ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING NEWSLETTER 1 DEC. 2014

This week's edition includes: If you need older URLs contact George at [email protected]. Please Note: This newsletter contains articles that offer differing points of view regarding , energy and other environmental issues. Any opinions expressed in this publication are the responses of the editor alone and do not represent the positions of the Environmental Engineering Division or the ASME. George Holliday

This week's edition includes:

ENVIRONMENT: A. ALL 50 STATES HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES Meteorologist Tim Buckley of WFMY-TV writes on Facebook: All 50 states have low temperatures BELOW freezing tonight. (Monday night) Yes, even Hawaii. Tall mountain peaks there regularly get below freezing, and even get snow. This typically happens a few times during winter, but is very rare this early in the season. Pretty neat! The low… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/18/all-50-states-have-below-freezing-temperatures/

B. IF 97% OF SCIENTISTS SAY GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL, 100% SAY IT HAS NEARLY STOPPED John Cook’s methodology proves that there is a “pause consensus”. Guest essay by Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute. The central premise of “global warming” is that human greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to a rise in the earth’s average surface temperature, and that as emissions… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/18/if-97-of-scientists-say-global-warming-is-real-100-say-it- has-nearly-stopped/

C. / MODELING Who needs an Orbiting Carbon Observatory to track it when you can model Carbon Dioxide movement? Video follows. I had at first thought that this press release from NASA Goddard was telling me that they had taken the data from their new Orbiting Carbon Observatory and put it into a model that used wind data so that distribution and mixing could be tracked. Seems sensible, right? But no, they’ve created a… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/18/who-needs-an-orbiting-carbon-observatory-when-you- can-model-of-carbon-dioxide/ D. LARGEST SOLAR PROJECT FAILS TO MEET PROMISED ELECTRICITY GENERATION- REQUESTS GOVERNMENT GRANT Below is a link covering the problem that the largest solar plant is generating half the promised energy. Interestingly the green energy plant has to fire boilers with fossil fuels (natural gas) to make up for the shortage of solar electricity production. The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System, which is owned by Google, NRG Energy and BrightSource Energy, uses nearly 175,000 mirrors, called heliostats, and sprawls 3,500 acres in California. AP article conveniently fails to mention the request for a government bailout to pay the loans. They are requesting a $539 million dollar grant to pay the government loan. http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/09/google‐owned‐solar‐company‐requests‐540‐million‐bailout‐to‐help‐ pay‐1‐6‐billion‐loan/ Why should the taxpayers bail out Google et. al.

Here is the AP article. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WORLDS_LARGEST_SOLAR_PLANT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HO ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014‐11‐17‐14‐33‐47 Don Shaw

E. AXEL TIMMERMANN AND KEVIN TRENBERTH HIGHLIGHT THE IMPORTANCE OF NATURAL VARIABILITY IN GLOBAL WARMING… Guest Post by Bob Tisdale …and their recent interviews provided fodder for a blog post that should be educational for many people. There were numerous oddities in a recent interview with Axel Timmerman and Kevin Trenberth. Those are the primary topics of this post. Let’s see what we can learn. Then, looking at the subsurface temperature… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/19/axel-timmermann-and-kevin-trenberth-highlight-the- importance-of-natural-variability-in-global-warming/

SAFETY: A. 1 DEAD, 3 INJURED IN GULF DRILLING PLATFORM EXPLOSION By Jonathan Bullington, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune on November 20, 2014 at 8:56 PM, updated November 21, 2014 at 1:45 AM One person is dead and three others injured following an explosion on a drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. The explosion on Echo Platform, located about 12 miles off the coast of Louisiana, was reported shortly before 3 p.m., according to a BSEE release. The three injured are being treated at "an onshore medical facility," the release states. The platform, operated by Houston-based Fieldwood Energy, was not in production at the time, the release states. The explosion damaged the platform, the release states, but resulted in no pollution to the surrounding area. The BSEE is investigating the cause of the explosion. Fieldwood issued a statement Thursday night saying, in part, that a contractor employee was killed and another contractor employee "seriously injured." "We have accounted for all other personnel who were working at the facility," the statement reads. "This was an isolated incident that has been fully contained. The facility was not damaged and there was no pollution that resulted from the incident." The Fieldwood statement says the company is "working hand-in-hand with emergency response personnel and will provide further updates once we learn additional information. In the interim, our thoughts and prayers are with the families of the deceased and injured contractor employees." Thursday's explosion comes about two months after a contractor was killed and two others hurt during maintenance work in September on a Chevron natural gas pipeline, also off the Louisiana coast. The cause remains under investigation. The Associated Press contributed to this report. http://www.nola.com/traffic/index.ssf/2014/11/1_dead_3_injured_following_gul.html Rodger Zygmunt

