DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
FEBRUARY, 2020
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 1 Streetsense is an experience-focused strategy and design collective that creates brands people love and places people love to be. Powered by in-depth insights and an interdisciplinary approach, we enhance brands and places, drive consumer demand, and foster community.
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2 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) Table of Contents
Introduction 4
Methodology & Retail Terminology 6
Existing Retail Inventory 8
Competition Assessment 10
Trade Area Analysis 14
Customer Profiles/ Demographics 16
Current Retail Demand 18
DRI Project Prioritization 20
Technical Appendix 22
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 3 Introduction
The Downtown Revitalization Initiative (DRI) is a New York state-funded grant program that is in its fourth year running. Schenectady was selected as 2019-2020’s Capital Region DRI winner SENECA ST and has been awarded $10 million to build on positive momentum in the city and to complete the redevelopment of downtown as a dynamic and diverse 24/7 destination for businesses and visitors. On behalf of the City of Schenectady, the Schenectady Metroplex Development Authority SCOTIA (Metroplex) will perform all the necessary MOHAWK RIVER functions as the lead administrator for the DRI and will also be committing $7 million in funding to the downtown revitalization efforts.
The DRI study area is large and extends across a 15-minute walk shed, or measures about 4,000 UNION COLLEGE feet long end to end. It is flanked by physical ERIE BLVD boundaries, including rail lines, the Mohawk River (West), and Vale Park (East), and major PARK PL thoroughfares such as I-890, Erie Blvd and State SCHENECTADY COUNTY CC St. The large area is comprised of several distinct UNION ST retail micro-climates including Proctor’s Block, Lower State Street District, Little italy and Mohawk Harbor. STATE ST
The retail market analysis presented in this report HAMILTON ST serves to evaluate market-supported retail demand (including quantity and type of retail) that will NOTT TERRACE guide the work of the Local Planning Committee in selecting and prioritizing final projects and investment as part of the DRI. A review of existing VALE PARK and upcoming competitive retail clusters in the market, a trade area analysis, and a customer demographic analysis, were undertaken to generate a comprehensive understanding of the Map of the Downtown Revitalization Initiative study area. Source: Streetsense DRI Study Area
4 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) VALE PARK
Retail storefronts along Jay Street, a pedestrianized street in Proctor’s DRI SCHENECTADYBlock, RETAIL offering MARKET a mix ANALYSISof GAFO and - STREETSENSEF&B offerings. (FEBRUARYSource: Streetsense 2020) | 5 Methodology
To evaluate downtown Schenectady’s ability to command ASSIGN CAPTURE RATES competitive retail rent rates and terms, the presence of a market (unmet) demand for future retail offerings must be established. Expenditures are determined from information gathered For the purposes of this assessment, the following tasks were from the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI, and Claritas, Inc., as appropriate. These total estimated expenditures are undertaken to evaluate the retail potential. multiplied by a capture rate to estimate total captured expenditures. Capture rates are set by evaluating the amount, accessibility, and quality of existing and proposed retail development on the site’s ability to draw customer SURVEY & INVENTORY expenditures within the context of the larger market. A summary and assessment are undertaken of the existing competition for customers in the area’s market. TRANSLATE DEMAND INTO SQUARE As the study area is located in a market that contains a number of shopping options within close proximity FEET OF RETAIL SUPPORTED and of some level of convenience to the consumer, Total estimated, captured expenditures in each retail the level of impact for these competitive centers are category are divided by high and low sales per square incorporated in the analysis. foot (PSF) figure by retail tenant type. These figures are representative of expected sales PSF for that retail IDENTIFY TRADE AREAS category, according to actual retail sales nationwide (reported in annual and quarterly SEC reports) and Boundaries for trade areas are then determined for industry standards. The result of each calculation is a primary and tertiary (regional) levels of customer draws. high- and low-productivity number. Under the condition Trade areas are impacted by competition, drive times, of “high productivity,” retail sales volume PSF are high; sociological and geographical boundaries, shopping thus a smaller amount of retail space is needed to patterns by customer type, pedestrian volumes, and capture consumer expenditures. This condition is often other factors. This information provides a starting point associated with better quality retail tenants, as it allows for understanding the realistic customer base (existing retailers to purchase higher quality inventory, hire more and potential) for the retail market. qualified employees, and invest in regular maintenance and improvements. At high productivity, although there are fewer retailers, they are operating at a high level of quality TRACK EXPENDITURES BY and efficiency. CUSTOMER TYPE “Low-productivity” conditions assign lower potential sales The Primary Trade Area (PTA) identifies the segments volume per square foot to each type of retail; therefore, from which the district’s establishments draw a majority a larger amount of retail space is supported but with of their regular sales. The percentage of household significantly less profitability. This condition represents a expenditures captured by retailers is expected to be much riskier retail environment, potentially characterized highest in its PTA. Additionally, convenience is a major by high turnover as a result of the inability to make factor for sales generated locally. The Regional Trade profit. The irony is that low-productivity retail tenants are Area (RTA) delineates market segments that will also essential to market conditions where it is necessary to attribute to sales generated at lower capture rates. “prove the market.” High-productivity tenants are often Streetsense and International Council of Shopping highly selective in choosing a site, and may not accept the Centers (ICSC) estimates office worker spending at necessary level of risk associated with an up-and-coming $5,049 (in 2018 dollars) annually near their workplaces. commercial district. The result of this calculation yields an estimated total amount of demand for the site.
