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Development of Methods for Estimating Demand Changes in Urban Transport Systems Due to Changes in Network Characteristics

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Development of Methods for Estimating Demand Changes in Urban Transport Systems Due to Changes in Network Characteristics National Technical University of Athens School of Civil Engineering Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING DEMAND CHANGES IN URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS DUE TO CHANGES IN NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS Ph. D. Dissertation Anastasia M. Pnevmatikou Civil –Transportation Engineer MSc Advisor: Matthew G. Karlaftis, Associate Professor Athens, January 2014 ................................... Αναστασία Μ. Πνευματικού Διδάκτωρ Πολιτικός Μηχανικός Ε.Μ.Π. Copyright © Αναστασία Μ. Πνευματικού, 2014. Με επιφύλαξη παντός δικαιώματος. All rights reserved. Απαγορεύεται η αντιγραφή, αποθήκευση και διανοµή της παρούσας εργασίας, εξ ολοκλήρου ή τµήµατος αυτής, για εµπορικό σκοπό. Επιτρέπεται η ανατύπωση, αποθήκευση και διανοµή για σκοπό µη κερδοσκοπικό, εκπαιδευτικής ή ερευνητικής φύσης, υπό την προϋπόθεση να αναφέρεται η πηγή προέλευσης και να διατηρείται το παρόν µήνυµα. Ερωτήµατα που αφορούν τη χρήση της εργασίας για κερδοσκοπικό σκοπό πρέπει να απευθύνονται προς το συγγραφέα. Οι απόψεις και τα συµπεράσµατα που περιέχονται σε αυτό το έγγραφο εκφράζουν το συγγραφέα και δεν πρέπει να ερµηνευθεί ότι αντιπροσωπεύουν τις επίσηµες θέσεις του Εθνικού Μετσόβιου Πολυτεχνείου. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements The journey was long and sometimes it felt like it would never end. Thanks to a few people I arrived at the ‘end’, if not the beginning of a new era. I am indebted to a great number of people who generously offered me advise, encouragement, inspiration and friendship throughout my time at NTUA. First and foremost, I would like to extend my genuine gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Matthew G. Karlaftis for being an excellent teacher and for supporting me throughout my PhD studies. From the beginning of my studies he encouraged me to conduct high quality research and the most important is that he was always next to me, guiding me and inspiring me throughout the four years of my candidature. I thank him for his patience, his accessibility and his invaluable ideas, which form the backbone of this dissertation. I would like to particularly acknowledge the greatly important contribution to my data collection to Dimitra Pyrgialakou who helped me collect the questionnaires, and the people who participated in my surveys. I also thank my friend Giannis Hatzidakis for providing vital assistance with my estimation programs and whose command of econometrics proved invaluable. I very much appreciate the valuable and constructive comments on my dissertation from Professor Dimitrios Tsampoulas and Professor Antonis Stathopoulos for their invaluable assistance at the very critical stage of writing up my dissertation. My sincere thanks to my colleague Christina Milioti, Ph.D candidate for her support. I will never forget our fruitful conversations regarding our next steps. I would also like to thank my friends, for providing great escapes from ΝTUA. At last by no means least, I thank my dad and my brother Dimitris, for their love, tolerance and belief. Finally thanks to my partner Nikos for his continuous support and patience during the last 4 years. Thank you for always being my pillar, my joy, and my lighting guide. Anastasia Pnevmatikou, Athens, 2014 Dedicated to the memory of my mother who made me who I am and to my father who taught me everything else, and and to my partner Nikos for his love and support. ΣΥΝΟΨΗ «Ανάπτυξη Μεθόδων Εκτίμησης της Μεταβολής της Ζήτησης Συστήματος Αστικών Μεταφορών λόγω Μεταβολής των Χαρακτηριστικών του Δικτύου» Αναστασία Μ. Πνευματικού Επιβλέπων: Ματθαίος Γ. Καρλαύτης, Αναπληρωτής Καθηγητής ΣΥΝΟΨΗ Η διδακτορική διατριβή διερευνά και αποτιμά τη μεταβολή στη χρήση μέσων σταθερής τροχιάς ως αποτέλεσμα διακοπών στη λειτουργίας τους. Η διερεύνηση αυτή παρουσιάζει σημαντικό ενδιαφέρον καθότι τα Συστήματα Μετρό αποτελούν τον ιστό κάθε μεταφορικού συστήματος αστικών συγκοινωνιών και κάθε διακοπή στη λειτουργία τους η οποία μπορεί να προκύπτει από διάφορους παράγοντες ενδέχεται να επηρεάσει σημαντικά εκατομμύρια επιβάτες αλλά και τη ζωή στην πόλη. Παρά το προφανές ενδιαφέρον στην αποτίμηση της επίπτωσης των διακοπών λειτουργίας των δικτύων Μετρό, το θέμα δεν έχει διερευνηθεί στη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία επαρκώς, πιθανόν λόγω της δυσκολίας στη συλλογή στοιχείων και τη σύνθετη μοντελοποίηση του φαινομένου. Για την ανάλυση του φαινομένου συλλέχθηκαν στοιχεία που αφορούν στους εναλλακτικούς τρόπους μετακίνησης χρηστών κατά τη διάρκεια διακοπής στη λειτουργία για 3 κατηγορίες μετακινούμενων. Οι χρήστες χωρίστηκαν σε 3 κατηγορίες: α) χρήστες που παρέμειναν στο δίκτυο Μετρό κατά τη