Spotlight 2018-2019
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SPOTLIGHT 2018–2019 Introduction RAND Europe’s long-standing well as developing areas of Through such collaborations, we commitment to high-quality expertise that demonstrate these learn from experience and use research and objective relationships. Take, for example, the insights gained to achieve analysis remains a beacon our research collaboration better outcomes. through continued political with the Policy Institute at and economic uncertainty in King’s College London and the Behind our efforts lies RAND’s Europe and worldwide, helping University of Cambridge on a mission to help improve policy policymakers cut through timely study that re-examines the and decision making through complexity and base decisions British people’s preferences on research and analysis. We on evidence. With offices Brexit. Or take the partnership, refreshed our values in 2018 in Cambridge and Brussels, again with the University of to reaffirm those qualities that we are well placed to find Cambridge, to provide research we believe to be the essence solutions to critical, cross- and analysis for The Health of our organisation – Quality, cutting issues in a post-Brexit Improvement Studies Institute Objectivity, Collaboration, Service world. Our work is enriched by (THIS Institute). In addition, our and Learning – which we strive our constructive linkages with education practice has been to apply in everything we do. clients, collaborators, RAND enhanced by strong linkages Thank you for your interest Corporation colleagues and the with RAND Education and Labor, and support. communities we strive to serve deepening our interdisciplinary through our research. capability. We’ve also strengthened our client base, for This year’s Spotlight highlights example helping the European a selection of new research Parliament work through projects and initiatives as complex policy challenges. Hans Pung, President 2 | Table of contents Have the British people’s Expanding horizons preferences on Brexit 4 for researchers changed 14 months on? 18 Social media in Africa: Kicking off: Preventing 8 A double-edged sword 20 violence in 2022 Ammonia: Why the The cost of terrorism 10 big stink? 22 in Europe EPIC ways to tackle Research Excellence 12 childhood deprivation 24 Framework 16 Focusing on education 25 Future Combat Air Strategy Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 3 26 European defence matters 38 Events in 2018 Collaborating to Our Council of Advisors 30 improve healthcare 40 32 Creating the new Silk Road 42 Clients and collaborators 34 Incentives to exercise 44 Deepening our expertise 36 Refreshing our values Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 5 Have the British people’s preferences on Brexit changed 14 months on? Having voted to leave the EU in the 2016 EU referendum, two British people years on Britain still finds itself in a volatile and unpredictable reject a no-deal environment. Policymakers on both sides of the British Parliament continue to argue about the future that Britons desire in a post- option even more EU era. However, the referendum itself told us very little about firmly in 2018 people’s preferences for Britain’s future relationship with Europe. than they did in 2017 This lack of clarity on what post-Brexit world. Following relationship British people really the success of that pioneering wanted with Europe was the work, we repeated the study in basis for an innovative study in 2018 to see whether the political 2017 by RAND Europe, the Policy discourse and events of the Institute at King’s College London previous year had an impact on and the University of Cambridge. people’s views and priorities. The That proof-of-concept study result? We find that British people used ‘stated preference discrete reject a no-deal option even more choice experiments’, a Nobel- firmly in 2018 than they did in prize winning methodology, 2017, with the strongest single to quantify the British public’s preference being for a ‘Norway- Charlene Rohr specialises in choice preferences for Britain’s like’ deal that retains access to modelling and was the RAND relationship with the EU in a the Single Market. Europe research lead for this study 6 | The experiments asked a asked to assess the attributes than remaining in the EU (25%), representative sample of and indicate which choice they being in the Customs Union the general public to choose would prefer. A crucial aspect to (11%) or a no-deal Brexit (22%). between different UK–EU the experiment was that people relationship options, using had to make trade-offs – it is An important counter-finding, various combinations of seven not possible to have all these however, was that while most attributes: potentially desirable attributes of the public have shifted to in one package. Another prefer a ‘softer’ Brexit, support • Freedom of movement for important aspect was the idea for ‘harder’ Brexit options holidays of reciprocity: constraints on has grown among voters • Freedom of movement for