COMMENTS: A. THE WEEK THAT WAS: 2014-11-22 (NOV. 22, 2014) (By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Science Adviser: Recently, the once obscure position of official science adviser has garnered the attention in the popular press. John Holdren, President Obama’s chief science adviser, has been active in the US National Climate Assessment, which is little more than the alarmist version of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers, with the global climate models adjusted for the United States. The certainty of the science expressed in the reports is not borne out by observations from nature; the climate models on which the Assessment is based have been shown to greatly overestimate 21st century temperature trends. In a January 8, 2014 video, Holdren attributed the extreme cold the US was experiencing at the time to global warming causing changes to the circumpolar vortex, thereby bringing Arctic cold to the US. For this video, he was soundly criticized. Large variations (meanders) in the circumpolar vortex, known as atmospheric Rossby waves, were first identified by Carl-Gustaf Arvid Rossby in 1939 –long before the fear of global warming and major human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the purported cause of global warming. The circumpolar vortex has probably existed since the earth rotated on its axis and had an atmosphere. The November 15 TWTW linked to reports stating that the European Commission’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Anne Glover, was forced out and her position abolished apparently in response to demands by Greenpeace. Glover, a professor of molecular biology, supported genetically modified crops. Apparently, the radical green organizations prefer corn (maize) that has not been genetically modified and requires extensive processing to be consumed by humans. Given this latest development, it is refreshing to read the first Annual Report of the [UK] Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Sir Mark Walport: Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. The report recognizes innovation is not a linear process that starts in the laboratory and ends up in the clinic, the environment or the marketplace. Innovation is essential for economic growth, health, wellbeing, security and resilience. It describes how many of the greatest periods of economic growth in the past have been driven by innovation. The need to innovate is a fundamental requirement for social and economic progress. Innovative economies are more competitive, respond better to change, see higher returns on investment and create increased living standards. Innovative businesses are more productive and grow faster than businesses that fail to innovate. And it is not only businesses that must innovate: governments and social organizations need to innovate, to adapt, respond to and shape the evolution of society. Governments have an essential role in shaping the legal frameworks, institutions and policies that in turn shape the risks and incentives faced by others. It is this balance of risks and incentives that determine what choices innovators, entrepreneurs, investors, inventors, bureaucrats and citizens will make. As importantly, the report recognizes innovation is not an unalloyed good —almost all innovations can cause both benefit and harm. Because of this, discussion of innovation has become almost inseparable from discussion of risk. Paradoxically, this discussion has become more prominent precisely because the innovations of previous generations have made our lives much safer and free of risk. People living in advanced economies have become more risk adverse compared to previous generations. A common denominator of innovation in every generation is that it solves problems, creates wealth and new employment, while at the same time potentially disrupting the status quo of existing wealth and employment, and creating new problems and challenges. What are needed are systems of regulations that are based on rigorous evidence and well- informed public debate to balance the need for innovation with the possible harms from it. One of the biggest challenges to accomplishing such systems is the need to distinguish between hazard, exposure, risk and vulnerability. These may vary according to region and culture, making it difficult to adopt a single plan for Western Europe –or for the world. It is interesting to speculate how the environmental organizations will react to this report. Wind and solar, the methods of electricity generation endorsed by the greens, are failing to supply modern civilization with reliable power. Innovation in electricity storage is crucial to replacing fossil fuels (as well as nuclear and hydro) as the preferred source of electricity generation throughout the world. Will the greens condemn this report and oppose necessary innovation? See links under Seeking a Common Ground, Questioning European Green, and, for the Holdren video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eDTzV6a9F4&feature=youtu.be

**************** Lame-Duck: In the US, congressional elections take place every two years. Sessions of Congress are called a lame-duck if the session occurs after a major election choosing the successor Congress and before the new Congress is convened. From now until January 3, 2015, any sessions of Congress will be lame-duck sessions. Although important work remains to be done by the current Congress, such as budget authorizations, such sessions often include efforts by members who were not re-elected to advance favored interests –such as renewal of the production tax credit, a major subsidy for the US wind industry. There are a number of such efforts underway. See links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes and Subsidies and Mandates Forever. **************** Keystone XL: A major portion of the Keystone pipeline that is within the US has been built. However, the portion of the extended pipeline bringing oil from the tar sands of south-central Canada to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico has been blocked by officials in Washington for six years. [There is now a local legal issue regarding the approval of the pipeline by officials in Nebraska.] This week the Senate took up the Keystone issue. It required a major election defeat of the Democratic Party and the possible defeat in a runoff featuring Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu from Louisiana, an oil and natural gas state, before Democratic Senator Harry Reid would permit a vote on the issue. The proposal did not garner sufficient Democratic votes to overcome a Democratic filibuster on the issue, 60 votes required. The sacrifice of Ms. Landrieu is an example of the extent to which the greens have seized control of the Democratic Party. After January 3, the new, Republican-controlled, US Senate may re-visit the issue, but the Democratic Party may no longer have the vote of Ms. Landrieu. See Article # 5 and links under Washington’s Control of Energy. **************** Antiquated Economics: Reading statements by President Obama on the Keystone issue are reminiscent of some economic writings of the 18th and 19th century praising Mercantilism and urging that economic activity should be kept within the boundaries of a country or geographic region. Apparently, the President does not recognize that trade can benefit societies in general, or that a major issue in the American Revolution and in its founding documents came from Britain’s attempts to control trade. Will the next step be a return of the British Corn laws, by placing heavy import duties on foodstuffs, thereby protecting landed interests at the expense of the general population? See Article # 4. **************** Learning from Failure: The high-tech company, Google, spent a great amount of money on internal research and development (R&D) to develop alternatives to fossil fuels, chiefly to develop renewable energy sources for the generation of electricity at costs lower than coal-fired power plants. After 4 years, following an internal review, it was decided that the effort was not on track to meet its target and the company shut down its initiative. To their credit, two of the engineers published their experiences and observations including that “our society needs to fund scientists and engineers to propose and test new ideas, fail quickly, and share what they learn. Today, the energy innovation cycle is measured in decades, in large part because so little money is spent on critical types of R&D.” In the view of TWTW, unfortunately, Government-funded projects do not fail until it is too late. All too often the technology is deployed, before it is properly developed. Additional note: in the view of TWTW, the justification for the research was flawed. Google used an analysis from James Hansen, a global warming alarmist. Recent research indicates that the impact of carbon dioxide on global temperatures is far less than calculated by laboratory experiments. See link under Seeking a Common Ground. **************** Heavy Snows: The Great Lakes region of the northern mid-west suffered from heavy snows over the past week. As with John Holdren last year, immediately, articles appeared claiming that global warming is driving crazy winters. Roy Spencer quickly dispensed with this notion. Spencer points out that the Great Lakes are unusually cold this year, and that the storms were driven by a very cold air blast from Siberia. Where is the warming? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. **************** Hottest Month (Year?) Since? It is November, and we are getting predictions as to how hot 2014 will be as compared with prior years. Many historic records used for such rankings, including those used by government agencies, are actually several sets of time-series data spliced together, imperfectly, using models that are not thoroughly tested. Statistician Matt Briggs has words of caution regarding such time-series data: 1) Never homogenize; 2) Carry all uncertainty forward; 3) Look at the data; 4) Define your question; 5) Only the data are the data; 6) The model is not the data; and 7) Don’t use statistics unless you have to (most statistical models stink and they are never checked on new data, the only true test). See links under Seeking a Common Ground and Measurement Issues. **************** Comments to EPA: The deadline for the public to comment on the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants is December 1. The regulations are the main feature of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan, which seeks to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants to 30% below the emission level in 2005, by the year 2030. The impact of these regulations on temperatures is probably so small, it is not measurable. See comments by under Questioning the Orthodoxy. **************** Number of the Week: 1.42 times area of the USA (all territory). In discussing how gullible people are when confronted by deceptive use of physical features, Tim Ball points out that few people have any idea of the physical world, such as the size and shape of the Arctic Ocean. The Ocean is about 1.42 times the area of the USA [there is some disagreement among sources on the exact area of each.] Ignorance of geography is all too common in the popular press, even though maps are readily searched on the internet. For an interesting discussion on Climate Perception, Projection and Propaganda please see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy. ################################################### http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2014/TWTW%2011-22-14.pdf

