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A Downlist Is Not a Demotion: Red List Status and Reality

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A Downlist Is Not a Demotion: Red List Status and Reality Forum A downlist is not a demotion: Red List status and reality D AVID P. MALLON and R ODNEY M. JACKSON Abstract Assessments of biodiversity status are needed to threat (bands of extinction risk) and criteria with quantified track trends, and the IUCN Red List has become the ac- thresholds (IUCN, ), accompanied by detailed guide- cepted global standard for documenting the extinction lines on their application (IUCN Standards and Petitions risk of species. Obtaining robust data on population size is Subcommittee, ). an essential component of any assessment of a species’ sta- Unbiased estimates of population density and abundance tus, including assessments for the IUCN Red List. Obtaining that incorporate uncertainty are essential components of any such estimates is complicated by methodological and assessment of a species’ status, including those for the Red logistical issues, which are more pronounced in the case of List. Obtaining such estimates depends on systematic study cryptic species, such as the snow leopard Panthera uncia. design, adherence to rigorous sampling protocols, estimates Estimates of the total population size of this species have, of detectability, and adequate sample size, among other to date, been based on little more than guesstimates, but a factors, to meet the assumptions of statistical tests; the comprehensive summary of recent field research indicates frequent failure to meet these requirements has been that the conservation status of the snow leopard may be documented by Singh & Milner-Gulland (). Logistical less dire than previously thought. A revised categorization, and methodological challenges can hinder calculation of from Endangered to Vulnerable, on the IUCN Red List was estimates even for relatively large, diurnal species living in proposed but met some opposition, as did a recent, similar open terrain, such as mountain ungulates (Caprinae; recategorization of the giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca. Wingard et al., ) and the goitered gazelle Gazella subgut- Possible factors motivating such attitudes are discussed. turosa and wild ass Equus hemionus in Mongolia (Kaczensky Downlisting on the IUCN Red List indicates that the species et al., ). concerned is further from extinction, and is always to be These challenges are magnified in the case of species that welcomed, whether resulting from successful conservation are more difficult to detect, such as the snow leopard intervention or improved knowledge of status and trends. Panthera uncia, an apex predator dwelling at naturally low Celebrating success is important to reinforce the message densities in high-elevation environments with relatively low that conservation works, and to incentivize donors. basal productivity in the Himalaya, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and mountains of Central Asia. The snow leopard also has Keywords Cryptic, IUCN Red List, Panthera uncia, popu- a crepuscular or nocturnal activity pattern, is reclusive in its lation estimate, snow leopard, species assessment habits and is rarely observed in the wild. egular assessments are required to track biodiversity Until recently, published estimates of the global snow status and trends, and inform decisions about where leopard population size have all been of the same order of R – – conservation interventions are most needed. Reliable assess- magnitude: , , (Fox, ); , , (McCarthy – ments depend on standardized, objective and transparent & Chapron, ); , , (Jackson et al., ), and – procedures, supported by accurate and up-to-date informa- , , (Snow Leopard Working Secretariat, ); all tion. The species is one of the fundamental components of are best considered to be guesstimates, based on expert biodiversity and the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species opinion with varying but generally temporally increasing has become the globally accepted standard for providing levels of information. an explicit, objective framework for assessing extinction Despite the attributes that make the snow leopard a — risk and documenting the status of species (and infraspecific difficult subject to study in the field or more likely in — taxa). The Red List process incorporates a set of categories of part because of them it has become an iconic species, and a flagship for the high-mountain ecosystems it inhabits. Research and conservation programmes on the snow leop- ard and its habitats have expanded steadily in scope, volume DAVID P. MALLON (Corresponding author) Division of Biology and Conservation and quality, especially since the publication of the first Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5DG, UK. E-mail [email protected] version of the Snow Leopard Survival Strategy (McCarthy RODNEY M. JACKSON Snow Leopard Conservancy, Sonoma, California, USA & Chapron, ). The large quantity of information that Received August . Revision requested November . has accumulated from this research is summarized in a Accepted April . First published online June . publication containing contributions by nearly experts Oryx, 2017, 51(4), 605–609 © 2017 Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605317000606 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.40.219, on 29 Sep 2021 at 13:32:07, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605317000606 606 D. P. Mallon and R. M. Jackson in all fields of snow leopard research and conservation The snow leopard still faces a variety of threats, both on- (McCarthy & Mallon, ). going, such as retaliatory killing, habitat degradation (at least Several facets of this recent research, notably in relation to locally), poaching and illegal trade, and emerging, notably population size, population density, lack of fragmentation, climate change and large-scale infrastructure development, and conservation action, appear to indicate that the status both of which are expected to intensify. Equally, conserva- of the snow leopard may be slightly less dire than hitherto tion programmes focused on the snow leopard and its habi- believed. These include the results of a Rangewide tat have expanded, including measures such as confiscation Conservation Planning workshop held in Beijing in , of firearms in western China (Harris, ) and other anti- which was attended by a large number of regional and inter- poaching initiatives, improved livestock corrals to reduce national experts. The workshop identified Snow Leopard human–wildlife conflict (Mohammad et al., ), designa- Conservation Units, using the methodology already em- tion of new protected areas, rural livelihood programmes, ployed successfully in planning for, among others, the jaguar capacity-building and awareness raising initiatives, as well Panthera onca (Sanderson et al., ) and the American as two global planning frameworks for snow leopard conser- crocodile Crocodylus acutus (Thorbjarnarson et al., ), vation (Snow Leopard Working Secretariat, ; Sanderson and produced higher population estimates made at much et al., ). Transboundary programmes have increased in finer scales, and in more sites than previously, on the basis scope in recognition of the fact that snow leopards range on of the experts’ knowledge derived from wide-ranging field- both sides of the mountain ridges that so often form inter- based studies (McCarthy et al., ). Higher estimates for national borders (Rosen & Zahler, ). For comprehensive China were made on a similar basis by experts from each reviews of threats and conservation measures see Jackson province within snow leopard range (Riordan & Shi, ). et al. (), Snow Leopard Network () and chapters The results of field research projects gathered from widely se- in McCarthy & Mallon (). parated sites, and utilizing more sophisticated technologies The scope and severity of these threats, and the intensity and statistical analyses (e.g. spatially explicit recapture and effectiveness of conservation projects all vary across re- models in camera-trapping, faecal genotyping, satellite col- gions. Experts at the Beijing workshop assessed snow laring, and occupancy modelling) have generated more pre- leopard populations as being stable or increasing in %of cise estimates of snow leopard density (Li, ; Shrestha the Snow Leopard Conservation Units and decreasing in et al., ; Jumabay-Uulu et al., ; Kachel, ; %, with no information for % of units (McCarthy et al., Sharma et al., ; Thinley, ; Alexander et al., ). ). Although it is difficult to capture an overall trend, It is unlikely that a higher population estimate could be there is a general lack of evidence of a significant continuing attributed entirely to an increase in snow leopard numbers; decline in the global snow leopard population. rather, it is probably attributable to more studies having The requirement to reassess the IUCN Red List status of been conducted across a broader range of habitats, with the snow leopard for the Global Mammal Assessment that greater precision achieved by improvements in study design, began in provided an opportunity to review the sampling protocols and technology. The trend in increasing new information against the IUCN Red List Criteria. population estimates across sites and/or over time suggests Based on this new information, and technical issues that that early estimates of snow leopard population size re- emerged over the previous assessment, a categorization of flected the difficulty in detecting the species. Vulnerable was proposed, representing a change from the A further positive
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