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Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance

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Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance Chairman and CEO of AeroVironment briefs Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert on capabilities and potential applications of Global Observer, a long-range, long-duration UAV, Simi Valley, California, November 2014 (U.S. Navy/Peter D. Lawlor) Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance By T.X. Hammes he convergence of dramatic ties—extending even to the individual. internal combustion engines, radio, improvements in the fields of This new diffusion of power has major radar, and weapons. In 1914, at the T robotics, artificial intelligence, implications for the conduct of warfare, beginning of World War I, battleships materials, additive manufacturing, and not the least of which are the major were considered the decisive weapon for nanoenergetics is dramatically chang- hazards or opportunities that it presents fleet engagements, and the size of the ing the character of conflict in all to medium and even small powers. The battleship fleet was seen as a reasonable domains. This convergence is creating a outcome will depend on the paths they proxy for a navy’s strength. The war’s massive increase in capabilities available choose. single major fleet action, the Battle of to increasingly smaller political enti- Jutland, seemed to prove these ideas Historical Case correct. Accordingly, during the inter- Fortunately, this level of technological war period, battleships received the change and convergence is not unprec- lion’s share of naval investments. Navies Dr. T.X. Hammes is a Distinguished Research edented. From 1914 to 1939, there took advantage of rapid technologi- Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, at the were technological breakthroughs in cal gains to dramatically improve the National Defense University. metallurgy, explosives, steam turbines, capabilities of the battleship. Displace- 76 Features / Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance JFQ 81, 2nd Quarter 2016 ment almost tripled, from the 27,000 understanding when the character of At the same time, AM is dramatically tons of the pre–World War I U.S. New naval warfare changed and naval aviation increasing the complexity of the objects York-class to the 71,660 tons of Japan’s capabilities exceeded those of the battle it can produce while simultaneously Yamato-class. The largest main bat- line. Interestingly, there was also relatively improving speed and precision. Recent teries grew from 14-inch to 18-inch little investment in submarines, the other technological developments indicate guns with double the range. Secondary powerful newcomer to naval battle. industry will be able to increase 3D print- batteries were improved, radar was Submarines progressed from a fragile but ing speeds up to 100 times, with a goal of installed, speed increased from 21 to 33 deadly weapon system in World War I to 1,000 times—all while providing higher knots for U.S. fast battleships, cruising one that almost defeated Britain and did quality than current methods.3 In January range more than doubled, and armor destroy Japanese industry in World War 2015, Voxel8 revealed a new printer— improved. Yet none of these advances II. It is essential to remember that institu- with a cost of $8,999—that printed a changed the fundamental capabilities tional biases can keep investment focused complete, operational unmanned aerial of the battleship; they simply provided on the dominant technology even as vehicle (UAV) with electronics and incremental improvement on existing multiple emergent technologies clearly engine included.4 In February 2015, strengths. This is typical of mature tech- challenge it. Australian researchers printed a jet en- nology—even massive investment leads gine.5 Furthermore, the very nature of to only incremental improvement. Evolving Technologies AM reduces the price of parts because In contrast, naval aviation was in its We are in an area of rapidly evolving there is little or no waste. With subtrac- infancy in 1914. Aircraft were slow, technologies that, when combined, may tive (or traditional) machining, one starts short-legged, lightly armed, and well radically alter the way we fight. with a block of metal and cuts it to the used primarily for reconnaissance. Air This article is much too short to even correct form, wasting a great deal of combat was primitive; one early attempt begin to explore the explosion of new material. With AM, material wastage is involved a grappling hook. Military avi- technologies that are daily changing near zero; thus it may be cheaper to make ation made great strides in tactics, tech- our lives. But it will take a look at a few a part from titanium using AM than nology, and operational concepts during that will have short-term effects on how from steel using traditional machining. the war. Yet after the war, aviation, wars are fought. This article also con- Only two decades old, AM is starting to particularly naval aviation, remained