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2018-2019 Voter Analysis Report
20182019 VOTER ANALYSIS REPORT APRIL 2019 NEW YORK CITY CAMPAIGN FINANCE BOARD Board Chair Frederick P. Schaffer Board Members Gregory T. Camp Richard J. Davis Marianne Spraggins Naomi B. Zauderer Amy M. Loprest Executive Director Roberta Maria Baldini Assistant Executive Director for Campaign Finance Administration Kitty Chan Chief of Staff Daniel Cho Assistant Executive Director for Candidate Guidance and Policy Eric Friedman Assistant Executive Director for Public Affairs Hillary Weisman General Counsel THE VOTER ASSISTANCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE VAAC Chair Naomi B. Zauderer Members Daniele Gerard Joan P. Gibbs Okwudiri Onyedum Arnaldo Segarra Mazeda Akter Uddin Jumaane Williams New York City Public Advocate (Ex-Officio) Michael Ryan Executive Director, New York City Board of Elections (Ex-Officio) The VAAC advises the CFB on voter engagement and recommends legislative and administrative changes to improve NYC elections. 2018–2019 VOTER ANALYSIS REPORT TEAM Lead Editor Gina Chung, Production Editor Lead Writer and Data Analyst Katherine Garrity, Policy and Data Research Analyst Design and Layout Winnie Ng, Art Director Jennifer Sepso, Designer Maps Jaime Anno, Data Manager WELCOME FROM THE VOTER ASSISTANCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE In this report, we take a look back at the past year and the accomplishments and challenges we experienced in our efforts to engage New Yorkers in their elections. Most excitingly, voter turnout and registration rates among New Yorkers rose significantly in 2018 for the first time since 2002, with voters turning out in record- breaking numbers for one of the most dramatic midterm elections in recent memory. Below is a list of our top findings, which we discuss in detail in this report: 1. -
Black Box Voting Ballot Tampering in the 21St Century
This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Black Box Voting — © 2004 Bev Harris Rights reserved to Talion Publishing/ Black Box Voting ISBN 1-890916-90-0. You can purchase copies of this book at www.Amazon.com. Black Box Voting Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century By Bev Harris Talion Publishing / Black Box Voting This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Contents © 2004 by Bev Harris ISBN 1-890916-90-0 Jan. 2004 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form whatsoever except as provided for by U.S. copyright law. For information on this book and the investigation into the voting machine industry, please go to: www.blackboxvoting.org Black Box Voting 330 SW 43rd St PMB K-547 • Renton, WA • 98055 Fax: 425-228-3965 • [email protected] • Tel. 425-228-7131 This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Black Box Voting © 2004 Bev Harris • ISBN 1-890916-90-0 Dedication First of all, thank you Lord. I dedicate this work to my husband, Sonny, my rock and my mentor, who tolerated being ignored and bored and galled by this thing every day for a year, and without fail, stood fast with affection and support and encouragement. He must be nuts. And to my father, who fought and took a hit in Germany, who lived through Hitler and saw first-hand what can happen when a country gets suckered out of democracy. And to my sweet mother, whose an- cestors hosted a stop on the Underground Railroad, who gets that disapproving look on her face when people don’t do the right thing. -
A Decline in Ticket Splitting and the Increasing Salience of Party Labels
A Decline in Ticket Splitting and The Increasing Salience of Party Labels David C. Kimball University of Missouri-St. Louis Department of Political Science St. Louis, MO 63121-4499 [email protected] forthcoming in Models of Voting in Presidential Elections: The 2000 Elections, Herbert F. Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox, eds. Stanford University Press. Thanks to Laura Arnold, Brady Baybeck, Barry Burden, Paul Goren, Tim Johnson, Bryan Marshall, Rich Pacelle, Rich Timpone, Herb Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox for comments. The voice of the people is but an echo chamber. The output of an echo chamber bears an inevitable and invariable relation to the input. As candidates and parties clamor for attention and vie for popular support, the people's verdict can be no more than a selective reflection from among the alternatives and outlooks presented to them. (Key 1966, p. 2) Split party control of the executive and legislative branches has been a defining feature of American national politics for more than thirty years, the longest period of frequent divided government in American history. Even when voters failed to produce a divided national government in the 2000 elections, the party defection of a lone U.S. senator (former Republican James Jeffords of Vermont) created yet another divided national government. In addition, the extremely close competitive balance between the two major parties means that ticket splitters often determine which party controls each branch of government. These features of American politics have stimulated a lot of theorizing about the causes of split-ticket voting. In recent years, the presence of divided government and relatively high levels of split ticket voting are commonly cited as evidence of an electorate that has moved beyond party labels (Wattenberg 1998). -
Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter Behavior
Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter Behavior Ned Augenblick and Scott Nicholson August 20, 2015 Abstract In this paper, we examine the effect of “choice fatigue” on decision making. We exploit a natural experiment in which voters face the same contest at different ballot positions due to differences in the number of local issues on their ballot. Facing more decisions before a given contest significantly increases the tendency to abstain or rely on decision shortcuts, such as voting for the status quo or the first listed candidate. We estimate that, without choice fatigue, abstentions would decrease by 8%, and 6% of the propositions in our dataset would have passed rather than failed. Keywords: Contextual Choice, Choice Fatigue, Voter Participation JEL Classification Numbers: D3, D72 Contact Address: 545 Student Services Builiding #1900, Berkeley, CA 94720, contact email: [email protected]. The authors are grateful to Muriel Niederle, Roger Noll, Luigi Pistaferri, Caro- line Hoxby and B. Douglas Bernheim for advising and many helpful comments. Many thanks also to Oren Ahoobim, Emeric Henry, Benjamin Ho, Sheena Iyengar, Simon Jackman, Shachar Kariv, Jonathan Levav, Marc Meredith, and Annika Todd and seminar participants at the Stanford Department of Economics, Stan- ford Department of Political Science, The New Economic School (Moscow), the ITAM School of Business and the Midwest Political Science Association 2008 meetings for suggestions and helpful comments. Cathy Glaser and her staff at the San Diego Registrar of Voters were especially helpful in providing data and an- swers to many questions. This research was funded by the George P. Shultz Fund at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. -
Youth Voter Participation
Youth Voter Participation Youth Voter Participation Involving Today’s Young in Tomorrow’s Democracy Copyright © International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) 1999 All rights reserved. Applications for permission to reproduce all or any part of this publication should be made to: Publications Officer, International IDEA, S-103 34 Stockholm, Sweden. International IDEA encourages dissemination of its work and will respond promptly to requests for permission for reproduction or translation. This is an International IDEA publication. International IDEA’s publications are not a reflection of specific national or political interests. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of International IDEA’s Board or Council members. Art Direction and Design: Eduard âehovin, Slovenia Illustration: Ana Ko‰ir Pre-press: Studio Signum, Slovenia Printed and bound by: Bröderna Carlssons Boktryckeri AB, Varberg ISBN: 91-89098-31-5 Table of Contents FOREWORD 7 OVERVIEW 9 Structure of the Report 9 Definition of “Youth” 9 Acknowledgements 10 Part I WHY YOUNG PEOPLE SHOULD VOTE 11 A. Electoral Abstention as a Problem of Democracy 13 B. Why Participation of Young People is Important 13 Part II ASSESSING AND ANALYSING YOUTH TURNOUT 15 A. Measuring Turnout 17 1. Official Registers 17 2. Surveys 18 B. Youth Turnout in National Parliamentary Elections 21 1. Data Sources 21 2. The Relationship Between Age and Turnout 24 3. Cross-National Differences in Youth Turnout 27 4. Comparing First-Time and More Experienced Young Voters 28 5. Factors that May Increase Turnout 30 C. Reasons for Low Turnout and Non-Voting 31 1. Macro-Level Factors 31 2. -
IN the UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT for the MIDDLE DISTRICT of NORTH CAROLINA LEAGUE of WOMEN VOTERS of NORTH CAROLINA, Et Al
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF NORTH CAROLINA, et al., Plaintiffs, Civil Action No. 1:13-CV-660 RULE 26(A)(2)(B) EXPERT v. REPORT AND DECLARATION OF THEODORE T. ALLEN, PhD THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA, et al., Defendants. I. INTRODUCTION 1. I have been retained by Plaintiffs’ Counsel as an expert witness in the above- captioned case. Plaintiffs’ Counsel requested that I offer my opinions as to: (1) whether HB 589, if it had been in effect in the most recent general election in North Carolina, would have caused longer lines at polling places and longer average waiting times to vote; and (2) the possible effect of such waiting times, if any, on voter turnout. As explained below, I conclude that eliminating seven days of early voting before the 2012 election would have caused waiting times to vote on Election Day in North Carolina to increase substantially, from a low-end estimate of an average of 27 minutes, to a worst-case scenario of an average of 180 minutes of waiting. Moreover, I further conclude that, as a result of longer lines, a significant number of voters would have been deterred from voting on Election Day in 2012 (with a conservative estimate of several thousand). Finally, I conclude that, barring some additional changes to the law or to the resources allocated to polling places, HB 589’s reductions to early voting are likely to result in longer average waiting times to vote in future elections. -
E-Voting As the Magic Ballot?
