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Home , 1957 Preakness Stakes, 1978 Preakness Stakes, 1990 Preakness Stakes, 1996 Preakness Stakes, 2006 Preakness Stakes, 2010 Preakness Stakes

MAY 21, 2016 • PIMLICO

American Pharoah and (on rail) splash home victoriously in the 2015

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Welcome to Xpressbet’s Preakness Wager Guide!

Congratulations to the connections of 2016 Derby winner —owners Zillah and Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill, his crew and jockey . The , first leg of the Triple Crown, is in the books and Nyquist is headed to Pimlico for the in an attempt to move one step closer to becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner in history.

It’s probably prudent to leave actual Preakness handicapping to the experts and Xpressbet’s free Preakness Wager Guide has a group of veterans who know their way around the track. We’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Additionally, just about everything you’ll need to handicap the race like a pro is in the guide. You’ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.

Xpressbet covers the race from top to bottom in the guide and also on the web site, including daily guide updates beginning Tuesday, May 17 and a revised guide online Friday, May 20.

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The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2016 Preakness Stakes and we look for- ward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future.

Sincerely, Ron Luniewski President Xpressbet LANI (30/1) 6 Owner: Koji Maeda Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yutaka Take

COLLECTED (10/1) 7 Owner: Speedway , LLC Trainer: Jockey:

CHERRY WINE (20/1) LAOBAN (30/1) 1 Owner: William Pacella & 8 Owner: Southern Equine Stable, Frank L. Jones Jr. LLC & McCormick Racing, LLC Trainer: Trainer: Eric Guillot Jockey: Jockey:

UNCLE LINO (20/1) ABIDING STAR (30/1) 2 Owner: Tom Mansor, Purple 9 Owner: Stonehedge, LLC Shamrock Racing & Gary Sherlock Trainer: Ned Allard Trainer: Gary Sherlock Jockey: J.D. Acosta Jockey: Fernando Perez

NYQUIST (3/5) FELLOWSHIP (30/1) 3 Owner: Reddam Racing, LLC 10 Owner: Jacks or Better Farm, Inc. Trainer: Doug O’Neill Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Jockey:

AWESOME SPEED (30/1) STRADIVARI (8/1) 4 Owner: Colts Neck , LLC 11 Owner: Tabor, Smith, Trainer: Alan Goldberg Magnier & Gunther Jockey: Jevian Toledo Trainer: Jockey: John Velazquez

EXAGGERATOR (3/1) 5 Owner: Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners, et al Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey:

Watch Us on YouTube Watch Us on YouTube Watch Us on YouTube Preakness Wagering Facts by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events. Win-Place-Show Odds Superfecta Payoffs (Last 15 years, Odds to $1) (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $3,929.78 Win Odds High: $11,151.20 Average: 4.29 (--Hemingway’s Key- High: 15.40 (, 2013) , 2006) Low: .20 (, 2008) Low: $173.80 Notable: Preakness winner has been 3-1 or less in (-Ride On -Social Inclusion- 12 of the last 15 years. General a Rod, 2014) Place Odds Notable: Only 4 times in the bet’s 18-year history has the Average: 15.16 superfecta returned a 5-digit payoff. High: 45.70 (, 2002) Highest-Priced Superfecta Finishers Low: 1.30 (, 2007) (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Notable: 4 times in the last 15 years the runner-up Odds Horse Year Fin. has been 20-1 or more. 45.70 Magic Weisner 2002 2nd Show Odds 39.90 2008 2nd Average: 10.89 29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3rd High: 29.40 (Hemingway’s Key, 2006) 28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd Low: 2.80 (, 2001) 25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th Notable: No show horse under 4-1 odds since 2001. 25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th

Exacta Payoffs Lowest-Priced Favorites (Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs) (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Average: $116.19 Odds Horse Year Fin. High: $327.00 (-Magic Weisner, 2002) .20 Big Brown 2008 1st Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014) .50 California Chrome 2014 1st Notable: Last year’s exacta paid $114.40 despite heavily- .50 2006 dnf favored winning. .70 2004 1st .70 2013 4th Trifecta Payoffs .90 American Pharoah 2015 1st (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) 1.30 Street Sense 2007 2nd Average: $683.50 1.80 2009 1st High: $3,912.80 1.90 2003 1st (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key, 2006) 1.90 2010 8th Low: $35.40 (I’ll Have Another--Creative Cause, 2012) Notable: Once since 2012 the trifecta paid 300-1 or more.

