Technology Assessment of Autonomous Intelligent Bipedal and Other Legged Robots
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TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF AUTONOMOUS INTELLIGENT BIPEDAL AND OTHER LEGGED ROBOTS FINAL REPORT Contract Number MDA972-02-M-0025 Submitted To: Dr. Alan Rudolph Defense Sciences Office Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency 3701 North Fairfax Drive Arlington, Virginia 22203-1714 Phone: (703)-696-2240 Fax: (703)-696-3999 [email protected] Submitted By: Dr. Robert Finkelstein, President Robotic Technology Inc. 11424 Palatine Drive Potomac, Maryland 20854-1451 Phone: (301)-983-4194 Fax: (301)-983-3921 [email protected] And Dr. James Albus, Senior NIST Fellow Intelligent Systems Division National Institute of Standards and Technology Building 220, Room B124 Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899-0001 Phone: (301)-975-3418 Fax: (301)-990-9688 [email protected] Revised 13 May 2003 & 21 November 2004 CONTENTS Section Page I. Executive Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations 2 1.0 Purpose 5 2.0 Background 5 3.0 Expert Panel 10 4.0 Expert Survey Results 36 5.0 User Survey Results 53 6.0 Metrics for Humanoid and Legged Robots 63 7.0 Functional Analysis 69 8.0 State of Humanoid and Legged Robot Technology 89 9.0 Roadmap 105 Appendix A: Prospective and Actual Survey Experts 113 Appendix B: Survey Form for Survey of Robot Experts 122 Appendix C: Aggregated Expert Survey Results 130 Appendix D: User Survey Participants 188 Appendix E: Survey Form for Survey of Robot Users 190 Appendix F: Aggregated User Survey Results 197 Appendix G: Metrics Figures 231 Appendix H: Functional Diagram of Any Legged Robot 238 Appendix I: References 239 1 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS I.1 Purpose The purpose of this project is to perform a technology assessment of supervised autonomous intelligent humanoid robots, to examine current technology and systems to determine the feasibility of humanoid robots, and other legged robots, for militarily useful behavior in the near to far term (e.g., years 2002 - 2030) and to provide a technology roadmap for developing and demonstrating a humanoid robot for a selected military mission. The expectation is that DARPA will support the development and demonstration of militarily useful humanoid robots. I.2 Background There are a number of ongoing programs in the Department of Defense (DOD) for the development of combat robotics, but they emphasize the development wheeled or tracked vehicle platforms, not humanoid robots. But the world of artifacts is designed by humans for humans – such as tools, buildings, and vehicles. A humanoid robot, with biped legs, dexterous arms and hands, and sufficient intelligence, could function smoothly in that world: moving about in buildings, climbing stairs or ladders, opening doors with doorknobs instead of force, using existing tools, operating existing machinery, driving existing vehicles - and firing existing weapons. In the natural environment, military wheeled vehicles can operate on about 30% of the earth’s land surface, and military tracked vehicles can travel on about 50%. Legged organisms and machines, including bipedal humanoids, can travel over nearly the entire land surface. Also, humans will interact most easily with robots that appear to be human. While programs in several countries are focused on developing humanoid robots, Japanese companies, in general, have expended the most effort in developing humanoid robots. Although these robots have advanced sensing and control for autonomic effector movement (such as walking), they are limited in their autonomous interaction with the environment. Because the U.S. is more advanced in autonomous intelligent control (albeit, for vehicles), an interesting project would be to integrate a U.S. control system (such as the NIST hybrid 4D/RCS) with a suitable humanoid robot. The resulting autonomous, intelligent, robots will have widespread military and civil applications. I.3 Expert Panel We assembled technology data from in-house RTI databases, Japanese and other industrial humanoid robot developers, and U.S. government and university laboratories. For technology and program guidance, we formed an advisory panel of U.S. humanoid robot experts. The panel provided insight into several key issues: the U.S. is rapidly falling behind the Japanese (and perhaps even the Europeans) in developing humanoid robots; hexapod robots are inappropriate as large legged robots; quadruped and hybrid robots, such as a Centaur-type robot, can be militarily useful; rapidly advancing technology will make militarily valuable humanoid robots feasible on the battlefield by 2015 (and as capable, efficient, and reliable as human soldiers by 2035); the 4D/RCS control architecture can be used to achieve supervised, intelligent autonomous humanoid robots; and the advent of humanoid robots will have major 2 civilian societal impacts and advance the scientific understanding of human physiology and psychology. I.4 Expert Survey A survey of robotics experts provides insights in the form of comments, opinions, and