THE YEAR IN REVIEW 2017 IFK /ŶƐƟƚƵƚĨƺƌ&ƌŝĞĚĞŶƐƐŝĐŚĞƌƵŶŐ ƵŶĚ<ŽŶĨůŝŬƚŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ

The Year in Review of Syria is based on the periodical factsheets for Syria that are produced by the IFK-MENA 7HDPDWWKH,QVWLWXWHIRU3HDFH6XSSRUWDQG&RQÁLFW0DQDJHPHQW1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH$FDGHP\9LHQQD7KH $QQXDO5HYLHZFRPSLOHVDQGDQDO\]HVDOOVLJQLÀFDQWHYHQWVSHUWDLQLQJWRWKH6\ULDQFRQÁLFWZKLOHSURYLGLQJDQ outlook for the year 2018.

,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQÁLFWDQG&ULVLV0DQDJHPHQW,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQÁLFWDQG&ULVLV0DQDJHPHQW DomesticDomestic PoliticsPolitics 7KH\HDUPDUNHGDWXUQLQJSRLQWLQWKHVH- Domestically, the year was dominated by the sha- ven-year history of the : the terrorist ping of the future of Syria. suggested the militia Islamic State (ISIS) was territorially defea- concept of a decentrally-organized Syria and deepe- ted by the loss of its strongholds, the opposition QHGLWVUROHDVDQDFWLYHFRQÁLFWPHGLDWRULQ WKDWWULHVWRRYHUWKURZ$VVDGLVPDVVLYHO\ZHDNH- ned and intense political negotiations between MilitaryMilitary DevelopmentsDevelopments Assad's supporters - Russia and Iran - and those On the military level, numerous offensives against RIWKHRSSRVLWLRQ7XUNH\86$DQG-RUGDQ DPRQJ ISIS led to nearly all of ISIS-held territory being re- others) - have frozen the lines of conflict. conquered by the Syrian Arab Army and its allies. The Kurdish-dominated (SDF) also advanced in ISIS-held areas north of the pushing east towards the Iraqi border. Other opposition militias re-organized. Notwithstan- GLQJWKHGHHVFDODWLRQDJUHHPHQWVÀJKWLQJUHPDL- ned ongoing, especially in the northwestern provin- ces of , and .

HumanitarianHumanitarian situationsituation 'HVSLWH WKH FHDVHÀUH DJUHHPHQWV ZKLFK DW ÀUVW sight promised a more hopeful future for the Syrian SHRSOHWKHKXPDQLWDULDQVLWXDWLRQLQUHPDL- QHG WHQVH DV ZHOO 7KH HVFDODWLRQ RI ÀJKWLQJ EHW- ween regime forces and opposition on the one hand and air and ground operations by the US-led anti-IS coalition and the Russia-Iran-Assad alliance on the other, led to the death and displacement of many FLYLOLDQV$FFRUGLQJWR812&+$DERXWPLOOLRQ Syrian people need humanitarian aid by the end RI  2I WKHVH  PLOOLRQ DUH LQ GHHS GDQJHU Putin’s relationship with Assad has grown from strength-to- due to evictions, battles and limited access to basic strength since Russia’s involvement in Syria which has helped goods and services. consolidate Assad’s power at the helm.

Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/page/11

REPORTING DATE: 21.12.2017 COMPILED BY: IFK MENA-Team (Jasmina RUPP, David FUSSI, Nasser EL-HAJ, Maya HADAR,); SOURCES: MEDIA ANALYSIS; LAYOUT: REF III/Medien, IMG INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

