Spotlight 2018-2019

SPOTLIGHT 2018–2019

Introduction RAND Europe’s long-standing well as developing areas of Through such collaborations, we commitment to high-quality expertise that demonstrate these learn from experience and use research and objective relationships. Take, for example, the insights gained to achieve analysis remains a beacon our research collaboration better outcomes. through continued political with the Policy Institute at and economic uncertainty in King’s College London and the Behind our efforts lies RAND’s Europe and worldwide, helping University of Cambridge on a mission to help improve policy policymakers cut through timely study that re-examines the and decision making through complexity and base decisions British people’s preferences on research and analysis. We on evidence. With offices Brexit. Or take the partnership, refreshed our values in 2018 in Cambridge and Brussels, again with the University of to reaffirm those qualities that we are well placed to find Cambridge, to provide research we believe to be the essence solutions to critical, cross- and analysis for The Health of our organisation – Quality, cutting issues in a post-Brexit Improvement Studies Institute Objectivity, Collaboration, Service world. Our work is enriched by (THIS Institute). In addition, our and Learning – which we strive our constructive linkages with education practice has been to apply in everything we do. clients, collaborators, RAND enhanced by strong linkages Thank you for your interest Corporation colleagues and the with RAND Education and Labor, and support. communities we strive to serve deepening our interdisciplinary through our research. capability. We’ve also strengthened our client base, for This year’s Spotlight highlights example helping the European a selection of new research Parliament work through projects and initiatives as complex policy challenges. Hans Pung, President 2 |

Table of contents

Have the British people’s Expanding horizons preferences on Brexit 4 for researchers changed 14 months on? 18

Social media in Africa: Kicking off: Preventing 8 A double-edged sword 20 violence in 2022

Ammonia: Why the The cost of terrorism 10 big stink? 22 in Europe

EPIC ways to tackle Research Excellence 12 childhood deprivation 24 Framework

16 Focusing on education 25 Future Combat Air Strategy Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 3

26 European defence matters 38 Events in 2018

Collaborating to Our Council of Advisors 30 improve healthcare 40

32 Creating the new Silk Road 42 Clients and collaborators

34 Incentives to exercise 44 Deepening our expertise

36 Refreshing our values

Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 5

Have the British people’s preferences on Brexit changed 14 months on?

Having voted to leave the EU in the 2016 EU referendum, two British people years on Britain still finds itself in a volatile and unpredictable reject a no-deal environment. Policymakers on both sides of the British Parliament continue to argue about the future that Britons desire in a post- option even more EU era. However, the referendum itself told us very little about firmly in 2018 people’s preferences for Britain’s future relationship with Europe. than they did in 2017 This lack of clarity on what post-Brexit world. Following relationship British people really the success of that pioneering wanted with Europe was the work, we repeated the study in basis for an innovative study in 2018 to see whether the political 2017 by RAND Europe, the Policy discourse and events of the Institute at King’s College London previous year had an impact on and the University of Cambridge. people’s views and priorities. The That proof-of-concept study result? We find that British people used ‘stated preference discrete reject a no-deal option even more choice experiments’, a Nobel- firmly in 2018 than they did in prize winning methodology, 2017, with the strongest single to quantify the British public’s preference being for a ‘Norway- Charlene Rohr specialises in choice preferences for Britain’s like’ deal that retains access to modelling and was the RAND relationship with the EU in a the Single Market. Europe research lead for this study 6 |

The experiments asked a asked to assess the attributes than remaining in the EU (25%), representative sample of and indicate which choice they being in the Customs Union the general public to choose would prefer. A crucial aspect to (11%) or a no-deal Brexit (22%). between different UK–EU the experiment was that people relationship options, using had to make trade-offs – it is An important counter-finding, various combinations of seven not possible to have all these however, was that while most attributes: potentially desirable attributes of the public have shifted to in one package. Another prefer a ‘softer’ Brexit, support • Freedom of movement for important aspect was the idea for ‘harder’ Brexit options holidays of reciprocity: constraints on has grown among voters • Freedom of movement for freedom of movement for EU with no formal educational work nationals would also apply to qualifications. Compared with • Contribution to the EU budget UK nationals. others, this group places less value on freedom of movement • The ability to make free trade Since 80 per cent of the people and more on sovereignty to deals with countries outside in the 2018 sample were also allow the UK to make its own the EU involved in the 2017 study, we laws. • Access to the Single Market were able to measure how their for goods preferences had changed. The As Spotlight goes to print, the • Access to the Single Market option most valued in the 2018 outcome of the Brexit debate for services study was one that resembles remains uncertain. A ‘Norway- like’ option is increasingly • Law-making sovereignty. membership of the European Economic Area (similar to a mentioned in news reports of The options avoided the use Norway-like deal). This option UK political discourse. That of labels, such as Norway, was chosen by 43 per cent of option, if pursued, would reflect Canada-plus, remain or ‘no deal’. the sample, up from 38 per cent what our study shows many Instead people were simply in 2017. It was more popular British people would prefer. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 7

Based on surveys of almost 1,000 members of the British public, who were asked to trade on different aspects of a possible agreement to exit the EU, we find that:

The British public still want a close relationship 1 with the EU, with the most preferred option resembling membership of the EEA.

