Helios Towers: Sub-Saharan Africa Tower Market Assessment And Lease Up Analysis Doc Ref: HTL HT Market Report 2019 31082019 r14

© Hardiman Telecommunications Ltd. 2019 All Rights Reserved

1 Hardiman Telecommunications Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HTL”) was engaged by Helios Towers Africa Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HT”) to undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment, to forecast HT tenancies in Tanzania, Ghana, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment in South Africa and Nigeria as per our letter of engagement. This report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) presents the findings of our assessment. Our duty of care and sole liability is to HT and to no other party.

In undertaking the assessment HTL was provided with access to information provided by HT management. This Report was prepared by HTL on the basis of information provided by HT and from third party sources. HTL's remit did not encompass assessment of the veracity or validity of the information provided. While HTL has satisfied itself that the information contained in the Report is consistent with other information received, HTL makes no representation as to the veracity or validity of information referenced, assessed and/ or analysed.

Some of the key findings of the Report are based on views of mobile market development, network investment, technology evolution and operating practices as deduced from information received. HTL accepts no responsibility for the actual realisation of any market or investment forecasts or HT’s performance. Actual results are likely to be different from those shown in this assessment of the prospective markets because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected and the difference may be material.

This document does not constitute investment or financing advice to any party nor does it make recommendations as to whether HT should or should not proceed with its intended plans for the business.

2 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 3 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 3 Executive Summary – Key Takeaways

• Mobile subscriber growth is forecast for each of the markets in which HT has operations. • Additionally in each of these markets the main MNOs are deploying 3G and 4G technologies to support the growing demand for mobile data services. The adoption and consumption of mobile data services is increasing across all SSA mobile markets. • The growing subscriber numbers and demand for mobile data services requires that the MNOs continue to build out network Growing mobile infrastructure and build new points of service (PoS). markets driving the Incremental Subscribers 2018-2024 Incremental PoS 2018-2024 demand for mobile towers. Tanzania 14.4m 5,084 DRC 24.9m 3,829 Ghana 5.5m 2,740 Congo-B 1.2m 375 South Africa 8.4m 7,020

• HT has been operating in Africa since 2010. In that time it has built a portfolio of 6,745 active sites through acquisition and Build to Suit and by the end of 2018 was hosting 13,014 tenants (not including South Africa). • In 2018, despite MNO consolidation in two of the markets of operation, HT active sites grew by 3.5% and tenancies grew by 4.2% (not including South Africa). HT is well • HT is a trusted partner of the MNOs. Airtel (Congo-B, DRC) Tigo (Ghana, Tanzania, DRC) and Vodacom (Tanzania) have sold established and is their tower portfolios to HT. the trusted partner of • Additionally all the major MNOs in their markets of operation use HT to build new sites (“B2S” or Build to Suit) and are colocated all the major MNOs. on HT towers. • In three of HT’s markets of operation (DRC, Tanzania and Congo-B) it is the only independent TowerCo. Ghana has three independent TowerCos (HT, American Tower and Eaton Towers, nevertheless the potential for lease up on the HT towers in Ghana is good given its urban weighted portfolio and HT has secured notable B2S contract wins. • Zonal analysis of the HT towers indicates that they are well located and are good candidates for MNO lease up.

Page Source: HT Management, HTL Analysis 4 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 4 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 5 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 5 Tanzania – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 57.9m by 2024

Tanzania’s mobile market grew strongly during 2018: 3.5 m subscriptions (+9% YoY). We expect the Mobile market to grow to 57.9m by 2024 (2018-2024 CAGR of +4.9%) – an average of 2.4m new net adds per year over the forecast period. Continued strong subscriber growth is projected for Vodacom and Tigo.

60 Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriptions (m) Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE2018

43.5 40.0 40.0 50 0% 38.5 0.6 1% 31.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 40 0.8 0.1 3.9 27.1 1.6 3.4 9% 26.9 0.2 1.2 3.8 23.5 11.0 0.1 30 0.1 11.0 10.5 10.9 33% 0.1 9.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 8.4 9.0 1.4 20 7.0 1.7 12.6 25% 10.4 11.7 11.1 1.5 3.1 1.8 8.2 5.5 6.0 6.0 10 12.7 12.9 14.1 9.4 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.4 0 3% 29% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Vodacom TiGO Zantel Mobile Airtel Halotel Smart TTCL Mobile

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions Forecast (m) 57.9 60 [Hardiman Analysis] 55.6 53.2 50.7 48.2 50 45.9 43.5 40.0 40

30

20

10

0 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 6 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 6 DRC – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 62.6m by 2024

Mobile market is recovering from steep decline in penetration during 2016, when the number of mobile subscriptions declined by 9 m. The integration of Tigo by Orange is now complete. Both Vodacom and Orange launched 4G services in 2018. We anticipate that Airtel and Africell will deploy 4G equipment in the future. Assuming no material deterioration in political and macroeconomic conditions in the medium term, we project mobile market to grow to 63 m by 2024 – an average of 4.2 m new net adds per year.

DRC Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m) DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE 2018 E 37.7 40 37.1 36.3 33.8 35 4.0 7.0 5.8 27.6 3.5 30 25.8 4.3 5.3 10.6 Africell 3.9 9.1 10% 25 20.3 3.7 5.1 5.3 1.8 20 0.9 7.3 Vodacom 15.3 1.8 3.9 10.3 3.0 9.2 8.1 9.3 Airtel 34% 15 1.50.0 2.4 7.6 6.8 27% 10 7.4 6.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.8 5 8.8 9.7 5.1 7.1 0 Orange 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 28% Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell

DRC Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast 62.6 60 [HTL Analysis] 57.9 53.3 Decrease due to eeffects of: 48.9 50 • Ddeactivation of inactive SIMs by MNOs 44.8 • SIM registration requirements 17.2 40.9 15.8 40 37.7 14.5 33.8 13.3 12.1 11.06 30 17.6 10.6 16.2 9.1 14.9 13.6 12.4 20 11.33 9.3 10.3

10 19.0 20.4 15.2 16.4 17.7 12.0 12.8 14.05 0 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Page Source: Regulator, MNO Data, Hardiman Analysis 7 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 7 Ghana – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 44m subscriptions by 2024

Mobile penetration in Ghana is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa: estimated 129% at YE 2018. It is a vibrant mobile market with four established international MNOs active. MTN is the market leader. Airtel-Tigo merged in October 2017, creating a strong challenger to Vodafone for 2nd position in market. The number of subscriptions declined sharply in 2017. However, market growth resumed in 2018 and is forecast to continue – driven by the demand for data services. This will drive demand for additional operator PoS.

Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions by Operator (m) Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares at YE2018E (%) [Sources: MNOs, NCA, HTL Analysis] 38.3 38.5 40 2% 35.0 0.7 35.2 0.7 35 30.4 1.4 4.6 0.8 10.3 28.0 4.8 30 25.6 1.5 5.3 9.7 1.5 3.7 4.9 27% 25 1.6 3.4 3.2 4.1 8.3 9.8 20 4.0 9.0 46% 3.7 7.6 7.1 6.0 15 5.3 10 19.3 16.3 15.7 17.7 12.9 13.9 5 11.7 25% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E MTN Vodafone Tigo Airtel AirtelTigo Glo Mobile Expresso

50 Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m) [HTL Analysis] 44.0 42.4 43.0 43.5 45 40.1 41.4 38.5 40 35.2 35 30 25 20 15

10 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 15.7 17.7 5 0 20172017 2018E2018E 2019F2019F 2020F 2020F 2021F 2021F 2022F 2022F 2023F 2023F2024F 2024 Page 8 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 8 Congo-B – Summary – Mobile Market Mobile market is forecast to grow to 6.0m subscriptions by 2024

Azur exited the mobile market in Congo-B in 2018. Prior to Azur’s exit MTN and Airtel had an effective duopoly – the Azur exit had limited impact Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 1.2m between 2018 and 2024.

Congo B Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m) Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) YE 2018 6 6.0

5.1 4.8 5 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 0.2 4.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 4 0.2 4.0 1.1 0.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 3 2.2 1.9 3.0 1.7 1.5 Airtel 2 2.0 49% MTN 51% 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 1 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.0

0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MTN Airtel Warid Azur

6.0 Congo B Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m) 5.8 6 [Hardiman Analysis] 5.6 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 4.8 5 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 4 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 3 3.0

2 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1 1.0

0 0.0 20172017 20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F 2022 2023F 2023 2024F 2024 MTN Airtel Azur Page 9 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 9 South Africa – Mobile Market – Overview Vibrant market, including four major operators. Mobile penetration is high: 179%.

South Africa’s mobile market is highly penetrated: 179% at YE 2018 (103 m subscriptions). There are four significant operators active in South Africa: Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and Telkom SA. In addition there is an active MVNO segment: currently most MNVOs are hosted on the Cell C network.