The Astana process EUDQFKRIWKH.XUGLVK3.. 7KH.XUGLVWDQ:RUNHUV 3DU- ,QHDUO\0D\5XVVLD,UDQDQG7XUNH\VLJQHGWKH$VWDQD ty). Despite a mechanism to assure compliance with the agreement, establishing four de-escalation zones (Idlib, FHDVHÀUHLQDOO]RQHVUHJXODUFHDVHÀUHYLRODWLRQVRFFXU- North Hama, East Ghouta and South Syria) in which hos- red, particularly in Idlib, North Hama and East Ghouta WLOLWLHVZHUHPHDQWWRKDOW7KHDJUHHPHQWUHÁHFWHGWKH zones and called into question the seriousness of the commitment of the three observer states to use their DJUHHPHQW7KHGHHVFDODWLRQ]RQHVDUHDÀUVWVWHSLQ LQÁXHQFH RQ ORFDO JURXSV LQ RUGHU WR SUHYHQW ÀJKWLQJ containing the hostilities, but they do not offer a political VXVSHQGDLUVWULNHVDQGDOORZKXPDQLWDULDQUHOLHI7KH solution. In September, the Syrian Foreign Minister Wa- US which for years decided against military intervention lid Moallem referred to the zones only as a "temporary in Syria and insisted on a diplomatic solution instead agreement". SOD\HGQRUROHLQWKH$VWDQDDJUHHPHQWDQGKDYHNHSW LWV HQJDJHPHQWV OLPLWHG WR ÀJKWLQJ ,6,6 7KH $VWDQD &KHPLFDO$WWDFNVDQGWKH´QHZROG86VWUDWHJ\µIRU process, which focuses primarily on a negotiated settle- 6\ULD ment at the military level, replaced - much to the disple- $FKHPLFDODWWDFNZKLFKRFFXUUHGLQ$SULOLQWKHUHEHO asure of the opposition - the UN-led peace negotiations KHOGFLW\RI.KDQ6KHLNKRXQVSDUNHGGLUHFW86DFWLRQ in Geneva, which have been unsuccessful thus far. DJDLQVWWKH$VVDGUHJLPHIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHVLQFHWKHEH- ginning of the Syrian war. Yet, contrary to speculation :KREHQHÀWVIURPWKHGHHVFDODWLRQ]RQHV" DERXWDQHZ86VWUDWHJ\LQ6\ULDWKHDWWDFNGLGQRWPDUN The Astana process ultimately failed to enforce a nation- the beginning of a major US military intervention. The ZLGHFHDVHÀUHDQGLPSURYHWKHKXPDQLWDULDQVLWXDWLRQ US' top priority in Syria remained as it was under presi- 7KHGHHVFDODWLRQ]RQHVDUHQRWWREHPLVWDNHQIRUVDIH GHQW2EDPDWKHÀJKWDJDLQVW,6,6)RUWKLVSXUSRVHWKH zones and constitute a strategic decision which enabled US had supplied a wide selection of weapons and armo- the pro-Assad forces, in particular, to urgently relocate red vehicles to the Kurdish-dominated SDF (Syrian De- their troops to the front lines in the battle against ISIS. PRFUDWLF)RUFHV PXFKWRWKHGLVPD\RI7XUNH\WREDWWOH 7KLV ZD\ WKH UHJLPH DQG LWV DOOLHV ZHUH DEOH WR WDFNOH ,6,6LQ5DTTDDQG'HLUH]=RXU5RXJKO\$PHULFDQ ISIS-held areas in Homs, Deir ez-Zour and along the Eu- soldiers are currently stationed in Syria. SKUDWHV9DOOH\DQGVORZHGGRZQDSRVVLEOHJDLQRILQÁX- ence of the US and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Demo- 7KHGHIHDWRIWKHDUPHGRSSRVLWLRQ cratic Forces (SDF), and build a territorial corridor from The capture of Aleppo, the last urban stronghold of the Iraq to Syria as desired by Iran and . DUPHGRSSRVLWLRQE\UHJLPHIRUFHVDWWKHHQGRI PDUNHGWKHIDLOXUHRIWKHUHYROXWLRQ$IWHUPRUHWKDQWZR In addition, the four de-escalation zones secure the long- \HDUV RI 5XVVLDQ DLUVWULNHV DJDLQVW UHEHO JURXSV ,6,6 WHUPLQÁXHQFHRIUHJLRQDOSOD\HUVLQ6\ULD,QVRXWKHUQ and Al-Qaeda's offshoot Hai'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a 6\ULD-RUGDQDQGWKH86 UHSUHVHQWLQJ,VUDHO FDOOHGIRU VLJQLÀFDQW QXPEHU RI WKH DUPHG RSSRVLWLRQ KDV EHHQ the withdrawal of pro-Iranian forces from Israel's bor- defeated. The suspension of the CIA program to support GHUV0HDQZKLOH7XUNH\KDVH[SDQGHGLWVPLOLWDU\DQG anti-Assad rebels at the end of the year gave the last SROLWLFDO LQÁXHQFH LQ QRUWKHUQ 6\ULD E\ HVWDEOLVKLQJ D fatal blow to the armed opposition. WHUULWRULDO ]RQH EHWZHHQ $]D] DQG -DUDEOXV DV ZHOO DV WKURXJKLWVREVHUYHUUROHLQWKHSURYLQFHRI,GOLE7XUNH\·V On a political level, the fragmented opposition suffered main priority remained the containment of the Syrian VHWEDFNVDIWHUEHLQJSUHVVXUHGE\LWVVXSSRUWHUVPDLQ- ly Saudi Arabia, to merge with less dissident opposition De-escalation zones groups such as the Moscow and Cairo groups for the 1RYHPEHU WK·V *HQHYD URXQG RI QHJRWLDWLRQV DQG WR dana OsmaniyeGaziantep Aseyhan of: 14.09.2017 TÜRKEI TarsusC Ceyhan Ain al-Arab (Kobane) Al-Qamishli refrain altogether from their original conditions for nego-

Manbij tiating: Assad's immediate resignation and the release Al-Hasaka Al-Bab Sinjar Antakya Aleppo Mossul of political prisoners. Idlib Ar- Euphra The Arab Gulf States, long-time supporters of the opposi- Latakia Deir t ez-Zour Hama WLRQZHUHFRPSOHWHO\H[FOXGHGIURPWKH$VWDQDSURFHVV Salamiyah IRAK Al-Mayadin and were thus forced to abandon their unrealistic tar- Tartus Homs SYRIEN Tripoli Palmyra (Tadmur) gets of a regime crash. Consequently, they had to pursue Abu Kamal LIBANON Qaryatayn new strategic objectives in Syria, most probably rebuil- Baalbek BEIRUT Rebellen ding devastated Sunni Arab territories. Peace and sta- von Rebellen mit Türkei-Unterstützung Baghdadi Douma kontrolliertes Gebiet bility have become much more important to the Syrian von unterschiedlich ausgeprägtenHit islamis- DAMASKUS Al-Walid tischen Gruppierungen kontr. GebietRamadi people than the demand for power and political order. Kuneitra Dschihadistische Rebellen IS Einflusszone/IS kontrolliertesal-Habbania-S Gebiet e *RODQ Assad-Regime und Verbündete KÒKHQ As-Suwayda vom Regime kontrolliertes Gebiet Kurden Dar‘a 7XUNH\·VHQJDJHPHQWLQ6\ULD Irbid von Syrischen Demokratischen Kräften JORDANIEN (SDF) kontrolliertes Gebiet ,Q7XUNH\WULHGLQYDLQWRSHUVXDGHWKH86WRJLYH von Israel besetztes Gebiet 050100150200Az Zarqa km AMMAN in Astana vereinbarte Deeskalationszonen XSLWVVXSSRUWIRU3..DIÀOLDWHGJURXSVLQQRUWKHUQ6\ULD <3*6') DQGLQVWHDGSRVLWLRQ7XUNH\OR\DORSSRVLWLRQ An agreement in Astana was signed to establish four de-escalation zo- nes aimed towards the cessation of hostilities between rebel groups and IRUFHVLQWKHÀJKWDJDLQVW,6,6$WWKHVDPHWLPH7XUNH\ forces loyal to Assad. and Russia tried to identify common interest in Syria to PDNHWKHGHHVFDODWLRQDJUHHPHQWLQWKHODVWIXOO\UHEHO /D\RXW,0*6RXUFH,). KHOGSURYLQFHRI,GOLEZRUN+RZHYHU7XUNH\GLGPDQDJH of Russian forces to western Syria, where they must to surround the hostile Kurdish enclave of Afrin through VXSSRUWWKH$VVDGUHJLPH·VUHFRQTXHVWRIWKHODVWIXOO\ LWVORQJODVWLQJFRQWURORYHUWKHVRFDOOHG-DUDEOXV&RUUL- rebel-held province of Idlib, as well as securing their own GRU VLQFH DQGLWVREVHUYHUSRVWWRPDLQWDLQWKH PLOLWDU\EDVHLQ/DWDNLD FHDVHÀUHLQ,GOLE$OOWKHVHDFWLRQVLQGLFDWHWKDW7XUNLVK PLOLDU\DFWLRQLQ6\ULDLVOLNHO\WRFRQWLQXHLQ 'XULQJWKH86KDVH[SDQGHGLWVEDVHVLQWKH.XU- GLVK DUHDV RI 5PHODQ .REDQH DQG +DVDND PRVWO\ WR SUHYHQW D UHVXUJHQFH RI ,6,6 DQG WR FRQWDLQ ,UDQ·V LQ- ÁXHQFHLQ6\ULD:KLOH7XUNH\UHSRUWHGO\HVWDEOLVKHGLWV base in the ISIS-liberated city of al-Bab, the United King- GRP EXLOW D PLOLWDU\ EDVH LQ WKH -RUGDQLDQ6\ULDQ,UDTL border area in al-Tanf and Iran has operation facilities in Aleppo, Hama and in southwest Damascus. All these VWDWHVZLOOSOD\DNH\UROHLQWKHQHJRWLDWLRQVIRUWKHSROL- tical and territorial future of Syria.

