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Population Estimates and Survey Methods for Migratory REPORT SERIES No. 5 Population Estimates and Survey Methods for Migratory Goose Species in Northern Kazakhstan (2016) by Richard Cuthbert (lead compiler) & Tomas Aarvak AEWA Lesser White-fronted Goose International Working Group Population Estimates and Survey Methods for Migratory Goose Species in Northern Kazakhstan (2016) AEWA Lesser White-fronted Goose International Working Group Report Series No. 5 February 2017 Prepared with funding from the Norwegian Environment Agency, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and WWT Compiled by Richard Cuthbert* 1 (lead compiler) and Tomas Aarvak** *Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), Slimbridge, Gloucestershire GL2 7BT, UK 1Conservation Solutions, 9 Prospect Drive, Belper, Derbyshire, DE561UY, UK Email: [email protected] **Norwegian Ornithological Society (BirdLife Norway), Sandgata 30 B, 7012 Trondheim, Norway Email: [email protected] With contributions from (field team): Emil Boros (Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Centre for Ecological Research, Balaton Limnological Institute), Toni Eskelin (LWfG Working Group of WWF Finland), Vasiliy Fedorenko (Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan), Risto Karvonen (LWfG Working Group of WWF Finland), Andrey Kovalenko (Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan), Samuli Lehikoinen (LWfG Working Group of WWF Finland), Nicky Petkov (Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds), Attila Szilágyi (Hortobágy National Park Directorate), Jànos Tar (Hortobágy National Park Directorate), Sami Timonen (LWfG Working Group of WWF Finland), Alexey Timoshenko (Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan), Konstantin Zhadan (Association for the 2 Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan) and Ivan Zuban (Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan). With input from: Baz Hughes (WWT), Geoff Hilton (WWT), Nina Mikander (UNEP/AEWA Secretariat) Recommended citation: Cuthbert, R. & Aarvak, T. (Compilers) 2016. Population Estimates and Survey Methods for Migratory Goose Species in Northern Kazakhstan. AEWA Lesser White-fronted Goose International Working Group Report Series No. 5. Bonn, Germany. 96pp. Photo on cover: Mixed species of geese feeding within stubble fields in Akmola. © A. Szilágyi Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on part of UNEP/AEWA. This includes issues concerning the legal status of any State, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of their frontiers and boundaries. 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2. Methods ............................................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Study area .................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Categorizing sites ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Sampling plan .................................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 Timing of surveys and reducing the likelihood of duplicate counts ........................................................... 13 2.4 Field survey methods ............................................................................................................................ 14 2.5 Analysis of count data ......................................................................................................................... 16 2.6 Relationships among species and predictors of geese occurrence ................................................................ 19 2.7 Estimating the total population of Lesser White-fronted Geese and Red-breasted Geese ......................... 20 3. Results ................................................................................................................................................ 23 3.1 Lakes covered and numbers ................................................................................................................. 23 3.2 Lesser White-fronted Geese ................................................................................................................. 25 3.3 Greater White-fronted Geese ............................................................................................................... 26 3.4 Red-breasted Geese .............................................................................................................................. 27 3.5 Greylag Geese and Ruddy Shelduck .................................................................................................... 28 3.6 Migrating birds and timing of survey .................................................................................................... 29 3.7 Species relationships and predictors of geese at lakes .............................................................................. 31 3.8 Population estimates for Lesser White-fronted Goose and Red-breasted Goose ...................................... 36 4. Discussion .......................................................................................................................................... 40 5. References .......................................................................................................................................... 43 Annex 1 – Survey methods and design.................................................................................................. 46 Estimating total numbers ........................................................................................................................... 47 Estimating species composition ................................................................................................................... 49 Standardizing count locations for lakes ....................................................................................................... 55 Overall survey design for monitoring and population estimates ..................................................................... 56 Appendices ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Appendix 1 Latitude and longitude for lake count locations in the 2016 survey ................................ 59 Appendix 2 Counts of geese at lakes for all four survey regions .......................................................... 61 Appendix 3 Records of other species for all four survey regions ........................................................... 65 Appendix 4 Sources of GIS information used in the analyses ............................................................ 86 Appendix 5 Estimating geese numbers at Taldykol and Kulikol lakes .............................................. 87 Appendix 6 Modified field monitoring instructions for Lesser White-fronted Goose ............................ 89 3 Executive Summary Northern Kazakhstan and adjoining areas of Russia are of key importance for Arctic breeding geese due to their use as staging grounds for birds as they move south to their wintering sites. The critical role of these areas for geese has long been recognized for the globally threatened Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus (LWfG) and Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis (RbG), as part of the Fennoscandian and the whole Russian Western Main subpopulations of LWfG and the entire global population of RbGs are believed to stage in these areas. As a consequence, international surveys of migratory geese have been undertaken in Northern Kazakhstan since 1996. In 2016 a team of Kazakh and international ornithologists visited Northern Kazakhstan for three weeks to undertake surveys across the region. Four survey teams departed from the city of Kostanay on 26th September to visit lakes in Akmola, Kostanay West, Kostanay North and North Kazakhstan count areas. The four teams surveyed a total of 80 lakes and recorded more than one million geese in the region. Geese were most abundant in the Akmola and Kostanay West count regions, with around 740,000 and 420,000 birds, respectively. Fewer geese were staging in North Kazakhstan and Kostanay North (~32,000 and ~18,000 birds), and observations of large numbers 4 of migrating birds in these two areas suggest that most geese were moving straight to the Akmola and Kostanay West survey areas in 2016. As was apparent in previous years, the Taldykol/Kulikol lake system in the Kostanay West survey area was of high importance as a staging site, with mixed flocks of geese totalling 348,150 birds present on 6th October. These two lakes held key numbers of LWfG and RbG and numbers at these lakes contributed 73% and 47%, respectively, of all records for these species. Greater White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons (GWfG) were the most abundant
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