BLOCKCHAIN: LEVERAGING A TRUST TECHNOLOGY IN EXPEDITIONARY

CARL J. SCHRAMM By now, the rule of law is universally considered a critical prerequisite for help- ing an undeveloped nation emerge with a self-sustaining, expanding . While an uncontested element of development theory, establishing the rule of law is so difficult in practice that it is seldom attempted. An example: Frustrated with the diffi- first step on the road to creating a credit- culties of post-conflict pacification, the based economy, the U.S. found itself second Bush administration turned to inventing a makeshift economic develop- establishing the rule of law as the central ment strategy on the fly. Unlike past situ- step in restarting the Iraqi economy.1. U.S. ations, where Army doctrine anticipated development officials, however, did not having to rebuild and temporarily admin- consider its implementation possible. ister the governments and of While visiting a farm on the outskirts of defeated nations, U.S. forces deployed in Tikrit in 2010, I asked how the farmer Iraq and Afghanistan had no such remit could prove his ownership of the land on and no institutional memory of perform- which we stood. A USAID official deflect- ing these roles, let alone contemporary ed my inquiries by invoking the dogeared training in managing such responsibili- formula that informal traditions of access ties.3. to the nearby stream for irrigation operat- The military instead looked princi- ed as a de facto claim to the land. The idea pally to USAID, a civilian development of a written deed recorded with the local agency, under a newly devised approach government was dismissed as pie in the referred to as “whole of government.”4. sky.2. Without authority to engage in civilian Instead of pursuing a workable rede- state-making, the military trusted that velopment plan that focused on establish- USAID, as well as several executive ing property ownership as a fundamental departments and independent agencies,

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Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/itgg/article-pdf/12/3-4/28/705278/inov_a_00273.pdf by guest on 02 October 2021 could provide field commanders with an izens. Democracy, Rostow argued, was effective strategy to rekindle Iraq’s econo- sure to follow. my.5. After several decades of attempts to USAID’s competency with large- make take-off happen, it was clear that scale in post-con- USAID didn’t know how to cold-start an flict situations was, unfortunately, nonex- economy. When confronted with the istent.6. The agency had been created early need for a strategy to restart the Iraqi in 1961 to counter Soviet efforts during economy, the agency turned to extramu- the Cold War to draw developing nations ral consultants. The roadmap provided, into its ideological orbit, including state “Moving the Iraqi Economy from planning of economies, by funding major Recovery to Sustainable Growth,” infrastructure projects.7. America’s copy- rehearsed Rostow’s view that formal cat policy, conceived by Walter Rostow, institutions must be in place for take-off was known as the take-off theory.8. to occur.10. Not surprisingly, the plan jus- Ironically, Rostow saw central plan- tified spending enormous sums to build ning as necessary to the five stages of various governmental agencies that mim- growth that every modern economy must icked our federal system, institutions traverse.9. Beginning with subsistence thought necessary to support a function- agriculture, any nation’s achievement of ing economy.11. An Iraqi equivalent of the what Rostow described as a mass con- U.S. Securities and Exchange sumer economy could be hurried along if Commission to regulate nonexistent a rich nation built the predicate institu- stock trading is one example, efforts to tions (roads, bridges, electrical grids, hos- build local chambers of commerce anoth- pitals, schools, banking systems, etc.) er. necessary to achieve “take-off” velocity, his third stage of . Once EXPEDITIONARY some growth had been realized, he ECONOMICS argued, a maturation process would enable the nation to transition into the Notwithstanding its contemporary final stage—a growing free econo- embrace, Rostow’s theory had been sus- my that provided modern goods to its cit- pect for decades. Reality presents a

ABOUT THE AUTHORS Carl J. Schramm is a University Professor at Syracuse University. Schramm served as president of the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation from 2002 to 2012. While there, he initiated the institu- tion’s commitment to research on innovation and its link to entrepreneurship. He served on the faculty of the Johns Hopkins University, teaching health policy and finance. As an entrepreneur, Schramm started several companies in healthcare informatics and risk assessment. His corporate experience includes being CEO of Fortis Healthcare. His most recent book, Burn the Business Plan, What Successful Entrepreneurs Really Do, was published by Simon & Schuster in 2018.