Expert Selection Grid Expert Jeremy Plonk Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (Horseplayernow.com) (XBTV) (Santa Anita) (Daily Racing Form) (SiriusXM Radio) First Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Second Cherry Wine Stradivari Exaggerator Fellowship Exaggerator Third Stradivari Exaggerator Exaggerator Collected Exaggerator Cherry Wine Fourth Collected Stradivari Cherry Wine Stradivari Stradivari Fellowship $125 SIGN UP BONUS

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Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. Meet The 2016 Preakness Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com

Nyquist Collected The winner of the 142nd Kentucky Derby extended his ‘New shooters’—horses that did not compete in the unbeaten record to eight races by outrunning 19 foes Kentucky Derby--always are an interesting aspect of on the First Saturday in May. Nyquist stalked a hot early handicapping the Preakness Stakes. This year, one of those Derby pace, took the lead in the stretch, and never is Stakes winner Collected, from the powerful really was threatened by the closing bid of runner-up Bob Baffert stable. Collected won the Lexington Stakes EXAGGERATOR. Can Nyquist extend his unblemished at last out to improve his record to four wins record through the Preakness and on in six starts. The dual Grade 3 stakes to the Belmont? Why not? He’s fast, winner by City Zip has speed and, tractable, brave and very talented. PREAKNESS WINNERS according to clocker reports, worked He’s got a fantastic demeanor and AS HORSE OF THE YEAR very well at during experienced connections that have Year Horse Derby week. Trainer Bob Baffert has been there before with I’ll Have an outstanding Preakness record 2015 . . .AMERICAN PHAROAH Another in 2012, a bid for Triple Crown that includes six wins: immortality that ended just short of 2014 . . .CALIFORNIA CHROME (1997), (1998), the Belmont starting gate. Nyquist 2009 . . .RACHEL ALEXANDRA (2001), War Emblem (2002), Lookin At will be an overwhelming favorite 2007 . . .CURLIN Lucky (2010) and American Pharoah in and by extension, the (2015)! What Baffert hasn’t done is win 2001 . . .POINT GIVEN choice to have a chance to deliver the Preakness with a horse that did fans back-to-back Triple Crowns. 1999 . . . not compete in the Kentucky Derby. 1989 . . . Collected’s connections would like to Exaggerator 1978 . . . see him join a select group of sophs It’s understandable if Exaggerator 1977 . . . that have turned that trick: is beginning to develop a complex. (2000), Bernardini (2006) and the 1973 . . . He’s been defeated four times by Rachel Alexandra (2009). NYQUIST—and that’s as many times 1967 . . . as they’ve met. Exaggerator isn’t 1957 . . . RULER Stradivari accustomed to losing to anyone else. 1955 . . . Following a pair of runaway wins, In fact, in 10 starts he’s only lost twice 1950 . . . Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to a winning foe other than NYQUIST. is compelled to challenge Stradivari 1949 . . . If Exaggerator is a bit ‘NYQUIST- to step up in class to meet Grade 1 shy,’ his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, 1948 . . . Preakness foes. Horseplayers will need must be downright terrified of the 1946 . . . to decide if the is talented enough Kentucky Derby winner. He has 1943 . . . to strut his stuff with the big boys saddled a horse to finish second to 1941 . . . off two facile victories—a maiden by NYQUIST in an absolutely amazing more than 11 lengths at Gulfstream six out of eight races, including five 1939 . . . and a first-level allowance by 14-plus Grade 1s! Desormeaux-trained Swipe 1937 . . . lengths at Keeneland. His running was second to NYQUIST four times style ought to put him in contention and Exaggerator has completed the from the start, but he’s not a run- NYQUIST-over-all exacta twice. With those trends in place off type, so he should be able to relax off any early duel it figures that the Preakness exacta can’t possibly come that might develop. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro, so distance back any way other than NYQUIST over Exaggerator—just shouldn’t be an issue. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, like the Kentucky Derby. Will Exaggerator find an extra who has been aboard for all three of the colt’s starts, is gear in the Preakness Stakes and finally cure the barn’s expected to retain the mount in the Preakness. case of NYQUIST-induced seconditis? A Muddied Preakness Picture by NBC Sports Analyst

