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A Trial Application of The'default Method' Hydrologic Modelling for the Northern Basin Review January 2016 Published by the Murray–Darling Basin Authority GPO Box 1801, Canberra ACT 2601 MDBA publication no.: 35/16 02 6279 0100 ISBN (online): 978-1-921914-71-3 [email protected] © Murray–Darling Basin Authority 2016 With the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, mdba.gov.au the MDBA logo, trademarks and any exempt photographs and graphics (these are identified), this publication is provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 The Murray‒Darling Basin Authority’s preference is that you attribute this publication (and any Murray‒ Darling Basin Authority material sourced from it) using the following wording within your work: Title: Hydrologic modelling for the Northern Basin Review Source: Licensed from the Murray‒Darling Basin Authority under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Licence Accessibility The Murray‒Darling Basin Authority makes its documents and information available in accessible formats. On some occasions the highly technical nature of the document means that we cannot make some sections fully accessible. If you encounter accessibility problems or the document is in a format that you cannot access, please contact us. Acknowledgement of the Traditional Owners of the Murray–Darling Basin The Murray–Darling Basin Authority acknowledges and pays respect to the Traditional Owners, and their Nations, of the Murray–Darling Basin, who have a deep cultural, social, environmental, spiritual and economic connection to their lands and waters. The MDBA understands the need for recognition of Traditional Owner knowledge and cultural values in natural resource management associated with the Basin. The approach of Traditional Owners to caring for the natural landscape, including water, can be expressed in the words of the Northern Basin Aboriginal Nations Board: As the First Nations peoples (Traditional Owners) we are the knowledge holders, connected to Country and with the cultural authority to share our knowledge. We offer perspectives to balance and challenge other voices and viewpoints. We aspire to owning and managing water to protect our totemic obligations, to carry out our way of life, and to teach our younger generations to maintain our connections and heritage through our law and customs. When Country is happy, our spirits are happy. This report may contain quotes by Aboriginal people who have passed away. The use of terms ‘Aboriginal’ and ‘Indigenous’ reflects usage in different communities within the Murray–Darling Basin. Published by the Murray‒Darling Basin Authority Postal Address: GPO Box 1801, Canberra ACT 2601 Telephone: (02) 6279 0100 international + 61 2 6279 0100 Facsimile: (02) 6248 8053 international + 61 2 6248 8053 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.mdba.gov.au Cover image: Darling River near Bourke, NSW (photo by Josh Smith Photography) Hydrologic Modelling for the Northern Basin Review Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1. Northern Basin Review ................................................................................................... 4 1.2. Basin Plan Modelling ...................................................................................................... 5 1.3. The Need for Additional Northern Basin Modelling .......................................................... 9 1.4. Model Assumptions and Uncertainties .......................................................................... 10 1.4.1. Inherent Model Uncertainty ...................................................................................... 10 1.4.2. Basin Plan Model Uncertainty .................................................................................. 11 1.5. Scope of this Report ..................................................................................................... 11 2. Hydrologic Modelling Framework ....................................................................... 13 2.1. Queensland Models ...................................................................................................... 16 2.1.1. Paroo Model ............................................................................................................. 16 2.1.2. Moonie Model........................................................................................................... 16 2.1.3. Warrego Model ......................................................................................................... 17 2.1.4. Nebine Model ........................................................................................................... 17 2.1.5. Condamine-Balonne Model ...................................................................................... 17 2.1.6. Border Rivers ........................................................................................................... 18 2.2. New South Wales Models ............................................................................................. 19 2.2.1. Namoi ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.2. Gwydir ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.3. Macquarie-Castlereagh ............................................................................................ 20 2.2.4. Barwon-Darling ........................................................................................................ 21 2.3. Without Development Scenario ..................................................................................... 22 2.4. Baseline Scenario ......................................................................................................... 22 2.5. Basin Plan Scenarios .................................................................................................... 22 3. Flow and Connectivity Through the Northern Basin ......................................... 24 3.1. Climate, Rainfall, Flow and River Regulation ................................................................ 24 3.2. Connectivity .................................................................................................................. 26 3.3. Quantifying Northern Basin Connectivity ....................................................................... 26 4. Modelling Approach ............................................................................................. 32 4.1. Condamine–Balonne Modelling .................................................................................... 32 4.2. Whole-of-north Modelling .............................................................................................. 38 5. Modelling Methodology ....................................................................................... 44 5.1. Representing Water Recovery ...................................................................................... 44 Page i Hydrologic Modelling for the Northern Basin Review 5.1.1. Apportionment of the Shared Component ................................................................ 44 5.1.2. Representing Water Recovery in the Models ........................................................... 46 5.2. Representing Environmental Water Use ....................................................................... 49 5.2.1. Environmental Water Accounting in the Models ....................................................... 50 5.2.2. Demand Series for Local Outcomes ......................................................................... 51 5.2.3. Demand Series for Downstream Outcomes ............................................................. 59 5.2.4. Iterating a Model Scenario to Completion ................................................................. 67 5.2.5. Protection of Water in the Barwon–Darling ............................................................... 68 5.3. Model Output Analysis .................................................................................................. 69 6. Condamine–Balonne Scenarios .......................................................................... 71 6.1. Model Package 1 — Location of Recovery ................................................................... 74 6.1.1. Recovery Upstream of Beardmore Dam ................................................................... 74 6.1.2. Flow to the Narran Lakes ......................................................................................... 79 6.2. Model Package 2 — Entitlement Type Dependence ..................................................... 81 6.2.1. Unregulated Entitlement Mix .................................................................................... 82 6.2.2. Regulated Recovery ................................................................................................. 87 6.3. Model Package 3 — Horizontal Slicing ......................................................................... 89 6.4. Model Package 4 — SDL Sensitivity ............................................................................. 93 7. Whole-of-north Scenarios ................................................................................. 102 7.1. SDL Sensitivity ...........................................................................................................
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