CYCLONE LAILA
ORANGE WARNING
May 19, 2010
CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST‐CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE WARNING (ORANGE MESSAGE).
Tropical Cyclone LAILA‐10 of Saffir‐Simpson Category 1 affected 20.8 million people with winds above 39mph (63 km/h) and 4.5 million people with hurricane wind strengths (74mph or 119 km/h). In addition, 461 thousand people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.50N and long. 82.00E, about 190 km east‐ northeast of Chennai, 480 km west‐southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20th May 2010.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position (lat. 0N/ long. Sustained maximum surface wind 0E) speed (kmph)
19‐05‐2010/0530 13.5/82.0 85‐95 gusting to 105
19‐05‐2010/1130 14.0/81.5 95‐105 gusting to 115
19‐05‐2010/1730 14.5/81.5 105‐115 gusting to 125
19‐05‐2010/2330 15.5/81.5 115‐125 gusting to 135
20‐05‐2010/0530 16.5/81.5 115‐125 gusting to 135
20‐05‐2010/1730 17.5/82.0 95‐155 gusting to 155
21‐05‐2010/0530 18.5/83.0 85‐95gusting to 105
21‐05‐2010/1730 19.5/84.5 75‐85 gusting to 95
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours.
Gale force wind with speed reaching 65‐75 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. It may increase to 115‐125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50‐60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.
Named Laila, the tempest is coasting towards the mainland, speeding between 95 and 100 kmph, but is unlikely to hold up the monsoon, a weather bureau official said.
WARNING TO FISHERFOLK:
The Met department has issued a “severe weather warning”, along with a cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and, possibly, Orissa.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.
LIKELY IMPACT:
Estimated arrival time Wind speed (km/h) Distance (km) Name State (UTC) 5/20/2010 16:45 122 13 Nidadavole Andhra Pradesh 15:30 126 19 Tadepallegudem Andhra Pradesh 12:00 136 30 Bhimavaram Andhra Pradesh 13:00 133 26 Narasapur Andhra Pradesh 08:15 140 33 Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh 18:00 118 12 Rajahmundry Andhra Pradesh
CONTACT:
Name Designation Mobile Email Vikas Gora Focal Point Inter 9958699913 [email protected] Agency Coordination & URS Ashutosh Sphere Coordinator – 9911552942 [email protected] MIS / GIS
SOURCES:
Indian Meteorological Department : www.imd.gov.in The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System : www.gdacs.org NOAA Satellite and Information Service : www.ssd.noaa.gov