There has been a softening of the type of relationship that 2 Britons want with the EU as well as an increase in the number of people who want to remain in the EU.

Education level is important in 3 explaining the continued polarisation of views on the way forward for Brexit.

The value British people place on the proposals set 4 out in the Chequers plan is difficult to quantify due to its lack of clarity on key issues of concern.

Should there be another referendum, 5 the options offered in a vote will significantly influence the outcome. 8 |

Social media in Africa A double-edged sword

The spread of social media and Boko Haram. Drawing on shutdowns on mainstream in Africa has brought many primary Twitter data analysis, social media sites. While the economic and political benefits. our findings confirmed that use of specific online channels It has also equipped terrorist all three terrorist groups use differs across groups, we found groups with a low-cost tool for social media and other online that the role of social media radicalisation and recruitment. platforms to broadcast their in the radicalisation process messages, inspire followers is often complemented by the The United Nations and recruit new fighters. Of ‘offline’ influences of family and Development Programme the three, ISIL has the most peer networks. (UNDP) commissioned RAND advanced online strategy Europe to explore social media and uses the widest range The governments of the use and online radicalisation of platforms. The evidence countries studied – Cameroon, in seven African countries, suggests that these groups Chad, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, focusing on three of the most are increasingly shifting Sudan and Uganda – are only lethal Islamist militant groups recruitment activities to private now starting to recognise worldwide: ISIL, al-Shabaab channels following account and respond to the issue of Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 9

Focus countries and terrorist groups

Chad Boko Haram, ISIL

Sudan Al-Shabaab, ISIL

Somalia Al-Shabaab, ISIL

Nigeria Boko Haram, ISIL

Cameroon ISIL, al-Shabaab Boko Haram, ISIL and Boko Haram Kenya all use social Al-Shabaab, ISIL media and other Uganda Al-Shabaab, ISIL online platforms to broadcast their messages, inspire online radicalisation. Bespoke The study was launched at followers and recruit national strategies will be UNDP’s Maendeleo Policy needed to tackle it, along with Forum in Ethiopia in November new fighters counter-online-radicalisation 2018, an event attended by UN programmes tailored to local representatives, African Union contexts. Trusted institutional members and regional experts. accounts are also important to The work has also been featured share reliable news and counter in a range of media outlets damaging extremist content. and highlighted by the World Finally, individual governments Economic Forum. Furthermore, should consider sharing informed by our study, the lessons on ‘what works’ in UNDP is now developing a countering online radicalisation, communication toolkit for at national, regional and counter-extremism practitioners Kate Cox is a senior international levels. in the Horn of Africa. analyst at RAND Europe 10 |

Ammonia Why the big stink?

While levels of other air and slurry, and by applying and human health, including pollutants have declined, manmade chemical fertilisers. potential costs to the economy, ammonia emissions in the UK in collaboration with and funded have been rising since 2013. RAND Europe examined by the Royal Society. We found Agriculture accounts for 82 per the evidence on the effects that ammonia emissions do cent of emissions, with ammonia of agricultural ammonia negatively affect biodiversity. released naturally from manure emissions on biodiversity Ammonia is one of the main Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 11

sources of nitrogen pollution, available emissions projections, which has a significant impact is between £580m and £16.5bn on plant species diversity per year. Policy changes to and composition within reduce emissions will most affected habitats. There is likely require a mix of regulation, less evidence on the impact of incentives and education to ammonia on animals and the manage manure production, wider ecosystem. However, storage and spreading. Wider herbivorous animals are education and awareness- susceptible to the effects of raising for the public and the ammonia pollution on their food retail sector on the importance sources. Ammonia run-off in and costs of ammonia reduction fresh water can also have toxic may also be needed, so that the If no action is effects on aquatic animals. full cost of these measures does not fall solely on the agricultural taken to reduce Quantifying the economic sector and/or government impact of ammonia emissions subsidies. ammonia on biodiversity is challenging, but a conservative estimate The project methodology was emissions, the suggests that, when loss of underpinned by new evidence biodiversity and human health synthesis principles, developed in cost to the UK impacts such as cardiovascular collaboration with the Academy and respiratory problems are of Medical Sciences. The study could exceed combined, the cost to the UK served as a pilot, with RAND could exceed £700m per year by Europe staff spending time 2020 if no action is taken. The on-site to help the Royal Society £700m range of possible costs, based build their capacity to apply the on literature estimates and principles in practice. per year by 2020 12 |

EPIC ways to tackle childhood deprivation

2018 saw the five-year anniversary of the European Commission Recommendation ‘Investing in Children – breaking the cycle of disadvantage’. In Europe, 20 million children still live at or below the poverty line. Investing in these children is investing in our future. But how can we know what works? Too often interventions are described as ‘good’ or ‘best’ practices without sufficient evidence that they actually have impact. With limited resources, governments and other bodies need to be sure they are investing in proven strategies.

