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China's Foreign Exchange Black Market and Exchange Flight

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China's Foreign Exchange Black Market and Exchange Flight The Developing Economies, XXXVI-1 (March 1998): 24–44 CHINA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE BLACK MARKET AND EXCHANGE FLIGHT: ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY DING JIANPING INTRODUCTION HE foreign currency black market is a neglected area in research on the People’s Republic of China not only because of the lack of data availability T and credibility but also because of its connection with the underground economy. The data used in this paper is based on sampling investigations of ped- dlers and vendors in Shanghai, and also on the World Currency Yearbook.1 This data was modified and adjusted by the Shanghai Institute of Asian Research (1993), Wang (1991), and other sources. Since the semiofficial exchange rate2 var- ied from place to place, the black market exchange rate also varied greatly among the coastal cities in China. Nevertheless, this does not have a great effect as long as the slope and tendency bears the features of the market. Although official data on the volume of transactions in the black market is usually not available on a system- atic basis, formal and informal evidence suggests that the major sources within China of foreign exchange supply are smuggling, overinvoicing of imports and underinvoicing of exports, and from overseas Chinese remittances from abroad and border trading. Similarly, no direct information on the composition of foreign ex- change demand in the black market is generally available. The existence of ration- ing in the official exchange market in China suggests, however, that the illegal demand for foreign currency arises for both current and capital account transac- tions. Unsatisfied demand at the official rate spills into the black market. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– This article has benefited from suggestions by Assistant Professor Kyoji$ Fukao, Professors Jur$o$ Teranishi and Taku Yamamoto, and Assistant Professors Hidenobu Okuda and Eiji Ogawa from Hitotsubashi University as well as Professor Cheng Biaoru from East China Normal University. Their many helpful comments are gratefully acknowledged. 1 The book’s former title was Pick’s Currency Handbook (New York: Pick Publishing Corp.). This was changed in the early 1980s to the World Currency Yearbook edited by Philip P. Cowitt. The data about China’s black market ended during the Tian-anmen incident in 1989. 2 “Foreign exchange adjustment rate” in the swap center; the rate is based on the rates virtually agreed on between buyers and sellers of entities authorized to retain foreign exchange earnings. CHINA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE BLACK MARKET 25 The black market exchange rate usually includes a premium that reflects pent-up excess demand pressures that foreign exchange restrictions are intended to contain. It is the foreign exchange restrictions that lead to the emergence of the black mar- ket, whereas other administrative measures, such as import tariffs, import licenses, quotas, and so on, only exert some influence on this exchange rate. The premium has direct linkage to the scarcity of China’s foreign exchange and becomes the motive for evading such exchange rate restrictions. In China’s case, the black market exchange rate, being market-determined as in most other coun- tries, has shown large fluctuations, and higher volatility than the official rate. Be- sides the fundamental factors, noneconomic factors such as the upsurge in the num- ber of people going abroad, the Tian-anmen incident, and expectations of the re- sumption of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) membership also have some weight on the black market. Relying on research done by Agénor3 (1990) and Fukao (1983), this paper will also examine the determinants of China’s black market exchange rate through econometric approaches. Based on the same observation data and independent variables, China’s official rate and its exchange rate policy will be evaluated. The gap between the official and black market exchange rates may show a deviation of the official rate from the market mechanism. At the same time, the implications for China’s exchange rate policy may also be revealed. In addition to analyzing the black market exchange rate, the volume of foreign currencies in this market has been studied a great deal by Sheikh (1976), Pitt (1984), and others. In their papers, they modeled the black market for foreign ex- change to purchase illegal imports and the supply of foreign exchange available from illegal export. The role of the black market exchange rate in balancing the demand for smuggled imports and exports was pointed out explicitly. It was found that in a model of smuggling, legal transactions cloak illegal transaction, thereby reducing the cost. It was also found that increases in the exogenous demand for black market foreign exchange, perhaps for purposes of capital flight, act to in- crease export smuggling and the black market premium, and reduce import smug- gling. Smuggling and the black market cannot be eliminated by the increased pro- vision of legal foreign exchange if smuggling exists to avoid payment of trade taxes. Surprisingly their findings coincided in China’s case after the second unifi- cation. The remainder of this paper is arranged as follows. Section I describes the struc- ture of China’s black market currency exchange from both the supply and demand side. Section II seeks out the determinants of the black market exchange rates. 