© 2018 Carl J. Schramm

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powerful critique. In more than six at forming new firms in developing coun- decades, USAID could not claim a sin- tries have failed.18. Prime among them is gle example of a modern economy that that, in most countries where economic emerged as a result of its ministra- development efforts are of particular tions.12. Worse yet, contemporary importance to the U.S., the absence of for- examples of cold-start economies, mally articulated rules that establish unaware of Rostow’s required stepwise property rights for the physical and intel- prescription, were at hand. Modern lectual assets of existing and new busi- Singapore, founded in 1965, began as a nesses are woefully inadequate or nonex- istent. Without them, the risks of starting fishing village with no natural new firms or reestablishing preexisting resources, insufficient farm production ones are so high that it is unlikely that a to feed its population, and virtually no modern economy can take shape. manufacturing.13. Fifty years later, what its founder described as “a tiny Chinese RULE OF LAW island in a large Malay sea” was a flour- ishing first-world finance and trade- As suggested, the foundation of expedi- centered economy.14. tionary economics rests on studies A third challenge to Rostow’s thesis showing that the salient force in devel- arose when a group of respected econo- opment is indigenous innovation that mists proposed a new “cookbook” for leads to increased levels of entrepre- development. Endorsed by the neurial risk-taking.19. As American his- International Monetary Fund, the World tory demonstrates, the nation’s early, Bank, and the U.S. Treasury, it became 15. unprecedented, and unequalled eco- known as the Washington Consensus. nomic success depended on individual Again, there is no evidence that the con- inventors and entrepreneurs who creat- sensus formula—“stabilize, liberalize and ed new technologies and, importantly, privatize”—has ever worked in practice.16. new business firms. This occurred in a Expeditionary economics was pro- posed as a situation-specific approach to past that to a modern observer would economic development to guide action in seem chaotic; for one thing, there was the wake of wars and catastrophic natural virtually no government regulation of disasters.17. This model serves a larger market practices or products. In retro- purpose, namely, a more actionable and spect, it is clear that the transition from effective approach to economic develop- a mercantile economy to is ment than Rostow’s five-stage model, nothing if not messy. which continues to be the default guide to Critical to the success of the early U.S. government aid. American economy, however, was Central to the theory of expeditionary English common law. While the pre- economics is the notion that indigenous dictability that a fair and efficient legal entrepreneurial activity is the key to system provides has been regarded as nec- development. While U.S. foreign policy essary to economic growth since the ini- has adopted the veneer of promoting tial observations of , Rostow entrepreneurship, positive results, as failed to appreciate the centrality of legal measured by newly formed firms that sur- rules to the modern development of com- vive five years and create significant num- merce. He was not alone; among the bers of new jobs, are hard to find. There Washington Consensus’ ten broad policy are many reasons that U.S. efforts aimed objectives, the last in order of importance