Working together with the knowledge-sharing platform taken place and how the European Commission (EC), EPIC (the European Platform for evaluation was done. we have developed a rigorous Investing in Children) contains evidence-based framework to only policies and practices A team of independent experts evaluate and share evidence that have demonstrated reviews the evidence supporting on what really works in child their effectiveness through each practice submitted, and family policy and practice. research. The strength of against our stringent evaluation Created and maintained by evidence depends on whether framework. A practice deemed RAND Europe, the EC’s online independent evaluation has evidence-based and robust

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This evidence- based review is assigned one of three context and have potential for system distils out evidence levels. An ‘emergent effectiveness. practice’ is one that meets the practices with the framework’s standards in This evidence-based review proven positive ‘evidence of effectiveness’. A system distils out the practices with proven positive impact on impact on children ‘promising practice’ is one that meets standards in ‘evidence children and families – those and families of effectiveness’ and at least with the potential to break the one of two other categories: cycle of childhood disadvantage ‘transferability’ to other contexts and help people achieve their and/or ‘enduring impact’ over full potential. time. A ‘best practice’ – the We also summarise the gold standard for evidence- research in ways that make based intervention – is one that it easy for practitioners and meets standards in all three policymakers to use, and categories. work to build awareness of Furthermore, EPIC features strong practices, for example practices that have been by providing practical developed recently, but that guidelines on how to use the Axelle Devaux is a research are innovative, promise evidence for policymaking or leader at RAND Europe and desired change within an EPIC implementation. leads the EPIC project Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 15

How does the evaluation framework work? A team of independent The practices are then assigned one of three evidence experts reviews the evidence levels depending on which criteria they meet: supporting each submitted practice against three criteria: Emergent practice Meets the standards in evidence of effectiveness

Evidence of effectiveness Promising practice Meets standards in evidence of effectiveness and one of two other categories, transferability Transferability Enduring or enduring impact impact

Best practice Meets the standards in all three criteria

Drawing on EPIC research, 2010 and 2017. This paper level and how they can be RAND Europe has drafted outlines national and used to fund initiatives to a series of policy papers on school-level approaches to help all children reach their child wellbeing topics in 2018, inclusion of these children in potential. including: education systems. RAND Europe is proud to have • Family-friendly workplaces. • Paternity and parental leave. been involved in an initiative as With many people struggling All EU member states offer important as EPIC. We believe to balance work and family some form of paternity and/ our rigorous evaluation of obligations, this paper or parental leave, but there practices can help policymakers, describes policies and are wide variations in leave practitioners and ultimately initiatives that may help to length, compensation and children and families across increase flexibility in working eligibility. This paper reviews Europe, and that it would hours and work locations. current provision and the be beneficial to identify and likely impact of the European promote evidence-based • Education for Pillar of Social Rights. practices in other policy areas. unaccompanied migrant The EPIC framework has the children. Over 260,000 • Tackling child poverty and potential to be adapted and unaccompanied minors social exclusion in the EU. applied elsewhere to provide applied for asylum in EU An overview of the various objective guidance on what member states between funding mechanisms at EU genuinely improves outcomes. 16 |

Focusing on EDUCATION

Education is regularly identified for evaluations across medicine as a top priority for local and and agriculture; by applying national policymakers, both as the same strict controls and We have been a crucial mechanism to build research disciplines to policy using RCTs to new skills in a fast-changing evaluation, we can provide the world and for its potential role in same high quality of evidence generate robust, addressing wider societal issues for education. We have been objective evidence such as health, inequality, crime using RCTs to generate robust, and social mobility. Over the objective evidence for the for the impact past three years RAND Europe’s impact of well-known and of well-known Education group has built widely used interventions. and widely used up a strong interdisciplinary For example, we are carrying team that conducts high- out a high-profile evaluation interventions quality, policy-relevant of Primary Science Quality research to inform more Mark (PSQM), a whole school effective educational policies, approach to improve science programmes and practices. provision in primary schools, co-funded by the Education Our biggest area of current Endowment Foundation (EEF) work is conducting randomised and the Wellcome Trust. This controlled trials (RCTs) will test the impact of PSQM on to evaluate the impact of science attainment and on pupil different educational practices, and teacher attitudes towards spanning a range of ages and science teaching and learning in subjects. This is an exciting 140 schools across England. We field with a lot of potential for are also finalising a large-scale policy. RCTs have long been EEF evaluation of Accelerated Elena Rosa Brown leads the considered the ‘gold standard’ education portfolio at RAND Europe Reader, a popular reading Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 17

programme, and we are excited approach to teacher appraisal and practitioners. Possible about our trial with Microsoft and an international comparative options include briefings that and Achievement for All, looking study of science and maths draw together the findings into the impact of Microsoft’s teaching commissioned by the from multiple different RAND free reading software. Royal Society. evaluations, and extending in-depth analysis of particularly In addition to our trials, we have Going forward, we are exploring interesting datasets, such been working to add to the new ways to leverage the as our work on the teacher education evidence base using outputs from our research and retention problem in and a variety of methodological evaluation portfolio to increase around Cambridge. approaches. We developed their value for policymakers the TALIS Starting Strong Survey for the OECD, which is a valuable tool to help participating countries fill key data gaps on the professional development, working conditions and pedagogical practices of Early Childhood Education and Care educators. The project will help to inform discussions on the development of the teaching profession and identify improvement opportunities for early childhood learning and wellbeing across different countries. Another example is our work on the recently completed Campbell Collaboration systematic review, led by the Institute of Criminology at the University of Cambridge, which examines the impact of interventions to reduce exclusion from school. We have also expanded our international remit with recent projects including a review of Morocco’s 18 |

