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CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE THE IMPACT OF THE FUTURE ON THE NEWSPAPER ·' A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Mass Communication by Herbert Paul Ford ,/ January, 1975 The thes#of Herb..eft} Paul Ford is approved: California State University, Northridge December, 1974 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Several persons are due special thanks for the part they have played in the inspiration and execution of this thesis. Dr. DeWayne Johnson, professor of journalism at California State University, Northridge, stimulated my thinking over a period of months as the original idea for the thesis was developing. Throughout prepa ration of the manuscript he gave consistently helpful guidance and en couragement. Initial steps in the thesis preparation were taken under the di rection of Dr. Joseph N. Webb of the California State University, Northridge, journalism faculty. His presentation of diverse, new re search methods and his concern for the subject is much appreciated. Gratitude is also due the World Future Society, Media General, Inc., and the faculty and staff of Pacific Union College for materials and other help given as work on the thesis went forward. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii Chapter I. FUTURE'S WORLD ..... 1 II. THE FUTURE AND ITS STUDY. 12 III. IMPACTUS ... 33 IV. FUTURE FREE?. 60 V. THROUGH THE STAR GATE • • • 76 BIBLIOGRAPHY .• . 94 ( iv ABSTRACT THE IMPACT OF THE FUTURE ON THE NEWSPAPER by Herbert Paul Ford Master of Arts in Mass Communications December, 1974 In terms of itself print journalism has devoted most of its atten tion to the past and the present. During less complex times this back ward-sideward look proved adequate if not rewarding. The complexity of modern society, however, with its onrush of technology and threats to traditional American freedom of the press, calls for a look in a third direction--the future. It is in the development of alternative scenarios of the future, through the formation and consistent functioning of futures study groups, that news ~per problems of the future may be more easily met. By the study of numerous possible futures, and in the setting of strat egies to accommodate each, newspapers may more effectively meet to morrow's challenges. Because it deals with the probable rather than the actual, study of the future is sometimes considered little more than science fiction. However, futures study, with its attendant, growing body of literature and developing methodology, has already made significant contributions v to an awareness of the future in business and industry. Its contri butions, if sought, may provide significant help to the newspaper busi- ness. The actual written or visual depiction of futures scenarios has a contributory effect both in stimulation of the depictor to help "make it happen," and in commending futures study to others. The testing of print journalism scenarios of the future among editors, publishers and reporters is likely to stimulate action eventuating in the development of more newspaper futures study groups. vi CHAPTER I FUTURE'S WORLD The weather in Sansan had turned unusually cold during the past 24 hours. This morning's TILA (today's integrated living analysis) was assuring its viewers that the arrival of two new ice reservoirs from Antarctica, now anchored just off the suburb of San Francisco, was not the cause. A low-pressure system moving onshore, which had been-continuously monitored since its birth two weeks ago in the Gulf of Alaska by the World Weather Authority, was the cause of the nippy weather. TILA explained that the two bergs were completely covered with a tough plastic designed to prevent melting and evaporation. The effect of the icebergs on the atmosphere was negligible. The living analysis noted that the two white masses would be producing roughly half the fresh water needed to supply Sansan for half a year. Quarrying of the bergs would begin just as soon as break-up and conveyor systems could be installed, the report concluded. 1 Jim Milstad found the coolness of the weather refreshing as he stepped out onto the viewdeck of his habitat in the Clearspring living center. The unvarying 68-degree temperature inside, regulated by Clearspring's Control Central, left Jim with a growing desire for change. Although he knew it was out of the question, he sometimes 1 2 wanted to tell the Control Central people to take ~is habitat off the system for just one day so he could make things as hot or as cold as he liked. "I'd like to see how it feels to get the place really hot or cold for once," he thought. Far off to the northwest Jim could see the pearly tops of the two bergs with the line of deep blue reaching to the horizon beyond. It was cool, he thought, as he reached down to flip on the extension of his habitat information console. "I'll get another fix on those bergs," he mused. "They must be pretty big if they show up so clear here from more than 10 miles away!" Jim pushed the "Newsci" button on the publications panel of the console, knowing that the arrival of the bergs would be one of the bigger stories in the scientific news daily. Out of the console's COPY slot smoothly rolled the early morning edition of SCISCOPE, its vinyl-like composition still warm to the touch. "Dad told me there was an old saying back in the 20th century which went 'Get it while it 's hot, "' Jim laughed to himself. "They mtis t have had us in mind when they thought that one up." The two icebergs, Jim read on page three, had started their jour ney from Antarctica 10 months ago. Less than one-tenth of their ice capacity had been lost in the journey because they had been surrounded by two sheets of plastic-type insulation. The sheets were actually a sort of quilt with water in between, almost completely sealing off the bergs from outside temperature changes as they moved slowly northward. Specially designed helio and tug craft, mere specks in comparison to the giant white mountains, had brought them up from the south. A holographic view of the ice masses dominated the lower half of 3 SCISCOPE's third page. Interested, Jim dropped the page onto the con sole's Holoview table. The huge size and brilliant azure whiteness of the ice mountains, contrasting with the deep purple-blueness of their watery bed, was almost too striking for words. A story on SCISCOPE's first page caught Jim's eye as he took the publication off the console. It concerned an enlarged experimental ecological system on the lunar surface. The new luna farm, noted the article, was the second commercially viable one established in the southern Lunasphere. The new proteid production system was expected to begin making a dent in Earth's continual food shortage within a few months. A new fleet of micro-quartz-skinned space truc~s was being readied to bring an estimated 100 tons of foodstuffs daily from the moon fields to newly completed facilities just outside the center of Bosnywash on the Atlantic coast.2 Despite refinements in breeding controls, motorized farm equip ment, and improved crop selectivity, the SCISCOPE article pointed out, the long-time food crisis on Earth was far from over. The experimen tal systems on the lunar surface were seen as the forerunners of Earth's best hope for relief. Computer-controlled communications be tween food producers on earth and the moon were already providing in stant, tailor-made answers for the toughest of the lunar food produc ers' problems, but the best answers alone were not good enough to keep up with the demands of more than 10 billion earthlings, it seemed. The lack of food, Jim knew, was Earth's most vexing problem. It dominated all the news reports. Everyone talked about it, realizing that without a workable answer soon, another "solution" in the form of international warfare like that of 1996 and 2012 might soon explode 4 again. Despite giant strides in production of the high-nutrient fish, single-cell, and petro proteins, food shortages only seemed to in crease. Laboratory products such as MOD (a milk-orange drink combin ing the protein of milk and the vitamins of orange juice) and the highly enriched soybean beverage powder substitute for milk, long hoped to be the answer, had helped millions. But hunger remained the single most volatile issue on Earth.3 "They'd better get a hundred of those luna farms operating if they are going to stop another war like that last one," sighed Jim as he fed the copy of SCISCOPE back into the console for recycling. He touched a button on a small panel beside the information console as he started back into his bachelor habitat. In exactly four minutes a transmover would be waiting outside his front door in response to the command of the button. Inside the compact, soft-toned habitat, Jim suddenly felt uneasy. He glanced at the SMT (small intelligence terminal) on his desk, then at the master information console on the nearby wall with its panels of communication buttons and switches. He walked over and laid his hand on the MHC (master habitat control) unit which automatically han dled every operation in the habitat. "What would happen if all this stuff just went 'Pow!' someday?" Jim asked himself. "It'd take an army to get it going again. But .,"he paused, "maybe if that happened I'd get a chance to do some thing for myself.