THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS IN BULGARIA GEORGI STOILOV 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 6 1. Main Tendencies in the Transition of the ex-Socialist Countries from East and Middle Europe 20 2. Transformation to Democracy in Bulgaria 29 2.1. The Election Law, the Political Regime and the Political Institutions 29 2.2. Formation and Development of the Political Parties and Party System in Bulgaria 31 2.2.1. Dynamics and development of the parties and party systems 31 2.2.2. Formation of the Political Parties in Bulgaria 40 2.2.3. The Political Parties in Bulgarian Society 45 2.2.4. Formation of the Party System in Bulgaria 48 2.3. The Bulgarian media environment in evolution process 59 2.3.1.Institutional frame 59 2.3.2.The assumptions of change 61 2.3.2.1.Chronology of change. Pure message 63 2.3.2.2.Media matière of past 65 2.3.2.3.Advertising images of freedom 66 2.3.2.4.The failure of changes as media article 67 2.3.2.5.Positions unclearness 68 2.3.2.6.The fault start of the reform and its information indemnity 69 2.3.2.7.Configuration of daily newspapers 70 2.3.2.8.Vulgarisation of media language 71 2.3.3.The situation in the electronic media 71 2.3.4. Media and power. The power of media 73 2.4. Political Culture 75 2.5. Demographic Development of the Present Bulgarian Society 77 2.5.1. Natural development of the population 77 2.5.2.Natality of the population 78 2.5.3.Population mortality 79 2 2.5.4.Average life expectancy 80 2.5.5.Population migration 80 2.5.6.Directions for leading an effective demographic policy 82 2.6. The Change in Minority Policies: The Bulgarian Ethnic Model 83 2.7. Social and cultural aspects of Bulgaria’s integration into the EU structures 87 2.7.1.Social and cultural dimensions of Bulgarian transition 87 2.7.2.Cultural industries and cultural consumption 89 2.7.3.Normative basis and legislative preconditions 92 2.7.4.The effects of integration 94 2.7.5. The State of Bulgarian Culture 95 2.8.Summary 96 3. The Socio-Economic Transformation of Bulgaria 98 3.1.The Difficult Shift to Market Economy 98 3.1.1.The Shock Therapy: pro and con 98 3.1.2.The Slow Privatisation 99 3.1.3.The Foreign Debt 102 3.1.4.The New Start of Radical Changes 104 3.2.The Military Complex conditions at the moment of the change 112 3.2.1. Production capacity and specialization 112 3.2.2. Trade partners 116 3.2.3. Trade size 117 3.2.4.Summary 129 3.3.The Bulgarian – German economic relations after 1989 135 3.3.1.Trade interrelations between Bulgaria and Germany after 1989 136 3.3.2. Investments 137 3.4.The present State of the Socio-Economic Transformation 141 4. The Adaptation of Bulgaria’s Foreign and Security Policy 141 4.1.The Political Reforms 144 4.2.Changing Bulgaria in Changing World 144 4.3.From Dictatorship to Democracy 149 3 4.4. The Transformation Efforts in Bulgaria and the Isolation from the West 151 4.4.1.The Prejudice 151 4.4.2.The Cut Roads to the West 154 4.5. The European Objectives of Bulgaria and the Armed Forces Reform: the Impact on the Society 155 4.6. Change in Foreign and Security Policies: Bulgaria’s Perception of the New International System: Forces, Patterns, and Dynamics of Change 161 4.6.1.Overcoming the Satellite Syndrome 168 4.6.2. On the perspectives of the SEEC-Russian relations 170 4.6.3.The Foreign Policy of Bulgarian Governments After 1989. 171 4.6.4. Southeastern Europe Nowadays and Bulgarian Foreign Policy 180 4.6.5.The New Foreign Policy Priorities 189 4.6.6. Summary 195 5. Bulgaria and EU and NATO 201 5.1.Bulgaria and the West. The Challenges of the Enlargement 201 5.2.The strategy of Bulgaria for membership in NATO and European Union 203 5.3.The attitude of society towards the strategy for NATO and EU integration 207 5.4.How can Bulgaria’s membership contribute to the development of NATO and EU 210 5.5.The price of the membership 211 5.6. Summary 214 Appendix 1 216 Appendix 2 217 Appendix 3 219 5.7. New start in proving the European identity of Bulgaria 219 5.8. The future of the European Union: a view from Bulgaria. What is new in the EU model after Nice? 227 5.9. Conclusions and Perspectives 233 Bibliography 235 List of Abbreviations 244 4 The changes that started at the very end of eighties in the former socialist countries concern the total life of society and it is practically imposible, even for a much bigger science work, to give a full picture of the historically unique transition. That’s why I have tried to choose the themes in order to make the most full revision of the most characteristic features for Bulgaria during the last 11 years. Thus the separate chapters of the work are unified naturally by the trend to analyse the important events and processes , characteristic for the country transformation. ∗ ∗ I wish to thank Prof. Dr. R. Seidelmann for the valuable advices and the kind support, which made my research in Germany very productive and useful. 