B. GWPF CALLS FOR HALT TO UK LOW CARBON INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE FUNDING PRESS RELEASE: Embargoed until 19 November 2014 – 00:01am The Global Warming Policy Forum is today calling for the UK’s new international climate finance contribution to go towards helping developing countries with adaptation measures to increase their resilience, rather than the funds being allocated to low carbon development. It has been reported that David Cameron… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/18/gwpf-calls-for-halt-to-uk-low-carbon-international- climate-funding/

C. USING COAL, OIL AND GAS, THE MORAL CHOICE Review: Alex Epstein, The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, Penguin Publishing, November 2014; 248 pages; ISBN-10: 1591847443, ISBN-13: 978-1591847441, $20.89 most compelling arguments for the moral value of fossil fuels and the need to increase their use I have ever read. Epstein is an ethical humanist; for him, the well-being of human life is the standard of value public policy should maximize. This ethical theory goes back to the ancient Greeks and went virtually unchallenged as a basis for judging right and wrong throughout human history, at least until recently. Unfortunately, many prominent environmental writers have rejected humanism, instead embracing a biocentric philosophy that views human changes to the environment as morally wrong and unnatural. For those biocentrists, minimizing human impacts on the environment is the primary moral goal. As such, biocentrism is a prescription for human poverty, disease, starvation, and premature death - in other words, an endorsement of the world as experienced by all but the wealthiest individuals for the vast majority of human history. Epstein points out the development and use of fossil fuels have benefitted the poor far more than the rich, making available to the person of average means, food, goods, and services which even the rulers of old could hardly dream of. Chapter by chapter, through clear and concise analysis, Epstein demonstrates why fossil fuels are the greatest energy technology of all time; why renewable energy sources like wind and solar power are in no position to replace them; why concerns about global warming are overstated and largely misplaced; how fossil fuel use actually improves environmental quality; and why, with more than 1.3 billion people in the world today without access to electricity and the labor and life-saving bounty it makes available, it would be immoral to artificially restrict growth in the use of fossil fuels to prevent climate change. Assuming human welfare is one’s primary moral standard, a number of important takeaways from this book arise. I’ll list three:  One should look at the big picture when determining the value of using fossil fuels - not just the costs or potential harms to humans. If one has an open mind, it is apparent fossil fuels provide important benefits to humankind, unmatched by any other fuel source at current prices with current technology. The benefits of fossil fuels far outweigh the harmful by-products resulting from their use, even if one believes they contribute to global warming.  “Climate is no longer a major cause of deaths, thanks in large part to fossil fuels. … Not only are we ignoring the big picture by making the fight against climate danger the fixation of our culture, we are ‘fighting’ climate change by opposing the weapon that has made it dozens of times less dangerous. The popular climate discussion has the issue backwards. It looks at man as a destructive force for climate livability, one who makes the climate dangerous because we use fossil fuels. In fact, the truth is the exact opposite; we don’t take a safe climate and make it dangerous; we take a dangerous climate and make it safe. High-energy civilization, not climate, is the driver of climate livability.”  Even if human-caused CO2 emissions do pose a significant threat of dangerous climate change, the way to deal with climate danger is to develop technologies that allow humans to adapt to, mitigate, or prevent climate harms. Restricting or ending fossil fuel use is a recipe for disaster. It would set human civilization back centuries - a true death knell for present and future generations. The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels makes this point as well or better than any other book I recall reading. The book is easily readable by anyone who has passed high school freshman English, and I encourage all those interested in learning about the threats of global warming and the relative benefits and harms of fossil fuel use to read it with an open mind. It will give you much to think about. : H. Sterling Burnett [[email protected]]