scoring of the survey forms. The experts judge the current state of technology for developing militarily useful robots as generally poor because of the lack of enabling technologies (such as adaptable bipedal leg control). The experts foresee 2012 as the expected year in which the technology will be at least satisfactory, although there are some optimists forecasting a year sooner than 2007 (depending primarily on funding). They expect humanoid robots to be used for at least some military missions by 2020. The most promising humanoid robot mission is deemed to be reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA), followed by military operations in urban terrain (MOUT). They expect humanoid robots to have a significant impact on military operations by 2024. The experts deem hybrid legged robots to be more useful for the military than pure bipedal humanoids (with the humanoid second in importance). They judge the biped to be the most technically difficult legged robot to develop. The experts judge propulsion (suitable energy source) to be the most pressing humanoid R&D need, followed by bipedal leg control. The experts think that semi-autonomy (about half teleoperation and half autonomy) is sufficient for most missions. The expected unit cost of a military humanoid robot, forecast by the experts, is about $1 million. {Note: This is comparable to the unit manufacturing cost of the Honda Asimo humanoid, reported to be $1 million (after a development cost of $100 million), with an annual leasing cost to the user of about $150,000 [Washington Post, 3 Aug. 02, P.C01], and a possible sales price of $100,000 [Economist, Vol. 357, Issue 8202, P.102)]. But another source reports that the Asimo production cost is about $80,000 [The Industrial Robot, V. 28, Issue 3, P.186]. By comparison, the Sony Aibo quadruped dog robot costs about $1,500, selling more than 100,000 units [Economist, Vol. 357, Issue 8202, P.102)]. The Sony HOAP-1 humanoid robot is expected to sell for $41,000 [PC Magazine, 13 Nov. 01, P.67], while the Sony SDR-3X humanoid manufacturing cost is about $24,000 [The Industrial Robot, V. 28, Issue 3, P.186]. A security humanoid robot, to be manufactured by a Sanyo Electric Co. team, is to sell for about $86,000 [Hara, Yoshika, CMP Media, 16 Sep. 03, P.A157].} I.5 User Survey A survey of prospective humanoid and legged robot users judges countermine and explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) missions as the primary way they would likely employ the robots (with RSTA a close second). The users predict that humanoid robots will have significant military worth, but that they will not be ubiquitous throughout the military in the 21st century. The users tended to be more pessimistic than the experts about the promising missions for humanoid robots, but while the experts selected RSTA as the most promising mission, the users selected countermine/EOD operations. The users favored quadruped robots as their legged choice over bipedal humanoids. While the experts expect a unit cost of $1 million for military humanoid robots, the users predict a cost of about $400,000. The major issue for users is technology, followed closely by safety. The users favor somewhat greater autonomy for 3 humanoid robots than the experts. And they think that humanoid robots should be fielded the sooner the better. I.6 Metrics for Humanoid and Legged Robots We defined, weighted, and scored metrics and submetrics against which to evaluate prospective humanoid and legged robots, as they are designed and proposed. The four main metrics are: effectiveness, efficiency, life cycle cost, and development risk. I.7 Functional Analysis We decomposed the major functions (sensing, processing, etc.) of any legged robot in terms of the corresponding subsystems and described various approaches for the subsystems to function as part of an autonomous legged robot. I.8 State of Humanoid and Legged Robot Technology After examining the literature, we concluded that in recent years there has been significant progress in the technology of bipedal humanoid and other legged robots (primarily hexapods and quadrupeds). Teleoperation (and telepresence) of legged robots is feasible in the near-term and militarily useful. A number of tools, including genetic algorithms, neural networks, expert systems, vision-based walking, and various kinds of control algorithms, are being developed for optimal gait control. Many of these techniques will enable humanoid robots to learn complex tasks in uncertain environments without the need for programmers to foresee every contingency. Methods for robot cognition are improving and humanoid robots are becoming more lifelike in their movement and ability to interact with humans. Nevertheless, more progress is needed for humanoid robots to achieve military worth. I.9 Roadmap The U.S. Army’s EOD Technical Detachment issued the U.S. military’s first known Mission Needs Statement for a humanoid robot and are eager to cooperate in the development of humanoid robots for EOD missions. As we show, the Technology Readiness Levels of humanoid robot subsystems for the EOD mission must be elevated.