Forecast 2018 $OWKRXJKDSROLWLFDOVROXWLRQWRWKH6\ULDQFRQÁLFWLVFXU- 7KH$VWDQD&RQIHUHQFHFUHDWHGWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQZKLFK5XVVLD,UDQDQG rently more foreseeable than ever before, new hostilities Turkey agreed to establish four de-escalation zones in which hostilities FRXOGVHWRIILQ&ODVKHVEHWZHHQWKH86EDFNHG were meant to halt. Kurds and the Assad-Iran-Russia alliance are particularly possible in the light of the diminishing ISIS caliphate. Pu- Source: https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/12/ blic threats to seize the city of Raqqa have already been made by the regime. The Kurdish occupation of parts of ,UDQWKH´ZLQQHUµRIWKH6\ULDQZDU the resource-rich province of Deir ez-Zour is also a thorn Iran, with its ally Hezbollah, can be considered victorious LQWKHVLGHRIWKH$VVDGUHJLPH7KH.XUGVDUHQRWOLNHO\ LQWKH6\ULDQFRQÁLFW3UR,UDQLDQPLOLWLDVDQG+H]EROODK WRJLYHXSWKRVHDUHDVZLWKRXWDVLJQLÀFDQWFRPSHQVDWL- successfully launched offensives against rebel forces on, such as autonomy concessions. Currently, however, DQG,6,6DQGKDYHPDVVLYHO\H[SDQGHGWKHLULQÁXHQFH 's total independence is being rejected, Israel is particularly concerned with the presence of pro- ERWKLQWHUQDOO\DQGH[WHUQDOO\7KHIDLOXUHRIWKH.XUGV Iranian militias near its borders and the Israeli air force to participate in the Geneva, Astana and Sochi negoti- has repeatedly bombed convoys carrying arms, weapons DWLRQVDWWKHLQVWLJDWLRQRI7XUNH\PDNHVWKHSRVVLELOLW\ depots and factories on Syrian territory. of reaching a political solution more complicated as Kur- GLVKIRUFHVFRQWURORI6\ULD VWHUULWRU\7KHUHODWLRQ- 5XVVLDDVDPHGLDWRUDQGFHDVHÀUHREVHUYHULVQRWZLO- VKLSEHWZHHQWKH86DQG7XUNH\LWV1$72SDUWQHUZLOO OLQJWRWDNHDFWLRQDQGSUHYHQWWKHSUHVHQFHRILWVDOO\ UHPDLQWHQVH7KHH[WHQWRIWKH$PHULFDQVXSSRUWRIWKH Iran in the border area. Thus, the new buffer zone plan <3*6')IROORZLQJ,6,6·FROODSVHUHPDLQVWREHVHHQ86 from November 8thRQO\FRYHUVDZLGWKRINPLQVWHDG bases in the Kurdish area could serve as a natural shield RINPDVUHTXLUHGE\,VUDHO,VUDHOIHDUVWKDWWKLVZLOO for the YPG. allow pro-Iranian forces to settle in southwestern Syria LQGHÀQLWHO\7KH/HEDQHVH+H]EROODKFRXOGSDUWLFXODUO\ 7KH SRVWFRQÁLFW SKDVH LQ 6\ULD ZLOO FRQWLQXH LQ  use the area along the Golan Heights as a new base and 'LPLQLVKHGÀJKWLQJZRXOGPDNHURRPIRUUHFRQVWUXFWLRQ launch offensives against Israel. DQGXUJHWKHUHJLPHWRVHHNÀQDQFLDOVXSSRUWIRUVXFK SXUSRVH5XVVLDXQOLNH,UDQRU&KLQDSURYHVWREHOHVV =RQHVRILQÁXHQFHRIH[WHUQDOSRZHUV RIDUHOLDEOHSDUWQHUDVLWLVQRWDEOHWRRIIHUÀQDQFLDO $OVR LQ  WKH ]RQHV LQÁXHQFH RI H[WHUQDO SRZHUV support needed for such reconstruction. In the Syrian ZHUHVROLGLÀHGHVSHFLDOO\WKURXJKWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRI SRVWFRQÁLFWSKDVH5XVVLDZLOOWKXVQHHGWRVHHNQHZ PLOLWDU\ EDVHV 5XVVLD EHJDQ PRGHUQL]LQJ DQG H[SDQ- allies, perhaps Western ones, to maintain its long-term ding its naval base in Tartus and has collaborated with center of gravity in Syria as well as its pressure on Assad. the YPG in a Russian-Kurdish training camp in Afrin.