Expanding horizons for researchers Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 19

Many researchers travel or outcomes by forging new move around the world for collaborations and developing work, whether in academia or ideas, skills and expertise. the private sector, from PhD There are concerns, however, students onwards. Their ability about barriers to mobility. to move freely may be helped Family-related challenges or hindered by factors such as are the most frequently cited funding or visa requirements. obstacles to international Commonly reported relocation. Visa requirements outcomes of international The Together Science may also limit mobility due mobility include: Can campaign asked us to the time, complexity and to help them gain a better cost of applying. Researchers understanding of researchers’ from Asia and Africa are most Formed new experiences of travelling for likely to report visa-related 80% collaborations work and how these vary challenges, especially for internationally. The project short visits. African and Asian followed on from RAND Europe researchers also rely more research undertaken in 2017 on on independent funding than Developed international mobility from a UK on funding from their own 80% new ideas perspective, this time taking a institutions. Finally, political global view. developments – such as the We conducted an online survey UK’s decision to leave the EU covering 109 countries and and changes in the US political climate – and their possible Gained technical nearly 2,500 researchers, who 78% skills or expertise answered questions about impact on mobility are causing travel patterns, relocation, concern among researchers, enablers and obstacles they due to their possible impact on had experienced, and the mobility. perceived outcomes of their Published The results are being used 64% a paper international moves. Three- by the Together Science Can quarters of respondents had campaign to address possible relocated to another country for barriers to international travel research purposes. and promote opportunities Performed Nearly all researchers from all and benefits, so researchers experiments or 55% made observations nationalities surveyed believe can work better together in the that international mobility future. Through this research is important for research – RAND Europe is developing a whether they themselves have robust evidence base on the factors that influence mobility Changed direction moved for work or not. They 54% of research or feel strongly that international in science and the outcomes it research question movement improves research can help achieve. KICKING OFF Preventing violence in 2022

Protecting spectators and Our study is the first to draw rivalries and thrill-seeking can locals from violent or antisocial together and critically assess all play a role. Situational and behaviour is a key responsibility the evidence on violent and spatial factors, such as ease of for any country hosting a major antisocial behaviour at football movement within a venue, also sporting event. With Qatar set to matches, and we found a key affect crowd behaviour, though host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, evidence gap exists on the no single factor is responsible in Qatar University commissioned prevalence of the problem. all cases. RAND Europe to gather the While physical assaults, available evidence on factors projectile throwing, vandalism We identified a number of that are associated with and verbal aggression all promising practices for disorder at football matches, happen, there is no publicly preventing and tackling violent as well as the effectiveness of available information on how and antisocial behaviour, different approaches to prevent common or severe these including use of CCTV cameras, it. The tournament will be the incidents are. mandatory fan transport to first time an event of this scale stadiums and restrictions has been held in Qatar and the We know a little more about on alcohol consumption. first time the World Cup has the reasons why people may Intelligence-led policing and taken place in the Gulf region. behave violently or antisocially. low-intensity approaches that Alcohol consumption, team seek to build cooperation with Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 21

fans through mutually respectful dialogue also appear promising. While these strategies lack conclusive proof of effectiveness, since little robust evaluation has yet taken place, they represent a good starting point for authorities planning sporting events.

As the first strategic study of football violence, our work makes an important contribution to the field. It provides an essential resource not just for Qatari planners, but for anyone hoping to host a safe and successful major sporting tournament. 22 |

The cost of terrorism in Europe

The tragic and life-changing covering all 28 EU countries improves our understanding of consequences for individuals and calculated new, more the nature and extent of harm who are physically and comprehensive estimates of the caused by terrorism, beyond the psychologically injured in cost of terrorism. individual level. terrorist attacks are only too clear. The wider and less We estimate that the EU lost At the same time, RAND Europe’s tangible costs on the economy approximately €180 billion in report takes into account and society, however, are not GDP terms due to terrorism costs that are not so easily so readily apparent. Yet better between 2004 and 2016. The quantified when weighing up measuring these costs can UK (€43.7bn) and France EU counter-terrorism policy. deepen our understanding of the (€43bn) suffered the highest Certain measures taken to longer-term impacts of terrorism economic losses in GDP terms, combat terrorism have had a and inform decision making followed by Spain (€40.8bn) disproportionate impact on about investment in counter- and Germany (€19.2bn). suspects and wider groups terrorism measures. within society. Measures that Our analysis also shows that the fail to protect fundamental rights The European Parliament negative impacts of terrorism can themselves lead to costs, as commissioned RAND Europe on the well-being of a population well as being counterproductive. to undertake a wide-ranging are measurable. Effects on study to map EU action and trade, foreign direct investment The report includes potential cooperation in the fight against and tourism have been captured policy options to reduce terrorism and estimate the in previous analyses, but we the possibility of terrorist potential costs and impacts found that terrorist attacks are attacks and subsequent of gaps and barriers. associated with quantifiable negative economic costs. The reductions in life satisfaction, assessment of these options Drawing on our in-house happiness, health and trust takes into account their possible expertise on terrorism and within communities and effectiveness as well as their econometric modelling, national political institutions. implications for fundamental our researchers used data Quantifying such effects rights and freedoms. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 23

