A Downlist Is Not a Demotion: Red List Status and Reality

Forum A downlist is not a demotion: Red List status and reality

D AVID P. MALLON and R ODNEY M. JACKSON

Abstract Assessments of biodiversity status are needed to threat (bands of extinction risk) and criteria with quantified track trends, and the IUCN Red List has become the ac- thresholds (IUCN, ), accompanied by detailed guide- cepted global standard for documenting the extinction lines on their application (IUCN Standards and Petitions risk of species. Obtaining robust data on population size is Subcommittee, ). an essential component of any assessment of a species’ sta- Unbiased estimates of population density and abundance tus, including assessments for the IUCN Red List. Obtaining that incorporate uncertainty are essential components of any such estimates is complicated by methodological and assessment of a species’ status, including those for the Red logistical issues, which are more pronounced in the case of List. Obtaining such estimates depends on systematic study cryptic species, such as the snow leopard Panthera uncia. design, adherence to rigorous sampling protocols, estimates Estimates of the total population size of this species have, of detectability, and adequate sample size, among other to date, been based on little more than guesstimates, but a factors, to meet the assumptions of statistical tests; the comprehensive summary of recent field research indicates frequent failure to meet these requirements has been that the conservation status of the snow leopard may be documented by Singh & Milner-Gulland (). Logistical less dire than previously thought. A revised categorization, and methodological challenges can hinder calculation of from Endangered to Vulnerable, on the IUCN Red List was estimates even for relatively large, diurnal species living in proposed but met some opposition, as did a recent, similar open terrain, such as mountain ungulates (Caprinae; recategorization of the giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca. Wingard et al., ) and the goitered gazelle Gazella subgut- Possible factors motivating such attitudes are discussed. turosa and wild ass Equus hemionus in Mongolia (Kaczensky Downlisting on the IUCN Red List indicates that the species et al., ). concerned is further from extinction, and is always to be These challenges are magnified in the case of species that welcomed, whether resulting from successful conservation are more difficult to detect, such as the snow leopard intervention or improved knowledge of status and trends. Panthera uncia, an apex predator dwelling at naturally low Celebrating success is important to reinforce the message densities in high-elevation environments with relatively low that conservation works, and to incentivize donors. basal productivity in the Himalaya, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and mountains of Central Asia. The snow leopard also has Keywords Cryptic, IUCN Red List, Panthera uncia, popu- a crepuscular or nocturnal activity pattern, is reclusive in its lation estimate, snow leopard, species assessment habits and is rarely observed in the wild. egular assessments are required to track biodiversity Until recently, published estimates of the global snow status and trends, and inform decisions about where leopard population size have all been of the same order of R  –    –  conservation interventions are most needed. Reliable assess- magnitude: , , (Fox, ); , , (McCarthy   –   ments depend on standardized, objective and transparent & Chapron, ); , , (Jackson et al., ), and  –   procedures, supported by accurate and up-to-date informa- , , (Snow Leopard Working Secretariat, ); all tion. The species is one of the fundamental components of are best considered to be guesstimates, based on expert biodiversity and the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species opinion with varying but generally temporally increasing has become the globally accepted standard for providing levels of information. an explicit, objective framework for assessing extinction Despite the attributes that make the snow leopard a — risk and documenting the status of species (and infraspecific difficult subject to study in the field or more likely in — taxa). The Red List process incorporates a set of categories of part because of them it has become an iconic species, and a flagship for the high-mountain ecosystems it inhabits. Research and conservation programmes on the snow leopard and its habitats have expanded steadily in scope, volume DAVID P. MALLON (Corresponding author) Division of Biology and Conservation and quality, especially since the publication of the first Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5DG, UK. E-mail [email protected] version of the Snow Leopard Survival Strategy (McCarthy  RODNEY M. JACKSON Snow Leopard Conservancy, Sonoma, California, USA & Chapron, ). The large quantity of information that Received  August . Revision requested  November . has accumulated from this research is summarized in a Accepted  April . First published online  June . publication containing contributions by nearly  experts

Oryx, 2017, 51(4), 605–609 © 2017 Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605317000606 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.40.219, on 29 Sep 2021 at 13:32:07, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605317000606 606 D. P. Mallon and R. M. Jackson

