July 2007 South Africa’s Automotive Industry 2007 Automotive Contents July 2007 List of abbreviations 1 State of South Africa’s automotive industry 3 – Global position 3 – Contribution to the GDP 3 – Vehicle distribution 4 – Structure of the market 4 – Size of the market 4 – Employment 5 – The Motor Industry Development Programme 6 – Vehicle production 6 – Capacity utilisation 6 – Investment in the automotive industry 8 – Automotive exports and imports 9 – Trade balance 10 – Vehicle prices 10 – Global trends and local responses 11 – Black economic empowerment 11 Motor Industry Development Proogramme 13 – Evolution of the government’s involvement in the automotive industry 13 – Mechanisms of the MIDP 13 – Evaluation of the MIDP 15 – Post-2012 support 16 Vehicle and component exports 18 – Vehicle exports 19 – Component exports 20 – Trade agreements 22 Automotive imports 24 Investment in the automotive industry 26 Main original equipment manufacturers 29 – BMW South Africa 29 – DaimlerChrysler South Africa 29 – Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa 30 www.researchchannel.co.za Automotive Contents July 2007 – General Motors South Africa 30 – Nissan South Africa 31 – Toyota South Africa 32 – Volkswagen South Africa 32 Contact list for the automotive industry 34 Main sources 37 www.researchchannel.co.za Automotive July 2007 List of abbreviations Agoa – African Growth and Opportunity Act BEE – black economic empowerment CBU – completely built up CCIG – Catalytic Converter Interest Group CSF – coated soot filter DCSA – DaimlerChrysler South Africa DPF – diesel particulate filter EU – European Union FMCSA – Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa GDP – gross domestic product GMSA – General Motors South Africa GSP – general system of preference HCV – heavy commercial vehicle IMV – innovative multipurpose vehicle IRCC – import rebate credit certificate LCV – light commercial vehicle MCV – medium commercial vehicle MIDP – Motor Industry Development Programme Naamsa – National Automobile Association of South Africa Nafta – North American Free Trade Area OEM – original equipment manufacturer PAA – Productive Asset Allowance Sacu – Southern African Customs Union SADC – Southern African Development Community TMC – Toyota Motor Corporation www.researchchannel.co.za 1 Automotive July 2007 TSA – Toyota South Africa VWSA – Volkswagen South Africa WTO – World Trade Organisation The material contained in this report was compiled by Shona Kohler and the Research Unit of Creamer Media (Pty) Ltd, based in Johannesburg, South Africa. To contact Creamer Media call +27 11 622 3744 or email [email protected]. www.researchchannel.co.za 2 Automotive July 2007 State of South Africa’s automotive industry Global position Top 25 vehicle producing countries in 2005 % of world Rank Country Production South Africa is a relatively small player in global production automotive production having, in 2006, produced 1 United States 11 980 912 18,03 only 0,85% of the total global vehicle production of 2 Japan 10 799 659 16,25 69,21-million vehicles. The country’s contribution 3 Germany 5 757 710 8,66 to global production, however, is increasing, and its 4 China 5 707 688 8,59 2006 share of global output was up on its contribution 5 South Korea 3 699 350 5,57 in previous years, with South African production 6 France 3 549 008 5,34 growing at a faster rate than global production. 7 Spain 2 752 500 4,14 South Africa’s contribution to global automotive output 8 Canada 2 688 363 4,04 % change 9 Brazil 2 528 300 3,80 2000 2004 2005 2006 2005/06 10 United Kingdom 1 803 049 2,71 Global 58,4- 64,49- 66,55- 69,21- vehicle +4% 11 Mexico 1 670 403 2,51 million million million million production 12 India 1 626 755 2,45 SA vehicle 0,357- 0,455- 0,525- 0,588- +11,9% production million million million million 13 Russia 1 351 199 2,03 SA share 14 Thailand 1 125 316 1,69 of global 0,61% 0,7% 0,79% 0,85% 15 Italy 1 038 352 1,56 production Source: Naamsa quarterly review of business conditions. 1st quarter 2007 16 Belgium 928 965 1,40 17 Turkey 879 092 1,32 The world’s top vehicle producing countries are the 18 Iran 817 200 1,23 US and Japan which, respectively, were the source of 18% and 16% of total global production in 2005. 19 Poland 625 443 0,94 Other major producers include Germany, China, 20 Czech Republic 604 930 0,91 South Korea, and France, which each produced 21 Malaysia 563 837 0,85 more than 5% of worldwide vehicle production in 22 South Africa 525 271 0,79 that year. 23 Indonesia 494 551 0,74 24 Taiwan 446 345 0,67 While South Africa is a relatively small producer 25 Australia 394 713 0,59 in global terms, the country is the top automotive Source: International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers producer in Africa, being the source of over 75% of the continent’s vehicle output. Minor assembly operations exist in several other African Contribution to the GDP countries, including Botswana which, according to the International Organisation of Motor Vehicle The contribution of South Africa’s automotive Manufacturers, produced 1 566 