GDP cost of terrorism in the EU-28 (2004–2016)

Cost (€million) <100 101–1,000 1,001–10,000 >10,001

UK €43.7 billion Germany €19.2 billion

France €43 billion

Spain €40.8 billion Greece €10.4 billion

We estimate that the EU lost approximately €180 billion in GDP terms due to terrorism between 2004 and 2016

Marco Hafner is a senior economist at RAND Europe 24 |

Research Excellence Framework

The impact of research from identify quantitative indicators literature searches, text mining UK universities is assessed of impact within 2014 REF and qualitative analysis to every few years to determine impact case studies, and identify suitable indicators. We future funding allocations provide guidance on how to then devised a style guide and from government, using standardise these for potential guidance on specific indicators the Research Excellence use in the 2021 REF process. to help universities prepare their Framework (REF). Research case studies and enable more England asked RAND Europe to We adopted a mixed-methods accurate analysis of impact data. approach using interviews, Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 25

Future Combat Air Strategy

Airpower plays an essential support the development of a operational advantage, freedom role in deterring and countering new UK Combat Air Strategy of action, international influence, security threats in a fast- to mark the centenary of the collaboration and economic changing, uncertain world. Royal Air Force, RAND Europe prosperity, along with the Many European nations face was commissioned to conduct implications of different options upcoming decisions on how a number of studies in 2018 for the future of the sector. airpower will be delivered in considering the future of RAND Europe’s analysis was future, as existing fleets of airpower out to 2040+. This cited directly in the new Combat combat aircraft – many of research has helped the UK Air Strategy and described by them designed in the 1980s Ministry of Defence (MOD) the MOD’s Director of Strategic and 1990s – approach the end to explore the ‘national value’ Programmes as ‘pivotal’ in of their operational lives. To of combat air in terms of helping inform its development.

Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 27

European defence matters

The European Defence Agency the Capability Development information-sharing tools, rapid (EDA) facilitates collaboration Plan, which outlines the military decision making, effective among participating EU capabilities that participating civil–military cooperation and member states and supports Member States (pMS) will high levels of force mobility. them in improving their defence need in 2035 and beyond. The However, while conventional capabilities. The EDA also request for support came at a assets will remain important, takes a close interest in the particularly important time, with the need for cyberspace sustainability of the European the EU having recently adopted capabilities is expected to research and technology and a more assertive role in the increase. We examined the defence industrial landscape. defence realm, as illustrated ability of the European defence by the new EU Global Strategy industrial base to integrate and RAND Europe has regularly and the launch of the European leverage important enabling been commissioned by the Defence Fund (EDF). technologies, finding scope for EDA to provide evidence-based more effective collaboration analysis to support strategic We employed a suite of across sectors, industries decision making on key topics. methods to think systematically and technologies. R&D Three recent projects illustrate about future needs, including programmes already exist for the range and depth of our scenario development, many of the identified enabling work. strategic exercises, technology technologies, but tend not horizon-scanning and capability to be coordinated between Identifying future capabilities. analysis. The work underlined Over the past 18 months, RAND different EDA pMS. Our analysis the continuing relevance also showed that much of the Europe has been working with of key current capabilities, the EDA to help them revise investment and initiative in such as efficient and secure enabling technologies currently 28 |

originates from the civilian – Cooperating on armoured rather than defence – sector. vehicles. In support of its remit to identify and promote areas Expanding cyber defence. of collaboration, the EDA asked Complementing this broader RAND Europe to examine work on future capabilities, the scope for collaboration RAND Europe conducted a to develop and support three landscaping study of EU military types of armoured vehicles cyber defence capabilities through their full life cycle: in 2018. Building on a 2012 tracked, wheeled and protected stocktake produced by a RAND transport vehicles. Despite We found Europe-led consortium, the the inevitable challenges of study considered the current aligning requirements and scope for landscape of cyber defence specifications among European more effective capabilities, while assessing countries, we found that the the impact of EDA and wider collaboration current landscape offers EU activities since 2012. The several opportunities for greater across sectors, findings will inform emerging cooperation across vehicle industries and cyber defence policies and fleets, and across procurement actions at both EU and pMS and development programmes. technologies levels over the short and The study identified five medium terms. Furthermore, potential collaboration models the EDA asked RAND Europe that could offer financial, to examine the cybersecurity operational and strategic labour market to identify good benefits compared with purely practice in recruiting and national efforts. retaining cyber professionals. This market is highly competitive The political and economic in Europe with a shortfall of context for European defence people with necessary skills. cooperation is changing rapidly, We identified good practice and the EDA will continue to initiatives spanning a range of play an important strategic role countries and sectors which supporting pMS to adapt and were designed to enhance the build their capabilities. RAND Alexandra Hall leads RAND attractiveness of a career in Europe’s research is helping to Europe’s research on defence, defence for individuals with inform key EDA policies in these security and infrastructure these hotly contested skills. uncertain times. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 29

