elevated contaminant load in accumulation. The ringed seal’s specific bodies of water via a network of rivers the Baltic Sea, continued efforts are requirement for habitats with adequate and canals and are used as waterways necessary to ensure that population- spring snow cover is manifested in the to transport people, resources, and cargo level effects from contaminant exposure pups’ low tolerance for exposure to wet, throughout the Baltic region. However, do not recur in Baltic ringed seals in the cold conditions and their vulnerability reviews of the biology and conservation future. to predation. Premature failure of the of Ladoga and Samiaa ringed seals have Drowning of seals in fishing gear and snow cover has caused high mortality not identified shipping-related activities disturbance by human activities are due to freezing and predation. Climate (other than accidental bycatch in fishing conservation concerns for ringed seals warming will result in increasingly gear) as being important risks to the in lakes Ladoga and Saimaa and could early snow melts, exposing vulnerable conservation status of these subspecies. exacerbate the effects of climate change ringed seal pups to predators and The threats posed from shipping on these seal populations. Drowning in hypothermia. activity in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baltic fishing gear is also one of the most The BRT considered the current risks Sea, and lakes Ladoga and Saimaa are significant sources of mortality for to the persistence of Arctic, Okhotsk, largely the same as they are for the ringed seals in the Baltic Sea. We Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seals as low Arctic. Two obvious but important currently do not have any data to to moderate. Given the low population distinctions between these regions and conclude that these threats are having size (less than 300 seals) of the Saimaa the Arctic are that these bodies of water population-level effects on Ladoga or ringed seal, the present risk to are geographically smaller and more Baltic ringed seals. However, bycatch population persistence was judged by confined than many areas where the mortality in Lake Ladoga particularly the BRT to be high for all of the Arctic subspecies lives, and they warrants additional investigation, as demographic attributes. contain much smaller populations of does consideration of ways to minimize Within the foreseeable future, the BRT ringed seals. Therefore, shipping seal entanglement in fishing gear. Given judged the risks to Arctic ringed seal impacts and ringed seals are more likely the very low numbers of the Saimaa persistence to be moderate (diversity

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and abundance) to high (productivity these efforts, under the ESA and our hunting under Finnish law since 1955; and spatial structure). As noted above, Policy on the Evaluation of (2) The Saimaa ringed seal is designated the impacts to Arctic ringed seals may Conservation Efforts (PECE) (68 FR as an ‘‘Endangered’’ species on the be somewhat ameliorated initially if the 15100; March 28, 2003), we must Finnish Red List; (3) To conserve seal subspecies’s range retracts northward evaluate the certainty of implementing breeding areas, new construction on with sea ice habitats, but by the end of the conservation efforts and the Lake Saimaa is not permitted within the century snow depths are projected certainty that the conservation efforts designated shoreline conservation areas to be insufficient for lair formation and will be effective on the basis of whether (water bodies excluded), some of which maintenance throughout much of the the effort or plan establishes specific are located within two national parks; subspecies’ range. The BRT also judged conservation objectives, identifies the (4) New construction on Lake Saimaa the risks to persistence of the Okhotsk necessary steps to reduce threats or outside of designated shoreline ringed seal in the foreseeable future to factors for decline, includes quantifiable conservation areas has been regulated be moderate (diversity) to high performance measures for the since 1999 to limit the density of new (abundance, productivity, and spatial monitoring of compliance and buildings; however, it has been reported structure). Okhotsk ringed seals will effectiveness, incorporates the that lakeshore development has still have limited opportunity to shift their principles of adaptive management, and increased substantially; (5) To reduce range northward because the sea ice will is likely to improve the species’ viability mortalities due to fishery interactions, retract toward land. at the time of the listing determination. restrictions have been placed on certain Risks to ringed seal persistence within types of fishing gear within the breeding International Conservation Efforts the foreseeable future were judged by areas of the Saimaa ringed seal, and Specifically To Protect Ringed Seals the BRT to be highest for the Baltic, seasonal closure agreements have been Ladoga, and, in particular, Saimaa Baltic ringed seals: (1) Some protected signed with numerous fishing ringed seal. Risks were judged as areas in Sweden, Finland, the Russian associations. However, continuing loss moderate (diversity) to high (abundance Federation, and Estonia include Baltic of seals, in particular juveniles, due to productivity, and spatial structure) for ringed seal habitat; (2) The Baltic ringed drowning in fishing gear has been Baltic ringed seals; moderate (diversity), seal is included in the Red Book of the reported. A working group for or high to very high (abundance, Russian Federation as ‘‘Category 2’’ reconciliation of fishing and productivity, and spatial structure) for (decreasing abundance), is classified as conservation of Saimaa ringed seals has Ladoga ringed seals; and high to very ‘‘Endangered’’ in the Red Data Book of recommended establishing a single high (abundance, productivity, spatial Estonia, and is listed as ‘‘Near contiguous protected area by December structure, and diversity) for Saimaa Threatened’’ on the Finnish and 2010 within which a mandatory ringed seals. As noted above, Ladoga Swedish Red Lists; (3) Hunting of Baltic seasonal net fishing closure and other and Saimaa ringed seals are landlocked ringed seals has been suspended in fishing restrictions would be populations that will be unable to Baltic Sea region countries, although implemented. The Finnish Ministry of respond to the pronounced degradation Finland is permitting the harvest of Agriculture and Forestry recently of ice and snow habitats forecasted to small numbers of ringed seals in reported that the Finnish government occur by shifting their range. In Bothnia Bay beginning in 2010; and (4) has signed agreements with most of the addition, the range of the Baltic ringed Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Saimaa Lake fishing associations and seal is bounded to the north by land, recommendation 27–28/2 (2006) on that it is continuing to negotiate and so there is limited opportunity for conservation of seals in the Baltic Sea agreements with a few associations. this subspecies to shift its range. The established a seal expert group to However, in May 2010 the European low density of the Saimaa ringed seal address and coordinate seal Commission sent formal notice to population coupled with limited conservation and management across Finland that it had not implemented dispersal opportunities and depensatory the Baltic Sea region. This expert group adequate measures to protect the Saimaa effects continue to put this subspecies at has made progress toward completing a ringed seal and that better targeted risk of extinction. An estimate of the set of related tasks identified in the measures are still needed. demographic effective population size HELCOM recommendation, including of Saimaa ringed seals indicated that coordinating development of national International Agreements low population size is exacerbated by management plans and developing The International Union for the habitat fragmentation and that the monitoring programs. The national red Conservation of Nature and Natural subspecies is ‘‘vulnerable to extinction lists and red data books noted above Resources (IUCN) Red List identifies due to demographic stochasticity alone’’ highlight the conservation status of and documents those species believed (Kokko et al., 1998). listed species and can inform by its reviewers to be most in need of conservation planning and conservation attention if global Conservation Efforts prioritization. extinction rates are to be reduced, and When considering the listing of a Ladoga ringed seals: (1) Hunting of is widely recognized as the most species, section 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA ringed seals in Lake Ladoga has been comprehensive, apolitical global requires us to consider efforts by any prohibited since 1980; (2) In May 2009, approach for evaluating the State, foreign nation, or political Ladoga Skerries National Park, which conservation status of plant and subdivision of a State or foreign nation will encompass northern and northwest species. In order to produce Red Lists of to protect the species. Such efforts Lake Ladoga, was added to the Russian threatened species worldwide, the IUCN would include measures by Native Federation’s list of protected areas to be Species Survival Commission draws on American tribes and organizations, local established; and (3) The Ladoga ringed a network of scientists and partner governments, and private organizations. seal is included in the Red Data Books organizations, which uses a Also, Federal, tribal, state, and foreign of the Russian Federation, the Leningrad standardized assessment process to recovery actions (16 U.S.C. 1533(f)), and Region, and Karelia. determine species’ risks of extinction. Federal consultation requirements (16 Saimaa ringed seals: (1) The Saimaa However, it should be noted that the U.S.C. 1536) constitute conservation ringed seal is classified as a non-game IUCN Red List assessment criteria differ measures. In addition to identifying species, and has been protected from from the listing criteria provided by the

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ESA. The ringed seal is currently species determined to be in need of There are no known regulatory classified as a species of ‘‘Least Concern’’ strict protection, and Annex V identifies mechanisms that effectively address the on the IUCN Red List. The Red List species whose exploitation may require factors believed to be contributing to assessment notes that, given the risks specific management measures to reductions in ringed seal sea ice habitat posed to the ringed seal by climate maintain favorable conservation status. at this time. The primary international change, the conservation status of all The Saimaa ringed seal is listed in regulatory mechanisms addressing GHG ringed seal subspecies should be Annex II (as a priority species) and IV, emissions and global warming are the reassessed within a decade. The the Baltic ringed seal is listed in Annex United Nations Framework Convention European Red List compiles II and V, and the Arctic ringed seal is on Climate Change and the Kyoto assessments of the conservation status listed in Annex V. Some designated Protocol. However, the Kyoto Protocol’s of European species according to IUCN Natura 2000 sites include Baltic or first commitment period sets targets for red listing guidelines. The assessment Saimaa ringed seal habitat. Although action only through 2012. There is no for the ringed seal currently classifies Finland has implemented specific regulatory mechanism governing GHG the Saimaa ringed seal as ‘‘Endangered’’ management measures and designated emissions in the years beyond 2012. The and the Ladoga ringed seal as conservation areas for Saimaa ringed United States, although a signatory to ‘‘Vulnerable.’’ The Baltic ringed seal is seals, as discussed above, the European the Kyoto Protocol, has not ratified it; classified as a species of ‘‘Least Concern’’ Commission has sent its first formal therefore, the Kyoto Protocol is non- on the European Red List, with the notice to Finland that better targeted binding on the United States. caveats that population numbers remain measures are urgently needed. Domestic U.S. Regulatory Mechanisms low and that there are significant In 2005 the International Maritime conservation concerns in some part of Organization (IMO) designated the Several laws exist that directly or the Baltic Sea. Similar to inclusion in Baltic Sea Area outside of Russian indirectly promote the conservation and national red lists and red data books, territorial waters as a Particularly protection of ringed seals. These include these listings highlight the conservation Sensitive Sea Area (PSSA), which the Marine Mammal Protection Act of status of listed species and can inform provides a framework under IMOS’s 1972, as Amended, the National conservation planning and International Convention for the Environmental Policy Act, the Outer prioritization. Prevention of Pollution from Ships Continental Shelf Lands Act, the Coastal The Convention on the Conservation (MARPOL 73/78) for developing Zone Management Act, and the Marine of European Wildlife and Natural internationally agreed upon measures to Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Habitats (Bern Convention) is a regional reduce risks posed from maritime Act. Although there are some existing treaty on conservation. Current parties shipping activities. To date, a maritime domestic regulatory mechanisms to the Bern Convention within the range traffic separation scheme is the sole directed at reducing GHG emissions, of the ringed seal include Norway, protective measure associated with the these mechanisms are not expected to Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Baltic PSSA. Expansion of Russian oil be effective in counteracting the The agreement calls for signatories to terminals is contributing to a marked increase in global GHG emissions provide special protection for fauna increase in oil transport in the Baltic within the foreseeable future. species listed in Appendix II (species to Sea; however, the Russian Federation At this time, we are not aware of any be strictly protected) and Appendix III has declined to support the Baltic Sea formalized conservation efforts for to the convention (species for which any PSSA designation. ringed seals that have yet to be exploitation is to be regulated). The Saimaa and Ladoga ringed seals are HELCOM’s main goal since the implemented, or which have recently listed under Appendix II, and other Helsinki convention first entered force been implemented, but have yet to show ringed seals fall under Appendix III. As in 1980 has been to address Baltic Sea their effectiveness in removing threats discussed above, the Saimaa ringed seal pollution caused by hazardous to the species. Therefore, we do not has been protected from hunting since substances and to restore and safeguard need to evaluate any conservation 1955, hunting of Ladoga ringed seals has the ecology of the Baltic. HELCOM acts efforts under the PECE. been prohibited since 1980, and hunting as a coordinating body among the nine NMFS has established a co- of Baltic ringed seals has also been countries with coasts along the Baltic management agreement with the Ice suspended (but with the recent Sea. Activities of HELCOM have led to Seal Committee (ISC) to conserve and exception noted above). significant reductions in a number of provide co-management of subsistence The provisions of the Council of the monitored hazardous substances in the use of ice seals by Alaska Natives. The European Union’s Directive 92/43/EEC Baltic Sea. However, pollution caused ISC is an Alaska Native Organization on the Conservation of Natural Habitats by hazardous substances continues to dedicated to conserving seal of Wild Fauna and Flora (Habitats pose risks. populations, habitat, and hunting in Directive) are intended to promote the The Agreement on Cooperation in order to help preserve native cultures conservation of biodiversity in Research, Conservation, and and traditions. The ISC co-manages ice European Union (EU) member Management of Marine Mammals in the seals with NMFS by monitoring countries. EU members meet the habitat North Atlantic (North Atlantic Marine subsistence harvest and cooperating on conservation requirements of the Mammal Commission [NAMMCO]) was needed research and education directive by designating qualified sites established in 1992 by a regional programs pertaining to ice seals. for inclusion in a special conservation agreement among the governments of NMFS’s National Marine Mammal areas network known as Natura 2000. Greenland, Iceland, Norway, and the Laboratory is engaged in an active Current members of the EU within the Faroe Islands to cooperatively conserve research program for ringed seals. The range of the ringed seal include Sweden, and manage marine mammals in the new information from research will be Finland, and Estonia. Annex II to the North Atlantic. NAMMCO has provided used to enhance our understanding of Habitats Directive lists species whose a forum for the exchange of information the risk factors affecting ringed seals, conservation is to be specifically and coordination among member thereby improving our ability to develop considered in designating special countries on ringed seal research and effective management measures for the conservation areas, Annex IV identifies management. species.

