The military buildup continues and could produce a nuclear weapon around the turn of the century. Iran's Regional

Powerhouse By Bill Gertz

I RAN has embarked on a major mod- of missiles on tiny islands in the With such modern fighters as the ernization and buildup of its mili- Strait of Hormuz, form the outline of M1G-29 (opposite), Iran is beginning a developing challenge to US inter- to pose a new threat in the danger- tary force, one that includes selective ous Persian Gulf region. Now purchases of new advanced weapons ests in the region. outfitted with in-flight refueling and an ominous nuclear weapons The objective of the naval buildup, capability, the M1G-29s can project program. said one American military official Iranian power around the Gulf. US officials contend that the Shiite who tracks it, is "to develop the ca- Muslim regime will be in a position pability to choke us off, at least tem- to construct a crude but workable porarily, at the Strait of Hormuz, or nuclear device at the turn of the cen- if they can't choke us off, at least tury. The development of a "Persian make it very difficult for us to get bomb" is Iran' s top priority, and in." Many of the oil-producing sheik- Tehran receives technology and aid doms in the Persian Gulf region rely from both Russia and China, accord- on American military protection to ing to Pentagon officials. resist Iranian pressure and influence. "We're talking about something the Ninety percent of Japan's oil and size of a boxcar," explained one De- sixty percent of Europe's oil pass fense Department expert, "but with the through the strategic region. Iranians, a truck or a merchant ship can be a weapon-delivery system." High - Quality Warplanes In the field of conventional power, The Iranian Air Force is relatively Iranian military planners are taking small but has improved its arsenal of steps to bolster their naval forces, in warplanes with Soviet-made MiG- particular with purchases of Chinese 29 "Fulcrums" and Su-24 "Fencers" advanced cruise missiles. Moreover, as its primary combat aircraft. With Tehran has purchased new and up- a newly installed in-flight refueling graded surface warships, including capability, Iran's MiG-29s have been five new "Houdong" Chinese fast- given greater range. The Fencers, attack craft delivered in March to Iran's main strike aircraft, could be the port at Bandar Abbas. used to deliver nuclear weapons if The ships and cruise missiles, Iran ever acquires one of appropri- along with other recent deployments ate size and weight.

52 AIR FORCE Magazine / June 1996 tial forthetotalproductionofsome to producesomepartsthatareessen- turing programlacksthecapability probably haveoneverysoon." have achemicalwarhead,theywill range, and,iftheydonotalready can bringdebarkationportswithin ballistic missilesfromNorthKorea, purchasing NoDongmedium-range Iran alsohasexpressedinterestin possessing some200to300Scuds, cash shortagebecause oflowoilprices tempered somewhatbyitseconomic lar totheSovietFROG-7. produces short-rangemissiles simi- capabilities foritsScuds.Iran also tually havecompletemanufacturing types ofsystems.Iranhopestoeven- one Pentagonofficialsaid."They Cooperation Council]withinrange," can bringeverycapitalinthe[Gulf once theNoDongisreadyforsale. meters, respectively.Inadditionto about 300kilometersand500kilo- missiles, weaponshavingrangesof worldwide, rapid populationgrowth, woes, whichincludeaUSembargo, a Soviet-designed ScudBandC AIR FORCE Magazine/June Iran's militarybuilduphas been Iran' sballisticmissilemanufac- Iran alsoisnowbuildingitsown "With theScudBsandCs,they 1996 Iran, withaGross DomesticProduct clusion ofthe1980-88warwith Iraq. program, whichalsoispretty well priorities [arerelatedto]weaponsof Iraq, orotherPersianGulfnations. for Tehran'sspecificpurposes—war units thataremoremaneuverable billion. Thelatterproblemhasmade of onlyabout $80billionin1990, gan in1989,notlongafter thecon- advanced." logical program,andtheir missile is prettywelladvanced,theirbio- gram, theirchemicalprogram,which mass destruction—theirnuclearpro- said thePentagonofficial. diate threatasaconflictwithus," against forward-deployedUSforces, and havemoreadvancedweapons forces evidentlycallsforcreating weapons procurement.In1996and international creditneededtofinance it difficultforTehrantogainthe Priorities $3.4 billiononweapons. and anexternaldebtestimatedat$35 1997, Iranisexpectedtospendroughly The currentmilitarybuildup be- The DoDofficialadded,"Iran's "I thinktheyseetheirmostimme- Iran's planforitsconventional posed bythesurrounding nuclear reservists. MostoftheGuardsare troops—including itsmosteliteforce, rent arsenaltoabout1,200tanks,1,000 hicles, 106artillerypieces,fifty-seven ran hasbeenactiveonthearmspro- Russia, Pakistan, andIndia. and nuclear-threshold states:Israel, gional powerandcounterthe threats cialists outsidegovernment, Iran fense Departmentofficials and spe- ground forces. Guard Corps.Another350,000are the 120,000-strongRevolutionary force totalingabout513,000active million, Iranmaintainsanarmed twenty-eight warships. artillery pieces,265aircraft,and armored personnelcarriers:2,000 The purchaseshaveexpandeditscur- combat aircraft,andtwelvewarships. tanks, eightyinfantryfightingve- curement front.Duringtheperiod government analystsreportthatTeh- fense budgetroseto$3.8billion. seeks nucleararmstobecome are- same year.Thenextyear,thede- spent $3.1billiononitsmilitarythat 1989-95, Iranacquired184newbattle Nuclear arms. With apopulationofabout64 Washington officialsandnon- According toDe- 53

