Climate Change Impacts

European Long-Term Ecosystem and Socio-Ecological Research Infrastructure

D09.2 Climate change impacts: Meta-analysis on climate change impacts on eLTER-sites across Europe Authors: Martin Musche & Stefan Klotz Lead partner for deliverable: UFZ Other partners involved: EAA, TUC, CNR, SLU, NERC, VLO-INBO, UHEL, BGU, LUBI-IBUL, ZRC-SAZU

H2020-funded project, GA: 654359, INFRAIA call 2014-2015

Start date of project: 01 June 2015 Duration: 48 months

Dissemination level

PU Public X

PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services)

CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)

CI Classified, as referred to in Commission Decision 2001/844/EC

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Version control Edited by Date of revision

Created – V1 Martin Musche 15 December 2017

Internal review, minor edits Herbert Haubold 10 July 2018

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Publishable Executive Summary Climate change is considered as one of the major drivers of ecosystem change. To investigate the effects of climate change and its complex interactions with other drivers well designed research infrastructures are needed. The aim of the present work was to get an overview on research papers based on data from the eLTER site network which deal with climate change related topics. Specifically, it was investigated whether signals of climate change can be found in long-term data series. Further, the representativeness of research regarding the coverage of different ecosystem components was evaluated using the concept of ecosystem integrity. The representation of major habitat types and European biogeographic regions was assessed as well. Information on relevant literature was gathered from scientific data bases, websites and from eLTER partners and site managers. In total 211 references were identified that addressed topics related to climate change. Of these studies 59 investigated whether signals of climate change can be found in long-term data series. This subset of research papers was investigated in more detail. Climate change effects on ecosystems were found in about three quarter of the investigated papers. Apart from climate, other drivers of ecosystem change were considered by half of the studies. Although these drivers caused significant effects in ecosystems, their presence did not affect the effects of climate. There was considerable heterogeneity among studies regarding the ecosystem components under study. While there was a balance between abiotic and biotic ecosystem components there were obvious imbalances between the different categories of the ecosystem integrity framework. In particular the response of processes related to the energy budget of ecosystems to climate change has hardly been investigated. Further bias was related to the representation of habitats and biological groups. A clear focus on freshwater habitats and forests resulted in a prevalence of (aquatic) invertebrates and vascular plants. Although the main European bio-geographic regions were covered, there were substantial gaps in the Mediterranean and continental regions as well as in parts of the alpine bio-geographic region. A clear shortcoming is the focus of most studies on single sites or restricted areas. One aim for the further development of the eLTER site network should be to facilitate multi- site and multi-driver studies over large spatial scales. A key issue is the establishment of an agreed list of key parameters which should be measured across a set of master sites that cover major European climatic gradients and habitat types (a set of standard observations will be established by the currently prepared eLTER RI). To widen the spatial scale, inter- operability with related ecosystem research infrastructures needs to further be improved. Given the expertise for experimental work across the network, research infrastructure development should be targeted at better combining observational and experimental approaches. Finally, conditions to investigate the societal consequences of climate change need to be further developed.

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Contents

1 Introduction ...... 5 2 Methods ...... 5 2.1 Compilation of literature from eLTER – sites related to climate change ...... 5 2.2 Categorization of papers ...... 6 2.3 Analysis...... 7 3 Results ...... 7 3.1 Overview ...... 7 3.2 Analysis of observational studies examining long-term impacts of climate change ... 8 3.2.1 Climate change impacts ...... 8 3.2.2 Representativeness of studies ...... 10 4 Discussion ...... 17 5 References ...... 19 6 Appendix ...... 22 6.1 Compilation of literature on climate change related topics from the eLTER site network ...... 22 6.1.1 Austria ...... 22 6.1.2 Belgium ...... 24 6.1.3 Czech Republic ...... 25 6.1.4 Finland ...... 25 6.1.5 France ...... 27 6.1.6 Germany ...... 30 6.1.7 Greece ...... 31 6.1.8 Hungary ...... 31 6.1.9 Israel ...... 32 6.1.10 Italy ...... 32 6.1.11 Latvia ...... 34 6.1.12 Serbia ...... 34 6.1.13 Slovakia ...... 35 6.1.14 Slovenia ...... 35 6.1.15 Spain ...... 36 6.1.16 Sweden ...... 38 6.1.17 UK ...... 40 6.1.18 ICP Forests ...... 46

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1 Introduction

Climate change represents one of the major drivers of ecosystem change (Settele et al. 2014). Processes such as temperature increase, alteration of precipitation patterns, and the loss of snow and ice have proven effects on a wide range of ecosystem properties, from small scale physiological processes up to major biogeochemical cycles. Recent assessments conclude that all major European ecosystems are under pressure from climate change and climate induced changes will continue in the future even under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios (EEA, 2017). To investigate recent and future impacts of climate change on ecosystems and social – ecological systems sophisticated infrastructures for environmental research and monitoring are indispensable. Ideally such research infrastructures are distributed over appropriate large spatial scales, operate over long time periods, cover the main habitat types and take measurements that are standardized and allow for joint data analyses across different research infrastructure networks. The European Long-Term Ecosystem Research Network (LTER-Europe) and the European Critical Zone Observatories (CZO) community collaborate in the EU funded project eLTER H2020 (http://www.lter-europe.net/elter) in order to advance the existing network of research sites and socio-ecological research platforms. Improving the ability of the existing site network to better capture the impacts of climate change at the macroscale represents a major aspect of this work. Previous work has already demonstrated the value of the International Long-Term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) for addressing climate change related topics (Vihervaara et al. 2013). The main aims of the present study are (i) to evaluate to which extent research infrastructures and data from eLTER-sites have been used to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, (ii) to summarize the main scientific findings, (iii) to evaluate the representativeness of existing studies and (iv) to formulate conclusions for the further development of the site network.

2 Methods

2.1 Compilation of literature from eLTER – sites related to climate change

A literature search was performed to identify any peer-reviewed papers related to climate change which were published using data from the eLTER site network. First, publicly available sources were scanned for relevant literature. These included web sites and publication data bases of eLTER sites and national LTER-networks, ISI Web of Science, and websites of research and infrastructure networks related to eLTER such as the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) and the International Co- operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). Comprehensive data bases were searched using the following key words related to climate change research: climate, warming, temperature, precipitation, rain, snow, ice, wind, storm, extreme events, drought, and heat. Based on this literature search a draft bibliography was compiled and circulated among eLTER partners and site owners for additions and corrections.

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2.2 Categorization of papers

First, all papers were checked manually to assess their relevance. Papers that did not address topics related to climate change were removed from the compilation. The resulting updated bibliography that was used in the subsequent process contained 211 papers (Appendix 6.1). During this process it became clear that the available literature comprises a broad range of different topics and heterogeneous methodological approaches. To facilitate their analysis, papers were grouped according to whether they address (i) recent (Category 1) or projected (Category 2) trends in ecosystem response to climate change or (ii) the mechanisms underlying the response of ecosystems to climate change either by using observations (Category 3), experiments (Category 4) or models (Category 5, see conceptual Figure 1 for details). While studies assigned to categories 1 and 2 investigate long-term trends in ecosystem change, studies belonging to categories 3, 4 and 5 focus on ecosystem response to short-term variability in climatic conditions. As the main aim of this work was to evaluate the capability of the eLTER site network to measure climate change impacts in the long term further analysis was focused on observational studies assigned to category 1 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Criteria for assigning papers to different categories

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2.3 Analysis

Effects of climate change

First, studies assigned to category 1 were examined according to the overall signal of climate change. Effects were categorized on a simple presence/ absence scale. The presence of an effect was assumed if it was statistically significant in the original study and if it was attributed to climate change by the authors. Further, it was investigated whether the consideration of other drivers of ecosystem change may influence the likelihood of finding a signal of climate change. For this purpose, Fisher´s Exact Test was applied.

Representativeness of studies

Representativeness of studies was assessed in different ways. First, it was investigated to what extent the response variables comprise the biotic or abiotic environment. Second, it was assessed whether studies dealing with the biotic environment deal with the response of plants vs. animals to climate change. Special emphasis was given to the representation of biological groups and habitats. For the latter purpose habitats were assigned to EUNIS-codes (European Environment Agency, http://eunis.eea.europa.eu/). Further, the response variables of the climate change impact studies were assigned to the categories of the Ecosystem Integrity (EI) framework. Ecosystem integrity describes the self- organizing capacity of ecosystems and their ability to respond to non-specific ecological risks (Müller 2005). The EI-framework distinguishes between ecosystem structures and processes as two main properties of ecosystems. Biodiversity and the heterogeneity of the abiotic environment constitute the structural component while energy, water and matter budgets determine ecosystem processes. Here, a modified version of the EI-concept was used that has been proposed by Haase et al. (2018) to serve as a framework for indicator selection and data integration within LTER. Spatial representativeness was assessed with respect to the coverage of national LTER- networks that form the eLTER site network and the European biogeographic regions as defined by the European Environment Agency.