Collaboration models for armoured vehicles

Pooling and sharing of spare parts — jointly managed pool of spare parts, 1 from which the fleets of participating countries can be provisioned

Joint maintenance, repair and 2 overhaul (MRO) — complete overhaul of the vehicle performed at a fixed multinational facility

Joint modular upgrade — joint development and procurement 3 of a common system upgrade for the same vehicle or vehicle type

Joint off-the-shelf procurement — joint purchase of a commercially 4 available armoured vehicle with little or no modification to meet national-level requirements from the same industry supplier in a single, collaborative order

Joint platform development — joint design, prototyping, testing and 5 production of a new armoured vehicle platform

Benefits of multinational Challenges associated with developing and collaboration may include cost implementing multinational collaboration in savings for each participating armoured vehicles include difficulties in agreeing on country, due to increased economies requirements and configurations of vehicles, aligning of scale, shared investments and MRO approaches and timelines, and divergent legal streamlined processes. It may frameworks and economic interests. Importantly, also improve interoperability, trust collaboration may require relatively close armoured and standardisation and provide vehicle capability integration and an acceptance of opportunities for knowledge sharing at least some level of strategic dependence by the and learning. participating countries. 30 |

Collaborating to improve healthcare

Like other healthcare systems asset for the NHS that has carers and the wider public around the world, the UK’s widespread practical relevance. can be mobilised to improve National Health Service (NHS) the quality and scale of is trying to meet the challenge RAND Europe is a key research evidence that informs of providing consistent high- partner in THIS Institute. Led service delivery. quality and safe care while by Dr Sonja Marjanovic, we are • Good practice for patient simultaneously meeting growing working with colleagues at THIS and public involvement demand with increasingly Institute on both rapid response and healthcare staff constrained resources. Much and long-term projects to help involvement with research time and effort has been address pressing challenges examines the most effective invested in quality improvement facing the healthcare system. mechanisms for involving efforts, but very often these are Teams of RAND Europe experts NHS staff, patients and the small, local projects that are are collaborating with academic public in healthcare research difficult to scale. Without better researchers, NHS staff and in meaningful ways. evidence, improvement initiatives patients to help generate may be at risk of failing to deliver practical, actionable evidence • Contributing to safe on their goals, producing limited that can support sustainable maternity care examines patient benefit or wasting scarce improvements in healthcare the diversity of social, resources. service provision, as well as cultural and organisational long-term patient benefit. We factors that need to be The Healthcare Improvement also seek to contribute to in place to support safe Studies Institute (THIS Institute), methodological innovation in maternity care, and how recently established at the improvement research. they can be embedded in University of Cambridge and led the healthcare system. by Professor Mary Dixon-Woods, Our work for THIS Institute presents a unique opportunity spans a diverse range of topics. • Examining governance to strengthen the evidence base Some examples include: and ethics approval on how to improve healthcare processes for improvement delivery, quality and safety, • The use of citizen science evaluations seeks to patient experience and patient and crowdsourcing develop a framework that outcomes. Funded as a ten- methods in improvement organisations can use year initiative by a leading UK research explores how the to ensure a safe, ethical independent charity, the Health experience and knowledge and efficient governance Foundation, THIS Institute aims of a large and diverse pool process for evaluating to create a large-scale scientific of healthcare staff, patients, improvement interventions. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 31 Creating the new Silk Road Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 33

The Silk Road trade route, transport connectivity might travelled by Marco Polo in have on multilateral trade and the thirteenth century, linked economic growth in countries the two great civilisations of and regions along the BRI. We China in the east and Rome found a positive and statistically in the west. Goods and ideas significant relationship were carried for thousands between improving transport of miles in both directions. infrastructure and connectivity China’s Belt and Road Initiative and growing bilateral trade. (BRI) is an effort to create Having a rail connection jointly built trade routes that between trading partners has emulate the ancient Silk Road the largest impact on trade, by land and sea and promote boosting total exports in the Having a rail regional cooperation across BRI region by 2.8 per cent. This Asia, Europe and Africa. The is followed by improvements connection between BRI is a colossal project that in road density and transport trading partners has will encompass 4.4 billion service quality. the largest impact people (70 per cent of the world population) and 62 per cent Given the massive level of on trade of world GDP (around US$21 investment proposed in BRI trillion). transport infrastructure, total trade volumes could increase So what are the challenges to both inside the BRI region and achieving China’s BRI dream? in countries outside it, including One vital issue is connectivity. those in the EU (assuming the The BRI region suffers from less relationship is causal). The developed infrastructure than benefits could be even greater other regions which makes it if countries and regions along harder to develop strong trading the BRI route can coordinate links. RAND Europe researchers their development plans so set out to measure the impact policies and infrastructure Hui Lu is a senior analyst and was that greater multimodal implementation are compatible. the research lead for this study 34 | Incentives to exercise

