Unexpected Turbulence for the Alliance
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US-JAPAN RELATIONS UNEXPECTED TURBULENCE FOR THE ALLIANCE SHEILA A. SMITH, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS CHARLES T. MCCLEAN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY Several unexpected events during the summer of 2020 confounded US-Japan ties. The COVID-19 pandemic continued to challenge governments in Tokyo and Washington, as the number of infected grew. The scale of the pandemic’s impact was far greater in the United States, but Japan’s metropolitan centers faced an uptick in cases, as did less populated regions. The Japanese and US governments marked the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, yet difficulties in defense cooperation rattled relations. A bigger surprise to the US-Japan relationship came on Aug. 28 when Prime Minister Abe Shinzo announced he would resign. Abe’s exit raises the question of whether his successor can manage the US-Japan relationship with the same skill. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Vol. 22, No. 2, September 2020. Preferred citation: Sheila A. Smith and Charles T. McClean, “US-Japan Relations: Unexpected Turbulence for the Alliance,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp 13-22. US- JAPAN RELATIONS | SEPTEMBER 2020 15 The impending US presidential election Japan’s About Face on AEGIS Ashore increasingly loomed large. The Democratic and Republican parties convened their conventions, Defense Minister Kono Taro announced on June with the first online convention showcased by 15 that Japan would suspend deployment of the the Democrats on Aug. 17. President Trump held Aegis Ashore, a sophisticated land-based his convention at the White House on Aug. 24, missile defense system. At a press conference on drawing criticism from his opponents, and June 25, Kono then announced that the National while his supporters attended in person, it was Security Council had decided to officially cancel a scaled-back version of what had initially been the deployment in Akita and Yamaguchi planned. By the end of the summer, polling still prefectures. Trouble in Akita began in June 2019 showed former Vice President Joe Biden, the when Ministry of Defense officials responsible Democratic nominee, had the lead. The for studying how and where the missile defense president’s approval rating remained low due system would be located in the prefecture largely to his handling of the coronavirus, with incurred the wrath of local residents by 58% of Americans saying they disapproved of misrepresenting the trajectory of GSDF missiles the way Trump has responded to the pandemic that would shoot down incoming missiles. in a CNN poll (Aug. 12-15). On June 23, the Japanese and US governments marked the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. Yet difficulties in defense cooperation rattled relations. The first was the decision by Japan’s Minister of Defense Taro Kono on June 15 to cancel the deployment of the Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system. The decision caught many by surprise and resulted in a broader decision to redraft Japan’s National Security Strategy (NSS) and to review the National Defense Program Guidelines adopted in December 2018. Tensions also grew in base communities, particularly in Figure 1 Defence Minister Kono Taro announced that Japan Okinawa, over increasing cases of COVID-19 would suspend plans for Aegis Ashore. Photo: SCMP infections within the US military stationed in On top of this local concern, the early promise of Japan. Nonetheless, the United States and Japan the Aegis Ashore system was belied by the continued to work closely on developing their growing technical capabilities of North Korea, Indo-Pacific cooperation. Chinese behavior especially the increased maneuverability of its demonstrated Beijing’s assertion of its control missiles. Furthermore, consultations with the over the South China Sea. Moreover, Beijing’s United States suggested it would take more time decision on June 30 to impose the National than originally planned to adapt the system to Security Law on Hong Kong created ripple Japan’s demands. Ultimately with the prime effects across the region as demonstrators and minister’s approval, Kono decided that the others critical of government were detained and estimated $4.1 billion cost of this new BMD arrested. system, designed to augment the sea-based Aegis system operated by the Maritime Self- A bigger surprise to the US-Japan relationship Defense Force, was too great given its came on Aug. 28 when Prime Minister Abe limitations in meeting Japan’s growing defense Shinzo announced he would resign. Abe’s needs. Kono noted that Japan had already spent relationship with Trump was widely seen as the $1.02 billion on development, which he hoped reason Japan managed to avoid the growing could be repurposed toward other objectives. strain between the US and its allies. In a tweet, Other weapons systems, such as the purchase of Trump said that Abe would “soon be recognized Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft, as the greatest Prime Minister in the history of also came under review. Japan, whose relationship with the USA is the best it has ever been.” Abe’s exit, however, But Kono did not stop at canceling this weapons raises the question of whether his successor can system. After consultations with the LDP’s manage the US-Japan relationship with the defense experts, he recommended larger same skill. 