3 Results

3.1 Overview

A total number of 211 research papers addressing topics related to the response of ecosystems to climate change were identified. Of these papers 85 dealt with long-term trends in ecosystem response to climate change, 123 investigated the underlying mechanisms (response to short-term variability), and three papers investigated both, long- term impacts and mechanisms (Figure 2). Of the 85 papers addressing climate change effects in the long term, 29 dealt with projected changes using models, 57 studies searched for recent trends in time series data whereas two studies used combined approaches (Figure 3). Studies applying observational approaches were in the focus of this study and were analyzed in more detail in the following chapters.

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Figure 2. Studies investigating long-term trends in ecosystem response to climate change, the underlying mechanisms, or both.

Figure 3. Approaches used to investigate long-term trends in ecosystem response to climate change (A) and the mechanisms underlying ecosystem response (B).

3.2 Analysis of observational studies examining long-term impacts of climate change

3.2.1 Climate change impacts

Of the 59 studies addressing long-term effects of climate change on ecosystems (Category A in Figure 1) 50 (85%) found a significant response of ecosystem components to changing climate (Figure 4). Due to the limited data availability and pronounced data heterogeneity a deeper analysis of climate change effects on different ecosystem components, habitat types or taxa was not possible. It can only be ascertained that effects in aquatic/marine ecosystems were just as often observed as in terrestrial systems (85% and 83% of studies,

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respectively). Other drivers than climate change were considered in the data analysis by 28 studies (47%). The input of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus in both, terrestrial (Dirnböck et al. 2014), and aquatic ecosystems (Taranu et al. 2015) was studied most frequently. Other drivers that were in the focus of climate impact studies included acidification (Hruska et al. 2009), fishing (Guilizzoni et al. 2012), land use/ land management (Yallop et al. 2010) and mining (Stella et al. 2013). Of the 28 studies that also considered other drivers 21 (75%) found a significant effect of climate change (Figure 5) whereas in studies that did not consider other drivers climate change effects tended to be more prevalent (29 out of 31 studies; 94 %). However, this difference was not statistically significant (Fisher´s Exact test, p=0.07).

Figure 4. Detection of climate change effects in ecosystems by observational long-term studies.

Figure 5. Observation of climate change effects in ecosystems if other drivers were considered in the analysis (A), or not considered (B).

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3.2.2 Representativeness of studies

Ecosystem components and habitat types Biotic and abiotic ecosystem components were equally well investigated by climate change impact studies conducted at eLTER sites (Figure 6). Likewise, plants and animals were equally well represented (Figure 7). While vascular plants were the main study objects in terrestrial habitats lower plants such as algae were mainly investigated in aquatic habitats. Vertebrates were less frequently examined than invertebrates and the latter were mainly subject of studies in aquatic habitats (macroinvertebrates). Almost all studies investigating the response biological ecosystem components to climate change comprised more than one species (only 2 single-species studies). There was a wide range of topics concerning the response of organisms to climate change including physiology and development (Latte et al. 2016), population dynamics (Korpela et al. 2013), species interactions, community composition (Jucevica & Melecis 2006) and species distributions (Bässler et al. 2013). A more differentiated pattern arose when the response variables of the respective papers were assigned to the different categories of the Ecological Integrity framework (Table 1). Ecosystem structures (52 studies) were investigated more frequently than ecosystem processes (15 studies). Within ecosystem structures, biotic diversity (33 studies) was the main topic while only 19 studies dealt with abiotic heterogeneity. While there was a balance between Fauna and Flora within biotic diversity, most studies that considered abiotic heterogeneity were focused on topics related to water (e.g. water quality, water temperature). Similarly, topics related to the water budget were dominating studies dealing with the impact of climate change on ecosystem processes. Table 1 provides examples for each category. In some cases a definite attribution of response variables was to the categories of the Ecological Integrity framework was not possible. For example, phenology of organisms does not represent a component of biotic diversity but it was assigned to either Flora or Fauna for pragmatic reasons. There was a strong bias towards aquatic habitats whereas many terrestrial habitats were underrepresented (Figure 8). Among terrestrial habitats forests were most frequently studied (14 studies) whereas cultivated habitats were hardly considered (1 study). The low representation of marine habitats is due to the fact that the focus of eLTER (in contrast to the LTER) is on terrestrial and aquatic habitats.

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Figure 6. Observational studies investigating the impact of climate change on biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems.

Figure 7. Main taxonomical units covered by observational studies investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.

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Table 1 Assignment of response variables from climate change impact studies to the categories of the Ecosystem Integrity Concept

Number EI EI components and basic of Example component indicators studies Tree line position in mountains Habitats 2 (Ameztegui et al. 2016) Soil moisture (Jucevica & Soils 1 Abiotic Melecis 2006) heterogeneity Surface water temperature of Water 16 lakes (O'Reilly et al., 2015)

Air* 0

Ecosystem Composition of structures macroinvertebrate (Floury et al. Fauna 16 2013) and fish (Jeppesen et al. 2012) communities Species richness (Rose et al. Biotic diversity Flora 11 2016) and composition (Helm et al. 2017) of plant communities Within- habitat 0 structure Heat content of deep lakes Energy budget 1 (Ambrosetti & Barbanti 1999) Export of nitrogen (Rogora 2007) or dissolved organic carbon Ecosystem Matter budget 4 (Yallop et al. 2010) by streams processes and rivers Flood frequency (Machado et al. Water budget 10 2011; Wilhelm et al. 2012), runoff (Lamacova et al. 2014) *Long-term changes in meteorological variables (climate change) were not in the focus of the present study. However, meteorological variables were often measured to explain ecosystem change.

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Figure 8. EUNIS-habitats covered by observational studies investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.

Representativeness in space All bio-geographic regions as defined by the European Environment Agency (EEA) were covered by observational climate change impact studies (Figure 9). Nevertheless, considering the area of the regions there are considerable gaps, in particular in the mediterranean and continental bio-geographic region as well as in the Scandinavian part of the alpine bio-geographic region.

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Most national LTER-networks were covered by at least one observational climate change impact study. However, from

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Figure 10 it becomes obvious that there are considerable gaps in central and eastern and south-eastern Europe. The majority of studies (58%) were conducted at one site only (Figure 11A). Multi-site studies were mainly confined to a single national LTER-network (Figure 12). The number of sites included in multi-site studies ranged from 3 to 6000 (median 24). Only a minority of them were restricted to the LTER-network whereas about 80% included non-LTER sites (Figure 11B). These sites often belonged to other research networks including Critical Zones Observatories, Global Lake Temperature Collaboration (GLTC), GLORIA, ICP Forests, ICP Waters, and ERB Euro-Mediterranean Network of Experimental and Representative Basins.

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Figure 9. Coverage of European bio-geographical regions by observational climate change impact studies. Source of the map: European Environment Agency (EEA) Document ID: eLTER D 9.2 Climate Change Impacts © eLTER consortium

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Figure 10. Coverage of national LTER-networks by observational climate change impact studies.

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Figure 11. Number of single- and multi-site observational climate change impact studies (A) and the representation of other research networks in multi-site studies (B).

Figure 12. Number of national LTER-networks comprised by multi-site observational studies investigating the impact of climate change on ecosystems

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4 Discussion

General remarks As mentioned above papers on climate change related topics were very heterogeneous regarding ecosystem components, spatial and temporal scales and the approaches chosen. This heterogeneity caused difficulties when assigning single papers to certain categories (Figure 1). Short-term observational studies, e.g. those investigating the response of ecosystem components to extreme events, were assigned to the category “mechanisms” as it is difficult to attribute single short-term events to climate change. Nevertheless, many patterns revealed by short-term studies might reflect climate warming as it may alter the frequency and severity of short-term/ extreme events.