D. OCEAN OSCILLATIONS AND CLIMATE CYCLES There is considerable evidence the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) profoundly influence North American climate and are partly responsible for global warming. For example, since the late 1970s, the PDO, AMO, and El Nino/La Nina activity statistically account for most of the recent warming of global average sea surface temperatures. Since natural cycles are responsible for recent global warming, so there is no reason to limit fossil fuel use, currently the foundation for human prosperity. Roy Spencer

E. INDIA MOVES AHEAD WITH COAL DESPITE CLIMATE CLAIMS In the face of criticism from environmentalists, India has announced plans to double its production of coal in the next five years to meet the country’s soaring energy demand. Upon making the announcement, Piyush Goyal, minister of state with independent charge for power, coal, new and renewable energy described coal as “an essential input for power.” How Goyal’s plans will mesh with those of Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, is unclear. Having promised the 400 million Indians who lack electricity they will soon have it, Modi shares Goyal’s vision of bringing electricity to the masses. However, he promised to achieve widespread electrification with solar power and has doubled an existing levy on coal to fund clean energy. Modi will learn, to his chagrin I suspect, he can’t meet his promise using solar power alone - he will need to use the country’s abundant coal. SOURCE: Climate News Network

F. U.S.-CHINA CLIMATE DEAL, POLITICS NOT COMMITMENT Despite headlines around the world proclaiming a significant breakthrough, the recent announcement by President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping that the two countries have agreed to substantially cut their emissions is, in reality, much ado about nothing. Neither leader actually committed to any cuts at all; rather they stated they “intended” to reduce emissions. President Obama cannot hit his intended target through executive actions and regulations alone, and Congress’ reaction to Obama’s announcement was sharply negative, suggesting it is almost certain no legislation will pass cutting greenhouse gas emissions. For China’s part, its president did not say the country would cut emissions, but instead he stated emissions were expected to peak around 2030. On an emission per unit of output basis, this is probably accurate without any agreement as China adopts new, cleaner technology and industrial growth slows. China’s press has hinted the world should not expect any dramatic cuts. SOURCES: Reuters; BBC; Washington Post

G. MORE METHANE EMISSIONS PROPOSED BY EPA The US Environmental Protection Agency issued a final regulation aimed at improving the clarity and consistency of oil and gas data submitted to its greenhouse-gas reporting program (GHGRP). It also proposed a rule that would add emissions reporting for sources that the program does not cover currently to its Subpart W. The final rule, which EPA proposed on Mar. 10, was designed to make corrections to and clarify existing regulatory requirements, the agency said Nov. 13. It will become effective on Jan. 1, 2015. An EPA spokeswoman said the proposed rule reflects the oil and gas industry’s rapid growth and changes. It would require new data to be reported for onshore gathering and boosting activities, onshore gas transmission pipelines, and completions and workovers of oil wells which are hydraulically fractured, she said on Nov. 16 in response to an OGJ inquiry. “By increasing access to GHGRP’s oil and gas systems data, we can increase the understanding of sources in the industry for which the public previously had little information,” the spokeswoman said. “These revisions will further enhance the quality of the data and allow the GHGRP to continue to serve as an important tool for the agency and the public to understand emissions from this sector.” Comments will be accepted for 60 days following the proposal’s publication in the Federal Register. EPA anticipates that a final version would take effect on Jan. 1, 2016. Officials from several oil and gas trade associations said the industry has made progress already to curb methane emissions. “We continue to see concern raised about it,” America’s Natural Gas Alliance Pres. Martin J. Durbin said on Nov. 17. “There’s some good news about methane not only on the production side, but across the entire system. Emissions are being reduced not just in production, but in transmission, storage, and distribution. There are enormous improvements across the industry.” Continued improvement More can be done, Durbin said during a teleconference with reporters. “This is an area where we’re going to see continued improvement,” he predicted. “The reductions which have taken place so far occurred without regulations. We’re seeing additional opportunities with the use of recompletions and elsewhere to do more. It’s in the interest of industry and everyone else to work with the [Obama] administration to move forward. A one-size-fits-all regulation would not do the job.” EPA’s data show that methane emissions account for only 9% of the total GHGs the US produces, “and natural gas only accounts for a quarter of that,” added ANGA Chief Economist Erica Bowman, who also participated in the teleconference. In a Nov. 12 presentation to the Environmental Law Institute, American Petroleum Institute Regulatory and Scientific Affairs Director Howard J. Feldman noted that EPA’s GHG inventory found that US methane emissions from gas systems fell 17% from 1990 to 2012. Gas production as measured by the US Energy Information Administration grew 37% domestically during the same period. Methane emissions requirements should not be changed now so existing rules can be implemented fully and measurements can catch up with the standards, Feldman said. “If any changes are made, they need to ensure they do not compromise safety, and can be achieved cost- effectively with adequate lead times,” he said. Interstate Natural Gas Association of America Pres. Donald F. Santa said the proposed additions to EPA’s Subpart W reporting program could help EPA and all parties get a better idea of both the volume of methane being released in the atmosphere and the sources of those releases, depending on the method the agency uses to collect the information. Pipeline blowdowns Santa said that pipeline blowdowns, which EPA proposes having operators measure as part of its reporting requirements, are a critical and necessary pipeline construction and maintenance component. “This is one of the reasons why widespread replacement of pipeline will not significantly reduce releases from gas transmission pipelines, i.e., the pipe itself is not the source of material releases and its replacement may in fact result in greater releases,” Santa said. “As a result, we believe it’s important for EPA to work with the federal pipeline safety regulator [the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration] to reduce the number of occasions where blowdowns will be required in order to comply with pipeline inspection requirements,” he said. “In other words, can we find ways to accomplish the same pipeline safety goals without blowing down the pipeline?” INGAA and its members are involved in research efforts to develop pipeline integrity management practices and new in-line inspection tools that reduce the number and volume of blowdowns, including those in connection with testing the material strength of pipelines, and therefore reduce the amount of methane emissions, Santa said. He said that interstate gas pipelines have made great strides already in reducing methane release. “The gas transmission industry reduced the number of leaks along the pipe by 94%, preventing 122 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions over the past three decades, as a result of pipeline integrity and maintenance programs and continued investment in new pipeline facilities,” Santa said. Further steps INGAA members are committed to go further by establishing guidelines to reduce pipeline equipment emissions, “with a particular focus on the types of equipment with the largest emissions profile,” Santa said. Lee O. Fuller, the Independent Petroleum Association of America’s vice-president of government relations, said EPA’s proposal to expand Subpart W reporting actually is a response to a Mar. 19, 2013, petition by the Clean Air Task Force, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Sierra Club. The efforts may be part of “swirling issues related to methane regulation” generated by US President Barack Obama’s Climate Effort plan, but are by no means the only significant actions the oil and gas industry anticipates, he told OGJ via e-mail. Actions generated from five “white papers” EPA published and the US Bureau of Land Management’s venting and flaring initiative also could be significant, Fuller said. (The white papers focused on fraced oil wells, liquids unloading, leaks upstream of the distribution system, pneumatic devices, and compressors, API’s Feldman indicated during his Nov. 13 ELI presentation.) “These actions will not likely be announced until December, probably after EPA announces its proposed ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) on Dec. 1,” Fuller said. “The ozone NAAQS can also bear on hydrocarbon regulations that reduce methane.” Contact Nick Snow at [email protected]. Don Shaw

