Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

• 1,623 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week • This is a more than 50% increase in cases compared to the previous week • Cases will continue to accelerate rapidly unless we urgently adhere to national and local guidance

Data up to 8 November 2020

1 National Restrictions

Northamptonshire residents are now following new National guidance.

Key guidance includes: •Only leave home for food, medical reasons, exercise, education or work (if you cannot work from home) •You MUST work from home if you can •Avoid travel unless essential •Schools and essential shops to remain open •Remember: Wash hands, cover face, make space

For a full list of what you can and cannot do, please visit: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from- 5-november For local guidance and FAQs, visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-advice-and-faqs.aspx

2 Public Health Measures • Public Health Northamptonshire, Environmental Health departments within District and Borough Councils, Northamptonshire County Council and Northants Police have, and will, use enforcement powers where there is non-compliance in relation to COVID-19 Regulations. • The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020 came into force on the 5 November 2020 and amongst a number of new provisions impose restrictions on a variety of businesses within our local communities. • There are a number of well established forums within Northamptonshire to discuss our approach and consider the implications of these new Regulations. • A number of protocols are being developed and shared across all relevant enforcing authorities so that we can provide a consistent approach across this County. • We will continue to engage, explain and encourage within our community to ensure the new provisions are implemented to support public health with the aim of reducing the transmission rate of COVID-19. • Notwithstanding this approach, there are a number of existing provisions including wearing face coverings in certain settings; gatherings and a failure to self-isolate when required to do so, which will result in the use of proportionate enforcement powers aimed at protecting public health.

3 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 10,858 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 1,623 were identified in the last week, 2 to 8 November 2020.

This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 17th August 2020. There has been an overall increasing trend over the last two months with cases rising significantly since the end of September. There were more than twice as many cases in the week to 8 November compared to the first week of October. Average daily case figures are similar to the weekly totals seen during September and cases are continuing to rise week on week, rising sharply in the last week, mirroring the regional picture. The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

4 Recent Cases by Age and Gender

This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band.

Cases are also increasing in the over 60s which is of particular concern as these age groups tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease. Overall we are continuing to see more cases identified in women than men in the last 28 days. The age groups with the most positive tests in males were 20 to 29 year olds and 50 to 59 year olds, and in females they were 40 to 49 year olds and 30 to 39 year olds. In recent weeks the 10 to 19 age group has consistently had the highest numbers of cases by a notable margin but case numbers are now highest amongst the working age adult age groups.

5 Total Cases by District and Borough

Cases in week This table shows the total number of people who Total cases to Change from Area 2 to 8 Nov have tested positive for COVID-19 up to 8 8 Nov 2020 previous week 2020 November 2020 in each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs. Northamptonshire 10,858 1,623  All districts and boroughs have seen an increase in  Corby 921 103 cases compared to the previous week. Daventry 951 178  Northamptonshire’s total cases are more than 8 East Northamptonshire 1282 229  times higher than the average of the weekly totals seen between 31 August and 27 September. Kettering 1418 179  Northampton 4,167 610  Please note that caution must be applied when viewing week on week changes. To see the overall South Northamptonshire 1045 208  changes in areas in context please see slides 10 - Wellingborough 1074 116  12.

6 Rates of Cases by District and Borough

The data in this table shows us what the total and Rate per Compared to Compared to most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers Cumulative rate 100,000 30 county rate England rate 30 Area per 100,000 to for our districts and boroughs would look like if each Oct to 5 Nov 30 Oct to 5 Nov Oct to 5 Nov 5 Nov 2020 area had the exact same population size (100,000). 2020 2020 2020 This helps us to compare geographic areas with Northamptonshire 1,358 185.7 - Sig lower different sized populations more accurately. Corby 1,202 102.5 Sig lower Sig lower With the exception of East Northamptonshire and Daventry 1,004 155.9 Similar Sig lower Northampton’s rates which are similar to England’s, East Northamptonshire 1,264 214.8 Similar Similar district and borough infection rates per 100,000 Kettering 1,317 127.7 Sig lower Sig lower population for the most recent week are significantly lower than the national average. Northampton 1,758 239.1 Sig higher Similar However the rates for all districts and boroughs are South Northamptonshire 1,020 199.0 Similar Sig lower above 100 cases per 100,000 population as a Wellingborough 1,319 166.9 Similar Sig lower weekly average.

Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk Overall, Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the most recent week is significantly lower than the *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’ is a statistical term which simply means that England average, but this is due to a significant the research is valid. increase in the England rate and therefore must be viewed in this context.

7 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases

This graph includes all testing data. It shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days is below the England average, however this is largely due to a recent increase in the national average and therefore must be viewed in this context.

All districts and boroughs have weekly total rates below the England average but have seen rapid increases since the end of September and Northampton in particular may exceed the national average if current trends continue.

Northampton currently has the highest weekly rate of cases in the county, followed by East Northamptonshire. South Northamptonshire has seen a notable increase in case rates over the last week.

* These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

8 Education Status

Outbreaks 01/11/2020 These tables show a summary of school Active outbreaks in schools/colleges 19 status and attendance in Total cases associated with active outbreaks in Northamptonshire and numbers of 177 schools/colleges (outbreak start to date) reported cases in schools and at the University of Northampton. University of Northampton reported cases in the last 23 week The most recent attendance rates are lower than the baseline figures for Attendance 03/11/2020 Autumn term 2019.

% schools open – average of the previous week 100% A further breakdown of outbreaks and exposures in education settings by % pupils attending – average of the previous week 91% district can be found on slide 13.