6 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) Retail Terminology
NEIGHBORHOOD GOODS & SERVICES GROCERY STORE TAILOR/SEAMSTRESS/ (NG&S) NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET CLOTHING REPAIR STORE NG&S retailers rely on spending from nearby CONVENIENCE STORE/ NAIL AND HAIR SALON residents, students, and employees. NG&S is BODEGA BARBER SHOP “convenience based” retail that must be located within close proximity to a customer’s place of BUTCHER/ DELICATESSEN SPA work or home with easy access (by foot/ bike/ PHARMACY/ DRUG STORE PET FOOD STORE transit, private vehicle) and/ or convenient DRY CLEANER PET GROOMERS parking. Generally, customers will travel to the nearest NG&S offering available to them. LAUNDROMAT PRINTER/ MAIL SERVICES
FOOD & BEVERAGE (F&B) FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANT ICE CREAM SHOP F&B retailers can attract customers from a SIT-DOWN RESTAURANT COFFEE SHOP/ CAFE larger trade area than NG&S retailers, especially QUICK SERVICE DINING BAR/ BREWPUB when they are clustered. A greater number of FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT FOOD TRUCKS patrons will be interested in a collection of F&B establishments that oer a variety of options FAST FOOD RESTAURANT that serve food or alcohol that is consumed on CARRY-OUT RESTAURANT premises.
APPAREL/CLOTHING STORE SPORTS EQUIPMENT STORE GENERAL MERCHANDISE, APPAREL, FURNISHINGS & OTHERS (GAFO) ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT HOBBY STORE AND SUPPLY STORE CRAFT STORE GAFO retailers face a tremendous amount of retail competition, both from brick-and-mortar FURNITURE STORE ANTIQUE STORE stores and online, for a relatively small percentage PET SUPPLIES STORE GIFT SHOP of household expenditures. GAFO retailers attract BOOK STORE AUTOMOTIVE EQUIPMENT customers from farther distances, but rely on exposure and foot traffic generated by anchors. MUSIC STORE STORE
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 7 Existing Retail Inventory
Map of retail micro climates within DRI study area. Source: Streetsense The DRI Study Area is comprised of four retail micro-climates (Proctor’s Block, Lower State SENECA ST Street District, Little italy and Mohawk Harbor) that each have a distinct supply of retail spaces and mix of existing ground-floor retail tenants. When combined, the study area offers approximately a MOHAWK HARBOR total of 413,000 SF of existing retail spaces*. 145,000 SF (CLASS A SPACES) The greatest density of existing retail spaces are located between Proctor’s Block (primarily on State St, Jay St, Clinton St, Broadway, and Liberty MOHAWK RIVER St) - 40% of total retail supply - and at Mohawk Harbor, where over 145,000 SF of new Class A retail spaces have been built/ planned along the waterfront (35% of total downtown retail supply). LITTLE ITALY ERIE BLVD
39,000 SF (CLASS B/C JAY ST PARK PL MOHAWK HARBOR SPACES) UNION ST Mohawk Harbor is a newly-opened mixed use LOWER STATE development by the river which includes two STREET hotels (289 rooms), the Rivers Casino (with over STATE ST 2.8 million annual visitors and 1,200 employees), 61,000 SF JAY ST and over 390 residential units. The development’s (CLASS A/B/C SPACES) retail merchandising strategy, rooted in dining HAMILTON ST and experiential retail, currently includes Druther’s PROCTOR’S Brewing Co. and Shaker’s Wine Bar in its tenant BLOCK roll. The ground floor retail spaces on-site are 169,000 SF NOTT TERRACE Class A spaces with at least 20’ wide storefronts, (CLASS A/B properly lit exteriors and display spaces. SPACES)
RETAIL MICRO-CLIMATES REFER TO NODES/ CLUSTERS OF DENSE RETAIL OFFERINGS THAT EXIST WITHIN A LARGER MARKET. RETAIL MICRO-CLIMATES WITHIN A SINGLE MARKET MAY BE DISTINGUISHED BY BUSINESS MIX AND PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT (PUBLIC REALM AND PRIVATE REALM) AND OFTEN ATTRACT ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF A *Includes full build-out of planned Mohawk Harbor retail spaces CUSTOMER BASE. (based on site plan provided by Galesi Group)
8 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) PROCTORS BLOCK Little Italy Proctor’s Block is anchored by key entertainment venues PROCTORS BLOCK including Bow Tie Cinemas, Proctor’s Theater, and Schenectady TENANT MIX Light Opera Co that each bring a regular stream of customers throughout the year. Complementary to the entertainment offerings in this area is Food & Beverage (F&B). Currently,over 60% of existing retail supply in Proctor’s Block consists of 60% F&B NG&S 19,100 SF 11% F&B tenants offering a range of fast casual and full-service dining options - higher than average share of F&B tenants when F&B 102,800 SF 61% compared with similar downtowns in NY State. GAFO 34,200 SF 20%
VACANT 12,000 SF 8% Proctor’s Block has a moderate retail vacancy rate of 8% 168,100 SF 100% (based on estimated retail SF). VACANT NG&S FB GAFO LittleMill Artisan Italy
LOWER STATE STREET TENANT MIX LOWER STATE STREET
The district has a mix of new Class A retail spaces (in new developments like Frog Alley) and retail spaces in aging 20% NG&S 16,650 SF 27% structures on the northern side of Lower State Street that will VACANT require some level of maintenance and investment by a tenant F&B 25,800 SF 42% to operate to a typical retailer’s standards. Of the existing retail GAFO 6,300 SF 10% supply in the area, there is a balance between F&B tenants (42%) and NG&S tenants (27%), however, 20% of retail space is VACANT 12,200 SF 20% currently vacant due to new inventory that has come online at 60,950 SF 100% new development, Electric City Apartments, along State St. VACANT NG&S FB GAFO VACANT NG&S FB GAFO LittleLittle Italy Italy LITTLE ITALY LITTLE ITALY The smallest retail node in downtown Schenectady is Little TENANT MIX Italy (39,000 SF). Located along Jay St, between Union St and South Ave, the area is home to some of the City’s oldest retail establishments, including Perreca’s and Cornells, and is of historic significance to Schenectady. Today, 37% of NG&S 10,100 SF 26% retail supply in the area is occupied by F&B tenants and 37% 37% GAFO by GAFO - primarily due to the large facility of Experience F&B 14,600 SF 37% Creative & Design florist. With the exception of a few GAFO 14,400 SF 37% businesses that have made significant investment to its spaces recently, ground floor retail spaces in Little Italy are primarily 39,100 SF 100% Class C - characterized by older, historic buildings. VACANT NG&S FB GAFO VACANT NG&S FB GAFO
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 9 Competition Assessment
Currently, there are several competitive retail districts Map of major competitive retail districts. Source: Streetsense near downtown Schenectady. Within a five-mile radius (or approximately 10 min drive), locals and visitors alike, have a variety of options to choose from across all retail categories (NG&S/ F&B/ GAFO) and across a range of quality and quantity/ size, totalling more than 3.2 million SF of retail. Customers prefer places that fulfill multiple wants and needs. The nearby alternatives will therefore limit the extent to which downtown retail alone will stand out at both a locally-serving and regionally-serving scale.