South Africa Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%) 179% 120 167% 180% 157% • South Africa has four significant operators: Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and 152% 148% 102.6 137% 94.8 160% Telkom SA. All operators are achieving subscriber growth. 100 129% 88.4 83.5 82.5 140% • Penetration is extremely high: 174% at YE 2018 (100 m mobile 74.4 80 68.8 120% subscriptions in a population of 58 m). 100% 60 • Mobile ARPU is high relative to other SSA markets: Vodacom reported 80% ARPU of ZAR 95 ($US 7.0) in 3Q2018; MTN reported ZAR 98 ($US 7.1) 40 60% for the same period. 40% 20 • Vodacom is market leader by subscriptions: 43.8m subscriptions at YE 20% 2018: +2.2 m net adds YoY (+5.4%). 0 0% • MTN has the second largest share. MTN benefited from a very strong final 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 quarter in 2018. It reported with 29.5m subscriptions at end 3Q2018 but Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%) added 1.7m subscribers in Q4 to finish the year at 31.2m. • The subscriber base of 3rd MNO Cell C declined steeply during 2015 South Africa Market Subscriptions (m) Modest subscriber growth has resumed. Blue Label Telecoms acquired a 120 102.6 45% stake in Cell C for ZAR 5.5b in mid-2017 as part of the mobile 94.8 1.8 88.4 operator’s recapitalisation plan. 100 8… 82.5 2.5 8.6 2.4 th 74.4 2.4 2.4 4.9 • 4 operator Telkom SA has achieved strong subscriber growth since 2016. 3.6 17.2 80 68.8 2.4 2.1 2.6 16.3 It reported 5.2m subscriptions at end March 2018. Between March 2018 15.3 … 1.7 19.6 12.8 and March 2019 the Telkom mobile customer base increased by 86% to 1.5 13.6 60 10.1 29.5 31.2 9.7m. Year end 2018 subscriber estimate is 8.6m 30.6 30.8 25.7 28.0 • South Africa features a dynamic MVNO segment, with up to 10 active 40 25.4 players. The most high-profile MVNOs are Virgin Mobile, Hello Mobile, 43.8 FNB (First National Bank) Mobile and most recently Lycamobile. To date 20 36.4 41.6 29.5 31.0 31.4 34.1 most MVNOs in the South African market have been hosted on the Cell C 0 network. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Vodacom MTN Cell C Telkom SA Other

Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis Page 10 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 10 Mobile Market – Unique Subscribers

Unique Subscriber Penetration (YE 2018E) SIMs per Unique Subscriber (YE 2018E) Source: GSMA 1Q2019 Source: GSMA 1Q2019

South Africa 67% South Africa 2.5

Ghana 53% Ghana 2.4

Kenya 51% Burkina Faso 2.2

Cameroon 50% Congo B 2.0

Congo B 49% Zambia 1.8

Nigeria 49% Kenya 1.8

Rwanda 48% Tanzania 1.8

Zambia 46% Rwanda 1.6

Burkina Faso 45% Nigeria 1.6

Uganda 44% Cameroon 1.6

Angola 41% Niger 1.3

Tanzania 40% DRC 1.3

DRC 37% Uganda 1.3

Niger 32% Angola 1.1

Page 11 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 11 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 12 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 12 Tower Sector – Tanzania, DRC and Congo-B

Marketable Towers Tanzania 20181 Marketable Towers DRC 2018 5,610 2,802 200 , 4% 42, 2% Marketable Smart, 54 , 1% Marketable Towers Towers

250, 9%

1,399 , 25% 737 , 26%

3,613 , 64% 1,773 , 63%

Tigo, 344 , 6%

Marketable Towers Congo-B YE 2018 Estimate • An Independent TowerCo has been active in Tanzania since 2010 when HT acquired 1,020 towers from Tigo. HT subsequently acquired 1,149 773 towers from Vodacom and has built to suit more that 1,278 towers for Marketable Towers Vodacom and Tigo. • HT has been active as the sole independent TowerCo in DRC since 2010. 48, It entered the market by acquiring towers from Tigo. 47, 6% 6% • HT has further consolidated their market leading position in DRC with the acquisition of 696 towers from Airtel in 2016. As part of this contract HT also acquired management rights over an additional 271 Airtel sites. Since 380, 2016 HT has acquired 200 of these sites and expects to fully acquire these 49% the remaining sites. • HT entered the Congo B market in 2015 following the acquisition of 369 298, greenfield towers and 24 rooftop towers from Airtel. HT is the only 39% independent towerco active in the market. • Infrastructure sharing was a feature of the market prior to the entry of HT. 34%, 40% and 90% of MTN, Azur and Airtel PoS are colocated on 3rd party sites – Airtel proportion of colocated PoS is highest as a result of the HT transaction. Page 13 1. Source: HT, MNOs HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 13 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 14 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 14 HT Tanzania – Market Demand An additional 5,084 operator PoS estimated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 14.4 m between 2018 and 2024. Growing mobile subscribers and site deployment required to support data demand will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 16,920 forecast for 2024

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions Forecast (m) 57.9 60 [Hardiman Analysis] 55.6 53.2 50.7 48.2 5.4 50 45.9 5.1 4.8 43.5 4.5 4.3 40.0 4.1 13.1 • Tanzania’s mobile market grew 40 3.9 12.4 12.8 12.1 strongly during 2018: 3.5 m 3.8 11.7 11.3 11.0 subscriptions (+9% YoY). 30 10.9 • Mobile penetration at YE 2018 was 17.1 17.6 16.0 16.6 72% - below the average sub 14.5 15.2 20 13.7 Saharan African penetration level of 12.0 73%. • Halotel, the most recent entrant, 10 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7 subscriber growth slowed 12.9 14.1 14.9 15.7 significantly in 2018. 0 • We forecast that subscriber growth 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F will be sustained throughout the period 2018 to 2024. MNO PoS Forecast • Mobile penetration is expected to grow from 72% in 2018 to 81% in 2024. • Mobile subscriber growth is a driver 16,920 of demand for additional Operator 15,667 14,716 PoS. 13,203 13,936 11,836 12,502 • Continued roll-out of 3G and higher uptake of recently launched 4G services are projected to drive further subscriber growth and is expected to drive some site densification.

2018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 15 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 15 HT DRC – Market Demand An additional 3,829 operator PoS estimated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile market subscriber numbers in the DRC grew 6.2 m in 2017 – The 3 largest MNOs all reported large subscriber increases. Market growth was sustained through 2018 and is forecast to continue. Mobile subscriber numbers are projected to grow by 24.9m between 2018 and 2024. Growing mobile subscribers and MNO planned network investments are expected to drive the demand for new operator PoS – 9,470 forecast for 2024

DRC Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast 62.6 57.9 60 [Hardiman Analysis] 7.5 53.3 6.8 48.9 50 6.2 44.8 5.6 17.2 40.9 5.0 15.8 40 37.7 14.5 33.8 4.46 3.95 13.3 12.1 3.533.4 11.06 30 17.6 10.6 16.2 9.17.0 14.9 13.6 12.4 20 8.0 11.33 9.3 10.3 • The mobile market in DRC dipped 8.8 in 2016 as a result of a number of 10 19.0 20.4 15.2 16.4 17.7 factors: 12.0 12.8 14.05 • 2017 witnessed a return to 0 subscriber growth. Net market 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F adds of 6.2m were reported for the year. The 2017 growth was MNO PoS Forecast sustained through 2018. 9,470 • Mobile penetration in DRC is very 8,625 low – 44% at year end 2017. 7,934 • We forecast the mobile penetration 7,323 6,689 will grow to 61% by 2024. 6,168 5,641

2018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024 Source: Hardiman Analysis

Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 16 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 16 HT Ghana – Market Demand An additional 2,740 operator PoS indicated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 5.5 m between 2018 and 2024. Growing mobile subscribers and data related site densification will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 10,555 forecast for 2024

50 Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m) [HTL Analysis] 43.0 43.5 44.0 45 41.4 42.4 40.1 38.5 40 35.2 12.0 11.4 11.6 11.8 35 10.8 11.1 10.3 30 9.7 11.3 25 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 9.8 10.1 20 9.0 • The mobile market is Ghana is mature and has entered a market 15 consolidation phase. 10 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 • In 2017 Airtel and Tigo announced 15.7 17.7 5 that they would merge to form a single opco Airtel-Tigo. 0 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024 • The mobile market contracted in 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Ghana in 2017. • Market growth resumed in 2018 and further growth is forecast MNO PoS Forecast • MNO POS numbers were impacted by the consolidation. The 10,555 10,021 combined Airtel-Tigo network 9,544 9,088 reduced POS numbers from 2,441 8,669 8,251 7,815 in 2017 to 1,617 in 2018. • Much of the MNO network activity is expected to be driven by the rollout of 3G and 4G networks

20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

Page Source: NCA, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 17 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 17 HT Congo-B – Market Demand Modest market growth will drive the demand for an additional 375 operator PoS

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 1.2m between 2018 and 2024 Growing mobile subscribers will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 1,422 forecast for 2024

Congo B Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m) 6.0 [Hardiman Analysis] 5.6 5.8 6 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.8 5 0.21 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 4 2.6 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 3 3.0 • Congo-B is effectively a two-player

2 2.0 mobile market : MTN and Airtel. 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 • Azur made little impact and exited 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1 1.0 the market in 2018. • The mobile market contracted 0 0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 marginally in 2018 as a result of 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F the Azur market exit • Subscriber growth is expected to MNO PoS Forecast resume in 2018 . 1,422 • Mobile penetration is expected to 1,325 1,255 grow from 88% in 2018 to 94% in 1,193 1,101 1,135 2024. 1,047 • The forecast subscriber growth is expected to drive the demand for additional operator PoS.