Analysis: The forecast for a wet track on Saturday changes everything, and Know This: I am banking my analysis on that forecast. With up to an inch of rain ready to Derby Do-Over fall over Pimlico, I’m going ‘all in’on muddy conditions that could significantly 10 times in the last 19 years the Kentucky change the complexion of the race. For as good as NYQUIST has been, Derby winner has won the Preakness. and was phenomenal in the Kentucky Derby, the question is whether or not EXAGGERATOR can be beaten on an off track? The winner No-Reach Zone moves way up on it and he’s my key in the Preakness. Only 2 horses have won the Preakness at odds of 20-1 or more. Main Contenders: It’s all about EXAGGERATOR and NYQUIST. Going into the Derby, you couldn’t argue with NYQUIST and what he had Bet-Back Special accomplished. And you still can’t. My change of heart in the Preakness is American Pharoah was the 11th Derby not about what NYQUIST can’t do, but rather what EXAGGERATOR can do... winner in the last 15 years to be the specifically on an off track. Expect both to run big races, with a slight edge Preakness favorite. going to EXAGGERATOR. Fenced In Value Plays: The off track and hot pace could benefit CHERRY WINE, and In the last 65 years, four starters from the he’s the only price horse I have any feel for in the Preakness. His lone effort on a rail have won the Preakness – American wet track was very impressive and his jockey, Corey Lanerie, is one of the best in Pharoah (2015), (1994), Bally the business at saving ground with closers and bringing them up the rail. Look Ache (1960) and Hill Prince (1950). for him to get a good, ground-saving trip Saturday. None of the others inspires me. Value in this race will have to come in the exotics and identifying the horses Well, Excluuuuude Me! that can jump up and grab a minor share of the prize. With apologies to comedian Steve Martin, horses excluded from the Kentucky Derby have had solid success at Pimlico. Tale Wagering Strategies ($100): of Verve was runner-up here a year ago; • $30 Win: EXAGGERATOR ($30) Hemingway’s Key was third in ’06; and • $12 Exacta: EXAGGERATOR over NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE ($24) was second in ’04. • $5 Exacta: NYQUIST and CHERRY WINE over EXAGGERATOR ($10) • $1 Trifecta Part Wheel: EXAGERRATOR with NYQUIST, CHERRY WINE with ALL ($18) More Than Half • $1 Trifecta Part Wheel: EXAGGERATOR with ALL with NYQUIST, Favorites are a strong 72-for-141 in the CHERRY WINE ($18) Preakness; odds-on choices are now 18-for-28 after American Pharoah’s popular score at 4-to-5.