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was “legal security for property rights.” eralized credit as a way to kickstart the This phrase was a modern articulation of economy. It is hardly surprising that John Locke’s rule of law, which in turn is fewer than 3 percent of homes in Iraq a restatement of Aristotle’s view of law as were financed by mortgages.24. central to an efficient and virtuous socie- ty. The U.S. Constitution explicitly linked BLOCKCHAIN the hoped-for success of American TECHNOLOGY: A NEW TOOL democracy to specific, clearly articulated FOR EXPEDITIONARY 20. property rights. ECONOMICS In attempting to encourage the growth of foreign economies, however, History is marked by technical innova- the U.S. commitment to installing the rule tions that changed everything—the of law has been selective. In post-invasion wheel, sailing, bicycles, electricity, tele- Iraq, for example, establishing the rule of phones, cars, airplanes, television, air law meant imposing a formal constitu- conditioning, atomic weapons, the tion, defining a corpus of criminal law Internet, and cell phones. Readers of and procedure, and establishing a system these pages know that Blockchain tech- of trial and appellate courts.21. These nology has the same potential. By efforts were driven in large part by con- recording specific transactions as a cerns over corruption among Iraqi offi- “block” of digitized information, the cials as reconstruction was under way. Attempts to impose legal standards making and executing of contractual relating to real property or establish a agreements can be instantaneous, irre- commercial code, however, never were versible, and immutable, due to being embraced with enthusiasm.22. Develop- chained together to compose an identi- ment practice, as the opening anecdote cal ledger stored on an enormous dis- illustrates, pays lip service to the impor- tributed network of participating com- tance of formalized systems of land puters. tenure and the need for contract law, even More than any other factor, the while erecting largely anthropological absence of incorruptible systems of prop- reasons why they cannot be expected to erty rights conceived of in the broadest work. way (real estate, equity interests in busi- Thus, the fundamental first element nesses, contractual obligations, judicially of a modern economy, where credit is determined interests, and intellectual based on formalized ownership of land property) has frustrated decades of well- and buildings, is essentially treated as intended efforts to bring about self-sus- irrelevant.23. Further justifying why taining growth in poorer nations. Applied USAID’s plan ignored the importance of widely as a mandated keystone in a devel- constructing Western systems of property opment strategy, Blockchain technology registration was the view that existing can serve as a foundational element of a prewar systems of recording claims to economy based on honesty land ownership were so overwhelmingly and trust, which is critical to indigenous corrupt that efforts to overcome inbred credit-based capital expansion. Many societal norms would prove fruitless. applications can be imagined, some of Titles could be lost, found, or changed which are already in experimental use. with a bribe. The absolute ban on interest From the perspective of donor in Sharia law further discouraged reform- nations and international agencies such as ers hoping to establish a system of collat- the International Monetary Fund and the

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World Bank, as well as multinational cor- ciently with Blockchain. For example, porations making direct investments in income-support programs could auto- developing nations, perhaps the most matically adjust public contributions to important contribution of a system of enforce incentives to work. Furthermore, Blockchain records is its ability to greatly local governments could operate more reduce corruption. Blockchain ledgers efficiently by posting municipal needs provide traceability of funds and assure such as road repairs in an auction market, their application to the intended uses. The where bidders could be qualified, moni- ability of corrupt officials to siphon off tored (invoice verification that appropri- government-to-government transfers for ate materials were used), and paid using their own purposes can be reduced drasti- Blockchain ledgers. Transparency of such cally.25. One unintended but altogether transactions would enhance confidence positive result may be that donor nations’ among taxpayers. political resistance to foreign aid will Healthcare could also benefit in sev- decline. eral ways. Most obvious is that patient A second valued application relates to records could be securely stored. enforcing the effectiveness of fledgling Diagnostic information aggregated on governments. As discussed above, the entire populations would improve the rule of law is the critical first step in estab- ability to detect epidemics and help con- lishing a credit-based economy that leads trol communicable diseases. Moreover, to indigenous wealth creation and the supply of medicine in developing growth. Early systems of Blockchain- countries presents risks unknown in the based property registration already are in developed world: the World Health use in Brazil, Dubai, and Georgia. They Organization estimates that more than 40 improve the speed of recognizing owner- percent of medical products in some ship rights and improve systems for man- African countries are substandard or fal- aging escrow funds. In time they will be sified.28. Blockchain would enable trace- able to support complex property transac- and-track systems of medical products tions, including disaggregated ownership, from manufacturer to patient. fractional rights, and non-brokered peer- Food security has enormous implica- to-peer transactions.26. tions for population health as well. Once in place, such uses of Blockchain is widely seen as the solution Blockchain ledgers will hold real promise to providing a precise description of the for encouraging democratic institutions. supply chain for every product.29. This The technology allows for much more would allow processed foods, as well as complete and up-to-date census data, not fruits and vegetables, to be followed back- just of citizens but of the numbers and wards from the middle-market negotia- types of firms, of workers by occupation tors to the producers and, ultimately, to and skills, of students, and of social over- the specific fields they were grown in to head assets including hospitals and clin- ensure safety at every step. ics. Elections can of course be legitimated Of course, Blockchain gained its using Blockchain for voter registration notoriety by supporting the invention of and proof of identity, thereby mitigating non-government currencies. Bitcoin, the political disputes that can spill over into best known, along with many other cryp- civil upheavals that are injurious to eco- tocurrencies, is used as a medium of nomic progress.27. exchange on the Internet and is seen by Social welfare initiatives also could be many as an alternative store of wealth, administered more equitably and effi- one insulated from the vicissitudes of