2018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

Source: Hardiman Analysis Page 18 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 18 South Africa – Market Demand Market growth is expected to drive the demand for an additional 7,020 operator PoS by 2024

Mobile penetration is very high in South Africa. Increases in PoS numbers will be driven by demand for high quality data services and increased utilisation of mobile data services.

South Africa Mobile Market Subscription Forecast (m)

106.7 108.3 109.6 110.3 111.0 120 102.6 104.7 94.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 100.0 1.9 2.0 100 1.8 12.1 12.6 12.7 12.8 8.6 9.9 11.1 2.5 • Mobile market subscriptions are 4.9 80.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 80 16.3 forecast to grow to 111 m by 2024 – an average of 1.4 m new net 60.0 60 31.3 31.5 31.6 31.8 31.9 32.0 adds per year. 29.5 31.2 40.0 • Vodacom, MTN and CellC are 40 projected to achieve only modest subscriber growth. 20 41.6 43.8 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.6 20.0 • Telkom is expected to continue to 0 0.0 grow subscribers and market 20172017 20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 20242024F share albeit at a lower growth rate that the 49% CAGR achieved MNO PoS Forecast between 2015 and 2018. 39,191 37,863 40,000 36,595 • We forecast an additional 8.4m 34,255 35,364 33,058 subscribers will join the South 35,000 32,171 African mobile market by 2024. 30,000 This along with increasing data 25,000 usage and infill sites required to 20,000 improve data QoS will drive the demand for an estimated additional 15,000 7,020 PoS to accommodate growth 10,000 in voice and data traffic.. 5,000

0 20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

Page Source: Hardiman Analysis 19 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 19 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 20 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 20 Tanzania – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand An additional 24,793 Network PoS are expected to be built between 2018 and 2024

Network PoS growth will be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE. Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G/4G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks. Network PoS will grow as MNOs install 3G and 4G equipment on existing 2G sites and on new sites.

Tanzania Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

45,891

41,276 38,278 15,878 34,209 13,453 11,730 28,882 8,832

24,933 5,356 3,483 21,098 15,236 13,859 1,634 13,217 12,547 11,176 9,571 8,040

13,331 13,964 14,777 11,424 11,879 12,350 12,830

20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

2G 3G LTE

Source: Hardiman Analysis Page 21 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 21 DRC – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand An additional 14,995 Network PoS are expected to be built between 2018 and 2024

Network PoS growth will be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites. Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks. Network PoS will grow as MNOs install 3G and 4G equipment on existing 2G sites and on new sites.

DRC Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

26,238

23,885

22,013 9,017 19,310 8,210 7,535 15,620 5,840

13,025 3,334 9,207 11,243 1,858 8,213 1,047 7,445 6,843 6,112 5,362 4,781

8,014 6,627 7,033 7,462 5,415 5,805 6,174

20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

2G 3G LTE

Page 22 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 22 Ghana – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand An additional 11,044 Network PoS are expected to be built between 2018 and 2024

Network PoS growth is expected to be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites. At year end 2018 there were an estimated 1,286 LTE PoS in Ghana Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks. Network PoS will grow as MNOs install 3G and 4G equipment on existing 2G sites and on new sites.

Ghana Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

26,889 25,248 23,995

22,171 7,881 7,120 6,496 19,326 5,251 17,320 3,081 15,845 1,846 1,286 10,021 9,487 8,850 9,153 8,416 7,888 7,023

8,641 8,987 7,536 7,586 7,829 8,070 8,346

20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

2G 3G LTE

Page 23 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 23 Congo-B – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand An additional 1,759 Network PoS are expected to be built between 2018 and 2024

Network PoS growth is likely to driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites. Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks. Network PoS will grow as MNOs install 3G and 4G equipment on existing 2G sites and on new sites.

Congo-B Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

3,951

3,531

3,190 1,301 2,899 1,069 2,631 845 2,426 669 2,192 513 368 237 1,305 1,202 1,157 1,022 1,094 933 1,001

1,345 1,188 1,260 1,022 1,057 1,096 1,136

20182018 20192019F 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024

2G 3G LTE

Page 24 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 24 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 25 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 25 DRC – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary 4 main operators: market leader has 35% market share, two MNOs have 27-28% each, 4th has 10%.

Item Vodacom Airtel Orange Africell

Licence Date 1999 2000 2001 2012

Number of PoS YE 2018 2,439 1,411 1,491 275

Subscribers YE 2018E 12.8 m 10.3 m 10.6 m 4.0 m

Market Share 35% 28% 27% 10%

Revenue Share (FY 2017) 42% 25% 25% 8%

Technology 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100

Strong subscriber and Airtel had been market leader Combination of Orange/Tigo Africell’s strategy is built network growth. until 2012, but suffered from spectrum allocations led to around “Community Claims highest average market entry of Africell. improved coverage – notably involvement”. for mobile broadband 3G data download Airtel does not yet have a 4G Africell marketing mix services. speeds in market offering. This puts it at a involves intensive use of (5.7Mbit/s). At least 30% competitive disadvantage to 4G launched in May 2018 – social media and mobile data 3G coverage. Vodacom and Orange. initial roll-out in urban platforms. Marketing centres. proposition is strongly Comment 4G launched in May 2018 centred on low price and – initial roll-out in urban youth segment. centres.

Source: ARPTC, Hardiman Analysis, MNOs, HT Data Page 26 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 26 DRC – Mobile Market – Operators Three major MNOs – Vodacom, Orange, Airtel – share 89% of subscriptions. Africell 11%.

Following acquisition of Tigo subscribers by Orange in 2016, the DRC market features four strong players. Vodacom (35% share) is market leader. Airtel (28%) and Orange (27%) contend for 2nd place. Africell (11%) continues to challenge, but ARPU is lower. Vodacom and Orange have launched 4G.

Subscriber Market Share Mobile Market Characteristics

DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE 2018 E

Africell • Vodacom is market leader with 35% subscriber share at YE 2018 11% • Airtel (now 28%) had been market leader prior to Africell’s entry into the Vodacom market in November 2012. Airtel’s performance has been static ever since. Airtel 35% 28% • The acquisition of Tigo by Orange from Millicom in 2016 created a player of significant scale, capable of contending with Airtel for second position in

Orange the DRC mobile market. However, Orange revenues have been static at 27% €60m per quarter despite growth in customer base: • Africell entered the mobile market in late 2012. Within 2 years, by YE2014, Africell had won 7.0m subscribers. DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Shares • There is intense competition between the four main operators. At the same 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% time these operators avoid aggressive competition on price as a response 10% 4% 10% 11% to the fall in disposable income of their subscriber bases. There is 9% 14% 19% 16% 14% 16% 7% awareness that this would risk damaging the market over the longer term. 15% 15% 27% 12% 26% 27% 15% • 3G was launched in 2012, stimulating demand for infill sites in the DRC. 14% 15% 40% 36% • Both Vodacom and Orange finally obtained 4G licences in May 2018 – after 29% 25% 27% 28% 25% 22% years of delay by NRA ARPTC. Both had already been testing the service, and both announced commercial launches of 4G, initially in Kinshasa, during that same month - May 2018. 34% 35% 34% 31% 33% 35% 35% 35%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell Others

Page Source: Regulator, MNOs, Hardiman Forecasts 27 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 27 DRC – Mobile Market – Overview Recovery in mobile penetration continued during 2018 – scope for further growth, as 4G launched

Mobile market is recovering from steep decline in penetration during 2016, when the number of mobile subscriptions declined by 9 m. SIM registration process is now more efficient. The integration of Tigo by Orange is now complete. Both Vodacom and Orange launched 4G services in 2018. However, disposable incomes in DRC remain low: the Congolese Franc continues to depreciates against $US. This acts as a restraint on ARPU growth.

