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Morning Focus December 15, 2017 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) INNOCEAN Worldwide (214320/Buy/TP: W96,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,469.48 -11.07 -0.45 Buying David & Goliath in first-ever acquisition KOSPI 200 324.74 -1.44 -0.44 KOSDAQ 770.35 -1.87 -0.24 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 313,627 8,117 KOSPI 200 132,142 7,131 KOSDAQ 970,728 7,065 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,606,804 KOSDAQ 274,124 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 2,613 2,241 372 Institutional 3,060 3,062 -2 Retail 2,398 2,773 -375 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 668 713 -44 Institutional 722 854 -132 Retail 5,670 5,494 176 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 3,084 3,137 -53 KOSDAQ 414 605 -191 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 373 429 77 KOSDAQ 511 611 117 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 2,553,000 -13,000 1,030 Hynix 76,000 -800 423 Netmarble Games 199,500 1,000 373 LG Electronics 101,500 3,600 254 KODEX LEVERAGE 17,610 110 235 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Celltrion Healthcare 94,000 900 664 Celltrion 209,500 -500 546 New Pride 6,300 1,450 396 SillaJen 84,900 -4,200 373 NATURECELL 25,650 3,900 274 Note: As of December 14, 2017 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research INNOCEAN Worldwide (214320 KS) Buying David & Goliath in first-ever acquisition Advertising INNOCEAN to acquire D&G, the US creative agency for Kia th Company Update On December 14 , INNOCEAN Worldwide disclosed that it has agreed to acquire David & Goliath LLC (D&G), a US ad agency based in Los Angeles that has handled Kia Motors’ December 15, 2017 (Kia) creative marketing in North America. We believe INNOCEAN Worldwide, which had been seeking an M&A deal to internalize Kia’s North America creative duties from 2018, chose to acquire the automaker’s current agency. Deal structure: 1) INNOCEAN Worldwide will invest W32.8bn in wholly-owned (Maintain) Buy subsidiary INNOCEAN Worldwide Holdings (IWH). 2) IWH will acquire a 100% stake in D&G, paying 50% in January 2018 and the remaining 50% over the next four years Target Price(12M, W) ▲ 96,000 based on the agreed percentages (tied to annual earnings). D&G earnings: In 2016, the US ad agency recorded revenue of W52.1bn, gross profit Share Price (12/14/17, W) 75,100 of W49bn, and net profit of W4.2bn. Revenue and net profit for 1H17 are estimated at W24.7bn and W2.3bn, respectively. Given that business tends to be seasonally Expected Return 28% concentrated in the latter half of the year, 2017 full-year earnings look likely to grow YoY. OP (17F, Wbn) 114 Key variables for 2018: M&A effects, new car models, and events Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 111 M&A effects: In addition to Kia, the D&G acquisition should also increase INNOCEAN’s exposure to foreign non-affiliates. Kia is estimated to account for roughly 60% of EPS Growth (17F, %) 8.5 D&G’s gross profit. The rest consists of local advertisers, such as Universal Studios Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 45.6 (media), HBO (media), and Jack in the Box (food). P/E (17F, x) 21.2 Reflecting the acquisition and consolidation of D&G, we are raising our 2018 gross Market P/E (17F, x) 10.1 profit estimate for INNOCEAN Worldwide by 9%. We forecast the North America region KOSPI 2,469.48 to contribute 55% of the company’s 2018 gross profit, up 8%p YoY. The company should also benefit from the US tax reform, which is expected to lower the corporate Market Cap (Wbn) 1,502 tax rate from 35% to 20% from 2019. Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 Free Float (%) 57.0 New car marketing: Major affiliate clients Hyundai Motor (HMC) and Kia have a Foreign Ownership (%) 32.9 number of new models lined up for 2018. In the US, HMC is set to release the Genesis Beta (12M) 0.61 G70, an electric Kona, and fuel-cell electric vehicles. In particular, the automaker will 52-Week Low 56,200 beef up its SUV lineup (Santa Fe, Kona, Tucson, etc.), and begin selling its Genesis G70 globally. Meanwhile, Kia plans to launch a new Forte in the US, while sales of Kia 52-Week High 77,800 Stinger are anticipated to gather steam. (%) 1M 6M 12M Events: As official sponsors of FIFA, HMC and Kia plan to actively take advantage of the Absolute -1.8 19.8 24.3 2018 Russia World Cup to market their new models. Other sports events like the Super Relative 0.4 15.1 2.6 Bowl, the Australian Open, and the Genesis Open (PGA tour) will also likely be used as a platform for marketing. 160 INNOCEAN Worldwide KOSPI 140 Reaffirm Buy and Raise TP to W96,000 We reaffirm our Buy call on INNOCEAN Worldwide and raise our target price to 120 W96,000 (from W93,000). We are positive on 1) the good earnings visibility of the 100 company’s first acquisition, funded by its ample cash holdings (equal to half of its market cap), 2) the company’s growth strategy focused on strengthening its overseas 80 12.16 4.17 8.17 12.17 capabilities, and 3) expected ROE improvement. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Internet/Game/Advertising] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 745 988 1,052 1,178 1,449 1,550 Jee-hyun Moon +822-3774-1640 OP (Wbn) 83 93 99 114 133 142 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.1 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.2 9.2 NP (Wbn) 82 70 65 71 82 89 EPS (W) 4,551 3,696 3,267 3,546 4,100 4,451 ROE (%) 21.5 13.7 10.4 10.4 11.2 11.2 P/E (x) - 18.9 17.5 21.2 18.3 16.9 P/B (x) - 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 Dividend yield (%) - 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. December 15, 2017 INNOCEAN Worldwide Earnings and forecasts Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F Revenue 275 237 232 308 287 266 275 349 1,051 1,178 1,449 Gross profit 89 96 88 109 93 98 96 125 381 412 492 Parent 27 33 31 38 26 33 30 44 129 133 133 Consolidated 62 62 57 71 67 65 67 81 252 279 360 - Americas 39 38 37 50 46 42 46 58 165 192 269 % of gross profit Parent 30.0 34.9 35.6 34.6 27.8 33.9 30.8 35.2 33.9 32.2 27.0 Consolidated 70.0 65.1 64.4 65.0 72.2 66.1 69.2 64.8 66.1 67.8 73.0 - Americas 43.9 40.1 42.4 46.3 49.6 42.8 48.0 46.1 43.3 46.5 54.5 Operating profit 20 27 22 31 21 26 25 41 99 114 133 OP margin 7.4 11.2 9.4 10.2 7.4 9.7 9.2 11.8 9.5 9.7 9.2 Net profit 17 23 16 21 14 25 20 29 78 88 102 Net margin 6.3 9.9 6.9 6.9 4.9 9.3 7.3 8.4 7.4 7.5 7.0 YoY Revenue 21.1 14.1 -3.7 -1.5 4.5 12.3 18.8 13.4 6.4 12.0 23.0 Gross profit 27.7 30.3 13.6 12.4 4.0 2.8 9.2 14.8 20.0 8.1 19.5 Parent 11.4 11.6 -0.7 -19.8 -3.7 -0.1 -5.6 16.7 -2.5 2.7 0.2 Consolidated 36.3 43.0 23.4 41.8 7.4 4.3 17.3 14.5 36.2 10.9 28.6 - Americas 62.9 60.0 38.4 83.3 17.4 9.5 23.6 14.2 61.2 16.0 40.1 Operating profit 13.0 34.3 10.1 -11.7 5.6 -2.8 16.7 31.7 7.0 14.5 16.7 Net profit 11.1 45.1 -8.3 -26.3 -18.3 5.2 25.8 38.2 0.0 13.2 15.5 Notes: Consolidated K-IFRS; for advertising firms such as INNOCEAN Worldwide, gross profit reflects top line; net profit is attributable to controlling interests and non-controlling interests. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F Revenue 1,178 1,295 1,178 1,449 0.0 11.9 Revised up overseas earnings estimates Gross profit 412 453 412 492 0.0 8.7 Reflected North America M&A Operating profit 114 123 114 133 0.0 8.0 Revised up SG&A estimates Net profit 88 95 88 102 0.4 7.4 EPS 3,533 3,796 3,546 4,100 0.4 8.0 OP margin 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.2 Net margin 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling interests and non-controlling interests; EPS is attributable to controlling interests Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 December 15, 2017 INNOCEAN Worldwide Valuation Table 3.
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