1H[WWR,UDQ5XVVLDLVWKHRWKHUZLQQHULQWKH6\ULDQ FRQÁLFW7KURXJKLWVQDYDOEDVH5XVVLDZDVDEOHWRVH- cure long-term access to the Mediterranean. In addition, 5XVVLDZDVDEOHWREHQHÀWIURPQXPHURXVDUPVVXSSO\ contracts and strengthen its position as a relevant inter- national actor. The recent announcement by the Russian president Pu- WLQUHJDUGLQJWKHZLWKGUDZDORIDVLJQLÀFDQWSRUWLRQRI Russian troops from Syria may be seen as a re-focusing DOMESTIC POLITICS

.XUGLVKDXWRQRP\DVSLUDWLRQV and it was argued that they constitute an act of ethnic clean- 0RVFRZ LQWHQVLÀHG LWV FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH .XUGV LQ $IULQ VLQJZKLFKLQÁXHQFHHWKQLFDQGUHOLJLRXVGLVWULEXWLRQLQWKH and submitted a draft constitution for a federal autonomous country. Moreover, two such evacuation agreements were region of Kurdistan within a decentralized Syria to Damas- negotiated with ISIS; one agreement made the withdrawal FXV,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHWKUHHFDQWRQVRI-D]LUD$IULQDQG(X- RI,6,6PLOLWDQWVDQGWKHLUUHODWLYHVIURPWKH6\ULDQ/HEDQHVH SKUDWLQQRUWKHUQ6\ULDWKH6')H[SDQGHGWKHLUFRQWUROLQWKH border region to Deir ez-Zour possible, whereas another se- newly-conquered territories by establishing local civil coun- FXUHGWKHZLWKGUDZDORIWKHUHPDLQLQJ,6,6ÀJKWHUVDQGWKHLU cils. These newly conquered territories are mainly populated relatives from Raqqa to Deir ez-Zour in mid-October, when by Arabs, which may lead to tensions after ISIS as mutual the was de-facto over. opponent is defeated. $QHZ&RQVWLWXWLRQIRU6\ULD $WWKHVDPHWLPHLQQHU.XUGLVKWHQVLRQVH[LVWVPDLQO\GXH The Russian initiative to draft a new constitution for Syria WRWKHGLIIHUHQFHRILQWHUHVWVDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOLQÁXHQFHHV- started with the invitation of a few minor opposition groups SHFLDOO\RI7XUNH\DQG,UDT/DVWVSULQJPHPEHUVRIWKH.XU- to Moscow in early February. The main themes in the draft GLVK

Kurdish autonomy within a decentralized Syria could and may OLNHO\EHWKHFDVHEXWDIXOOLQGHSHQGHQFHIURP'DPDVFXV especially after the negative precedent in neighboring Iraq, is QRWOLNHO\DVWKLVSODQODFNVWKHVXSSRUWRI.XUGLVKDOOLHVOLNH the US. Assad's dealings with the various opposition groups will determine the political future of Syria. It should be noted that the SDF are given a different status than HTS or Ahr- ar al-Sham, since the SDF do not oppose the Syrian regime militarily. The most important factor for stability in the near 7KH 6\ULDQ 3DUOLDPHQW LV EHLQJ DGGUHVVHG E\ $VVDG LQ -XO\ DI- future lies in the compliance with the de-escalation zones. If WHUWKH&KDLURIWKH3DUOLDPHQW'U+DGLD$EEDVZDVÀUHGIRUDOOHJHGO\ WKHFHDVHÀUHDJUHHPHQWVDUHODUJHO\UHVSHFWHGWKHVLJQV EHLQJ¶XQGHPRFUDWLF· are currently pointing to the opposite - then chances are high Source: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170722-syrian-parlia- to start a process of political reconciliation under the pre- ment-ousts-its-own-chair/ WH[WRIQDWLRQDOGLDORJXHDQGQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKHPHGLXP term goal of drafting a constitution followed by elections. The The political elite in Damascus did not undergo any major developments within the fractured opposition remain depen- FKDQJHVLQ7KHLQQHUFLUFOHDURXQG$VVDGUHPDLQHGDV GHQW RQ WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI IRUHLJQ DFWRUV QRWDEO\ 7XUNH\ LWZDV7KUHHQHZPLQLVWHULDOSRVWVWKRVHIRU-XVWLFH3XEOLF Qatar and other supporters of the opposition, such as Saudi Administration and Economy & Trade have been re-staffed. Arabia, the US, and the UK, in the transitional political phase following the defeat of ISIS. It is crucial how the regime Forecast in Damascus reacts, which strategy or goal is being pursued 'RPHVWLFDOO\WKHQH[WIHZ\HDUVLQ6\ULDZLOOGHSHQGKHDYLO\ is not yet to be estimated, as history has proven that cont- on the future of president Assad. The fact that Assad will re- UDGLFWRU\VWDWHPHQWVDUHPDGHE\YDULRXVLQÁXHQWLDO6\ULDQ main at the helm, according to current indications, may com- and foreign personalities respectively.