DRC Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration • DRC mobile penetration (active SIMs) declined from 47% at YE 2015 to Sources: ARPTC, MNOs, ITU, UN 34% YE 2016, but has recovered steadily to 44% by YE2018E. Remains 68% 73% 72% 73% among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa – regional average is 73% at YE 57% 63% 80% 51 51% 49% 44% 60% 2017. 36% 47% 41% 29% 34% 23% 40% • The arrival of Africell in the market from late 2012 added particular 41 37.1 36.3 37.7 33.8 20% impetus to market subscriber growth – notably to YE2014. During 2016 all operators reported steep declines in subscription. 31 25.8 27.6 0% 20.3 -20% • Key factors behind the decline in subscriptions: 21 15.3 -40% • The government’s SIM registration programme: Many SIMs were -60% 11 deactivated, as required by government policy. New sales were -80% hindered by operational teething problems of SIM registration process. 1 -100% • Change by MNOs in methodology of recognising and counting SIMs 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E • Orange acquisition of Tigo, formally completed in 4Q2016. DRC subs m DRC Penetration % SSA Average Penetration % Consolidation of the 2 entities resulted in a further reduction in active SIM numbers, as holders of dual SIMs relinquished one of them. DRC Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m) • The effects of the SIM registration have largely passed. Subscriber 37.7 growth has resumed. 40 37.1 36.3 33.8 • All operators independently report continued subscriber growth during 35 4.0 7.0 5.8 2018, in line with ARPTC statements. 27.6 3.5 30 25.8 • We base our analysis on ‘active SIMs’ - SIMs that have had a 4.3 5.3 10.6 25 3.9 9.1 chargeable event within an MNO-designated time frame, typically 90 3.7 20.3 5.1 5.3 days. In some cases ARPTC quotes a higher figure for subscriptions 1.8 20 0.9 7.3 15.3 1.8 3.9 10.3 than that reported by the MNO. In these cases we adopt the more 3.0 9.2 8.1 9.3 15 1.50.0 conservative MNO figure. 2.4 7.6 6.8 10 7.4 • Subscriber growth rate in DRC exceeds net population growth growth 6.2 rate. The mobile penetration rate will increase as a result. We expect it 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.8 5 8.8 9.7 converge upon average African penetration levels over the medium to 5.1 7.1 0 longer term. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E • The launch of 4G services by both Vodacom and Orange during 2Q2018 Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell will accelerate data service growth. Page Source: Regulator, MNOs, Hardiman Forecasts 28 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 28 DRC – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration Mobile penetration rate of 61% achievable by 2024 – 63 m mobile market subscriptions

DRC Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%) 80 61% 58% 55% 60% Summary of HTL forecast assumptions: 70 52% 49% 62.6 • Population at YE2017 was 82.7m. Projected to 46% 57.9 60 44% 50% increase to 102.7m by YE2024 (+3.1% CAGR). 41% 53.3 48.9 [Source: UN Population Division]. 50 44.8 40% 40.9 37.7 • Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017 was 41% 40 33.8 30% (33.8m subscriptions). Projected to increase to 62.6m 30 by 2024 (+9.2% CAGR) 20% 20 Commentary on Assumptions: 10% 10 a) Population • We accept the UN view that the starting point 0 0% 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F estimates of DRC’s National Statistics Institute (INS) are too high. Instead of INS mid-year 2015 85.0m, we Mobile Subscriptions m Penetration (%) have adopted UN 76.2m. However, there is general agreement on projected growth rate to 2024: +3.1% - +3.2% CAGR. Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets at YE 2017 (%) b) Mobile Penetration vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices) 140% • DRC mobile penetration at YE2017 (41%) is well correlated with GDP per capita ($US 478) when R² = 0.0821 120% benchmarked against peer markets.

100% • The IMF WEO’s most recent forecast (Oct-18) projects modest growth in Nominal GDP per Capita to $US 525 80% in 2023 (+1.6% CAGR) DRC 2017 60% • Mobile penetration in the >60% range has already been achieved in Sub-Saharan markets with similar (or DRC 2020 40% lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably: DRC 2023

20% • Sierra Leone: 2017 Penetration 84%, 2016 GDP per Mobile Penetration (World Bank) (World Penetration Mobile Other HTA markets 2017 Capita $US 488, 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO October 2017] Page Source: Regulator, MNOs, World Bank, ITU, UN, Hardiman Forecasts 29 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 29 Tanzania – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary 11 licensed operators in Tanzania but only 6 are operational

Category Vodacom Airtel Tigo / Zantel Halotel TTCL Smart

Licence Date 2000 2001 1994 2008 2006 2007

Number of POS 3,018 2,127 3,030 2,923 TBC TBC (YE 2018 Estimate)

Subscribers 13.7m (12.6m 14.0m 11.0m 3.9m 0.6m 0.1m (YE 2018) Tigo, 1.2m Zantel)

Market Share 32% (28.9% Tigo, 33% 25% 9% 1.3% 0.3% (YE 2018) 2.7% Zantel)

Vodacom Airtel investment in Tigo investment in Halotel continues to 100% government- Smart launched as continues to invest TZ market has TZ market still invest actively in TZ owned since Jun- mobile operator actively in TZ slowed. strong despite market. 16, when Bharti subsidiary of the market. uncertain strategic Airtel sold own 35% Aga Khan fund for Has lost market Main focus is on rural focus from owner stake. Economic 25% of company share due to connectivity. Halotel Millicom Group. Development shares were complex customer has stated that it plans Launched 4G LTE (AKFED) in 2014. floated on DSE in registration In early 2019 to deploy 300 3G and services in 2015 August 2017, process and strong Millicom applied to 500 4G sites during and LTE-A in 2016. Subscriber base raising $210m. price competition. Fair Competition 2019. reached 1.6m at YE Comment Commission (FCC) 2015, but has now to increase holding dwindled to near in Zantel to 99.9%. zero.

Page Sources: TCRA, MNOs, Hardiman Analysis 30 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 30 Tanzania – Mobile Market – Operators Three established international MNOs account for 89% of SIMs. Viettel continues to invest.

89% of mobile subscriptions are held by 3 MNOs: Vodacom (33%), Tigo plus acquisition Zantel (32%) and Airtel (25%). Further consolidation in the market is possible: long-term plans of Millicom and Bharti Airtel are uncertain. 4th player Halotel (Viettel Group) remains committed to the market.

Subscriber Market Share Mobile Market Characteristics

Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE2018 • Four major international MNOs operate in Tanzania: • Three of these accounted for 89% of active SIMs at YE 2018: Vodacom 0% 1% (33% subscriber market share), Tigo/Zantel (32%) and Airtel (25%).

9% • The 4th significant MNO is Halotel, owned by Viettel Group. Halotel entered the market in 2015. It rapidly won 9% market share but its 33% share has stabilised at this level. 25% • Fixed-line incumbent TTCL has focused on the mobile segment since 2017. Subscriptions have increased from 0.2 m at YE 2016 to 0.6 m at YE 2018 (1.3% subscriber market share). 29% 3% • Consolidation has been a key feature of Tanzania’s mobile market: • Tigo acquired Zantel (main operator on Zanzibar archipelago) during 2015. The two operators continue to operate for the time being under their former brand identities. Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) 1.3% 0.8% • Of 11 registered operators only 7 are active. 4% 2% 0.3% 0.3% 3% 9% 10% 9% • Mobile market ARPU is low but stable: Vodacom reported average ARPU 30% 31% 33% 30% 29% 26% 27% 25% of $US 2.7 for 2018. Voice remains the largest component of ARPU, but 6% 5% data share is growing. 11% 7% 4% 3% 2% 3% 23% 26% • There is strong uptake of of Mobile financial services (MFS). MFS is a key 22% 22% 27% 28% 29% 29% driver of mobile subscriber growth. This reflects low penetration of standard banking facilities in Tanzania. The TCRA reported 23.3 m mobile money 40% subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 54% of total mobile subscriptions. 35% 38% 38% 33% 31% 32% 33% Vodacom M-Pesa is market leader with 9.0m subscriptions (39% market share); Tigo Pesa / Zantel Ezy Pesa 7.6 m and 0.5 m respectively 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (combined share 35%), Airtel Money 4.8 m (21%), Halotel 1.3 m (6%). Vodacom TiGO Zantel Mobile Airtel Halotel Smart TTCL Mobile

Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 31 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 31 Tanzania – Mobile Market – Overview Market subscriber growth recovered during 2018: +9% YoY

Tanzania’s mobile market grew strongly during 2018: 3.5 m subscriptions (+9% YoY). The effects of the TCRA SIM registration programme have passed; market rebalancing following aggressive 2015 sales activity; MNOs in process of listing 25% of shares on DSE, as required by government. Uncertainty among market players as Millicom considers its participation in Africa markets. Azam announced mobile market entry but no date indicated.

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%) • Tanzania mobile penetration reached 72% at YE2018. This remains [Sources: TCRA, MNOs, ITU, UN Population Division] slightly below the average penetration rate for the Sub-Saharan Africa 0.1 73% 72% 73% 80% (73% at YE 2017). Further scope for subscriber growth is indicated. 68% 0.1 63% 70% • 2015 had seen exceptional subscriber growth: +7.1m (+23% YoY). This 57% 70% 71% 72% 69% 60% was driven by market entry of Halotel (Viettel Group) and Smart. 0.1 51% 43.5 40.0 40.0 Attractive promotions drove take-up of new SIMs. 59% 38.5 50% 0.0 54% 53% 31.4 • Subscriber growth slowed in 2016 (1.5m net adds or +4% YoY) and 49% 40% 0.0 26.9 27.1 stalled completely in 2017. Reasons for slowdown include: cancellation 23.5 30% of unregistered SIMs; consolidation of Tigo and Zantel subscriber bases 0.0 20% after 2015 merger; blocking of nearly 2 m counterfeit handsets by TCRA;

