Intelligent Cash Flow and Investment Decisions
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Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information- What They Tell Us About the Need for Federal Securities Regulation
Missouri Law Review Volume 54 Issue 3 Summer 1989 Article 2 Summer 1989 Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information- What They Tell Us about the Need for Federal Securities Regulation C. Edward Fletcher III Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/mlr Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation C. Edward Fletcher III, Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information-What They Tell Us about the Need for Federal Securities Regulation, 54 MO. L. REV. (1989) Available at: https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/mlr/vol54/iss3/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Missouri Law Review by an authorized editor of University of Missouri School of Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Fletcher: Fletcher: Of Crashes, Corrections, and the Culture of Financial Information OF CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND THE CULTURE OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION-WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT THE NEED FOR FEDERAL SECURITIES REGULATION C. Edward Fletcher, III* In this article, the author examines financial data from the 1929 crash and ensuing depression and compares it with financial data from the market decline of 1987 in an attempt to determine why the 1929 crash was followed by a depression but the 1987 decline was not. The author argues that the difference between the two events can be understood best as a difference between the existence of a "culture of financial information" in 1987 and the absence of such a culture in 1929. -
2020-2024 County Growth Policy Working Draft Appendices
2020-2024 WORKING DRAFT APPENDICES May 21, 2020 Prepared by Montgomery Planning www.MontgomeryPlanning.org [This page is intentionally blank.] Table of Contents Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................................... i Appendix A. Forecasting Future Growth ............................................................................................... 5 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Montgomery County Jurisdictional Forecast Methodology ...................................................................... 5 Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Countywide Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 5 TAZ-level Small Area Forecast ............................................................................................................... 6 Projection Reconciliation ....................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix B. Recent Trends in Real Estate ........................................................................................... 11 Residential Real Estate ........................................................................................................................... -
A Profit Model for Spread Trading with an Application to Energy Futures
A profit model for spread trading with an application to energy futures by Takashi Kanamura, Svetlozar T. Rachev, Frank J. Fabozzi No. 27 | MAY 2011 WORKING PAPER SERIES IN ECONOMICS KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association econpapers.wiwi.kit.edu Impressum Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung (IWW) Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie und Statistik (ETS) Schlossbezirk 12 76131 Karlsruhe KIT – Universität des Landes Baden-Württemberg und nationales Forschungszentrum in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Working Paper Series in Economics No. 27, May 2011 ISSN 2190-9806 econpapers.wiwi.kit.edu A Profit Model for Spread Trading with an Application to Energy Futures Takashi Kanamura J-POWER Svetlozar T. Rachev¤ Chair of Econometrics, Statistics and Mathematical Finance, School of Economics and Business Engineering University of Karlsruhe and KIT, Department of Statistics and Applied Probability University of California, Santa Barbara and Chief-Scientist, FinAnalytica INC Frank J. Fabozzi Yale School of Management October 19, 2009 ABSTRACT This paper proposes a profit model for spread trading by focusing on the stochastic move- ment of the price spread and its first hitting time probability density. The model is general in that it can be used for any financial instrument. The advantage of the model is that the profit from the trades can be easily calculated if the first hitting time probability density of the stochastic process is given. We then modify the profit model for a particular market, the energy futures market. It is shown that energy futures spreads are modeled by using a mean- reverting process. -
Tracking and Trading Volatility 155
ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page i The Index Trading Course Workbook www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page ii Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Aus- tralia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For a list of available titles, visit our web site at www.WileyFinance.com. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iii The Index Trading Course Workbook Step-by-Step Exercises and Tests to Help You Master The Index Trading Course GEORGE A. FONTANILLS TOM GENTILE John Wiley & Sons, Inc. www.rasabourse.com ffirs.qxd 9/12/06 2:37 PM Page iv Copyright © 2006 by George A. Fontanills, Tom Gentile, and Richard Cawood. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. -
Stock-Market Simulations