Signals of climate change The majority of observational studies found signals of climate change in long-term data series from eLTER sites. Due to the small sample size a deeper analysis of climate change impacts was not possible. When evaluating papers with respect to the presence of a climate signal we followed the opinion of the authors of the respective studies. However, confidence in detection of a signal and its attribution to climate change may be variable (see also (Settele et al. 2014). Nevertheless, the results indicate that climate warming is prevalent across habitat types, the biotic and abiotic environment and different organizational levels of biodiversity. The studies were not representatively selected as required for a true meta- analysis (e.g. by keyword search in scientific data bases) and they were restricted to a defined set of sites. Therefore, the results are not representative for evaluating climate change effects in general. They rather demonstrate the suitability and the potential of the eLTER site network for future investigations of this major driver. Roughly half of the studies considered other drivers than climate in their analyses such as nitrogen deposition or land use change. The inclusion of these drivers did not affect the general outcome with respect to climate. However, these drivers had significant effects on ecosystems as well. For example, the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen affected the composition of ground vegetation in European forests (Dirnböck et al. 2014). Community composition of aquatic organisms such as Cladocera (Alric et al. 2013) or Chironomidae (Floury et al. 2013) was affected by eutrophication and climate warming. These results emphasize the need for more multi-driver studies when examining long-term changes in ecosystems.

Implications for the further development of the eLTER site network The present study showed that the eLTER site network has the potential to enable long-term research on climate change impacts over large scales thereby considering a wide range of habitat types, ecosystem components and drivers of change. However, the analysis also revealed some shortcomings:

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• The response of some major ecosystem components according to the ecosystem integrity framework have not been studied • Only half of the papers are multi-driver studies • There is bias towards certain taxonomic groups and habitat types • Representativeness in space is limited • Most studies focus on single sites while there are few large-scale and multi-site studies

To make use of the full potential of the eLTER site network there need to be further improvements of research infrastructures. A further harmonization of measurements across the network represents a crucial precondition for future large-scale studies. One of the most important steps would be the establishment of an agreed list of key parameters which should be measured on a set of master sites. Key parameters should cover the main components of ecosystem integrity and consider major drivers of ecosystem change. A first set of key parameters has been proposed by Haase et al. (2017). The currently prepared eLTER RI will establish a set of standard observations. Representativeness of measurements in space needs to be increased. Master sites should cover main environmental gradients and habitat types. Most multi-site papers included sites from other networks. Thus, inter-operability with related environmental research infrastructures should be increased. This includes the further harmonization of parameters and methods and the development of tools for the integration and analysis of data from different sources. The present analysis only considered long-term observational work. Initial grouping of papers (see 2.2, Figure 1) indicated that eLTER-sites are also extensively used for experimental work. Given the expertise available at these sites, future work should combine (distributed) experimental work with long-term observation Apart from few exceptions (Forsius et al. 2013; Lamarque et al. 2014; Vihervaara et al. 2013) ecosystem services were almost not considered. Future development of the eLTER site network should, more than it currently already done, consider the social dimensions of climate change impacts.

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5 References

Alric, B. et al. (2013) Local forcings affect lake zooplankton vulnerability and response to climate warming. Ecology, 94(12), 2767-2780. Ambrosetti, W. & Barbanti, L. (1999) Deep water warming in lakes: an indicator of climate change. J Limnol 58, 1-9. Ameztegui, A. et al. (2016) Land-use legacies rather than climate change are driving the recent upward shift of the mountain tree line in the Pyrenees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25(3), 263-273. Bässler, C. et al. (2013) Insects Overshoot the Expected Upslope Shift Caused by Climate Warming. PloS ONE, 8(6). Delpierre, N. et al. (2012) Quantifying the influence of climate and biological drivers on the interannual variability of carbon exchanges in European forests through process-based modelling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 154, 99-112. Dirnböck, T. et al. (2014) Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Global Change Biology, 20(2), 429-440. EEA (2017) Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016. An indicator-based report (Vol. 1/2017). Luxembourg: European Environment Agency. Floury, M et al. (2013) Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors. Global Change Biology, 19(4), 1085-1099. Forsius, M. et al. (2013) Impacts and adaptation options of climate change on ecosystem services in Finland: a model based study. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(1), 26-40. Foucreau, N. et al. (2014) Physiological and metabolic responses to rising temperature in Gammarus pulex (Crustacea) populations living under continental or Mediterranean climates. Comp Biochem Phys A 168, 69-75. Guilizzoni, P. et al. (2012) Ecological effects of multiple stressors on a deep lake (Lago Maggiore, Italy) integrating neo and palaeolimnological approaches. Journal of Limnology, 71(1), 1-22. Haase, P. et al. (2018) The next generation of site-based ecological monitoring: Linking Essential Biodiversity Variables and Ecosystem Integrity. Science of the Total Environment 613-614, 1376-1384. Helm, N. et al. (2017) Multiple environmental changes drive forest floor vegetation in a temperate mountain forest. Ecology and Evolution. doi: 10.1002/ece3.2801. Hruska, J. et al. (2009) Increased Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) in Central European streams is driven by reductions in ionic strength rather than climate change or decreasing acidity. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(12), 4320-4326.

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Jeppesen, E. et al. (2012) Impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes. Hydrobiologia, 694(1), 1-39. Jucevica, E. & Melecis, V. (2006) Global warming affect Collembola community: A long-term study. Pedobiologia, 50(2), 177-184. Kaloveloni, A. et al. (2015) Winners and losers of climate change for the genus Merodon (Diptera: Syrphidae) across the Balkan Peninsula. Ecological Modelling 313, 201–211.

Korpela, K. et al. (2013) Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles. Global Change Biology, 19(3), 697-710. Lamacova, A. et al. (2014) Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments. Soil and Water Research, 9(4), 169-181. Lamarque, P. et al. (2014) Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(38), 13751-13756. Latte, N. et al. (2016) Major Changes in Growth Rate and Growth Variability of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Related to Soil Alteration and Climate Change in Belgium. Forests, 7(8). Machado, M. J. et al. (2011) 500 Years of rainfall variability and extreme hydrological events in southeastern Spain drylands. Journal of Arid Environments, 75(12), 1244-1253. Müller, F. (2005) Indicating ecosystem and landscape organisation. Ecological Indicators, 5(4), 280-294. Pérez-Ramos, I.M. et al. (2017). Climate variability and community stability in Mediterranean shrublands: the role of functional diversity and soil environment Journal of Ecology. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12747. O'Reilly, C. M. et al. (2015). Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(24), 10773-10781. Rogora, M. (2007) Synchronous trends in N-NO3 export from N-saturated river catchments in relation to climate. Biogeochemistry, 86(3), 251-268. Rose, R. et al. (2016) Evidence for increases in vegetation species richness across UK Environmental Change Network sites linked to changes in air pollution and weather patterns. Ecological Indicators, 68, 52-62. Settele, J. et al. (2014) Terrestrial and inland water systems. In Field, C.B. (Ed.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 411–484). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Stella, J. C. et al. (2013) Climate and local geomorphic interactions drive patterns of riparian forest decline along a Mediterranean Basin river. Geomorphology, 202, 101-114. Taranu, Z. E. et al. (2015) Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate- subarctic lakes during the Anthropocene. Ecology Letters, 18(4), 375-384.

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Vihervaara, P et al. (2013) Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(1), 53-66. Wilhelm, B. et al. (2012) Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record. Climatic Change, 113(3-4), 563-581. Yallop, A. R. et al. (2010) Increases in humic dissolved organic carbon export from upland peat catchments: the role of temperature, declining sulphur deposition and changes in land management. Climate Research, 45(1), 43-56.

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6 Appendix

6.1 Compilation of literature on climate change related topics from the eLTER site network

The appendix shows all references dealing with climate change related topics ordered by site. Only peer-reviewed papers were considered. eLTER – sites without any publication are not shown.

6.1.1 Austria

6.1.1.1 Zöbelboden

Helm, N. et al. (2017) Multiple environmental changes drive forest floor vegetation in a temperate mountain forest. Ecology and Evolution 7, 2155-2168. Dirnböck, T. et al. (2016) Impacts of management and climate change on nitrate leaching in a forested karst area. Journal of Environmental Management 165, 243-252. Hartmann, A. et al. (2016). Model-aided quantification of dissolved carbon and nitrogen release after windthrow disturbance in an Austrian karst system. Biogeosciences 13(1), 159- 174. Thom, D. et al. (2016) The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 28-38. Bernhardt-Römermann, M. et al. (2015) Drivers of temporal changes in temperate forest plant diversity vary across spatial scales. Global Change Biology 21, 3726–3737. Kobler, J. et al. (2015) Effects of stand patchiness due to windthrow and bark beetle abatement measures on soil CO2 efflux and net ecosystem productivity of a managed temperate mountain forest. European Journal of Forest Research 134, 683-692. Dirnböck, T. et al. (2014) Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Global Change Biology 20, 429-440. Jost, G. et al. (2011) Nitrogen leaching of two forest ecosystems in a Karst watershed. Water Air and Soil Pollution 218, 633–649.

