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COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing Science Based Forecasts for the Short- and Long-Term

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COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing Science Based Forecasts for the Short- and Long-Term COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing Science based forecasts for the short- and long-term 29th June 2021 Prepared on behalf of The WTO Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd About Airfinity Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working for some of the world’s largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, Airfinity has established itself as an authoritative provider of predictive insights and accurate, independent information. We have built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform. “Airfinity has been instrumental in our country’s COVID response” - Head of Vaccine Task Force AIRFINITY DATA IS USED BY MORE THAN 200 NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND TV NETWORKS GLOBALLY Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 2 Vaccine production has scaled up quickly Observed vaccine deliveries to date Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 3 Vaccine production now greater than 3.3 billion, showing current growth rate of more than a billion doses per month Global cumulative vaccine production over the last month Over 1 billion doses have been produced in the last month 314 million doses produced in the last week Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 4 Vaccine production could exceed 11 billion in 2021, as more vaccines come through the pipeline Vaccine production forecast split by candidate Other vaccines include: (full list in appendix) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) 11,856,354,000 INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) 959,204,000 Other LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) J&J MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) 517,885,000 NasoVAX(Altimmune) 10,035,069,000 AstraZeneca QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems) Sinopharm S-268019 (UMN Pharma) 2,137,408,000 Pfizer/BioNTech SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) UB-612 (Covaxx) 8,481,562,000 CanSino ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) Sinovac Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) Bharat Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) 7,063,151,000 1,576,923,000 Moderna EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) VLA2001 (Dynavax/Valneva) Novavax ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) 5,824,622,000 Sputnik V 2,179,275,000 4,621,217,000 161,746,000 3,481,228,000 2,856,484,000 1,886,530,000 263,724,000 667,270,000246,462,000 289,973,000 31/05/2021 30/06/2021 31/07/2021 31/08/2021 30/09/2021 31/10/2021 30/11/2021 31/12/2021 Forecasted on 28/06/2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 5 Global drug substance production sites for vaccines Map of agreed production sites for COVID vaccines. Bubble sizes indicate volume 83 sites producing vaccine drug substance The map shows production sites where there is known quantities of drug substance. If fill/finish is at the same site as drug substance production, they are included here Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd Globally, there are many more CDMOs than in-house production facilities for COVID vaccines Map of agreed production sites (including fill & finish) for COVID vaccines colour coded by in-house or contracted facilities Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd More production forecasted to come from own sites compared to contract production Forecasted supply of vaccines split by contract or own sites Production from own sites Contract production 7,961,929,710 6,785,817,381 5,770,960,906 4,828,786,031 4,015,154,466 1,415,164,045 3,239,394,113 1,034,705,607 391,194,209 2,533,993,397 697,933,503 3,894,424,290 460,631,227 219,447,233 1,923,458,538 3,141,211,238 110,416,457 2,057,006,409 2,553,611,516 54,492,574 1,272,076,350 1,641,649,045 636,004,197 940,343,411 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 % production at own sites 89% 86% 83% 78% 75% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67% % contract production 11% 14% 17% 22% 25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% Forecasted on 28/06/2021 For facilities where known Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd The USA headquarters many companies that produce subcomponents Some key subcomponents and materials for vaccine supply chains: Equipment: Different equipment are required for vaccine production, including Bioreactor suppliers (HQ) Lipid suppliers (HQ) those required in manufacturing and storage: E.g. bioreactors and fridges/freezers. Japan UK Switzerland Italy 8.7% 12.5% 12.5% 4.3% UK 8.7% USA Germany Chemicals: 12.5% 39.1% To produce vaccines, various chemicals are required. These include Taiwan 4.3% Canada 25.0% various buffers throughout the process, and other chemicals such as 8.7% lipids which are important for the delivery of mRNA vaccines. Switzerland 4.3% 21.7% 37.5% Netherlands Germany USA Consumables: In addition to large laboratory equipment required to produce vaccines, various items are required for the manufacturing, storage and Glass Vials Suppliers (HQ) Syringes and needles suppliers (HQ) administering of vaccines. UK China India E.g. glass vials, syringes, needles. 14.3% USA 11.1% 11.1% South Korea 28.6% 11.1% Italy 14.3% Japan 22.2% Process: Vaccines need to be packaged correctly for distribution. For mRNA vaccines, assembly of the mRNA into lipid nanoparticles is essential. 14.3% Finally, all vaccines need to be filled into glass vials for distribution. 11.1% 33.3% Germany 28.6% Germany USA Japan These are preliminary numbers and Airfinity is conducting ongoing research. Airfinity forecasts have been realistic to observed production Comparison of Airfinity forecasts (made in early February) vs observed production up until the end of June Airfinity forecast generated in February 2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 10 Contents Macro Overview: Key changes this week 1 Production forecast overview Appendix Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 11 Full list of vaccines included in supply and production models Supply Production CVnCoV (Curevac) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax) CVnCoV (Curevac) AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes) GRAd-COV2 Ad26COVS1 (J&J) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute) Ad26COVS1 (J&J) (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) AZD1222 (University of AZD1222 (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm) Oxford/AstraZeneca) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax) CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Center) BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute) NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm) CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) UB-612 (Covaxx) SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) Center) Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino) Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety CoronaVac (Sinovac) Problems) CoronaVac (Sinovac) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) IBIO-200 (iBio) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV) IBIO-200 (iBio) UB-612 (Covaxx) LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino) mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest) Institute for Biological Research) hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest) Problems) NasoVAX (Altimmune) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) NasoVAX (Altimmune) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV) AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) GRAd-COV2 mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) Institute for Biological Research) ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 12 MORE INFORMATION Rasmus Bech Hansen, Co-founder and CEO [email protected] Mitesh Chainani, Enterprise Account Director Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 13 Disclaimer and Copyright Notice Copyright notice All intellectual property rights in this publication and the information published herein are the exclusive property of Airfinity and may only be used under licence from Airfinity. Without limiting the foregoing, by accessing this publication you agree that you will not copy or reproduce or recirculate or distribute or use any part of its contents in any form or for any purpose whatsoever except under valid licence from Airfinity. Unauthorised distribution is strictly prohibited. Disclaimer The data and other information published herein are provided on an "as is basis". Airfinity makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the data or fitness for any particular purpose. Airfinity shall not be liable for any loss, claims or damage arising from any party's reliance on the data and disclaim any and all liability relating to or arising out of use of the data to the full extent permissible by law. Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 14 THE WORLD’S TRUSTED COVID-19 PLATFORM Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working with some of the world’s Airfinity’s COVID-19 data was seen by more largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, it than 2 billion people in 2020. has established itself as an authoritative provider of new predictive insights and accurate independent information. Airfinity has built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market “Airfinity has been instrumental in our intelligence platform. country’s COVID response” The company is headquartered in London and partners with organisations Head of Government Vaccine Task Force worldwide. Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd .
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