διακοπή, β) χρήστες που υιοθέτησαν εναλλακτικά μέσα κατά τη διάρκεια της διακοπής και τέλος γ) χρήστες που υιοθέτησαν κάποιο εναλλακτικό μέσο κατά τη διάρκεια της διακοπής, αλλά συνέχισαν και μετά την αποκατάσταση της λειτουργίας του δικτύου Μετρό. Διερευνάται η επίδραση χαρακτηριστικών μετακίνησης, χαρακτηριστικών ταξιδιού και κοινωνικο-οικονομικών χαρακτηριστικών στη συμπεριφορά των μετακινούμενων κατά τη διάρκεια μιας διακοπής λειτουργίας Μετρό, χρησιμοποιώντας στρατηγικές αποκαλυπτόμενης και δεδηλωμένης προτίμησης για την ανάλυση των προτιμήσεων των χρηστών. Η ανάλυση των στοιχείων έγινε με μοντέλα Multinomial Logit, Multinomial Probit, Heteroskedastic Extreme Value και προέκυψαν οι σημαντικότερες μεταβλητές επιρροής που επιδρούν θετικά ή αρνητικά στη χρήση ενός μεταφορικού μέσου σε περιπτώσεις διακοπών στη λειτουργία των δικτύων Μετρό, για κάθε κατηγορία χρηστών και για κάθε μέθοδο συλλογής ερωτηματολογίων που χρησιμοποιήθηκε. Ανάμεσα στα κύρια ζητήματα που αναλύθηκαν είναι η συνδυαστική ανάλυση στοιχείων δεδηλωμένης και αποκαλυπτόμενης προτίμησης με την ανάπτυξη μοντέλων Nested Logit προκειμένου να ενισχυθούν οι δύο πηγές στοιχείων. Προσδιορίστηκαν οι ελαστικότητες για κάθε επίπεδο εξυπηρέτησης των μεταβλητών που περιγράφουν τα εναλλακτικά μέσα μεταφοράς στο πείραμα της δεδηλωμένης κατά τη διάρκεια μιας διακοπής σε ένα δίκτυο Μετρό. Από τα αποτελέσματα της έρευνας αποδεικνύεται ότι τα χαρακτηριστικά του μετακινούμενου φαίνεται να έχουν μεγαλύτερη επιρροή στην επιλογή μέσου στην περίπτωση διακοπών λειτουργίας, σε σχέση με τα χαρακτηριστικά του ταξιδιού. Αυτό υποδεικνύει ότι η επιλογή μέσου σε έκτακτες συνθήκες λειτουργίας σχετίζεται περισσότερο με σταθερές παραμέτρους όπως τα κοινωνικό- οικονομικά χαρακτηριστικά παρά με τη γενικότερη ωφέλεια που αποδίδει η χρήση κάθε μεταφορικού μέσου. Ανάμεσα στις μεταβλητές που εξετάστηκαν και βρέθηκαν να επηρεάζουν την επιλογή μέσου κατά τη διάρκεια τέτοιων διακοπών συμπεριλαμβάνονται το κόστος ταξιδιού, ο αριθμός των μετεπιβιβάσεων, η συνήθεια, η διαθεσιμότητα Ι.Χ., ο σκοπός της μετακίνησης, η ευελιξία στο ωράριο εργασίας καθώς και ο χρόνος μετακίνησης πριν και κατά τη διάρκεια της διακοπής. Τέλος, τα πορίσματα της διατριβής μπορούν να βοηθήσουν τους αρμόδιους φορείς Τοπικής Αυτοδιοίκησης και τους αρμόδιους φορείς σε θέματα λειτουργίας Αστικών συγκοινωνιών, ώστε να εφαρμόσουν πολιτικές στρατηγικής προωθώντας τη χρήση των ΜΜΜ, της δυναμικής συνοδήγησης και της τηλε-εργασίας και να υποκαταστήσουν ορθά τις μεταφορικές υπηρεσίες του Μετρό από επίγεια μέσα, χωρίς να επηρεάζουν τη ζωή στην πόλη. ABSTRACT “Development of Methods for Estimating Demand Changes in Urban Transport Systems due to Changes in Network Characteristics” Anastasia M. Pnevmatikou Supervisor: Matthew G. Karlaftis, Associate Professor ABSTRACT This dissertation explores the altered travel patterns as a result of disruptions in operation of Metro (Subway) Systems. This analysis is of particular interest as Metro Systems are the backbone of every urban network and every disruption in their operation as a result of various factors may significantly affect millions of travellers as well as the life in the city. Despite the obvious interest of analysing the impacts of the disruptions in operation of Metro Systems, this phenomenon has not been investigated enough in international bibliography, probably because of the difficulty in data collection and the complicated modelling of this phenomenon. For this analysis travel data was collected related to the various alternative ways of travel for three categories of travelers: a) travelers who remain on the partly disrupted network during the disruption, b) travelers who during closure shift to alternative modes, and return to the Metro system after the line’s restoration, and c) travelers who adopt an alternative mode even after the line’s restoration. For this analysis we use Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) techniques to explore the importance of trip and traveler characteristics and socio- demographic characteristics on travel patterns during a Metro closure. The analysis of this data was based on Multinomial Logit, Multinomial Probit and Heteroskedastic Extreme Value and resulted in the most significant parameters that affect positively or negatively the choice of mode in case of disruptions in Subway network, for each traveler category and for each data collection method used. The main themes addressed include a joint analysis of Revealed and Stated Preference data in the context of hierarchical designs (Nested Logit) so as to strengthen both data sources. Elasticities of various level- of-service variables associated to the travelling modes in the SP choice during a Metro disruption were determined for each alternative mode. Elasticities for each level-of- service variable and for each alternative mode during a hypothetical Subway closure were developed in the Stated Preference experiment. Results indicated that characteristics of the traveler who
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