14 SEPTEMBER 2020 | US- JAPAN RELATIONS changes to Japan’s defense policy. The Abe Consultations on Japan’s purchase of 105 F-35 Cabinet announced it would rewrite Japan’s joint strike fighters moved forward, with US National Security Strategy, which was adopted approval issued on July 9. Notable too was in 2013 during the first year of the Abe’s return deepening US-Japan cooperation in space. On to the kantei. With the marked improvement in the civilian side, NASA Administrator Jim North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities, Bridenstine and Minister of Education, Culture, the Cabinet decided it was also time to re- Sports, Science and Technology Hagiuda Koichi evaluate Japan’s National Defense Program signed the Joint Exploration Declaration of Guidelines and Mid-Term Defense Program, Intent for cooperation on space exploration. both adopted in 2018. Some in the LDP Equally important, military cooperation in suggested the time had come to move beyond space, one of Abe’s priorities, continued to move sole reliance on missile defenses and to ahead. The US Chief of Space Operations, Gen. seriously consider acquisition of an offensive John Raymond, visited Tokyo in late August, and strike option, an idea that had been proposed in met Abe in addition to civilian and uniformed 2017 by the LDP’s Research Commission on leaders at the Ministry of Defense. Security. The Abe Cabinet ordered a full review of Japan’s military planning to be completed by The influence of Abe on Japan’s defense the end of 2020. On Sept. 5, Abe further said that preparedness and on the US-Japan alliance he would publish a new statement outlining his cannot be overstated. Just ahead for Tokyo and strategy on ballistic missile defense before his Washington are the potentially difficult planned resignation on Sept. 16. negotiations over Host Nation Support. Trump’s insistence that US allies do not do enough for US Forces in Japan faced growing Japanese their own defense has already had considerable criticism of their management of the impact on NATO as well as the US-ROK alliance. coronavirus. By May 25, Japan had lifted its state The US election will undoubtedly frame how of emergency as COVID-19 seemed to be Washington responds to Japan’s efforts to contained. However, US Forces Japan had its realign and strengthen the SDF’s force posture. own public health emergency status. Initially declared on April 6 for US bases in the Kanto China Raises the Stakes for the Alliance area, the public health emergency was expanded to all US military installations in Japan on April Over the summer, the United States and Japan 15 and then repeatedly extended over the increased their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. summer. On July 11, Okinawa Governor Denny Efforts to build a coalition of like-minded Tamaki spoke out against the large number of maritime powers to ensure freedom of COVID-19 cases on US bases in his prefecture. navigation across the region stepped up as While the US military said both Futenma and Chinese military activities also grew. In July, the Camp Hansen had been placed on lockdown, MSDF and US Navy joined their counterparts Tamaki expressed “grave doubts” over whether from Australia for a trilateral exercise in the the military had taken adequate steps to prevent Philippine Sea. Capt. Sakano Yusuke, US Marines from spreading COVID-19 off base. commander of the MSDF’s Escort Division 4, The number of confirmed cases among US emphasized that “strengthening cooperation military personnel rose from 45 on July 11 to 62 with the US Navy and Royal Australian Navy is by July 12, 94 by July 13, and 201 by July 24. After vitally important for Japan, and also contributes the Japanese government urged them to to a free and open Indo-Pacific in the region.” conform to its protocols on quarantine for those Likewise, Capt. Russ Caldwell, commanding arriving in Japan, US Forces Japan announced on officer of the USS Antietam, noted that the July 24 that all arriving personnel must undergo “United States is fortunate to routinely operate mandatory testing before being released from alongside its allies across the Indo-Pacific, [as] two weeks quarantine. Five days later, a joint coordinated operations like these reinforce our press statement was issued describing how the mutual commitments to international maritime Japanese government and US Force Japan would norms and promoting regional stability.” cooperate on COVID-19 efforts.