Downtown Schenectady is located within a short drive (approx. 10 min drive) of several major retail destinations including, but not limited to, Via | Port Rotterdam, Mohawk Commons, and Glenville. In addition, traditional Main Streets with convenience retail offerings can also be found at Upper Union Street (Schenectady), Shoprite Niskayuna, Rotterdam (Broadway/ Curry Road/ Guilderland Ave), and Scotia (Mohawk Ave). Within 20 minutes, customers also have additional options including Crossgates Mall, Colonie Center, and Latham - each anchored by major GAFO tenants such as Target, Walmart, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Lowe’s. As such, downtown Schenectady will inevitably compete for spending with established retail clusters across the region.
The following retail competition for downtown Schenectady is observed and measured on both a neighborhood-serving and destination-/ regional- Super regional (800,000+) Large Neighborhood Center (125,000- 400,000) serving scale and have been determined by the ease of access via the interstate network and river crossings. Regional (400,000- 800,000) Small Neighborhood Center (30,000- 125,000)
Retail District Size categories based on International Council for Shopping Centers (ICSC) United States classification and characteristics.
10 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) Map of major competitive retail districts by tenant mix. Source: Streetsense
NG&S GAFO
F&B Entertainment
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 11 Map of grocery stores within 5-miles of downtown Schenectady. Source: Streetsense
ALDI HANNAFORD
Market 32 by Price Chopper located at 1640 Eastern Pkway, Schenectady NY
SHOPRITE
MARKET 32 BY PRICE CHOPPER
ALDI PRICE CHOPPER SAVE A LOT PRICE RITE HANNAFORD
HANNAFORD PRICE CHOPPER
Hannaford Supermarket located at 1400 Altamont Ave, Schenectady NY
Grocery Anchors
NEIGHBORHOOD-SERVING RETAIL Neighborhood-serving retail centers are typically anchored by a grocery store or a full-service pharmacy and co-tenanted by smaller neighborhood goods and services (NG&S), such as salons or cleaners. It is a common strategy amongst grocery and pharmacy retailers to cluster together in groups or shopping centers in order to attract the customer base of other retail categories. These locations typically compete on a geographically smaller scale, since retail customers who frequent retailers within this category will usually patronize locations within close proximity to their work or home.
The region is served in this category by a number of established and affordable neighborhood-serving retail centers. Downtown Schenectady is located adjacent to several retail centers south of the Mohawk River containing grocery store anchors such as Shoprite, Aldi, and Price Chopper. These are accessible within a 10-minute drive to locals primarily via State St (NY-5) and I-890.
12 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) REGIONALLY-SERVING RETAIL
Destination and regionally-serving retail nodes are characterized by lifestyle centers, downtown districts, and shopping malls that each offer a diverse selection of GAFO, NG&S, and F&B tenants. These locations typically compete on a geographically larger scale, since retail customers will usually go out of their way for a destination with larger density of mixed offerings, as well as unique dining and entertainment. The region is served in this category by few established destination-serving retail nodes.
In fact, within a short 10-minute drive of Downtown Schenectady, Viaport Rotterdam (900,000 SF Gross Leasable Area) is one of the only regional retail destinations. The enclosed shopping mall has undergone several changes in ownership in the last decade and most recently suffered from closures of its GAFO anchor tenants, Sears and KMart. However, it offers key entertainment options including an arcade, cinema, bowling alley, and an aquarium. Fun Zone at Viaport Rotterdam
As Mohawk Harbor continues to develop, expand its offerings, and build upon its vision as an eatertainment waterfront destination, a new regionally-serving district will emerge for customers in the area.
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 13 Trade Area
PRIMARY TRADE AREA (PTA) LOCALLY-SERVING, CONVENIENCE-BASED
The trade area for locally-serving, convenience-based shopping trips represents the households and daytime employees, who are expected to patronize retail at least once a week for the weekly retail needs (groceries, dry-cleaning, quick meals, etc.). In addition, given that downtown Schenectady hosts a number of hotels, additional spending from this captive audience (overnight visitors) has also been included in the primary trade area.
The PTA, bound by a 10-min drive time, is primarily influenced by the following factors: a) access, including the primary mode of transportation: personal vehicle/ driving, b) physical barriers, including river crossings, and c) existing retail competition.
Collectively, these factors influence customer shopping behaviors, both physically and psychologically.
REGIONAL TRADE AREA (RTA) REGIONALLY-SERVING, EXPERIENCE-BASED
The trade area for regionally-serving, experience-based retail includes households that would likely frequent the site for a unique dining or shopping opportunity that cannot be replicated elsewhere in the market. Residents in this trade area have more convenient options closer to home, but are expected to patronize on-site retail for this unique experience at least once a year. The RTA is bound by a 20-min drive-time to the site, a typical distance for an experience-based trip in the region (upstate New York), and is responsive to accessible highway networks.