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Proposed Determinations will limit the ability of Okhotsk ringed deteriorate, the landlocked population We have reviewed the status of the seals to respond to deteriorating sea ice of Ladoga ringed seals will be unable to ringed seal, fully considering the best and snow conditions by shifting their respond by shifting its range. (3) scientific and commercial data range northward. (3) Although some Although Ladoga ringed seals have been available, including the status review Okhotsk ringed seals have been reported reported resting on rocks and island report. We have reviewed threats to the resting on island shores during the ice- shores during the ice-free season, these five subspecies of the ringed seal, as free season, these sites provide inferior sites provide inferior pupping and well as other relevant factors, and given pupping and nursing habitat. (4) The nursing habitat. (4) The Ladoga ringed consideration to conservation efforts Okhotsk ringed seal’s pupping and seal’s pupping and nursing seasons are and special designations for ringed seals nursing seasons are adapted to the adapted to the phenology of ice and by states and foreign nations. In phenology of ice and snow. Decreases in snow. Reductions in ice and snow are consideration of all of the threats and sea ice habitat suitable for pupping, expected to lead to decreased survival of nursing, and molting will likely lead to pups and a substantial decline in the potential threats to ringed seals declines in abundance and productivity abundance of this subspecies. We identified above, the assessment of the of the Okhotsk subspecies. We conclude conclude that the Ladoga subspecies of risks posed by those threats, the that the Okhotsk subspecies of the the ringed seal is not in danger of possible cumulative impacts, and the ringed seal is not in danger of extinction extinction throughout all or a significant uncertainty associated with all of these, throughout all or a significant portion of portion of its range, but is likely to we draw the following conclusions: Arctic subspecies: (1) There are no its range, but is likely to become so become so within the foreseeable future. within the foreseeable future. Therefore, Therefore, we propose to list the Ladoga specific estimates of population size we propose to list the Okhotsk subspecies of the ringed seal as available for the Arctic subspecies, but subspecies of the ringed seal as threatened under the ESA. most experts would postulate that the threatened under the ESA. Saimaa subspecies: (1) The Saimaa population numbers in the millions. (2) Baltic subspecies: (1) Current ringed seal population currently The depth and duration of snow cover estimates of 10,000 Baltic ringed seals numbers less than 300 animals, and has are forecasted to decrease substantially suggest that the population has been been significantly reduced from throughout the range of the Arctic significantly reduced from historical historical numbers. (2) Although the ringed seal. Within this century, snow numbers. (2) Reduced productivity in population has slowly grown under cover is forecasted to be inadequate for the Baltic subspecies in recent decades active management, it currently exists at the formation and occupation of birth resulted from impaired fertility levels where it is at risk of extinction lairs over most of the subspecies’ range. associated with pollutants. (3) Dramatic from demographic stochasticity and (3) Because ringed seals stay with the reductions in sea ice extent are small population effects. (3) Reduced ice as it annually advances and retreats, projected by mid-century and beyond in ice and snow cover are expected in Lake the southern edge of the ringed seal’s the Baltic Sea, coupled with declining Saimaa within this century. As ice and range may initially shift northward. depth and insulating properties of snow snow conditions deteriorate, the Whether ringed seals will continue to cover on Baltic Sea ice. The Baltic Sea landlocked population of Saimaa ringed move north with retreating ice over the is bounded to the north by land, which seal will be unable to respond by deeper, less productive Arctic Basin will limit the ability of Baltic ringed shifting its range. (4) Although Saimaa waters and whether the species that seals to respond to deteriorating sea ice ringed seals have been reported resting they prey on will also move north is and snow conditions by shifting their on rocks and island shores during the uncertain. (4) The Arctic ringed seal’s range northward. (4) Although Baltic ice-free season, these sites provide pupping and nursing seasons are ringed seals have been reported resting inferior pupping and nursing habitat. (5) adapted to the phenology of ice and on island shores or offshore reefs during The Saimaa ringed seal’s pupping and snow. The projected decreases in sea the ice-free season, these sites provide nursing seasons are adapted to the ice, and especially snow cover, will inferior pupping and nursing habitat. (5) phenology of ice and snow. Reductions likely lead to decreased pup survival The Baltic ringed seal’s pupping and in ice and snow cover are expected to and a substantial decline in the nursing seasons are adapted to the lead to decreased survival of pups and abundance of the Arctic subspecies. We phenology of ice and snow. The a substantial decline in the abundance conclude that the Arctic subspecies of projected substantial reductions