6.1.1.2 Sonnblick Observatory

Simic, S. et al. (2011) Factors affecting UV irradiance at selected wavelengths at Hoher Sonnblick. Atmospheric Research 101, 869-878. Schoener, W. et al. (2009) Long term trend of snow depth at Sonnblick (Austrian Alps) and its relation to climate change. Hydrological Processes 23, 1052-1063.

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Weber, R. O. et al. (1997) 20th-century changes of temperature in the mountain regions of Central Europe. Climatic Change 36, 327-344.

6.1.1.3 Stubai

Hasibeder, R. et al. (2015) Summer drought alters carbon allocation to roots and root respiration in mountain grassland. New Phytologist 205, 1117-1127. Leitinger, G. et al. (2015) Impact of droughts on water provision in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps. Ecohydrology 8, 1600-1613. Fuchslueger, L. et al. (2014) Experimental drought reduces the transfer of recently fixed plant carbon to soil microbes and alters the bacterial community composition in a mountain meadow. New Phytologist 201, 916-927. Fuchslueger, L. et al. (2014) Effects of drought on nitrogen turnover and abundances of ammonia-oxidizers in mountain grassland. Biogeosciences 11, 6003-6015. Seeber, J. et al. (2012) Drought-induced reduction in uptake of recently photosynthesized carbon by springtails and mites in alpine grassland. Soil Biol Biochem 55, 37-39. Brilli, F. et al. (2011) Leaf and ecosystem response to soil water availability in mountain grasslands. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 1731-1740. Teuling, A. J. et al. (2010) Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves. Nat Geosci 3, 722-727. Stoy, P. C. et al. (2009) Biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 in relation to climate: a cross-biome analysis across multiple time scales. Biogeosciences 6, 2297-2312. Teuling, A. J. et al. (2009) A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 36, Artn L0240410.

6.1.1.4 Mondsee Limnological Institute

O'Reilly, C.M. et al. (2015) Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters 42(24), 10773-10781. Dokulil, M. T. (2014) Predicting summer surface water temperatures for large Austrian lakes in 2050 under climate change scenarios. Hydrobiologia 731, 19-29. Dokulil, M. T. & Teubner, K. (2012) Deep living Planktothrix rubescens modulated by environmental constraints and climate forcing. Hydrobiologia 698, 29-46. Livingstone, D. M. & Dokulil, M. T. (2001) Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnol Oceanogr 46, 1220-1227.

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6.1.1.5 LTSER Platform Tyrolean Alps (TA)

Gottfried, M. et al. (2011) Coincidence of the alpine-nival ecotone with the summer snowline. Environ Res Lett 6 (1). Pauli, H. et al. G. (2007) Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria. Global Change Biology 13, 147-156.

6.1.2 Belgium

6.1.2.1 Brasschaat

Wei, S.H. et al. (2014) Data-based perfect-deficit approach to understanding climate extremes and forest carbon assimilation capacity. Environ Res Lett 9(6), Artn 065002. Mahecha, M. D. et al. (2010) Global Convergence in the Temperature Sensitivity of Respiration at Ecosystem Level. Science 329, 838-840.

6.1.2.2 Groenendaal - Zoniën forest

Penninckx, V. et al. (1999) Ring width and element concentrations in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from a periurban forest in central Belgium. Forest Ecology and Management 113, 23-33. Latte, N. et al. (2016) Major changes in growth rate and growth variability of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) related to soil alteration and climate change in Belgium. Forests 7, 174.

6.1.2.3 Gontrode - Aalmoeseneie forest

Caron, M. M. et al. (2015) Divergent regeneration responses of two closely related tree species to direct abiotic and indirect biotic effects of climate change. Forest Ecology and Management 342, 21-29. De Frenne, P. et al. (2015) Light accelerates plant responses to warming. Nature Plants 15110, doi: 10.1038/NPLANTS.2015.110. Maes, S.L. et al. (2014) Effects of enhanced nitrogen inputs and climate warming on a forest understorey plant assessed by transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient. Plant Ecology 215, 899-910. De Frenne, P. et al. (2012) The response of forest plant regeneration to temperature variation along a latitudinal gradient. Ann Bot-London 109, 1037-1046. De Frenne, P. et al. (2011) Temperature effects on forest herbs assessed by warming and transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient. Global Change Biology 17, 3240-3253. Document ID: eLTER D 9.2 Climate Change Impacts © eLTER consortium

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De Frenne, P. et al. (2010) Significant effects of temperature on the reproductive output of the forest herb Anemone nemorosa L. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 809-817.

6.1.3 Czech Republic

6.1.3.1 Lysina & Pluhuv Bor catchments

Lamacova, A. et al. (2014) Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments. Soil Water Res 9, 169-181. Benčoková, A. et al. (2011) Future and recent changes in flow patterns in the Czech headwater catchments. Bodenkultur 62, 17–22. Bencokova, A. et al. (2011) Modeling anticipated climate change impact on biogeochemical cycles of an acidified headwater catchment. Appl Geochem 26, S6-S8. Bencokova, A. et al. (2011) Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments. Climate Research 49, 1-15. Hruska, J. et al. (2009) Increased Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) in Central European Streams is Driven by Reductions in Ionic Strength Rather than Climate Change or Decreasing Acidity. Environ Sci Technol 43, 4320-4326.

6.1.4 Finland

6.1.4.1 Lammi

Jylhä, K. et al. (2014) Climate variability and trends in the Valkea-Kotinen region,southern Finland: comparisons between the past, current and projected climates. Boreal Environment Research 19, 4-30. Forsius, M. et al. (2013) Impacts and adaptation options of climate change on ecosystem services in Finland: a model based study. Curr Opin Env Sust 5, 26-40. Korpela, K. et al. (2013) Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles. Global Change Biology 19, 697-710. Jeppesen, E. et al. (2012) Impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes. Hydrobiologia 694, 1-39. Forsius, M. et al. (2010) Physical and chemical consequences of artificially deepened thermocline in a small humic lake - a paired whole-lake climate change experiment. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 14, 2629-2642. Verta, M. et al. (2010) Climate induced thermocline change has an effect on the methyl mercury cycle in small boreal lakes. Science of the Total Environment 408, 3639-3647.

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Saloranta, T. et al. (2009) Impacts of projected climate change on thermodynamics of a shallow and deep lake in Finland: Model simulations and Bayesian uncertainty analysis. Hydrology Research 40, 234-248. Ilus, E. & Keskitalo, J. (2008) The response of phytoplankton to increase temperature in the Loviisa archipelago, Gulf of Finland. Boreal Environment Research 13, 503-516. Blenckner, T. et al. (2007) Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta- analysis. Global Change Biology 13, 1314-1326. Järvinen, M. et al. (2006) Variations in phytoplankton assemblage in relation to environmental and climatic variation in a boreal lake. Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie 29, 1841-1844. Arvola, L. & Järvinen, M. (2004) Preface: Changing climate and northern aquatic ecosystems. Boreal Environment Research 9, 357. Arvola, L. et al. (2004) The effect of climate and landuse on TOC concentrations and loads in Finnish rivers. Boreal Environment Research 9, 381-387. Kankaala, P. et al. (2002) Changes in nutrient retention capacity of boreal aquatic ecosystems under climate warming: a simulation study. Hydrobiologia 469, 67-76. Ojala, A. et al. (2002) Growth response of Equisetum fluviatile to elevated CO2 and temperature. Environ Exp Bot 47, 157-171. Kankaala, P. et al. (2000) Response of littoral vegetation on climate warming in the boreal zone; an experimental simulation. Aquat Ecol 34, 433-444. Elo, A.-R. et al. (1998) The effects of climate change on the temperature conditions of lakes. Boreal Environment Research 3, 137-150. Kankaala, P. et al. (1997) Changes in water chemistry and macrophyte and algal communities in experimental ponds simulating elimate warming in the boreal area. Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie 26, 496-501.