in all fields of snow leopard research and conservation The snow leopard still faces a variety of threats, both on- (McCarthy & Mallon, ). going, such as retaliatory killing, habitat degradation (at least Several facets of this recent research, notably in relation to locally), poaching and illegal trade, and emerging, notably population size, population density, lack of fragmentation, climate change and large-scale infrastructure development, and conservation action, appear to indicate that the status both of which are expected to intensify. Equally, conserva- of the snow leopard may be slightly less dire than hitherto tion programmes focused on the snow leopard and its habi- believed. These include the results of a Rangewide tat have expanded, including measures such as confiscation Conservation Planning workshop held in Beijing in , of firearms in western China (Harris, ) and other anti- which was attended by a large number of regional and inter- poaching initiatives, improved livestock corrals to reduce national experts. The workshop identified  Snow Leopard human–wildlife conflict (Mohammad et al., ), designa- Conservation Units, using the methodology already em- tion of new protected areas, rural livelihood programmes, ployed successfully in planning for, among others, the jaguar capacity-building and awareness raising initiatives, as well Panthera onca (Sanderson et al., ) and the American as two global planning frameworks for snow leopard conser- crocodile Crocodylus acutus (Thorbjarnarson et al., ), vation (Snow Leopard Working Secretariat, ; Sanderson and produced higher population estimates made at much et al., ). Transboundary programmes have increased in finer scales, and in more sites than previously, on the basis scope in recognition of the fact that snow leopards range on of the experts’ knowledge derived from wide-ranging field- both sides of the mountain ridges that so often form inter- based studies (McCarthy et al., ). Higher estimates for national borders (Rosen & Zahler, ). For comprehensive China were made on a similar basis by experts from each reviews of threats and conservation measures see Jackson province within snow leopard range (Riordan & Shi, ). et al. (), Snow Leopard Network () and chapters The results of field research projects gathered from widely se- in McCarthy & Mallon (). parated sites, and utilizing more sophisticated technologies The scope and severity of these threats, and the intensity and statistical analyses (e.g. spatially explicit recapture and effectiveness of conservation projects all vary across re- models in camera-trapping, faecal genotyping, satellite col- gions. Experts at the  Beijing workshop assessed snow laring, and occupancy modelling) have generated more pre- leopard populations as being stable or increasing in %of cise estimates of snow leopard density (Li, ; Shrestha the  Snow Leopard Conservation Units and decreasing in et al., ; Jumabay-Uulu et al., ; Kachel, ; %, with no information for % of units (McCarthy et al., Sharma et al., ; Thinley, ; Alexander et al., ). ). Although it is difficult to capture an overall trend, It is unlikely that a higher population estimate could be there is a general lack of evidence of a significant continuing attributed entirely to an increase in snow leopard numbers; decline in the global snow leopard population. rather, it is probably attributable to more studies having The requirement to reassess the IUCN Red List status of been conducted across a broader range of habitats, with the snow leopard for the Global Mammal Assessment that greater precision achieved by improvements in study design, began in  provided an opportunity to review the sampling protocols and technology. The trend in increasing new information against the IUCN Red List Criteria. population estimates across sites and/or over time suggests Based on this new information, and technical issues that that early estimates of snow leopard population size re- emerged over the previous assessment, a categorization of flected the difficulty in detecting the species. Vulnerable was proposed, representing a change from the A further positive point to emerge is that the snow leo- current Endangered status (Jackson et al., ). One pard’s global range has remained largely unfragmented (e.g. might intuitively expect the change to a lower Red List cat- Riordan et al., ). There are few obvious natural or man- egory to be welcomed, as it indicates a greater distance from made barriers, other than perhaps some major river valleys extinction, yet this proposal met strong resistance within and a few border fences, respectively, and many rivers in the some parts of the snow leopard conservation community. snow leopard’s range freeze in winter, facilitating movement Some comments received during the assessment process and dispersal. Habitat contiguity has also been reported at concerned interpretations of the data, or highlighted the the national level, such as across extensive landscapes in precautionary principle, but others were opposed in prin- Nepal (Ale et al., ), northern Pakistan (Ud Din et al., ciple to a change in category, with several suggesting that ) and the Sanjiangyuan region of Qinghai, China (Li, ‘this is not the right time to downlist’ and doing so ‘sends ; Liu et al., ). There seems little, at least in theory, the wrong message’. to prevent an individual snow leopard or its offspring Somewhat similar reactions accompanied the recent from dispersing from the eastern Himalaya along the change in status of the giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca , km length of this range to the Karakoram and from Endangered to Vulnerable (Swaisgood et al., ). Pamir mountains and thence north-east along the Tien Although this change was principally a result of determined Shan or east along the Kun Lun mountain ranges (Fig. ). efforts by the Chinese authorities to protect and restore