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS Aleppo areas and eventually liberating Raqqa, the Kurdish-domina- ,QWKHRYHUDOOFRQWH[WRIWKHZDUVHFXULQJPLOLWDU\VXFFHVVLQ ted militia underscored its ability to defend not only Kurdish $OHSSRLQ-DQXDU\ZDVRIJUHDWVWUDWHJLFLPSRUWDQFHIRU populated areas in northern Syria but also conquer new terri- the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) for three reasons: WRULHVOLNHWKHQRUWKHUQFRXQWU\VLGHRI'HLUH]=RU a) Aleppo is the urban and infrastructural center in nort- hern Syria and is of high symbolic value 'HLUH]=RXU b) WKH SUR[LPLW\ WR WKH 7XUNLVK ERUGHU DOORZHG D VWHDG\ 7KH6$$·VYLFWRU\LQ'HLUH]=RXUFLW\XQGHUOLQHGWKHFUXFLDO supply for the opposition SDUWLFLSDWLRQRIWKH5XVVLDQDLUIRUFHDQGQDY\6LQFH,6,6· c) the last groups of the armed opposition merged into ÀUVWDUULYDOLQ'HLUH]=RXULQWKHJURXSKDVVLQFHUH- GLIIHUHQW FRDOLWLRQV WKH ODUJHVW RI WKHP  ZDV -DLVK SHDWHGO\WULHGWRWDNHRYHUZKDWZDVFRQVLGHUHGWKHUHPDL- DO)DWDK ZKLFK LQFOXGHV DO 4DHGD V RIIVSULQJ -DEKDW ning Baathist stronghold in Eastern Syria, and a defeat in Fatah al-Sham and could pose a threat to the regime 'HLUH]=RXUZRXOGKDYHFXOPLQDWHGLQDORVVRILQÁXHQFHLQ through new offensives eastern Syria for Assad. In addition, the city is situated in the Euphrates valley and therefore holds great strategic impor- From the regime perspective, had rebels not been defeated tance for the region because it is situated on the main transit in Aleppo, the regime and its allies would not have been able route to northern Iraq. to refocus its forces on ISIS and the Kurds. The deployment RI7XUNLVKIRUFHVWRWKHQRUWKHUQSURYLQFHRI$OHSSRZDVQRW Given that the SDF were able to achieve major territorial only an important symbolic move, but also presented Assad gains in Deir ez-Zour, and the competition from various fronts with a longterm challenge of dealing with foreign powers on WRFODLPWRZQVDQGRLOÀHOGVDORQJWKH(XSKUDWHVYDOOH\LWKDG his territory in conjunction with struggles against other rebel become evident that Deir ez-Zour is of critical importance to groups. the players involved on the ground. The province a) FRQWDLQV ULFK UHVRXUFHV WKDW ZRXOG KDYH EHQHÀWHG Raqqa $VVDG·VSODQIRUUHFRQVWUXFWLRQ Securing victory for the Kurdish-dominated SDF in Raqqa b) OLHVLQFORVHSUR[LPLW\WRWKH,UDTLERUGHUDQGWKHUHIRUH was imperative given the symbolic and strategic importance KDVLPSOLFDWLRQVIRU,UDQDQG+H]EROODK·VPLOLWDU\DPEL- of the city for ISIS. Firstly, Raqqa was the largest Syrian city tions towards establishing a land corridor to Iran, and XQGHUWKHJURXS·VFRQWURODQGWKHÀUVWDUHDLWFDSWXUHGEH- c) Deir ez-Zour could potentially be the city in which ISIS fore announcing it as the capital of the caliphate. Secondly, and other jihadi groups resurrect, possibly impacting 5DTTDLVUHFRJQL]HGDVWKHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQDOPHGLDDQG the role of the US in remaining in the region to prevent H[WHUQDORSHUDWLRQVFHQWHURI,6,6VHUYLQJDVDKXEIRUSODQ- renewed violent escalations QLQJRYHUVHDVWHUURUDWWDFNV The capture of the provincial capital by the Syrian Arab Army 7KH6$$KDGIDFHGFKDOOHQJHVRQYDULRXVIURQWVGXHWR,6,6· and its allies, supported by Russian air support, represents occupation of Raqqa and the inability to enter Raqqa through a strategically important victory for the Assad regime. Thus, US bombing of regime positions as a tactical warning. No- the regime can now maintain the legitimacy of the Baathist netheless, with SDF driving ISIS out of strategically important party in the east as well. ,GOLE +RPVDQG+DPD Idlib, an area largely under control of jihadist groups, beca- Considered the “capital of the revolution" against the regime, PHWKHFHQWUHRILQWHQVHÀJKWLQJEHWZHHQ$KUDUDO6KDP the SAA and its allies have launched an offensive in the eas- EDFNHG E\ 7XUNH\ DQG WKHLU DOOLHV RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG tern part of Homs province. The importance of this offensive HTS, a strong major opposition force controlling the region, was underlined by the cooperation between the SAA, Russia on the other hand. In this battle for power and territorial DQG+H]EROODKLQÀJKWLQJDQGGHIHDWLQJ,6,6'HVSLWHWKHDJ- control, HTS eventually gained the upper hand by conque- UHHPHQWLQ&DLURRQDFHDVHÀUHEHWZHHQWKH6$$DQGUHEHO ULQJWKHSURYLQFLDOFDSLWDO,GOLE)RU7XUNH\WKRXJKÀJKWLQJ JURXSUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVLWKDGEHHQEUHDFKHGE\UHEHODWWDFNV in Idlib represented a threat of a “terror-hub” on its border E\$KUDU$O6KDP·VDWWDFNVLQQRUWKHUQ+DPD ZLWK 6\ULD ZKLFK WULJJHUHG 7XUNH\·V GHFLVLRQ WR VXSSRUW $KUDUDO6KDPGXHWRLWVRZQVHFXULW\LQWHUHVWV7KHÀJK- +76·IUDLOWLHVZHUHIXUWKHUH[SRVHGDVWKH\ODXQFKHGDQXQ- successful offensive against the north ISIS teritorial control 2014-2017 RI+DPDLQWKHÀUVWKDOIRI7KLVRIIHQVLYHZDVSDUWLFX- larly indicative of the fact that the group was unable to main- tain territorial gains for a sustained period, while the Syrian forces were greatly boosted by the intervention of Russian air support and were thus able to tighten their grip on territories. The situation in the northern Hama countryside remained WHQVH WKURXJKRXW  ZLWK RQO\ VPDOO WHUULWRULDO VKLIWLQJV between the rebels and government forces.

Deraa Despite the current presence of some anti-government militant groups and ISIS in the southern province of Der- 7KH LQÁXHQFH RI ,6,6 LQ 6\ULD KDV GLPLQLVKHG RYHU WKH FRXUVH RIWKH last three years which is threatening the future of the Caliphate on the aa Quneitra and the Golan Heights, the offensive to regain JURXQGDOWKRXJKLQ'HFHPEHU,6,6VWLOOKROGVWHUULWRU\EHWZHHQ control over the city of Deraa was coordinated between the DQGLQFORVHSUR[LPLW\WRWKH6\ULDQ,UDTLERUGHU 6$$,UDQLDQEDFNHGPLOLWLDVDQGWKH5XVVLDQ$LU)RUFH7KH importance of this offensive is characterised by a number of Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034 points:

WLQJ LQ ,GOLE SXVKHG ,UDQ 5XVVLD DQG 7XUNH\ WR DJUHH LQ a) To obstruct the opposition from maintaining control WKHFRQWH[WRIWKH$VWDQDDJUHHPHQWRQIRUPDOO\UHGXFLQJ RYHUWKHVWUDWHJLFERUGHUFURVVLQJZLWK-RUGDQ WKHÀJKWLQJEHWZHHQLQVXUJHQWVDQGWKHJRYHUQPHQWLQWKH b) Symbolically, Deraa is considered the “birthplace” of QRUWKZHVWDVZHOODVWRSURYRNHDVSOLWEHWZHHQ$O4DLGD WKHVL[\HDUROGXSULVLQJ loyalists and other opposition groups. That said, since the c) Army bases in Deraa were one of the main lines of de- province of Deir ez-Zour was largely under control of the re- fence for regime forces which they used to shell all the gime, government troops and the Russian Air Force started areas to the east of the province. new low-scale advances towards Idlib. d) Finally rebel controlled-areas in Deraa border the Isra- eli-occupied Golan Heights, and are thus crucial to Iran 7KURXJKLWVREVHUYHUVWDWXV7XUNH\ZDVDEOHWRGHSOR\7XU- and Hezbollah. NLVKIRUFHVDURXQGWKH.XUGLVKSURYLQFHRI$IULQ

Comparison of teritorial control;: February and December 2017

OsmaniyeGaziantep han OsmaniyeGaziantep dana As of: 03.02.2017 TURKEY dana Asy of: 14.12.2017 TURKEY TarsusCeyhanCeyhan TarsusCe Ceyhan Ain al-Arab (Kobane) Al-Qamishli Ain al-Arab (Kobane) Al-Qamishli

Manbij Manbij Al-Bab Al-Hasaka Al-Hasaka Sinjar Al-Bab Sinjar Antakya Aleppo Mossul Antakya Aleppo Mossul Idlib Idlib Ar-Raqqa Ar-Raqqa

Latakia Deir Latakia Deir ez-Zour ez-Zour Hama Hama IRAQ IRAQ Al-Mayadin Al-Mayadin Tartus Tartus Homs SYRIA Homs SYRIA ates s Tripoli Euphr Tripoli Euphrate Palmyra (Tadmur) Abu Kamal River Palmyra (Tadmur) Abu Kamal River LEBANON Qaryatayn LEBANON Qaryatayn Baalbek Baalbek BEIRUT BEIRUT

Rebels Baghdadi Douma Baghdadi Douma Rebels Hit Occupied territories by Turkish-backedHit rebels Al-Walid Al-Walid DAMASKUS Occupied territories by Turkish-backed Ramadrebels i DAMASKUS Occupied territories by different IslamistRamadi groups Occupied territories by different Islamist groups Jihadist Rebels al-Habbania-S Kuneitra Jihadist Rebels Kuneitra IS controlled al-Habbania-S Golan IS controlled Golan Assad regime and allies Heights As-Suwayda Assad regime and allies Heights As-Suwayda Occupied territories by the Government Occupied territories by the Government Kurds Dar‘a Dar‘a Irbid Kurds Irbid Occupied territories by the JORDAN Occupied territories by the JORDAN Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Israel-occupied territories 0 50Az Zarqa 100 150 200 km 050100150200Az Zarqa km AMMAN Israel-occupied territories AMMAN Agreed de-escalation zones in Astana Military developments over the course of the last 12 months made by all competing actors have reshaped territorial control.

Layout: IMG Source: IFK 'HHVFDODWLRQ]RQHV Forecast The areas selected to form the de-escalation zones are of :LWK ,6,6· LQÁXHQFH VWURQJO\ UHGXFHG DQG WKH 6$$ KDYLQJ strategic importance. Idlib lies close to the border with Tur- achieved a number of territorial gains, Assad may attempt NH\ DQG /DWDNLD D UHJLPH VWURQJKROGZKHUH 5XVVLD KDV LWV to consolidate his control of all major urban centers in the main air base. Idlib is also a launchpad for oppositon groups country, yet, further relying on Russian and Iranian support. against regime forces. The implementation of this zone could 7KHDUHDVVWLOOWREHSRWHQWLDOO\FRQWHVWHGLQDUHEHW- EHKLQGHUHGE\UHEHOIDFWLRQV7XUNH\·VSUHVVXUHRQPLOLWDQW ZHHQ6XNKQDDQG$O%XNDPDODQG0D\DGLQLQWKH(XSKUDWHV groups and the possibility of HTS - which is not part of the River valley where ISIS holds large desert areas; areas con- FHDVHÀUHDJUHHPHQWFDSWXULQJODUJHSDUWVRI,GOLERUWKHUH- trolled by rebel militants in Idlib; in the south in Daraa and JLPHLWVHOI$FHDVHÀUHDJUHHPHQWDQGWKHREVHUYHUIXQFWLRQ as-Suweida, and closer to the south-west around at-Tanf, as RI7XUNH\DQG5XVVLDFRXOGSXWSUHVVXUHRQRSSRVLWLRQPLOL- well as Eastern Ghouta. tias and prevent the strengthening of al-Qaeda-loyal groups, which are not part of the agreement. Should the Syrian Army be unable to advance to the contes- ted areas and thus stamp their authority over the rebels, a Another de-escalation zone is in the centrally located pro- political settlement with militant groups would need to be vince of Homs, and covers a small rebel-held area just north VWUXFNDVFHQDULRWKDW$VVDGOR\DOLVWVPD\KDYHWRXQZLO- RIWKHFLW\,UDQ·VPLOLWDU\SUHVHQFHLQ+RPVKDVUDLVHGIHDUV lingly accept. Future military developments will also depend that Iran is using Homs as a headquarter for its forces. The on the sustainability of the de-escalation zones, while the (DVWHUQ *KRXWD GHHVFDODWLRQ ]RQH LV VLWXDWHG RQO\ NP SRVVLELOLW\RIIXUWKHUH[SDQGLQJWKH]RQHVWRRWKHUSDUWVRI IURP 'DPDVFXV DQG FRQVWLWXWHV WKH ÀQDO UHEHOVWURQJKROG the country should not be discounted. However, the current QHDU WKH 6\ULDQ FDSLWDO /DVWO\ WKH UHEHOFRQWUROOHG DUHD LQ HYHQWVSRLQWWRDFROODSVHRIWKHFHDVHÀUHDJUHHPHQWVDQG 6RXWKHUQ6\ULDDORQJWKHERUGHUZLWK-RUGDQLQFOXGHVSDUWV the capture of the last rebel-held areas by Assad forces. of Deraa and Quneitra provinces, is a potential launchpad In respect of the territorial sovereignty, the Assad Regime will IRUUHEHODWWDFNVRQ'DPDVFXV,VUDHOKDVYRLFHGFRQFHUQV QHHGWRFRQYLQFHKRVWLOHH[WHUQDOSRZHUVOLNHWKH868.DQG UHJDUGLQJSRWHQWLDODWWDFNVODXQFKHGIURPVRXWKHUQ6\ULDE\ 7XUNH\WROHDYH6\ULDQVRLOLQWKHORQJWHUP$FRPSOHWHZLWKGUD- ,UDQ+H]EROODKDQGRWKHU6KL·LWHPLOLWLDV ZDORIWKHDOOLHG,UDQLDQDQG5XVVLDQWURRSVLVXQOLNHO\

