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Monthly News Scan MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 25 Issue 4 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 30 April 2020 HIGHLIGHTS again from the global coronavirus Index since it began more than two FOCUS pandemic. The poll found China’s decades ago. The report is a grim gross domestic product (GDP) was preview for European leaders, who Coronavirus: World economy expected to grow just 1.3% in the will discuss a possible 2 trillion-euro • current quarter on a year earlier, after (S$3.1 trillion) rescue plan for the ‘may face double recession’ contracting 6.8% in January-March. region. (23 April, The Straits Times) • Coronavirus: Asian economies won’t grow this year, says IMF (23 April, Reuters) • Malaysia more resilient than many Aussie economy to shrink 10% in countries: World Bank Japan’s factory output, retail sales first half-year: RBA: Australia will • Malaysia’s economy to bounce slump as virus hits economy: suffer its biggest economic back to 9 percent in 2021, says Japan’s March factory output fell at contraction since the 1930s in the first IMF the fastest pace in five months, while half of this year due to coronavirus- • RM553m additional expenditure retail sales also dropped as businesses driven mobility curbs, the central bank enactment passed struggled with the coronavirus governor said. Reserve Bank of • 169,630 Covid-19 aid recipients pandemic’s sharp hit to overseas and Australia (RBA) governor Philip targeted domestic demand. The global Lowe said in a speech in Sydney that economy could suffer its worst the country's national output would INTERNATIONAL downturn this year since the Great fall by around 10 per cent in the first ANTARABANGSA Depression of the 1930s due to a half-year, with most of this decline virus-driven collapse of activity, with taking place in the April-June quarter. Coronavirus: World economy ‘may Japan’s economy facing stagnation Unemployment is likely to be around face double recession’: The world due to its export dependence and soft 10 per cent by June as total hours economy already faces an economic domestic consumption. (30 April, worked are likely to decline by around downturn worse than the Great Reuters) 20 per cent, he added. (22 April, The Depression. But this could be Straits Times) followed by another “possibly much Singapore sees sharper economic worse downturn”, according to the slump on global coronavirus Coronavirus: Huge economic spread: Singapore is bracing itself for Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). rescue plan agreed by EU leaders: A World governments are giving a sharper economic contraction this year than an earlier forecast of a slump plan for injecting billions of euros of trillions of dollars in stimulus emergency aid into Europe’s battered packages to help prop up their of as much as 4 per cent, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to economies has been agreed by EU economies. Sovereign debts that they heads. Meeting via video, they agreed are racking up may push the global spread globally and disrupts supply chains. The city-state is “very likely” to set up a massive recovery fund, economy into a second recession, the closely tied to the bloc’s seven-year EIU warns. (15 April, BBC News) to see a steeper fall in gross domestic product (GDP), Trade and Industry budget. They also confirmed that Coronavirus: Asian economies Minister Chan Chun Sing said on €540bn (£470bn) of financial support won’t grow this year, says IMF: Thursday (April 23) in an interview would be released through existing Economies in Asia will see zero with Bloomberg Television's Haslinda mechanisms from 1 June. European growth this year for the first time in 60 Amin. “We are really concerned that Commission chief Ursula von der years, the International Monetary worldwide, this is going to lead to a Leyen said the fund would mobilise Fund (IMF) has said. Its bleak outlook more serious problem than many had €1 trillion of investment. (23 April, for the region comes as it warns the anticipated just a month ago.” (23 BBC News) global economy will face the “worst April, The Straits Times) recession since the Great Depression”. Coronavirus: Eurozone economy Asia’s service sector in particular will Europe’s coronavirus lockdown shrinks at record rate: The eurozone struggle to rebound, it said. Airlines, pushes economy into record economy shrank at the sharpest pace factories, shops and restaurants have slump: Europe’s economy suffered a on record in the first quarter as the been “hard hit” by national massive blow in April when Covid-19 pandemic forced countries lockdowns. (16 April, BBC News) government restrictions to contain the into lockdown.A first estimate of GDP coronavirus left companies between January and March showed a China on slow road to recovery, but scrambling to stay afloat. An