Picks 1. EXAGGERATOR 2. NYQUIST 3. CHERRY WINE 4. FELLOWSHIP Emptor by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter

Analysis: Handicappers are by nature copycats. They believe what happened Stats & Trends: yesterday will also occur later today. Of course, that rarely happens. But in Derby Winners in Preakness NYQUIST’S case, it is caveat emptor – translated, let-the-buyer-beware. His big (Last 15 Years) win in the Kentucky Derby looks to the naked eye like what SHOULD happen in Year Horse Fin. Odds the Preakness Stakes, only at 1-5 odds, not 2-1. The scenario looks like a carbon 2015 American Pharoah 1st 4-5* copy. NYQUIST uses his “cruising speed” to stalk a rapid pace, takes over at will, 2014 California Chrome 1st 1-2* and draws off to yet another victory. So, if you (and I do), to defy his 2013 Orb 4th 3-5* unblemished record is truly a case of caveat emptor. 2012 I’ll Have Another 1st 3-1 2011 2nd 2-1* Main Contenders: NYQUIST, of course. EXAGGERATOR will try for the fifth 2010 Super Saver 8th 9-5* time to defeat his nemesis. His second-place finish in the Derby was impressive, 2009 2nd 6-1 but he looks to play the part of an also-ran, like and in Triple Crown 2008 Big Brown 1st 1-5* history. Off/sloppy track conditions should be irrelevant to this conversation (Take 2007 Street Sense 2nd 6-5* that, Eddie Olcyzk!). EXAGGERATOR actually ran faster in the Derby than he did 2006 Barbaro dnf 1-2* when supposedly `moving up’ on the sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby. If 2005 3rd 6-1 it’s fresh blood you seek, STRADIVARI may be the choice. He’s 2-for-2 around 2004 Smarty Jones 1st 3-5* two turns and trained by the talented Todd Pletcher. His 3-year-old speed figure 2003 Funny Cide 1st 9-5* measures up, although it took place in first-level allowance at Keeneland. 2002 War Emblem 1st 5-2* 2001 6th 2-1 *Preakness Favorite Value Plays: Yikes. If you back the unbeaten NYQUIST, then the win pool is out. The next stop is the “will pays” for the exacta pool to try and hit the 1-2 Derby Runner-Ups in Preakness finishers and increase the 1-5 value on the Derby champion. But then whom (Last 15 Years) do you choose? My plan is to load up on the same combination that clicked at Year Horse Fin. Odds Churchill Downs in the exacta – NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR. Price shoppers 2015 7th 3-1 will go hunting that the chalk has an off day. About 90% of the time, that is my 2014 did not compete -- -- personal choice to click on a long-haul basis. Not now. 2013 did not compete -- -- 2012 Bodemeister 2nd 8-5* Wagering Strategies ($100): 2011 did not compete -- -- • $70 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($70) 2010 did not compete -- -- • $30 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($30) 2009 11th 6-1 2008 did not compete -- -- Preakness Stakes History: The Last... 2007 3rd 4-1 Kentucky Derby winner to win: American Pharoah (2015) 2006 did not compete -- -- 2005 9th 7-1 Kentucky Derby runner-up to win: (1993) 2004 Lion Heart 4th 9-2 Kentucky Derby show horse to win: Curlin (2007) 2003 did not compete -- -- Kentucky Derby off-the-board finisher to win:Oxbow (2013) 2002 Proud Citizen 3rd 7-1 2001 did not compete -- -- Non-Kentucky Derby alum to win: Rachel Alexandra (2009)

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. STRADIVARI 4. COLLECTED Exotic Wagering Chart Preakness Day can produce some juicy exotic payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack.

EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager) TRIFECTA KEY: ($.50 Wager) 2 horse box ...... $2 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $3 3 horse box ...... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 4 horse box ...... $12 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $6 5 horse box ...... $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 6 horse box ...... $30 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $10 7 horse box ...... $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 8 horse box ...... $56 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $21 One Horse with All (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) 6 horse field ...... $5 7 horse field ...... $6 SUPERFECTA BOX: ($.10 Wager) 8 horse field ...... $7 4 Horse Box ...... $2.40 9 horse field ...... $8 5 Horse Box ...... $12 10 horse field ...... $9 6 Horse Box ...... $36

