Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist
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Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist 1 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist The economic situation report presents a broad analysis of the world's macroeconomic performance and a focused analysis of the Central American region. The report was prepared under the leadership of Florencia T. Castro-Leal PhD Chief Economist of CABEI. Research and drafting were carried out by Miguel Ángel Medina Fonseca (Economist) and Carmen Elisa Méndez (Junior Economist), the revision was overseen by Armando Enrique Navarrete (Principal Economist) and CABEI Secretariat provided the English translation service. The content of this publication is the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the official position of CABEI. 2 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist CONTENTS I. VACCINATION AGAINST COVID-19 IS MAKING PROGRESS BUT HERD IMMUNITY WILL BE ACHIEVED AFTER 2021 ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 II. WORLD ECONOMY PRESENTS POSITIVE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 2021 .............................................. 10 III. CENTRAL AMERICA PRESERVES MOMENTUM WHILE FISCAL CHALLENGES PERSIST ................................. 17 ANNEX 1. FOREIGN CURRENCY LONG-TERM SOVEREIGN DEBT RATING ........................................................... 23 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 24 3 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist MONTHLY ECONOMIC SITUATION REPORT JANUARY 2021 I. VACCINATION AGAINST COVID-19 IS MAKING PROGRESS BUT HERD IMMUNITY WILL BE ACHIEVED AFTER 2021 The second wave of COVID-19 is registering mixed results around the world in 2021. The virus has infected more than 95.8 million people (about 1.2% of the world population), of which 68.4 million have recovered and 2.0 million have lost their lives, with a mortality rate of 2.1%. The American and European continents have the highest number of confirmed cases globally, with 40.5% and 28.9% as of January 18. The United States (U.S.) is the most affected country, registering more than 150,000 new cases per day since mid-November; on January 8, 2021, it peaked at more than 308,000 daily cases. The six countries with the highest number of confirmed cases are Brazil, Russia, France, The United States, India, and the United Kingdom, representing 55.9% of total cases. The first three are showing an upward infection curve, while the remaining contagion is slowing. Figure 1. New daily cases of COVID-19 in the world (7-day rolling average) Source: Our World in Data with information of de Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 as of January 18, 2021. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 4 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist Graph 1. Evolution of daily-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world's most affected countries. Source: Office of the Chief Economist with information from Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center as of January 18, 2021 https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases Latin America and the Caribbean region show heterogeneous results. While in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Chile, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic, new cases are increasing, others such as Argentina, Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama remain constant or with downward trends. Central American confirmed cases exceed one million people. More than 715,000 patients have recovered, 20,082 registered deaths with a mortality rate of 2.0%, lower than that of the rest of the world. Nevertheless, there are variations at the country level, which may be due to underreporting the number of confirmed cases associated with asymptomatic people. 5 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist Graph 2. Cumulative confirmed cases, number of deaths and mortality rate (number of persons and percentage). Source: Office of the Chief Economist with Woldometers COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic information as of January 18, 2021. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-caseshttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Eight COVID-19 vaccines were approved in recent weeks. The Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were registered in 50 and 36 countries, respectively, making them the most widely approved in the world. CABEI partner countries have focused on three vaccines: Pfizer / BioNTech has been approved by Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Spain, Mexico, and Panama; AstraZeneca / Oxford for Argentina, El Salvador, Mexico and the Dominican Republic; and Sputnik V de Gamaleya for Argentina. Figure 2. Vaccines approved throughout the world. Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker as of January 18, 2021. https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/ 6 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist Israel is one of the leading countries implementing the vaccination plan. 2.16 million Pfizer shots were administered as of January 18, 2021, corresponding to almost 25% of its population; reports show a 50% reduction in infections. Rapid vaccination was due to an agreement between the pharmaceutical company and Israel. The country would give Pfizer access to several medical databases on people receiving the dose, thus becoming a "laboratory." The vaccine information provided by Johnson and Johnson's has raised expectations. Preliminary findings indicate that a single injection generates more neutralizing antibodies than a single dose of other COVID-19 vaccines. While others depend on a two-dose regime. The Norwegian Medicines Agency warned that vaccines against Covid-19 with mRNA technology could be fatal for a population group. People over 80 years of age and terminally ill may be at risk of side effects (fever and nausea) and fatal outcomes with the application of Covid-19 vaccines developed with mRNA technology. After 23 deaths of older people were registered shortly after receiving the vaccination. The United Kingdom reported a variant strain of a more contagious COVID-19 virus, which has spread to at least 33 countries worldwide. On December 14, 2020, U.K. authorities informed the World Health Organization of a new variant strain of SARS-CoV-2. They also imposed containment measures at the end of December and early January. Meanwhile, several countries worldwide reacted to this situation by imposing travel restrictions to the United Kingdom. Preliminary analysis available of the strain indicates the following1: - The presence of 14 mutations defines this. - It can spread more easily among people as this variant is more contagious than the previous viruses in circulation and represents an estimated increase of 40% to 70% in transmissibility. - Studies are underway to verify the efficacy of the approved vaccines to the variant strain. Preliminary results indicate that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine could be effective against the new variants in the United Kingdom and South Africa, according to a study conducted by scientists from Pfizer and the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB)2 of the United States. - No significant differences in hospitalization or death rates were found. It does not cause a more severe illness or an increase in mortality3. The pandemic is expected to end in the United States in the second half of 2021. The United States could reach the pandemic's epidemiological end (herd immunity) in the third or fourth quarter of 2021. In this regard, President-elect Joe Biden will implement a strategy that includes: i) expanding eligibility to vaccinate more 1 Organización Mundial de la Salud. (21 de diciembre 2020). Cepa variante del SARS-CoV-2 – Reino Unido. https://www.who.int/csr/don/21-december-2020-sars-cov2-variant-united-kingdom/es/. 2 Pfizer Inc. (January 8, 2021). An In Vitro Study Shows Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Elicits Antibodies that Neutralize SARS-CoV-2 with a Mutation Associated with Rapid Transmission. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/vitro-study- shows-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-elicits. 3 Science Alert. (1 January 2021). New Coronavirus Variant Now in US And UK Doesn't Cause More Severe Illness. https://www.sciencealert.com/new-coronavirus-variant-now-in-us-and-uk-doesn-t-cause-more-severe-illness-says-study. 7 Central American Bank for Economic Integration Office of the Chief Economist people; ii) creating more vaccination sites; iii) increasing the supply and distribution of vaccines; iv) mobilizing more staff to support the vaccination effort; and v) launching a campaign of public education aimed at those who hesitate to get vaccinated. The main goal is to ensure equitable access to the vaccine throughout the country. However, important questions remain concerning vaccines, such as long-term safety, timely and effective distribution, and public acceptance. The main factors that will determine when herd immunity is reached are4: - The approval of the vaccine for use in minors. - Information on reducing disease transmission from inoculated persons. - The determination of the seroprevalence (percentage of the population that has developed antibodies against COVID-19), given that some geographical areas of the country would be closer to collective immunity than others. - The result of the studies on how long the immunity