E-Voting as the Magic Ballot? The impact of Internet voting on turnout in European Parliamentary elections Pippa Norris John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] www.pippanorris.com Synopsis: In post-industrial societies the use of the Internet for multiple functions in commerce and government has generated debate about whether the introduction of e-voting could reduce the costs of casting a ballot and therefore promote electoral participation. The argument developed in this paper makes three claims: first, the evidence from the distribution of Internet access in the 15 EU member states confirms that, at least in the short-term, the impact of introducing e-voting into elections to the European parliament could probably deepen and worsen the existing socioeconomic ‘voting gap’. Second, even if we assume that use of the Internet gradually ‘normalizes’ across the European population, there are still good reasons to be skeptical about any potential revolutionary benefits from e-voting on turnout. E-voting at home or work can be seen as analogous to the use of voting facilities exemplified by postal ballots, and the evidence suggests that the use of such facilities has had little or no impact on turnout. Instead, it is argued, the most important role of information technology in democracy lies, in its potential capacity to strengthen the public sphere. As such the debate about e-voting may well prove largely irrelevant to the primary political impact of the Internet on democracy within the European Union. Paper for the Workshop on ‘E-voting and the European Parliamentary Elections’ Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Villa La Fonte, EUI 10-11th May 2002. -
The Many Faces of Strategic Voting
Revised Pages The Many Faces of Strategic Voting Strategic voting is classically defined as voting for one’s second pre- ferred option to prevent one’s least preferred option from winning when one’s first preference has no chance. Voters want their votes to be effective, and casting a ballot that will have no influence on an election is undesirable. Thus, some voters cast strategic ballots when they decide that doing so is useful. This edited volume includes case studies of strategic voting behavior in Israel, Germany, Japan, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, Canada, and the United Kingdom, providing a conceptual framework for understanding strategic voting behavior in all types of electoral systems. The classic definition explicitly considers strategic voting in a single race with at least three candidates and a single winner. This situation is more com- mon in electoral systems that have single- member districts that employ plurality or majoritarian electoral rules and have multiparty systems. Indeed, much of the literature on strategic voting to date has considered elections in Canada and the United Kingdom. This book contributes to a more general understanding of strategic voting behavior by tak- ing into account a wide variety of institutional contexts, such as single transferable vote rules, proportional representation, two- round elec- tions, and mixed electoral systems. Laura B. Stephenson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario. John Aldrich is Pfizer- Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. André Blais is Professor of Political Science at the Université de Montréal. Revised Pages Revised Pages THE MANY FACES OF STRATEGIC VOTING Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World Edited by Laura B. -
The Party Ticket States
Voting Viva Voce UNLOCKING THE SOCIAL LOGIC OF PAST POLITICS How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States DONALD A. DEBATS sociallogic.iath.virginia.edu How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States | Donald A. DeBats 1 Public Voting How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States by The alternative to oral voting was the party-produced ticket system that slowly Donald A. DeBats, PhD came to dominate the American political landscape. In states not using viva voce voting, political parties produced their preferred list of candidates and made Residential Fellow, Virginia Foundation for that list available to voters as a printed “ticket” distributed at each polling the Humanities, place on Election Day. Before Election Day, facsimiles of party tickets appeared University of Virginia in the party-run newspapers. Increasingly often, tickets were mailed to likely Head, American Studies, supporters to remind them of the party’s candidates and how to vote when Flinders University, Australia they came to the polls. The voter came forward from the throng and joined a line or ascended a platform where he was publicly and officially identified, just as in a viva voce election. But instead of reading or reciting a list of names he held out the party-produced Cover and opposite These three Republican Party tickets are from the years of the Civil War and reflect the Party’s rise in the states of the Old Northwest and the far West. All three tickets are brightly colored and are strongly associated with the preservation of the Union. -