vehicles in 2005; sector to the country’s economy is significant, with Egypt, which produced 69 223 vehicles in 2005; the broader automotive industry representing the Kenya, which produced 405 vehicles in 2005; largest manufacturing sector in the country, and Morocco, which produced 14 881 vehicles in 2005; accounting for a significant share of manufacturing Nigeria, which produced 2 937 vehicles in 2005; and output. In 2006, the broader automotive industry Zimbabwe, which produced 960 vehicles in 2005. contributed 7,53% to the country’s gross domestic www.researchchannel.co.za 3 Automotive July 2007 product (GDP), continuing an upward trend, having Durban and Pietermaritzburg, has the manufacturing contributed 7,46% and 7,1% to GDP in 2005 and plant of Toyota and about 15% of the components 2004 respectively. industry. The sector’s position as one of South Africa’s In addition to the seven automotive manufacturers largest industries has much to do with its increasing in South Africa, many others – notably Renault, prominence as an exporter of vehicles and Peugot-Citroen, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, Daihatsu, automotive components. With exports expected to Tata, Mahindra, Proton and Porsche – import cars continue to rise, the sector’s contribution to GDP is into the country, and are represented by marketing expected to continue to increase in significance. offices. In total, it is thought that there are about 25 vehicle importers and assemblers in South Africa. Vehicle distribution The vehicle manufacturers, importers and assemblers are supported by about 350 local In 2004, South Africa had an estimated motor vehicle automotive component manufacturers, together distribution of one vehicle for every 11 people, giving with about 150 others who supply the industry on the country the fourth-highest ‘autodensity’ of all a nonexclusive basis; some 4 600 garages and fuel African countries, with only Libya, Reunion and the stations, most of which have workshop facilities, and Seychelles having preferable vehicle distribution a further 3 300 specialist repairers; 1 150 new-car levels. In some African countries, the distribution dealerships holding specific franchises; an estimated of motor vehicles is as sparse as one vehicle for 800 used-vehicle outlets; 450 specialist tyre dealers every 134 people (Equatorial Guinea), one vehicle and retreaders; 400 engine reconditioners; 80 for every 764 people (Ghana), and one vehicle for vehicle body builders; 650 parts dealers; and about every 2 252 people (Zambia). 280 farm vehicle and equipment suppliers. Based on this, and on future growth projections for the subcontinent, there is considerable potential for Size of the market growth in the automotive industry, and South Africa is in a strong long-term strategic position to take The total number of vehicles operating in South advantage of this. Africa in 2006 is estimated at 8,54-million, of which 5,15-million are passenger cars and minibuses. Structure of the market Total new vehicle sales in South Africa amounted to 714 315 in 2006, including passenger cars, light Seven global car manufacturers – BMW, commercial vehicles (LCVs), and medium and DaimlerChrysler, General Motors, Ford, Nissan/Fiat, heavy commercial vehicles (MCVs/HCVs). This Toyota and Volkswagen – assemble cars in South was the first time South Africa’s new vehicle sales Africa and, since the 1980s, most have extended surpassed the 700 000 mark, and was 15,7% up on their operations to include the assembly of medium new vehicle sales in 2005. and heavy commercial vehicles. Car sales in 2006, at 481 558 vehicles, were up on The manufacturing companies are concentrated in the previous year, when 419 868 vehicles were sold, three regions of the country. The first region, which and show significant growth since 1995, when the covers the Gauteng province, and a portion of the total local car market stood at 255 817 vehicles. North West province, is home to three of the country’s original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) – BMW, It is believed that the car market has been supported Nissan (including Fiat assembly operations), and over this period by strong economic fundamentals, Ford – and about 50% of the country’s components as well as by the fact that car ownership levels in industry. The second region, in the Eastern Cape, South Africa are quite low, providing an untapped houses the manufacturing operations of General demand potential to exploit. Further, 50% of the Motors, Volkswagen and DaimlerChrysler, and country’s passenger vehicles are older than ten about 30% of the component manufacturing sector. years, meaning that a large percentage of vehicles The third major region, in the KwaZulu-Natal cities of are nearing the age of replacement. Small lower- www.researchchannel.co.za 4 Automotive July 2007 priced vehicles still comprise a major portion of new- manufacturing industry, 78 500 in the automotive vehicle sales, although consumers are showing components industry, almost 7 000 in the tyre trade, increasingly sophisticated preferences.