TRIFECTA BOX: ($.50 Wager) SUPERFECTA WHEEL: ($.10 Wager) 3 Horse Box ...... $3 One Horse with All with All with All 4 Horse Box ...... $12 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 5 Horse Box ...... $30 7 Horse Field ...... $12 6 Horse Box ...... $60 8 Horse Field ...... $21 7 Horse Box ...... $105 9 Horse Field ...... $33.60 8 Horse Box ...... $168 10 Horse Field ...... $50.40

TRIFECTA WHEEL: ($.50 Wager) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field ...... $15 7 Horse Field ...... $4 8 Horse Field ...... $21 8 Horse Field ...... $6 9 Horse Field ...... $28 9 Horse Field ...... $8.40 10 Horse Field ...... $36 10 Horse Field ...... $11.20

One Horse with Two Horses with All SUPERFECTA KEY: ($.10 Wager) (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/All/2,3 or 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $.60 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1) (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 7 Horse Field ...... $5 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $2.40 8 Horse Field ...... $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 9 Horse Field ...... $7 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $6 10 Horse Field ...... $8 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $12 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $21 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) Fluke-less Derby Winner by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Analyst

Analysis: The Kentucky Derby victory by NYQUIST clocked in the Top 15 Stats & Trends: all-time at nearly every point of call, including the wire. So, while the speed Fastest Preakness Stakes and performance gurus got it wrong on this runner heading into Louisville, Year Horse Time the public did not. At 2.30-to-1 odds, NYQUIST was the heaviest favorite in a 1973 Secretariat 1:53 Kentucky Derby field of 20 in nearly 80 years. That’s about as “all-in” for a favorite 1985 Tank’s Prospect 1:53 2/5 as you can be, and when the 1-2-3-4 betting choices at post time click the 1996 1:53 2/5 superfecta in exact order, it’s hard to any fluky explanation. Now we 2007 Curlin 1:53 2/5 head to Pimlico with only a few possibilities to flip the script. 1984 1:53 3/5 1990 1:53 3/5 Main Contenders: NYQUIST obviously stands out. Derby runner-up 1989 Sunday Silence 1:53 4/5 EXAGGERATOR has four times fallen short of his rival, but the Alydar to this Fastest Fractions Affirmed has narrowed the margin of defeat in each and every bid so far. Former Dist. Time Horse riding kingpin Kent Desormeaux could be an extra length 1/4 :22 2/5 (Tied 4 times) or two at his old Pimlico stomping grounds, but EXAGGERATOR could be an 1/2 :45 (1976) underlay if the track turns up sloppy as predicted. His fair odds drop from 7-2 on 3/4 1:09 Bold Forbes (1976) a fast track to what could be actual odds of 2-1 or 9-5 in the goo, and that’s too Mile 1:34 1/5 Sunday Silence (1989) short of a number. Rising star, STRADIVARI, immediately harkened “Preakness” Chief’s Crown (1985) when dominating a good allowance field at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher rarely Secretariat (1973) shows up with a runner in the middle jewel, so if he’s got one here, take notice. Final 1:53 Secretariat (1973)

Value Plays: With a tremendous amount of new speed possible for the Half-Mile Leaders Preakness, including LAOBAN, AWESOME SPEED, COLLECTED and even Parx Year Horse Finish raider ABIDING STAR, the early pressure could set this race up to fall apart to deep 2015 American Pharoah 1st closers for the underneath positions. CHERRY WINE should offer a fair price from off 2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th the pace and alumni have been pure dynamite in this race historically. 2013 Oxbow 1st While everyone knows of EXAGGERATOR and his wet-track prowess, CHERRY 2012 Bodemeister 2nd WINE offers a similar running style and affinity for the slop, but at what should be 2011 Flashpoint 14th nearly 10 times the price. If looking for another late-running bomber, the draw and 2010 2nd pace scenario could help FELLOWSHIP light the bottom of the super. 2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st 2008 Gayego 11th Wagering Strategies ($100): • $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over CHERRY WINE ($100) Know This: The New Crew Since 1983, the only Preakness winners who skipped the Kentucky Derby were Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. CHERRY WINE 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. STRADIVARI What Else You Got? by Jeff Siegel XBTV Analyst