0.0 higher than usual churn as a result of aggressive promotions. 10% • Strong subscriber growth resumed in 2018: +3.5 m (+8.9% YoY). This 0.0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 growth was shared between two MNOs: market leader Vodacom and TZA Active Subs (m) TZA Penetration % Sub-Saharan Africa Penetration % Tigo/Zantel. Tigo/Zantel achieved strongest YoY growth (+1.7m), vs. Vodacom +1.3m. Airtel’s subscriber base is stable - c. 11m since 2015. • All MNOs are required by a 2016 law to float at least 25% of stock on the Dar Stock Exchange (DSE). The rationale is to improve transparency, as 60 Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriptions (m) well as given citizens the opportunity to invest in a rising sector. Vodacom is the only MNO to have complied to date. Tigo’s flotation was delayed by 40.0 43.5 50 40.0 an ownership dispute, but is due to take place in 2019. Airtel’s IPO is 38.5 0.6 31.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 problematic due to the company’s high level of accumulated losses. 40 0.8 0.1 3.9 27.1 1.6 3.4 • Continued roll-out of 3G and higher uptake of recently launched 4G 26.9 0.2 1.2 3.8 23.5 11.0 services are projected to drive further subscriber growth. Tigo 4G LTE 30 0.1 0.1 11.0 10.5 10.9 0.1 9.6 1.2 services have been available in 24 urban locations since 2015 – Tigo 1.1 0.9 8.4 9.0 1.4 announced LTE-A launch (4G+) in September 2018. Vodacom formally 20 7.0 1.7 12.6 10.4 11.7 11.1 1.5 3.1 1.8 8.2 received its 4G licence in July 2018 – it will deploy in the 700MHz band. 5.5 6.0 6.0 10 • In June 2018 Bakhresa Group, operator of AzamTV, announced intention 12.9 14.1 9.4 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.7 12.4 to enter the mobile market under the Azam brand, promising “high quality 0 services at very affordable rates for all Tanzanians”. Azam plans to use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for which Bakhresa paid $US 10 m at Vodacom TiGO Zantel Mobile Airtel Halotel Smart TTCL Mobile auction. However, no further details re launch date have been provided. Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 32 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 32 Tanzania – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration Mobile penetration rate of 80% achievable by 2024 – over 57m mobile market subscriptions

Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriber and Penetration Forecast (m, %) Summary of HTL forecast assumptions: [HTL Analysis] • Population at YE2017 - 58.2m. Projected to increase to 80% 81% 71.6m by YE2024 (+3.0% CAGR) [Source: UN] 70 76% 77% 79% 72% 74% 80% 71% 69% 57.9 60 55.6 • Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017 was 69% 53.2 70% 48.2 50.7 (40.0 m subscriptions). Projected to increase to 81% 50 43.5 45.9 60% 40.0 40.0 (57.9 m subscriptions) by 2024 (+5.5% CAGR) 40 50% 40% Commentary on Assumptions: 30 30% a) Population 20 20% • The last census was conducted in 2012. National 10 10% Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a mid-year 2012 0 0% population of 44.9m. However, the UN Population 2016 2017 20182018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024 Division restated this as 49.1m, citing methodological issues with NBS approach. Mobile Subscribers m Penetration (%) • We adopt the UN estimates and forecasts, which envisage an annual growth rate of 3.1% in 2017 reducing gradually to 3.0% by 2024. Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%) vs. GDP per Capita ($US, current prices) b) Mobile Penetration 140% R² = 0.0762 • Tanzania’s current mobile penetration (69% at YE2017, 120% 72% at YE2018) is well correlated with GDP per capita ($US 1,034) when benchmarked against peer markets. 100% • IMF forecasts Tanzania GDP per capita to grow to 80% $US1,481 by 2023 (+6.2% CAGR), with mobile penetration growing to 79% by 2023. 60% • Mobile penetration above 80% has already been achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with similar (or 40% Tanzania 2017 lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably:

Mobile Penetration (World Bank) (World Penetration Mobile 20% Tanzania 2020 • Mauritania: 2017 Penetration 83%, 2017 GDP per Tanzania 2023 Capita $US 1,243 0% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 • Zimbabwe : 2017 Penetration 84%, 2017 GDP per GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO Oct-18] Capita $US 1,185 Page Source: Regulator, MNOs, ITU, IMF-WEO, Hardiman Analysis 33 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 33 Tanzania – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband Mobile broadband penetration growing strongly – 33% at YE 2017 – well above SSA average (26%)

Over 22 m mobile wireless internet users at YE 2018 – equivalent to 51% of total mobile subscriptions (up from 48% at YE 2017) MBB population coverage in Tanzania is now among the highest in the region at 85% (3G) at YE 2017. 4G coverage still low, however, at 13%.

Tanzania Mobile Broadband Subscriptions (m) and MBB MBB Penetration (% Population) at YE 2017 Penetration (%) [Sources: TCRA, ITU] Source: ITU, Hardiman analysis 60.0 51% 60% Gabon 84% 45% 48% Ghana 82% 42% 50% South Africa 70% 50.0 36% 37% 33% 40% Botswana 67% 40.0 28% 30% 32% Mauritius 59% 22% 30% 33% Namibia 56% 16% 21% 31% 30.0 15% 20% Côte d'Ivoire 54% 12% 26% 22.3 8% 19% 19.0 Togo 52% 16% 16.3 18.0 10% 20.0 10% Lesotho 49% 5% 11.3 0% Zambia 45% 7.5 10.0 6.0 Zimbabwe 41% 3.7 -10% Rwanda 35% 0.0 -20% Kenya 34% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tanzania 33% Mali 31% TNZ MBB subs (000s) TNZ MBB as % Mobile Subs Burkina Faso 29% Gambia 27% Africa MBB as % Mobile Subs TNZ MBB Penetration (%) Senegal 27% SSA Average 26% Mozambique 26% Sierra Leone 26% • Tanzania’s NRA TCRA reports 23.1 m Internet users (connections) at YE Malawi 26% Guinea 25% 2018. Of these 96% (22.3 m) were mobile wireless. Uganda 23% Chad 23% • Mobile broadband user numbers grew at a 5-year CAGR of +24% from Nigeria 20% 2013 to 2018. 2018 YoY growth was +17% (+3.3 m users) Cameroon 18% Congo B 17% • Continued roll out of 3G and 4G networks will drive further take-up, subject DRC 16% to availability of affordable smartphones Angola 15% Ethiopia 14% Eswatini 13% • Subscriptions to other Internet technologies had declined to YE2015 but Madagascar 13% recovered during 2016, in line with the demand for fixed broadband and the Burundi 13% availability of LTE: Benin 12% Liberia 12% • Fixed wireless: from 1.2m at YE 2016 to 3.5m at YE 2017: +184% YoY. Guinea-Bissau 9% CAR 5% Niger 4% • Fixed wired: from 0.6m at YE 2016 to 0.5m at YE 2016: -18% CAGR. South Sudan 4%

Page 34 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 34 Congo-B – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary Two MNOs – MTN and Airtel. Both are subsidiaries of major international groups

Item MTN Airtel

Licence Date 2000 1999

Number of PoS 474 495

Subscriptions at YE 2018 2.5 m 2.3 m

Market Share 51% 49%

Estimated Revenue Share >55% <45%

Technologies 2G/3G/4G 2G/3G/4G

Market leader with good coverage and high value Aspires to outperform MTN in terms of coverage. customer base. At launch of 4G service in December 2018 Airtel already claimed MTN 4G population coverage is reported as 50% at YE 83% population coverage. It reported 250 4G sites at launch. 2018. Airtel markets the Airtel 4G network as “the largest and most stable in Congo”. This has not been independently verified, MTN reported 149 4G sites at end 1H2018 – 14% of total however. sites (1,079 – of which 50% 2G and 36% 3G). Subscribers are invited to present their 3G SIMs at any Airtel store and receive a 4G SIM free of charge, including 5 GB of free credit. Comment

Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 35 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 35 Congo-B – Mobile Market – Operators Two established international MNOs – MTN and Airtel – share 100% of all mobile subscriptions.

MTN is market leader with 51% subscriber market share. MTN benefited from the exit of Warid from the market in 2014 – it immediately increased market share from 38% at YE 2013 to 44% at YE 2014. MTN further increased market share in 2015 but Airtel has responded with progressive increases in market share. With the exit of Azur in 2Q2018 the Congo-B market is a duopoly: 51% MTN, 49% Airtel. Subscriber Market Share Mobile Market Characteristics

Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) YE 2018

Airtel 49% MTN 51% • Congo-B now has tow active MNOs: MTN and Airtel. • The number of active mobile subscriptions declined by -5% during 2018 – mainly due to the exit of Azur. • MTN is market leader – MTN market share was 51% at YE 2018. Subscriptions declined slightly during 2018: -2.8% YoY. MTN reported 0.4m active mobile data users at end 1H2018 (19% of total MTN Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) subscriptions); equal to 49% of MTN’s 0.9m smartphone owners during the period. 5% 6% 8% 7% 7% 4% 15% • Airtel achieved modest subscriber growth during 2018: +0.7% YoY. The 24% 49% slight decline in MTN subscriptions and the exit of Azur meant that Airtel 42% 43% 46% 48% market share increased to 49% by YE 2018. The launch of 4G services 39% during December 2018 means that Airtel can continue to compete strongly 32% with MTN in the area of mobile data services. .

51% 50% 50% 51% 41% 38% 44%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MTN Airtel Warid Azur Page 36 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 36 Congo-B – Mobile Market – Overview Stable market with two main international players. Mobile penetration high: 88% at YE 2018.