FIG. 1 The global distribution (shaded) of the snow leopard Panthera uncia. (Courtesy of Panthera, Wildlife Conservation Society, Snow Leopard Network, and Snow Leopard Trust)

forests in panda range, the decision nonetheless caused some A more pragmatic motivation can result from some do- controversy and disagreement (Swaisgood et al., , ). nors restricting funding to species in the highest Red List cat- The Red List process is designed to operate by applying egories. A subsequent transfer to a lower category may the criteria and thresholds objectively to the best available remove eligibility for funding, with consequences for exist- data, then assigning the most appropriate category, not by ing conservation programmes. It is true that successful con- starting out with a prior intention to uplist or downlist, or servation action that leads to improved Red List status may with a predetermined category. Disagreements and misun- well lead to a reduction or withdrawal of the very funding derstandings seem widespread and are of a different nature that brought about the success. However, funding decisions to the several misapplications of the Red List categories and made on such a basis are not an intrinsic feature of the IUCN criteria documented by Collen et al. (). Red List but derive from donors’ use of the Red List categor- It is interesting to examine what motivates these appar- ies in their application procedures. IUCN Red List assess- ently counter-intuitive attitudes. It is inevitable that species ments are used, inter alia, to inform listings on the listed in the highest categories of threat will have a more Appendices of CITES and the Convention on Migratory prominent profile than those in other categories, and the Species, and in National Biodiversity and Strategy and terms Critically Endangered and Endangered reflect an ap- Action Plans, official lists of protected species, national legis- propriate sense of urgency. It seems, however, that a high lation, and conservation priority-setting exercises at global, threat category sometimes becomes conflated with desirable regional and local scales. In addition, the Red List Index status, instead of the more logical converse, leading in turn (Butchart et al., ) is used to monitor progress on the to an insidious shift towards the Endangered and Critically Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi Biodiversity Endangered categories being viewed as something to be re- Targets, and the United Nations Sustainable Development tained or attained. Whether the terms themselves contribute Goals. The wide range of applications at policy, planning to such views, in a way that more neutrally worded labels and practical levels underlines the need for rigorous applica- would not, is arguable. As a corollary, the lowest Red List tion of the Red List process. Clearly, however, assessments category, Least Concern, is sometimes misinterpreted as based on subjective considerations or special interests ‘of no concern’, when of course all species are of some con- undermine the objectivity of the system and risk distorting cern, in the broadest sense. A further consequence is that a priorities and diverting resources away from where they transfer to a lower category of threat may then be viewed are most needed. wrongly as a demotion and something to be resisted, not As far as Red List categories are concerned, lower means as a target to be achieved. safer (and therefore preferable), and the highest categories

of threat (Critically Endangered, Endangered and The Red List is not intended to serve as the sole means of Vulnerable) indicate a serious, unfavourable situation that setting conservation priorities (IUCN, ). If a long-term needs urgent action. A reassignment to a lower category of aim is to conserve species in dynamic, fully functioning eco- threat on the Red List, even as in the case of the recategor- systems across landscape scales, then priorities should be set ization of the snow leopard from Endangered (very high risk on a comprehensive basis, as appears to be highlighted, for of extinction in the wild) to Vulnerable (high risk of extinc- example, by the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection tion in the wild), as defined in IUCN (), should always Program (Snow Leopard Working Secretariat, ). In the be viewed as positive, even though the change may appear main example cited here, the persistence of the snow leop- modest and the species remains imperilled. This is true ard is intimately linked to an adequate prey base and healthy when the change is made based on better information, montane habitats that also provide grazing for livestock on and more especially when it is a result of the implementa- which local communities depend for their livelihoods. The tion of conservation measures. Species transferred to a species also plays an integral role in maintaining ecosystem lower category of threat usually remain conservation- function and services and is rightly considered to be em- dependent, so a move to a lower category does not in any blematic of its unique environment. Taken together, these way imply that a weakening of conservation or research provide a more strategic and sustainable basis for the con- efforts is warranted. In fact, continued funding and effort servation of the snow leopard than reliance on a single label. are vital to mitigate key and emerging threats and prevent the species from reverting to a previously higher threatened status. Acknowledgements In view of the misapprehensions, it may be helpful to ac- company downlists, especially of high-profile species, with We are grateful to Martin Fisher, Luke Hunter, Peter Zahler, appropriate messages that emphasize the good news, the Tom McCarthy, Kyle McCarthy and an anonymous review- role played by successful action where relevant, and the er for their critical comments, and to Rana Bayrakcismith need to continue, not relax, conservation efforts to consoli- and Martin Fisher for help with the map. date the new status. 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Ecography, , DAVID MALLON has been working on snow leopards since .He –. has worked extensively in the Himalaya and Central Asia, with snow RIORDAN,P.&SHI,K.() Current state of snow leopard leopards and ungulates, and on other conservation matters. He served conservation in China. In Snow Leopards (eds T. McCarthy & as Chair of the Snow Leopard Network during –.RODNEY D. Mallon), pp. –. Elsevier, New York, USA. JACKSON was the first scientist to radio-collar snow leopards, in the ROSEN,T.&ZAHLER,P.() Transboundary initiatives and snow s. He has nearly  years of experience working in South and leopard conservation. In Snow Leopards (eds T. McCarthy & Central Asia, particularly on snow leopard conservation, and is the D. Mallon), pp. –. Elsevier, New York, USA. founder and Director of the Snow Leopard Conservancy.