Photo © Ha ns Ha adt / Arms Co mmun icat io ns "The nuclear route may be the only gram is believed to be the largest in These fighters plus some twelve way for Iran to become a regional pow- the Middle East and includes the Su-24 Fencers provide Iran's princi- er without destroying its economy," production of several types of blis- pal air projection capabilities. The said Michael Eisenstadt, senior fel- tering, choking, and nerve agents. Su-24s have extended range, mak- low and specialist on the Iranian Mr. Eisenstadt believes the Iranians ing them capable of reaching targets military for the Washington Insti- have produced 2,000 tons of chemi- throughout the Persian Gulf region, tute for Near East Policy. "While cal agents to date and can produce according to the Pentagon. building a bomb could cost billions, several hundred tons of agent a year. Air defense. Efforts to increase rebuilding its conventional military Iran produces bomb and artillery Iran's air defense capability also have would cost tens of billions." shells with chemical agents and prob- been stepped up. Its tradition of air- Iran's procurement activities rep- ably has deployed missile warheads craft-to-aircraft air defense, largely resent clear evidence of a drive to with deadly poisons. the result of the US-trained air force build nuclear arms. The acquisitions Meanwhile, Iran's deadly biologi- that developed before the 1978-79 include: cal weapons include such agents as revolution, is giving way to a ground- • Research reactors from Argen- anthrax and botulinum toxins [see based air defense. tina, India, China, and Russia. "Horror Weapons," January 1996, The Iranians have been unable to • Argentine reprocessing technol- p. 44]. build a nationwide, integrated air de- ogy for separating plutonium from "Tehran's biological warfare pro- fense network. As a result, the Ira- used reactor fuel. gram provides Iran with a true mass- nian military relies on point defense • Nuclear powerplants from Rus- destruction capability for which the of key locations using surface-to-air sia and China. United States . . . currently lacks an missile (SAM) batteries. • Gas centrifuge components from effective counter," Mr. Eisenstadt The Iranians have small numbers Switzerland, Germany, and Russia. said. of Chinese model SA-2s and Rus- On at least one occasion since the Air forces. The Iranian Air Force, sian SA-5 and SA-6 SAMs. Iran re- disintegration of the Soviet Union, with 30,000 personnel, has an air- portedly may purchase the highly Iran approached the government of a craft inventory that includes not only capable SA-10 missile system that successor state (Kazakhstan) and Soviet-designed systems but also the Russians have been aggressively sought—unsuccessfully—to make a Chinese F-4s, F-5s, F-7s, and US- marketing as the S-300. direct purchase of enriched uranium made F-14s. The US systems, though Key SAM-defended areas include suitable for bomb-making. aging and difficult to repair, are still Tehran and centers involved in de- The nuclear program "is still in a key part of the forces. velopment or production of weap- the research and development phase," Reports have indicated that the ons of mass destruction—nuclear a Pentagon official said, "but they Iranians are negotiating to buy Su- research, chemical weapons produc- have a vast acquisition network, and 27 Flankers from Russia. The Irani- tion and manufacturing, and biologi- they are getting what they need. ans already have twenty-five MiG- cal arms work. One key facility de- Expense is no object. It is a high- 29s. They can be refueled by a fleet fended with the antiaircraft weapons priority program." of KC-707 and KC-747 tankers, is the nuclear complex at Bashir. Air Chemical and biological weap- bought long ago by the Shah' s gov- defense forces include about 18,000 ons. Iran' s chemical weapons pro- ernment. military personnel. Surface naval forces. The Irani- an naval buildup has been closely watched by US Central Command, whose area of operations includes the Persian Gulf. Vice Adm. John S. Redd, commander of US Navy forces in the region, highlighted the threat posed by Iran's newly acquired Chi- nese C-802 sea-launched antiship cruise missiles in January. Admiral Redd said he believes the test firing of C-802s in January showed that Iran has increased its ability to threaten shipping throughout the re- gion. He called the C-802 a "new dimension" to the Iranian threat. C-802s can travel up to seventy- five miles and carry a warhead weigh- ing about 150 to 165 kilograms. The actual number of C-802s bought by the Iranians is not known. Iran has acquired another effec- Before the Shah's downfall, Iran's armed forces had a decidedly Western accent, tive antiship missile: the Ukrainian- as these F-14 Tomcats demonstrate. They also have British and French weapons, produced "Sunburn," a hypersonic which are difficult to support in the face of a continuing arms embargo. weapon. 