14 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) Trade Area Map. Source: 2019 Claritas report created for Streetsense (Powered by Sitewise)
PATTERSONVILLE EAST GLENVILLE CLIFTON PARK CENTER
WYATTS
SCOTIA
NISKAYUNA
ROTTERDAM
LATHAM
Primary Trade Area (PTA) - 10 min drive Sitewise software uses sophisticated spatial analysis technology to more accurately define trade areas based on average travel time under a variety of traffic conditions from a proposed site, which in this case was the center of the DRI study area. The tech- Regional Trade Area (RTA) - 20 min drive nology considers factors such as nationwide roadway systems derived from the latest US Census Bureau TIGER database and OpenStreetMap data, among other sources.
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 15 Customer Profiles/ Demographics 1 THE DAYTIME EMPLOYEE POPULATION, PARTICULARLY IN EXECUTIVE/ PROFESSIONAL ROLES (49%), WITHIN A 10-MINUTE DRIVE OF DOWNTOWN CREATES DEMAND FOR LOCALLY- SERVING, CONVENIENCE-BASED SHOPPING, LUNCH, AND AFTER- 2019 ESTIMATED DEMOGRAPHICS PTA RTA CAPITAL REGION WORK APERITIF, WITH WEEKDAY OPERATIONS. THIS RESULTS IN A Total Households 48,070 73,604 367,466 RETAIL ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY BE Total Resident Population 116,939 180,978 889,629 ACTIVATED ON WEEKDAYS, EXPANDING THE POOL OF TENANTS WILLING AND Total Daytime Population 1 54,074 - - ABLE TO JUSTIFY A STOREFRONT Average Household Income $69,628 $85,854 $93,382 UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. Median Household Income $53,766 $65,779 $70,520 Average Household Size 2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2 THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MEDIAN % Own Homes 58% 66% 64% HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND AVERAGE % Rent Homes 42% 34% 36% HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS AN INDICATOR OF THE RELATIVE LEVEL OF INCOME Years Living in Home 10.9 11.9 11.1 DISPARITY WITHIN THE TRADE % Married 39% 44% 47% AREA. BOTH METRICS ARE USED FOR % of Family Households 59% 63% 61% RETAIL TENANTING, BUT THE MEDIAN 1-person Household 34% 31% 31% HOUSEHOLD INCOME, COUPLED WITH THE AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD Households with children 46% 45% 44% SIZE, PAINTS A MORE ACCURATE Households with children under 18 3 30% 31% 29% DESCRIPTION OF THE AREA’S RETAIL Average Age 39 41 41 SPENDING POWER. Share of Millennials (aged 25-44) 6 27% 24% 25% Share of Boomers and Seniors (aged 65+) 16% 18% 20% 3 FAMILY UNITS COMPRISE THE Bachelor’s Degree + 4 27% 34% 37% MAJORITY OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE SITE’S TRADE AREAS. OF FAMILY % Population - White 70% 76% 82% HOUSEHOLDS, MORE THAN ONE-THIRD % Population - African American 14% 10% 9% HAVE CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF % Population - Asian 5% 6% 5% 18 YEAR LIVING IN THE HOUSEHOLD % Population - Other 5% 4% 2% (37%), INDICATING A CUSTOMER BASE THAT MAY BE MORE SENSITIVE TO % Hispanic or Latino 9% 7% 6% PRICE AND LIMITED ON TIME. Speak Only English 89% 89% 91% Speak Indo European Language 5% 5% 4% 4 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF Speak Spanish 5 4% 3% 3% RESIDENTS IS A KEY METRIC Cars Per Household 1.5 1.6 1.7 ANALYZED DURING A RETAILER’S SITE % Drive to Work 86% 88% 87% SELECTION PROCESS. A SMALLER 7 SHARE OF RESIDENTS IN THE PTA % Public Transit to Work 6% 4% 4% HAVE A PROFESSIONAL DEGREE THAN Average Commute 25.0 25.0 25.5 THE NATIONAL AVERAGE (35%) AND LOWER THAN THE CAPITAL REGION (37%). HOWEVER, THIS METRIC DOES NOT NOT INCLUDE THE SEGMENT OF THE POPULATION CURRENTLY PURSUING HIGHER EDUCATION AT UNION COLLEGE AND SCHENECTADY COUNTY CC.
16 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) 5 THERE IS GREATER ETHNIC DIVERSITY AMONGST RESIDENTS IN THE PTA, WHEN COMPARED WITH THE REGION. THE PTA HAS A LARGER AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND HISPANIC POPULATION.
6 THE PTA HAS A YOUNGER CUSTOMER BASE, WITH OVER 27% OF RESIDENTS FALLING IN THE MILLENNIAL AGE GROUP (AGE 25-44). THE SHARE OF GEN-Z CUSTOMER BASE (AGE 15-24) IS CONSISTENT ACROSS PTA AND RTA AT 13%.
7 SIMILAR TO TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION, THE POPULATION IS CAR- DEPENDENT WITH OVER 86% OF RESIDENTS COMMUTING TO WORK BY DRIVING AND COMMUTING AN AVERAGE OF 25 MINUTES. THIS INDICATES A CUSTOMER BASE THAT MAY BE SENSITIVE TO PARKING CONVENIENCE AND SITE ACCESS FOR VEHICLES.