in sea of this subspecies. (6) Ongoing mortality the ringed seal is not in danger of ice extent and deteriorating snow incidental to fishing activities is also a extinction throughout all or a significant conditions are expected to lead to significant conservation concern. We portion of its range, but is likely to decreased survival of pups and a conclude that the Saimaa subspecies of become so within the foreseeable future. substantial decline in the abundance of the ringed seal is in danger of extinction Therefore, we propose to list the Arctic the Baltic subspecies. We conclude that throughout its range, consistent with its subspecies of the ringed seal as the Baltic subspecies of the ringed seal current listing as endangered under the threatened under the ESA. is not in danger of extinction throughout ESA. Okhotsk subspecies: (1) The best all or a significant portion of its range, Prohibitions and Protective Measures available scientific data suggest a but is likely to become so within the conservative estimate of 676,000 ringed foreseeable future. Therefore, we Section 9 of the ESA prohibits certain seals in the Sea of Okhotsk, apparently propose to list the Baltic subspecies of activities that directly or indirectly reduced from historical numbers. (2) the ringed seal as threatened under the affect endangered species. These Before the end of the current century, ESA. prohibitions apply to all individuals, ice suitable for pupping and nursing is Ladoga subspecies: (1) The organizations and agencies subject to forecasted to be limited to the population size of the ringed seal in U.S. jurisdiction. Section 4(d) of the northernmost regions of the Sea of Lake Ladoga is currently estimated at ESA directs the Secretary of Commerce Okhotsk, and projections suggest that 3,000 to 5,000 seals. (2) Reduced ice and (Secretary) to implement regulations ‘‘to snow cover may already be inadequate snow cover are expected in Lake Ladoga provide for the conservation of for birth lairs. The Sea of Okhotsk is within this century based on regional [threatened] species’’ that may include bounded to the north by land, which projections. As ice and snow conditions extending any or all of the prohibitions

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of section 9 to threatened species. Role of Peer Review we have proposed maintaining the Section 9(a)(1)(g) also prohibits The intent of the peer review policy section 9 protection. Activities that we violations of protective regulations for is to ensure that listings are based on the believe could result in violation of threatened species implemented under best scientific and commercial data section 9 prohibitions against ‘‘take’’ of section 4(d). Based on the status of each available. Prior to a final listing, we will the Arctic ringed seal include: (1) of the ringed seal subspecies and their solicit the expert opinions of three Unauthorized harvest or lethal takes of conservation needs, we conclude that qualified specialists, concurrent with Arctic ringed seals; (2) in-water the ESA section 9 prohibitions are the public comment period. activities that produce high levels of underwater noise, which may harass or necessary and advisable to provide for Independent specialists will be selected their conservation. We are therefore injure Arctic ringed seals; and (3) from the academic and scientific proposing protective regulations discharging or dumping toxic chemicals community, Federal and State agencies, pursuant to section 4(d) for the Arctic, or other pollutants into areas used by and the private sector. Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga subspecies Arctic ringed seals. In December 2004, the Office of of ringed seal to include all of the We believe, based on the best Management and Budget (OMB) issued prohibitions in section 9(a)(1). available information, the following Sections 7(a)(2) and (4) of the ESA a Final Information Quality Bulletin for actions will not result in a violation of require Federal agencies to consult with Peer Review establishing minimum peer section 9: (1) Federally funded or us to ensure that activities they review standards, a transparent process approved projects for which ESA authorize, fund, or conduct are not for public disclosure of peer review section 7 consultation has been likely to jeopardize the continued planning, and opportunities for public completed and mitigated as necessary, existence of a listed species or a species participation. The OMB Bulletin, and that are conducted in accordance proposed for listing, or to adversely implemented under the Information with any terms and conditions we modify critical habitat or proposed Quality Act (Pub. L. 106–554), is provide in an incidental take statement critical habitat. If a Federal action may intended to enhance the quality and accompanying a biological opinion; and affect a listed species or its critical credibility of the Federal Government’s (2) takes of Arctic ringed seals that have habitat, the responsible Federal agency scientific information, and applies to been authorized by NMFS pursuant to must enter into consultation with us. influential or highly influential section 10 of the ESA. These lists are Examples of Federal actions that may scientific information disseminated on not exhaustive. They are intended to affect Arctic ringed seals include or after June 16, 2005. The scientific provide some examples of the types of permits and authorizations relating to information contained in the ringed seal activities that we might or might not coastal development and habitat status review report (Kelly et al., 2010) consider as constituting a take of Arctic alteration, oil and gas development that supports this proposal to list the ringed seals. (including seismic exploration), toxic Arctic, Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga Critical Habitat waste and other pollutant discharges, subspecies of the ringed seal as and cooperative agreements for threatened species under the ESA Section 3 of the ESA (16 U.S.C. subsistence harvest. received independent peer review. 