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Helios Towers: Sub-Saharan Africa Tower Market Assessment And Lease Up Analysis Doc Ref: HTL HT Market Report 2019 31082019 r14 © Hardiman Telecommunications Ltd. 2019 All Rights Reserved 1 Hardiman Telecommunications Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HTL”) was engaged by Helios Towers Africa Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HT”) to undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment, to forecast HT tenancies in Tanzania, Ghana, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment in South Africa and Nigeria as per our letter of engagement. This report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) presents the findings of our assessment. Our duty of care and sole liability is to HT and to no other party. In undertaking the assessment HTL was provided with access to information provided by HT management. This Report was prepared by HTL on the basis of information provided by HT and from third party sources. HTL's remit did not encompass assessment of the veracity or validity of the information provided. While HTL has satisfied itself that the information contained in the Report is consistent with other information received, HTL makes no representation as to the veracity or validity of information referenced, assessed and/ or analysed. Some of the key findings of the Report are based on views of mobile market development, network investment, technology evolution and operating practices as deduced from information received. HTL accepts no responsibility for the actual realisation of any market or investment forecasts or HT’s performance. Actual results are likely to be different from those shown in this assessment of the prospective markets because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected and the difference may be material. This document does not constitute investment or financing advice to any party nor does it make recommendations as to whether HT should or should not proceed with its intended plans for the business. 2 I Executive Summary Page 3 II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5 III Estimated Market Size Page 12 IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14 V Technology Forecasts Page 20 VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25 0.36 VII Glossary Page 50 Page 3 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 3 Executive Summary – Key Takeaways • Mobile subscriber growth is forecast for each of the markets in which HT has operations. • Additionally in each of these markets the main MNOs are deploying 3G and 4G technologies to support the growing demand for mobile data services. The adoption and consumption of mobile data services is increasing across all SSA mobile markets. • The growing subscriber numbers and demand for mobile data services requires that the MNOs continue to build out network Growing mobile infrastructure and build new points of service (PoS). markets driving the Incremental Subscribers 2018-2024 Incremental PoS 2018-2024 demand for mobile towers. Tanzania 14.4m 5,084 DRC 24.9m 3,829 Ghana 5.5m 2,740 Congo-B 1.2m 375 South Africa 8.4m 7,020 • HT has been operating in Africa since 2010. In that time it has built a portfolio of 6,745 active sites through acquisition and Build to Suit and by the end of 2018 was hosting 13,014 tenants (not including South Africa). • In 2018, despite MNO consolidation in two of the markets of operation, HT active sites grew by 3.5% and tenancies grew by 4.2% (not including South Africa). HT is well • HT is a trusted partner of the MNOs. Airtel (Congo-B, DRC) Tigo (Ghana, Tanzania, DRC) and Vodacom (Tanzania) have sold established and is their tower portfolios to HT. the trusted partner of • Additionally all the major MNOs in their markets of operation use HT to build new sites (“B2S” or Build to Suit) and are colocated all the major MNOs. on HT towers. • In three of HT’s markets of operation (DRC, Tanzania and Congo-B) it is the only independent TowerCo. Ghana has three independent TowerCos (HT, American Tower and Eaton Towers, nevertheless the potential for lease up on the HT towers in Ghana is good given its urban weighted portfolio and HT has secured notable B2S contract wins. • Zonal analysis of the HT towers indicates that they are well located and are good candidates for MNO lease up. Page Source: HT Management, HTL Analysis 4 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 4 I Executive Summary Page 3 II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5 III Estimated Market Size Page 12 IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14 V Technology Forecasts Page 20 VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25 0.36 VII Glossary Page 50 Page 5 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 5 Tanzania – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 57.9m by 2024 Tanzania’s mobile market grew strongly during 2018: 3.5 m subscriptions (+9% YoY). We expect the Mobile market to grow to 57.9m by 2024 (2018-2024 CAGR of +4.9%) – an average of 2.4m new net adds per year over the forecast period. Continued strong subscriber growth is projected for Vodacom and Tigo. 60 Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriptions (m) Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE2018 43.5 40.0 40.0 50 0% 38.5 0.6 1% 31.