H. NEWSPAPERS MISLEAD PUBLIC ABOUT POLAR BEAR NUMBERS Press release from the GWPF: “The main story of new study is the remarkable recovery of Arctic polar bear population” Earlier this week, newspaper ran a headline claiming that the ‘polar bear population in frozen sea north of Alaska falls 40% in 10 years’ – a claim repeated today by the AFP news… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/19/newspapers-mislead-public-about-polar-bear-numbers/ Don Shaw

I. ONE OF THE GREATEST CONCERNS OF TODAY. http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa47.ht Don Shaw J. QUICKY MID-NOVEMBER 2014 ENSO UPDATE Guest Post by Bob Tisdale AUSTRALIA’S BOM UPGRADES ENSO TRACKER STATUS TO EL NIÑO ALERT. On November 18, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) upgraded the conditions in the tropical Pacific from El Niño “watch” to “alert” levels, “indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring”. See the rest of their update here. NOAA’S WEEKLY… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/19/quicky-mid-november-2014-enso-update/

K. AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT REBUKES OBAMA’S CLIMATE CLAIMS Polarbeargate New Science Scandal: Polar Bear Researchers ‘Hide The Increase’ Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop criticises US president Barack Obama for a speech in Brisbane last weekend in which he claimed climate change threatened the Great Barrier Reef. It is highly unusual for an Australian foreign minister to openly criticise a US president. Ms Bishop also… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/20/australian-government-rebukes-obamas-climate-claims/

L. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ‘IRREVERSIBLE,’ U.N. PANEL WARNS IN REPORT By Joby Warrick and Chris Mooney November 2, 2014, The Washington Post The Earth is locked on an “irreversible” course of climatic disruption from the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the impacts will only worsen unless nations agree to dramatic cuts in pollution, an international panel of climate scientists warned Sunday. The planet faces a future of extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting polar ice from soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases, the U.N. panel said. Only an unprecedented global effort to slash emissions within a relatively short time period will prevent temperatures from crossing a threshold that scientists say could trigger far more dangerous disruptions, the panel warned. “Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts,” concluded the report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which draws on contributions from thousands of scientists from around the world. The report said some impacts of climate change will “continue for centuries,” even if all emissions from fossil-fuel burning were to stop. The question facing governments is whether they can act to slow warming to a pace at which humans and natural ecosystems can adapt, or risk “abrupt and irreversible changes” as the atmosphere and oceans absorb ever-greater amounts of thermal energy within a blanket of heat-trapping gases, according to scientists who contributed to the report. “The window of opportunity for acting in a cost-effective way — or in an effective way — is closing fast,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University geosciences professor and contributing author to the report. The report is the distillation of a five-year effort to assess the latest evidence on climate change and its consequences, from direct atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide to thousands of peer-reviewed scientific studies. The final document to emerge from the latest of five assessments since 1990, it is intended to provide a scientific grounding for world leaders who will attempt to negotiate an international climate treaty in Paris late next year. While the IPCC is barred from endorsing policy, the report lays out possible scenarios and warns that the choices will grow increasingly dire if carbon emissions continue on their current record- breaking trajectory. “It’s not too late, but the longer you wait, the more expensive it gets,” Gary Yohe, a Wesleyan University professor who also participated in the drafting of the report, said in an interview. Damage to the Earth’s ecosystems is “irreversible to the extent to which we have committed ourselves, but we will commit ourselves to higher and higher and higher damages and impacts” if the world’s leaders fail to act, Yohe said. A succession of IPCC reports since the 1990s have drawn an ever-clearer connection between human activity and climate change. But Sunday’s “synthesis report” makes the case more emphatically than before, asserting that the warming trend seen on land and in the oceans since the 1950s is “unequivocal” and that it is “extremely likely” — a term that the IPCC uses to denote a 95 percent or greater probability — that humans are the main cause. “Human influence on the climate system is clear,” the panel states in a 40-page summary intended for policymakers. In late 2013, when the first report of this round of the IPCC’s work came out, skeptics trained their attention on the contention that in recent years the rate of global warming has seemingly “paused” or slowed down. But the latest document is fairly dismissive of that idea, acknowledging that, while the rate of warming in the past 15 years has indeed been somewhat smaller than the rate since 1951, “trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends.” Although it is too early to say, claims about a possible slowing of global warming may be swept aside by new data: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, all-time monthly temperature records were broken four times in 2014 — in May, June, August and September — raising the possibility that 2014 may set a record as the hottest year ever. In cautious and often technically complex language, the new report cites soaring emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases in the past 60 years as the cause of nearly all the warming seen so far. While carbon dioxide is a naturally abundant gas essential for plant photosynthesis, it has been accumulating in the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate as a byproduct of the burning of fossil fuels by automobiles, power plants and factories. Concentrations of the heat-trapping gas is 40 percent higher than in pre-industrial times, a level “unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years,” the report states. Most of the excess heat is absorbed by the ocean, muting the effects. Yet, climate change is having profound impacts on “natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans,” the panel concluded. It cited rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, warmer air and ocean temperatures, melting glaciers and vanishing sea ice. And because of the long amount of time that carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, some impacts are locked in, perhaps for centuries to come, the report warned. “A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change . . . is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale,” the report said. Sea level rise, for example, “will continue for many centuries beyond 2100” because of ice-sheet melting that is underway and other causes. Scientists and policymakers have set a goal of restraining the average global temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, on grounds that a higher increase would change the climate so dramatically that neither humans nor natural ecosystems could easily adapt. That would probably require keeping concentrations of key greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to under 450 parts per million by 2100, the panel said. Concentrations passed 400 parts per million for the first time in 2013. Even with a rapid shift to renewable energy, the task of achieving such drastic reductions is daunting, IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri said in a speech last week as panel members began final revisions to the report. “May I humbly suggest that policymakers avoid being overcome by the seeming hopelessness of addressing climate change,” Pachauri said. “It is not hopeless. This is not to say it will be easy.” The report will likely add fuel to the debate over environmental policies in key congressional races. Candidates in several Senate and House races have clashed over how to respond to climate change and whether it indeed exists. Secretary of State John F. Kerry, reacting to the report, said it was time to move beyond the politicization of climate science. “We can’t prevent a large scale disaster if we don’t heed this kind of hard science,” Kerry said in a statement. “The longer we are stuck in a debate over ideology and politics, the more the costs of inaction grow and grow. Those who choose to ignore or dispute the science so clearly laid out in this report do so at great risk for all of us and for our kids and grandkids.” Editor’s Note: CO2 has increased unabated as shown by (Questioning global Warming claims offered by EPA, IPCC, Item C of Newsletter dated 141117) substantially unchanged for 18 years. Other Greenhouse gasses have entered the atmosphere during that same time, without increasing the temperature. If the temperature has not increased in 18 Years and the Greenhouses gasses have increased, the IPPC and EPA hypostasis saying Greenhouse gasses cause global warming is not true. GHH Rob W. Taylor,

M. RENEWABLE ENERGY – SOLAR AND WIND-POWER: CAPITAL COSTS AND EFFECTIVENESS COMPARED A comparison is made of both the Capital Cost and Energy Producing Effectiveness of the Renewable Energy investments of the USA, Germany and the UK. Guest essay is by Ed Hoskins. The summary diagram below collates the cost and capacity factors of Renewable Energy power sources compared to the cost and output capacity of conventional Gas Fired Electricity generation.… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/21/renewable-energy-solar-and-wind-power-capital-costs- and-effectiveness-compared/ This is an outstanding report of the difficulties experienced with Green Energy Generation. GHH

N. IT’S ALWAYS SOMETHING: CROPS TO BLAME FOR INCREASED ANNUAL VARIATION OF CO2 From the University of Wisconsin-Madison @UWMadScience Crops play a major role in the annual CO2 cycle increase MADISON, Wis. — Each year, the planet balances its budget. The carbon dioxide absorbed by plants in the spring and summer as they convert solar energy into food is released back to the atmosphere in autumn and winter.… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/20/mad-science-crops-to-blame-for-increased-annual- variation-of-co2/ Editors Note: Will EPA be required to reduce CO2 availability to food crops, too? GHH

