Iran's Regional Powerhouse
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The military buildup continues and could produce a nuclear weapon around the turn of the century. Iran's Regional Powerhouse By Bill Gertz I RAN has embarked on a major mod- of missiles on tiny islands in the With such modern fighters as the ernization and buildup of its mili- Strait of Hormuz, form the outline of M1G-29 (opposite), Iran is beginning a developing challenge to US inter- to pose a new threat in the danger- tary force, one that includes selective ous Persian Gulf region. Now purchases of new advanced weapons ests in the region. outfitted with in-flight refueling and an ominous nuclear weapons The objective of the naval buildup, capability, the M1G-29s can project program. said one American military official Iranian power around the Gulf. US officials contend that the Shiite who tracks it, is "to develop the ca- Muslim regime will be in a position pability to choke us off, at least tem- to construct a crude but workable porarily, at the Strait of Hormuz, or nuclear device at the turn of the cen- if they can't choke us off, at least tury. The development of a "Persian make it very difficult for us to get bomb" is Iran' s top priority, and in." Many of the oil-producing sheik- Tehran receives technology and aid doms in the Persian Gulf region rely from both Russia and China, accord- on American military protection to ing to Pentagon officials. resist Iranian pressure and influence. "We're talking about something the Ninety percent of Japan's oil and size of a boxcar," explained one De- sixty percent of Europe's oil pass fense Department expert, "but with the through the strategic region. Iranians, a truck or a merchant ship can be a weapon-delivery system." High - Quality Warplanes In the field of conventional power, The Iranian Air Force is relatively Iranian military planners are taking small but has improved its arsenal of steps to bolster their naval forces, in warplanes with Soviet-made MiG- particular with purchases of Chinese 29 "Fulcrums" and Su-24 "Fencers" advanced cruise missiles. Moreover, as its primary combat aircraft. With Tehran has purchased new and up- a newly installed in-flight refueling graded surface warships, including capability, Iran's MiG-29s have been five new "Houdong" Chinese fast- given greater range. The Fencers, attack craft delivered in March to Iran's main strike aircraft, could be the port at Bandar Abbas. used to deliver nuclear weapons if The ships and cruise missiles, Iran ever acquires one of appropri- along with other recent deployments ate size and weight. 52 AIR FORCE Magazine / June 1996 ns io t ica mmun Co Arms / adt Ha ns Ha © to Pho Iran also is now building its own and an external debt estimated at $35 spent $3.1 billion on its military that Soviet-designed Scud B and Scud C billion. The latter problem has made same year. The next year, the de- missiles, weapons having ranges of it difficult for Tehran to gain the fense budget rose to $3.8 billion. about 300 kilometers and 500 kilo- international credit needed to finance Washington officials and non- meters, respectively. In addition to weapons procurement. In 1996 and government analysts report that Teh- possessing some 200 to 300 Scuds, 1997, Iran is expected to spend roughly ran has been active on the arms pro- Iran also has expressed interest in $3.4 billion on weapons. curement front. During the period purchasing No Dong medium-range Iran's plan for its conventional 1989-95, Iran acquired 184 new battle ballistic missiles from North Korea, forces evidently calls for creating tanks, eighty infantry fighting ve- once the No Dong is ready for sale. units that are more maneuverable hicles, 106 artillery pieces, fifty-seven "With the Scud Bs and Cs, they and have more advanced weapons combat aircraft, and twelve warships. can bring every capital in the [Gulf for Tehran' s specific purposes—war The purchases have expanded its cur- Cooperation Council] within range," against forward-deployed US forces, rent arsenal to about 1,200 tanks, 1,000 one Pentagon official said. "They Iraq, or other Persian Gulf nations. armored personnel carriers: 2,000 can bring debarkation ports within "I think they see their most imme- artillery pieces, 265 aircraft, and range, and, if they do not already diate threat as a conflict with us," twenty-eight warships. have a chemical warhead, they will said the Pentagon official. With a population of about 64 probably have one very soon." million, Iran maintains an armed Iran' s ballistic missile manufac- Priorities force totaling about 513,000 active turing program lacks the capability The DoD official added, "Iran's troops—including its most elite force, to produce some parts that are essen- priorities [are related to] weapons of the 120,000-strong