estimate contraction of 3.8%, worse than recession risk is high: Reuters poll: of private-sector activity in the euro during the financial crisis. Separate The Chinese economy will slowly area plunged to just 13.5 from 29.7 in figures revealed a steep fall in recover from its first quarterly March, according to IHS Markit on economic activity in France and Spain contraction since current records Thursday (April 23). The drop was far over the same period. In Germany, began, economists predicted in a sharper than economists had unemployment has increased though it Reuters poll, but they warned of a anticipated and marks the lowest remains relatively low compared with likely recession if conditions worsen reading for the Purchasing Managers’ other nations. (30 April, BBC News) 1 – 30 April 2020 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 year to post a gross domestic product Malaysia to reset its aviation industry NATIONAL (GDP) of RM1.47 trillion under the and become profitable, says an NASIONAL best possible scenario, if the analyst. Sobie Aviation independent Movement Control Order (MCO) only analyst and consultant Brendan Sobie Malaysia more resilient than many lasts until April 28, according to a said the local aviation industry was countries: World Bank: The World think tank. The country’s economy already at a critical juncture even Bank says Malaysia will be deeply can also contract 1.02 per cent with a before COVID-19, with all six airlines affected by the Covid-19 shocks but GDP of RM1.41 trillion under the unprofitable in 2019 and the market there are a slew of factors that make it worst case scenario, according to the suffering from overcapacity. The more resilient than many other Malaysian Institute of Economic government, he said, has a lot of countries. Malaysia has, among Research (Mier). Mier Deputy others, a diversified economic Director Professor Dr Jamal Othman initiatives for a reset, but the situation structure and sound track record of said this was based on the world oil has become more important now as macroeconomic management, the price of around US$35 per barrel in the industry is bleeding really badly World Bank Malaysia lead economist the second half of 2020 and and the potential for a collapse is real. Richard Record said. It also has deep throughout 2021, besides the (30 April, Bernama) domestic capital markets, astute government’s RM260 billion Prihatin financial institutions, and past stimulus package. (24 April, Business Malaysia stuck in middle-income experience responding to crises, Times) trap: Moody’s Analytics: Malaysia Record said. “While the challenges now faces the challenge of ahead are unprecedented, because of Government formulating economic maintaining its competitive edge these reasons the country is well recovery plan for short, medium against both ends of the value chain placed to weather the storm,” he and long term: Prime Minister Tan namely low-wage countries on one added. (15 April, Business Times) Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has directed the side and advanced and more Ministry of Finance, Economic innovative countries on the other, said Malaysia’s economy to bounce back Planning Unit (EPU), and the Prime Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s to 9 percent in 2021, says IMF: The Minister's Department to formulate a Analytics said Malaysia ranks as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) comprehensive Economic Recovery third richest country in Southeast expects Malaysia’s economy to Plan for the short, medium and long bounce back to grow a whopping nine term. He said the plan was aimed at Asia, successfully transforming its per cent next year, from an expected ensuring the economic activities could economy from an agricultural-based 1.7 per cent contraction in 2020. This be revived quickly after the one to a manufacturing hub with one will be the fastest among Asean-5 Movement Control Order (MCO) of the busiest ports in the world. economies, which according to the period has ended. “The focus “Income inequality has been a IMF is likely to expand at an average currently is to identify measures and growing issue between Malaysian 7.8 per cent next year. Asean-5 also initiatives that can spur economic states, particularly the richer comprises Indonesia, Thailand, the growth in the short and medium term, manufacturing hubs and states that Philippines and Vietnam, whose gross as well as to encourage confidence of rely on agriculture and other natural domestic product (GDP) are projected the people and investors to regenerate resources like palm oil and mining. to grow 8.2 per cent, 6.1 per cent, 7.6 the nation’s economy. (23 April, (29 April, Business Times) per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Bernama) Malaysia’s solid projection will also Govt committed to helping SME
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