O. CAN COWS HELP SAVE THE PLANET? Posted on November 19, 2014 | 362 comments by Judith Curry Some interesting new ideas about the role of soils, farming and livestock in fighting global warming. http://judithcurry.com/2014/11/19/can-cows-help-save-the-planet/#more-15071

P. CLIMATE RESEARCH NEEDS RE-DIRECTION Guest essay by Viv Forbes: Governments are running huge deficits, but still spend billions on “climate research” especially trying to model the effect of the atmosphere and its trace of carbon dioxide on surface temperature. Benefits are hard to find. It may have improved weather forecasts by a day or so, but official long-term predictions… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/22/climate-research-needs-re-direction-2/

Q. WILL GREEN POLITICS SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST? Climate News The electoral troubles of the green bullies Eric Worrall writes: Anyone following the recent G20 will be aware that skeptical politicians, such as Australia’s Tony Abbott and Canada’s Steve Harper, have been subject to intense public pressure from prominent greens like President Obama, to change their public position on climate change. What is less apparent… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/21/will-green-politics-soon-be-a-thing-of-the-past/

R. SHOCKER: TOP GOOGLE ENGINEERS SAY RENEWABLE ENERGY ‘SIMPLY WON’T WORK’ Green tech Guest essay by Eric Worrall. A research effort by Google corporation to make renewable energy viable has been a complete failure, according to the scientists who led the programme. After 4 years of effort, their conclusion is that renewable energy “simply won’t work”. According to an interview with the engineers, published in IEEE; “At the… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/22/shocker-top-google-engineers-say-renewable-energy- simply-wont-work/

S. OBAMA IGNORED US EMBASSY’S WARNINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SPEECH Anthony Watts / 5 hours ago November 23, 2014 Obama’s Climate Fiasco Drives Aussies Closer To India & China Barack Obama defied the advice of his embassy in Canberra to deliver a stinging attack on the Abbott government’s climate policies in Brisbane last weekend. The US embassy, under the leadership of Ambassador John Berry, advised the President, through his senior staff, not to couch his climate change comments in a way that would be seen as disobliging to the Abbott government, sources have revealed. Historians of the US-Australia relationship are unable to nominate a case of a visiting president making such a hostile speech for the host government. — Greg Sheridan, The Australian, 23 November 2014 The United States embassy in Canberra advised President Barack Obama not to make the provocative, anti-Abbott speech on climate change which he made at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. That the President acted against the advice of his own embassy reveals a deeply divided and in part dysfunctional Obama administration, unable to reconcile its foreign policy objectives and its domestic imperatives. Obama’s self-indulgent folly was in striking contrast to the masterful performances of China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Xi and Modi have both achieved almost everything they wanted from Asia’s season of summits. Obama has achieved almost nothing. –Greg Sheridan, The Australian, 22 November 2014 Germany is the biggest proponent of the green electricity revolution, but this new plant won’t be powered by the sun, wind or woodchips — it will burn dirty old coal. Built by German energy giant RWE at a cost of €2bn (£1.6bn), the plant is no aberration. This year the company, which owns Npower in Britain, and its rivals have poured billions of euros into a fleet of new coal-fired plants, the most polluting form of power generation. When finished they will be capable of supplying more than 8m households. Last year, German carbon dioxide emissions actually rose 1.2%, partly due to the resurgence of coal. –Danny Fortson, The Sunday Times, 23 November 2014 Two highly qualified Google engineers ( Item R, above) who have spent years studying and trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that renewables will never permit the human race to cut CO2 emissions to the levels demanded by climate activists. Whatever the future holds, it is not a renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible. Koningstein and Fork write: “At the start of RE

Thanks to Dr. Benny Peiser of the GWPF for this roundup

T. THE REGION OF UNUSUAL SEA LEVEL RISE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES CONTRIBUTES ONLY A LITTLE TO THE GLOBAL RATE Sea level Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The region east of the Philippines stands out on satellite-based sea level trend maps. See Figure 1, which is from the Map of Sea Level Trends webpage from the University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group. I’ve also shown the coordinates of the region that border it. Figure 1 THE… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/23/the-region-of-unusual-sea-level-rise-east-of-the- philippines-contributes-only-a-little-to-the-global-rate/

U. PEOPLE STARTING TO ASK ABOUT MOTIVE FOR MASSIVE IPCC DECEPTION IPCC Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball Skeptics have done a reasonable job of explaining what and how the IPCC created bad climate science. Now, as more people understand what the skeptics are saying, the question that most skeptics have not, or do not want to address is being asked – why? What is the motive behind corrupting… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/23/people-starting-to-ask-about-motive-for-massive-ipcc- deception/

V. SILLY HEADLINE OF THE DAY – NYT: CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS TO STRIP THE IDENTITY OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK Posted on November 24, 2014 by Bob Tisdale And the opening of the NewYorkTimes article reads: GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, Mont. — What will they call this place once the glaciers are gone? My suggestions are at the end of the post. https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/silly-headline-of-the-day-nyt-climate-change- threatens-to-strip-the-identity-of-glacier-national-park/#more-8199

