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A Case Study on Venture Capital Mahidhara Davangere V., MBA, MFC, Msc (Maths), AIA, AIAI Managing Director, Pramartha Introduction

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A Case Study on Venture Capital Mahidhara Davangere V., MBA, MFC, Msc (Maths), AIA, AIAI Managing Director, Pramartha Introduction 1st Seminar on Finance & Investment 18th May 2018 Actuaries in Alternate Assets – A case study on Venture Capital Mahidhara Davangere V., MBA, MFC, MSc (Maths), AIA, AIAI Managing Director, Pramartha Introduction • Background • Actuarial Profession – Making financial sense of the future • Can Actuaries move into new fields www.actuariesindia.org Success stories Roelof Botha – Fellow of Faculty of Actuaries – MBA Stanford – CFO of Paypal – Director of Youtube – Partner at Sequoia Capital US – lead investments in Instagram, Evernote and Square “I get a thrill from watching companies thriving in the long- term, in the way that PayPal and YouTube have. I am inspired by the impact they have on the lives of hundreds of millions of people” - Roelof Botha www.actuariesindia.org Emerging wider fields for Actuaries • Investments – Fund Managers – Asset Managers – Venture Capital – Mergers and Acquisition • Enterprise Risk Management – Chief Risk Officers – Risk Analysts • Climate Change – Quantitative Climate Scientist – Quantitative Biological Analyst www.actuariesindia.org Venture Capital Industry www.actuariesindia.org Understanding Venture Capital Industry www.actuariesindia.org Understanding Venture Capital Life Cycle www.actuariesindia.org Venture Capital Industry Total World Financial Asset in Trillion USD 1000 900 900 300 800 700 207 600 600 500 172 400 393 300 221 200 100 0 Total world Financial Assets in Trillion USD Trillion in Assets Financialworld Total 1990 Growth 2000 Growth 2010 Growth 2020 78% 53% 50% Projected Source: International Monetary Fund www.actuariesindia.org Venture Capital Industry S&P 500 vs US Venture Capital Index Returns for year Ending Dec 31, 2015 30.0 28.5 24.7 25.0 20.0 16 15.0 11.4 8.2 10.0 7.2 10.9 6.9 4.1 4.5 5.0 1.7 7.1 0.0 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years US Venture Capital Returns S&P 500 Returns www.actuariesindia.org Top 5 Venture Capitalists in India Venture Investment Capitalist Portfolio (USD billion) Type of Fund Sequoia Seed Fund, Early stage, Growth Stage, Capital 117 1 Private Equity Helion Ventures 67 0.6 Seed Fund, Early Stage, Later Stage Nexus Ventures 77 1.2 Seed stage, Early Stage, Mature Stage Tiger Early Stage, later Stage, established Global 18 4.4 firm Kalaari Capital 65 0.65 Seed Fund, Early Stage, Later Stage Source- Venture Intelligence 2017 www.actuariesindia.org Sectorwise VC Investment in India Sector Percentage AI and IOT 25.3% Health Care 15.2% FinTech 13.6% Enterprise Software 8.8% Education 8.0% Food & Beverage 7.2% Retail 7.2% Travel & Tourism 5.6% Fashion 4.8% Total 100.0% Source- Venture Intelligence 2017 www.actuariesindia.org Risk and Challenges faced by the VCs Risk and Challenges Need Qualified •Product Risk Professionals to •Market adoption risk Manage VC RISK •Market size and timing risk •Financing risk •Execution risk •Management team risk •Business model risk •Technology risk •EXIT risk www.actuariesindia.org Problem with Human Judgement Alone !!! www.actuariesindia.org Actuarial Modelling Techniques in Investment Decision Making Zacharakis and Meyer (2000) suggested applying actuarial decision models to improve venture capital investment decisions “An actuarial model optimally combines decision cues (relevant information) to derive an answer. Thus actuarial models decompose decisions into component parts. Just as an insurance actuary statistically derives the payoff risk associated with different groups of people (i.e. age, gender, etc.), actuarial models can assess the probability of certain outcomes based upon information available to the decision.” www.actuariesindia.org Actuarial Control Cycle in Venture Capital