1532(3)) defines critical habitat as ‘‘(i) Sections 10(a)(1)(A) and (B) of the The intent of the peer review policy the specific areas within the ESA provide us with authority to grant is to ensure that listings are based on the geographical area occupied by the exceptions to the ESA’s section 9 ‘‘take’’ best scientific and commercial data species, at the time it is listed * * * on prohibitions. Section 10(a)(1)(A) available. Prior to a final listing, we will which are found those physical or scientific research and enhancement solicit the expert opinions of three biological features (I) essential to the permits may be issued to entities qualified specialists, concurrent with conservation of the species and (II) (Federal and non-Federal) for scientific the public comment period. which may require special management purposes or to enhance the propagation Independent specialists will be selected considerations or protection; and (ii) or survival of a listed species. The type from the academic and scientific specific areas outside the geographical of activities potentially requiring a community, Federal and state agencies, area occupied by the species at the time section 10(a)(1)(A) research/ and the private sector. it is listed * * * upon a determination by the Secretary that such areas are enhancement permit include scientific Identification of Those Activities That essential for the conservation of the research that targets ringed seals. Would Constitute a Violation of Section species.’’ Section 3 of the ESA also Section 10(a)(1)(B) incidental take 9 of the ESA permits are required for non-Federal defines the terms ‘‘conserve,’’ activities that may incidentally take a The intent of this policy is to increase ‘‘conserving,’’ and ‘‘conservation’’ to listed species in the course of otherwise public awareness of the effect of our mean ‘‘to use and the use of all methods lawful activity. ESA listing on proposed and ongoing and procedures which are necessary to activities within the species’ range. We bring any endangered species or Our Policies on Endangered and will identify, to the extent known at the threatened species to the point at which Threatened Wildlife time of the final rule, specific activities the measures provided pursuant to this On July 1, 1994, we and FWS that will be considered likely to result chapter are no longer necessary.’’ published a series of policies regarding in violation of section 9, as well as Section 4(a)(3) of the ESA requires listings under the ESA, including a activities that will not be considered that, to the extent practicable and policy for peer review of scientific data likely to result in violation. Because the determinable, critical habitat be (59 FR 34270) and a policy to identify, Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seal designated concurrently with the listing to the maximum extent possible, those occur outside the jurisdiction of the of a species. Designation of critical activities that would or would not United States, we are presently unaware habitat must be based on the best constitute a violation of section 9 of the of any activities that could result in scientific data available, and must take ESA (59 FR 34272). We must also follow violation of section 9 of the ESA for into consideration the economic, the Office of Management and Budget these subspecies; however, because the national security, and other relevant policy for peer review as described possibility for violations exists (for impacts of specifying any particular area below. example, import into the United States), as critical habitat. Once critical habitat

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is designated, section 7 of the ESA in other areas outside U.S. jurisdiction. Public Hearings requires Federal agencies to ensure that Therefore, we request information only 50 CFR 424.16(c)(3) requires the they do not fund, authorize, or carry out on potential areas of critical habitat Secretary to promptly hold at least one any actions that are likely to destroy or within the United States or waters public hearing if any person requests adversely modify that habitat. This within U.S. jurisdiction. one within 45 days of publication of a requirement is in addition to the section Public Comments Solicited proposed rule to list a species. Such 7 requirement that Federal agencies hearings provide the opportunity for ensure their actions do not jeopardize Relying on the best scientific and interested individuals and parties to the continued existence of the species. commercial information available, we give opinions, exchange information, In determining what areas qualify as exercised our best professional and engage in a constructive dialogue critical habitat, 50 CFR 424.12(b) judgment in developing this proposal to concerning this proposed rule. We requires that NMFS ‘‘consider those list the