Congo-B’s mobile market is well penetrated: 4.9 m subscriptions at YE 2018, equivalent to 88% penetration, assuming 5.5 m population. Subscriptions declined in 2018, following exit of Azur from market. Market is now a duopoly between MTN and Airtel. Both operators have launched 4G.

Congo B Mobile Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%) • Congo-B is a two-player mobile market : MTN and Airtel. Azur exited the 97% market during 2018. 91% 93% 87% 92% 95% 88% 8 100% • Penetration was 94% at the end of October 2017 (4.7 m mobile 7 50% subscriptions, assuming population of 5.3 m per UN Population Division 68% 73% 72% 73% 6 57% 63% estimates). This is considerably higher than the Sub-Saharan African 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 0% average (73%). 5 4.3 4.4 4 -50% • MTN is market leader: 2.5m subscriptions at YE 2018. MTN was the first 3 operator in Congo-B to offer 4G services – it launched ‘4G Turbo’ in parts -100% of the capital Brazzaville and in Congo’s second city Pointe Noire late in 2 -150% 2016. 1 • Airtel is the second player. Airtel acquired the subscribers of Warid in 0 -200% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014. Subscriptions increased to 2.3 m by YE 2017 and remained at this COG Subscriptions (m) COG Penetration % SSA av. penetration (%) level during 2018. Airtel announced the launch of 4G services in December 2018. It claims already to offer the broadest 4G coverage, via 250 dedicated 4G sites (83% population coverage). Congo B Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m) 6 • Azur exited the market during 2Q2018. It had struggled to make an 5.1 impact on the market and was in financial difficulty: subscriptions had 4.8 4.8 5 4.7 4.6 4.4 0.2 already declined steadily to 0.2 m at YE2017. 4.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 4 0.2 • Market ARPU is high relative to that of Sub-Saharan African peer 1.1 0.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 markets. However, it has followed a steady declining trend since 2014. 2.2 1.9 3 • MTN reported ARPU of $US 6.7 or XAF 3,789 for 3Q2018 – down from 1.7 1.5 $US 11.2 in 2Q2014. However ARPU had been below $6.0 in each 2 quarter since 3Q2017, so some recovery in falling trend is indicated. 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 1 1.7 1.8 2.0 • Regulator ARPCE reports voice and SMS ARPU on a quarterly basis. Average market ARPU in 2018 was XAF 2,400 ($US 4.4): a decline of - 0 21% YoY. Average MOU also declined during 2018 to 63 minutes per 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 month (-11% YoY). No information is provided on traffic volumes or MTN Airtel Warid Azur ARPU from mobile data or VAS services (including mobile money).

Page Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis 37 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 37 Congo-B – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration (Base Case) Mobile penetration rate of 94% achievable by 2024 – 6.0 m mobile market subscriptions

Congo B Mobile Market Subscriber and Penetration Forecast (m, %) Summary of HTL forecast assumptions: 8 95% • Population: Our year end population estimates (5.3m 92% 93% 93% 94% 100% 7 88% 89% 91% at YE2017) are based on the mid-year values of the UN 6.0 5.6 5.8 Population Division. This is 21% higher than IMF 6 5.4 80% 5.1 5.2 estimate and 11% higher than the estimate of Congo’s 4.8 5.0 5 National Statistics Centre (CNSEE). Following the UN, 60% we project population to increase to 6.4m by YE2024 4 (+2.6% CAGR). 3 40% • Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017, using UN 2 population values, was 95% (5.1m subscriptions), 20% 1 falling to 88% at YE2018 (4.8 m subscriptions). Projected to increase to 6.0 m by 2024 (+3.7% CAGR) 0 0% Commentary on Assumptions: 2017 2018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024 a) Population Mobile Subscribers m Penetration (%) • The UN Population Division appears to view the 2007 census results as incomplete – some areas were undercounted. Congo’s population is heavily Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%) concentrated around Brazzaville and Pointe Noire. 140% vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices) Accurate counting in rural areas is a challenge.

120% R² = 0.0774 b) Mobile Penetration • Congo B’s mobile penetration at YE2017 (88%) shows 100% reasonable correlation with Nominal GDP per capita when benchmarked against peer markets. 80% • IMF forecasts Congo-B Nominal GDP per capita to 60% Congo_B 2017 decline from 2020, and to achieve only +0.4% CAGR Congo_B 2020 growth from $US 2,005 in 2016 to $US 2,043 in 2023 . 40% • Mobile penetration in the 90-100% range has already Congo_B 2023 been achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with 20%

Other HTA markets 2017 similar (or lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably: Mobile Penetration YE 2017 (ITU, UN) (ITU, 2017 YE Penetration Mobile 0% • Senegal: 2017 Penetration 98%, 2017 GDP per 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Capita $US 1,331 Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [Source: IMF WEO October 2018] Page Source: Regulator, IMF WEO, ITU, Hardiman Model 38 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 38 Congo-B – Mobile Market – 3G and Mobile Broadband MBB adoption within coverage area is high – however, coverage still low: 17% 3G, 5% 4G.

MBB penetration in Congo-B is increasing steadily. ITU reported 18% at YE 2018. GSMA reported that 44% of mobile subscriptions were MBB-enabled at YE 2018 – a similar level to Tanzania. The main restraint on MBB adoption is low population coverage of both 3G and especially 4G. The number of active data users reported by MTN is around half of the total number of smartphone users. Users cannot avail of full data functionality of handsets.

MBB (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections MBB (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) R² = 0.5593 70% Algeria Ghana 60% 100% South Africa South Africa 50% Rwanda Nigeria Tunisia Angola 80% Ghana Egypt Algeria Congo B 40% Tanzania Sierra Leone Kenya 60% Tunisia Congo B 30% Sierra Leone Kenya Uganda Zambia DRC 40% Rwanda 20% Gambia Tanzania Nigeria Burkina Faso Gambia 20% Uganda Zambia Angola Cameroon 10% Burkina Faso Niger R² = 0.4073 DRC Cameroon 0% 0% Niger 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

Mobile Broadband Adoption as % of MBB Coverage at YE 2017 Sources: ITU January 2019 edition, MTN, Hardiman analysis 107% 104% 103% 110% 101% Based on MBB penetration of 17% and 3G coverage 90% 85% 90% of 17%. 4G coverage at YE 2017 was 5%. 71% 65% 65% 70% 53% 52% 41% 50% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35% 27% 24% 21% 30% 19% 18% 17%

10%

-10%

Source: GSMA, HardimanPage 39 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 39 Ghana – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary Following Airtel-Tigo merger Ghana mobile market has three major players

Item MTN Vodafone Airtel-Tigo Glo Mobile Licence Date 1996 2000 1994 (Tigo), 1997 (Airtel) 2008

Number of PoS YE2018 3,168 1,730 1,617 1,100 Subscriptions (m) 17.7m 9.8m 10.3m 0.7m YE2018E Market Share (%) 46% 25% 27% 2% YE2018E

Subscribers / PoS 5,587 5,665 6,364 672

ARPU 2018 $US 3.7 NA NA NA

Revenue Share >50% >22% >27% >1%

Market leader with high Attempting to match MTN in Fewer subs / PoS than Launched in 2012 with value customer base. terms of coverage. MTN, but still suffering from aggressive marketing and IPO for 35% of MTN Ghana Immediate focus is on congestion. pricing strategy. launch and roll-out of 4G shares was completed 50:50 JV between Bharti Some initial success services, planned for during September 2018 - Airtel and Tigo, branded achieved (1.6m subscribers 1H2019. $US 237 m raised. Airtel-Tigo. during first year). In 2010 Vodafone Network merger still in However, subscriber base concluded a ten-year progress. To be completed reduced by nearly 50% Operation and Maintenance by end 2019. during 2016 and has (O&M) agreement with remained flat at this low Comment Eaton Towers for up to 750 level. towers. It is not yet clear if or under what terms this agreement will be renewed upon expiry in 2020.

Page 40 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 40 Ghana – Mobile Market – Operators Three operators – MTN, Vodafone and the Airtel-Tigo JV – share 98% of all active SIMs.