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state-managed monetary policy. This technologies. It is important for the U.S. application is useful in situations antici- to develop applications that will pro- pated by the doctrine of expeditionary mote global welfare. Democracy may be economics. In the post-conflict pacifica- strengthened in the process. tion of Iraq, for example, the U.S. estab- lished a Commander’s Emergency CODA: AN INNOVATION IN Response Program (CERP) that put enor- EFFICIENT TRUST AND THE mous sums of cash at the disposal of NATURE OF THE FIRM American troops who used it to fund a wide range of initiatives, including build- In the future, Blockchain will have an ing factories and schools, restoring water unforeseen impact on development pol- and sewage systems, and encouraging icy by making the formation of new entrepreneurs to establish new business- 30. firms a somewhat easier process. es. The opportunity for corruption was Ronald Coase’s theory of the firm, for enormous. which he won the Nobel Prize, rests on A future post-invasion CERP pro- his observation that corporations opti- gram might employ a temporary mize efficiency by reducing transaction Blockchain-based currency specific to a geography and limited in its life. A fore- costs through uniform rules that govern runner to this idea can be found in the bargains within the firm that are implic- 32. World Food Programme’s experiment itly contractual in nature. Blockchain with Blockchain in Jordon’s Azraq technology is certain to disturb this par- refugee camp. Refugees using Blockchain adigm by stretching the boundaries that grocery vouchers are identified at the have traditionally defined the efficient point of sale using retina scanning.31. firm, including a firm’s capacity to Savings of around 90 percent of the innovate. The prevailing view of how administrative costs related to controlling and why firms are formed, what consti- the secondary marketing of relief supplies tutes their optimum size, how firms within the refugee population have been function within an efficient ecosystem, realized as a result. and their expected longevity, is likely to change dramatically. CONCLUSION Coase’s theory one day will be chal- lenged by a perspective that replaces Building post-conflict competency transactional efficiency as a firm’s raison among American military and civilian d’etre with one that sees a successful relief agencies remains a critical need, as firm’s advantage in how it extracts the U.S. and its allies continually face from innovation, that generated within challenges that might require eventual the firm and that acquired from other reconstruction. America will continue firms, including startups. to use foreign aid for humanitarian pur- Increased competence at extracting poses and to help poorer nations create value from innovation will be both caused economies that can improve living stan- and enabled by Blockchain technology in dards for their people and sustain two ways. Both reflect the technology’s growth. The many tasks involved in value in creating trust in transactions in reconstruction and economic develop- disruptive ways. First, Blockchain allows ment should be made significantly easi- the building of open innovation processes er with the development of Blockchain within existing firms. Total transparency