W. THERE’S GROWING EVIDENCE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS DRIVING CRAZY WINTERS It may be the timeliest -- and most troubling -- idea in climate science. Back in 2012, two researchers with a particular interest in the Arctic, Rutgers' Jennifer Francis and the University of Wisconsin-Madison'sStephen Vavrus, published a paper called "Evidence linking Arctic amplify warming so rapidly is leading to an unexpected but profound effect on the weather where the vast majority of us live -- a change that, if their theory is correct, may have something to do with the extreme winter weather the U.S. has seen lately. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/20/theres-growing-evidence-that- global-warming-is-driving-crazy-winters/ Don Shaw X. CAN CONGRESS DERAIL OBAMA’S CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICIES? From the Washington Post: Congress can derail Obama’s global warming fantasies. Excerpts: The White House would have us believe that the president is unfazed by the midterm election debacle. There is plenty of coverage of President Obama’s upcoming unilateral actions on immigration and his yawner of an announcement of a non-binding agreement on global warming with the Chinese, but another executive overreach may be about to take place that will do a lot to reinforce voters’ reasons for voting against the Democrats and emphasize the notion that the president doesn’t get it. revealed today that the president is about to announce that three billion dollars of U.S. taxpayer money will be given to other countries to help “the world’s poorest adapt to the ravages of climate change.” The new Republican majorities in the House and Senate could seize on this latest blatant tone-deaf overreach and use it to build serious opposition to the Democrats’ dream of a wealth transfer from America to who knows where. Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) already said the president’s agreement with the Chinese “is the latest example of the president’s crusade against affordable, reliable energy that is already hurting jobs and squeezing middle-class families.” Republicans in the House and Senate are going to be focused on passing the Keystone XL Pipeline, rolling back onerous EPA regulations and increasing American energy security in the 114th Congress – not on helping the president raise Americans’ power bills and sending money we don’t have to foreign lands.

Y. CHINA’S NEW ENERGY PLAN FORECASTS BIG RISE IN CO2 EMISSIONS Paul Homewood / 1 day ago By Paul Homewood News from Enerdata that China has published a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020), presumably following on from the US-China agreement last week. The State Council of China has unveiled a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) focusing on the development of renewables and capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020, i.e. limiting the primary energy consumption growth rate to 3.5%/year until 2020. China aims to limit coal consumption to 4.2 Gt/year until 2020, a 16% increase over the 2013 consumption level of 3.6 Gt. China will also target a reduction of coal in the primary energy mix to under 62% by 2020, to the advantage of non-fossil fuels (15% by 2020 and 20% by 2030, from about 10% in 2013) and gas (10% by 2020). By 2020, the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 58 GW, with an additional 30 GW under construction; inland nuclear power projects will be studied, while the construction of nuclear reactors on coastal areas will begin “at a proper time”. China targets an installed hydropower capacity of 350 GW by 2020, with wind and solar capacities reaching 200 GW and 100 GW respectively. Shale gas and coalbed methane production should reach 30 bcm by 2020 and the energy self-sufficiency rate will be boosted to about 85%. http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy- news-001/china-unveils-new-energy-strategy-capping-annual-coal- consumption_30723.html A number of things stand out here:

1) Capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020 This refers to “Gigatonnes Carbon Equivalent”. Provisional figures for 2013, from CDIAC, give carbon emissions as 2.7Gtce, so China are allowing themselves a substantial amount of headroom to continue growing emissions. There should be no surprise here. As I pointed out a year ago, China’s promise to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP were actually likely to lead to a doubling of emissions, dependent on economic growth. As their commitment is to peak emissions by 2030, we can expect the figure of 4.8Gtce to continue to rise through the 2020’s. 2) China aims to limit coal consumption to 4.2 Gt/year until 2020, a 16% increase over the 2013 consumption level of 3.6 Gt No sign of any cuts in coal use then. 3) China will also target a reduction of coal in the primary energy mix to under 62% by 2020 While the proportion of coal within the overall mix is forecast to decline from 69% in 2011, the actual amount used will increase, as total energy consumption rises. 4) By 2020, the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 58 GW, with an additional 30 GW under construction; inland nuclear power projects will be studied, while the construction of nuclear reactors on coastal areas will begin “at a proper time”. China targets an installed hydropower capacity of 350 GW by 2020, with wind and solar capacities reaching 200 GW and 100 GW respectively. Although China has promised to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix to 20% by 2030. What is less well known is that hydro and other non-fossil fuels were already contributing 8% in 2011, according to the EIA, or approximately 20% of electricity output. This figure will have grown since then, with extra hydro coming on stream. It is likely that non-fossil sources will be supplying around 10% by the end of this year. Moreover, with new nuclear and hydro capacity already under construction or with planning approved, electricity generation from nuclear and hydro will likely more than triple from 772 TWh in 2011 to around 2500 TWh by 2025. None of this increase in capacity is happening as a result of any agreement with Obama. Instead it has been planned for several years. It also needs to be pointed out that China’s massive switch to hydro power has had highly damaging side effects, such as the displacement of as many as 23 million people, according to figures from the International Business Times. 5) Wind and solar reaching 200 GW and 100 GW by 2020 Capacities were 75 GW and 3GW respectively in 2013. In terms of output, by 2020 wind/solar should be supplying around 500 TWh pa, about 10% of China’s electricity needs. Nothing fantastic there then, and certainly nothing approaching UK targets. Perhaps the real story behind all of this is that China will continue to consume ever greater amounts of energy, as its economy continues to grow, something that won’t stop any time soon. The EIA show how this will carry on growing even after 2030, and how the use of fossil fuels will carry on growing in the meantime. .http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH The idea that China’s CO2 emissions will drop below today’s levels in my lifetime is sheer fantasy Don Shaw

Regards George