MTN is clear market leader: it has used first-mover advantage in 4G to maintain market share at 46%. MTN continues to reinforce leadership position by deploying a 4-play strategy. Vodafone had benefited from former incumbent status but is now the third largest MNO: launch of 4G planned for 2Q2019. A strong challenge is being provided by the new Airtel-Tigo entity, after merger of Bharti Airtel and Millicom Tigo’s Ghanaian operations at YE 2017. Subscriber Market Share Mobile Market Characteristics

Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares at YE2018E (%) 2% • During the last five years the relative market shares of the four main players have remained relatively stable. However, Airtel and Tigo merged 27% operations at the end of 2017, meaning that Ghana is effectively a three- player market. 46% • MTN is market leader with a 46% share of subscriptions at YE2018E. Subscriber growth has resumed following the removal of inactive subscribers in 1Q2017. MTN’s LTE service has been live in all 10 regional capitals since June 2016. MTN is also developing a 4-play offering: fibre 25% broadband has already been launched in selected commercial and residential districts; IPTV and fixed telephony to be added. MTN Vodafone AirtelTigo Glo Mobile • MTN Group is in the process of divesting 35% of MTN Ghana to Ghanaian investors. This was a condition of the award to MTN of 2x10MHz of Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares (%) [MNOs, NCA, Hardiman Analysis] 800Mhz spectrum for LTE services. 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% • Airtel and Tigo merged late in 2017. The NCA reported that Airtel-Tigo had 6% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 90% 10.3m subscriptions at YE2018: 28% market share, +0.5 m net adds YoY 28% 27% 80% 14% 14% 14% 14% • Glo Mobile market share declined sharply in 2016 from 1.4m subscribers 70% 14% at YE2015 (3.9% market share) to 0.7m at YE2016 (1.8%). Glo’s weak 60% 22% 21% 22% 23% 22% 26% 25% 50% market position has persisted. At YE2018 NCA reports that Glo had only 40% 0.7m subscriptions (2% market share). 30% 50% • 6th MNO Expresso ceased operations during 2018. At YE2017 it already 20% 46% 46% 46% 46% 44% 46% 10% had only 23k subscribers (0.06% market share). 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E MTN Vodafone Tigo Airtel AirtelTigo Glo Mobile Expresso Page 41 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 41 Ghana – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband Mobile broadband adoption growing strongly, but scope exists for further improvement in coverage

MNOs continue to grow data usage among subscriber base – NCA reports that 59% of mobile market subscriptions were active data users at end 3Q2018. MBB penetration was 82% at YE 2017 – one of the highest penetration levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Ghana Active Data Users (m), and as Share of Total Market MBB Penetration (% Population) at YE 2017 Mobile Subscriptions (%) Source: ITU, Hardiman analysis 45,000 70% Gabon 84% 59% 40.0 Ghana 38.3 37.4 59% 82% 40,000 60% South Africa 70% 52% 35.0 52% 51% 35,000 30.4 Botswana 67% 50% 30,000 28.0 Mauritius 59% 25.6 Namibia 56% 22.1 23.5 40% 25,000 Côte d'Ivoire 54% 18.0 19.6 20,000 37% 15.8 30% Togo 52% 33% Lesotho 49% 15,000 10.3 8.3 20% Zambia 45% 10,000 Zimbabwe 41% 5,000 10% Rwanda 35% Kenya 34% 0 0% Tanzania 33% YE 2012 YE 2013 YE 2014 YE 2015 YE 2016 3Q2017 3Q2018 Mali 31% Burkina Faso 29% Total mobile subs (m) Mobile data users (m) Data users as % total Gambia 27% Senegal 27% SSA Average 26% Mozambique 26% • Voice-only subscription is slowing: voice and traditional messaging Sierra Leone 26% Malawi 26% services are no longer the key driver of demand. Growth in Ghana’s mobile Guinea 25% sector is now being driven mainly by adoption of mobile data services. Uganda 23% Chad 23% • The Ghanaian regulator, NCA, reports that the number of mobile data Nigeria 20% Cameroon 18% subscriptions increased from 8.3m at YE2012 to 23.5m at end 3Q2018 Congo B 17% (+23% 5-year CAGR). Most of the growth is in 4G (MTN). DRC 16% Angola 15% • Thus growth in the number of mobile data users is higher than the growth Ethiopia 14% Eswatini 13% of mobile phone subscriptions (+11% CAGR). Madagascar 13% Burundi 13% • The share of mobile subscribers which are data users has increased from Benin 12% 33% in 2012 to 59% at end 3Q2018. We expect this share to increase Liberia 12% further as old handsets are replaced by smartphones, as MNOs improve Guinea-Bissau 9% CAR 5% mobile broadband coverage, and when Vodafone and Airtel-Tigo obtain 4G Niger 4% licences and roll-out own 4G services. South Sudan 4%

Sources: NCA, ITU, Hardiman AnalysisPage 42 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 42 Ghana – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration Mobile penetration rate to stabilise at 131% by 2024 – 44 m mobile market subscriptions

Ghana Mobile Market Subscription and Penetration Forecast (m, %) Summary of HTL forecast assumptions: [NCA, UN, Hardiman Analysis] • Population at YE2017 was 29.1m. Projected to increase to 33.0m by YE2023 and 33.m by YE2024 60 (+2.1% CAGR). [Source: UN Population Division]. 134% 129% 132% 133% 134% 133% 132% 131% 121% 140% 50 • Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017 was 121% 43.5 44.0 120% 41.4 42.4 43.0 (35.2m subscriptions). Decline during 2017 was du 38.3 38.5 40.1 40 35.2 100% mainly to the downward restatement of active 80% subscriber numbers by MTN. Penetration is projected 30 to recover, however, to above 130% by 2019 and to 60% 20 stabilise around 131% by 2024 (44.0m subscriptions: 40% +3.2% CAGR 2017-24) 10 20% Commentary on Assumptions: 0 0% a) Population 2016 2017 2018E 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024 • All sources are in broad agreement about Tanzania’s Mobile Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%) current population and growth rate. • We assume continued population growth at +2.1% CAGR to 2023 in line with the forecasts of the UN Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%) Population Division. vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices) b) Mobile Penetration 140% • Ghana mobile penetration at YE2017 (121%) was R² = 0.072 120% higher than that of other Sub-Saharan African markets with similar levels of Nominal GDP per capita. 100% • The IMF forecasts Ghana Nominal GDP per capita to grow strongly from $US 1,663 in 2017 to $US 2,275 in 80% Ghana 2017 2023 (+5.4% CAGR) 60% Ghana 2020 • Mobile penetration above 120% has already been achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with similar (or 40%

Ghana 2023 lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably: Mobile Penetration (World Bank) (World Penetration Mobile 20% Other HTA markets 2017 • Cote d’Ivoire: 2017 Penetration 129%, 2017 GDP per capita $US 1,621. 0% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 • Gambia: 2017 Penetration 137%, 2017 GDP per Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO October 2018] capita $US 705. Page Source: NCA, ITU, UN, MNO, Hardiman Model 43 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 43 Ghana – Mobile Market – 3G and Mobile Broadband MBB adoption in Ghana is among highest in Sub-Saharan Africa

MBB take-up in Ghana is high relative to other Sub-Saharan African markets. MBB-enabled subscriptions (3G/4G) represented 62% of total Ghana mobile market subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 78% population penetration. This correlates with the 82% MBB penetration and 80% MBB coverage values reported by the ITU for YE 2017. MNOs are investing heavily in mobile broadband. 4G population coverage already exceeds 35%.

MBB-enabled (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections MBB-enabled (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) R² = 0.5593 70% Algeria Ghana 60% 100% South Africa South Africa 50% Rwanda Nigeria Tunisia 80% Egypt Angola Ghana Algeria Kenya Congo B 40% Tanzania Tunisia Sierra Leone 60% 30% Sierra Leone Kenya Uganda Zambia Congo B 40% Rwanda Nigeria DRC 20% Gambia Tanzania Burkina Faso Gambia 20% Uganda Zambia Angola Cameroon 10% Burkina Faso Niger R² = 0.4073 DRC Cameroon 0% 0% Niger 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

Based on MBB penetration of 82% and 3G coverage of 80%. 4G coverage at YE 2017 was 35%. Mobile Broadband Adoption as % of MBB Coverage at YE 2017 Sources: ITU January 2019 edition, MTN, Hardiman analysis 107% 104% 110% 103% 101% 90% 85% 90% 71% 65% 65% 70% 53% 52% 41% 50% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35% 27% 24% 30% 21% 19% 18% 17%

10%

-10%

Source: GSMA ITU,UN, We Are Social HardimanPage 44 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 44 South Africa – Mobile Market – Operators Four established MNOs – Vodacom, MTN, Cell C, Telkom SA –share 97% of all active SIMs.

Vodacom is clear market leader, with a subscriber market share of 44% at YE 2018. MTN is a strong 2nd throughout the country. The 2 smaller operators, Cell C and Telkom SA make up only 25% of the market but have been increasing their market share consistently over past 4 years. 3G technologies cover 98% of the population of South Africa.

