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STUDY on HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECT BETWEEN JOHANNESBURG and DURBAN in the REPUBLIC of SOUTH AFRICA February 2012 Prepared For

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STUDY on HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECT BETWEEN JOHANNESBURG and DURBAN in the REPUBLIC of SOUTH AFRICA February 2012 Prepared For STUDY ON PRIVATE-INITIATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2011 STUDY ON HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECT BETWEEN JOHANNESBURG AND DURBAN IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA SUMMARY February 2012 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Prepared by: Japan Railway Technical Service Mitsubishi Research Institute, INC. (1) Background of Project and Needs for the Project This project aims to introduce a high-speed railway to the Johannesburg–Durban section, which is a main corridor in the Republic of South Africa. South Africa has the largest economy in Africa. It is also one of the emerging economies experiencing high economic growth in recent years. It has an average GDP growth rate of over 4%, except in 2009, which was affected by Lehman’s fall. The per-capita nominal GDP of South Africa in 2010 ranked No. 3 among the BRICS countries, after Brazil and Russia. While the emerging economies and developing countries in the world are drawing up high-speed railway plans, the intercity passenger transport in South Africa is still relying on airplane and automobile. From the perspectives of socio-economic development and BEE policy, the high-speed railway plan has become an important topic in transport infrastructure that holds the key to sustainable economic development. In the policy speech given by President Zuma at the National Assembly in February 2010, the development of infrastructure, including railway, has already been designated as a priority area. The Department of Transport (DOT) in South Africa has also proposed the development of three high-speed railway corridors in NATMAP, the national transport master plan with 2050 as its target year. It has also taken up review of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Project as a priority among the strategic issues. In May 2010, the South African National Assembly approved to solidify the high-speed railway project and put forth a plan to establish HSRDA, an organization under DOT to take charge of high-speed railway projects. Japan also designated the export of systems, including transport infrastructure, as a strategy for economic growth. High-speed railway is identified as a priority area. Railway-related industries and railway operators have also started to turn their attention to overseas markets. Therefore, there is high expectation for these railway-related businesses, which have superior technologies in rolling stock, signaling, telecommunication, to expand overseas. It is necessary to look into a combined passenger and freight system for South Africa since it will be difficult to ensure profitability based solely on income from passenger transport service in the Johannesburg–Durban section. Under such circumstances, this project formation study was conducted to identify areas in which the Japanese high-speed railway technology can be utilized, to appeal the technology’s superiority to the concerned parties in the South African government, and to deepen the understanding of South Africa in the Japanese high-speed railway technology. Summary-1 (2) Basic Principles in Determining Contents of the Project The project’s basic principles for planning the high-speed railway for the Johannesburg–Durban section are based on NATMAP, which is being formulated by the Department of Transport of South Africa, the intent of concerned government officials, and the outcomes of local surveys. They are as follows: 1. Objectives 1) Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway This high-speed railway system will be based on the Japanese Shinkansen. It will provide not only high-speed passenger transport but also freight transport. The freight transport will not cover bulk cargoes but the freight containers that are being handled at the Port of Durban. 2) High-speed Railway System Matching the Conditions in South Africa In our search for a specific high-speed railway system for South Africa, we considered the local conditions and designed technical specifications to match them. 3) Travel Time between Johannesburg and Durban The passenger trains will run at a maximum operating speed of 300 km/h, linking Johannesburg and Durban in less than three hours. The freight trains will basically run at night at a maximum speed of 160 km/h. It will link Johannesburg and Durban in about five hours. 2. Conditions in South Africa that Require Consideration The following points shall be fully considered when planning the high-speed railway for South Africa: 1) Socio-economic Development (Job Creation, Technology Transfer, etc.) South Africa is promoting socio-economic development through job creation, technology transfer, and so on. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway needs to be planned in line with those intents and purposes. Technology shall be transferred with the objective to facilitate localization. 2) BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) Policy The policy (BEE policy) was enacted in 2004 to give preferential treatment to historically disadvantaged South Africans (HDSA) who were discriminated during the Apartheid era, to enhance their social status, and to promote their participation in social activities. Specifically, the government set standards for hiring black people at companies, universities, and various other companies and organizations in South Africa in order to improve the economic level and living standard of the black people. The BEE policy will also apply to the construction and operation of high-speed railway. 3) Comfortable and Safe High-speed Railway (Ensuring Security) Public transport means in South Africa, represented by Metrorail and mini-buses, lack safety. The user Summary-2 classes are limited. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway aims at providing safe and comfortable high-speed railway service, as seen in Gautrain. Figure 1 and Table 1 show the discussion flow and image of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway. As shown in Table 1, the high-speed railway will focus on the operation of passenger trains. Freight trains will operate during the night and the number of freight trains will be limited to a certain number. Figure 1 Proposed High-speed Railway for South Africa Japanese Shinkansen South African Factors - Optimization of technical - Socio-economic development specifications (Job creation, technology - Cost reduction transfer, etc.) - Technical Collaboration - BEE Policy (Note) - Ensuring security High-speed Railway Designed for South Africa (Objectives) - Combined passenger and freight transport - Localization - Industrialization - Maximum speed: Passenger: 300 km/h Freight: 160 km/h - Travel time for Johannesburg–Durban section Passenger: within 3 hours Freight: about 5 hours (Note) BEE = Black Economic Empowerment Source: Study Team Table 1 Image of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway Item Open for full service (2025) 25 Years after launch (2050) Passenger 1–2 trains per hour Operation focused on passenger trains (6:00 – 23:00) (increased transport capacity) Freight Operate Super Rail Cargo during the Freight train operation limited to a night (container freight train) certain number (10 trains/one-way/day) (Same as left) Train Parallel single tracks Parallel single tracks operation Maintenance 2 days (Saturdays and Sundays) a week Same as left when the freight trains are not in operation. Maintenance is carried out at night. Source: Study Team Summary-3 3. Comparison with Other Alternatives 1) Comparison of High-speed Railway Systems The high-speed railway systems operating in the world today include the distributed traction system (multiple-unit system) represented by the Japanese Shinkansen and the concentrated traction system represented by the French TGV. In comparing the two systems, the distributed traction system has many benefits. Its light axle load makes it possible to keep the infrastructure cost low. It has high performance in acceleration and deceleration and is capable of negotiating the continuous steep slopes that exist on the route of this project. Therefore, it is assumed that the Shinkansen system using distributed traction system will be used for this project. 2) Route Plan A comparison study was conducted on the three high-speed railway route options for the Johannesburg–Durban section: Route A running along the rail freight line via Richards Bay, Route B running along the conventional line via Newcastle, and Route C running along highway N3 (Figure 2). Figure 2 Map of Three Route Options for the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Source: Study Team Table 2 shows the comparison results of the three routes. In the comparison of travel time between Johannesburg and Durban, demand forecast (passenger, freight), and project cost, routes B and C are better than Route A, which is the longest. Route B is the best option in terms of social and environmental considerations.Its impact on the wetlands and areas of the indigenous people is small. Summary-4 Although the demand forecast method used in this Study did not bring to light the difference in demand between Route B and Route C as a result of difference in the distribution of big cities along the routes, it is assumed that Route B has higher demand due to the big cities on its route. Therefore, Route B is assumed to be the route for this project. Table 2 Comparison of Routes Item Route A Route B Route C (1) It runs along the conventional rail (1) It runs along the conventional (1) It runs along highway N3. freight line through Richards Bay. line through Newcastle. (2) It passes through mountainous (2) The topography is relatively
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