Demographic Disparities Using Ranked-Choice Voting? Ranking Difficulty, Under-Voting, and the 2020 Democratic Primary
Politics and Governance (ISSN: 2183–2463) 2021, Volume 9, Issue 2, Pages 293–305 DOI: 10.17645/pag.v9i2.3913 Article Demographic Disparities Using Ranked‐Choice Voting? Ranking Difficulty, Under‐Voting, and the 2020 Democratic Primary Joseph A. Coll Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52246, USA; E‐Mail: joseph‐[email protected] Submitted: 12 December 2020 | Accepted: 1 March 2021 | Published: 15 June 2021 Abstract Ranked choice voting (RCV) has become increasingly popular in recent years, as more jurisdictions in the US adopt the voting system for local, state, and federal elections. Though previous studies have found potential benefits of RCV, some evidence suggests ranking multiple candidates instead of choosing one most preferred candidate may be difficult, with potential demographic disparities linked to age, gender, or racial or ethnic identity. Further, these difficulties have been assumed to cause individuals to improperly fill out RCV ballots, such as ranking too many or not enough candidates. This study seeks to answer three interrelated questions: 1) Which demographic groups find it difficult to rank candidates in RCV elections? 2) Who is more likely to cast under‐voted ballots (not ranking all candidates)? 3) Is there a relationship between finding RCV voting difficult and the likelihood of casting an under‐voted ballot? Using unique national survey data of 2020 Democratic primary candidate preferences, the results indicate most respondents find ranking candidates easy, but older, less interested, and more ideologically conservative individuals find it more difficult. In a hypothetical ranking of primary candidates, 12% of respondents under‐voted (did not rank all options). -
"I Voted": Examining the Impact of Compulsory Voting on Voter Turnout Nina A
Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CMC Senior Theses CMC Student Scholarship 2016 "I Voted": Examining the Impact of Compulsory Voting on Voter Turnout Nina A. Kamath Claremont McKenna College Recommended Citation Kamath, Nina A., ""I Voted": Examining the Impact of Compulsory Voting on Voter Turnout" (2016). CMC Senior Theses. Paper 1286. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1286 This Open Access Senior Thesis is brought to you by Scholarship@Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in this collection by an authorized administrator. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLAREMONT MCKENNA COLLEGE “I VOTED”: EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF COMPULSORY VOTING ON VOTER TURNOUT SUBMITTED TO Professor Manfred Keil AND Professor Eric Helland AND Dean Peter Uvin By Nina Kamath For Senior Thesis Fall 2015 November 30, 2015 Department of Economics ii iii Abstract Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 percent in the past four presidential elections. iv Acknowledgements First, I want to thank my parents for their unconditional love, support, and encouragement. I would also like to thank Professor Manfred Keil, Associate Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College, for his valuable guidance and support in completing this senior thesis. -
Voters' Evaluations of Electronic Voting Systems
American Politics Research Volume 36 Number 4 July 2008 580-611 © 2008 Sage Publications Voters’ Evaluations of 10.1177/1532673X08316667 http://apr.sagepub.com hosted at Electronic Voting Systems http://online.sagepub.com Results From a Usability Field Study Paul S. Herrnson University of Maryland Richard G. Niemi University of Rochester Michael J. Hanmer University of Maryland Peter L. Francia East Carolina University Benjamin B. Bederson University of Maryland Frederick G. Conrad University of Michigan, University of Maryland Michael W. Traugott University of Michigan Electronic voting systems were developed, in part, to make voting easier and to boost voters’ confidence in the election process. Using three new approaches to studying electronic voting systems—focusing on a large-scale field study of the usability of a representative set of systems—we demonstrate that voters view these systems favorably but that design differences have a substantial impact on voters’ satisfaction with the voting process and on the need to request help. Factors associated with the digital divide played only a small role with respect to overall satisfaction but they were strongly associated with feeling the need for help. Results suggest numerous possible improvements in electronic voting systems as well as the need for continued analysis that assesses specific char- acteristics of both optical scan and direct recording electronic systems. Keywords: election reform; voting technology; public opinion; usability; voting machines olitical scientists’ interest in voting systems and ballots may seem rela- Ptively recent but research on these topics goes back to the beginning of the profession and includes a long line of work on ballot content (Allen, 580 Downloaded from apr.sagepub.com by guest on December 9, 2015 Herrnson et al.