Should exercise be its own reward? The benefits of physical activity are well known, including a lower risk of hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and improved mental health. Yet roughly one third of the global adult population does less physical activity than the minimum recommended by the World Health Organization. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 35

The results of a multi-country Africa, we found that members RAND Europe study suggest who took up the Apple Watch that a certain type of financial benefit increased their tracked reward may be more effective activity levels by about 34 per than other incentives in cent on average, leading to an motivating people to boost their additional 4.8 days of activity activity levels. per month. This is compared to the Vitality members who only RAND Europe was participated in the Vitality Active commissioned by health Rewards gain-framed incentive insurance group Discovery to programme. compare the impact of its two incentive schemes: a ‘gain- The study also looked at framed’ approach that tracked exercise intensity, with activity activity levels and awarded points categorised as light, standard to members when they reached or advanced intensity. We certain thresholds (the Vitality found that as well as activity Active Rewards programme), levels rising overall, people also versus a ‘loss-framed’ two-year increased the amount of more scheme that allowed members intense exercise they did. The to buy an Apple Watch at a positive associations between 34% discounted upfront price. How the benefit and physical activity much they then had to pay back also persisted over time (at least increase in per month depended on their over the 24-month repayment monthly levels of exercise (Vitality period for the Apple Watch). activity levels Active Rewards with Apple Watch benefit). Provided their These findings suggest that for those exercise levels were high enough, offering financial incentives members would not have to pay may be a particularly effective members who back the full cost of their fitness way to tackle inactivity and tracker. sedentary lifestyles. This could took up the have relevance when designing Using data from 422,643 and promoting future health Apple Watch Vitality programme members programmes to encourage across the UK, US and South people to be more active. benefit 36 |

Refreshing our values

In 2018, RAND Europe staff organisational decisions and Europe a good place to work to took a fresh look at our values behaviours. Our Values Charter produce high-quality research to to ensure they convey what we reflects what our work and benefit others. believe to be the most important organisation stand for, and principles to guide and inspire the qualities that make RAND

QUALITY We pursue excellence • We apply the most rigorous standards to our work • We take a holistic view of the problem-solving landscape • We use innovative, multi-disciplinary approaches to yield fresh perspectives

OBJECTIVITY We are independent and impartial • We provide unbiased analysis and insights • We apply constructive, critical thinking to the challenges we face • We find and follow the best evidence wherever it leads COLLABORATION We are stronger through the power of partnerships • We work as a team to achieve common goals, taking and sharing responsibility for success • We are collegial: we combine our strengths and support one another • We value diversity, and we seek out and respect the contributions of others SERVICE We serve the public good and those with whom we work • We strive to have impact and make a difference to society and to our clients • We honour our commitments to the organisation and one another • We act with integrity LEARNING We always look for better ways to do things • We use knowledge and insight to achieve better outcomes • We continuously improve and learn from our experience • We combine curiosity with an entrepreneurial outlook

Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 39

Events in 2018

DISCUSSING TRUTH DECAY IN We returned to this topic in Government’s commitment to LONDON AND BRUSSELS May for the 10th anniversary use research and innovation to The RAND Corporation is celebration of our Brussels address society’s challenges. conducting insightful research office, when a high-level panel, representing policy, media and In October, RAND Europe on ‘Truth Decay’ – a growing researchers Stijn Hoorens and disregard for facts and the legal perspectives, discussed the Truth Decay phenomenon Giacomo Persi Paoli kicked off erosion of evidence in public Cambridge University’s 2018 debate – and what it means for and its implications in Europe. Constantijn van Oranje, the Festival of Ideas with their American political and public lecture, ‘Shining a Light on the discourse. first head of RAND Europe’s Brussels Office, moderated the Dark Web’. They highlighted At our annual London reception panel. Participants agreed that the size and scope of a hidden in January, Michael D. Rich, no silver bullet exists to solve part of the internet that allows President and CEO of the RAND the problem, and that providers anonymous users to pursue Corporation, and co-author and consumers of information illegal activities, such as selling of the research, shared his within all sectors must be drugs and weapons. thoughts and findings on Truth equally responsible for taking At the 2018 lecture of the Decay with guests. He stressed action to reverse the decay. Cambridge Centre for Health that the concept threatens EXPLORING IDEAS IN CAMBRIDGE Services Research, Professor democracies in Europe as Trish Greenhalgh, a leading well as in the US, and is driven Professor Jennifer Rubin, academic in primary health by factors such as cognitive executive chair of the Economic care, examined the state of bias, political polarisation, and Social Research Council patient and public involvement the changing information and previous Executive Vice in research in the UK. CCHSR environment and lagging President at RAND Europe, spoke is a collaboration between the education systems. at our annual summer reception University of Cambridge and in Cambridge about the UK RAND Europe. 40 |

