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PARTY POLARIZATION on ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES: Toward Prospects for Change

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PARTY POLARIZATION on ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES: Toward Prospects for Change Research Paper PARTY POLARIZATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES: Toward Prospects for Change David Karol Associate Professor Department of Government and Politics University of Maryland May 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In American politics, a growing partisan divide on the environment is making environmental reforms seem further out of reach. In this research paper, scorecards from the League of Conservation Voters are used to examine the growth of this divide between the 91st and 114th Congresses, revealing a sorting of Members of Congress into strong anti- and pro-environment positioning along party lines. The paper examines how shifting constituencies, party geography, and personal characteristics have affected the positions taken by members of Congress, finding that the role of party affiliation in determining environmental scores has grown continuously since the late 1970s. In the second part, the paper examines how this partisan gap may be eroded by changing demographics, industry influence, and shifts in coalitional dynamics affecting Republican Members of Congress’ stances on climate change. The role of present-day coalitions in determining politicians’ preferences will only hold as long as political costs remain small. If political costs were to rise, then coalitional allies would likely follow Members of Congress to more pro-environmental positions. Anticipating such a shift, some Republicans may take forward positions on environmental issues to gather a reputation for issue leadership and distinguishing media attention. The growth in the number of Republican members of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus in the House of Representatives may indicate that Members of Congress are taking such enterprising actions. NISKANEN CENTER | 820 FIRST ST. NE, SUITE 675 | WASHINGTON, D.C. 20002 www.niskanencenter.org | For inquiries, please contact [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 The Rise of Environmentalism .................................................................................................................................................... 1 PART I: THE GROWING PARTY DIVIDE ON ENVIRONMENTALISM ................................................................ 1 Measuring the Divide ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2 MCs and the Environment: A Multivariate Analysis ......................................................................................................... 6 Changing Preferences: Modeling LCV Scores from the 92nd Congress (1971-1972) to the 114th Congress (2015-2016) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Party Coalitions, Interest Groups, and Campaign Finance ............................................................................................. 9 Polarization in Public Opinion on Environmental Issues ............................................................................................... 11 PART II: PROSPECTS FOR CHANGE ................................................................................................................................... 15 Peak Polarization? .......................................................................................................................................................................... 15 A Republican Coalition in Demographic Decline ............................................................................................................. 17 Young GOP Voters are More Pro-Environment ................................................................................................................ 17 The Declining Fossil Fuel Sector .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Renewable Energy as Counterbalance? .................................................................................................................................. 19 Building Credibility and Winning Attention ...................................................................................................................... 19 Cracks in the Wall? The Climate Solutions Caucus ......................................................................................................... 20 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX - REGRESSION TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 25 A.1 - Multiple regression coefficients for LCV Scores in the U.S. House of Representatives ............................. 25 A.2 - Multiple regression coefficients for LCV Scores in the U.S. Senate ................................................................ 26 INTRODUCTION A thorough explanation for the rise of environmentalism is beyond the scope of this In this paper, I explore the growing party divide paper, but a few points may be noted. This on environmental issues. Understanding the roots development was not unique to the United States, of this division is interesting in its own right, but but rather occurred throughout the industrialized may also reveal how it might change. This is a key world. Visible pollution (e.g., the mid-twentieth question since even in this polarized era few century smog in Los Angeles and the fire at the major laws are enacted entirely by one party Cuyahoga River in Cleveland) was a factor. A (Curry and Lee 2017). A crack in the wall of leading account stresses the rise of partisanship on the environment may be needed “postmaterialist” values in societies that have to address climate change in a serious way. experienced peace and prosperity for decades (Inglehart 1995). Once basic needs are met, quality I chart the rise of the partisan divide on the of life become more salient, and environment and put it in context among other environmentalism is an expression of this. cases of party position change. I then consider prospects for change, focusing on reasons why PART I: THE GROWING some Republicans, who are an outlier among conservative parties worldwide, may revisit their PARTY DIVIDE ON policy positions, especially on the subject of ENVIRONMENTALISM climate change. The relatively recent emergence of the The Rise of Environmentalism environmental issue contrasts with questions like trade policy or race, which have been contested Environmentalism is a relatively new issue, th since before the American Revolution. Other historically speaking. At the beginning of the 20 issues, such as the regulation of labor unions, have century, the question of “conservation” was briefly been debated for over a century. In this sense, the prominent in the fight between progressive politics of the environment resembles debates Republicans led by Theodore Roosevelt and the over “social issues” like gun control, abortion and GOP “Old Guard” allied with William Howard LGBT rights. Like environmentalism, these issues Taft (Richardson 1958). Yet the conservation arose in the 1960s, when polarization was at its controversy did not endure. In subsequent nadir. Initially, these new issues divided elected decades, environmental issues as we now officials and voters along regional and religious understand them were largely absent from lines, at least as much as party ones. While national debates and party competition. Democrats and Republicans continue to disagree Environmental consciousness grew in the 1960s on topics that emerged during the New Deal era, and early 1970s. Key milestones in this trend like labor regulation and the welfare state, these included the publication of Silent Spring by newer issues, including environmental policy, Rachel Carson in 1962 and the first Earth Day in have supplemented rather than replaced the older 1970. Environmental organizations expanded and controversies in a process Layman et al (2010) call multiplied during this period. New groups “conflict extension.” including the League of Conservation Voters, When a movement brings an issue to the fore, Friends of the Earth, and the Natural Resources however, a partisan divide is not the only Defense Council arose while the membership of possibility. Reformers may win over elected older organizations like the Sierra Club expanded. officials in both parties and achieve victory for The Washington presence of environmental their cause, eventually removing it from public organizations and their role in elections debate. correspondingly increased (Mitchell, Mertig and Dunlap 1991). Party Polarization on Environmental Issues | 1 Alternatively, an issue may remain on the political Ronald Reagan was the key figure in defining agenda for an extended period, but cut across party differences.i Reagan allied with the pro- party lines. A prominent example is “the liquor development “Sagebrush Rebellion,” telling a question.” Supporters of Prohibition (or “drys”) crowd, “count me in as a rebel.”ii Party platforms and opponents (or “wets”) were numerous in both also showed a
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