Analysis: You may have thought a $6.60 winning payoff for an unbeaten, Stats & Trends: Breeders’ Cup winning, Award champion in the Kentucky Derby was, Wire-to-Wire Winners in retrospect, . It was, but don’t count on getting anywhere near that (Last 50 Years) same price in the Preakness. Those who doubted the credentials of NYQUIST Year Horse entering the first jewel of the Triple Crown focused primarily on his modest 2015 American Pharoah* speed figures, especially in route races, and his pedigree, which leaned much 2013 Oxbow * more towards speed than stamina and therefore placed doubt over his 2009 Rachel Alexandra * ability to handle the Derby’s 10-furlong trip. Those questions were answered, 1996 Louis Quartorze * emphatically. Now, what else you got? 1982 Aloma’s Ruler 1972 Main Contenders: STRADIVARI has started only three times and has never *Did not lead at start call. faced stakes competition, but he’s won his last two by a combined 25 1/2-lengths Last-to-First Winners and he earned a triple-digit Beyer number in his most recent outing. He may very (Since 1910) well have more raw talent than any horse NYQUIST has ever faced. Year Horse Strs. Behind ½ Mile 1974 13 10 1/2 lengths Value Plays: There will be plenty of value available if you’re to 1961 9 14 1/2 lengths beating NYQUIST, but if you find that exercise futile, you’d better have a strong 1952 10 13 1/2 lengths opinion in the exacta or trifecta. STRADIVARI may not be seasoned enough to 1941 Whirlaway 9 9 lengths handle NYQUIST, but he’s good enough to beat everybody else. And his style suggests he’ll draft into an ideal second-flight position and have every chance Successful Locals to pounce when it counts. (Last 25 Years) Year Horse Fin. Wagering Strategies ($100): 2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 2nd • $80 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($80) 2005 2nd • $20 Exacta: STRADIVARI over NYQUIST ($20) 2002 Magic Weisner 2nd 1997 3rd Nyquist Extras 1995 Oliver’s Twist 2nd He is the eighth unbeaten Derby winner in history, first to be 8-for-8 since (1969). Know This: It’s Good to be a Rebel He is the first unbeaten 2-year-old champion to win the Kentucky Derby Last year, American Pharoah joined an since Seattle Slew (1977, won Triple Crown) and joins (1922) and impressive recent list of Oaklawn Park’s (1915, champion 2-year-old filly of ’14) as just the fourth Rebel Stakes alumni to succeed in the runner ever to complete the parlay. Preakness: Smarty Jones (2004), Afleet Nyquist’s $6.60 Kentucky Derby win payoff matches (2000) Alex (2005), Curlin (2007), as lowest $2 win payoff since $3.20 in 1979. (2010) and Oxbow (2013). He was the heaviest individual favorite (2.30-to-1) in a 20-horse Derby field since War Admiral in 1937 (won at 1.60-to-1).

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. STRADIVARI 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. CHERRY WINE All Signs Point to Nyquist by Jon White Santa Anita Morning Line Oddsmaker

