Required Report: Required - Public Distribution Date: June 15, 2021

Report Number: BM2021-0022

Report Name: Rice Trade - Monthly

Country: Burma - Union of

Post: Rangoon

Report Category: Grain and Feed

Prepared By: FAS Rangoon

Approved By: Eric Mullis

Report Highlights:

Burma’s rice exports in June are forecast lower due to the continued closure of several check points along the Burma-China border and lower demand from EU countries. Overall rice exports in April and May, however, increased with rice exports to Bangladesh, China, and The Philippines. The continued devaluation of the Myanmar Kyats and continued purchases by exporters will likely result in higher domestic wholesale prices for both types of rice.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY

Production

The Burmese Department of Agriculture1 estimates that MY2021/222 main rice crop (monsoon rice) acreage will be 6.1 million hectares (MHa). More than 30,000 Ha were planted as of June 8, mainly in the lower part of the country. The MY2020/21 second rice crop acreage was more than 0.92 MHa, and as of early June, rice farmers had harvested 88 percent of the acreage of the MY2020/21 second rice crop.

Non-border Trade

Burma’s official rice and broken rice exports in May are forecast higher with the shipping of contracted rice to Bangladesh and the depreciation of the Myanmar Kyats against the U.S. dollar (See Figure 1). Burma agreed to export 100,000 MT of high-quality long grain Emata to Bangladesh under an MOU. The first shipment was in late April (See Table 2) and the last shipment was loaded in early June under the MOU. Burma exported rice in bulk to Bangladesh due to a shortage of shipping containers. Burma’s rice exports in June, however, are forecast lower due to shipping container shortages, higher shipping costs, transaction disruptions, exchange rate fluctuations, and the anticipation of less demand from EU countries due to the current unstable situation in Burma. In April, Burma’s official rice export increased due to more rice export to Bangladesh, China and Philippines and increased broken rice to Belgium (See Table 2).

The data for the rice exports by type were updated in Table 1 and 2 for March and April, respectively, but the official numbers for May were not available at the time of reporting. Post will include May’s export figures in next report.

Figure 1. Currency Exchange Rate in Burma (MMK/US$) 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300

1,250

1-Jun-21 3-Jun-21 5-Jun-21 7-Jun-21

2-Apr-21 4-Apr-21 6-Apr-21 8-Apr-21

1-Mar-21 3-Mar-21 5-Mar-21 7-Mar-21 9-Mar-21

2-May-21 4-May-21 6-May-21 8-May-21

10-Apr-21 12-Apr-21 14-Apr-21 16-Apr-21 18-Apr-21 20-Apr-21 22-Apr-21 24-Apr-21 26-Apr-21 28-Apr-21 30-Apr-21

11-Mar-21 13-Mar-21 15-Mar-21 17-Mar-21 19-Mar-21 21-Mar-21 23-Mar-21 25-Mar-21 27-Mar-21 29-Mar-21 31-Mar-21

12-May-21 14-May-21 16-May-21 18-May-21 20-May-21 22-May-21 24-May-21 26-May-21 28-May-21 30-May-21 10-May-21 Source: Central Bank of Myanmar

1 The Burmese Department of Agriculture estimates rice production based on a crop year from April to March. 2 The main crop production (monsoon rice) is the rice that starts production in the first year of USDA’s two-year marketing year.

Table 1: Burma’s Rice Export by Type in March 2021 (Metric Tons) Parboiled Broken Emata Emata Ngasein Ngasein Glutinous Rice Destination Parboiled Brown Pawsan Rice Total 5-20% 25% 5-20% 25% Rice Total Rice Total Belgium 250 250 4,866 5,116 Czech Republic 600 600 600 China 13,725 5,000 1000 19725 4,625 24,350 Croatia 250 250 250 Estonia 125 75 200 200 Germany 200 200 200 Hungary 250 250 250 Hong Kong 335 335 335 Italy 250 250 250 Lebanon 124 124 124 Lithuania 600 600 600 Netherlands 150 150 875 1,025 Philippines 500 1,020 1520 1,520 Poland 1,205 750 1955 225 2,180 Singapore 125 24 149 150 299 Slovenia 250 250 50 300 Spain 500 250 925 1675 1,675 Trinidad and Tobago 500 500 500 Vietnams 250 250 250 Total 1,899 400 16,755 2,395 6,425 335 1,000 24 29,233 10,791 40,024 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Custom Data

Table 2: Burma’s Rice Export by Type in April 2021 (Metric Tons) Parboiled Emata Emata Ngasein Ngasein Glutinous Rice Broken Destination Parboiled Total Brown Rice 5-20% 25% 5-20% 25% Rice Total Rice Total Bangladesh 11,193 11,193 11,193