Project DZT0518 Stock-Market Simulations An Interactive Qualifying Project Report: submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science By Bhanu Kilaru: _____________________________________ Tracyna Le: _______________________________________ Augustine Onoja: ___________________________________ Approved by: ______________________________________ Professor Dalin Tang, Project Advisor Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................... 5 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 7 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 BRIEF HISTORY .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2 DOW .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.3 NASDAQ.......................................................................................................................... -
Anatomy of a Meltdown
ISSUE 3 | VOLUME 4 | SEPTEMBER 2015 ANATOMY OF A MELTDOWN ................... 1-7 OUR THOUGHTS ......... 7 Cadence FOCUSED ON WHAT MATTERS MOST. clips Anatomy of a Meltdown When the stock market loses value quickly as it has done the process. It’s easier to remember the tumultuous fall this week, people get understandably nervous. It’s not months of 2008 than it is to remember the market actu- helpful to turn on CNBC to get live updates from the ally peaked a year earlier in 2007. We’ve seen a few trading floor and to listen to talking heads demand ac- smaller corrections over the past seven years, but tion from someone, anyone!, to stop this equity crash, as they’ve played out over months instead of years, and if things that go up up up should not be allowed to go relatively quick losses in value have been followed by down, especially this quickly. So much time has passed relatively quick, and in some cases astonishingly quick, since the pain of the 2007-2009 finan- recoveries, to the point that we cial crisis that it is easy to lose perspec- may be forgetting that most signifi- tive and forget how to prepare for and The key is to not change cant stock market losses take years how to react to a real stock market strategy during these volatile to fully occur. The key is to not decline, so every double digit drop change strategy during these vola- feels like a tragedy. periods and to plan ahead of tile periods and to plan ahead of time for the longer term time for the longer term moves By now we’ve convinced ourselves moves that cause the signifi- that cause the significant losses in that we should have seen the 2007- cant losses in value. -
Specialty Strategies
RCM Alternatives: AlternaRCt M ve s Whitepaper Specialty Strategies 318 W Adams St 10th FL | Chicago, IL 60606 | 855-726-0060 www.rcmalternatives.com | [email protected] RCM Alternatives: Specialty Strategies RCM It’s fairly common for “trend following” and “managed futures” to be used interchangeably. But there are many more strategies out there beyond the standard approach – a variety of approaches that we call Specialty Strategies. Specialty strategies include short-term, options, and spread traders. Short-Term Systematic Traders The cousin to the multi-market systematic trend is the trading equivalent of an arms race that most follower, the short-term systematic program will also money managers want to stay as far away from as look to latch onto a “trend” in an effort to make a possible. profit. The difference here has to do with timeframe, and how that impacts their trend identification, What types of shorter-term traders can we length of trade, and performance during volatile expect to invest with? First, there are day trading times. Unlike longer-term trend followers, short-term strategies. A day trading system is defined by a systematic traders may believe an hours-long move is single characteristic: that it will NOT hold a position enough to represent a trend, allowing them to take overnight, with all positions covered by the end of advantage of market moves that are much shorter in the trading day. This appeals to many investors who duration. One man’s noise is another’s treasure in the don’t like the prospect of something happening in minds of short term traders. -
A Study on Advantages of Separate Trade Book for Bull Call Spreads and Bear Put Spreads
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) e-ISSN: 2278-487X, p-ISSN: 2319-7668 PP 11-20 www.iosrjournals.org A Study on Advantages of Separate Trade book for Bull Call Spreads and Bear Put Spreads. Chirag Babulal Shah PhD (Pursuing), M.M.S., B.B.A., D.B.M., P.G.D.F.T., D.M.T.T. Assistant Professor at Indian Education Society’s Management College and Research Centre. Abstract: Derivatives are revolutionary instruments and have changed the way one looks at the financial world. Derivatives were introduced as a hedging tool. However, as the understanding of the intricacies of these instruments has evolved, it has become more of a speculative tool. The biggest advantage of Derivative instruments is the leverage it provides. The other benefit, which is not available in the spot market, is the ability to short the underlying, for more than a day. Thus it is now easy to take advantage of the downtrend. However, the small retail participants have not had a good overall experience of trading in derivatives and the public at large is still bereft of the advantages of derivatives. This has led to a phobia for derivatives among the small retail market participants, and they prefer to stick to the old methods of investing. The three main reasons identified are lack of knowledge, the margining methods and the quantity of the lot size. The brokers have also misled their clients and that has led to catastrophic results. The retail participation in the derivatives markets has dropped down dramatically. But, are these derivative instruments and especially options, so bad? The answer is NO. -
A Fundamental Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Charting
© Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 1 TRADE LIKE THE FLOUNDER An overview to Matt’s trading style, methods, thoughts, and insights © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 2 Acronyms and Shorthand Cheat Sheet • PnL – Profit and Loss (P. and L. → P n L) • IV – implied volatility • IRA – Individual Retirement Account • Vol – Volatility (typically, IMPLIED volatility) • DTE – Days to Expiration • Roll – move an option from one strike and/or expiration to a different strike and/or expiration • ATM/ITM/OTM/DITM – At the Money, In the Money, Out of the Money, DEEP in the Money • Legging – trading a piece of a spread by itself instead of the whole spread • Skew – the difference between supply/demand (or IV) at different strikes or expirations • Front month – the shorter-dated contract of a multiple-expiration spread • Back month – the longer-dated contract of a multiple-expiration spread • Opex – Option expiration © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 3 PART 1 – WHAT KIND OF TRADER AM I? Vehicle, products, time frames, structures, targets, etc. © Copyright 2018 TheoTrade, LLC. All Rights Reserved 4 What do I prefer to trade? Ask most people that question, they will tell you what PRODUCTS they like to trade (GOOG, AAPL, VIX, etc.) but before you settle on a product, learn WHAT you’re trading. Things you can trade: Direction (up or down) Volatility (IV vs. HV) Correlation/Relative Strength/Beta (Pairs Trading) Mispricing/Difference in pricing (Pure arbitrage) Order Flow (HFT) M&A/Special Situations (Merger Arb) Almost ALL retail traders trade direction. I primarily trade volatility. -
VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value
Advanced Option Trading Strategies: Lecture 1 Vertical Spreads – The simplest spread consists of buying one option and selling another to reduce the cost of the trade and participate in the directional movement of an underlying security. These trades are considered to be the easiest to implement and monitor. A vertical spread is intended to offer an improved opportunity to profit with reduced risk to the options trader. A vertical spread may be one of two basic types: (1) a debit vertical spread or (2) a credit vertical spread. Each of these two basic types can be written as either bullish or bearish positions. A debit spread is written when you expect the stock movement to occur over an intermediate or long- term period [60 to 120 days], whereas a credit spread is typically used when you want to take advantage of a short term stock price movement [60 days or less]. VERTICAL SPREADS: Taking Advantage of Intrinsic Option Value Debit Vertical Spreads Bull Call Spread During March, you decide that PFE is going to make a large up move over the next four months going into the Summer. This position is due to your research on the portfolio of drugs now in the pipeline and recent phase 3 trials that are going through FDA approval. PFE is currently trading at $27.92 [on March 12, 2013] per share, and you believe it will be at least $30 by June 21st, 2013. The following is the option chain listing on March 12th for PFE. View By Expiration: Mar 13 | Apr 13 | May 13 | Jun 13 | Sep 13 | Dec 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 Call Options Expire at close Friday, -
YOUR QUICK START GUIDE to OPTIONS SUCCESS.Pages
YOUR QUICK START GUIDE TO OPTIONS SUCCESS Don Fishback IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Fishback Management and Research, Inc. (FMR), its principles and employees reserve the right to, and indeed do, trade stocks, mutual funds, op?ons and futures for their own accounts. FMR, its principals and employees will not knowingly trade in advance of the general dissemina?on of trading ideas and recommenda?ons. There is, however, a possibility that when trading for these proprietary accounts, orders may be entered, which are opposite or otherwise different from the trades and posi?ons described herein. This may occur as a result of the use of different trading systems, trading with a different degree of leverage, or tes?ng of new trading systems, among other reasons. The results of any such trading are confiden?al and are not available for inspec?on. This publica?on, in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, retransmiDed, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, broadcast or circulated to anyone without the express prior wriDen permission of FMR except by bona fide news organiza?ons quo?ng brief passages for purposes of review. Due to the number of sources from which the informa?on contained in this newsleDer is obtained, and the inherent risks of distribu?on, there may be omissions or inaccuracies in such informa?on and services. FMR, its employees and contributors take every reasonable step to insure the integrity of the data. However, FMR, its owners and employees and contributors cannot and do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, currentness or fitness for a par?cular purpose of the informa?on contained in this newsleDer. -
Revenue Growth in a Declining Market
Media Release Page 1/2 Winterthur, January 23, 2020 2019 financial year: revenue growth in a declining market Thanks to numerous new ramp-ups and the favorable portfolio of vehicle models supplied, Autoneum grew organically by 2.5% in a declining market. Adjusted for currency effects, Group revenue in Swiss francs amounted to CHF 2 297.4 million, 0.7% higher compared to the previous year. CHF million 2019 2018 Change Organic growth* Revenue Group 2 297.4 2 281.5 +0.7% +2.5% Revenue Business Groups (BG) - BG Europe 900.9 984.5 –8.5% –5.6% - BG North America 1 001.8 921.8 +8.7% +7.2% - BG Asia 275.7 260.3 +5.9% +8.1% - BG SAMEA 125.8 111.5 +12.8% +32.7% *Change in revenue in local currencies, adjusted for hyperinflation. For the second consecutive year, fewer vehicles were manufactured worldwide in 2019 than in the prior year. In particular, the persistently weak global economy and ongoing trade disputes have had an impact on vehicle demand. With only about 89 million vehicles produced, the market shrank by almost –6% compared to 2018. Despite this negative trend, Autoneum achieved an organic revenue growth of 2.5% through numerous production ramp-ups and a favorable mix of vehicle models supplied. Revenue consolidated in Swiss francs rose by 0.7% from CHF 2 281.5 million to CHF 2 297.4 million. Revenue growth in North America, Asia and SAMEA region significantly above market The Business Groups North America, Asia and SAMEA (South America, Middle East and Africa) not only outperformed the negative market trend in each case, but also reported higher revenues compared to the previous year.