Analysis: Based on past results, the 2016 Preakness winner probably ran in Stats & Trends: the Kentucky Derby. Only three of the last 32 Preakness winners (Red Bullet Failed Derby Winners in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009) did not start in the Year Horse Fin. Derby. Additionally, in the last 14 years the Kentucky Derby winner often has 2010 Super Saver 8th gone on to take the Preakness--three of the last four years and seven of the last 2006 Barbaro dnf 14. That bodes well for undefeated NYQUIST, who extended his winning streak 2001 Monarchos 6th to eight in the Run for the Roses. 1991 6th 1984 7th Main Contenders: The main contenders are the first two finishers in the 1983 Sunny’s 6th Kentucky Derby, NYQUIST and EXAGGERATOR. These two talented colts, 1970 9th well clear of the other 18 starters at the finish of the Kentucky Derby, now 1965 7th have met four times, with NYQUIST winning each. Can EXAGGERATOR 1962 8th finally defeat NYQUIST in the Preakness? It’s doubtful, though not impossible. 1923 12th EXAGGERATOR was gaining on NYQUIST toward the end of the Derby, but Winners Who Skipped Derby the shorter distance of the Preakness probably works in NYQUIST’S favor. (Since 1970) Perhaps the best hope for EXAGGERATOR and those trying to beat NYQUIST Year Horse in Baltimore is if coming bªck in just two weeks somehow is too much for 2009 Rachel Alexandra NYQUIST to handle. But even that seems unlikely because NYQUIST is going 2006 Bernardini into the Preakness relatively fresh, having made just two starts this year before 2000 Red Bullet the Kentucky Derby. 1983 1982 Aloma’s Ruler COLLECTED Value Plays: won the Lexington Stakes by four-lengths at 1980 Keeneland for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness 1972 Bee Bee Bee six times, including last year with Triple Crown conqueror American Pharoah. STRADIVARI looked terrific when he won his initial 2016 start by 14 1/2-lengths Where Winners Were Bred at Keeneland, but I was not nearly as impressed by his subsequent workout Wins State in company at Churchill Downs with Destin who then finished sixth in the 96 Kentucky Kentucky Derby. 8 Maryland 7 Florida Wagering Strategies ($100): 6 • $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($100) 6 Virginia Preakness Stakes History: The Last... Kentucky Derby exacta to repeat 1-2 in Preakness: I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012) Kentucky Derby trifecta to repeat 1-2-3 in Preakness: Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It (1978) to win: Funny Cide (2003)

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. COLLECTED 4. STRADIVARI Gem of an Exacta by Dick Jerardi Daily Racing Form Columnist

Analysis: The Kentucky Derby had just a few speed horses and one of them, Stats & Trends: NYQUIST, also happened to be the best horse. It was domination from the start, Race of Champions NYQUIST looking like the winner every step of the trip. Accomplished Derby (Preakness Winner was Champion winners rarely lose the Preakness and NYQUIST, with his perfect record, nearly 3-year-old in 13 of the last 15 years.) $5 million in earnings and five Grade 1 wins at five different tracks, is incredibly Year Horse accomplished. There is a chance the Preakness could have a few more speed 2015 American Pharoah horses than the Derby, but NYQUIST is as versatile as he is fast so it is hard to 2014 California Chrome imagine an uncomfortable scenario. There is also this: NYQUIST is fast enough 2012 I’ll Have Another to have been on or just off the lead in four sprint races, so even when it looks 2010 Lookin At Lucky like there is other speed, NYQUIST often outruns that speed from the start. This 2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly) horse’s style reminds me of Smarty Jones, another unbeaten Derby winner who 2008 Big Brown went on to win the Preakness by the biggest margin in the race’s history. 2007 Curlin 2006 Bernardini Main Contenders: NYQUIST was nine-lengths in front of EXAGGERATOR 2005 at the quarter pole in the Derby, one and one-quarter lengths at the finish. 2004 Smarty Jones That sounds interesting unless you kept watching past the wire. NYQUIST’S 2003 Funny Cide lead actually was extended during the gallop out. EXAGGERATOR was never 2002 War Emblem going by. Trailing in second and third behind NYQUIST in Kentucky were horses 2001 Point Given that had combined to win the Santa Anita Derby, Delta Jackpot, Saratoga 2015 Preakness Handle Special, and . The key word is trailing. NYQUIST has (Millions, Except for Double) finished in front of 79 horses so far, including poor EXAGGERATOR four times. Pool Handle EXAGGERATOR is 4-for-6 in races that do not include NYQUIST. Several of Win,Place, Show $19.5 the newcomers have serious early speed and good speed figures. They would Trifecta $11.7 include LAOBAN, STRADIVARI and UNCLE LINO. Exacta $ 9.0 Superfecta $ 6.5 NYQUIST Value Plays: Good luck trying to beat , but if you must try, you could Pick Four $ 2.4 COLLECTED do worse than to fall on Lexington Stakes winner , an improving colt ‘Susan /Preakness Double $677k that will need another big jump to win. FELLOWSHIP is my play for the exotics at a price, closing to pick up the pieces left behind by the speed. Largest Preakness Crowds Attendance Year Winner Wagering Strategies ($100): 131,680 2015 American Pharoah • $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over FELLOWSHIP ($100) 123,469 2014 California Chrome Nyquist Extras 121,309 2012 I’ll Have Another 121,264 2007 Curlin Nyquist’s $4.95 million earned is the second-most ever exiting a Derby. Smarty Jones’ $5 million Centennial Season Bonus from Oaklawn Park pushed him to $6,763,155. Nyquist’s 2:01.31 Kentucky Derby time rates 14th-best in history and fastest since Funny Cide in 2003.