6.1.4.2 Northern Häme

Kulmala, M. et al. (2014) CO2-induced terrestrial climate feedback mechanism: From carbon sink to aerosol source and back. Boreal Environment Research 19, 122-131. Paasonen, P. et al. (2013) Warming-induced increase in aerosol number concentration likely to moderate climate change. Nat Geosci 6, 438-442. Delpierre, N. et al. (2012) Quantifying the influence of climate and biological drivers on the interannual variability of carbon exchanges in European forests through process-based modelling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 154, 99-112. Duursma, R. A. et al. (2009) Contributions of climate, leaf area index and leaf physiology to variation in gross primary production of six coniferous forests across Europe: a model-based analysis. Tree Physiol 29, 621-639.

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Hari, P. & Kulmala, M. (2008) Boreal Forest and Climate Change. Advances in Global Change Research 34, 1-582. Tunved, P. et al. (2008) The natural aerosol over Northern Europe and its relation to anthropogenic emissions - implications of important climate feedbacks. Tellus B 60, 473-484. Reichstein, M. et al. (2007) Reduction of ecosystem productivity and respiration during the European summer 2003 climate anomaly: a joint flux tower, remote sensing and modelling analysis. Global Change Biology 13, 634-651. Hänninen, H., Kolari, P. & Hari, P. (2005) Seasonal development of Scots pine under climatic warming: effects on photosynthetic production. Can J Forest Res 35, 2092-2099.

6.1.5 France

6.1.5.1 Zone Atelier Alpes

Jusselme, M.-D. et al. (2016) Variations in snow depth modify N-related soil microbial abundances and functioning during winter in subalpine grassland. Soil Biol Biochem 92, 27- 37. Carlson, B. Z. et al. (2015) Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities. Ann Bot-London 116, 1023-1034. Choler, P. (2015) Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration. Biogeosciences 12, 3885-3897. Leitinger, G. et al. (2015) Impact of droughts on water provision in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps. Ecohydrology 8, 1600-1613. Benot, M. L. et al. (2014) Stronger Short-Term Effects of Mowing Than Extreme Summer Weather on a Subalpine Grassland. Ecosystems 17, 458-472. Jung, V. et al. (2014) Intraspecific trait variability mediates the response of subalpine grassland communities to extreme drought events. Journal of Ecology 102, 45-53. Lamarque, P. et al. (2014) Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, 13751-13756. Engler, R. et al. (2011) 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe. Global Change Biology 17, 2330-2341.

6.1.5.2 Zone Atelier Arc Jurassien

Cupillard, C. et al. (2015) Changes in ecosystems, climate and societies in the Jura Mountains between 40 and 8 ka cal BP. Quaternary International 378, 40-72.

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Frossard, V. et al. (2014) Depth-specific responses of a chironomid assemblage to contrasting anthropogenic pressures: a palaeolimnological perspective from the last 150 years. Freshwater Biology 59, 26-40. Guelat, M. & Richard, H. (2014) Holocene environmental changes and human impact in the northern Swiss Jura as reflected by data from the Del,mont valley. Swiss Journal of Geosciences 107, 1-21. Marcisz, K. et al. (2014) Response of Sphagnum Peatland Testate Amoebae to a 1-Year Transplantation Experiment Along an Artificial Hydrological Gradient. Microbial Ecology 67, 810-818. Gavazov, K. S. et al. (2013) Dynamics of Forage Production in Pasture-woodlands of the Swiss Jura Mountains under Projected Climate Change Scenarios. Ecol Soc 18. Jassey, V. E. J. et al. (2013) Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions. Global Change Biology 19, 811-823. Jenny, J.-P. et al. (2013) A spatiotemporal investigation of varved sediments highlights the dynamics of hypolimnetic hypoxia in a large hard-water lake over the last 150 years. Limnol Oceanogr 58, 1395-1408. Magny, M. et al. (2013) Climate, vegetation and land use as drivers of Holocene sedimentation: A case study from Lake Saint-Point (Jura Mountains, eastern France). Holocene 23, 137-147. Peringer, A. et al. (2013) Past and future landscape dynamics in pasture-woodlands of the Swiss Jura Mountains under climate change. Ecol Soc 18, 11.

6.1.5.3 Zone Atelier Seine

Habets, F. et al. (2013) Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France. Climatic Change 121, 771 - 785. Howarth, R. et al. (2012) Nitrogen fluxes from the landscape are controlled by net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and by climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 10, 37 - 43. Ducharne, A. et al. (2011) Évolution potentielle du régime des crues de la Seine sous changement climatique. La Houille Blanche, 51 - 57. Ducharne, A. (2008) Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 12, 797-810. Ducharne, A. et al. (2007) Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes. The Science of the Total Environment 375, 292- 311.

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6.1.5.4 Zone Atelier Bassin du Rhone

Foucreau, N. et al. (2014) Physiological and metabolic responses to rising temperature in Gammarus pulex (Crustacea) populations living under continental or Mediterranean climates. Comp Biochem Phys A 168, 69-75. Alric, B. et al. (2013) Local forcings affect lake zooplankton vulnerability and response to climate warming. Ecology 94, 2767-2780. Foucreau, N. et al. (2013) Effect of Climate-Related Change in Vegetation on Leaf Litter Consumption and Energy Storage by Gammarus pulex from Continental or Mediterranean Populations. Plos One 8, e77242. Stella, J. C. et al. (2013) Climate and local geomorphic interactions drive patterns of riparian forest decline along a Mediterranean Basin river. Geomorphology 202, 101-114. Wilhelm, B. et al. (2013) Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north-west European Alps. J Quaternary Sci 28, 189-199. Jeppesen, E. et al. (2012) Impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes. Hydrobiologia 694, 1-39. Perrier, C. et al. (2012) Effects of temperature and food supply on the growth of whitefish Coregonus lavaretus larvae in an oligotrophic peri-alpine lake. Journal of Fish Biology 81, 1501-1513. Wilhelm, B. et al. (2012) Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record. Climatic Change 113, 563-581. Bouvy, M. et al. (2011) Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change. Environ Microbiol 13, 1842- 1857. Gallina, N. et al. (2011) Impacts of extreme air temperatures on cyanobacteria in five deep peri-Alpine lakes. J Limnol 70, 186-196. Gerdeaux, D. (2011) Does global warming threaten the dynamics of Arctic charr in Lake Geneva? Hydrobiologia 660, 69-78. Gillet, C. et al. (2011) Disruption of the secretion and action of 17,20 beta-dihydroxy-4- pregnen-3-one in response to a rise in temperature in the Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus. Consequences on oocyte maturation and ovulation. Gen Comp Endocr 172, 392-399. Bryhn, A. C. et al. (2010) Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget, France. Ecological Modelling 221, 1440-1450. Radojevic, B. et al. (2010) Assessing impact of global change on flood regimes. Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2, 167-179. Tadonleke, R. D. (2010) Evidence of warming effects on phytoplankton productivity rates and their dependence on eutrophication status. Limnol Oceanogr 55, 973-982.

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Piffady, J. et al. (2010) Quantifying the effects of temperature and flow regime on the abundance of 0+cyprinids in the upper River Rhone using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Freshwater Biology 55, 2359-2374. Mano, V. et al. (2009) Assessment of suspended sediment transport in four alpine watersheds (France): influence of the climatic regime. Hydrological Processes 23, 777-792. Daufresne, M. et al. (2007) Impacts of global changes and extreme hydroclimatic events on macroinvertebrate community structures in the French Rhone River. Oecologia 151, 544- 559. Massol, F. et al. (2007) The influence of trophic status and large-scale climatic change on the structure of fish communities in Perialpine lakes. Journal of Animal Ecology 76, 538-551. Molinero, J. C. et al. (2007) Decadal changes in water temperature and ecological time series in Lake Geneva, Europe - relationship to subtropical Atlantic climate variability. Climate Research 34, 15-23.

6.1.5.5 Zone atelier Loire

Bustillo, V. et al. (2014) A multimodel comparison for assessing water temperatures under changing climate conditions via the equilibrium temperature concept: case study of the Middle Loire River, France. Hydrological Processes 28, 1507-1524. Lavrieux, M. et al. (2013) 6700 yr sedimentary record of climatic and anthropogenic signals in Lake Aydat (French Massif Central). Holocene 23, 1317-1328. Miras, Y. et al. (2013) Holocene ecological trajectories in lake and wetland systems (Auvergne, France): a palaeoenvironmental contribution for a better assessment of ecosystem and land use’s viability in management strategies. Annali di Botanica 3, 127-133. Cubizolle, H. et al. (2012) Mire initiation, climatic change and agricultural expansion over the course of the Late-Holocene in the Massif Central mountain range (France): Causal links and implications for mire conservation. Quaternary International 251, 77-96. Floury, M. et al. (2013) Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors. Global Change Biology 19, 1085-1099.