3 Pierre-Richard Agénor, an economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), developed a macroeconomic model for parallel currency market analysis in his paper (Agénor 1990). 26 THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Policy shocks and the implication of exchange rate policy are examined in particu- lar detail. As will be shown, devaluations of the official rate only reduced the black market premium in the short term and had no effects over the long run. Section III examines the linkage between exchange flight and the black market premium. Fi- nally, Section IV analyzes the behavior of the black market exchange rate during the two unifications.4 Current account convertibility does restrain the activities of the black market currency exchange, but does not uproot it. The ground still exists for this market as long as the market mechanism does not become fully established in China. This paper concludes with a discussion of the many related areas for further study. I. STRUCTURE AND CYCLE OF CHINA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE BLACK MARKET Black market exchanges are scattered all over the country, with large transactions taking place in the coastal cities. In the cities, the main locations for these ex- changes are at the front gates of the Bank of China. Black market exchanges can also be found outside other banks engaging in foreign exchange operations. Places like ambassadors’ residences, hotels, tourist resorts, “friendship shops,” and duty- free shops are frequented by black market vendors and peddlers. The flow of black market currency is shown in Figure 1. The operation of China’s black market currency exchange is organized into two parts: one is collecting various foreign currencies from the customers; the other is carrying the foreign currencies to the south (usually Guangdong) to sell at a higher price, a trip known as “errand running.” Such trips are run by air and may take a few days or up to one week. The foreign currencies are then smuggled to Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and in return higher-standard durable consumer goods are transported back to mainland China. Smuggling activities in coastal regions are rampant. Transactions on the high seas between fishermen from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, and the mainland cannot be underestimated (see Figure 2). There is a large discrepancy in trade statistics5 between the Hong Kong administration and the Chinese government. The Hong Kong figures indicate a lot more exports going 4 The first unification happened in January 1985, between the “foreign trade internal settlement rate” and the official rate, and the second unification took place in January 1994 between the “swap center exchange rate” and official rate. 5 These were calculated based on the Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF, various issues). For ex- ample, “exchange flight to Hong Kong” implies China’s exports to Hong Kong (based on Chinese figures) minus Hong Kong’s imports from China (based on Hong Kong figures), after making an allowance of 10 per cent for insurance and freight costs, shipping lags, and commodity misclassifications. The residual discrepancy reflects illegal trade to a significant extent. This method has been adopted by McDonald (1985). CHINA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE BLACK MARKET 27 Fig. 1. Headquarters Errand runner dispatched by air Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong Traders and brokers Customers Domestic enterprises, from false invoicing of Underground economy, in South trade figures China, through high sea transactions through imports and exports The United States and other industrialized countries Smuggling through fishermen to the mainland for which the Chinese administration has no figures for imports recorded. The currency collection part of this process is usually handled by a group of six people,6 each having a different role to play during the transaction. Altogether these venders and peddlers accumulate a variety of foreign currency and carry them to Guangdong or Fujian to sell in the underground economy (including to state-owned enterprises) at high prices. The route is from north to south, and from inland areas to the coastal regions (in particular, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dailien, and Fujian). Sources of foreign currency for the black market can be classified into the following categories. (1) Supply side Domestic residents. This category includes interpreters, tourist guides, taxi drivers, and workers in hotels, tourist souvenir shops, and joint ventures. On the whole, this category does not have much of a share of the market. Overseas Chinese home visits. Chinese from Hong Kong , Macao, and Taiwan make frequent trips to the mainland, are versed in the domestic situation, and will not convert their foreign exchange at the official rate.
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