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within a firm for every contractual rela- Blockchain could help create new tionship will allow greater structural effi- approaches to complying with first-to- ciencies to emerge, particularly in large discover and/or first-to-file rules meant to firms with experience in generating inno- protect newly developed intellectual vation internally. One such efficiency is property, and could provide inventors, increased knowledge leverage that allows entrepreneurs, and investors more securi- for optimizing the distribution of innova- ty than existing systems. Blockchain start- tion efforts between central research hubs up records could be used by early stage and related division-level activity. Apple, innovators to explore whether their dis- P&G, J&J, Intel, and Microsoft are cur- coveries have already been registered and rently using Blockchain to improve their applied commercially, thus allowing them innovation by balancing either to focus on advancing their idea or their internal discovery and development to move on. The ability of Blockchain processes. technology to routinize and automate Second, a new kind of trusted collab- “backroom” functions also holds the oration can be realized with the applica- promise of efficient outsourcing for start- tion of Blockchain technology. ups. Apple provides a working example of Blockchain has the potential to expand how innovators can delegate bookkeeping the conventional concept of open innova- and related functions to its App Store. tion among firms with intellectual prop- Finally, a census of new startups that erty by creating symbiotic potential. The allow third parties to see the thesis of outcome may be leveraged growth using every new firm—its intellectual property common innovations, a solution that and the solutions that it promises to spe- does not require concentrating capital cific customer markets—could greatly through mergers and acquisitions. improve the efficiency of capital markets Blockchain already is having disrup- for venture funding and improve the tive effects in transaction-based indus- process of forming partnerships between tries, including banking and insurance, by startups and established firms. allowing control functions such as inter- nal accounting and auditing to be done 1. In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, the automatically in real time. Professional U.S. military was unprepared to build a service firms (e.g., law, surveying, fore- functioning economy, the necessary casting) are similarly affected by precedent condition for American troops Blockchain applications that apply rule- to withdraw. The U.S. had executed a based intelligence to recurring fact pat- retributive strike against a nation involved terns. Transactional savings will be real- in an act of war against the United States ized by every firm as decision making but had not contemplated what would be required in its aftermath. becomes increasingly automated by artifi- 2. cial intelligence that is tied to data stored This conversation took place four years after the centrality of instituting the rule of and authenticated in Blockchain ledgers. law thesis was declared. Finally, Blockchain has significant 3. potential to assist the startup process in Unlike past post-conflict situations, where Army doctrine anticipated having to developing countries and is pioneering rebuild and temporarily administer the ways to make the process more efficient economies and governments of defeated and less dangerous in highly developed nations, U.S. forces deployed in Iraq and countries, including the U.S. No country Afghanistan had no such remit and no keeps records of innovations that led to institutional memory of performing these startups and what becomes of them. roles, let alone contemporary training in

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managing such responsibilities. This was NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012. not always the case. See Paterson, Rebecca. 13. Lee, Kuan Yew. From Third World to Revisiting a School of Military First: The Singapore Story 1965-2000. Government: How Reanimating a World Singapore: Times Media Private Limited, War II-Era Institution Could 2000. Professionalize Military Nation Building. 14. This resulted from what was seen as an Kauffman Foundation Research Series: unconventional, even chaotic approach Expeditionary Economics No. 3, 2011. devised by the country’s first post-colonial 4. See both National Security Presidential leader, Lee Kuan Yew. In conversation with Directive 44 (NSPD44) and Department of the author, Lee related that he had been Defense Directive 3000.05, issued in 2005. influenced by Alexander Hamilton and 5. The phrase is from Chivvis, Christopher S., Benjamin Franklin, who saw human Olga Oliker, Andrew M. Liepman, Ben ingenuity as the critical ingredient of Connable, George Willcoxon, and William economic success. Singapore’s Young. Initial Thoughts on the Impact of development resembled the spontaneous the Iraq War on U.S. National Security order that the argued was Structures. RAND Corporation, 2014. how all economic activity begins, rather 6. Easterly, William. “The Utopian than the hyper-rational approach Nightmare.” Foreign Policy, September- characterized by neo-classical . October 2005. See Hayek, F. A. The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism. Chicago: University of 7. Currently, both Russia and China are Chicago Press, 1991, p. 6. pursuing much the same strategy. 15. See “What Washington Means by Policy 8. Rostow, Walter W. Stages of Economic Reform.” In Latin American Readjustment: Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. How Much Has Happened, ed. John Cambridge, UK, 1960. Rostow’s thesis Williamson. Washington, DC: Peterson continues to serve as the urtext of USAID Institute for International policy. Economics, 1989. 9. Ironically, devised as a response to the 16. This approach is now largely discredited. Soviet program of building public works in Rodrik, Dani. Goodbye Washington newly freed and impoverished former Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion, colonial nations to lure them into the 2006. Available at http://j.mp/2o4og7K. Russian orbit, Rostow’s prescription was in 17. every respect a central planning, big Schramm, Carl J. “Expeditionary government solution. Economics: Spurring Growth After Conflicts and Disasters.” Foreign Affairs, 10. King, Neil. “Bush Officials Draft Broad May/June 2010. Plan for Free- in Iraq.” 18. Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2003; also see The U.S. State Department and USAID Looney, Robert. The Neoliberal Model’s often appear to see the promotion of Planned Role in Iraq’s Economic entrepreneurship as an unconnected, Transition. Naval Postgraduate School, separable approach to development. In Center for Contemporary Conflict, August fact, federal efforts to promote 1, 2003. entrepreneurship overseas look very much like misguided domestic efforts. Thus, 11. See Beer, Sam. The United States’ Program programming is aimed at youth, for Agriculture in Post-Invasion Iraq. Lulu particularly college-age populations, Press, 2014. despite evidence that the average American 12. For a discussion of how economies start is 39 when starting a first business. see Landes David S., Joel Mokyr, and Similarly, while there is no evidence that William J. Baumol (Eds.). The Invention of business incubators and localized venture Enterprise: Entrepreneurship from Ancient funds have any significant impact on the Mesopotamia to Modern Times. Princeton, number of new firms starting in failing