54 AIR FORCE Magazine / June 1996 Moreover, the Admiral reported, five Chinese Houdong patrol boats were delivered to Iran in mid-March. The vessels represent a qualitative increase in Iran's naval capabilities. The Iranian Navy has "five more platforms that can be mounted with cruise missiles," he said. "It used to be we just had to worry about landbased cruise missiles," the Admiral continued. "Now they have the potential to have [cruise mis- siles] throughout the Gulf, mounted on ships." Admiral Redd said deployments of Iranian surface-to-surface mis- siles, like the C-802, and surface-to- air weapons have tripled since Sep- tember 1994. Many are located in areas that can threaten shipping or US carrier-based aircraft. Iran has upped the naval stakes considerably with the purchase of three Kilo- "What we have seen over that pe- class submarines from Russia. Though virtually useless in the shallow waters riod is a slow and steady increase in of the Persian Gulf, they should be effective in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere. capabilities of the Iranian military, particularly in the naval and mari- time capabilities," he said. The new of two Soviet-designed Kilo-class US officers said that the Chinese missiles are "obviously something diesel submarines that Tehran bought advanced mines include special we pay attention to" because of the from Russia. The submarines are in mines that lie on the bottom in the presence of US aircraft carriers in operation and will be joined by an- mud and are propelled upward after the region. other Ki/o-class boat this year. sensing a ship passing above. The The new cruise missiles, the Ad- The Kilos are armed with high- mines are difficult to detect and are miral noted, are not the most ad- technology, wake-homing torpedoes, deadly. vanced. But, he added, "a cruise which, according to the Pentagon, Ground forces. Iranian ground- missile is a cruise missile, and you've are effective against all types of ships. force development has been relatively got to stop it or knock it down. We Because its waters are so shallow, modest. Still, Iran has purchased in take it all seriously." the Persian Gulf is a poor location the past several years Soviet-designed Central Command is not alarmed for submarine operations; the US T-72 tanks outfitted with antitank by the Iranian buildup. "We can Navy, for example, would have little guided missiles in addition to the main handle the threat," Admiral Redd difficulty spotting them, tracking guns. "It's a capable system," said a said. However, he emphasized that them, and destroying them. The Ki- Defense Department analyst. the US military presence in the re- los operate mostly in the blue water The ground forces—divided be- gion is aimed at keeping stability. of the Gulf of Oman. Currently sta- tween the elite, well-equipped Revo- "We're not here to threaten anybody," tioned at Bandar Abbas, they even- lutionary Guard divisions and the he noted. "We're here to ensure free- tually will be based at Chah Bahar. less-capable regular divisions—are dom of navigation and to make sure "We think they'll get another Kilo currently armed with M48s, British- there's a free flow of oil ... to ensure submarine this year, and that should built Chieftains, and other types of stability and security." be the end of it for a while," a Penta- tanks left over from the Shah's days. Iran' s ten French Combatant II gon official said. "They need to ab- A key to future planning is devel- ships at one time were armed with sorb that, and [Kilos are] very ex- oping the capability to produce T-72s French-made Exocets and US Har- pensive." indigenously, as the Iranians see self- poons, but no Harpoon firings have Sea mines. From China, Iran is sufficiency in weapons and parts as a been detected since the 1980s. Two acquiring new underwater mines. key goal. T-72s will probably be- of the Combatant Hs, however, were These can be deployed from a sub- come standard for the ground troops. modified by Chinese weapons tech- marine and can cause havoc in ship- Most of the ground troops are de- nicians last year to fire C-802s. ping lanes, whether target vessels ployed along the Iraqi border, and Iran's ten new Houdong missile are commercial or military. These Iran views Baghdad as the principal boats are equipped to fire C-802s. new Chinese mines would upgrade regional threat. The Iranians believe Submarines. Iranian naval power Iran's World War II–era mines, weap- their ground forces, combined with was greatly expanded by deployment ons it currently manufactures. nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and missiles, are the pri- mary means of carrying out another Bill Gertz covers national security affairs for the Washington Times. His most war with Iraq, or with US forces, if it recent Air Force Magazine article, "RED HORSE of the Balkans," appeared in should ever come to blows in the the April 1996 issue. Gulf. •

AIR FORCE Magazine /June 1996 55