Newly-relocated business, Blue Bird, located on State St caters to a diverse customer base by offering a curated mix of GAFO merchandise at a range of price points. Source: Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 17 Retail Demand
RETAIL DEMAND BY CATEGORY (SF)
CATEGORY TOTAL CAPTURED SUPPORTABLE SF SUPPORTABLE SF The following section outlines two demand scenarios: EXPENDITURES current retail demand and projected 2024 retail (BASED ON LOW (BASED ON HIGH PRODUCTIVITY) PRODUCTIVITY) demand generated in identified trade areas. Each of these scenarios outlines the amount of retail demanded by square footage and the type of retail NG&S 52,650,993 150,294 109,497 that is demanded by category - Neighborhood Goods F&B 51,138,103 136,803 97,782 & Services (NG&S), Food & Beverage (F&B), and General Merchandise, Apparel, Furnishings, & Other GAFO 12,461,510 39,704 33,504 (GAFO) - and is conducted independent of existing retail supply. Unmet demand is outlined in the TOTAL $116,250,606 326,801 240,784 section ‘Overall Retail Opportunity’.
CURRENT RETAIL DEMAND
Based on the resident, daytime worker, and HIGH PRODUCTIVITY NG&S F&B GAFO overnight visitor populations that currently exist in the trade areas, downtown Schenectady can support approximately 240,000-326,800 SF of LOW PRODUCTIVITY NG&S F&B GAFO retail, which equates to approximately $116,250,600 in projected annual retail sales. Food & Beverage (F&B) is the most demanded retail category (46% 300,000 350,000 of total demand), followed by Neighborhood Goods 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 & Services (NG&S). Demand for additional General Merchandise, Apparel, Furnishings & Other (GAFO) RETAIL DEMAND BY CUSTOMER GROUP (SF) retail is limited by nearby competing commercial BASED ON BLENDED SALES PRODUCIVITY RATES centers. RESIDENTS 178,600 SF 62% OF TOTAL DEMAND
Residents and daytime workers in the trade areas DAYTIME 118,000 SF alone generate over 120,300 SF of retail demand WORKERS 34% OF TOTAL DEMAND in the Neighborhood Goods & Services category. This retail category comprises 41% of total demand OVERNIGHT 15,700 SF and will be critical to the success of downtown’s VISITORS retail strategy and merchandise mix. In fact, about 53,000 SF is attributable to demand for groceries 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 by residents alone. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nielsen Company/Claritas Demographics and Business Facts reports created for Streetsense, December 2019.
18 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) PROJECTED RETAIL DEMAND RETAIL DEMAND BY CATEGORY (SF) Based on average growth rates of the local BASED ON BLENDED SALES PRODUCIVITY RATES population within the trade area, the following retail demand is projected for downtown Schenectady over the next five and ten years. Growth in retail demand 2019 NG&S F&B GAFO 312,200 SF will be slight given the low annual household growth rate of 0.21% in the primary trade area. 2024 NG&S F&B GAFO 315,300 SF
Any future growth in retail demand will primarily be driven by residents in the primary trade area (10 min 2029 NG&S F&B GAFO 318,500 SF drive) in Food & Beverage (F&B) and Neighborhood Goods & Services (NG&S). 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY
At this time, downtown Schenectady is oversupplied SUPPLY CURRENT DEMAND PROJECTED 2029 DEMAND in all retail categories except for Neighborhood 67,800 SF 126,500 SF 129,000 SF Goods & Services (NG&S). This condition of NG&S oversupply is further expressed in the amount F&B 163,200 SF 142,800 SF 145,800 SF of space that is vacant or occupied by non-retail 54,900 SF 42,800 SF 43,700 SF tenants. The demand for NG&S, however, will GAFO continue to grow as more residents move into 285,900 SF 312,200 SF 318,500 SF downtown Schenectady with the redevelopment of new residential properties in the DRI area and will result in unmet demand of about 61,200 SF.
Although there appears to be an oversupply of F&B, and therefore limited demand for new F&B, downtown Schenectady should continue to support existing dining offerings through business retention efforts to meet the needs of the current customer who increasingly demands unique and shareable dining and entertainment experiences. This might include technical assistance and other tools to enhance competitiveness.
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 19 DRI Retail Prioritization
TENANT MIX
DRI Projects with retail components should prioritize PRIORITY NG&S TENANTS: . Such projects must also tenanting to NG&S retailers GROCERY STORE NAIL AND HAIR SALON consider design and site specifications that meet NEIGHBORHOOD BARBER SHOP the needs of tenants, including grocers, convenience MARKET SPA CONVENIENCE STORE/ PET FOOD STORE stores, pharmacies, and drug stores. Accessibility BODEGA PET GROOMERS and convenience are key to tenants in the NG&S BUTCHER/ PRINTER/ MAIL DELICATESSEN SERVICES category. This includes providing convenient parking PHARMACY/ DRUG spaces and/ or enhancing existing parking spaces in STORE and around the project, as well as ensuring sufficient DRY CLEANER LAUNDROMAT loading/ unloading for delivery of goods and visible TAILOR/SEAMSTRESS/ signage for pedestrians and vehicles along major CLOTHING REPAIR thoroughfares.
New retail spaces for GAFO and F&B tenants are CO-LOCATION/ RETAIL NODES not recommended to be built through DRI given DRI Projects with retail should be the existing oversupply and availability of new co-located in spaces recently constructed at developments such existing nodes - Proctors Block, Lower State Street (page 8), and as Mohawk Harbor and Electric City Apartments. District, Little Italy or Mohawk Harbor build upon the visibility and density of these micro- However, the improvement and enhancement of climates rather than isolating spending at a new existing restaurants through the DRI may enable location. downtown Schenectady to right-size and update its dining offerings for the growing young and diverse customer base. There are many benefits to clustering and business density. The close proximity of stores allows customers to cross-shop, or conveniently move For DRI projects with ground floor commercial between stores they want to visit in a single shopping spaces located outside of retail nodes, it is highly trip. In fact, if businesses are densely clustered, recommended that applicants consider non-retail customers are more likely to drop into stores they uses including offices that stand to benefit from a wouldn’t have visited otherwise. visible location on the ground floor - for example, specialty gyms, day care centers, outpatient clinics/ urgent care clinics, etc.
