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Three Decades of Inflation Targeting

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Three Decades of Inflation Targeting No. 314 NBP Working Paper NBP Working Paper No. 314 Three decades of inflation targeting Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała, Witold Grostal, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska, Elżbieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek, Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, Grzegorz Wesołowski, Piotr Żuk NBP Working Paper No. 314 Three decades of infl ation targeting Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała, Witold Grostal, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska, Elżbieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek, Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, Grzegorz Wesołowski, Piotr Żuk Narodowy Bank Polski Warsaw 2019 Edited by: Joanna Niedźwiedzińska Authors’ team: Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała – Chapter 3 Economic Analysis Department, Narodowy Bank Polski Witold Grostal – Introduction, Chapter 1, Chapter 4 Economic Analysis Department, Narodowy Bank Polski Joanna Niedźwiedzińska – Introduction, Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 4 Economic Analysis Department, Narodowy Bank Polski Elżbieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek – Chapter 2 Economic Analysis Department, Narodowy Bank Polski Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska – Chapter 3 Institute of International Economics, University of Lodz Grzegorz Wesołowski – Chapter 2 Economic Research Department, Narodowy Bank Polski Piotr Żuk – Chapter 2, Chapter 3 Economic Analysis Department, Narodowy Bank Polski This is a translation of the NBP publication: Ewolucja strategii celu infl acyjnego w wybranych krajach – reviewed and updated. The cut-off date for the analysis is 2018. The authors would like to thank Wojciech Bogdanowicz, Dawid Durejko, Piotr Szczerba and Anna Wojtyniak for excellent research assistance. This paper represents the opinions of the author. It is not meant to represent the position of the NBP. Any errors and omissions are the fault of the author. Published by: Narodowy Bank Polski Education & Publishing Department ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21 00-919 Warszawa, Poland www.nbp.pl ISSN 2084-624X © Copyright Narodowy Bank Polski 2019 Contents Abstract 6 Introduction 7 1. Infl ation targeting as a monetary policy framework 13 1.1. Rationale for adopting an infl ation targeting regime 13 1.1.1. Historical perspective on an infl ation targeting regime 13 1.1.2. Expansion of infl ation targeting as a monetary policy framework 18 1.2. Main features of an infl ation targeting framework 20 1.2.1. Key elements of infl ation targeting 21 1.2.2. Preconditions for the eff ectiveness of infl ation targeting 24 1.3. Infl ation targeting in central banks’ practice 29 1.3.1. Recognising price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy 29 1.3.2. Public announcement of a numerical target for infl ation 30 1.3.3. Transparency and democratic accountability 34 1.3.4. Composition of decision-making bodies 36 1.3.5. Infl ation targeting and the exchange rate regime 39 2. Major changes to an infl ation targeting framework 42 2.1. Increasing monetary policy transparency 43 2.2. Including fi nancial stability considerations in the monetary policy framework 51 2.2.1. Discussion on the role of asset prices in monetary policy before the crisis 51 2.2.2. Lessons learnt on the role of asset prices in monetary policy 54 2.3. Extending the scope of monetary policy instruments 62 2.3.1. Conventional monetary policy instruments 62 2.3.2. Unconventional monetary policy instruments 64 3. Selected modifi cations of an infl ation targeting framework 73 3.1. Euro area – setting the reference value for M3 growth 75 3.1.1. Monetary policy strategy of the euro area 75 3.1.2. The concept of the reference value for M3 growth in the euro area 77 3.1.3. Reference value and price stability in the euro area 81 3.1.4. The role of money in the ECB strategy and communication issues 83 3.1.5. Monetary analysis and identifi cation of asset price bubbles in the euro area 85 3.1.6. Conclusions from the experiences of the ECB 87 NBP Working Paper No. 314 3 3.2. New Zealand – using MCI in the conduct of monetary policy 89 3.2.1. Various defi nitions of the MCI 89 3.2.2. Reasons for adopting the MCI as an operational target in New Zealand 92 3.2.3. Eff ects of using the MCI as an operational target in New Zealand 94 3.2.4. Conclusions from the experiences of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 98 3.3. Hungary – confl icts between infl ation target and exchange rate target 99 3.3.1. Implementation of the exchange rate target under infl ation targeting 99 3.3.2. Introduction of dual target for infl ation and exchange rate in Hungary 100 3.3.3. Implementation of the monetary policy strategy in 2001–2008 in Hungary 102 3.3.4. Exchange rate target vs. equilibrium rate in Hungary 109 3.3.5. Conclusions