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 40 0.8 0.1 3.9 27.1 1.6 3.4 9% 26.9 0.2 1.2 3.8 23.5 11.0 0.1 30 0.1 11.0 10.5 10.9 33% 0.1 9.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 8.4 9.0 1.4 20 7.0 1.7 12.6 25% 10.4 11.7 11.1 1.5 3.1 1.8 8.2 5.5 6.0 6.0 10 12.7 12.9 14.1 9.4 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.4 0 3% 29% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Vodacom TiGO Zantel Mobile Airtel Halotel Smart TTCL Mobile Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions Forecast (m) 57.9 60 [Hardiman Analysis] 55.6 53.2 50.7 48.2 50 45.9 43.5 40.0 40 30 20 10 0 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 6 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 6 DRC – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 62.6m by 2024 Mobile market is recovering from steep decline in penetration during 2016, when the number of mobile subscriptions declined by 9 m. The integration of Tigo by Orange is now complete. Both Vodacom and Orange launched 4G services in 2018. We anticipate that Airtel and Africell will deploy 4G equipment in the future. Assuming no material deterioration in political and macroeconomic conditions in the medium term, we project mobile market to grow to 63 m by 2024 – an average of 4.2 m new net adds per year. DRC Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m) DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE 2018 E 37.7 40 37.1 36.3 33.8 35 4.0 7.0 5.8 27.6 3.5 30 25.8 4.3 5.3 10.6 Africell 3.9 9.1 10% 25 20.3 3.7 5.1 5.3 1.8 20 0.9 7.3 Vodacom 15.3 1.8 3.9 10.3 3.0 9.2 8.1 9.3 Airtel 34% 15 1.50.0 2.4 7.6 6.8 27% 10 7.4 6.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.8 5 8.8 9.7 5.1 7.1 0 Orange 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 28% Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell DRC Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast 62.6 60 [HTL Analysis] 57.9 53.3 Decrease due to eeffects of: 48.9 50 • Ddeactivation of inactive SIMs by MNOs 44.8 • SIM registration requirements 17.2 40.9 15.8 40 37.7 14.5 33.8 13.3 12.1 11.06 30 17.6 10.6 16.2 9.1 14.9 13.6 12.4 20 11.33 9.3 10.3 10 19.0 20.4 15.2 16.4 17.7 12.0 12.8 14.05 0 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Page Source: Regulator, MNO Data, Hardiman Analysis 7 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 7 Ghana – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 44m subscriptions by 2024 Mobile penetration in Ghana is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa: estimated 129% at YE 2018. It is a vibrant mobile market with four established international MNOs active. MTN is the market leader. Airtel-Tigo merged in October 2017, creating a strong challenger to Vodafone for 2nd position in market. The number of subscriptions declined sharply in 2017. However, market growth resumed in 2018 and is forecast to continue – driven by the demand for data services. This will drive demand for additional operator PoS. Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions by Operator (m) Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares at YE2018E (%) [Sources: MNOs, NCA, HTL Analysis] 38.3 38.5 40 2% 35.0 0.7 35.2 0.7 35 30.4 1.4 4.6 0.8 10.3 28.0 4.8 30 25.6 1.5 5.3 9.7 1.5 3.7 4.9 27% 25 1.6 3.4 3.2 4.1 8.3 9.8 20 4.0 9.0 46% 3.7 7.6 7.1 6.0 15 5.3 10 19.3 16.3 15.7 17.7 12.9 13.9 5 11.7 25% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E MTN Vodafone Tigo Airtel AirtelTigo Glo Mobile Expresso 50 Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m) [HTL Analysis] 44.0 42.4 43.0 43.5 45 40.1 41.4 38.5 40 35.2 35 30 25 20 15 10 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 15.7 17.7 5 0 20172017 2018E2018E 2019F2019F 2020F 2020F 2021F 2021F 2022F 2022F 2023F 2023F2024F 2024 Page 8 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 8 Congo-B – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 6.0m subscriptions by 2024 Azur exited the mobile market in Congo-B in 2018.