Baseline Autumn term attendance data figure for 94.10% same period in 2019

9 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with the highest case numbers in the last 28 days help us to prioritise and focus our support locally.

10 Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000 population

These graphics show what positive COVID-19 case numbers over the last 28 days would look like if each local community had the exact same size population (100,000).

The map illustrates the 28-day infection rate per 100,000 population across the whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

11 Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly per 100,000 population

If each community had the exact 1 Middleton Cheney & Chipping Warden (SN) same size population (100,000) in 2 Blackthorn & Lings (Nton) Northamptonshire, this graphic 3 Braunston & Crick (Dav) shows how COVID-19 case 4 Kingsthorpe (Nton) numbers in the last 14 days would have changed in each 5 Little Billing (Nton) community compared to the 6 Moulton (Nton) previous 14 days. 7 Brackley South (SN) 8 Ringstead, Woodford & Stanwick (EN) The 15 areas with the greatest 9 Daventry South & Southbrook (Dav) increases in case rates are listed 10 Rushden South (EN) next to the map. 11 Rushden West & North (EN) Areas with the greatest increases 12 New Duston West (Nton) in rates of infection show us 13 Boughton (Nton) where we need to prioritise and 14 Daventry North (Dav) focus our support locally. 15 St David's (Nton)

12 Summary of Outbreaks and Exposures 9/11/2020

In the last 28 days Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough County total Case total Outbreaks 2 10 9 11 24 5 4 65 430 Care home/service 2 5 2 2 3 14 86 Outbreak Childcare (two or more cases linked Workplace 5 1 2 8 1 1 18 111 by place and time to that setting) Education 1 2 3 9 1 3 19 177 Hospital/hospice 1 7 5 13 52 Other 1 1 4 In the last 7 days Clusters 1 1 2 2 6 18 Cluster Care home/service 1 1 2 (two or more cases Childcare associated with that Workplace 1 1 2 setting but not “connected by time and Education 1 1 2 4 14 place” to that setting) Hospital/hospice Other In the last 7 days Exposures 7 3 5 10 17 2 2 46 64 Exposure Care home/service 3 4 6 7 1 1 22 27 (single case where there Childcare 1 1 1 has been (or potentially Workplace 1 1 2 2 been) exposure to Education 4 2 1 3 8 1 1 20 33 contacts in that setting) Hospital/hospice Other 1 1 1

Total active situations 117 512 • Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days. • Although outbreaks have increased this week and are related to a particular setting - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to community household transmission. • University cases are included in the Education category. 13 Winter Flu - Protecting the Immune System Winter Flu immunisation uptake up to to end of week 44 (1 Nov 2020)

The total number of people eligible for Winter Flu immunisation in Northamptonshire is 221,485 under the universal programme.

Number of further Total Number eligible Number of immunisations Target Group immunisations required to Target % people given meet target Over 65 114,615 75,495 10,466 75% Under 65 at risk * 84,037 25,466 37,562 75% Pregnant Women 5,015 1,057 2,704 75% * Please note that adult target of 75% has been applied, but it also includes ‘at risk children’ not covered by school vaccination programme (4-11 years).

The table below shows that the current progress for flu uptake has improved in all eligible categories compared to the same period in 2019/20.

Total Combined At Risk STP Year 65 and over Population 6months to All Pregnant Women All Aged 2- 3 under 65 years Northamptonshire STP 2020/21 65.9% 30.3% 21.1% 34.0% Northamptonshire STP 2019/20 56.3% 21.3% 21.0% 1.8% Northamptonshire STP Change +9.6% +9.0% +0.1% +32.2%

14 We Are All In This Together

• To find out more information about local testing sites visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-testing-in-northamptonshire.aspx. • Tests can be booked online at nhs.uk/coronavirus or by calling 119. Home testing kits can also be ordered subject to availability. • It is vital that when you leave the house to be tested you must go straight to the testing centre and return home immediately to self- isolate until you get your results. • Advice on how to access a COVID-19 test can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting- tested.

15 Partners Working on the COVID-19 Response PHE – Public Health England An executive agency of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) which is the expert national public health agency which fulfils the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care’s statutory duty to protect health and address inequalities, and executes his power to promote the health and wellbeing of the nation. We work with the Midlands PHE Office.

Local Public Health Teams Part of Local Authorities (Upper tier and unitary) since 2013, led by Directors of Public Health with a number of specific statutory responsibilities, including health protection and local control of infectious diseases including immunisation and related functions.

Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) The JBC aims to provide evidence-based, independent analysis, assessment and advice to inform local and national decision-making in response to COVID-19 outbreaks. This includes: • helping to inform action on testing, contact tracing and local outbreak management in England • informing an assessment of the risks to UK public health from inbound international travel • advising on the COVID-19 alert level • acting as the main point of liaison between Local Authorities and the Chief Medical Officer and Secretary of State.

Environmental Health Officers Work within District and Borough Local Authorities and are responsible for monitoring and enforcing health and hygiene legislation. They are working closely with Public Health Northamptonshire on COVID-19 workplace outbreaks, with the COVID-19 Schools Cell and Northamptonshire County Council’s Test and Trace service.

16 Government Help, Guidance and Fines

• Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

• COVID-19 guidance around the “Rule of Six” includes rules around social distancing, seeing friends and family, going to venues and taking part in activities. Guidance for the rule of six can be found here. Failure to comply may result in a fine.

• Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation, will be fined.

• Failure to engage and follow national guidance will lead to further restrictions being imposed locally. Such restrictions could include limitations on mixing with others who are outside of your household, in homes and gardens, in pubs and restaurants and further restrictions on the opening hours of bars and restaurants.