6.1.6 Germany

6.1.6.1 NP Bayerischer Wald

Müller, J. et al. (2015) Increasing temperature may compensate for lower amounts of dead wood in driving richness of saproxylic beetles. Ecography 38, 499-509. Dirnböck, T. et al. (2014) Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Global Change Biology 20, 429-440.

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Hagen, R. et al. (2014) Synchrony in hunting bags: Reaction on climatic and human induced changes? Science of the Total Environment 468, 140-146. Cailleret, M. et al. (2014) Reduction in browsing intensity may not compensate climate change effects on tree species composition in the Bavarian Forest National Park. Forest Ecology and Management 328, 179-192. Bässler, C. et al. (2013) Insects Overshoot the Expected Upslope Shift Caused by Climate Warming. Plos One 8, e65842. Mehr, M. et al. (2011) Land use is more important than climate for species richness and composition of bat assemblages on a regional scale. Mamm Biol 76, 451-460. Bässler, C. et al. (2010) Estimation of the extinction risk for high-montane species as a consequence of global warming and assessment of their suitability as cross-taxon indicators. Ecological Indicators 10, 341-352.

6.1.6.2 TERENO Siptenfelde

Anis, M.R. & Rode, M. (2015) Effect of climate change on overland flow generation: a case study in central Germany. Hydrol Process 29, 2478-2490.

6.1.7 Greece

6.1.7.1 Koiliaris CZO

Gottfried, M. et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nat Clim Change 2, 111-115. Pauli, H. et al. (2012) Recent Plant Diversity Changes on Europe's Mountain Summits. Science 336, 353-355. Dimitriou, E. et al. (2009) Modelling hydrological characteristics of Mediterranean Temporary Ponds and potential impacts from climate change. Hydrobiologia 634, 195-208. Kazakis, G. (2007) Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine zone of the Lefka Ori, Crete. Biodiversity and Conservation 16, 1603-1615.

6.1.8 Hungary

6.1.8.1 Lake Balaton Site, Balaton

O'Reilly et al. (2015) Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 773-710.

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6.1.8.2 Kiskun

Kroel-Dulay, G. et al. (2015) Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems. Nat Commun 6, 6682. Vicca, S. et al. (2014) Can current moisture responses predict soil CO2 efflux under altered precipitation regimes? A synthesis of manipulation experiments. Biogeosciences 11, 2991- 3013.

6.1.9 Israel

6.1.9.1 Park Shaked (PSK)

Paz-Kagan, T. et al. (2014) Structural Changes of Desertified and Managed Shrubland Landscapes in Response to Drought: Spectral, Spatial and Temporal Analyses. Remote Sens-Basel 6, 8134-8164.

6.1.10 Italy

6.1.10.1 Renon BOL1

Granier, A. et al. (2007) Evidence for soil water control on carbon and water dynamics in European forests during the extremely dry year: 2003. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 153, 123-145. Teuling, A.J. et al. (2010), Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves. Nature Geoscience 3, 722–727.

6.1.10.2 Lago Maggiore

Manca, M. et al. (2015) Inter-annual climate variability and zooplankton: applying teleconnection indices to two deep subalpine lakes in Italy. Journal of Limnology 74, 123 - 132. O'Reilly et al. (2015) Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 773-710. Taranu, Z. E. et al. (2015). Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate subarctic lakes during the Anthropocene. Ecology Letters 18, 375 - 384. Guilizzoni, P et al. (2012) Ecological effects of multiple stressors on a deep lake (Lago Maggiore, Italy) integrating neo and palaeolimnological approaches. Journal of Limnology 71, 1 - 22.

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Jeppesen, E et al. (2012) Impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes. Hydrobiologia 694, 1 - 39. Morabito, G. et al. (2012) Resource ratio and human impact: how diatom assemblages in Lake Maggiore responded to oligotrophication and climatic variability. Hydrobiologia 698, 47 - 60. Manca, M. & Demott, W. R. (2009) Response of the invertebrate predator Bythotrephes to a climate-linked increase in the duration of a refuge from fish predation. Limnology and Oceanography 54, 2506 - 2512. Manca, M. et al. (2007) Shifts in phenology of Bythotrephes longimanus and its modern success in Lake Maggiore as a result of changes in climate and trophy. Journal of Plankton Research 29, 515 - 525. Manca, M. et al. (2007) Major changes in trophic dynamics in large, deep sub-alpine Lake Maggiore from 1940s to 2002: a high resolution comparative palaeo-neolimnological study. Freshwater Biology 52, 2256 - 2269. Rogora, M. (2007) Synchronous trends in N-NO3 export from N-saturated river catchments in relation to climate. Biogeochemistry 86, 251 - 268. Ambrosetti, W. & Barbanti, L. (1999) Deep water warming in lakes: an indicator of climate change. J Limnol 58, 1-9.

6.1.10.3 Golfo di Trieste

Cabrini, M. et al. (2012) Phytoplankton temporal changes in a coastal northern Adriatic site during the last 25 years. Estuar Coast Shelf S 115, 113-124. Cibic, T. et al. (2012) Benthic diatom response to changing environmental conditions. Estuar Coast Shelf S 115, 158-169. Giani, M. et al. (2012) Recent changes in the marine ecosystems of the northern Adriatic Sea. Estuar Coast Shelf S 115, 1-13. Conversi, A. et al. (2009) Gulf of Trieste: A changing ecosystem. J Geophys Res-Oceans 114. Kamburska, L. & Fonda-Umani, S. (2006) Long-term copepod dynamics in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea): recent changes and trends. Climate Research 31, 195-203.

6.1.10.4 Montagna di Torricchio

Wellstein, C. et al (2017) Effects of extreme drought on specific leaf area of grassland species: a meta-analysis of experimental studies in temperate and sub-Mediterranean systems. Global Change Biology 23, 2473-2481.

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Chelli, S. et al (2016) The response of sub-Mediterranean grasslands to rainfall variation is influenced by early season precipitation. Applied Vegetation Science 19, 611-619.

6.1.10.5 Appennino settentrionale

Ferrarini, A. et al. (2016) Planning for assisted colonization of plants in a warming world. Scientific Reports, 6, 28542. Abeli, T. et al. (2015) Geographical pattern in the response of the arctic-alpine Silene suecica (Cariophyllaceae) to the interaction between water availability and photoperiod. Ecological research, 30(2), 327-335. Orsenigo, S. et al. (2015) Effects of autumn and spring heat waves on seed germination of high mountain plants. PloS one, 10(7), e0133626. Abeli, T. et al. (2012) Response of alpine plant flower production to temperature and snow cover fluctuation at the species range boundary. Plant Ecology, 213(1), 1-13. Abeli, T. et al. (2012) Effect of the extreme summer heat waves on isolated populations of two orophitic plants in the north Apennines (Italy). Nordic Journal of Botany, 30(1), 109-115.

6.1.10.6 Lago Bidighinzu

Mariani, M.A. et al (2015) Effects of trophic status on microcystin production and the dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton assemblage of Mediterranean reservoirs. Scientific Reports 5, 1-16.

6.1.11 Latvia

6.1.11.1 Mazsalaca Pine

Jucevica, E. & Melecis, V. (2006) Global warming affect Collembola community: A long-term study. Pedobiologia 50, 177-184.

6.1.12 Serbia

6.1.12.1 Fruska gora National Park

Kaloveloni, A. et al. (2015) Winners and losers of climate change for the genus Merodon (Diptera: Syrphidae) across the Balkan Peninsula. Ecological Modelling 313, 201–211.

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6.1.13 Slovakia

6.1.13.1 Tatras - alpine summits

Gottfried, M. et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nat Clim Change 2, 111-115. Pauli, H. et al. (2012) Recent Plant Diversity Changes on Europe's Mountain Summits. Science 336, 353-355. Kanka, R. et al. (2005) Monitoring of climatic change impacts on alpine vegetation in the Tatry Mts - First approach. Ekologia-Bratislava 24, 411-418.