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

IDPs cus followed due to repeated clashes between the govern- ,QWKHQXPEHURI,'3VLQ6\ULDH[FHHGHGPLOOLRQSHR- PHQWDQGQRQJRYHUQPHQWIRUFHV$Q6')RIIHQVLYHWRUHWDNH SOH ,'0&6\ULD $URXQG,'3VUHWXUQHGWRHDVWHUQ 5DTTDLQ-XQHWULJJHUHGODUJHZDYHVRIGLVSODFHPHQWDQGE\ $OHSSR LQ WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI  WKRXJK OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV PLG-XO\RQO\DERXWWRUHVLGHQWVZHUHHVWL- IROORZLQJWKHSURORQJHGÀJKWLQJLQWKHDUHDPDNHWKHVXVWDL- mated to have stayed in the city (out of a pre-war population QDELOLW\RIWKHLUUHWXUQGRXEWIXO)XUWKHUÀJKWLQJEHWZHHQWKH RIRYHU ,Q6HSWHPEHUPLOLWDU\RSHUDWLRQVDJDLQVW 6')DQG,6,6LQ$OHSSRDQG,GOLEUHVXOWHGLQVLJQLÀFDQWGLV- ,6,6LQ'HLUH]=RXUUHVXOWHGLQRYHUSHRSOHEHLQJ SODFHPHQWVRIDERXWLQ0DQELMGXULQJWKHÀUVWSDUW GLVSODFHGPRVWO\ÁHHLQJWRRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHJRYHUQRUDWH RIWKH\HDU,'3VLQ+DPDDQGDWOHDVW,'3V Many of those who remained in Deir ez-Zour could not be in and around besieged Eastern Ghouta and rural Damas- UHDFKHGZLWKKXPDQLWDULDQDVVLVWDQFHGXHWRWKHSUR[LPLW\ RIÀJKWLQJRUEHLQJLQDUHDVXQGHU,6,6FRQWURO Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries 3URYLGLQJKXPDQLWDULDQDVVLVWDQFHWREHVLHJHGDUHDV RU B l a c k S e a GEORGIA TBILISI 7KURXJKRXWEHVLHJHPHQWVLQ6\ULDFRQWLQXHGGHVSL- anbul SamsunSamsuun Izmit AdapazarappazarÕ Kur a Gan te international outcry. The delivery of humanitarian assis- of Marmara ARMENIA Bursa YEREVAN A AANKARANKARA NAGO tance by international and local actors to several locations EEskskLúeehirhir SivasSivas KARA Erzurum in the country was obstructed in the light of ongoing or TURKEYKÕ] Õl Õrrmm 3 381ak 005 Elazig A KayseriKayseri Van UHQHZHG KRVWLOLWLHV VKLIWLQJ FRQÁLFW OLQHV DGPLQLVWUDWLYH MalatyaMala atya Van T Denizli KKonyaonya Batman impediments and deliberate restrictions on the movement KKahramanmarasahahramanmaras DiyarbakÕr Urmia GGaziantepaziantep ùanlÕurfa Antalyaa of people and goods. These conditions resulted in a prolon- MersinMersin AAdanadana JHGODFNRIDFFHVVWRKXPDQLWDULDQDLGDQGDQLQFUHDVHLQ Aleppo Ar-Raqqah Mosul Erbil Sulaymaniyah LatakiaLatakia Euphr food prices, which further deteriorated conditions for peo- NICOSIACOCOSIA Hama at Kirkuk es HHoms SYRIA Tigi ple living under siege. CYPRUSPRUS s LEBANON BBEIRUTEIRUT AlAl MuqdadiyahMuqu d 997 905 DAMASCUSDAMA e r r a n e a n S e a RRamadiamadi BBAGHDADA 8QH[SORGHGRUGQDQFHV HHaifaaifa IRAQ IIrbidrbid 246 974 HillahH KKarbalaarballa 7KHSUHVHQFHRIODQGPLQHVLPSURYLVHGH[SORVLYHGHYLFHV TelTel AAvivviv WESTWESTZarqaZarqa BANKBANK Al Diwaniya JERUSALEMSALEM NajafNajaf DQGH[SORVLYHUHPQDQWVRIZDUFRQWLQXHVWREHDVHULRXV Gaza AAMMANMMAN andria Port Said GAZA safety concern in numerous locations, especially in territo- Tanta Mansoura ISRAELR AEL JORDAN Zagazig Ismailiamailia 654 903 CAIRO Giza SuezSuez ULHVRQFHRFFXSLHGE\,6,6&RQVHTXHQWO\PLQHULVNHGXFD- Shubra El-Kheima EGYPT tion and awareness activities were provided by aid organi- Faiyum 126 291 a G ab q u AAq l f f o of zations in IDP camps and in host communities throughout f Nile S u Tabuk e z Gulf SAUDI ARABIA the year. A substantial clean up of such heavily mined regi- :DUWRUQ 6\ULD KDV OHG WR D VXEVWDQWLDO QXPEHU RI 6\ULDQV ÁHHLQJ WKH ons is estimated to cost millions and last for decades. FRXQWU\WRQHLJKERXULQJQDWLRQVZKLFKKDVSXWDODUJHWROORQWKHUHFHL- ving nations to accommodate them.