20 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) VISIBILITY/ ACCESSIBILITY
If a DRI Project with a ground floor retail component DRI projects with retail spaces should first behighly is dislocated from existing retail nodes, the project visible to downtown populations, including residents should be designed to maximize access and visibility in the residential buildings, office workers in office for the retail tenant. Retailers are knowledgeable of buildings, and visitors from the train station/ at psychological shopping patterns and formulate their the Proctors Theater/ staying at hotels. They will site selection processes to maximize their potential also need to maximize visibility and access for customer sales capture. While each retailer’s site potential customers driving along Erie Blvd through selection requirements are different, limited barriers wayfinding and other strategies, given its high to access and customer visibility are site conditions average daily traffic of about 26,400 vehicles. that are foundational to a retail business.
Access and visibility are especially crucial in an urban-suburban market like Schenectady where customers primarily arrive by car. The potential customer’s ability to see, be aware of and easily access retail offerings from a major roadway, intersection, or pedestrian sidewalk therefore determines the retailer’s primary customer base and its ability to capture retail sales, as a consumer’s decision to patronize a retailer can be driven by seeing the storefront.
Retail spaces that have compromised sightlines - by being tucked away from view by the natural landscape or placed behind other uses - will reduce consumer awareness of the offerings which will in turn result in lower sales volumes than retailers that are clearly visible to the customer, which explains why tenants will often pay a premium in rental rates for corner endcap locations over in-line spaces.
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 21 Appendix (2019 Retail Demand)
TABLE 1. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2019 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 10.00% $24,147,392 $398 60,672 $517 46,707 Alcohol at Home 10.00% $1,772,482 $254 6,978 $310 5,718 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 10.00% $6,625,451 $526 12,596 $791 8,376 Pet Food & Services 8.00% $1,072,031 $162 6,617 $273 3,927 Apparel Services 10.00% $432,443 $183 2,363 $265 1,632 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,049,799 89,227 66,359 Full-Service 20.00% $14,980,673 $396 37,830 $562 26,656 Fast Food 10.00% $6,048,860 $331 18,275 $394 15,352 Alcohol Away from Home 15.00% $1,593,632 $458 3,480 $654 2,437 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 10.00% $1,452,154 $245 5,927 $370 3,925 F&B SUBTOTAL $24,075,319 65,511 48,370 Home Furnishings 3.00% $3,909,603 $310 12,612 $325 12,030 Apparel 3.00% $2,623,486 $375 6,996 $420 6,246 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 3.00% $621,436 $430 1,445 $462 1,345 Reading/Education 3.00% $443,654 $300 1,479 $360 1,232 Pet Supplies 3.00% $118,521 $162 732 $273 434 Automotive Equipment 2.00% $75,811 $188 403 $241 315 GAFO SUBTOTAL $7,792,512 23,666 21,602
RESIDENT-GENERATED $65,917,630 178,404 136,331 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
22 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 2. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - REGIONAL TRADE AREA - 2019 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 0.00% $0 $398 0 $517 0 Alcohol at Home 0.00% $0 $254 0 $310 0 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 0.00% $0 $526 0 $791 0 Pet Food & Services 0.00% $0 $162 0 $273 0 Apparel Services 0.00% $0 $183 0 $265 0 NG&S SUBTOTAL $0 0 0 Full-Service 6.00% $7,967,718 $396 20,120 $562 14,177 Fast Food 1.00% $976,931 $331 2,951 $394 2,480 Alcohol Away from Home 3.00% $565,001 $458 1,234 $654 864 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.00% $242,830 $245 991 $370 656 F&B SUBTOTAL $9,752,480 25,297 18,177 Home Furnishings 0.25% $594,453 $310 1,918 $325 1,829 Apparel 0.25% $381,276 $375 1,017 $420 908 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 0.25% $90,560 $430 211 $462 196 Reading/Education 0.25% $64,915 $300 216 $360 180 Pet Supplies 0.25% $17,431 $162 108 $273 64 Automotive Equipment 0.10% $6,572 $188 35 $241 27 GAFO SUBTOTAL $1,155,207 3,504 3,204
RESIDENT-GENERATED $10,907,687 28,801 21,382 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 23 TABLE 3. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - TOTAL (COMBINED PTA & RTA) - 2019 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home $24,147,392 $398 60,672 $517 46,707 Alcohol at Home $1,772,482 $254 6,978 $310 5,718 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services $6,625,451 $526 12,596 $791 8,376 Pet Food & Services $1,072,031 $162 6,617 $273 3,927 Apparel Services $432,443 $183 2,363 $265 1,632 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,049,799 $89,227 66,359 Full-Service $22,948,390 $396 57,950 $562 40,833 Fast Food $7,025,791 $331 21,226 $394 17,832 Alcohol Away from Home $2,158,633 $458 4,713 $654 3,301 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages $1,694,984 $245 6,918 $370 4,581 F&B SUBTOTAL $33,827,799 $90,808 66,547 Home Furnishings $4,504,057 $310 14,529 $325 13,859 Apparel $3,004,762 $375 8,013 $420 7,154 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment $711,997 $430 1,656 $462 1,541 Reading/Education $508,569 $300 1,695 $360 1,413 Pet Supplies $135,952 $162 839 $273 498 Automotive Equipment $82,383 $188 438 $241 342 GAFO SUBTOTAL $8,947,719 $27,170 24,806
RESIDENT-GENERATED $76,825,317 $207,205 157,713 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