5 Introduction I. THE LEVEL OF TRANSITION IN BULGARIA Bulgaria has a long way to go in its transition to the market economy. By January 2001 official data and estimates show that a lot has been done and still more has to be done in the coming years. In 1999 the private sector has produced value added (VA) which is 57.1 % of gross domestic product (GDP) or 65.4 % of gross value added (GVA). Some downward corrections reduce this percentage to 45 % of GDP. These and other numbers are very encouraging as they show the steady change in the economy due to privatisation and new emerging businesses. In 1999 the private sector has employed 61 % of all the employees. At the same time according to the Global Competitiveness Report estimates the economic growth of the country in 2000-2008 (measured by GDP per capita) will average 1.68 % per year which amounts to 18 % more with respect to 1998 but is still just 89 % of 1989 record. According to other estimates in 2000 the gross domestic product per capita ($) has been $ 1890, the average gross monthly wage $ 105, the unemployment rate 17.8 %, and the inflation rate 12.1 %. These and other economic readings mean that the country is behind all other Eastern European countries (EEC) candidates for accession to the EU, with respect to the number of its population, and has registered second highest rate of unemployment. After a decade of painful efforts and several governments being in power, the country will have its next elections in midsummer. The vote is coming under the following tendencies and current issues: • The years of transition that have passed (1990-2000) clearly show that the political and institutional reforms have had been leading in front of the economic reform. Usual as it may be, it turned over time into a very serious problem because a sluggish economic reform proved to have a markedly negative impact on the speed and the overall quality of the socio-economic change. 6 • The political system and the institutions have had begun to gradually lose their connection with the economic reform in that they had being reproducing themselves for the sake of the democratic process with no due impact on the speed of the economic development of the country. • With respect to the abovementioned, political structures capsulation and bureaucracy have had emerged to such an extent that they have had highly reduced the efficiency of the institutions. • The lack of democratic tradition and the shortages of qualified and well-trained experts and devoted to their duties new politicians coupled with the lack of political will and due deeds (measures) have had appeared as one of the reasons for the slow run of the Bulgarian economic reform. That doesn’t mean that the country has no good quality records. Bulgarian society has had already achieved a broad consensus on its foreign policy orientation, it is having a financial (under a Currency Board since mid 1997) and a political stability. Recently Bulgaria is going through a relatively new socio-political situation: As it has been acknowledged, the time of the restrictive stabilization policy has already gone but the time of the new economic growth policy - though generally declared by the government - has not yet come. This, in fact an awkward, transition moment and the disappointment of the electorate makes foretelling this midsummer vote results very difficult. Whatever the new Bulgarian government, two things are out of question: the European orientation of the country and its decided efforts on the road to the market economy. The future new accents in the economic policy and whether it will be totally liberal are not clear now. What is clear is that the elections and the new cabinet will guarantee the ongoing ethnic model, which proved to be a successful one, and its good bilateral relations with the neighbouring countries. By now the new economic growth policy has been generally discussed. It is expected it will reckon on selected sectors growth. And this has already been criticized for giving up the total liberal market policy, favouring some branches and ignoring most of the others.