Framework www.actuariesindia.org Define the problem – How to increase RAROC Reduce Risk of Failure Increase Return & Valuation Get the right Exit www.actuariesindia.org Develop Solution – Measure Risk Total Risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk (Beta) (Alpha) (External Uncertainty) (Internal Uncertainty) • Interest rate risk • Default risk • Foreign exchange risk • Management risk • Market risk • Business risk • Inflation risk • Financial risk • Political risk • Liquidity risk • Event risk • Holding period risk • Agency risk • Systematic Risk – Mitigate, Diversify Portfolio • Unsystematic Risk – Measuring, Monitoring and Controlling www.actuariesindia.org Develop Solution – Increase return Traditional Valuation Actuarial Valuation Techniques Techniques Approach Approach • Discounted Cash Flow • Bayesian Modelling • Market Multiple Techniques • Cost Based Approach • Real Options Analysis Factors Considered Factors Represent • Deterministic variables • Stochastic Variable • Current known / Market based • Asymmetric scenarios www.actuariesindia.org Develop Solution – Increase Valuation through Real Options Expanded NPV = Passive NPV (traditional method) + Option Premium (ROV) (Flexibility value + Strategic value) • Option to defer investment • Option to abandon staged investment • Option to expand or contract • Option to switch use • Corporate growth options www.actuariesindia.org Develop Solution – Real options in companies Financial Services Credit Suisse First Boston, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Beazer Homes Energy Anadarko, Chevron, Cinergy, ConEdison, Cons Products DuPont, LLBean, Procter & Gamble Transportation Airbus, Boeing, British Airways, IT Hewlett Packard, Intel, Ultratech Life Sciences Amgen, Genentech, Genzyme www.actuariesindia.org Monitor the Results – Risk Reporting Priority I risk – Group Chief Executive and Board level Priority II risk – Operating division’s Chief Executive level Priority III risk – General Managers’ level Priority IV risk – Managers’ level Priority V risk – Employees’ level Strategic residual risk heat map E 99% D >50% C >20% B >1% Likelihood Likelihood rating A <1% Consequence rating www.actuariesindia.org Monitor the Results – Risk Reporting www.actuariesindia.org Uniqueness of Actuarial Skills • Strong mathematical skills • Good modelling skills • Good understanding of ERM • Ability to quantify and deal with uncertainty • Professionalism Additional skills actuaries should know • Understanding new sector quickly • Business plan writing and evaluation • Understanding and developing novel valuation methods – Real option analysis www.actuariesindia.org Challenges for Actuaries to enter VC industry • Mind Set • High paying insurance sector • Lack of clear cut path • Lack of enough actuarial talent • Initial struggle to establish • No clear CPD • Regulators Unaware of Key Actuarial applications • Competition from other professionals – CA, CFA, FRM www.actuariesindia.org Evolving Actuarial Profession • Curriculum change bringing it closer to Broader Data Science skillset • CT Series transformed to Core Business, Core Statistics and Core Modeling • R programming integral part of syllabus across all the Actuarial Associations • Introduction of various roles for Actuaries besides Fellowship • Chartered Actuary (for Associates as Generalists) • Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary (CERA- risk related roles) • Certified Actuarial Analysts (CAA – at entry level) • ST/SA level papers on Banking, Finance and Investment www.actuariesindia.org The way forward – New Roads for Actuaries • New Strategic opportunities for actuaries in Venture Capital Industry • Islamic Venture Capital Management – new emerging field for actuaries • Novel risks in new ventures – Opportunity for Actuaries www.actuariesindia.org Questions MAHIDHARA DAVANGERE V Email: [email protected] Australia |India | Kenya | Malaysia | South Africa | UAE | US www.actuariesindia.org.
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