24 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 4. EMPLOYEE - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2019
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $16,311,120 $305 53,549 $431 37,827 Food & Beverage 35.00% $25,275,072 $358 70,700 $495 51,061 GAFO 5.00% $4,602,964 $294 15,647 $347 13,271
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $46,189,157 139,896 102,159 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense TABLE 5. OVERNIGHT VISITORS - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2019
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $2,290,074 $305 7,518 $431 5,311 Food & Beverage 35.00% $2,914,640 $358 8,153 $495 5,888 GAFO 10.00% $832,754 $294 2,831 $347 2,401
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $6,037,469 18,502 13,600 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
TABLE 6. RETAIL DEMAND SUMMARY - TOTAL (RESIDENTS+EMPLOYEES+OVERNIGHT VISITORS) - 2019 Total Captured Total Demand (Low Total Demand (High Category Expenditures Productivity) Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 52,650,993 150,294 109,497 Food & Beverage 51,138,103 136,803 97,782 GAFO 12,461,510 39,704 33,504
TOTAL $116,250,606 326,801 240,784 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 25 Appendix (2024 Retail Demand)
TABLE 1. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2024 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 10.00% $24,396,111 $398 61,297 $517 47,188 Alcohol at Home 10.00% $1,790,738 $254 7,050 $310 5,777 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 10.00% $6,693,693 $526 12,726 $791 8,462 Pet Food & Services 8.00% $1,083,073 $162 6,686 $273 3,967 Apparel Services 10.00% $436,897 $183 2,387 $265 1,649 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,400,512 90,146 67,043 Full-Service 20.00% $15,134,974 $396 38,220 $562 26,931 Fast Food 10.00% $6,111,164 $331 18,463 $394 15,511 Alcohol Away from Home 15.00% $1,610,046 $458 3,515 $654 2,462 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 10.00% $1,467,111 $245 5,988 $370 3,965 F&B SUBTOTAL $24,323,294 66,186 48,868 Home Furnishings 3.00% $3,949,872 $310 12,742 $325 12,153 Apparel 3.00% $2,650,508 $375 7,068 $420 6,311 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 3.00% $627,837 $430 1,460 $462 1,359 Reading/Education 3.00% $448,224 $300 1,494 $360 1,245 Pet Supplies 3.00% $119,742 $162 739 $273 439 Automotive Equipment 2.00% $76,592 $188 407 $241 318 GAFO SUBTOTAL $7,872,775 23,910 21,825
RESIDENT-GENERATED $66,596,581 180,242 137,735 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
26 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 2. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - REGIONAL TRADE AREA - 2024 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 0.00% $0 $398 0 $517 0 Alcohol at Home 0.00% $0 $254 0 $310 0 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 0.00% $0 $526 0 $791 0 Pet Food & Services 0.00% $0 $162 0 $273 0 Apparel Services 0.00% $0 $183 0 $265 0 NG&S SUBTOTAL $0 0 0 Full-Service 6.00% $8,077,672 $396 20,398 $562 14,373 Fast Food 1.00% $990,413 $331 2,992 $394 2,514 Alcohol Away from Home 3.00% $572,798 $458 1,251 $654 876 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.00% $246,181 $245 1,005 $370 665 F&B SUBTOTAL $9,887,064 25,646 18,428 Home Furnishings 0.25% $602,657 $310 1,944 $325 1,854 Apparel 0.25% $386,537 $375 1,031 $420 920 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 0.25% $91,810 $430 214 $462 199 Reading/Education 0.25% $65,811 $300 219 $360 183 Pet Supplies 0.25% $17,671 $162 109 $273 65 Automotive Equipment 0.10% $6,662 $188 35 $241 28 GAFO SUBTOTAL $1,171,149 3,552 3,249
RESIDENT-GENERATED $11,058,213 29,198 21,677 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 27 TABLE 3. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - TOTAL (COMBINED PTA & RTA) - 2024 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home $24,396,111 $398 61,297 $517 47,188 Alcohol at Home $1,790,738 $254 7,050 $310 5,777 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services $6,693,693 $526 12,726 $791 8,462 Pet Food & Services $1,083,073 $162 6,686 $273 3,967 Apparel Services $436,897 $183 2,387 $265 1,649 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,400,512 $90,146 67,043 Full-Service $23,212,646 $396 58,618 $562 41,304 Fast Food $7,101,576 $331 21,455 $394 18,024 Alcohol Away from Home $2,182,844 $458 4,766 $654 3,338 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages $1,713,292 $245 6,993 $370 4,631 F&B SUBTOTAL $34,210,359 $91,832 67,296 Home Furnishings $4,552,529 $310 14,686 $325 14,008 Apparel $3,037,045 $375 8,099 $420 7,231 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment $719,647 $430 1,674 $462 1,558 Reading/Education $514,035 $300 1,713 $360 1,428 Pet Supplies $137,414 $162 848 $273 503 Automotive Equipment $83,254 $188 443 $241 345 GAFO SUBTOTAL $9,043,924 $27,462 25,073
RESIDENT-GENERATED $77,654,794 $209,440 159,412 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
28 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 4. EMPLOYEE - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2024
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $16,479,125 $305 54,101 $431 38,217 Food & Beverage 35.00% $25,535,405 $358 71,428 $495 51,587 GAFO 5.00% $4,650,375 $294 15,809 $347 13,408
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $46,664,905 141,337 103,212 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense TABLE 5. OVERNIGHT VISITORS - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2024
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $2,290,074 $305 7,518 $431 5,311 Food & Beverage 35.00% $2,914,640 $358 8,153 $495 5,888 GAFO 10.00% $832,754 $294 2,831 $347 2,401
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $6,037,469 18,502 13,600 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