Our Council of Advisors

The members of our Council Paul Adamson OBE Susan Hitch of Advisors bring a diversity Partner and Chairman, Forum Director of International of experience and depth of Europe; Editor-in-Chief, E!Sharp Relationships, The Listen Charity knowledge that helps enrich our work and extend our impact. László Andor Michael Hoffman Their achievements and personal Former Commissioner for Chairman, Hoffman distinctions often cut across Employment, Social Affairs & Ventures Limited Inclusion, European Union different fields and sectors. Professor David Howarth This year we appointed three Dawn Austwick Professor of Law and Public new members who add yet Chief Executive, The National Policy, University of Cambridge Lottery Community Fund more depth and breadth to the Gunvor Kronman Council. Dawn Austwick is Chief Carl Bildt Chief Executive Officer, Executive of The National Lottery Former Prime Minister, Hanasaari, the Swedish-Finnish Community Fund and previously Former Minister for Foreign Cultural Centre headed the Esmée Fairbairn Affairs, Sweden Foundation, a charity dedicated Sir Tom Phillips KCMG to improving lives and building Professor Dame Carol Black Director, Centre for the Study vibrant communities. Sir Tom DBE FRCP FMedSci of Modern Slavery, St Mary’s Phillips KCMG is Director of the Principal, Newnham College, University Centre for the Study of Modern University of Cambridge Slavery at St Mary’s University Dr Gill Samuels CBE Jessica Cecil in the UK and a former senior Member, Council of University Director, BBC Online Project British diplomat. As Director of College London Trustee, Science Museum the BBC Online Project, Jessica Philippa Foster Back CBE Cecil leads the BBC’s digital Director, Institute of Business Professor Sir Gregory Winter services. She has served in Ethics CBE FRS a variety of roles during her Master, Trinity College, distinguished career at the BBC. Máire Geoghegan-Quinn University of Cambridge Former Commissioner for MEMBERS SERVING IN Research, Innovation and Emeritus 2018/2019 Science, European Commission Sir John Boyd KCMG Michael D. Rich (Chairman) Former Chairman, Asia House Florian von Heintze President and Chief Executive and Former Ambassador to Deputy Editor-in-Chief, BILD Officer, RAND Corporation Japan

PRIVATE SECTOR: Accent | AIA Group | Atkins | Berenschot

Group | Catalyze Ltd | DAMVAD Analytics | Discovery | European Federation of

VitalityHealth | Which? | WSP Group

42 |

Clients and collaborators

Deepening our expertise

Establishing a new scenarios, global food shortages • Science, technology & research centre and anti-microbial resistance. innovation Methodologies and tools exist • Transport Our current research agenda that can help organisations • Wellbeing in the workplace narrow uncertainty about The multidisciplinary nature of policymaking in the future. RAND Europe’s research and We employ robust and rigorous RAND Europe established staff ensures innovative, high- methods and capabilities, a Centre for Futures and quality work across a vast range backed up by peer review, to Foresight Studies (CFFS) to use of policy areas: ensure the integrity of all our research, including: futures and foresight techniques • Defence & security to help governments and others • Drugs, policing & criminal • Choice modelling & to visualise a range of different justice behavioural research possible futures and reduce the risk of decision making. • Education • Economics & econometrics RAND Europe has applied these • Employment, social • Evaluation for better methods to address a wide inclusion, population & performance range of policy challenges, migration • Gaming from future defence capability • Health & healthcare • Randomised controlled requirements, to future transport • International development trials

Through the CFFS, we combine the depth of our methodological expertise in futures techniques with the breadth of our subject matter expertise in all policy domains

Giacomo Persi Paoli leads the Centre for Futures and Foresight Studies at RAND Europe To view more about the research featured in Spotlight please visit: www.randeurope.org/spotlight2018-2019

Image credits Spotlight team:

Jo Anthony Photography De Ribaucourt Photography Jessica Plumridge p. 9, p. 16, p. 23, p. 28, p. 37, p. 38 Lynne Saylor p. 39, p. 41 Lizzy Iredale Lynette Gilbert Diane Baldwin p. 5 (Business Literacy) p. 1 Jack Jakins Lucy Rose Cartwright p. 33, p. 37 The paper used in this Cover, pp. 2–4, pp. 6–8, publication is FSC® Certified p. 10, pp. 13–15, pp. 17–18, Matthew Kirkland pp. 24–26, p. 29, pp. 31–32, p. 41 p. 34 Ralitza Soultanova Courtesy, Centre for the Study p. 44 of Modern Slavery Andy Tyler p. 41 p. 38

Courtesy, The National Lottery www.domininkas.com Community Fund p. 38 p. 41

Courtesy, Newnham College, University of Cambridge p. 41 OUR MISSION CP-531(2018) RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis.

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