from the experiences of the National Bank of Hungary 110 3.4. Turkey – counteracting excessive capital infl ows and credit expansion 111 3.4.1. Problems related to infl ows of short-term capital in Turkey 111 3.4.2. Eff ects of the measures applied by the Bank of Turkey 117 3.4.3. Conclusions from the experiences of the Bank of Turkey 122 3.5. Czech Republic – introducing the target for core infl ation 124 3.5.1. Using core infl ation in the infl ation target defi nition 124 3.5.2. Introducing an infl ation targeting strategy in the Czech Republic 128 3.5.3. Infl ation targeting in 1998-2001 in the Czech Republic 131 3.5.4. Conclusions from the experiences of the Czech National Bank 138 3.6. Sweden – changing the defi nition of the infl ation target 140 3.6.1. The role of the band for deviations from the infl ation target 140 3.6.2. Reasons behind the decision to remove the band in Sweden 141 3.6.3. Infl ation target in communication policy of the Bank of Sweden 146 3.6.4. Conclusions from the experiences of the Bank of Sweden 149 3.7. Korea – changes in the defi nition of infl ation target 150 3.7.1. Modifying the infl ation target in Korea 150 3.7.2. Frequent changes of the target and infl ation developments in Korea 156 3.7.3. Conclusions from the experiences of the Bank of Korea 160 4 Narodowy Bank Polski 3.8. United Kingdom – stimulating nominal GDP growth 161 3.8.1. Infl ation targeting in the United Kingdom 161 3.8.2. Banking crisis in the United Kingdom 163 3.8.3. The Bank of England response to the fi nancial crisis 166 3.8.4. Communication of the Bank of England in the period of elevated infl ation 168 3.8.5. Conclusions from the experiences of the Bank of England 171 3.9. Iceland – leaning against the wind and stabilisation of exchange rate 172 3.9.1. Infl ation targeting in Iceland 172 3.9.2. The fi nancial crisis of 2008 and stabilisation measures applied in Iceland 174 3.9.3. Conclusions from the experiences of the Bank of Iceland 180 4. Evolution of an infl ation targeting framework in Poland 182 4.1. Introduction of infl ation targeting in Poland 182 4.2. Main modifi cations to the NBP infl ation targeting framework 184 4.2.1. Increasing the range of publications related to monetary policy 185 4.2.2. Drawing attention to fi nancial stability issues in monetary policy 186 4.2.3. Emphasising the readiness to conduct foreign exchange interventions 188 4.2.4. Highlighting the role of fl exibility in monetary policy 188 4.2.5. Seeing macroprudential policy as a new instrument of stabilisation policy 189 Literature 192 Annex 221 Key aspects of infl ation targeting strategy 221 Decision–making process 228 Communication activities 232 List of boxes 239 NBP Working Paper No. 314 5 Abstract Abstract Over the last three decades, inflation targeting has become one of the most widespread monetary policy frameworks used in economies striving to conduct independent monetary policy. However, the recent global financial crisis provoked criticism of the way monetary policies had been conducted, including under an inflation targeting strategy, and called for some adjustments to the monetary policy regimes. Against this background, the report is aimed at showing that introducing changes to inflation targeting has been an ongoing process. This is illustrated by discussing the key modifications that have been applied to the inflation targeting framework over the last decades, as well as by pointing to some less commonly reviewed adjustments of the strategy as practiced by some central banks in the past. While quite a number of more recent studies on inflation targeting emphasise lessons learnt from the global financial crisis, this report looks at the full 30 years of experiences with the regime and covers rather diversified array of issues relevant for understanding the strategy, reaching also for more distant examples of its modifications. Importantly, the focus is put on strategic elements of the framework, and consequently the topics related to macroprudential policy and monetary policy instruments are discussed rather briefly. JEL Codes: E31, E52, E58, E61. Key words: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Policy Design. 6 Narodowy Bank Polski Introduction Introduction Witold Grostal, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska Over the last 30 years, inflation targeting (IT) has become one of the most widespread monetary policy frameworks used in economies striving to conduct independent monetary policy.1 Whereas the key features of the strategy have remained broadly unchanged since its beginnings, some aspects of the regime have evolved. In the first decades of its implementation the process of adjusting the strategy was, to a great extent, driven by the accumulation of experiences made by inflation targeters with various modifications of the framework. This has helped to develop what can be called a fully-fledged inflation targeting regime that offered an efficient set-up for ensuing price stability across quite a heterogenous group of countries.
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