siders how they may come together to encroach on a wide range of traditional auxiliary and was funded accordingly. change conflict. manufacturing. The American and British governments Additive Manufacturing. In the last Nanotechnology. Another field that focused most of even this limited invest- few years, additive manufacturing (AM), is advancing rapidly in many areas is ment on heavy bombers. Despite this also known as 3D printing, has gone nanotechnology. Two of these technolo- neglect, by 1941 carrier aviation in the from an interesting hobby to an industry gies are of particular interest. The first form of fighters, dive bombers, and producing a wide range of products from is nanoenergetics or nanoexplosives. As torpedo bombers dominated Pacific an ever-growing list of materials. The early as 2002, nanoexplosives generated naval warfare. Most of the advances global explosion of AM means it is virtu- twice the power of conventional explo- in aircraft design and production that ally impossible to provide an up-to-date sives.6 Since research in this field is “Close applied to naval aviation were developed list of materials that can be printed, but a Hold,” it is difficult to say what, if any, for civilian uses. Aircraft production was recent Top 10 list includes metals such as progress has been made since that point. a wide-ranging and highly competitive stainless steel, bronze, gold, nickel steel, However, even if 2 times is as good as it business that led to these rapid tech- aluminum, and titanium; carbon fiber gets, a 100 percent increase in destruc- nological advances. Relatively modest and nanotubes; stem cells; ceramics; and tive power for the same size weapon is a investment in these new technologies food.1 In addition to this wide range of massive increase. Much smaller platforms resulted in massive increases in aircraft materials, AM is progressing from a niche will carry greater destructive power. The capability. As a result, during World capability that produces prototypes to a second area is that of nanomaterials. This War II, aircraft—the small, swift, and manufacturing industry capable of pro- field has not advanced as far as nanoener- plentiful weapons of naval forces—could ducing products in large quantities. The getics, but the potential for nanocarbon swarm and destroy the less numerous United Parcel Service (UPS) has created tubes to dramatically reduce the weight but powerful battleships. By mid- a factory with 100 printers.2 The current needed for structural strength will have 1942, the battleships were reduced to plant requires one operator per 8-hour significant implications for increasing the expensive antiaircraft and naval gunfire shift and works 24/7. It accepts orders, range of UAVs. In a related field, numer- platforms. prices them, and then prints and ships ous firms are applying nanomaterials to It is important to note, however, them from an adjacent UPS shipping batteries and increasing their storage that the transition took nearly 20 years. facility the same day. UPS has plans to in- capacity.7 In fact, a recent accidental Thus the early investment in battle- crease the plant to 1,000 printers in order discovery may triple battery power stor- ships was correct. The failure lay in not to support major production runs. age and increase battery life by a factor of JFQ 81, 2nd Quarter 2016 Hammes 77 Marines with Combat Logistics Battalion 5 return after learning about downward thrust of Kaman K1200 (“K-MAX”) unmanned helicopter during initial testing in Helmand Province, Afghanistan (U.S. Marine Corps/Lisa Tourtelot) four.8 At the University of California, San other cube satellite companies achieved operations.13 For very long endurance, Diego, researchers have found a cheap low-cost launch by serving as ballast on several organizations are pursuing solar- way to coat products with a super-thin, larger rockets. Today, New Zealand’s powered UAVs.14 nonmetal material that manipulates light Rocket Lab is proposing to conduct Artificial Intelligence. Two areas of and radar waves.9 These improvements in weekly launches specifically for cube artificial intelligence (AI) are of particular energy storage, materials, and explosives satellites to allow rapid and inexpensive importance in the evolution of small, will lead to increases in range, payload, launch. Although Rocket Lab has not yet smart, and cheap weapons: navigation and stealth for a wide variety of vehicles, opened its space port, numerous firms and target identification. The Global including inexpensive UAVs. have signed up for its services.11 Positioning System (GPS) has proven Space-Like Capabilities. The addi- Other firms are working on systems satisfactory for basic autonomous UAV tion of cheap, persistent space-based and that can duplicate the communications applications such as the unmanned air-breathing surveillance will provide and surveillance functions provided K-MAX logistics helicopter used by the the information necessary to employ by satellites. Google’s Project Loon is Marine Corps in Afghanistan.15 However, these new technologies.
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