TABLE 6. RETAIL DEMAND SUMMARY - TOTAL (RESIDENTS+EMPLOYEES+OVERNIGHT VISITORS) - 2024 Total Captured Total Demand (Low Total Demand (High Category Expenditures Productivity) Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 53,169,711 151,765 110,571 Food & Beverage 51,662,691 138,198 98,778 GAFO 12,584,705 40,094 33,833
TOTAL $117,417,107 330,058 243,182 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 29 Appendix (2029 Retail Demand)
TABLE 1. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2029 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 10.00% $24,644,829 $398 61,922 $517 47,669 Alcohol at Home 10.00% $1,808,995 $254 7,122 $310 5,835 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 10.00% $6,761,935 $526 12,855 $791 8,549 Pet Food & Services 8.00% $1,094,115 $162 6,754 $273 4,008 Apparel Services 10.00% $441,351 $183 2,412 $265 1,665 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,751,224 91,065 67,726 Full-Service 20.00% $15,289,275 $396 38,609 $562 27,205 Fast Food 10.00% $6,173,467 $331 18,651 $394 15,669 Alcohol Away from Home 15.00% $1,626,461 $458 3,551 $654 2,487 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 10.00% $1,482,068 $245 6,049 $370 4,006 F&B SUBTOTAL $24,571,270 66,861 49,366 Home Furnishings 3.00% $3,990,141 $310 12,871 $325 12,277 Apparel 3.00% $2,677,530 $375 7,140 $420 6,375 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 3.00% $634,238 $430 1,475 $462 1,373 Reading/Education 3.00% $452,794 $300 1,509 $360 1,258 Pet Supplies 3.00% $120,963 $162 747 $273 443 Automotive Equipment 2.00% $77,373 $188 412 $241 321 GAFO SUBTOTAL $7,953,038 24,154 22,047
RESIDENT-GENERATED $67,275,533 182,079 139,140 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
30 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 2. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - REGIONAL TRADE AREA - 2029 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home 0.00% $0 $398 0 $517 0 Alcohol at Home 0.00% $0 $254 0 $310 0 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services 0.00% $0 $526 0 $791 0 Pet Food & Services 0.00% $0 $162 0 $273 0 Apparel Services 0.00% $0 $183 0 $265 0 NG&S SUBTOTAL $0 0 0 Full-Service 6.00% $8,187,627 $396 20,676 $562 14,569 Fast Food 1.00% $1,003,894 $331 3,033 $394 2,548 Alcohol Away from Home 3.00% $580,595 $458 1,268 $654 888 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.00% $249,532 $245 1,018 $370 674 F&B SUBTOTAL $10,021,648 25,995 18,679 Home Furnishings 0.25% $610,860 $310 1,971 $325 1,880 Apparel 0.25% $391,799 $375 1,045 $420 933 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment 0.25% $93,060 $430 216 $462 201 Reading/Education 0.25% $66,707 $300 222 $360 185 Pet Supplies 0.25% $17,912 $162 111 $273 66 Automotive Equipment 0.10% $6,753 $188 36 $241 28 GAFO SUBTOTAL $1,187,091 3,601 3,293
RESIDENT-GENERATED $11,208,739 29,595 21,972 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 31 TABLE 3. RESIDENT-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - TOTAL (COMBINED PTA & RTA)- 2029 Low Total Demand High Total Demand Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Food at Home $24,644,829 $398 61,922 $517 47,669 Alcohol at Home $1,808,995 $254 7,122 $310 5,835 Personal/Household Care Goods and Services $6,761,935 $526 12,855 $791 8,549 Pet Food & Services $1,094,115 $162 6,754 $273 4,008 Apparel Services $441,351 $183 2,412 $265 1,665 NG&S SUBTOTAL $34,751,224 $91,065 67,726 Full-Service $23,476,901 $396 59,285 $562 41,774 Fast Food $7,177,361 $331 21,684 $394 18,217 Alcohol Away from Home $2,207,056 $458 4,819 $654 3,375 Snacks & Non-Alcoholic Beverages $1,731,600 $245 7,068 $370 4,680 F&B SUBTOTAL $34,592,919 $92,856 68,045 Home Furnishings $4,601,001 $310 14,842 $325 14,157 Apparel $3,069,329 $375 8,185 $420 7,308 Electronics, Sports and Music Equipment $727,298 $430 1,691 $462 1,574 Reading/Education $519,500 $300 1,732 $360 1,443 Pet Supplies $138,875 $162 857 $273 509 Automotive Equipment $84,126 $188 447 $241 349 GAFO SUBTOTAL $9,140,129 $27,755 25,340
RESIDENT-GENERATED $78,484,272 $211,675 161,111 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
32 | DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) TABLE 4. EMPLOYEE - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2029
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $16,647,130 $305 54,652 $431 38,607 Food & Beverage 35.00% $25,795,739 $358 72,156 $495 52,113 GAFO 5.00% $4,697,785 $294 15,970 $347 13,545
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $47,140,653 142,778 104,264 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense TABLE 5. OVERNIGHT VISITORS - GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND - PRIMARY TRADE AREA - 2029
Low Total Demand High Total Demand Capture Total Captured Category Productivity (Low Productivity (High Rate Expenditures Sales per SF Productivity) Sales per SF Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 15.00% $2,290,074 $305 7,518 $431 5,311 Food & Beverage 35.00% $2,914,640 $358 8,153 $495 5,888 GAFO 10.00% $832,754 $294 2,831 $347 2,401
EMPLOYEE-GENERATED $6,037,469 18,502 13,600 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
TABLE 6. RETAIL DEMAND SUMMARY - TOTAL (RESIDENTS+EMPLOYEES+OVERNIGHT VISITORS) - 2029 Total Captured Total Demand (Low Total Demand (High Category Expenditures Productivity) Productivity) Neighborhood Goods & Services 53,688,428 153,235 111,644 Food & Beverage 52,187,280 139,594 99,775 GAFO 12,707,901 40,485 34,162
TOTAL $118,583,609 333,314 245,581 RETAIL DEMAND:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Claritas, Inc., Streetsense
DRI SCHENECTADY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS - STREETSENSE (FEBRUARY 2020) | 33