MO’ASHER The Official Sales Price Index for the Emirate of APRIL 2021 MO’ASHER MO’ASHER DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX The Official Sales Price Index Key Findings “We continue to see a thriving and dynamic for the residential market with the second quarter starting • April 2021 had 4,832 Sales transactions worth AED off strong.” APRIL 2021 10.98 billion • Off-plan sales in April is the highest in 14 months • 4.2 percent month-on-month increase in overall transactions • 69% apartments and 31% villa/townhouses Lynnette Abad Director, Research and Data • 60% secondary/ready and 40% off-plan Property Finder Group

Mo’asher Results “ April 2021 had the highest total sales transaction value since March 2017 in excess of AED10.98 • Overall monthly Index recorded 1.072 and an index billion. This is the highest value of property price of AED 1,002,667 transactions in four years.” • Apartments monthly Index recorded 1.097 and an index price of AED 912,404 • Villas/Townhouses monthly Index recorded 0.992 and an index price of AED 1,768,908 Latifa Ibrahim Ahmed Senior Director of Real Estate Studies & Research Dept Dubai Land Department

April 2021 had the highest total sales transaction value April increased by 12.9 percent, the highest in 14 months since March 2017 in excess of AED10.98 billion. This is the and the secondary/ready property transactions decreased for highest value of property transactions in four years. April the first time in 11 months by 0.92 percent. CONTENTS 2021 had 4,382 transactions worth AED 10.98 billion, 4.2 percent more than March 2021 in terms of volume and 0.6 Since the start of the pandemic, we have seen apartment MO’ASHER - DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX percent more in terms of value. This brings the year to April prices decline. This is partially due to more affordable 3 total to 16,577 transactions worth AED 36.12 billion. housing coming into the market, more supply of apartments completed and an increase in demand shifting to villa/ DUBAI SALES PRICE INDEX‭ - MONTHLY In April, 70 percent of the total transactions were up to AED townhouses. 4 2M, while 23 percent were between AED 2M to 5M, four percent were between AED 5M to 10M and 3 percent above In the villas/townhouses sector, 18.5 percent of all sales METHODOLOGY 6 AED 10M. in April 2021 took place in , followed by (10.3 percent), Dubai Hills Estate Interestingly, one of the major trends seen in April was (9.4 percent), Rukan (5 percent) and (4.9 in Mohammed bin Rashid City where we saw most percent). Looking at apartments, 8.5 percent of all sales transactions in a single community recorded. Followed transactions took place in followed by by Village Circle, accounting for 5.8 percent Jumeirah Village Circle (8.4 percent), of all transactions and Dubai Marina with 5.6 percent of (7.6 percent), (7.3 percent) and Business all transactions. In addition, , which has Bay (5.4 percent) according to data from Property Finder. dominated the top two spots for the most number of monthly sales in a community for the past year, fell from According to proprietary Property Finder demand data, 7.2 percent of total transactions in a single month to 3.5 the top areas of interest in terms of searches for villas/ percent. Falling from number one on the ranking to number townhouses in April 2021 were Dubai Hills Estate, Arabian 10. Ranches, , Mohamed bin Rashid City and Damac Hills. As for apartments for the same period, the top In April 2021, 60 percent of sales transactions were for areas of interest were Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Palm secondary/ready properties and 40 percent were for off-plan Jumeirah, Business Bay and Jumeirah Village Circle. properties. When we look at the volume of transactions, the off-plan market transacted 1,934 properties worth a total of AED 3.09 billion and the secondary market transacted 2,898 properties worth a total of AED 7.89 billion. Comparing this to March 2021, the number of off-plan sales transactions in MO’ASHER 3 DUBAI SALES PRICE INDEX MONTHLY

DUBAI OVERALL INDEX

1.4 INDEX VALUE April 2021 DUBAI OVERALL MONTHLY INDEX 1.2 1.072 In April 2021 the overall monthly Index recorded 1.072 and an index price of AED 1,002,667.

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0.8 Month-on-Month 0.6 - 1.20%

0.4 3 Month Change - 0.83% INDEX NUMBER

0.2 6 Month Change - 1.83%

0 Apr-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Dec-12 Fe b-13 Dec-13 Fe b-14 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Dec-20 Fe b-21 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20

Year - Months Index base January 2012

DUBAI APARTMENTS INDEX 1.6 INDEX VALUE DUBAI APARTMENTS MONTHLY INDEX 1.4 APRIL 2021 1.097 In April 2021 the Apartments monthly Index recorded 1.097 and an index price of AED 912,404. 1.2

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0.8 Month-on-Month - 2.83% 0.6

0.4 - 2.66% INDEX NUMBER 3 Month Change

0.2 6 Month Change - 4.02% 0 Apr-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Dec-12 Fe b-13 Dec-13 Fe b-14 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Dec-20 Fe b-21 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20

Year - Months Index base January 2012

DUBAI VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES INDEX 1.6 DUBAI VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES MONTHLY INDEX 1.4 INDEX VALUE In April 2021 the villas/townhouses monthly Index recorded 0.992 and an index price of APRIL 1.2 0.992 AED 1,768,908.