Revolutionary tial for the total production of some mass destruction—their nuclear pro- Guard Corps. Another 350,000 are types of systems. Iran hopes to even- gram, their chemical program, which reservists. Most of the Guards are tually have complete manufacturing is pretty well advanced, their bio- ground forces. capabilities for its Scuds. Iran also logical program, and their missile Nuclear arms. According to De- produces short-range missiles simi- program, which also is pretty well fense Department officials and spe- lar to the Soviet FROG-7. advanced." cialists outside government, Iran Iran's military buildup has been The current military buildup be- seeks nuclear arms to become a re- tempered somewhat by its economic gan in 1989, not long after the con- gional power and counter the threats woes, which include a US embargo, a clusion of the 1980-88 war with Iraq. posed by the surrounding nuclear cash shortage because of low oil prices Iran, with a Gross Domestic Product and nuclear-threshold states: Israel, worldwide, rapid population growth, of only about $80 billion in 1990, Russia, Pakistan, and India. AIR FORCE Magazine /June 1996 53 "The nuclear route may be the only gram is believed to be the largest in These fighters plus some twelve way for Iran to become a regional pow- the Middle East and includes the Su-24 Fencers provide Iran's princi- er without destroying its economy," production of several types of blis- pal air projection capabilities. The said Michael Eisenstadt, senior fel- tering, choking, and nerve agents. Su-24s have extended range, mak- low and specialist on the Iranian Mr. Eisenstadt believes the Iranians ing them capable of reaching targets military for the Washington Insti- have produced 2,000 tons of chemi- throughout the Persian Gulf region, tute for Near East Policy. "While cal agents to date and can produce according to the Pentagon. building a bomb could cost billions, several hundred tons of agent a year. Air defense. Efforts to increase rebuilding its conventional military Iran produces bomb and artillery Iran's air defense capability also have would cost tens of billions." shells with chemical agents and prob- been stepped up. Its tradition of air- Iran's procurement activities rep- ably has deployed missile warheads craft-to-aircraft air defense, largely resent clear evidence of a drive to with deadly poisons. the result of the US-trained air force build nuclear arms. The acquisitions Meanwhile, Iran's deadly biologi- that developed before the 1978-79 include: cal weapons include such agents as revolution, is giving way to a ground- • Research reactors from Argen- anthrax and botulinum toxins [see based air defense. tina, India, China, and Russia. "Horror Weapons," January 1996, The Iranians have been unable to • Argentine reprocessing technol- p. 44]. build a nationwide, integrated air de- ogy for separating plutonium from "Tehran's biological warfare pro- fense network. As a result, the Ira- used reactor fuel. gram provides Iran with a true mass- nian military relies on point defense • Nuclear powerplants from Rus- destruction capability for which the of key locations using surface-to-air sia and China. United States . currently lacks an missile (SAM) batteries. • Gas centrifuge components from effective counter," Mr. Eisenstadt The Iranians have small numbers Switzerland, Germany, and Russia. said. of Chinese model SA-2s and Rus- On at least one occasion since the Air forces. The Iranian Air Force, sian SA-5 and SA-6 SAMs. Iran re- disintegration of the Soviet Union, with 30,000 personnel, has an air- portedly may purchase the highly Iran approached the government of a craft inventory that includes not only capable SA-10 missile system that successor state (Kazakhstan) and Soviet-designed systems but also the Russians have been aggressively sought—unsuccessfully—to make a Chinese F-4s, F-5s, F-7s, and US- marketing as the S-300. direct purchase of enriched uranium made F-14s. The US systems, though Key SAM-defended areas include suitable for bomb-making. aging and difficult to repair, are still Tehran and centers involved in de- The nuclear program "is still in a key part of the forces. velopment or production of weap- the research and development phase," Reports have indicated that the ons of mass destruction—nuclear a Pentagon official said, "but they Iranians are negotiating to buy Su- research, chemical weapons produc- have a vast acquisition network, and 27 Flankers from Russia. The Irani- tion and manufacturing, and biologi- they are getting what they need. ans already have twenty-five MiG- cal arms work. One key facility de- Expense is no object. It is a high- 29s. They can be refueled by a fleet fended with the antiaircraft weapons priority program." of KC-707 and KC-747 tankers, is the nuclear complex at Bashir.