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American cities, we support foreign efforts 26. Graglia, J. Michael, and Christopher to start incubators and establish venture Mellon. “Blockchain and Property in capital pools. Perhaps of great importance 2018.” Innovations 12, no. 1/2 (2018). is the falling number of newly formed 27. Wang, Zheng. “Tiananmen as the Turning American firms, in steady decline for 20 Point: China’s Impossible Balancing Act.” years. Exporting the American model of Time, April 29, 2014. stimulating entrepreneurship is proving 28. See Pisa, Michael. “Reassessing futile for good reasons. See Schramm, Carl Expectations for Blockchain and J. Burn the Business Plan. Simon and Development.” Innovations 12, no. 1/2 Schuster, 2018, pp. 195-199. (2018). 19. Romer, Paul M. “The Origins of 29. Yiannas, Frank. “A New Era of Food Endogenous Growth.” The Journal of Transparency Powered by Blockchain.” Economic Perspectives, 1994, pp. 3- Innovations 12, no. 1/2 (2018). 22. doi:10.1257/jep.8.1.3. JSTOR 2138148. 30. Center for Army Lessons Learned, 20. See Amendments 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 and 11, Commanders Guide to Money as a which pertain to protecting private Weapons System. USA Handbook 09-27, property, as well as the Patent Clause in 2007. Article 1, which recognizes what we now refer to as intellectual property. 31. Lubin, Joseph et al. “Blockchain for Global Development.” Innovations 12, no. 1/2 21. Williamson, John C. “Establishing the Rule (2018). of Law in Post-War Iraq: Rebuilding the Justice.” Georgia Journal of International 32. Coase, Ronald. “The Nature of the Firm.” and Comparative Law, 2004; also see Yoo, Economica 4, no. 16 (1937), 386-405. John. “Iraq Reconstruction and the Law of Occupation.” U.C. Davis Journal of International Law & Policy 7, 2004-2005. 22. Weingast, Barry R. “Why Developing Countries Prove So Resistant to the Rule of Law.” Working paper 382, Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development, March 2009. 23. de Soto, Hernando. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. New York: Basic Books, 2000. 24. RTI International. Land Registration and Property Rights. USAID Contract Number: EDG-C-00-03-00010-00. 2005. 25. The scandalous corruption that characterized redevelopment efforts in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake serve as a vivid example. See Lundahl, Mats. The of Disaster: Destitution, Plunder and Earthquake in Haiti. New York: Routledge, 2013, p. 236. Also, for an account of missing aid intended for the education of Syrians, see “Following the Money: Lack of Transparency in Donor Funding for Syrian Refugee Education.” Human Rights Watch, 2017.

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