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Role Models and Migration Intentions Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Björn Nilsson

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Role Models and Migration Intentions Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Björn Nilsson Role models and migration intentions Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Björn Nilsson To cite this version: Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, Björn Nilsson. Role models and migration intentions. 2021. hal-03105639 HAL Id: hal-03105639 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03105639 Preprint submitted on 11 Jan 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Authors Sandrine Mesplé-Somps and Björn Nilsson Coordination Rohen d’Aiglepierre Research and Anda David papers intentions and migration Role models No. 200 No. 2020 DECEMBER Agence française de développement Papiers de recherche Research Papers Les Papiers de Recherche de l’AFD ont pour but AFD Research Papers are intended to rapidly de diffuser rapidement les résultats de travaux en disseminate findings of ongoing work and mainly cours. Ils s’adressent principalement aux chercheurs, target researchers, students and the wider academic aux étudiants et au monde académique. Ils community. They cover the full range of AFD work, couvrent l’ensemble des sujets de travail de l’AFD : including: economic analysis, economic theory, analyse économique, théorie économique, analyse policy analysis, engineering sciences, sociology, des politiques publiques, sciences de l’ingénieur, geography and anthropology. AFD Research Papers sociologie, géographie et anthropologie. Une and other publications are not mutually exclusive. publication dans les Papiers de Recherche de l’AFD n’en exclut aucune autre. Les opinions exprimées dans ce papier sont The opinions expressed in this paper are those of celles de son (ses) auteur(s) et ne reflètent pas the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the nécessairement celles de l’AFD. Ce document est position of AFD. It is therefore published under the publié sous l’entière responsabilité de son (ses) sole responsibility of its author(s). auteur(s). 1 Role models and migration intentions Sandrine Mesplé-Somps Keywords IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, Information provision, role PSL Research University, CNRS, models, migration intentions, LEDa, DIAL aspirations, Mali. Björn Nilsson Université Paris-Saclay, DIAL Abstract Acknowledgements Role models—those individuals We are grateful to members who resemble us but have of the data collection team: achieved more than us— Ousmane Traoré, Seydou Koné, are thought to impact our Sidi Yaya Traoré, Dramane aspirations. In this paper, Danfaga, Amadou Traoré, we study the impact of role Moussa Koné, Lassina Cissé, models on intentions to migrate. Siaka Coulibaly, Adama Fomba, Specifically, we implement a Sekou Coulibaly and Mamoutou randomized controlled trial to Konaré, as well as supervisors show documentaries in rural Amadou Traoré, Idrissa Diabaté villages of Mali (Kayes region). and Gaston Sodio. We also These documentaries focus thank Sidylamine Bagayoko on economic opportunities and Mohamed Dou for filming and show either negative or the documentaries used in our positive portraits of migrants, intervention. Our gratitude also or portraits of local people extends to participants of the th who have successfully set up 13 Migration and Development st flourishing businesses without conference, the 1 DIAL-Crest ever considering migration. workshop, and the RITM internal This paper adds to the larger seminar at Université Paris- debate about the efficiency of Saclay for insightful comments. information provision. We find The project received funding very few significant impacts, from the Swedish Ministry of none of which hold when attrition Foreign Affairs, and the French is controlled for using non- Development Agency. We also parametric Lee bounds. We thank the internal review board also implement a treatment of the Paris School of Economics heterogeneity analysis using for approving our experimental a causal forest algorithm, protocol. The trial is registered at which aside from confirming https://www.socialscienceregistry our average treatment effects .org/trials/4423. suggests the presence of heterogeneity. It appears that individuals with living conditions JEL Classification that could facilitate migration D8, D9, J61, O15. are less likely to be significantly impacted. The high aspirations to improve living conditions, coupled with a strong feeling of Original version lack of control over the future English may help explaining the fact that confrontations with real life experiences do not significantly Accepted modify average aspirations to November 2020 migrate. 2 Résumé qui ont réussi à créer des faciliter la migration sont moins On pense que les modèles, ces entreprises florissantes sans susceptibles d’être touchées individus qui nous ressemblent jamais envisager de migrer. Ce de manière significative. Les mais qui ont accompli plus que document s’ajoute au débat aspirations élevées à améliorer nous, ont un impact sur nos plus large sur l’efficacité de la les conditions de vie, associées aspirations. Dans cet article, nous fourniture d’informations. Nous à un fort sentiment de manque étudions l’impact des exemples à trouvons très peu d’impacts de contrôle sur l’avenir, peuvent suivre sur les intentions significatifs, dont aucun ne tient contribuer à expliquer le fait d’émigration. Plus précisément, lorsque l’attrition est contrôlée que les confrontations avec nous mettons en œuvre un essai en utilisant des bornes de des expériences de vie réelles contrôlé et randomisé qui Lee non paramétriques. Nous ne modifient pas de manière consiste à montrer des mettons également en œuvre significative les aspirations documentaires dans des villages une analyse d’hétérogénéité moyennes à migrer. ruraux du Mali (région de Kayes). de traitement à l’aide d’un Ces documentaires se algorithme de forêt causale, qui, concentrent sur les opportunités outre la confirmation de nos Mots-clés économiques et montrent soit effets moyens de traitement, Fourniture d’informations, des portraits négatifs ou positifs suggère la présence d’une modèles à suivre, intentions de de migrants, soit des portraits de hétérogénéité. Il semble migration, aspirations, Mali. populations locales que les personnes dont les conditions de vie pourraient 3 Introduction people. Studies examining the causal impact of such campaigns are almost Concern about increased migration non-existent, two exceptions being Bryan from Sub-Saharan African countries has et al. (2014) and Beam et al. (2016), which prompted international organizations look at the impact of information in two 2 such as the International Organization Asian countries. Bryan et al. (2014) analyze for Migration (IOM) and the European the causes of internal seasonal migration Commission to fund information in Bangladesh by randomly assigning campaigns to influence perceptions incentives to migrate, one of which is of migration in Sub-Saharan Africa. information on types of jobs available 3 For instance, the IOM project Aware in pre-selected destinations. Beam migrants1 produces music videos and et al. (2016) conducted an experiment in short documentaries in association with a rural province of the Philippines, and African artists and media bodies for analyze the impact of unilateral facilitation, circulation in African countries. The which takes the form of information European Commission’s 2014-2020 Asylum provision, assistance and a subsidy for and Migration Fund finances information a passport application. Both articles campaigns on the dangers of irregular conclude that providing information about migration for broadcast in Sub-Saharan job opportunities at the destination does countries every year. The rationale not generate any impact on migration behind these campaigns is to discourage behaviors. They also suggest that it is irregular migration, if not migration per not so much the lack of information on se. Other campaigns are designed to the economic opportunities of migration expand the base of information available that prevents people from migrating but to potential and current migrants. the fact that financial constraints and risk Examples of this are InfoMigrants, a aversion, particularly in such a context of partnership of three European news extreme poverty like Bangladesh, are too agencies providing information available strong to make the decision to migrate, to migrants on their journey, and Telling even if this decision is beneficial for the the real story, a UNHCR-funded source of economic well-being of all. personal accounts told by Ethiopian and Somalian migrants who have crossed the These conclusions are fairly consistent with Mediterranean sea. the evidence from information campaigns conducted in the area of health. Several The objective of this article is to examine studies have shown that the usual the effects of the transmission of information campaigns produced by information on the intentions to migrate NGOs or public information organizations internationally and internally of Malian fail to change opinions and behaviors 1http://awaremigrants.org/, funded by the Italian Ministry of the Interior. 2See Tjaden et al. (2018) for a systematic literature review on evaluations of information campaigns
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