6.1.14 Slovenia

6.1.14.1 Postojna-Planina Cave System

Šebela, S. et al. (2015) Cave micro-climate and tourism : towards 200 years (1819-2015) at Postojnska jama (Slovenia). Cave and Karst Science 42, 78-85. Šebela, S. et al. (2014) Natural and anthropogenic influences on the year-round temperature dynamics of air and water in Postojna show cave, Slovenia. Tourism Management 40, 233- 243. Šebela, S. et al. (2013) Impact of peak period visits on the Postojna Cave (Slovenia) microclimate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 111, 51-64. Šebela, S. & Turk, J. (2011) Air temperature characteristics of the Postojna and Predjama cave systems. Acta Geographica Slovenica 51, 43-64. Šebela, S. & Turk, J. (2011) Local characteristics of Postojna Cave climate, air temperature, and pressure monitoring. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 105, 371-386. Mulec, J. et al. (2012) Prokaryotic and eukaryotic airborne microorganisms as tracers of microclimatic changes in the underground (Postojna Cave, Slovenia). Microbial Ecology, 64, 3, 654-667. Culver, D. C. & Pipan, T. (2010) Climate, abiotic factors, and the evolution of subterranean life. Acta Carsologica 39, 577-586.

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6.1.15 Spain

6.1.15.1 The Arid Iberian South East LTSER

Fernandez-Montes, S. & Rodrigo, F. S. (2015) Trends in surface air temperatures, precipitation and combined indices in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula (1970-2007). Climate Research 63, 43-60. Fernandez-Montes, S. et al. (2014) Circulation types and extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula in the transition seasons: Spatial links and temporal changes. Atmospheric Research 138, 41-58. Serrano-Ortiz, P. et al. (2014) Ecological functioning in grass-shrub Mediterranean ecosystems measured by eddy covariance. Oecologia 175, 1005-1017. Fernandez-Montes, S. et al. (2013) Spring and summer extreme temperatures in Iberia during last century in relation to circulation types. Atmospheric Research 127, 154-177. Cabello, J. et al. (2012) The role of vegetation and lithology in the spatial and inter-annual response of EVI to climate in drylands of Southeastern Spain. J Arid Environ 79, 76-83. Fernandez-Montes, S. et al. (2012) Wintertime circulation types over the Iberian Peninsula: long-term variability and relationships with weather extremes. Climate Research 53, 205-227. Rodrigo, F. S. et al. (2012) Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations. Clim Past 8, 117-133. Machado, M. J. et al. (2011) 500 Years of rainfall variability and extreme hydrological events in southeastern Spain drylands. J Arid Environ 75, 1244-1253. Rodrigo, F. S. (2010) Changes in the probability of extreme daily precipitation observed from 1951 to 2002 in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology 30, 1512-1525.

6.1.15.2 Aiguestortes / Lleida

Anadon-Rosell, A. et al. (2017) Four years of experimental warming do not modify the interaction between subalpine shrub species. Oecologia, online version, DOI: 10.1007/s00442-017-3830-7. Ameztegui, A. et al. (2016) Land-use legacies rather than climate change are driving the recent upward shift of the mountain tree line in the Pyrenees. Global Ecology and Biogeography 25, 263-273. Grau, O. et al. (2013) Similar tree seedling responses to shrubs and to simulated environmental changes at Pyrenean and subarctic treelines. Plant Ecology and Diversity 6(3- 4), 329-342. Lluent, A. et al. (2013) Phenology and seed setting success of snowbed plant species in contrasting snowmelt regimes in the Central Pyrenees. Flora 208, 220-231.

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Pardo, I. et al. (2013) Uncoupled changes in tree cover and field layer vegetation at two Pyrenean treeline ecotones over 11 years. Plant Ecology and Diversity 6(3-4), 355-364. Martínez, I. et al. (2012) Dispersal limitation and spatial scale affect model based projections of Pinus uncinata response to climate change in the Pyrenees. Global Change Biology 18 (5), 1714-1724. Batllori, E. & Gutiérrez, E. (2008) Regional treeline dynamics in response to global change in the Pyrenees. Journal of Ecology 96, 1275–1288. Pla, S & Catalan, J. (2005) Chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments reveal the submillennial winter/spring climate variability in the northwestern Mediterranean region throughout the Holocene. Climate Dynamics 24 (2-3), 263-278.

6.1.15.3 Doñana LTSER

Green, A.J. et al. (2017). Creating a safe operating space for wetlands in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15, 99-107. Pérez-Ramos, I.M. et al. (2017). Climate variability and community stability in Mediterranean shrublands: the role of functional diversity and soil environment Journal of Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365-2745.12747. De la Riva et al. (2017) The importance of functional diversity in the stability of Mediterranean shrubland communities after the impact of extreme climatic events. Journal of Plant Ecology 10, 281-293. Lloret, F. et al. (2016) Climatic events inducing die-off in Mediterranean shrublands: are species’ responses related to their functional traits? Oecologia 180, 961-973. Santoro, S. et al. (2016) Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change. Current Zoology. doi: 10.1093/cz/zow109. Espinar, J.L. et al. (2015). Linking Azolla filiculoides invasion to increased winter temperatures in Doñana marshland (SW Spain). Aquatic Invasions 10, 17-24.

6.1.15.4 Sierra Nevada / Granada

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6.1.16 Sweden

6.1.16.1 Gårdsjön

Dirnböck, T. et al. (2014) Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Global Change Biology 20, 429-440. Bringmark, E. et al. (2011) Long-term monitoring of scots pine litter decomposition rates throughout Sweden indicates formation of a more recalcitrant litter in the South. Ambio 40, 878-890. Futter, M. (2011) Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring sites with the Integrated Model for carbon, INCA-C. Ambio 40, 906-919.

6.1.16.2 Aneboda

Löfgren, S. et al. (2014) Long-term effects on nitrogen and benthic fauna of extreme weather events: Examples from two Swedish headwater streams. Ambio 43, 58-76. Dirnböck, T. et al. (2014) Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe. Global Change Biology 20, 429-440. Bringmark, E. et al. (2011) Long-term monitoring of scots pine litter decomposition rates throughout Sweden indicates formation of a more recalcitrant litter in the South. Ambio 40, 878-890. Futter, M. (2011) Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring sites with the Integrated Model for carbon, INCA-C. Ambio 40, 906-919.

6.1.16.3 Bergslagen LTSER

Vihervaara, P. et al. (2013) Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network. Curr Opin Env Sust 5, 53-66.

6.1.16.4 Gammtratten

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Futter, M. (2011) Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring sites with the Integrated Model for carbon, INCA-C. Ambio 40, 906-919.

6.1.16.5 Kindla, IM-site SE15

6.1.16.6 Erken Laboratory

Yang, Y. et al. (2016). Effects of winter severity on spring phytoplankton development in a temperate lake (Lake Erken, Sweden). Hydrobiologia 780, 47-57. Denfeld, B. (2016) Regional variability and drivers of below ice CO2 in boreal and subartic lakes. Ecosystems 19(3), 461-476. O'Reilly et al. (2015) Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 773-710. Sharma, S. et al. (2015) Globally distributed lake surface water temperatures collected in situ and by satellites; 1985-2009. Nature Scientific Data 2, 150008. Pierson D.C. et al. (2011) An automated method to monitor lake ice phenology. Limnology & Oceanography Methods 9, 74-83. Adrian, R. et al. (2009) Lakes as sentinels of climate change. Limnology and Oceanography 54, 2282-2297. Moss, B. et al. (2009) Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe: a primer for policy-makers. Freshwater Reviews 2, 103-130. Weyhenmeyer, G.A. (2009) Do warmer winters change variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions in Sweden? Aquatic Ecology 43, 653-659. Weyhenmeyer, G.A., & Karlsson, J. (2009) Nonlinear response of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in boreal lakes to increasing temperatures. Limnology and Oceanography 54, 2513-2519. Blenckner, T. (2008) Models as tools for understanding past, recent and future changes in large lakes. Hydrobiologia 599, 177-182.

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Blenckner, T. et al. (2007) Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta- analysis. Global Change Biology 13(7), 1314-1326. Malmaeus, J.M. et al. (2006) Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach. Ecological Modelling 190, 1-14. Pettersson, K. et al. (2003) Seasonality of chlorophyll and nutrients in Lake Erken - effects of weather conditions. Hydrobiologia 506. 75-81. Weyhenmeyer, G. et al. (1999) Changes of the Phytoplankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 44, 1788-1792.

