Article Mixed Effectiveness of REDD+ Subnational Initiatives after 10 Years of Interventions on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico Edward A. Ellis 1,* , José Antonio Sierra-Huelsz 2, Gustavo Celestino Ortíz Ceballos 3 , Citlalli López Binnqüist 1 and Carlos R. Cerdán 3 1 Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz 91000, Mexico;
[email protected] 2 People and Plants International, Bristol, VT 05443, USA;
[email protected] 3 Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz 91000, Mexico;
[email protected] (G.C.O.C.);
[email protected] (C.R.C.) * Correspondence:
[email protected] Received: 18 July 2020; Accepted: 11 September 2020; Published: 17 September 2020 Abstract: Since 2010, the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism has been implemented in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, a biodiversity hotspot with persistent deforestation problems. We apply the before-after-control-intervention approach and quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the effectiveness of REDD+ interventions in reducing deforestation at municipal (meso) and community (micro) scales. Difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching did not show an overall reduction in forest cover loss from REDD+ projects at both scales. However, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) analyses demonstrated mixed REDD+ effectiveness among intervened municipalities and communities. Funding agencies and number of REDD+ projects intervening in a municipality or community did not appear to affect REDD+ outcomes. However, cattle production and commercial agriculture land uses tended to impede REDD+ effectiveness. Cases of communities with important forestry enterprises exemplified reduced forest cover loss but not when cattle production was present. Communities and municipalities with negative REDD+ outcomes were notable along the southern region bordering Guatemala and Belize, a remote forest frontier fraught with illegal activities and socio-environmental conflicts.