Subscriber Market Share Mobile Market Characteristics

South Africa Subscriber Market Share YE 2018

Telkom SA Other 8% 2%

• During the last five years the relative market shares of the four main players have remained relatively stable: Cell C Vodacom • Vodacom is market leader with a 43% share of subscriptions at YE 2018. 17% 43% Vodacom is perceived to have the highest quality offering, and is first choice for business users. Vodacom offers the broadest and deepest MTN coverage of all South Africa’s MNOs across all technology types: GSM 2G, 30% 3G UMTS, 4G LTE. • MTN is a strong 2nd position throughout the country, but has recently lost market share to smaller operators Cell C and Telkom SA. MTN’s network South Africa Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) coverage is similar to that of Vodacom 3% 3% 2% 100% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% • Cell C Since 2015 Cell C has achieved consistent subscriber and market 90% 8% 15% 16% share growth. We estimate that subscriber market share at YE 2018 was 18% 23% 17% 17% 80% 17% 17%. This does not include Cell C’s significant MVNO base – industry 70% sources report over 2m active MVNO SIMs. 37% 60% 35% 37% 35% 31% 30% 34% 50% • Telkom SA is smallest significant operator. Telkom has reported 9.7m 40% mobile subscribers at the end of March 2019 and had an estimated market 30% share of 8% at year end 2018. 44% 20% 43% 42% 38% 41% 41% 43% 10% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 45 Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 45 South Africa – Tower Market Summary Both Helios Towers and American Tower are active in South Africa

• South Africa has the largest tower market in Sub Saharan Africa with an estimated 28,977 towers. • The majority of the towers, 18,200 of the 28,581 are owned by the MNOs. Towers By Owner Other Atlas Towers Independent • The independent towerco space is vibrant. There are a number of 3% SA Towers TowerCo Sentech 1% 1% small independent towercos, including Atlas Towers and Eagle 1% Cell C Towers, building and operating towers for the MNOs and developing 2% small cell solutions. , 2608, 9% • Both American Tower and Helios Towers are active in South Africa. , 10500, 36% • American Tower has 2,608 active towers in South Africa. • In January 2019 Helios Towers acquired a controlling interest in SA 23% Towers • Eaton Towers sold its 300 towers in South Africa to American

24% Tower in 2016 • American Tower entered the market by acquiring Cell C’s portfolio of towers • Gyro Group was created when Corporate Real Estate Services, Telkom’s internal property division, was separated from the Telkom Group. • Independent towercos own and operate an estimated 15% of towers

Page Source: TowerXchange, Hardiman Analysis 46 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 46 South Africa – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration Forecast Mobile penetration rate to remain exceptionally high, reflecting multi-SIM use: 180% in 2024

Mobile Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%) (Hardiman Analysis) Summary of HTL forecast assumptions: 200% • Population at YE2017 was 57.1m Projected to 140 178% 179% 181% 182% 182% 181% 180% 166% 180% increase to 61.5m by YE2024 (+1.1% CAGR). [Source: 111.0 120 106.7 108.3 109.6 110.3 UN Population Division]. 102.6 104.7 160% 94.8 100 140% • Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2018 was 178% 120% (103 m subscriptions). Telkom’s subscriber growth has 80 been maintained. It added a further 1.1m subscribers in 100% 60 Q1 2019. This run rate indicates that the year end 80% forecast of 179% mobile penetration may be achieved. 40 60% • We expect mobile subscriptions to increase to 111m 40% 20 subscriptions by 2024 (+1.3% CAGR) – equivalent to 20% 180% population penetration 0 0% 2017 2018 2019F2019 2020F2020 2021F2021 2022F2022 2023F2023 2024F2024 Commentary on Assumptions:

Mobile Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%) a) Population • We assume population growth in line with UN forecasts: +1.1% CAGR during the period 2017 to Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets at YE 2017 (%) 2024. vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices) 200% b) Mobile Penetration 180% • South Africa mobile penetration at YE2018 (178%) was 160% R² = 0.1749 already exceptionally high in relation to nominal GDP 140% per capita. There are no true peer markets on the South African continent. Thus benchmarking is difficult. 120% • IMF forecasts that South Africa Nominal GDP per 100% South Africa 2017 capita will grow from $US 6,180 in 2017 to $US 7,346 in 80% 2023 (+2.9% CAGR). South Africa 2020 60% • We project that this increase in GDP per capita will be South Africa 2023 40% sufficient to support additional market SIM net adds of around 1m per annum from 2019 to 2024. Mobile 20%

Mobile Penetration (World Bank) (World Penetration Mobile penetration is likely to stabilise around 180%. This 0% assumes that multi-SIM ownership and use will 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 continue to be a feature of the market. GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF] Page Source: Regulator, ITU, UN, World Bank, Hardiman Model 47 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 47 South Africa – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband Mobile broadband adoption growing strongly.

40m mobile broadband users at YE 2017 – 42% of total mobile subscriptions, equivalent to 70% MBB penetration of population. This may be a reasonable proxy for unique mobile subscriptions. MBB coverage in South Africa is high, at 99% of population – versus SSA average of around 60%.

South Africa Mobile Broadband Subscriptions (m) and MBB MBB Penetration (% Population) at YE 2017 Penetration (%) [Sources: ITU, Hardiman analysis] Source: ITU, Hardiman analysis Gabon 84% 50 70% 80% Ghana 82% 70% South Africa 70% 40 Botswana 67% 60% 51% 39.9 Mauritius 59% Namibia 30 40% 50% 56% 42% Côte d'Ivoire 54% 28.5 40% Togo 52% 20 Lesotho 22.4 32% 30% 49% 36% Zambia 45% 27% 31% 20% 10 Zimbabwe 41% 10% Rwanda 35% 25% Kenya 34% 0 0% Tanzania 33% 2015 2016 2017 Mali 31% MBB connections (m) RSA MBB as % mobile subs Burkina Faso 29% Gambia 27% RSA MBB penetration SSA MBB as % mobile subs Senegal 27% SSA Average 26% Mozambique 26% Sierra Leone 26% • Mobile broadband users grew from 29m at YE 2016 to 40m at YE 2017: Malawi 26% +40% YoY. Mobile accounts for over 95% of all broadband connections in Guinea 25% Uganda 23% South Africa. Chad 23% Nigeria 20% • Continued roll out of 3G networks and launch of 4G services will drive Cameroon 18% further take-up of mobile broadband services. Congo B 17% DRC 16% • The ITU reports that MBB coverage in RSA is nearly complete: 3G – Angola 15% Ethiopia 14% 99%; 4G – 78% at YE 2017 Eswatini 13% Madagascar 13% • However, affordability and access to smartphones remain key issues: Burundi 13% Benin 12% • The increased availability of cheap smartphones in South Africa will act Liberia 12% as a stimulus to mobile broadband uptake, notably among youth - Guinea-Bissau 9% CAR 5% although South Africa’s exceptionally high rate of youth unemployment Niger 4% is to be noted. South Sudan 4%

Page Source: ITU, NRAs, Hardiman Analysis 48 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 48 South Africa – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband (3G and 4G) Mobile Broadband demand well established – nearly two thirds of subscriptions actively use MBB

MBB take-up rate in South Africa is among the strongest in the region. MBB-enabled subscriptions (3G/4G) represented 62% of total mobile market subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 100% population penetration. Focus now is on further extension of 4G coverage. 78% of population was already covered by 4G at YE2017 – one of the highest rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

MBB (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections MBB (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018 (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) (IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social) R² = 0.5593 70% Algeria Ghana 60% 100% South Africa South Africa 50% Rwanda Nigeria Tunisia 80% Angola Ghana Egypt Algeria Kenya Congo B 40% Tanzania Sierra Leone 60% Tunisia 30% Sierra Leone Kenya Uganda Zambia Congo B 40% Rwanda Nigeria DRC 20% Gambia Tanzania Burkina Faso Gambia 20% Uganda Zambia Angola Cameroon 10% Burkina Faso Niger R² = 0.4073 DRC Cameroon 0% 0% Niger 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

Mobile Broadband Adoption as % of MBB Coverage at YE 2017 Sources: ITU January 2019 edition, MTN, Hardiman analysis 107% 104% 103% 110% 101% Based on MBB penetration of 70% and 3G coverage of 90% 85% 90% 99%. 4G population coverage at YE 2017 was 78%. 71% 65% 65% 70% 53% 52% 41% 50% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35% 27% 24% 21% 30% 19% 18% 17%

10%

-10%

Sources: ITU, We Are Social, Hardiman Analysis Page 49 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 49 I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 25

0.36 VII Glossary Page 50

Page 50 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 50 Glossary

Glossary 3G 3rd Generation Mobile (UMTS) MFS Mobile Financial Services 4G 4th Generation Mobile (LTE) MNO Mobile Network Operator 4-Play Bundle of 4 products MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator Autorité de Régulation de la Poste et des ARPTC NCA National Communications Authority Télécommunications du Congo ARPU Average Revenue Per User NRA National Regulatory Authority B2S Build To Suit O&M Operations and Maintenance DSE Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange PoS Point of Service GB Giga Byte SIM Subscriber Identity Module HT Helios Towers SSA Sub Saharan Africa IPTV Internet Protocol Television TCRA Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority LTE Long Term Evolution (4G) UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications Service Mbit/s Mega bits per second

Page 51 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 51 PoS Definition

2G/3G2G/3G Sector Sector Antennae Antennae Microwave with associated RRUs Antennae for with associated RRUs Backhaul

Brackets for expansion

MNO 1 2G TRX 1

MNO 2 3G TRX N 4G Tower MNO 3

(1) TRX is a physical transmitter / receiver unit Operator PoS Network PoS TRX1 PoS

• A single tower can host multiple Operator tenants. Each Operator tenant can be considered an Operator PoS – a tenancy on a HT site • A single Operator tenant can have equipment for multiple networks 2G, 3G and 4Gdeployed under a single rental agreement. Each network served can be considered to be a Network PoS. HT is technology agnostic, it sells tower capacity to the Operator. It does not charge based on the technology deployed. • In the HT markets the Operators generally colocate 3G and 4G equipment on 2G sites. • When an Operator installs 3G equipment on a 2G site this is an additional Network PoS. This may generate additional income for the TowerCo as additional tower capacity will be required. There is no increase in Operator PoS (tenancy). • In this report the term PoS refers to Operator PoS Page 52 HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 52