Arctic, Okhotsk, Baltic, and encourage the public’s involvement in physical or biological features that are Ladoga ringed seals. To ensure that the this matter. If hearings are requested, essential to the conservation of a given final action resulting from this proposal details regarding location(s), date(s), and species including space for individual will be as accurate and effective as and population growth and for normal time(s) will be published in a possible, we are soliciting comments forthcoming Federal Register notice. behavior; food, water, air, light, and suggestions concerning this minerals, or other nutritional or proposed rule from the public, other Classification physiological requirements; cover or concerned governments and agencies, National Environmental Policy Act shelter; sites for breeding, reproduction, Alaska Natives, the scientific and rearing of offspring; and habitats (NEPA) community, industry, and any other that are protected from disturbance or The 1982 amendments to the ESA, in interested parties. Comments are are representative of the historical section 4(b)(1)(A), restrict the encouraged on this proposal as well as geographical and ecological distribution information that may be considered on the status review report (See DATES of a species.’’ The regulations further when assessing species for listing. Based and ADDRESSES). Comments are direct NMFS to ‘‘focus on the principal on this limitation of criteria for a listing particularly sought concerning: biological or physical constituent decision and the opinion in Pacific elements * * * that are essential to the (1) The current population status of Legal Foundation v. Andrus, 657 F. 2d conservation of the species,’’ and specify ringed seals; 829 (6th Cir. 1981), we have concluded that the ‘‘known primary constituent (2) Biological or other information that NEPA does not apply to ESA listing elements shall be listed with the critical regarding the threats to ringed seals; actions. (See NOAA Administrative ’’ habitat description. The regulations (3) Information on the effectiveness of Order 216–6.) identify primary constituent elements ongoing and planned ringed seal (PCEs) as including, but not limited to: Executive Order (E.O.) 12866, conservation efforts by states or local ‘‘Roost sites, nesting grounds, spawning Regulatory Flexibility Act, and entities; sites, feeding sites, seasonal wetland or Paperwork Reduction Act dryland, water quality or quantity, host (4) Activities that could result in a As noted in the Conference Report on species or plant pollinator, geological violation of section 9(a)(1) of the ESA if the 1982 amendments to the ESA, formation, vegetation type, tide, and such prohibitions applied to the Arctic economic impacts cannot be considered specific soil types.’’ ringed seal; when assessing the status of a species. The ESA directs the Secretary of (5) Information related to the Therefore, the economic analyses Commerce to consider the economic designation of critical habitat, including required by the Regulatory Flexibility impact, the national security impacts, identification of those physical or Act are not applicable to the listing and any other relevant impacts from biological features which are essential to process. In addition, this rule is exempt designating critical habitat, and under the conservation of the Arctic ringed from review under E.O. 12866. This rule section 4(b)(2), the Secretary may seal and which may require special does not contain a collection of exclude any area from such designation management considerations or information requirement for the if the benefits of exclusion outweigh protection; and purposes of the Paperwork Reduction those of inclusion, provided that the (6) Economic, national security, and Act. exclusion will not result in the extinction of the species. At this time, other relevant impacts from the E.O. 13132, Federalism the Arctic ringed seal’s critical habitat is designation of critical habitat for the E.O. 13132 requires agencies to take not determinable. We will propose Arctic ringed seal. into account any federalism impacts of critical habitat for the Arctic ringed seal You may submit your comments and regulations under development. It in a separate rulemaking. To assist us materials concerning this proposal by includes specific directives for with that rulemaking, we specifically any one of several methods (see consultation in situations where a request information to help us identify ADDRESSES). We will review all public regulation will preempt state law or the PCEs or ‘‘essential features’’ of the comments and any additional impose substantial direct compliance Arctic ringed seal’s habitat, and to what information regarding the status of these costs on state and local governments extent those features may require subspecies and will complete a final (unless required by statute). Neither of special management considerations or determination within 1 year of those circumstances is applicable to this protection, as well as the economic publication of this proposed rule, as rule. attributes within the range of the Arctic required under the ESA. Final ringed seal that could be impacted by promulgation of the regulation(s) will E.O. 13175, Consultation and critical habitat designation. Although consider the comments and any Coordination With Indian Tribal the range of the Arctic ringed seal is additional information we receive, and Governments circumpolar, 50 CFR 424.12(h) specifies such communications may lead to a The longstanding and distinctive that critical habitat shall not be final regulation that differs from this relationship between the Federal and designated within foreign countries or proposal. tribal governments is defined by

