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INGEN ANLEDNING TILL ORO (?) INGEN År 2020, Det Som Skulle Bli Så Festligt

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INGEN ANLEDNING TILL ORO (?) INGEN År 2020, Det Som Skulle Bli Så Festligt 2021 INGEN ANLEDNING TILL ORO (?) INGEN År 2020, det som skulle bli så festligt. 10-talet var slut, ett nytt decennium låg framför oss – Ljuva framtid. Sedan kom pandemin. 2020 är coronapande- mins år. Bokens titel Ingen anledning till oro (?) knyter an till den smittskydds- expert som för svenska folket var helt okänd vid tillfället och som i slutet av januari 2020 bedömde att det inte fanns någon anledning till oro. Smitt- ANLEDNING skyddsexperten kom senare att bli hela svenska folkets statsepidemiolog, hela svenska folkets egen Anders, Anders Tegnell. Trots att nyhetsbruset har dominerats av corona och covid-19 under året som gått har den inte helt tagit över nyhetsagendan. På den nationella scenen var TILL ORO (?) 2020 också – återigen – ett år fyllt av intensiva debatter om gängkriminalitet, grova våldsbrott och våldsbejakande extremism. Det svenska partilandskapet befinner sig fortsatt i en omstruktureringens tidevarv, där den politiska kartan successivt ritas om. Valåret 2022 närmar sig med stormsteg och som vi presen- terar i denna bok finns det många saker som oroar svenska folket. Vilka partier eller konstellationer som lyckas fånga upp denna oro och erbjuda en trygg hamn återstår att se. Med utgångspunkt i 2020 års nationella SOM-undersökning – den 35:e i ord- ningen – söker boken fördjupa kunskapen om hur människors vanor och opinio- ner såg ut under året, hur dessa har förändrats under 2010-talet samt vad som eventuellt väntar i början av ett nytt decennium. Ett 40-tal forskare från olika discipliner vid universitet och högskolor i Sverige medverkar med analyser. Ingen anledning till oro (?) är den 78:e forskarantologin från SOM-institutet. Marie Grusell & Patrik Öhberg (red) Ulrika Andersson, Anders Carlander, Bokens innehåll berör på många sätt oro som på sina håll kan skönjas i det svenska samhället när det gäller (S)amhälle, (O)pinion och (M)edier. Ulrika Andersson, Anders Carlander, 78 Marie Grusell & Patrik Öhberg (red) Ingen anledning till oro (?) SOM-undersökningen 2020 SOM-rapport nr 78 Ulrika Andersson, Anders Carlander, Marie Grusell och Patrik Öhberg (red) Redaktörer: Ulrika Andersson, Anders Carlander, Marie Grusell och Patrik Öhberg © Författarna och SOM-institutet Teknisk redaktör: Elisabeth Falk Originalfoto: Anna Shvets (Pexels), modifierat Omslag: Daniel Zachrisson Redigering: Henny Östlund Tryck: RisbergsAdbox, Uddevalla 2021 ISBN: 978-91-89673-49-6 ISSN: 0284-4788 ISRN: GU-STJM--78-SE INNEHÅLL Förord 9 Ingen anledning till oro (?) – inledningskapitel Ulrika Andersson, Anders Carlander, Marie Grusell och Patrik Öhberg 11 TILLIT & FÖRTROENDE Framgång föder förtroende – förtroende föder framgång Sören Holmberg och Bo Rothstein 33 Förtroende för samhällets och pandemins aktörer Elisabeth Falk och Ulrika Andersson 43 Mediers samhällsvärde och oberoende spelar stor roll för förtroendet Ulrika Andersson 57 Forskningsförtroende i pandemitider Anna Maria Jönsson 75 VARDAGSLIV, MEDIER & HÄLSA Tilltron till den egna förmågan under coronapandemin Gabriella Sandstig och Synneve Dahlin Ivanoff 93 Folkhälsa och ekonomi i alkoholpolitiken David Karlsson, Sören Holmberg och Lennart Weibull 105 Stereotypa föreställningar om ålder under coronapandemin Gabriella Sandstig och Maria Edström 119 Litar svenska folket på socialförsäkringarna? Maria Oskarson och Anna Bendz 133 Ljudboken tar nya tag – populär både via bibliotek och prenumerationstjänst Birgitta Wallin, Tobias Carlsson och David Gunnarsson Lorentzen 153 5 Biblioteken fortsatt starka trots kristid Jonas Söderholm, Malin Ögland och David Gunnarsson Lorentzen 165 Ideologisk identifikation och fragmenterade nyhetspubliker Per Oleskog Tryggvason 179 MILJÖ & KLIMAT Släcka ljuset – varför då? Sverker C. Jagers, Erik Jönsson och Simon Matti 197 Kärnkraftsstrid i pandemitid Sören Holmberg 211 Vindkraftens förutsättningar Erik Jönsson 221 Svenska klimatförnekare Henrik Oscarsson, Jesper Strömbäck och Erik Jönsson 235 SAMHÄLLE & OPINION Stabilt stöd för EU under pandemin, men vart är unionen på väg? Marcus Weissenbilder och Ulrika Andersson 251 De politiska sakfrågorna inför valet 2022 – hur ser spelplanen ut? Johan Martinsson 271 Ökad uppskattning av offentlig verksamhet pandemiåret 2020 Sören Holmberg 285 Ett svenskt vintermord får en upplösning? Medborgare och politiker om nedläggningen av Palmeutredningen och utpekandet av Skandiamannen Felix Andersson, Daniel Brodén och Patrik Öhberg 293 Det kalla krigets återkomst? Från osannolikhet till tänkbar hotbild Joakim Berndtsson, Ulf Bjereld och Karl Ydén 303 Vilka var det som ändrade sig om flyktingpolitiken efter 2015? Marie Demker 317 6 Kriminalpolitik – lika hett som man kan tro Felix Andersson, Marie