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. FELLOWSHIP 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. STRADIVARI Empty Net Goal for Nyquist by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host

Analysis: As mentioned annually, runners contesting the Preakness off Stats & Trends: favorable (or forgivable) Derby efforts should be the foundation of your wagers. Longshot Winners In the last 14 Preakness editions, 12 winners of the arrived from (15-1 Odds or Higher) Louisville after positive results. Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) $2 Payoff Horse Year were exceptions. The 2016 Preakness analysis must start with three from the $48.80 1975 Derby - NYQUIST, EXAGGERATOR and ninth-place finisher, LANI. $45.60 1925 $40.70 1926 Main Contenders: It appears this Preakness will feature more $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972 pace types than the Derby, but it’s been established that NYQUIST can adjust $32.80 Oxbow 2013 to most conceivable scenarios. It’s hard to envision a development where any of $32.00 1900 the Derby runners or newcomers deny him. EXAGGERATOR was courageous in $32.00 1907 defeat two weeks ago but the record of Derby runners up in Maryland is weak. New Millennium Blowouts Lengths Horse Year CHERRY WINE fell just short of a bid to make the Derby Value Plays: 11 1/2 Smarty Jones 2004 gate, but has had extra time to prepare for the Preakness and has been 9 3/4 Funny Cide 2003 working forwardly for this start. He and another closer, FELLOWSHIP, 7 American Phoarah 2015 have styles that fit the race flow well. UNCLE LINO Talented, developing 5 1/4 Big Brown 2008 forced his way into the field by following up his Santa Anita Derby third with a 5 1/4 Bernardini 2006 win in the California Chrome Stakes, but will have to be better than LAOBAN, COLLECTED, STRADIVARI and AWESOME SPEED on the front end. Baffert’s Baltimore Beauties Year Preakness Winner Wagering Strategies ($100): 2015 American Pharoah • $5 Trifecta Key: NYQUIST with EXAGGERATOR, CHERRY WINE, UNCLE 2010 Lookin At Lucky LINO, FELLOWSHIP and COLLECTED ($100) 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given 1998 Real Quiet 1997 Silver Charm Derby Winners in Preakness Since ‘89 Year Horse Finish Know This: 2016 Nyquist TBD Two Digits Too Much? 2015 American Pharoah 1st Only four horses have finished worse 2014 California Chrome 1st than ninth in the Kentucky Derby and 2012 I’ll Have Another 1st rebounded to win the Preakness – most 2005 Giacomo 3rd recently Louis Quatorze in 1996 (16th). 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2nd 1999 Charismatic 1st 1998 Real Quiet 1st 1997 Silver Charm 1st 1989 Sunday Silence 1st

Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR 3. CHERRY WINE 4. FELLOWSHIP