6RXUFH$7/$66\ULD%0,81+&5 'HFHPEHU Return of Syrian Refugees

Tigris River TURKEYEY Euphrateses RRivRiver from TURKEY Qamishli 20,314 KobaneK

HASAKAAKAA ALEPPO Mediterranean Sea from IRAQ 1,884 RAQQA Lake Assad IDLIB

LATAKIA DEIR AL-ZOUR HAMA

Fabrice Balanche and Mary Horan, July 2017 Fabrice TARTUS

Palmyra Abu Kamal from LEBANON HOMS 7,184 LEBALEBANONAANOON

RURAL DAMASCUS IRAQ

DAMASCUS CITY QUNEITRA Golan Refugee child in Syria Heights ISRAEL DERAADED SUWAYDA from EGYPT JORJORDAN Foto: Florimond Collette 286 from JORDAN 0 100 km 1,558 © 2017 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Created by The Washington © 2017 people were in need of humanitarian assistance, including IDP RETURNEES REFUGEE Province border RETURNEES ,'3VDFURVVWKHJRYHUQRUDWH'XULQJWKHÀJKWLQJ >100,000 1,001–5,000 International border Province center 50,001–100,000 < 1,000 the main public hospital in Raqqa has ceased to function, City 5,001–50,000 while the remaining few private hospitals were only parti- Nomadic area Source: UNHCR, June 29, 2017. ally operational. In response to the situation, the affected population was provided with emergency services, such as The return of refugees from neighbouring countries as well as Internally ',VSODFHG3HUVRQVKDVSXWDVWUDLQRQKXPDQLWDULDQRUJDQL]DWLRQVWRQRW GDLO\VXSSO\RIVDIHZDWHUWKURXJKZDWHUWUXFNLQJ7RZDUGV only manage their returns with countries from which they are arriving WKHHQGRIWKHÀJKWLQJWKHFLW\ZDVFRPSOHWHO\FXWRIIIURP from but also facilitate their integration into Syrian society. life-saving assistance, with basic services either partially or FRPSOHWHO\RXWRIVHUYLFH%\WKHHQGRI6HSWHPEHU Source: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Maps/Syria%20 &RQÁLFW6SRQWDQHRXVUHWXUQVSGI civilians who were trapped in Raqqa were released as ISIS lost control over the city. 'HHVFDODWLRQ]RQHV Despite the establishment of several de-escalation zones 'DPDJHGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH DFURVV WKH FRXQWU\ LQ 0D\ ÀJKWLQJ LQ QXPHURXV DUHDV In September, the al-Qaida offshoot HTS launched an at- caused further civilian deaths and injuries and the de- WDFNRQJRYHUQPHQWSRVLWLRQVLQWKHQRUWKHUQFRXQWU\VLGH struction of civilian infrastructure. In August, cross-country of Hama. Humanitarian activities were then suspended violence continued to impact civilians despite an overall re- in several locations due to the severity of the Russian duction of civilian casualties in areas where de-escalation DLUVWULNHV +XQGUHGV RI VFKRROV LQ ,GOLE DQG $OHSSR ZHUH zone agreements were in place. forced to temporarily close and health services at multiple KRVSLWDOV LQFOXGLQJ .DIU 1REO .KDQ 6KD\NXQ DQG +HLVK +HDOWKVHUYLFHVDQGGLVHDVHV were disrupted. The provision of quality health services across Syria conti- nued to suffer from the consequences of the ongoing hos- Forecast tilities resulting in disrupted health systems and facilities The humanitarian situation in Syria in the upcoming year DQGUHGXFHGTXDOLÀHGPHGLFDOVWDIIWKURXJKRXWWKH\HDU LVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHSROLWLFDOVROXWLRQWRWKHFRQÁLFW Whereas Polio is almost completely eradicated worldwide, However, even when the dust will settle on the Syrian war, and despite a mandatory vaccination campaign in Syria UHEXLOGLQJ6\ULD·VGDPDJHGFLWLHVDQGDGGUHVVLQJWKHVHYH- LQWKHFRQÁLFWKDVEURXJKWVHYHUDORXWEUHDNVRYHU re cumulative deterioration of basic infrastructure will be WKHSDVW\HDUV,QQHZFDVHVRIYDFFLQHGHULYHG IDUIURPVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGDQGKLJKO\H[SHQVLYH$IWHUHUDGL- SROLRKDYHEHHQFRQÀUPHGFRQVWLWXWLQJWKHÀUVWSROLRRXW- FDWLQJ,6,6UHEXLOGLQJ6\ULD·VLQIUDVWUXFWXUHHVWLPDWHGLQ EUHDNLQWKHFRXQWU\LQ\HDUV7KHRXWEUHDNRULJLQDWHGLQ 86WULOOLRQLVQHYHUWKHOHVVWKHÀUVWVWHSWRZDUGVHQVXULQJ 0D\DGHHQ 'HLUH]=RXU $QRXWEUHDNUHVSRQVHSODQZDV a sustainable return of many refugees and IDPs. implemented in line with internationally-agreed protocols.

&KLOGUHQDIIHFWHG 7KURXJK81,&()VXSSRUWDWHFKQLFDOZRUNLQJJURXSRQXQ- accompanied and separated children has been set-up in -DQXDU\WRFRRUGLQDWHDOOIDPLO\WUDFLQJDQGUHXQLÀFDWLRQ SURFHVVHVLQ1RUWKHUQ6\ULDVXFKFDVHVZHUHGRFX- mented in the aftermath of the Aleppo evacuation. In the ÀUVWTXDUWHURIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQVFRQÀUPHGPRUH WKDQVHYHUHYLRODWLRQVDJDLQVWFKLOGUHQLQFOXGLQJNLO- OLQJ PDLPLQJ DEGXFWLRQ DQG UHFUXLWPHQW DWWDFNV RQ schools and hospitals and denial of humanitarian access.

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