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treaties, statutes, executive orders, corporations on the same basis as Indian Dated: December 3, 2010. judicial decisions, and co-management tribes under E.O. 13175. Eric C. Schwaab, agreements, which differentiate tribal We intend to coordinate with tribal Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, governments from the other entities that governments and native corporations National Marine Fisheries Service. deal with, or are affected by, the Federal which may be affected by the proposed For the reasons set out in the Government. This relationship has action. We will provide them with a preamble, 50 CFR part 223 is proposed given rise to a special Federal trust copy of this proposed rule for review to be amended as follows: responsibility involving the legal and comment and offer the opportunity PART 223—THREATENED MARINE responsibilities and obligations of the to consult on the proposed action. AND ANADROMOUS SPECIES United States toward Indian Tribes and the application of fiduciary standards of References Cited 1. The authority citation for part 223 due care with respect to Indian lands, A complete list of all references cited continues to read as follows: tribal trust resources, and the exercise of in this rulemaking can be found on our Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1531 1543; subpart B, tribal rights. E.O. 13175—Consultation Web site at http:// § 223.201–202 also issued under 16 U.S.C. and Coordination with Indian Tribal alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/ and is 1361 et seq.; 16 U.S.C. 5503(d) for Governments—outlines the § 223.206(d)(9). available upon request from the NMFS responsibilities of the Federal 2. In § 223.102, in the table, amend office in Juneau, Alaska (see Government in matters affecting tribal paragraph (a) by adding paragraphs ADDRESSES). interests. Section 161 of Public Law (a)(4), (a)(5), (a)(6), and (a)(7) to read as 108–199 (188 Stat. 452), as amended by List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 223 follows: section 518 of Public Law 108–447 (118 Endangered and threatened species, § 223.102 Enumeration of threatened Stat. 3267), directs all Federal agencies marine and anadromous species. Exports, Imports, Transportation. to consult with Alaska Native * * * * *

Species 1 Citation(s) for Where listed Citation(s) for listing critical habitat Common name Scientific name determination(s) designation(s)

(a) * * * (4) Ringed seal, Phoca hispida The Arctic subspecies of ringed seal in- [INSERT FR CITATION & DATE NA. Arctic subspecies. hispida. cludes all breeding populations of WHEN PUBLISHED AS A FINAL ringed seals east of 157 degrees RULE]. east longitude, and east of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Pacific Ocean. (5) Ringed seal, Phoca hispida The Baltic subspecies of ringed seal in- [INSERT FR CITATION & DATE NA. Baltic subspecies. botnica. cludes all breeding populations of WHEN PUBLISHED AS A FINAL ringed seals within the Baltic Sea. RULE]. (6) Ringed seal, Phoca hispida The Ladoga subspecies of ringed seal [INSERT FR CITATION & DATE NA. Ladoga sub- ladogensis. includes all breeding populations of WHEN PUBLISHED AS A FINAL species. ringed seals within Lake Ladoga. RULE]. (7) Ringed seal, Phoca hispida The Okhotsk subspecies of ringed seal [INSERT FR CITATION & DATE NA. Okhotsk sub- ochotensis. includes all breeding populations of WHEN PUBLISHED AS A FINAL species. ringed seals west of 157 degrees RULE]. east longitude, or west of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Pacific Ocean.

******* 1 Species includes taxonomic species, subspecies, distinct population segments (DPSs) (for a policy statement, see 61 FR4722, February 7, 1996), and evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) (for a policy statement, see 56 FR 58612, November 20, 1991).

* * * * * shall apply to the Baltic subspecies of § 223.215 Okhotsk subspecies of ringed 3. In Subpart B of part 223, add ringed seal listed in § 223.102(a)(5). seal. § 223.212 to read as follows: 5. In Subpart B of part 223, add The prohibitions of section 9(a)(1)(A) § 223.212 Arctic subspecies of ringed seal. § 223.214 to read as follows: through 9(a)(1)(G) of the ESA (16 U.S.C. The prohibitions of section 9(a)(1)(A) 1538) relating to endangered species § 223.214 Ladoga subspecies of ringed shall apply to the Okhotsk subspecies of through 9(a)(1)(G) of the ESA (16 U.S.C. seal. 1538) relating to endangered species ringed seal listed in § 223.102(a)(7). shall apply to the Arctic subspecies of The prohibitions of section 9(a)(1)(A) [FR Doc. 2010–30934 Filed 12–9–10; 8:45 am] ringed seal listed in § 223.102(a)(4). through 9(a)(1)(G) of the ESA (16 U.S.C. BILLING CODE 3510–22–P 4. In Subpart B of part 223, add 1538) relating to endangered species § 223.213 to read as follows: shall apply to the Ladoga subspecies of ringed seal listed in § 223.102(a)(6). § 223.213 Baltic subspecies of ringed seal. 6. In Subpart B of part 223, add The prohibitions of section 9(a)(1)(A) § 223.215 to read as follows: through 9(a)(1)(G) of the ESA (16 U.S.C. 1538) relating to endangered species

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