Demker, Caroline Mellgren och Patrik Öhberg 333 Biståndsviljan försvagas Ann-Marie Ekengren och Henrik Oscarsson 345 Oförsiktiga och oskyldiga brottsoffer – en jämförelse av uppfattningar om ansvar Caroline Mellgren och Marie Demker 361 Vem räds terrorismen? Kluven oro och säkerhetsivrare i Sverige Daniel Brodén, Mats Fridlund och Patrik Öhberg 375 PARTIER & POLITIK Är verkligen allt politik? Thomas Denk och Carl Görtz 389 Politiska uppfattningar bland kvinnor och män som har barn i hushållet Elin Naurin och Patrik Öhberg 401 Ledare vi gillar och ogillar Per Oleskog Tryggvason, Henrik Oscarsson och Freja Wessman 415 Vilka politiska förslag tycker mammor och pappor är viktigast? Elias Markstedt, Elin Naurin och Anton Wallin 429 METODREDOVISNING Den nationella SOM-undersökningen 2020 Elisabeth Falk 447 BILAGOR Om författarna 459 SOM-institutets böcker 465 7 FÖRORD Ingen anledning till oro (?) är SOM-institutets 78:e forskarantologi sedan star- ten 1986. Den bygger på 2020 års nationella SOM-undersökning – den 35:e i ordningen. Undersökningen genomfördes som sex riksrepresentativa urval om vardera 3 750 slumpmässigt utvalda personer boende i Sverige i åldrarna 16 till 85 år. De sex delundersökningarna är att betrakta som editioner av samma studie. Uppsättningen av enkätfrågor varierar något mellan editionerna men de innehåller också ett stort antal gemensamma frågor om samhälle, opinion och medier samt demografi och bakgrund. Huvuddelen av de svar som ligger till grund för analyserna i boken inkom under oktober 2020. Ansvarig för datainsamlingen har varit Indikator – Institutet för kvalitetsindikatorer med Edvin Boije som fältledare. Närmare uppgifter om under- sökningens uppläggning och genomförande finns i metodredovisningen längst bak i boken. En mer utförlig dokumentation av 2020 års SOM-undersökningar finns att ladda ner på SOM-institutets webbplats (SOM-rapport 2021:2). I boken medverkar forskare från olika ämnesområden och lärosäten. De sam- manlagt trettioen kapitlen speglar den ämnesmässiga bredd som finns i SOM- undersökningarna. Varje författare svarar själv för sin tolkning av data och slut- satserna i respektive kapitel. Dataunderlaget från tidigare SOM-undersökningar är tillgängliga för akademisk forskning och utbildning via Svensk Nationell Datatjänst (SND) vid Göteborgs universitet. De publikationer som hittills utgivits av SOM-institutet finns förteck- nade längst bak i föreliggande volym. Mer information om SOM-institutet finns på institutets webbplats. Göteborg i juni 2021 Ulrika Andersson Anders Carlander Docent Forskare SOM-institutet SOM-institutet Marie Grusell Patrik Öhberg Docent Docent JMG, Göteborgs universitet SOM-institutet 9 Ingen anledning till oro (?) INGEN ANLEDNING TILL ORO (?) ULRIKA ANDERSSON, ANDERS CARLANDER, MARIE GRUSELL OCH PATRIK ÖHBERG Var inte rädd för mörkret, ty ljuset vilar där. Vi ser ju inga stjärnor, där intet mörker är. I ljusa irisringen, du bär en mörk pupill. Ty mörkt är allt som ljuset, med bävan längtar till. Var inte rädd för mörkret, ty ljuset vilar där. Var inte rädd för mörkret, som ljusets hjärta bär. Erik Blomberg Diktsamling: ”Jorden” 1920 andemin är ännu inte över, men vi börjar att se ett slut. Därborta vid horisonten Pskönjer vi ett skimmer, en dimma som lättar och ger oss nytt ljus. Efter drygt ett år av stängda gränser, social distansering och för många förlusten av nära och kära, tycks vår vardag vara på väg tillbaka. Eller i alla fall någon form av ny vardag, en tid som alltjämt präglas av handtvätt, vaccinering och munskydd. Livet som vi minns det före covid-19, finns inte kvar. Mitt i detta livsomställande läge är det lätt att glömma att pandemier har inträffat förr. Covid-19 är vare sig unik eller särskilt dödlig jämfört med tidigare pandemier. Men här och nu är oron stor. Även om vacciner har börjat produceras och distribueras i stor skala, är det fortfarande oklart hur pandemiläget kommer att utvecklas ur ett globalt perspektiv. Att minska spridning och att distribuera vaccinationsskydd är fortfarande livsavgörande för att pandemin skall få ett slut. I spåren av pandemin står vi nu inför en mängd nya utmaningar; var och hur människor bor och arbetar, klimatfrågan, den politiska kartan som de senaste åren successivt ritats om. Men även kulturella värderingar som frågor om identitet, globalisering, kultur och gränsdragning av nationalstatens ansvarsområden har blivit än mer centrala. Prognoser för hur de politiska vindarna blåser låter sig inte lätteligen göras i vanliga fall, än mindre under en pandemi. Det är mot bakgrund av denna verklighet som årets forskarantologi från SOM- institutet har fått sitt namn: INGEN ANLEDNING TILL ORO (?). Titeln knyter direkt an till Sveriges inledande ställningstagande kring viruset där risken för en pandemi tonades ner. I slutet av januari 2020 konstaterade Anders Tegnell, stats- epidemiolog på Folkhälsomyndigheten
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