freedom of movement for EU with no formal educational work nationals would also apply to qualifications. Compared with • Contribution to the EU budget UK nationals. others, this group places less value on freedom of movement • The ability to make free trade Since 80 per cent of the people and more on sovereignty to deals with countries outside in the 2018 sample were also allow the UK to make its own the EU involved in the 2017 study, we laws. • Access to the Single Market were able to measure how their for goods preferences had changed. The As Spotlight goes to print, the • Access to the Single Market option most valued in the 2018 outcome of the Brexit debate for services study was one that resembles remains uncertain. A ‘Norway- like’ option is increasingly • Law-making sovereignty. membership of the European Economic Area (similar to a mentioned in news reports of The options avoided the use Norway-like deal). This option UK political discourse. That of labels, such as Norway, was chosen by 43 per cent of option, if pursued, would reflect Canada-plus, remain or ‘no deal’. the sample, up from 38 per cent what our study shows many Instead people were simply in 2017. It was more popular British people would prefer. Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 7 Based on surveys of almost 1,000 members of the British public, who were asked to trade on different aspects of a possible agreement to exit the EU, we find that: The British public still want a close relationship 1 with the EU, with the most preferred option resembling membership of the EEA. There has been a softening of the type of relationship that 2 Britons want with the EU as well as an increase in the number of people who want to remain in the EU. Education level is important in 3 explaining the continued polarisation of views on the way forward for Brexit. The value British people place on the proposals set 4 out in the Chequers plan is difficult to quantify due to its lack of clarity on key issues of concern. Should there be another referendum, 5 the options offered in a vote will significantly influence the outcome. 8 | Social media in Africa A double-edged sword The spread of social media and Boko Haram. Drawing on shutdowns on mainstream in Africa has brought many primary Twitter data analysis, social media sites. While the economic and political benefits. our findings confirmed that use of specific online channels It has also equipped terrorist all three terrorist groups use differs across groups, we found groups with a low-cost tool for social media and other online that the role of social media radicalisation and recruitment. platforms to broadcast their in the radicalisation process messages, inspire followers is often complemented by the The United Nations and recruit new fighters. Of ‘offline’ influences of family and Development Programme the three, ISIL has the most peer networks. (UNDP) commissioned RAND advanced online strategy Europe to explore social media and uses the widest range The governments of the use and online radicalisation of platforms. The evidence countries studied – Cameroon, in seven African countries, suggests that these groups Chad, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, focusing on three of the most are increasingly shifting Sudan and Uganda – are only lethal Islamist militant groups recruitment activities to private now starting to recognise worldwide: ISIL, al-Shabaab channels following account and respond to the issue of Spotlight on 2018–2019 | 9 Focus countries and terrorist groups Chad Boko Haram, ISIL Sudan Al-Shabaab, ISIL Somalia Al-Shabaab, ISIL Nigeria Boko Haram, ISIL Cameroon ISIL, al-Shabaab Boko Haram, ISIL and Boko Haram Kenya all use social Al-Shabaab, ISIL media and other Uganda Al-Shabaab, ISIL online platforms to broadcast their messages, inspire online radicalisation. Bespoke The study was launched at followers and recruit national strategies will be UNDP’s Maendeleo Policy needed to tackle it, along with Forum in Ethiopia in November new fighters counter-online-radicalisation 2018, an event attended by UN programmes tailored to local representatives, African Union contexts. Trusted institutional members and regional experts. accounts are also important to The work has also been featured share reliable news and counter in a range of media outlets damaging extremist content. and highlighted by the World Finally, individual governments Economic Forum. Furthermore, should consider sharing informed by our study, the lessons on ‘what works’ in UNDP is now developing a countering online radicalisation, communication toolkit for at national, regional and counter-extremism practitioners Kate Cox is a senior international levels. in the Horn of Africa. analyst at RAND Europe 10 | Ammonia Why the big stink? While levels of other air and slurry, and by applying and human health, including pollutants have declined, manmade chemical fertilisers. potential costs to the economy, ammonia emissions in the UK in collaboration with and funded have been rising since 2013.