6.1.17 UK

6.1.17.1 Environmental Change Network – general

Klapwijk, M. J. et al. (2010) Influence of experimental warming and shading on host- parasitoid synchrony. Global Change Biology 16, 102-112. Thackeray, S. J. et al. (2010) Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Global Change Biology 16, 3304-3313. Yallop, A. R. et al. (2010) Increases in humic dissolved organic carbon export from upland peat catchments: the role of temperature, declining sulphur deposition and changes in land management. Climate Research 45, 43-56. Morecroft, M. D. et al. (2008) Effects of climate and management history on the distribution and growth of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) in a southern British woodland in comparison to native competitors. Forestry 81, 59-74. Worrall, F. et al. (2008) Long-term records of dissolved organic carbon flux from peat- covered catchments: evidence for a drought effect? Hydrological Processes 22, 3181-3193. Smith, P. et al. (2007) Climate change cannot be entirely responsible for soil carbon loss observed in England and Wales, 1978-2003. Global Change Biology 13, 2605-2609. Worrall, F. et al. (2006) Trends in drought frequency - The fate of DOC export from British peatlands. Climatic Change 76, 339-359. Pepin, N. (1997) Scenarios of future climate change: effects on frost occurrence and severity in the maritime uplands of Northern England. Geografiska Annaler 79a, 121-137. Whittaker, J. B. & Tribe, N. P. (1996) An altitudinal transect as an indicator of responses of a spittlebug (Auchenorrhyncha: Cercopidae) to climate change. European Journal of Entomology 93, 319-324.

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6.1.17.2 Alice Holt

6.1.17.3 Cairngorms (ECN site)

Andrews, C. et al. (2016) Long-term observations of increasing snow cover in the western Cairngorms. Weather 71, 178-181. Monteith, D. et al. (2016) Trends and variability in weather and atmospheric deposition at UK Environmental Change network sites (1993-2012). Ecological Indicators 68, 21-35. Rose et al. (2016) Evidence for increases in vegetation species richness across UK Environmental Change Network sites linked to changes in air pollution and weather patterns. Ecological Indicators 68, 52-62. Vihervaara, P. et al. (2013) Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network. Curr Opin Env Sust 5, 53-66. Gottfried, M. et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nat Clim Change 2, 111-115. Pauli, H. et al. (2012) Recent Plant Diversity Changes on Europe's Mountain Summits. Science 336, 353-355. Naden, P. S. & Watts, C. D. (2001) Estimating climate-induced change in soil moisture at the landscape scale: An application to five areas of ecological interest in the UK. Climatic Change 49, 411-440.

6.1.17.4 Drayton

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Morecroft, M. D. et al. (2002) Effects of drought on contrasting insect and plant species in the UK in the mid-1990s. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11, 7-22.

6.1.17.5 Glensaugh

6.1.17.6 Hillsborough

6.1.17.7 Llyn Llagi

Evans, C. D. et al. (2006) Alternative explanations for rising dissolved organic carbon export from organic soils. Global Change Biology 12, 2044-2053.

6.1.17.8 Loch Leven

O'Reilly et al. (2015) Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 773-710.

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Carvalho, L. et al. (2012) Water quality of Loch Leven: responses to enrichment, restoration and climate change. Hydrobiologia 681, 35-47. Elliott, J. A. & May, L. (2008) The sensitivity of phytoplankton in Loch Leven (UK) to changes in nutrient load and water temperature. Freshwater Biology 53, 32-41.

6.1.17.9 Lochnagar

Evans, C. D. et al. (2006) Alternative explanations for rising dissolved organic carbon export from organic soils. Global Change Biology 12, 2044-2053.

6.1.17.10 Moor House - Upper Teesdale

Monteith, D. et al. (2016) Trends and variability in weather and atmospheric deposition at UK Environmental Change network sites (1993-2012). Ecological Indicators 68, 21-35. Rose et al. (2016) Evidence for increases in vegetation species richness across UK Environmental Change Network sites linked to changes in air pollution and weather patterns. Ecological Indicators 68, 52-62. Walker, T. N. et al. (2016) Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming. Global Change Biology 22, 1880-1889. Carroll, M. J. et al. (2015) Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change. Nat Commun 6. Walker, T. N. et al. (2015) Contrasting growth responses of dominant peatland plants to warming and vegetation composition. Oecologia 178, 141-151. Ward, S. E. et al. (2015) Vegetation exerts a greater control on litter decomposition than climate warming in peatlands. Ecology 96, 113-123. Ward, S. E. et al. (2013) Warming effects on greenhouse gas fluxes in peatlands are modulated by vegetation composition. Ecology Letters 16, 1285-1293. van Winden, J. F. et al. (2012) Temperature-Induced Increase in Methane Release from Peat Bogs: A Mesocosm Experiment. Plos One 7. Holden, J. & Rose, R. (2011) Temperature and surface lapse rate change: a study of the UK's longest upland instrumental record. International Journal of Climatology 31, 907-919. Briones, M. J. I. et al. (2010) Soil biology and warming play a key role in the release of 'old C' from organic soils. Soil Biol Biochem 42, 960-967. Burt, T. P. & Holden, J. (2010) Changing temperature and rainfall gradients in the British Uplands. Climate Research 45, 57-70.

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Heinemeyer, A. et al. (2010) The MILLENNIA peat cohort model: predicting past, present and future soil carbon budgets and fluxes under changing climates in peatlands. Climate Research 45, 207-226. Clark, J. M. et al. (2009) Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down. Global Change Biology 15, 794-807. Harrison, A. F. et al. (2008) Potential effects of climate change on DOC release from three different soil types on the Northern Pennines UK: examination using field manipulation experiments. Global Change Biology 14, 687-702. Worrall, F. et al. (2006) Long-term changes in hydrological pathways in an upland peat catchment - recovery from severe drought? J Hydrol 321, 5-20. Clark, J. M. et al. (2005) Influence of drought-induced acidification on the mobility of dissolved organic carbon in peat soils. Global Change Biology 11, 791-809. Morecroft, M. D. et al. (2002) Effects of drought on contrasting insect and plant species in the UK in the mid-1990s. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11, 7-22. Naden, P. S. & Watts, C. D. (2001) Estimating climate-induced change in soil moisture at the landscape scale: An application to five areas of ecological interest in the UK. Climatic Change 49, 411-440. Pepin, N. et al. (1999) Modeling lapse rates in the maritime uplands of northern England: Implications for climate change. Arct Antarct Alp Res 31, 151-164. Burt, T. et al. (1998) Long-term rainfall and streamflow records for north central England: putting the Environmental Change Network site at Moor House-Upper Teesdale in context. Hydrological Sciences Journal 43, 775-787. Whittaker, J. B. et al. (1998) Predicting the numbers of an insect (Neophilaenus lineatus: Homoptera) in a changing climate. Journal of Animal Ecology 67, 987-991. Garnett, M. H. et al. (1997) A long-term upland temperature record. No evidence for recent warming. Weather 52, 342-351.

6.1.17.11 North Wyke

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6.1.17.12 Porton Down

6.1.17.13 Rothamsted

6.1.17.14 Sourhope

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6.1.17.15 Windermere

George, D.G. et al. (2004) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the winter characteristics of Windermere (UK) and Paajarvi (Finland). Boreal Environment Research 9(5), 389-399. George D.G. et al. (2004) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of four lakes in the English Lake District. Freshwater Biology 49(6), 760-774.

6.1.17.16 Wytham

6.1.17.17 Yr Wyddfa/Snowdon

6.1.18 ICP Forests

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The following climate change related papers used European or national ICP-forests data. There are several eLTER sites across Europe which overlap with the ICP Forests network. As it was not possible to evaluate which of these sites were included in the respective studies relevant papers are listed under “ICP Forests”.

Marcos Fernández-Martínez et al. (2017) The role of nutrients, productivity and climate in determining tree fruit production in European forests . New Phytologist 213, 669–679. Mellert, K.H. et al. (2015) Modeling sensitivity to climate change and estimating the uncertainty of its impact: A probalistic concept for risk assessment in forestry. Ecological Modelling 316: 211 – 216. de la Cruz, A. C. et al. (2014) Defoliation triggered by climate induced effects in Spanish ICP Forests monitoring plots. Forest Ecology and Management 331, 245-255. Bertini, G. et al. (2011) Forest growth and climate change: evidences from the ICP-Forests intensive monitoring in Italy. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry 4, 262-267. Carnicer, J. et al. (2011) Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, 1474-1478. Solberg, S. et al. (2009) Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. Forest Ecology and Management 258, 1735-1750.

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