Belgium 29,475 29,475

China 10,075 2,200 1,975 14,250 7,635 21,885

Czech Republic 430 128 558 5 563

Frence 25 25 25

Germany 375 375 375

Hong Kong 182 182 182

Indonesia 1000 1,000

Italy 125 125 250 250

Lithuania 250 250 250 500

Malaysia 5,645 5,645 5,645

Netherlands 50 250 300 1,400 1,700

Philippines 1,690 8,295 9,985 9,985

Poland 250 690 932 1,872 100 1,972

Portugal 250 250 250

Rumania 100 150 250 250

Singapore 175 175 360 535

Slovenia 350 150 500 500

Spain 1,125 1,125 500 1,625

The United Kingdom 750 750

Vietnam 125 750 875 875

Total 1,155 50 32,046 10,152 2,500 182 1,975 48,060 41,475 89,535 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Custom Data

Border Trade

Burma’s rice and broken rice exports traded at the border are forecast higher in May due to increased broken rice demand from China. Man Wein, Sin Phyu and Nandaw gates in Muse have been closed since March 30 that resulted in a dramatic decrease in border trade in April. Industry sources reported that 70-80 percent of border trade declined in April due to the closure of the gates. Agricultural products such as rice, corn, onion, beans, and pulses are normally exported through the Man Wein gates. Trucks have shifted to the Kyin San Kyawt and Wanding gates where mango and melons trucks usually

cross the border. In addition, all truck drivers must be tested for COVID-19. Waiting for the results of the test has dramatically increased transportation time.

Chinese officials did open the Man Wein gate for 3 days (June 1-3) to allow several trucks stuck in Kyalgaung (border city in China) to return to Muse (border city in Burma). On June 5, China further restricted border movement by making trucks enter China through the Kyin San Kyawt gate and return to Burma through the Wanding gate.

Table 3. Monthly Rice Exports in 2020 and 2021 (Metric Tons) Rice Milled, 2020 Rice Milled, 2021 Month Non-border trade Border trade Non-border trade Border trade Total Total Head Rice Broken Rice Head Rice Broken Rice Head Rice Broken Rice Head Rice Broken Rice January 147,336 49,512 23,335 1,006 221,189 86,217 59,170 48,805 64,049 258,241 February 126,513 76,346 22,624 9,241 234,724 30,311 41,393 24,406 21,042 117,151 March 117,312 114,303 32,572 20,098 284,285 29,233 10,791 26,555 39,143 105,722 April 42,909 38,745 10,482 3,007 95,143 48,060 41,475 12,385 21,435 123,355 May 111,800 84,427 9,142 2,024 207,393 85,000 50,000 5,000 25,000 165,000 June 77,107 70,793 15,358 20,425 183,683

July 64,158 54,904 23,422 24,339 166,823

August 79,642 42,190 19,791 21,078 162,701

September 37,519 37,586 16,545 16,247 107,897

October 33,722 33,215 32,445 13,452 112,834

November 91,926 48,075 81,443 23,850 245,294

December 107787 58,404 60,652 59,756 286,599

Total Rice 1,037,731 708,500 347,811 214,523 2,308,565 278,821 202,829 117,151 170,669 769,469 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Custom Data Note: May 2021 figures are estimates from Posts.

Market Overview

Domestic wholesale prices for both Emata 25 percent broken rice and Shwe Bo Pawsan increased in May due to the depreciation of Myanmar Kyats against the U.S. dollar, transportation difficulties, an anticipated smaller second crop production, and active purchasing by exporters. The domestic wholesale prices for both types of rice are also expected to increase in June for the same reasons.

Table 4. Monthly Domestic Wholesale Price for Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan Rice in Rangoon Market Emata 25% Shwe Bo Pawsan Type of Rice MMK/108lb $/MT MMK/108lb $/MT May 22,000-23,000 273-285 47,000-50,000 583-621 April 20,500-21,700 254-269 45,000-48,500 559-602 MMK: Myanmar Kyat Source: Myanmar Rice Federation Reference exchange rate in May 2021: One US$ = Kyat 1,610 (Central Bank of Myanmar)

Policy Updates

The Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank distributed an agricultural loan of 150,000 MMK (USD 93) per acre for the monsoon rice crop on May 26 with a 5 percent annual interest rate.

Export Prospects

Burma’s rice exports in June are anticipated to decrease due to continued closure of Burma-China border checkpoints and low demand from EU countries.

End of Report

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