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0.8 Month-on-Month + 1.02% 0.6 INDEX NUMBER 0.4 3 Month Change + 2.48%

0.2 6 Month Change + 0.10% 0 Apr-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Dec-12 Fe b-13 Dec-13 Fe b-14 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Dec-20 Fe b-21 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20

Year - Months Index base January 2012

MO’ASHER 5 LASPEREYES The Laspeyres method imputes period t prices for the properties belonging to the base period sample S(0), evaluated at base period characteristics to control for quality changes. It is also known as a base period weighted index, and it provides a meaningful comparison over time. It helps answer the following question: what would be the relative price today of a real estate unit that was typically offered for sale in the base month?

The hedonic imputation Laspeyres index is an example of a single imputation index in which the observed prices are left unchanged. Using the Laspeyre method, assuming that the log-linear hedonic model holds true for all t periods, the quality-adjusted price in period t is defined as:

METHODOLOGY House price indices serve as important guides that consumers, financial institutions, governments and investors look to in order to understand the market movements of a particular city or country’s housing market. An index will allow one to show the value of an asset over time by tracking its performance. An index is created by selecting PAASCHE a base year in a data set and then indexing that number as 100, which The Paasche method imputes base period prices for the properties is the natural base for what all other price points will be measured belonging to the period t sample S(t) , evaluated at period t against. When an index is updated monthly it will produce an updated characteristics. It is also known as a current period weighted index, average house price as well as the % changes in price for a given time and reflects current trends. It helps answer the following question: period such as the last three months, six months or twelve months. what is the price of a typical real estate unit today relative to the price of the same unit in the base month? Mo’asher will be created using a hedonic regression model, which is a model that is based on attributes such as view, property size, number The hedonic imputation Paasche index is an example of a single of bedrooms and other important features in a property that have an imputation index in which the observed prices are left unchanged. impact on its value. These methods utilize information on the relevant Assuming that the log-linear hedonic model holds true for all t periods, property characteristics to estimate quality-adjusted price indices the quality-adjusted price Paasche index is defined as: using regression techniques, though it may prove difficult to sufficient control for location. One of the challenges of building a property price index is to isolate the effect of the properties price change over time. Nevertheless, this is challenging because the quality mix in the real estate market is diverse. The characteristics of every property is unique, and it is hard to keep track of individual property features because they continue to be upgraded or modified without informing the authorities. FISHER The hedonic double imputation Fisher index is found by taking the geometric mean of the Laspeyres Price Index and the Paasche Price HEDONIC IMPUTATION INDEX Index. It is deemed the ideal index as it corrects the positive price bias Hedonic imputation indices use predicted prices, evaluated at fixed in the Laspeyres Price Index and the negative price bias in the Paasche characteristics, based on the hedonic regressions for all time periods. Price Index. In doing so, it is possible to evaluate the period t prices of properties sold in period 0. There are multiple imputation techniques, but three Assuming that the log-linear hedonic model holds true for all t periods, common ones are: Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher. the Fisher Price Index is defined as:

The Dubai House Price Indices are calculated using the hedonic double imputation Fisher index.

MO’ASHER 7 Disclaimer At present, we do not provide any accuracy metrics, and although all due care and statistical rigour is taken with the index generation, we do not claim any forecast accuracy. Property Finder and the Dubai Land Department reserve the right to adjust methodologies at any given time, and these changes will be published with appropriate user notes. Users seeking financial guidance from the DHPI do so at their own risk and should note that some external macroeconomic features will not be captured in the model.

The DHPI should not be used for any commercial purposes, including pricing and investment decision making or performance measurement.

You can download a copy of the index from www.datafinder.ae

RESEARCH

Lynnette Abad Mahmoud Ahmed Farghally

Director Research and Studies Specialist Research and Data Department of Real-Estate Studies and Research Property Finder Dubai Land Department [email protected] [email protected]

MARKETING

Faisal Zaidi Manal Mahmoud Haroun

Head of Marketing Corporate Communication Officer Research and Data Dubai Land Department Property Finder [email protected] [email protected]

Dubai Land Department, Deira, Bani Yas Road, P.O.Box: Dubai 1166, Dubai, UAE

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